Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

The GOP couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

It’s time for the GOP to dust off that post-2012 autopsy, completely ignore it, and light the party on fire again.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Update 3: Dawn Has Broken Over Kyiv & Kyiv’s Defenses Have Held Through the Night

War for Ukraine Update 3: Dawn Has Broken Over Kyiv & Kyiv’s Defenses Have Held Through the Night

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By the time I hit publish on this quick update it will be 6:40 AM local time in Kyiv. For now, at least, its defenses and defenders still stand!

Ukrainian air defense have now brought down a second Russian IL-76 transport. If they were both carrying a full complement of Russian paratroopers, that’s approximately 290 KIA as each IL-26 can carry 145 paratroopers. Including flight crew, just those two strikes have added over 300 new KIAs to Russia’s casualty lists.

The Russian invasion force, however, has not stopped. Attacks are being reported in a number of other Ukrainian cities:

Now we wait and see what day 3 of Russia’s reinvasion and war against Ukraine brings.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

186Comments

  1. 1.

    RaflW

    Also this. Mikhail Matveev, deputy of the Russian State Duma (via tweet translation):

    @tweet_matveev
    I think that the war should be stopped immediately. Voting for the recognition of the DNR/LNR, I voted for peace, not for war. For Russia to become a shield, so that Donbass is not bombed, and not for Kyiv being bombed.

     
    Original

    Михаил Матвеев @tweet_matveev
    Считаю, что война должна быть немедленно прекращена. Голосуя за признание ДНР/ЛНР я голосовал за мир, а не за войну. За то, чтобы Россия стала щитом, чтобы не бомбили Донбасс, а не за то, чтобы бомбили Киев.

  6. 6.

    dmsilev

    So, apparently Putin is asking for reinforcements from some of Russia’s ‘closest allies’ and it’s not going well:
    One of Russia’s closest allies denies request for troops

    Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.

    Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine.

    Not exactly a vote of confidence in Russia from the Kazakh government.

  7. 7.

    RaflW

    @Kent: I have no idea how important he is. There are 450 Duma members. I mean, the way it seems, any opposition in parliament on day 3 seems remarkable! But he may be a total back bencher and fall out a window in the next ten minutes for this insolence.

  8. 8.

    Kent

    @Omnes Omnibus: I had to google map it.  That airbase is on Ukraine’s eastern border.  So probably where airstrikes are coming from among others.  So seems a very legit target.

  12. 12.

    dmsilev

    @Kent: I think it’s reasonable to assume that Ukrainian forces regard any Russian military assets that they can reach as being legitimate targets. Having any capability  to reach into Russian territory, rather than just fighting to protect their own lands, is something of a surprise though.

  13. 13.

    RaflW

    Saw an interesting tweet thread earlier this evening (thread was itself c. 8 hrs old) by Mike Martin of the Department of War Studies at King’s College London speculating that the high number of casualties of Russian personnel may be from the Russians moving fast and not having secure supply lines behind the fast move. The casualties are among the personnel who are lightly armed and would be following with logistics.

    Huge blunder if this pans out.

  14. 14.

    Mike in DC

    If Kyiv can survive another day, and most cities are still in Ukrainian hands after a week, we might even see something of a counter-offensive. Because at this pace the Russians will have accrued about 10,000 KIA/WIA/MIA/POW by then, and a metric fuckton of hardware losses.

  16. 16.

    Sanjeevs

    Adam

    Are you surprised that we haven’t seen many cyberattacks so far? (That we know of anyway).

    I thought Russia was supposed to be good at this and I thought Ukraine would have developed some skills here as it’s potentially a cheap way to hurt the enemy

  17. 17.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Kent: Any military target inside Russia is legit for the Ukrainians.  I just admire that they were able to go on offense.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    “… that our flag was still there…”

    The DW livestream (before it went off) had a crow cawing occasionally with lots of mostly silence.  But there was one period when there was a lot of gunfire.  A lot.  The good people of Kyiv and Ukraine are fighting for their country.  Godspeed to them.

    In other good news, …

    Full story – In a rare move, a judge ordered a new trial for Pamela Moses, sentenced to six years in prison for trying to register to vote. He said the prosecutor failed to turn over evidence to the defense and other evidence was wrongly admitted at trial https://t.co/mRfne0AfRG

    — Sam Levine (@srl) February 25, 2022

    (via Popehat)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    dmsilev

    @Sanjeevs: There we’re some in the week or so before the shooting started. I’m guessing that cyberattacks are still going on, it’s just not as noticeable or newsworthy as a column of tanks rolling across the border.

  21. 21.

    Subsole

    @topclimber: No. No, I really cannot.

    Nothing joyful about a planeful of kids getting incinerated. Even if I support the folks who did it, and think they were justified in doing it. Which, to be clear, I do. And I do.

