The American Nuclear Society is monitoring the situation. Our current information indicates that hostilities in the Chernobyl area have not resulted in any additional radiological risk to the region. https://t.co/j4K8VXHf4I pic.twitter.com/zCnIjtPuYx
— American Nuclear Society (@ANS_org) February 24, 2022
I’m from the Duck&Cover generation, certain words will always spike my heart rate…
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the so-called Chernobyl exclusion zone and all the structures of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant are under the control of Russian armed groups https://t.co/2c2IBrE0fS pic.twitter.com/q5BDKesSIm
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 25, 2022
For those imagining more lurid scenarios, the dangerous material lies deep under the concreted-in reactor in a solid radioactive mass. Hard to reach, and explosions are not effective in dispersing that kind of material.
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) February 24, 2022
The failed Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine as well as the nation’s 15 operating reactors are safe and secure amid Russia’s invasion, according to nuclear experts and the International Atomic Energy Agency, an arm of the UN. https://t.co/WyD7KddlNs
— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 25, 2022
… “The only real issue is if a nearby target got hit and caused some collateral damage,” said Edwin Lyman, a reactor expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a private group in Cambridge, Mass. “I don’t see this as an imminent radiological threat. I don’t think Russia would deliberately target a plant.”…
“There’s some risk of a direct hit,” said R. Scott Kemp, a professor of nuclear science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But I imagine they’ll do everything possible to avoid that because they don’t want to deal with the fallout.”
The bigger threat, Dr. Kemp said, is the degradation of Ukraine’s power grid, which could throw nuclear power plants offline and result in cascading blackouts…
According to the international atomic agency, Ukraine receives a bit more than half of its electricity from its reactors — an unusually high fraction.
Two of Ukraine’s four operational nuclear sites are in its western region — far from Russia’s main invasion routes and presumably out of harm’s way. The other two are in the southern region, much closer to the ongoing military strikes.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — the largest of Ukraine’s atomic plants — houses six separate reactors. It sits on the Dnieper River roughly 100 miles north of Crimea. Russia annexed the peninsular part of southern Ukraine in 2014, and the breakaway region serves as a staging area for Russian troops as well as a main invasion route.
Recently, the World Nuclear Association, an industry trade group based in London, reported that Energoatom, the Ukrainian state-owned nuclear power firm, had detailed some of the rules meant to enhance the safety and security of its nuclear plants in wartime.
The group said that early this month, as Russia built up its forces around Ukraine, Petro Kotin, the acting president of Energoatom, described how a bombing would prompt a nuclear plant to shut down and said that its operators would unload its radioactive fuel “until the threat is eliminated.”…
Explainer: Why Russia and Ukraine are fighting for Chernobyl disaster site https://t.co/HSyh7Zfq0p pic.twitter.com/h9hRxJowXn
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 25, 2022
… But why would anyone want an inoperative power plant surrounded by miles of radioactive land?
The answer is geography: Chernobyl sits on the shortest route from Belarus to Kyiv, Ukrainian’s capital, and so runs along a logical line of attack for the Russian forces invading Ukraine.
In seizing Chernobyl, Western military analysts said Russia was simply using the fastest invasion route from Belarus, an ally of Moscow and a staging ground for Russian troops, to Kyiv.
“It was the quickest way from A to B,” said James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.
Jack Keane, a former chief of the U.S. Army staff, said Chernobyl “doesn’t have any military significance” but sits on the shortest route from Belarus to Kyiv, the target of a Russian “decapitation” strategy to oust the Ukrainian government.
Keane called the route one of four “axes” Russian forces used to invade Ukraine, including a second vector from Belarus, an advance south into the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, and a push north out of Russian-controlled Crimea to the city of Kherson…
yuri, good news, you’re going to chernobyl for mother russia.
cool, dope shit, thanks dude.
— World Famous Art Thief (@CalmSporting) February 25, 2022
White House requests release of Chernobyl workers, accusing Russian forces of ‘hostage-taking’ https://t.co/JOlfHN278z
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 25, 2022
Everything is interconnected:
… The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry warned Thursday that the Russian capture of the plant “may cause another ecological disaster,” if the conflict continued.
“Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also tweeted Thursday. “This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe.”
In a further twist, the White House expressed its outrage over “credible” reports that Russian forces were holding the staff of the Chernobyl nuclear facilities hostage.
“We are outraged by credible reports that Russian soldiers are currently holding the staff of the Chernobyl facilities hostage. This unlawful and dangerous hostage-taking, which could upend the routine civil service efforts required to maintain and protect the nuclear waste facilities, is obviously incredibly alarming and greatly concerning,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a Thursday news briefing. “We condemn it, and we request their release.”
