A quarter of US Covid deaths were likely preventable w/ vaccination. New analysis from Peterson Center on Healthcare & Kaiser Family Fdn report from 6/2021—the point when every American adult had access to Covid vaccines— +234k unvaccinated people died https://t.co/eT9SeBzsVz
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) April 23, 2022
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The Drive to Vaccinate the World Against #COVID19 Is Losing Steam.
Rates are stalling in most low-income countries well short of @WHO's goal to immunize 70% of people in every country. Experts fear the momentum is gone.https://t.co/UD5cDxxR9E
— MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect) April 23, 2022
Shanghai fences up COVID-hit buildings, fuelling fresh outcry https://t.co/CHMSR8xNcD pic.twitter.com/m04rKhM3R4
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 24, 2022
So one bit of nuance that's been left out of the discussion is Shanghai is not about rich or poor- Shanghai is about Shanghaiese, and waidi. One has a local hukou, the other is from elsewhere and has limited access to local services- and is treated like shit by Shanghaiese. EG: pic.twitter.com/FDxUrqtEqg
— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) April 23, 2022
Hukou is the document that gives you local residency, access to local social services, hospitals, and education, and is probably one of the top 3 issues that most Chinese feel needs to be resolved- and it’s being worked on, it’s just not there yet.
If you are born with a hukou for a first-tier city- that’s some serious privilege. Better schools, better healthcare, better jobs- if you have a rural hukou, yeah you can work your way up, but it’s hard mode. Shanghai is a very desirable hukou and they look down on everyone else.
There have been constant reports from the beginning of Shanghaiese being prioritized for food, access to medical services, better quarantine facilities- and non-local hukou (waidi) people being subject to far worse. Expats to all intents and purposes are treated like Shanghaiese.
Expats, not being subject to the hukou system generally underestimate the extent it influences life for us and so have not been covering it much. They exist in a weird sort-of-privileged-while-not-being-fully-accepted-and-only-allowed-as-kind-of-guest-workers kind of grey area.
One of the big problems is expats largely interact with middle-class Chinese- and so report what those voices say. I’m guilty of the same. Most VPN users- middle class, well-educated Chinese. And- let’s face it, China gives most of us a pretty decent life, we’re the “haves”.
This is not to say they would be telling you about how they are yearning for democracy- the opposite most are fiercely nationalistic, but the long and the short of it is the people who are really, really getting the shit end of the stick in Shanghai, you aren’t hearing from them.
A video that has gone viral showing the impact of the prolonged coronavirus lockdown on Shanghai's residents has been taken down by China's censors, triggering an online backlash. https://t.co/RBabCLZSOU
— SBS News (@SBSNews) April 24, 2022
This is the video everyone on WeChat has gone out of their way to keep alive today. It’s a collage of audio snippets circulating online lately, each recorded by a hurting civilian in Shanghai’s lockdown purgatory. An unprecedented strong public grievances. https://t.co/w8F8chAypQ
— Caiwei Chen (@CaiweiC) April 22, 2022
(The other one is Eritrea)
North Korea is one of the only nations that has not administered any coronavirus vaccines https://t.co/wmWCIsWSDc
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 24, 2022
???
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? @LancetGH #ECCMID2022
Large study from Chile in > 4 million vaccinees supports mix-and-match added protection after Coronavac with booster of either Pfizer or AZ vs hospitalization, ICU or deathhttps://t.co/fQDsHyM2jx by @rafael_araos and colleagues pic.twitter.com/CLCjbpv53H— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 23, 2022
Another problem connected with #Covid: Sleep disturbances. Research in the journal Neuroscience and Behavioral Physiology indicates that parts of the brain controlling sleep are affected even after the infection is cleared https://t.co/wKrMyLFN5i pic.twitter.com/6XTsfpaCrT
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) April 23, 2022
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Joanne Daniels-Finegold, a 69-year-old wheelchair user with asthma, kidney problems and a blood-clotting disorder, rides the bus to go to the grocery store, the doctor and work.