    I am watching a LOT of people suffer for absolutely fucking nothing. Not just the dead and wounded. The survivors. They will carry all of this the rest of their days.

    People getting hooked on this shit? You could not scoop a more alien creature out of Europa’s lightless depths.

  25. 25.

    Soprano2

    My employer sent out an email today saying that they have restricted access to our network to the U.S. because of the danger of Russian cyberattacks.

  26. 26.

    Raoul Paste

    Glad for the update.  Kind of shocked about the troop transports, but this is War. A lot of uncertainty ahead

  28. 28.

    VOR

    Ukraine is capable of airstrikes at this point? Wow, I’m sure that wasn’t part of Putin’s plan. Shutting down the Ukrainian air force should have been an early goal.

  30. 30.

    Mallard Filmore

    I am watching YouTube video “How The Republican Party Has Evolved On Russia” [*], about how Manifort divided Ukraine on language lines. Now I am wondering if Putin thought his soldiers would be welcomed as liberators if they attacked through Russian speaking areas.

    [*] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oY1JNJ9PqCw

  35. 35.

    Kent

    @Eolirin: And I assume they will soon figure out how to make IEDs.  If the Iraqis can make them so can the Ukrainians.  They have LONG supply lines back to Russia.

  37. 37.

    mdblanche

    @dmsilev: I thought the Russians still had a lot of reserves near Ukraine they hadn’t deployed yet? Why would they need to start asking around for reinforcements?

  38. 38.

    Jay

    @Eolirin:

    engines need air. If you can get fire in there, it’s devastating.

    the thing is, you need to get close, 20 feet or less.

    saw a tweet earlier today from a high end Real Estate firm in Kiev today, the whole staff was making and distributing Molotov  cocktails.

  39. 39.

    Inventor

    @Eolirin: My understanding is that the army are prepared with caches of SDEDs (specifically designed explosive devices) already staged for the insurgent portion of the war. Civilians will use the IEDs and together they will bleed Russia white.

  40. 40.

    Kent

    @Jay: Plus, rubber tired vehicles burn.  Rubber is very flammable.  And a lot of these Russian troop carriers are rubber tired not tracked.  Probably not the best vehicle for urban fighting.

  41. 41.

    Jay

    @mdblanche:

    RUF forces consist of “professional” military, conscripts, which technically can’t be deployed outside of Russia proper, ( more than a few have been surprised to find out they ain’t in Russia any more, and it ain’t an exercise) and Contract soldiers.

    The Russian Military that can be deployed (legally) for actions outside Russia proper, is small.

    Thus the demand for reinforcements.

  44. 44.

    Jay

    @Kent:

    one the big things, known for a long time, (1944), is that for urban fighting in an AFV, Tank, APC, elevation is critical. You need to be able to shoot into the 22nd story while parked in the street out front.

    Only a tiny amount of fighting vehicles are capable of this.

  46. 46.

    Ken

    @dmsilev: I see from wikipedia that the Kazakhs once controlled a lot more territory to the north and east of their present boundaries. Maybe all the talk of restoring historic borders has given them something to think about?

  47. 47.

    Ascap_scab

    Rumor is Pornhub tells Russian users to GFY, displays Ukrainian flag.

    I can’t find a legit news source for this.

  48. 48.

    mdblanche

    @Jay: Last time I checked wars of aggression are illegal. What is Putin, a serial killer whose strict ethical code won’t let him jaywalk?

  49. 49.

    Peale

    @Ken: the Russians were just in Kazakhstan 2 months ago to put down riots over fuel subsidies. They send any of their forces away, they go back to rioting.

  50. 50.

    mdblanche

    @Kent:  The Molotov cocktail was invented by the Finns during the winter war and named to mock the Soviet foreign minister Molotov and his claim that the Soviets were on a humanitarian mission to bring food and drink to the starving Finns.

  51. 51.

    Ken

    @Mallard Filmore:  “How The Republican Party Has Evolved On Russia”

    Do they mean the long change from 1980 (“I have signed legislation which will outlaw Russia forever”) to 2022 (“Kiss kiss hug hug, who’s my favorite dictator”)?  Or the attempt in the last, oh, three days or so, to act like they’ve always been at war with Eurasia?

    The latter “evolution” outstrips anything ever proposed by saltationalists, though it’s not clear if they’ll be able to pull it off.

  52. 52.

    Fair Economist

    An interesting dynamic in this war is that Russian generals may not want to win. Successful Russian generals under Putin have a remarkable death rate, with several dying each year after the war they did well in. The current generals may have noticed.

  57. 57.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Sanjeevs: I am, but Putin has also committed less than 1/2 the forces he staged for the invasion. As I wrote earlier, I’m not sure why he’s holding back, but I’d very much like to know why he is doing so.

