Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

This blog will pay for itself.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

The words do not have to be perfect.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

I was promised a recession.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

You are here: Home / Balloon Juice / Monday Morning Open Thread: Big Pictures

Monday Morning Open Thread: Big Pictures

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It’s on the official calendar for this afternoon:

It’s not us reproductive-rights supporters who are out of step…

Reader Interactions

78Comments

  2. 2.

    Eolirin

    The shift with Hispanic Cathloics and Black Protestants seems really significant. If we had lost either group on this, and it was just barely a majority previously, it would have been much harder to successfully campaign on this.

    Those numbers going up means we can make this a centerpiece issue to drive turn out across our entire base. Hopefully they stay up and other polling bears this out

    Edit: The magnitude of that shift also suggests there’s an awareness that this is a racial issue, not just a women’s health issue. That it is about hurting minorities in addition to hurting women. White (non Evangelical) Christians didn’t move very much.

  3. 3.

    Baud

    @Eolirin:

    Which is why you’re seeing a big push to get people pre-disapointed with Dems on abortion.

    Can’t fight if you’ve already given up.

  6. 6.

    Spanky

    Protip: The picture in the Reuters tweet has 4-pointed diffraction spikes, meaning it is probably Hubble, but just as likely a ground-based telescope with the same 4-vaned support for its secondary mirror or sensor at prime focus. With its hexagonal design, the JWST pics will have 6-pointed diffraction spikes.

    In the coming months we’ll probably be seeing more and more of the latter, but it’s an easy way to tell the difference

    ETA The diffraction spikes only happen around point sources, i.e. stars. Nebulae and galaxies don’t show spikes, but often have foreground stars that will, so look for those.

  7. 7.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    @Tony G:

    Funding for this sort of boondoggle needs to be shut down, by litigation if necessary. The findings violate my sincere Christian beliefs in a young earth creation….

  10. 10.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I remember the awe I felt seeing the 1st clear images from the Hubble. This will be incredible!

  12. 12.

    PAM Dirac

    Full day tomorrow with the Jan6 hearings starting at 10am and the NASA JWST release at 10:30. I figure NASA on the big screen for the detailed pictures and Jan6 on the tablet for mostly audio and following the comments at BJ. One of my retirement science activities has been working with Exoplanet Watch, so I’ll be especially interested in the WASP-96 b spectrum. That’s not just pretty pictures, that’s chemistry!

  13. 13.

    schrodingers_cat

    I am seeing a coordinated campaign against both Biden and Harris on Twitter by many blue checks. Someone is scared that Ds are going to win in November.

    And the out of touch activists that Biden was talking about are the green wearing weird communist cult who tell everyone not to vote. The same group that was amplified by AOC, MSNBC and by the NYT.

    NARAL and PP have disavowed them

    The name of the group is RiseUp4Abortion rights and they are the ones telling people not to vote or donate for the Democrats.

  14. 14.

    Jinchi

    Obvious political implications aside, this is really weird. Usually public opinion *follows* the Court; if they rule for, polling goes up; if they rule against, polling goes down. I thought I’d read this backwards! https://t.co/QCmAVyAEWG
    — ProofOfBurden (@ProofofBurden) July 8, 2022

    I think when the question was asked in the past, a lot of people were assuming their own exceptions:

    ‘I think abortion should be illegal,  (after the first 15 weeks; except for the life of the mother; except in the case of rape or incest; but the woman should not be prosecuted for murder; etc. etc. etc.)‘.

    Now we’ve got women arrested for having a miscarriage and Republicans are openly arguing that women should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of their ectopic pregnancy.

  15. 15.

    kindness

    I am upbeat about November’s elections, regardless of how the GD NY Times is trying to screw our democracy….again.  I’m upbeat because most Americans think the Supreme Court over-reached wildly this last term and Republicans know it.  I can tell this because Republicans nervously keep screeching that the Supreme Court didn’t over-reach, acting like that makes it so.  That’ll only work for their base, not everyone else.

  16. 16.