Konashenkov, the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, did not address reports of hostages early Friday but said the workers were still operating the plant. “The safety of power units is ensured together with the staff of the Ukrainian security battalion,” he said, adding that “the radiation background is normal.”
The Chernobyl plant decommissioning team had been operating a scaled-back “downtime” service since Feb. 15 because of an outbreak of coronavirus cases among staff, its official website said.
“Until at least 27 February 2022, the operational staff only, ensuring nuclear and radiation safety will remain working on-site on a regular operating schedule,” it announced earlier this month…
mdblanche
It’s okay, I wasn’t planning on sleeping tonight anyway.
NotMax
And to think it was just the other day I was scoffed at for suggesting this scenario.
/CassandraMax
VOR
The Chernobyl New Safe Containment structure was a >US$1B mega project which took years to design and build. Damage would probably be difficult and costly to repair. Let’s hope sanity prevails and both armies treat that area as a no fire zone.
HumboldtBlue
If you need a smile:
Fuck you Ted.
Origuy
phdesmond
i worry about Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and i just figured out why. my father died two months after Salvador Allende was killed. the leaders of the putsch claimed that he had killed himself, but when i visited dad in the hospital and discussed Chile, we agreed that the insurrectionists had killed him and that the junta’s claim was propaganda.
be well, Volodymyr.
Steeplejack
@Origuy:
Note: satire account.
HumboldtBlue
In the midst of the madness there are still helpers to be found and I was taught to look for the helpers.
Origuy
@Steeplejack: sorry. I didn’t catch the satire.
Sebastian
Disclosure: I am Croatian and the personal experience of the Croatian and Bosnian has influenced me heavily. All this is eerily familiar, the depth of parallels is bigger than I am able to describe.
I am having really strong gut feelings to call a few things as highly probable:
Ukrainian forces are fully intact. The expected initial decimation by superior Russian shelling did not happen at all.
The Russian airborne assaults all failed. Key airfields were held for a New York minute and immediately recaptured by Ukrainians No air superiority still.
A not very enthusiastic Russian attack on Kyiv was a complete dud. Ukraine is in full control of Kyiv and has drones up everywhere. Turkish Bayraktars and civilian ones. There was no assault on Kiev Where is the Russian horde?
The Russians did not invade with 150k. Their logistics are shit and they somehow ran out of gas. Now they are sitting ducks.
Ukrainian Air Force is kicking ass and just struck an airfield in Russia.
Russian casualties are brutal. 2.5-3k dead? That’s 10k casualties only a few days in. We know the Russians are mobilizing nurses and docs. No serious urban fighting yet.
Russsian morale is SHIT. The soldiers are on Tinder and Grindr and other SM. By now they know what’s happening, how many are dying or wounded.
Russians are short on troops, asking for reinforcements. Not getting it.
Ukrainians see everything. Now come the counterstrikes against the easy targets. We will see tons of videos of destroyed Russian hardware.
Kyiv is a street battle hardened city, easily the most experienced in Europe, in recent history. Like Hong Kong, they developed distinctive fighting styles: among others, perfected molotov cocktail tactics. Smaller, long necked bottles easier to throw further and more precise, filled with gas and styrofoam (to create napalm like stickiness), some with rag wick, some with kalium taped to the outside which does not require a flame for ignition on impact. Salvos of bottles against APCs are highly effective and frightening. Ukrainians are manufacturing them by the thousands and staging boxes full of them at street corners. Everyone is armed with small arms, many have elementary weapons knowledge.
Kyiv will not fall. Russia does not have enough soldiers to take a city of 3 million of which at least one million is contributing in some form to armed resistance.
This is a disaster of epic proportions for Russia. I believe Ukraine will defeat the Russian army in the field and it will happen soon.
HumboldtBlue
The Thin Black Duke
@HumboldtBlue: Wow. Thank you.
Sebastian
@HumboldtBlue:
Great read. Absolutely spot on.
Elizabelle
@HumboldtBlue: Wow. Thank you for posting that. I hope she is right.
Sebastian
The Russian gear is shit.
Space_Nip (@space_nip) Tweeted:
I am applying to all World! Look it is a real Russian Forces, there is absolutely a different reality than the one shown on TV by Russian propaganda! #WARINUKRAINE #RussiaUkraineWar https://t.co/Sp0pFNED0u
Noname
@Sebastian: A close friend who lived through that is saying the same things you are. And anyone who has known anyone Ukrainian will not be surprised at the way they are fighting back.