  58. 58.

    The Dangerman

    Seems to me NATO membership should be given immediately to Sweden and Finland. That would be a nice little Fuck You Very Much I think.

    Also, we can threaten if Russia keeps this up, we are shipping them Donald, the kids (not including Barron), and the kids spouses/SigOs.

  59. 59.

    Jay

    @Eolirin:

    yup, and so far, according to reports, a shitload are surprised the are in Ukraine, not Belarus.

    about 50% of conscripts, 2 years in, know how to properly shine their boots and iron their uniforms, and that is in a brutal system of physical punishment, bribery and theft.

    about 25% can strip, service and fire a standard infantry weapon.

    another 25% ( roughly) are tactically inclined, and can become platoon and squad leaders.

    It took me 5 years, despite having a C3, forklift to 45 tons, and a crapload of other crerts, plus demonstrated skills, before the CAF would let me drive an obsolete Leopard CA1 around a loop track for a hour, because that was’nt my MOS’s.

  60. 60.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Kent: @Peale: There was reporting earlier today that both Ukrainian bartenders were making them for the locals and chemistry students at one of the universities in Kyiv were making them as well for the Territorial Defense units.

  62. 62.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Ken: “How The Republican Party Has Evolved On Russia”

    It is an MSNBC segment, that starts with Romney’s stance when he was debating against Obama.  Some information on Manafort helping to elect pro-Russians in Ukraine, then his influence on the GOP.

  65. 65.

    Morzer

    @Adam L Silverman: Makes one wonder about the rate of COVID-19 infections, the supply lines and, frankly, how willing the Russians are to actually fight. When you consider that Putin has been asking Chechnya and Kazakhstan for help, it certainly doesn’t sound as if his military have any enthusiasm for the job.

  66. 66.

    Eolirin

    @Adam L Silverman: Is it possible he’s not choosing to hold back, but doesn’t actually have the means to fully deploy? How many of those troops might have severe enough covid that fighting would be difficult? We know there are issues with equipment and supplies.

    None of this feels like it was thought through very well.

  67. 67.

    mdblanche

    @Jay: So why can’t Putin get away with illegally deploying the wrong sort of soldier outside Russia’s borders? If he tries are the Moscow police going to bust into the Kremlin war room and arrest him?

  68. 68.

    Adam L Silverman

    @dmsilev: @mdblanche: They do, but… This is a similar play to what Putin did last month in Kazakhstan. He made the Collective Security Treaty Organization states send “peacekeepers” to Kazakhstan. This serves two purposes. It is a demonstration of his ability to get former Soviet states that are either only beginning their transitions to more liberal democratic rule (Armenia) or not transitioning at all to do his bidding. The other is that any units accused of engaging in war crimes or crimes against humanity on these missions means that if, in the future, the states they belong to seek to purchase US weaponry for them or get training for them, then they are prohibited by law. This applies to units that were not involved if they have personnel serving in them that were involved. Simply, it makes it harder for these states to pivot away from Russia and towards the US, the EU, and NATO.

    Right now the real concern are the 10,000 Chechen “Islamic” fighters that Kadyrov has sent. There are reports that they are already on the ground. These guys are basically semi-controlled butchers. They are so fanatical they make the Taliban and ISIS and al Shabab and Boko Haram look like the Welcome Wagon. And they had Slavs! They are there to commit atrocities, war crimes, and crimes against humanity in order to terrorize the Ukrainians into submission. This may sound brutal, but these Chechen fighters can’t be reasoned with or negotiated with. The only way they can be stopped is by killing them. These guys operate solely on no quarter asked or given.

  71. 71.

    Kelly

    @Jay:  I long wondered how much fire the armor could take. Didn’t occur to me the air intake was a weak spot. Obvious now.

    @Kent the rubber had occurred to me

  74. 74.

    Jay

    @mdblanche:

    yeah no,

    but you sign up, find out you have been utterly screwed, how hard will you fight?

    Since about the late 70’s, in NATO forces, you had to survive the first 24 hours, then the next 6 months.

    it requires commitment to the cause, task, purpose and your unit.

  75. 75.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Armor without dismounted infantry is not good in a city.  Very vulnerable.  My understanding is that a lot of the Russians do not want to dismount.

  77. 77.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Eolirin: I saw video earlier of a pair of Russian Soldiers “liberating” food from local vendors. I think their supply chain is all hosed up. I think two things happened while they were waiting for the go order. The first is they burned through a lot of their supplies. The second is  the unit commanders did what they’ve been doing for decades: started selling and trading necessities to the locals.

  78. 78.

    VOR

    @The Dangerman: re: NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. Those countries would have to apply first. But that would be a bit of blow-back for Putin if those two joined NATO. Sweden has a history of a capable domestic arms industry.