    Ken

    @Spanky: The picture in the Reuters tweet has 4-pointed diffraction spikes, meaning it is probably Hubble…. With its hexagonal design, the JWST pics will have 6-pointed diffraction spikes.

    Nice cover story, but I already know the real reason – they used up all the mock images Kubrick produced, and went to J. J. Abrams for new ones. And you know how he is with lens flares.

  18. 18.

    Geminid

    @kindness: Republicans cannot win purple states and purple districts with just their base. The Dobbs decision could be a big problem in these places, as you say.

  20. 20.

    taumaturgo

    “Republicans refer to their most involved voters as ‘the base,’ and deliver for them, while Democrats refer to theirs as ‘some activists’ and ignore them. This is why they lose.”

    Good news everyone. This should really stimulate base.

  21. 21.

    Cameron

    This could be a very unusual election, and I actually find that both interesting and exciting.

  23. 23.

    Gin & Tonic

    For those who wonder how russian occupation of Ukraine will go

    “The head of the [Russian occupied] Veliky Burluk administration in the Kharkiv region died due to a car explosion” https://t.co/lA4tZWF3DO
    — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 11, 2022

    Cars can be dangerous, you know. Have to be careful they don’t explode.

  27. 27.

    trollhattan

    @Ken: I have a tourist package of “moon” dust I bought in Burbank one year. If you know what I mean and I know you do.

  32. 32.

    C Stars

    @Cameron: Now that’s a sci-fi book I’d put on my hold list at the library

     

    ETA And has anyone written a book riffing on the Jewish Space Lasers theory? That would be a fun read…

  33. 33.

    Geminid

    @schrodingers_cat: Among others, @Josecanyousee has been doing a good job on Twitter exposing this group, and referring viewers to deeper dives by researchers. One interesting fact they’ve come up with is that this group was only incorporated on June 16th, and not as a 503(c) outfit but as a business.

    @Josecanyousee has a very good twitter account. He’s a gay Latino millennial living in the San Francisco Bay area. He’s an ardent Democrat, and seems to be in a couple different amateur sports leagues.

  37. 37.

    Jinchi

    The President and the Vice President receive a briefing from National Aeronautics and Space Administration

    That news release should be worth a few new conspiracy theories. Just why are these pictures being hidden from the rest of us?

  38. 38.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    @Ken: Reminds me of the story about how NASA brought on Kubrick to shoot the fake footage of the moon landings, but he insisted on shooting on location…

  45. 45.

    PAM Dirac

    @Immanentize: Funny the Committee site just says 10am. I guess eastern bias. The CBS site does explicitly say 1pm ET. Speaking of times, you can tell that JWST isn’t being primarily run out of JPL as the press conference is 7:30 am Pacific time.

  49. 49.

    Geminid

    @eclare: The captious commenter probably refers to the statement that White House communications director Kate Bedingfield put out Saturday:

       Joe Biden’s goal in responding to Dobbs is not to satisfy some activists who have been consistently out of step with the mainstream of the Democratic Party. It’s to deliver help to women in danger and to assemble a coalition to defend a woman’s right to choose now, just as he assembled such a coalition to win during the 2020 campaign.

    This made the “activists” howl. “But we’re the base!” they say. But I say Ms. Bedingfield got it right.

  50. 50.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Old School:

    Well, that’s authoritative, then.

    Fact-based too: the Dems “always” lose, as in the presidency, the House, and (minimally, but Georgia!) the Senate in 2020.

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Heh. Said commenter specializes in drive-by potshots, so maybe not quite an ally. :)

  51. 51.

    Cameron

    @C Stars: Dunno about books, but before he became a Trump advisor, Stephen Miller led the very successful Steve Miller Klezmer Band.  Surely you remember the refrain from their biggest hit, Space Laser?  “Got a space laser/Bet you weren’t ready for that/Got a space laser/I’m sure you know where it’s at.”

  52. 52.

    Immanentize

    @Geminid: The Dem base that was critical to getting Biden elected were Women of Color. Biden knows his base, and issue advocates (who I support!!) are not the base.