She now must take the risk without the protection of a mandatory mask policy. https://t.co/oePkeKTlLX
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 23, 2022
In unionized nursing homes across the US, residents were significantly less likely to be infected with and die from COVID-19 according to new research by @AdamDean34 @jamiekmccallum @simkimmel @atheendar pic.twitter.com/11QliOyfXw
— Ben Zipperer (@benzipperer) April 20, 2022
Heartbreaking:
… Much of the public conversation around misinformation focuses on fact-checking and flagging false posts online. But these methods don’t provide much help for people like Stephanie, says Sander van der Linden, a professor of social psychology at the University of Cambridge in the U.K.
“Most people who are really into disinformation and conspiracy theories don’t believe in a single conspiracy theory,” he says. Rather, they’re drawn into a self-reinforcing conspiratorial worldview in which conspiracies build on one another. While the theories can seem disparate, they often have unifying themes: They feed distrust in sources of authority; they claim insider knowledge that makes the believer feel valuable; and frequently, that knowledge includes a secret plan to defeat the forces of evil.
Van der Linden says there are three major reasons why people are drawn into this world in the first place: fear and anxiety about the future, a desire to have a simple explanation for complex or seemingly random events, and the social support that communities around conspiracy theories can provide.
While it’s impossible to say exactly what drove Stephanie, her daughters identify several things that seem to roughly correspond to those broad categories of motivations. First, they say Stephanie suffered from a lot of anxiety throughout her life. With her tennis days behind her, much of her self-esteem now lay with her astrology work and her spiritual group. And that group was clearly playing the role of echo chamber, reinforcing her ideas and beliefs.
Benscoter thinks the pandemic has also pushed many people further into the shadows of conspiracies. “The pandemic increases fear, and fear is a really hard emotion. And isolation is a really hard place to be,” she says.
Benscoter herself is a former cult member. She says the conspiracy narratives provide reassurance. Even if the facts seem crazy, they can provide emotional stability. Speaking of her own past, she says these tales gave clarity because they turned complex problems into simple questions of good versus evil.
“It feels so good; I never felt so secure. I mean I knew what was right and wrong. There was no question,” she says…
… [S]he still thinks about the people who make the paranoia-laced videos that her mother consumed day after day. She understands that something inside her mother drew her to those voices, but Laurie still sees Stephanie mainly as a victim of the grifters and attention-seekers who generate many hours of falsehoods every day to grab money, likes and shares.
“Whoever is creating all this content, is on some level waging a war — here in America — inside of every family,” she says. “I think people need to wake up to that.”
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
393 new cases. This is PCR and home tests. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that this continues to go down.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 5,624 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 4,427,067 cases. It also reported nine deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,491 deaths – 0.80% of the cumulative reported total, 0.82% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.77.
55 confirmed cases and 34 suspected cases are in ICU; of these patients, 35 confirmed cases and 22 suspected cases are on ventilators. Meanwhile, 10,041 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,310,599 patients recovered – 97.4% of the cumulative reported total.
One new cluster was reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 7,003 clusters. 99 clusters are currently active; 6,904 clusters are now inactive.
5,607 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 17 new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 73,767 doses of vaccine on 23rd April: 17,177 first doses, 53,369 second doses, and 3,221 booster doses. The cumulative total is 70,013,893 doses administered: 27,703,825 first doses, 26,516,206 second doses, and 16,006,894 booster doses. 84.8% of the population have received their first dose, 81.2% their second dose, and 49.0% their booster dose.
YY_Sima Qian
On 4/23 Mainland China reported 1,566 new domestic confirmed (577 previously asymptomatic), 20,230 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 domestic suspect cases, & 39 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) cases, all at Guangzhou, both of the new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 13 domestic confirmed & 9 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 247 active domestic confirmed & 116 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic (both at Fangchenggang) cases, both traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 40 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed (all at Baise) & 275 active domestic asymptomatic cases (231 at Fangchenggang, 27 at Baise, 7 at Chongzuo, 9 at Qinzhou, & 1 at Nanning) in the province.