  80. 80.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: I’m aware that we do not know how much tooth versus how much tail was deployed on Ukraine’s borders. I’m not sure what Russian doctrine says on this, and it’s too late for me to look it up now as I’m getting ready to rack out, but if its anything close to what we, you all up north, and our NATO allies use then he’s got a lot less combat power than he appears to have for this invasion.

  85. 85.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Yarrow: You’re welcome. Sleep well. If you all think it would be relaxing I can post some videos of lucha libre matches involving the Psycho Circus, which is just what it sounds like: emmascadero luchadores who wear clown fright masks. Strangely enough they’re sort of tecnicos (baby faces).

  87. 87.

    Sebastian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    This, much of it before it even started. Add to that the Russian proverbial propensity to wing literally everything and that their armed forces are basically a massive unemployment program of a) portly cab drivers and other guys in their early forties or b) young red cheeked fellas who got shanghaid into signing a contract, and to top it off, 20 years of Trumpian incompetence …

    I am starting to be certain we’ve been afraid of the shadow of the Red Army for 70 years now.

    Today I bet hard cash we’ll see withdrawals/surrenders/mass desertations by March 15th latest.

  88. 88.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Geoduck: One of the more popular videos of “The Ghost of Kyiv” – fortunately none of the Ukrainian MiG 29 intercept videos I posted – has been confirmed to be from a combat flight simulator game.

  89. 89.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Ukraine has Chechens as well.

    the Russian Chechens are great at slaughtering unarmed villagers, with Russian military backing,

    They are a “terror weapon”, not sure how well they will do in  combat. They did not do well in the LPR and DPR.

  92. 92.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: I’m aware. Depends on how much discipline the Russians can impose on them. If they can even keep them moderately in line, then they’re going to be a big problem. If they can’t, then they’re just going to be a bunch of violent, destructive targets with beards that need a serious grooming.

  94. 94.

    Mallard Filmore

    I am watching a podcast replay on the YouTube channel “ADV Podcasts” about China’s posture in the Ukraine situation. The channel is run by two young dudes that lived in China for about 10 years.

    https://youtu.be/MIM5mKdmZSQ?t=1744 (starts 29 minutes into the podcast)

  98. 98.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: The myth and legend is more important for morale right now than the reality. Even if five different Ukrainian pilots downed just three Russian fighters, that’s a major achievement. Hell, taking down the two transports of paratroopers is a huge accomplishment.

  100. 100.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    The longer this goes to the more comically absurd this would be if wasn’t for all the people dying.

  101. 101.

    Yarrow

    @Adam L Silverman:  It might be. I’m awake because one of the smoke alarms decided to start beeping. But which one? Random intermittent beeping takes awhile to track down and stop. And now I’m awake. Bleh.

  102. 102.

    NobodySpecial

    Watching this, and knowing a tiny bit about logistics and having seen the Iraq War, I can’t help but picture someone telling Putin before this invasion that it would pay for itself when they sold all the wheat.

  104. 104.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Yarrow: 

    I’m awake because one of the smoke alarms decided to start beeping. But which one? Random intermittent beeping takes awhile to track down and stop. And now I’m awake. Bleh.

    I had a hella of a time tracking down a beeping alarm that I had thrown into a dresser drawr.

  106. 106.

    Yarrow

    @Mallard Filmore:  A friend of mine went somewhere on vacation and stayed in a rented condo. In the bedroom of unit next to them, with which their bedroom shared a wall, an alarm went off every morning at 5:30  a.m. No one was in that unit so the alarm didn’t turn off for something like half an hour. Every. Morning. They finally had to track down the management and get them to go in and turn it off.

  107. 107.

    Yarrow

    @Mallard Filmore:  A friend of mine went somewhere on vacation and stayed in a rented condo. In the bedroom of unit next to them, with which their bedroom shared a wall, an alarm went off every morning at 5:30  a.m. No one was in that unit so the alarm didn’t turn off for something like half an hour. Every. Morning. They finally had to track down the management and get them to go in and turn it off.

  108. 108.

    Yarrow

    @Mallard Filmore:  A friend of mine went somewhere on vacation and stayed in a rented condo. In the bedroom of unit next to them, with which their bedroom shared a wall, an alarm went off every morning at 5:30  a.m. No one was in that unit so the alarm didn’t turn off for something like half an hour. Every. Morning. They finally had to track down the management and get them to go in and turn it off.

  109. 109.

    West of the Rockies

    @dmsilev:

    Vile Putin wants other nations’ soldiers to die on behalf of his thirst for power.   I hope he dies soon and badly.

  110. 110.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Kent: this is an example why this feels like a farce more than a real war. Who in the hell would drive their vehicle into a mess like that?

  111. 111.