  57. 57.

    taumaturgo

    @schrodingers_cat: ​
     

    According to the Times’ poll, slightly more than a quarter — 26% — of Democrats said they want Biden to be their presidential nominee in 2024.
    By contrast, 64% of Democrats said they want a different candidate.
    Overall, voters gave Biden a measly 33% approval rating in the survey.

    As the Times’ Shane Godmacher pointed out, 94% of voters under 30 said they want a different nominee.

    Me thinks you and you and your fellow poster may be baseless come November.

  58. 58.

    Geminid

    @Immanentize: The Monica Keane Tweet linked in a comment above is a good example of people equating the activists on the left side of the party to those that are considered the Republican party’s base. It may be true that the radicals became the “base” of the Republican party, but I think that has been to the party’s detriment electorally, especially in battleground states and districts. I’ve seen this in my own state.

  59. 59.

    Immanentize

    @O. Felix Culpa: This is my top beef of the week:

    First, I totally understand the incredible frustration and anger of abortion advocates as this horror slowly unfolded. So many were sounding the alarm long before Dobbs was delivered. Of course, many others completely ignored those signs and warnings and complained bitterly in 2016 that urging a vote for Hillary because Roe was on the line was “hysterical” and “blackmail.”

    Now, I don’t know the exact Venn on this, but it seems that many of the same people who were doing all they could against Hillary in 2016, are the ones complaining about Biden/Dems current failure to do anything.

    I worked a long time on issue advocacy. First anti-death penalty work, then juvenile sentencing justice, but always criminal justice reform. I never blamed others for failing to make things happen on “my” particular issues. I (and a whole lot of others) knew it would be up to us to build a coalition, do work in States, and with luck (which sometimes we had and sometimes we didn’t) get some law action in our favor.

    The current crop of advocates seem to be blaming Dems for the current situation? Why? The Dems didn’t do it and had limited scope to stop it. More ink is spilled on “bad Dems” than the actual really bad Republicans. This is backwards. The failure in my mind on abortion at this point is in large part on the now-loud advocates who did not do the actual work necessary to prevent/change the trajectory that they say they saw coming. Where is the State by State legislative movement backed by scores of people wilii g to go to legislative sessions. I think the advocates thought NARAL (often problematic) and Planned Parenthood had it covered. For different reasons, they didn’t and that was obvious at least during the Obama admin.

    Stacy Abrams didn’t blame everybody else in the Dem party for her failure in the Gov’s race, she rolled up her sleeves and created a vast movement of voters that gave us the Senate (barely) that current noisy advocates deride. Moms Demand didn’t blame everything on the feckless Dems for the gun laws (although they have chosen some targets) they have created a nation-wide movent to attack the real wrongdoer (NRA and GOP) and mobilized in States to change laws or prevent bad laws from replacing good laws. Etc.

    So, until certain advocates blame themselves in part for failures to organize and mobilize, outside of complaining that there is no mobilization, I am going to feel more comfortable with attacking the real targets and trying to support Democrats whenever and however I can.

  62. 62.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Immanentize:

    Well put. Which is to say, I agree 100%.

    I give credit to a group of former Sanders supporters (plus others) in New Mexico who shifted their activity after the Disaster of 2016 to getting good state legislators elected and progressive legislation passed. They and many local Democrats were instrumental in getting an old state law that criminalized abortion repealed. It took six years, including working to replace a few conservadems in the state Senate to get the necessary votes. Their work serves as a model on how to get progressive reforms enacted.

    FWIW, I distinguish these former Sanders supporters from the “dirtbag left,” who are also active in the area and who, curiously, only attack Democrats and do no actual work towards their alleged goals. Quelle surprise.

  63. 63.

    Baud

    @Immanentize:

    issue advocates (who I support!!) are not the base.

     
    Issue advocates also have no options and no leverage, unless they want to be seen a monsters.

  64. 64.

    C Stars

    I think of the lefty screechers on Twitter as similar to the people who used Facebook as an excuse to remark on their every single medical problem and slight sore throat of the day. Some people just use Twitter as a place to exercise their screechiness. Many of them, if you dig deeper, say they are of course going to vote, and vote for Dems, in November. But in the short term they just have a need to be shrill and indignant for an audience.