Hunan Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Shaoyang, all truck drivers passing through. There currently are 28 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 4 sites at Shaoyang are currently at Medium Risk.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 5 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Manzhouli in Hulun Buir, 1 via voluntary testing & 4 are traced close contacts. 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed (6 at Hulun Buir, 2 each at Chifeng & Hinggan League, & 1 at Bayan Nur) & 5 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Hinggan League & 1 at Wuhai) cases in the province. 1 sub-district in Manzhouli is currently at Medium Risk.
At Tianjin Municipality there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
Shandong Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 45 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 7 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 40 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 67 active domestic confirmed cases & 563 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Shanxi Province reported 5 new domestic asymptomatic (4 at Taiyuan & 1 at Shuozhou) cases, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 7 domestic confirmed & 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 59 active domestic confirmed (45 at Taiyuan, 12 at Shuozhou, & 1 each at Xinzhou & Yangquan) & 245 active domestic asymptomatic (238 at Taiyuan & 7 at Shuozhou) cases remaining. 1 site at Taiyuan is currently at Medium Risk.
Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 116 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 33 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 1083 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic confirmed & 21 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed & 163 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Heilongjiang Province reported 26 new domestic confirmed & 16 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 355 active domestic confirmed & 251 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 60 new domestic confirmed (18 previously asymptomatic, 58 mild & 2 moderate) & 154 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 332 domestic confirmed & 745 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality reported 22 new domestic confirmed case (19 mild & 3 moderate), 17 traced close tacts (2 under centralized quarantine), 2 via mandatory screening, & 3 via community screening. As the city does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. All areas in the city are now at Low Risk, but is not likely to last.
Shanghai Municipality reported 1,401 new domestic confirmed (541 previously asymptomatic) & 19,657 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 20,237 of the new domestic positive cases were already under quarantine, & 280 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (effectively meaning from the community). There were 39 deaths (avg. 78.7 y.o. & oldest at 98 y.o., all w/ a range of underlying conditions, none vaccinated). 2,242 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 16,626 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 24,130 active domestic confirmed (160 serious & 19 critical) & 206,648 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 13 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
At Shaanxi Province 5 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic confirmed & 12 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 1 site at Xi’an is currently at Medium Risk.
Hubei Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild, at Wuhan) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Wuhan & 1 at Enshi Prefecture) cases. 2 of the cases at Wuhan came from areas w/ active outbreak (including a construction worker returning from building temporary hospital in Shanghai) & under centralized quarantine since arrival, & 1 is a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. The case at Enshi is a recent arrival from elsewhere & under centralized quarantine. 1 domestic confirmed & 36 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 5 active domestic confirmed (all mild, 4 at Wuhan & 1 at Huanggang) & 226 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Suizhou, 99 at Wuhan, 72 at Ezhou, 5 each at Yichang & Enshi Prefecture, 37 at Huanggang, 2 at Huangshi, & 1 at Shiyan & Xiaogan) cases in the province.
Jiangsu Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 120 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 5 domestic confirmed & 77 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The currently are 90 active domestic confirmed & 1,114 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Anhui Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic) & 14 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 21 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 12 active confirmed & 525 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 12 new domestic confirmed (9 previously asymptomatic) & 31 new domestic asymptomatic case. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
Gansu Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province no longer breaks down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in the administrative divisions.
Fujian Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 8 domestic confirmed case recovered & 27 domestic asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 52 active domestic confirmed & 191 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Shuanghe) cases in the region.
At Guizhou Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed (at Guiyang) cases remaining in the province.
Jiangxi Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 29 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 3 asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 108 active domestic confirmed & 221 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Henan Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (all mild, 4 at Anyang & 2 at Zhengzhou) & 26 new domestic asymptomatic (5 at Zhengzhou, 8 at Anyang, 1 at Zhoukou, & 12 at Xinyang) cases. The cases at Zhengzhou & Anyang are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. The case at Zhoukou is a construction worker returning from building temporary hospitals in Shanghai & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 2 domestic confirmed & 32 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 31 active domestic confirmed & 247 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 1 site at Luohe is currently at Medium Risk.
At Chongqing Municipality 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining in the city.