    Yarrow

    <a href=”#comment-8439609″>@Mallard Filmore</a>:  A friend of mine went somewhere on vacation and stayed in a rented condo. In the bedroom of unit next to them, with which their bedroom shared a wall, an alarm went off every morning at 5:30  a.m. No one was in that unit so the alarm didn’t turn off for something like half an hour. Every. Morning. They finally had to track down the management and get them to go in and turn it off.

  112. 112.

    The Pale Scot

    Seems like things haven’t changed, I expected that there would be reforms in the Russian military. This book was a must read back in the day, still pertinent.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_the_Soviet_Army

    Not the book I’m looking for. There’s one by a Red Army officer was was in Hungary in ’68. The amount of effort of the men to procure booze was astounding. They drained the secondary radiators of their BMPs and filled them with brandy looted from a monastery for ex.

  113. 113.

    Steeplejack

    @Kent:

    Re that video, a different opinion:

    Seeing this video go around, please note that this is Kyiv 2014 during Euromaidan. Not tonight.

    But it is a nice reminder of what Kyiv folks can do and have done with little but molotovs, riot shields, fireworks and laser pointers.
    https://t.co/5ZHCkI3sG0

    — zeddy (@Zeddary) February 26, 2022

  114. 114.

    Yarrow

    Jeez. Sorry for the multiple duplicate comments. Nothing was posting when I clicked “Post comment.” It just sat there. So I clicked again. i guess it posted several times.

  118. 118.

    RaflW

    @Yarrow: The triple post is a very clever allusion to an uncontrolled alarm.

    Speaking of which, I will not be setting a Saturday alarm, but 12:20 a.m. MST is definitely bedtime. Even if I want to be staying up to date on this grim but wild ride in Europe.

    Good night, all.

  119. 119.

    Captain C

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I think two things happened while they were waiting for the go order.

    I wonder if the wait also is one of the reasons they’re not going in full force.  Their units are probably COVID-ridden, and I’ve read that much of their equipment was fresh from depot and thus probably not combat-ready.  Keeping combat soldiers in a holding pattern can’t be done indefinitely, and conscripts led by corrupt incompetents probably hold readiness shorter than a more professional unit.  Add to that the things you mention, and the fact that a mob-ridden country like Russia probably had some supply issues to begin with, it may be that at least some of the follow-on units physically just can’t make it into combat ,especially if they were selling off their fuel (presumably for food, booze, and cigarettes).

    A man like Putin surrounded by yes-men and huffing his own glory farts may not have had any of this information (not that it would have stopped him).

  123. 123.

    Sebastian

    @RaflW:

    Don’t forget that we and NATO can see everything and are guiding Ukrainian forces to hit the soft spots.

    That’s how Croatia liberated 1/3 of their country and a good chunk of Bosnia in like 48 hours.

  124. 124.

    Sebastian

    @Kent:

    Yes, they are literally setting up “refreshment centers” on street corners.

    Neighborhoods across Ukraine are setting up “delicious” makeshift beverage stands on every city street corner for Putin.

    Special gifts from all Ukrainian citizens, from all walks of life, young & old, awaiting their uninvited visitors.

    Re: molotov cocktails

    ? pic.twitter.com/rRsKZzOEge
    — The Clear Cider (@TheClearCider) February 26, 2022

    They are not fucking around. You add styrofoam to gasoline to turn it into napalm.

    ??Molotov cocktail production #Ukraine
    pic.twitter.com/euAZL9pJKx
    — Ukraine News ?? (@UkraineNews0) February 25, 2022

  125. 125.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    Say what you will about the 21st-century Iraq war – and I thought it was a horrible mistake and sufficient in and of itself to send Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Powell, and the rest of that gang to roast in hell – but I distinctly remember the first phase involved making sure they had control over the airspace before sending in the troops. Granted, my only military experience is as a conscript who got invalided out before getting deployed anywhere, but on reading about Russian transport aircraft getting shot down trying to bring soldiers into the war zone, am I the only one who thinks it’s tactically stupid to try to fly troops into a warzone through hostile airspace?

  127. 127.

    Geminid

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: Stupid, or desperate. I think Putin’s military leaders overpromised, told him this invasion would be easier than it has turned out to be. Now they are risking their soldiers’ lives to get back on schedule.

    This is due of course to  Putin’s authoritarian rule. The film from earlier this week, of Putin humiliating the head of the FSR intelligence agency, showed his intolerance for independent advice from his advisors. Now that Putin has been frustrated, the danger is that he will lash out (as Mr. Omnibus pointed out earlier). He’ll likely lash out at Ukrainians first, but Stalin had no qualms about executing his army officers and neither will Putin.

  128. 128.

    Morzer

    @Geminid: I wonder how close we are to the underlings realizing the boss is going to kill them all sooner or later and deciding to live… without the boss.

  129. 129.