    All this said, of course I share many of their concerns, but @Immanentize: is right, The current crop of advocates seem to be blaming Dems for the current situation? Why? The Dems didn’t do it and had limited scope to stop it. More ink is spilled on “bad Dems” than the actual really bad Republicans. 

  65. 65.

    MisterForkbeard

    @schrodingers_cat: Just pie the troll and move on, man. Quite literally everything he does here is about saying Democrats are the real problem and Republicans (whom he does not support) aren’t really at fault.

    He’s just aping Glenn Greenwald.

  67. 67.

    Baud

    @Immanentize:

    I’m saying that advocates are stuck with Dems. They have no other options.

    The vast majority understand that despite the occasional pushback. A few online advocates maybe do not.

  68. 68.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Gin & Tonic: ​

    Cars can be dangerous, you know. Have to be careful they don’t explode.

    And it wasn’t even a Tesla. :)

    ETA: Beaten to it (by hours!) by Immamentize.  Man, some days I just can’t keep up. :)

  69. 69.

    Another Scott

    @Immanentize: +1

    The 1960s civil rights movement, MADD, etc., and the Innocence Project now are examples of how grass-roots stuff works.  It takes actual action from actual people.  Griping on Twitter or Substack for clicks is not a substitute.

    Thanks for your efforts.  They’re important.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  70. 70.

    Immanentize

    @Baud: oh, with that I agree completely. For serious advocates (or advocates serious about getting their issue addressed in a progressive fashion) there is only one partner available: The Democrats.

  73. 73.

    lowtechcyclist

    Obvious political implications aside, this is really weird. Usually public opinion *follows* the Court; if they rule for, polling goes up; if they rule against, polling goes down. I thought I’d read this backwards!

    Let’s go out and win us a few Senators!

    Also, anyone heard of the States Project?  They seem to have a pretty good read on which state legislatures we could make a difference in this fall, so that if the Bogus Scotus in 2023 gives state legislatures the untrammeled power to decide their states’ electoral votes in 2024, we’ll be in half-decent shape anyway.  What I’m really wondering is, are they a worthwhile place to send some money to?

  74. 74.

    taumaturgo

    “Dirtbag left” I wonder if the abolitionist, the suffrage movement members, the red neck pro labor union members, the civil rights members, the Vietnam War protesters, the gay rights’ protesters were called dirtbags by the so-called moderates of the era. Maybe the Nixon Democrats started the trend of the repudiation of the New deal, liberals, and liberalism. Heck, scared to dead, DINO’s ditched liberals for “progressive.” It was a great decoy that fitted their lack of convictions. If one is not a liberal in the political spectrum, one becomes a non dirtbag? Today, the senile party leaders and their elites enablers have drifted so far right that it has become a pale version of the old time republicans, a Rip Van Winkle, an institution asleep from another era that refuses to see current reality. Be that as it may, thanks to the gods that dirtbags persisted, lost a lot, won some and the struggles goes on. At least, 94% of under 30 seem to think so.

  75. 75.

    livewyre

    @taumaturgo: Don’t be quite so quick to flatter yourself with their company. The difference is that, unlike you, they didn’t campaign against the party that represented them.

  77. 77.

    AM in NC

    @taumaturgo: What I do not understand is why concentrate fire on the only political entity actual capable of moving policy in your preferred direction.

    I mean, I want Democrats to do more, of course, but I think the way to have more leftist/porogressive policies enacted in the real world is to have more and more Democrats in office  The more Dems there are, the more leftist the party can become at its edges and the more the average elected Democrat will be progressive-minded.

    And the only way to get more Democrats elected is to stop attacking them and depressing potential Democratic votes, and turn that rage on the people who are actively fighting against your policy preferences.

    Fight the fascists first, last, and always. Put Democrats into power wherever we can, and then use primaries to elect the most progressive/leftist people you can. Tearing down elected Democrats for never being good enough doesn’t solve anything. We want to solve stuff.

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