Qinghai Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently are 41 active domestic confirmed & 38 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Yunnan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic, Hekou County in Honghe Prefecture) & 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases (2 at Maguan County in Wenshan Prefecture & 6 at Jinping County in Honghe Prefecture). 2 domestic confirmed & 12 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 19 active domestic confirmed & 234 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 4/23, Mainland China reported 14 new imported confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 55 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 2,672 confirmed cases recovered (14 imported), 17,843 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (101 imported) & 578 were reclassified as confirmed cases (1 imported), & 32,760 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 29,531 active confirmed cases in the country (218 imported), 236 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 249,212 active asymptomatic cases (656 imported), 2 suspect cases (both imported). 437,249 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 4/23, 3,329.766M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.15M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 4/24, Hong Kong reported 429 new positive cases, 19 imported & 410 domestic (202 via RT-PCR & 208 from rapid antigen tests), 11 deaths (4 fully vaccinated) + 2 backlogged deaths.
On 4/24, Taiwan reported 5,172 new positive cases, 80 imported & 5,092 domestic. The Taiwanese authorities claim that 99.64% of the cases from the current wave are asymptomatic or mild, there currently are 88 moderate & 8 serious cases (& 4 deaths). 79K people are under home quarantine. The numbers are strangely reminiscent of that out of Shanghai in late Mar.
CCL
Thank you Anne, for keeping us so well informed, daily for over two years.
New Deal democrat
Cases in the US increased to 46,400, up 9,900 or almost 30% from one week ago. Hospital admissions increased to 12,021, which is 2,000 above their low, but still below any other period of the pandemic. Deaths declined slightly to 377, another 9 month low (at their lowest last year, deaths were about 200).
Very few States reported yesterday, but two that did, NY and NJ, showed continued deceleration, up 11% and 12% respectively from one week ago, vs. 25% increases in the previous week. The Northeast as a whole is similar. I suspect the BA.2.12.1 wave will peak there in about a week.
If the US as a whole follows the pattern from NY and NJ, I continue to think this means a peak of 75,000 to 90,000 cases in about 3-4 weeks. If deaths are close to their lows now, that would mean an increase to about 1000 or so.
I am beginning to see tweets from experts about “exponential rise” again. This is only true up to a point. Waves actually follow “logistical” or “S” curves. First they rise exponentially, then arithmetically, then decelerate until they reach their peak.
What I do in these daily updates is pretty simple: I look for leading indicators, like States or countries where the wave first appeared, and check for long and how intense their S curve is. That’s a template for places where the variant will appear later. It’s certainly not perfect, but it’s been a good way to wrap my head around the facts, and not to succumb to nihilism.
Given the experience of the past year, we should probably make a working guess that new variants will appear about every three months, creating new waves of cases, but fewer deaths per capita as the population becomes ever less immunologically naive.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us
My wife and I have been in South Africa for about 3 month adopting a son. He’s 8 years old – she’s 50 and I’m 52. Neither of us have any comorbidities, well she has we’ll controlled hypertension. We both are vaxxed and boosted (she has 3 Pfizer doses, I have 2 Pfizer and one Moderns). Are they recommending healthy people in our age group get a second booster? Parenting and being in a foreign land has kept me out of the news loop more than I normally am, although given most of the news I’m not complaining.
germy
Hospital staff threatened after death of anti-vaxxer
germy
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us:
Anyone over 50 eligible for second booster
Baud
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us:
Very cool. Good luck with the adoption. I think they still haven’t decided on a recommendation for 50+, although I’m not sure.
mrmoshpotato
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us: From Walgreens:
COVID-19 Vaccine Update: CDC allows for a second booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines for certain groups 4 months after receiving the first booster. Patients age 50+ may schedule an appointment online now. Immunocompromised patients ages 12 through 49 may receive the second booster either by calling or by walk-in appointment.
lowtechcyclist
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us:
Looks like everyone else has chimed in about the 2nd booster, so I’ll just say good luck with the adoption!
SFAW
@CCL:
Absolutely agree. Also would like to thank YY_Sima Qian and Amir Khalid for their outstanding daily updates
Ten Bears
I pity the fool that makes sheep noises at me.