    MomSense

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    @tribal.cat on Instagram posted that this morning and said it is from Russian controlled airfield in Ukraine.

    she is such an important follow. After they got out of the air raid shelter during the night a woman inviter her for coffee and to talk.  The photos of this woman in her humble kitchen and the description of her thoughts – made me cry.  Tribal cat is an artist and brings that sensitivity to what has become reporting.  She’s remarkable.

  130. 130.

    Sloane Ranger

    I suspect that Putin and his advisors are high on their own supply and were convinced that Russian speakers in Ukraine would support the invasion,  making it easier for their forces to make progress in areas where they were present in significant numbers. Even in democracies anyone who tells politicians something they don’t want to hear tends to get frozen out of the decision making process. How much worse is it likely to be in authoritarian states like Russia?

    Also, the rapid collapse of the Afghan army may have contributed to a belief that US/UK/NATO training wasn’t everything it was cracked up to be.

  133. 133.

    debbie

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I heard an interview about an hour ago on the BBC with a woman who had remained behind to help her mother and grandmother. She mentioned she was glad she’d filled the tank of her car because she planned to make Molotov cocktails for her neighborhood.

  134. 134.

    Kay

    Glenn Greenwald Retweeted
    The Hill
    @thehill
    ·14h
    NEW POLL: 62 percent of voters say Putin wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president

    The middle aged men of the substack Right becoming increasingly upset as Ukraine continues to hold out. Not playing out how they hoped it would.
    Tulsi Gabbard was at CPAC praising the public school teacher gag orders last night. Just full on hard Right now.

  136. 136.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    Hogwash. Trump wouldn’t have resisted, but Putin still would have invaded Ukraine. In fact, there will be many demonstrations and rallied around the country today supporting Ukraine. Trump would have called for the National Guard to disperse them.

  138. 138.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    If Trump had disappeared NATO, then you’re right. But I don’t think that’s the issue. I think Putin wants Ukraine back under his control and Ukrainians would certainly have something to say about that. Irregardless.

  139. 139.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    After being so wrong about whether Putin would invade, one would think the middle aged men of the substack Right would hold off on predictions, but they’re just frantically making more.

    They’re really uncomfortable with uncertainty.

    If US Lefties were smart they’d grow their own younger leaders. These people were relevant 20 years ago. They return again and again to their Glory Days, opposing the invasion of Iraq, and jam every event into that frame. Tulsi was ranting about “neocons” last night.

  140. 140.

    Gin & Tonic

    @cazador:

    How recognizable would the Chechen troops be? It seems most Ukrainians can also speak Russian, would those Chechens stick out like sore thumbs?

    Well, I can’t think of a Ukrainian I know with a beard.

  141. 141.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    These people were relevant 20 years ago. They return again and again to their Glory Days, opposing the invasion of Iraq, and jam every event into that frame. Tulsi was ranting about “neocons” last night.

     

    Agree. A lot of aging people can’t handle that the world has passed them by. Of course, they are a good fit for the right.

  142. 142.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    I saw a clip of Pompeo speaking at CPAC yesterday, boasting that Ukraine would never have been invaded if he were still SoS. ?

  146. 146.

    Kay

    @debbie:

    Marc Caputo
    @MarcACaputo
    · 11h
    Putin who? At CPAC, top Republicans avoid mentioning Russian dictator by name

    It’s awkward for them. As Russia invaded, Russia was using the leader of their political Party for pro-Putin propaganda.

    Someone should have played audio of Trump and Pompeo lavishing praise on Putin over the audio of the CPAC speakers. In Trump’s case it was last week.

  149. 149.

    Geminid

    @Kalakal: It sounds like the Chechens’ strength, if it can be called that, is their willingness to massacre people. Their value as front line fighters may be dubious, but they could create a lot of terror behind the lines.

    There is not really a “front line” line in this war, though, at least not yet. The Ukrainians have planned for an asymmetric, “guerilla” war, with military formations operating behind and around Russisn troops. The fighting between these units and the Chechens will be savage.

  151. 151.

    Jinchi

    @Baud: I would have been in that majority.  Trump wasn’t a threat to Putin, so no reason to invade.

    Putin didn’t invade because he felt Biden was a threat. He invaded because he wants to restore Russia to it’s Soviet glory days.
    It was pretty clear Trump was ready to hand Ukraine over to him at the first opportunity. The whole Hunter Biden shakedown was a part of that – an act of dominance and humiliation that clearly signaled he would abandon Ukraine as easily as he abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Add in Trump’s desire to end the NATO alliance and it’s pretty clear Putin was hoping he’d role into Ukraine completely unopposed during the second Trump term.​​

  155. 155.

    Gin & Tonic

    @japa21: I can only sleep with the help of medication lately.