I wish you peace and hope that you and your family were as untouched as possible from the civil wars.
JPL
During the night, I checked the news several times. I’m glad that Ukraine is holding on.
lowtechcyclist
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497544729545920513
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Wow. Putin lost Orban?
zhena gogolia
@Baud: Yes.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud: I know, right?
Orban condemned Russia’s invasion from the start, which must’ve made Fucker Carlson’s head explode, since he idolizes both Putin and Orban.
I have no insights into Hungary or Orban, but my totally uneducated WAG is that cutting a nation off from SWIFT is such a BFD that it may have taken Orban a few days to be okay with the idea.
Anyway: Russia is now an outlaw state and should be treated as one.
Unfortunately, China’s still backing Russia (even spreading bullshit that Russia’s the real victim here, oh gimme a fucking break), so there’s no way to *completely* cut Russia off from the world. But kicking them out of SWIFT will be a kick in the nuts.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@JPL: Somebody posted a live webcam last night and I was watching it. You’d occasionally hear distant fighting, but sporadic and relatively small.
WaterGirl
@Sebastian: From your words to god’s ears. I woke in the night and went for my iPad, worried about the safety of all Ukraine, but especially President Zelensky.
Gin & Tonic
Here’s a photo from today, the highway from Kyiv out to Boryspil, its international airport. The signs over the highway say “Russian warship – go fuck yourself.”
The tweet says “Our days, our roads. Boryspil highway. Eternal glory to our heroes.”
I think this isn’t going the way Vladimir Vladimirovich thought it would.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Ukraine is going to put that on its coins, isn’t it?
I approve.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: It’s not t-shirt weather in Kyiv, but I’ll bet you can buy some with that printed on them today. They might even take over sales from the ones that say “Thank God I’m not a Muscovite”
lowtechcyclist
@Baud: Someone needs to take a pic of Fucker Carlson, and underneath it put the words, “Russian Mouthpiece, Go Fuck Yourself”
Ditto for a whole bunch of other Rethugs, from Trump to J.D. Vance.
ETA: Ditto anyone on the left who’s still making excuses for Putin. As Kay said yesterday, there’s a right side and a wrong side to this, and it’s blatantly obvious which is which.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: Prince TV Dinner apparently has done a 180 on the war. Wonkette has a story.
He’s still a horrible monster, of course.
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: I’m so happy to see the original. So they said it in Russian. Glory be to them.
zhena gogolia
@lowtechcyclist: (reposted from yesterday) We had a webinar with a group of Ukrainian students yesterday. I was weeping because instead of talking about their studies and plans, they were talking about helping with military operations. During the webinar, as a lot of faculty were posting messages of support to the listserv, one lefty posted, “Raising money for arms instead of raising arms in classrooms . . . SMH.” I refrained from posting Idi na khui.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott: Um, who?? My Googling isn’t turning up much, and I’m bad at picking up cultural references.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: Carlson is a Swanson heir.
Wonkette
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
(via CherylRofer)
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
Recycling plant in Kyiv is telling citizens to come down and get free empty bottles.
Steeplejack
@HumboldtBlue:
Excellent thread!
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: At first I thought that was too good to be true, but that appears to be coming from the federal highway department.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott: Ah, thanks.
And of course, whatever about-faces he and others are doing (they’re gonna need chiropracters to work on their necks after this) are too little, too late.
Another Scott
(via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
Kalakal
@Another Scott: Thank you. That cheered me up, I needed that
Another Scott
@Kalakal: ?
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
I know some people here aren’t fans, and I don’t give a shit
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: The response from the people of Ukraine is inspirational.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic:
This comment in response is what I was thinking this morning:
Kalakal
@Gin & Tonic: The Ukranian people have become an inspiration to the world
Miss Bianca
@Sebastian: God, I hope you’re right.
Miss Bianca
@HumboldtBlue: Wow, that’s a good read. Thank you for that.
Miss Bianca
@Another Scott: OMG. I love this shit. What an amazing people.
@Gin & Tonic: I was wondering where all the bottles were going to come from. Also wondering if there was any way to ship them more…
Sebastian
@lowtechcyclist:
The fat opportunistic bastard can smell a loser. He won’t have a big daddy to protect him and there are a lot of people with an open score to settle. The Slovakians, the Romanians, and the Ukrainians for starters.
Sebastian
@Another Scott:
OMG I laughed out loud.
Ukrainians are big hunters. It’s a national pastime, very much like in many parts of the US. From scattered reports, it appears they are, with help from drones, going on night hunts.
The Russians must be shitting their pants.
Another Scott
Short video clip.
Cheers,
Scott.