No, wait … I don’t
Suzanne
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us: Oooooh congratulations and good luck!
Tazj
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us: Congratulations, that’s very exciting. Good luck to you and your wife I hope everything works out well.
satby
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us: Congratulations on your new son!
Matt McIrvin
Cases and wastewater levels in the Boston area seem to genuinely be declining, from a peak far below that of the main Omicron wave. I’m not sure of the long-term significance of this but I’ll take it.
covidactnow.org changed all their reporting to put it in line with the CDC’s happy-talk Community Levels, which really irks me–big chunks of the country went from red to green overnight with no change in reality. It feels like they’re suppressing the direness of the situation, though you can still find the facts there if you dig.
We spent the last week vacationing in Seattle, which has been heading into a modest BA.2 wave much like Boston’s but doesn’t seem to be going vertical. Doing fun tourist things meant looong periods of time wearing an N95 mask to the point that my nose got chafed. For what it’s worth, I got no shit from people for this anywhere, either while traveling or on the ground. The trip home was after the great lifting of travel mask mandates and all the blow-ups that went down as a consequence. It seemed like about half of the airport and plane crowd (including airplane crews) was still masked–not the nightmare situation I was worried about where a masker would be a lone and beleaguered weirdo, though I imagine that is going on in red states.
I was overruled by my fellow travelers on staying out of restaurants and ended up just giving up and going along–there were some in the area that my family was really looking forward to visiting. Felt like rolling the dice every time, and in the back of my head, there was this Twitter voice judging me, but I pushed through the guilt because it was going to absolutely ruin everyone’s vacation if I kept fighting. We are all vaxxed and boosted to the maximum extent authorized (I’d gotten my second booster just a couple of weeks ago to prepare for this trip so I am probably full of antibodies).
As I’ve said before, it often feels to me like, compared to the people I know in real life (who are a bunch of generally science-believing liberals), I’m this insane, paranoid COVID obsessive to the point that it causes real friction, but compared to the people I know *on the Internet* I’m a reckless plague rat who is part of the problem. And that tension can be hard to live with.
New Deal democrat
@Matt McIrvin: You can still find the “community transmission” data, which is what I think you really want, here:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk
Matt McIrvin
…another situation I’ve been keeping an eye on is my old stomping grounds of northern Virginia–the wastewater surveillance there is showing a much bigger BA.2 spike than here, just in the past couple of weeks, but I’m not really seeing it to that extent in the case data, which is similar to the Northeast with a bit of a delay. It’s a little puzzling.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: I am a bit wary of inducing too much from a local slowdown because I know that all the previous waves had some periods of temporary slowdown or decline before they shot to the moon. In the Northeast last fall, if you recall, it seemed like we were simultaneously experiencing a clumpy and halting Delta wave AND a wildfire Omicron wave that swept through while the other one was still in progress, and it made the infection curve complicated. Just fitting a simple curve can deceive you.
Part of me is thinking, well, maybe we’re coming down off BA.2 but this BA.2.whatever scariant that is whacking central New York state is still coming to hit us, and the numbers will go back up then. But it’s not clear. The area in NYS seems to be at sort of a plateau, not really going vertical.
Matt McIrvin
…It does seem like the areas in NYS hit hardest by BA.2.12.1 are places that had a somewhat less bad experience with the big 2021-22 Omicron wave, which would fit the “lump of Omicron susceptibility” hypothesis, that this is mostly finding people who didn’t get it the first time. Of course I am personally in that lump so this is relevant to my interests.
UncleEbeneezer
“Because those motivations are all about psychological needs, arguing the facts around individual conspiracies will do little to shake people out of their beliefs. Moreover, “when you try to pull on one, the whole thing collapses for people,” van der Linden says. “So the resistance becomes much stronger.””
And this of course extends to Conservatives in general. So many are just completely beyond any reason/reality-based conversations. I know some people have Conservative friends/family and I just don’t know how you do it.
Kristine
Totally stealing that mating call comeback for all I hope to never have to use it.