    The fact that Kyiv hasn’t been taken is encouraging. Every day that Putin doesn’t get what he wants is good for Ukrainian morale and worse for Russia’s logistics. Over 100,000 AK’s were distributed in Kyiv, and the recycling plant told everyone to come down and get free empty bottles and a lesson in how to prepare them for “guests.” I’m not joking. The city will not be taken easily.

  157. 157.

    Kalakal

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Every day that Putin doesn’t get what he wants is good for Ukrainian morale and worse for Russia’s logistics.

    This.

    I hope you can manage to get some rest

  160. 160.

    dr. luba

    @Kay: Putin didn’t invade during Trump’s first term because it would have damaged his reelection campaign.  And he was waiting for Trump to finish destroying NATO and all other US alliances.

    Added bonus: Angela Merkel gone.

    I can only assume Trump would have provided tactical and intelligence support for the invasion, in exchange for building the Trump Tower Kiev and a bag of magical beans.

  161. 161.

    Yarrow

    @Starfish:  Fuck off with that bullshit. In this thread you’re going to promote giving away a large state in the United States of America to another country so that country can impose its laws on it? What the actual fuck?

  162. 162.

    dr. luba

    @cazador: There’s dialect and accents.  Just like it’s easy for us to differentiate yankees, midwesterners and southerners, so Ukrainians can easily differentiate non-Ukrainian Russian speakers.

  163. 163.

    Starfish

    @Yarrow: In the Treaty of Hidalgo, we promised

    In exchange for the transfer of land and sovereignty by Mexico, the United States promised in the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo that it would “inviolably respect” the established private property rights of Mexican citizens in the conquered territory and provide them with “guaranties equally ample as if the same belonged

    We did not uphold that part during any of the Trump presidency, so we have to give Texas back.

  166. 166.

    Calouste

    Now that more and more countries are closing their airspace to Russian planes (and Russia closing its airspace to theirs in retaliation), I wonder if what’s going to bring Putin down is the oligarchs getting upset at having to take a detour via China if they want to fly between Moscow and London or Monaco.

  168. 168.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Adam L Silverman: As I wrote earlier, I’m not sure why he’s holding back, but I’d very much like to know why he is doing so.

    Well, word today seems be to lack of logistics.

    Might also be why he asked for those Chechen looters. They are used to living off the land.  The sound more like Ottoman Baza Buki than anything else.  Russia is the new Ottoman Empire

    Another statistic – Putin’s shock and aw missile attack ; 300 missiles,  Iraq War Two Shock and Aw 3000 missiles.

  170. 170.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @dr. luba: So Anonymous which is just a bunch of dudes hacking and this happened to Russia, the second strongest military in the world.  Small wonder the US knew so much about what Putty is up to.

  171. 171.

    RaflW

    @Calouste: There’s Aeroflot 777s (400+ passenger longhaul) scheduled flights currently en route JFK and LAX. Has a swanky biz class with 28 doored personal mini-suites. I doubt any oligarchs are gonna want to fly here, but they’d have comfort and privacy if they did.

    I know I’ve banged on about this several times, but I don’t get why the US is letting these flights enter. Maybe to fly the oligarch’s kids home on the return leg?

  172. 172.

    Another Scott

    @Yarrow: The servers at Balloon-Juice Galactic Industries apparently do a backup or database compaction or similar intensive task every morning at 2AM ET.  That’s when posting gets very slow and wonky.  It usually clears up in 10-15 minutes or so.

    HTH.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  173. 173.

    Miss Bianca

    I know I’m a bear of very little brain and all, so that’s probably why I don’t get it about Putin deploying Chechen Islamist terror forces.

    Weren’t these the guys who were *opposing* Russia and supporting Chechen independence? Why the fuck would they be fighting *for* Russia now? Just the chance to fuck shit up? Or are they getting some sort of preferential treatment in return for their services?

  176. 176.

    Starfish

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    Things we would not have:
    – queso
    – Texas gerrymandering nonsense
    – Texans being annoying
    – Elon Musk
    – All the companies that moved their headquarters to Texas
    – All my friends who live in Texas
    – All the great universities in Texas
    – Austin trying to be the new Silicon Valley
    – Ted Cruz

    Would I give Texas to Mexico just to get rid of Elon Musk and Ted Cruz? Yes.

    Is there a very valid reason that I am not in charge of politics? Also yes.

  178. 178.

    Another Scott

    @Brit in Chicago: CherylRofer has reposted things that indicate that Russian ships have a right to return to their Black Sea ports via the Bosporus.  Even in a war. Things would have to get very intense for Turkey to break that treaty.  (Which may happen, but it’s not a given.)

    I deleted this tweet because it is being retweeted, and it’s inaccurate. I’ve left the rest of the thread up because it explains the situation. pic.twitter.com/4CCrNpk5S6

    — Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) February 26, 2022

    I’m no expert.

    FWIW.

    [eta:] That was for @Kelly – dunno how I clicked the wrong link. Not enough caffeine I guess.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  180. 180.

    Carlo Graziani

    Thanks Adam, these posts condense a lot of valuable signal from a great deal of confusing noise.

    I have to admit that I was very wrong about what was going to happen. I was sure that Putin is not an idiot, and remembers how the US bled the Soviet army to death in Afghanistan, and would understand the logic of not getting his nuts caught in the same wringer. But it turns out the Biden administration was correct all along (they must be buying Intel from corrupt officials throughout the Russian government) and the deployments were driven by a real large-scale war plan. He is an idiot. I feel foolish too, and I’ve also had to apologize and offer support to a friend who emigrated from Ukraine in the 70s, and was more prescient than I.

    Having established that sterling analytic record, I do nonetheless want to set down a couple of thoughts about what might be going on.

    In the first place, I think caution is in order about what we actually know. Based on the example of news streams from early days in previous conflicts, the rule of thumb is 90% or more of all “news” turns out to be wrong. It’s not hard to see why. War is confusing anyway, those with real views into the situation guard that knowledge, each side exaggerates its successes and the enemy’s failures for the sake of morale, and reporters, many of whom are more qualified by hair and make-up than by expertise, must meet daily deadlines with rumors and speculation and chaff, so that much more is reported than is known or understood. I think it’s unlikely that the public will have even a partially correct view of the events of this week until early March.

    As to the question of why have the Russians not made more progress, where are the rest of them, etc., I think we can’t exclude the possibility that the Russian army is shitting itself, but we can’t see the effects that clearly yet. The fact of the matter is, this is not the Soviet army, and can only generate a tiny fraction of its once fearsome combat power. They are not particularly well-officered — their NCO system is notoriously non-functional — and their training is ad-hoc, consisting of rotating individual brigade-scale units to Syria. Where they admittedly get realistic conditions, but where they do not train for coordinated large-scale operations such as the one they are currently engaged in, against fierce and determined resistance. The Soviet Army used to train for such operations regularly, taking over large portions of East Germany for the purpose.

    Which is to say, what they are attempting to do would not be simple even if they had an army that was demonstrably well-prepared for it. And I don’t think that they do. They may succeed in the end, but even if they do I think they will be appalled at the cost.

    Which leads to the last thought. I think that where this ends is not in Ukraine, but with someone around Putin giving him the shove. Presumably that’s the meaning of the sanctions targeting oligarchs and his network. Putin is not Stalin. He does not have the level of control over Russia that the organs of the Communist Party gave the Poliburo. He has debts and obligations, and keeps power in a Mafia-like wealth-sharing arrangement that keeps certain people in the magic circle rich. Those people like traveling to the West, like liquidity in Western banks, Western real estate, Western toys, Western luxury goods. This war of choice is costing them those things now, and is likely to be viewed by some of them as a sort of breach of contract. Others will look at the costs of the war, immediate and from long-term occupation, should that occur, as the US exploits the opportunity by shipping weapons and IED-materials and furnishing intelligence to “Afghanistan II — This Time On Your Fucking Doorstep, Vladi.” By later this year, I think he’ll be radioactive in Russia, and everyone will be trying to move away from him. Honestly, I wouldn’t sell him life insurance at any price. Would you?

    (And thank again to Adam for pointing out certain very educational technical resources on Russian Army combat readiness, some of which I made use of here, possibly wrongly).

  182. 182.

    Carlo Graziani

    One other point of tea-leaf reading:

    The attempt to take a fully-garrisoned Kiev on Day 2 by a coup-de-main using Airborne troops hundreds of miles from their mechanized infantry, artillery, armor, and logistical support seems reckless to me.  Airborne assaults are notoriously mobile and benefit from surprise and initiative, right up to the point where they hit the ground, where they become static, poorly-supported, lightly-armed infantry — this hasn’t really changed that much since MARKET-GARDEN in WWII. I don’t understand how planners imagined that sort of operation succeeding, unless they helped themselves to an unhealthy dose of wishful thinking about lack of resistance and willingness to surrender.

    Which perhaps tells us something useful about the quality of Russian army general staff as well.

  183. 183.

    Geminid

    @Miss Bianca: I think the Russians finally suppressed the Chechen rebellion by supporting their own Chechen leader. They stay out of his way and let him run the place, like a mob boss with a small army. Those are the troops sent to Ukraine.

  185. 185.

    J R in WV

    @Jinchi: ​
     

    Putin didn’t invade because he felt Biden was a threat. He invaded because he wants to restore Russia to it’s Soviet glory days.

    I disagree. Putin wants to restore Russia to the glory days of the Tsarist Empire, with Putin as the Tsar.

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