‘Tis a mystery!
Democrats may be sort of lukewarm on Biden, but you know who Democrats like a lot? Democrats. https://t.co/aH6torADmZ
— Philip Bump (@pbump) July 21, 2022
Couldn’t possibly have anything to do with Our Beloved National Media chewing on Biden’s ankles non-stop, of course. And yet, Sen. Schatz:
Still, at least we’re not Republicans…
Fox News Extended Universe Fan Con https://t.co/k1CblR2QkN
— vocational politics stan account (@Convolutedname) July 22, 2022
GOP small-dollar donations via WinRed are flat this year, while Democrats' have increased substantially the last 2 months on ActBluehttps://t.co/LdteF1mLxZ pic.twitter.com/5PmehmpTPb
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) July 21, 2022
Have Democrats met Democrats?
I, for one, as a Yellow Dog Democrat, am grateful for Biden’s tenure as president. He was the right man for the time, stable, experienced, dedicated to public service. I do however wish he would light a fire under Merrick Garland’s a$$, however. And fire Louis DeJoy. Just sayin’.
I really enjoy Twitter; so much great content.
And reupping my comment from below in the hopes of G&T seeing it:
@Baud: I am often reminded of Pogo, “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
Nobody is a better Democrat than Biden. We are lukewarm to him? Really?
Ohioan here. By the way, Ohio diners are mostly where small business owner Republicans eat. Too expensive for Democrats. Those places are pricey. Not worth going to unless networking with other small business owners.
Democrats want to be popular, and Biden is not right now.
Good Morning, Everyone😊😊😊
@Baud: We need to stop following MSM. He couldn’t have done better than he has. He needs us backing him, and we always fail. (Not meaning to be a bitch but calling out Goku. Inflation! But you have a dependable job, and could get a better one.)
Dependable job, with better one if this one fails. That wasn’t where I was in tough times in my past. Volker recession in Michigan where I was had 20% unemployment.
@Baud: am I missing something on these polls? I’ve just assumed that, among Republicans, Biden always polls at zero or in the single digits, so anything less than 100% with Democrats is going to average out at 50% at most.
If anyone I know raises polling as proof Biden is in trouble, I worry aloud he’ll be voted out after only two years.
…and wait for a response…
I like Joe but am not automatically against the idea of trading him in for a younger model in 2024.
But my message to the squishy Dems in my orbit is that we won’t have that option unless we do well in the midterms. IF we hold the House and get enough new Senators to get past the Manchima veto, our 2024 prospects could look very good indeed regardless of whether Biden runs again.
Right. Inflation is worldwide, so it has nothing to do with Biden. It’s just something we have to get through. Dems have problems dealing with imperfect circumstances though. Our natural inclination is that someone is always to blame. It’s an attitude the GOP enjoys exploiting.
Biden isn’t on the ballot in November. The issue is whether voters will be saddle him with a GOP Congress for two years. It happened to Clinton and Obama.
@sab: he may be a real person, but he trolls us with that shit. Ignore him.
Damn, when did diners become pricey? They used to be the sort of place where you could get a cheap meal that was an actual meal, rather than burger, fries, and a drink.
@Baud: well, Clinton and Obama didn’t have a rogue SCOTUS enraging people either. I have high hopes for November.
Jeez. I’ve never been called a troll before.
I try not to make predictions. I hope for the best, obviously. But my hopes are neither high nor low.
I bet a bunch of private equity folks bought out all the diners and jacked up the prices.
@Baud: Keep working at it. It might happen.
@lowtechcyclist: When was the last time you went to one? I too remember when they were a cheap breakfast. 50 years ago. Not so now. McDonalds is much better.
Elon Musk is the greatest person who ever lived.
Major Biden weighs in on the Secret Service scandal.
@satby: Do you mean baud? I don’t think baud trolls us. I think he makes us respond to what ‘s out there. Polar opposite of “la la la I can’t here you.”
@Baud: Damn. And I just responded to satby that we should be serious about you. Fucking annoying troll that you aspire to be.
Gotta make things even for “both sides,” after all. So, naturally, they need to rip Biden down every day the same way they had to sanitize Trump’s insanity every day. Only way to achieve parity.
@Kropacetic: Nobody chewed on Trump’s ankles because he couldn’t tolerate pets. Big red line in my world.
Happy Saturday, you crazy, wound-up kids!
@sab:Pie filter finally.
Gin & Tonic
@satby: I’m up. What would you like to know?
Tru dat. It’s largely a combination of supply chain disruptions due to Covid, grain supply disruptions due to Russia, and petroleum price disruptions thanks to a combination of Russia, the Saudis being pro-Trump, and our own energy companies raising prices to increase profits. Oh yeah, and housing prices are going crazy.
There’s not a whole lot a U.S. President can do about any of that.
It’s been chafing me the whole time that the media’s been using the word ‘inflation’ to describe what’s going on. IANA economist, but my understanding is that this isn’t the set of circumstances that that label generally applies to: people (at the national level or beyond) getting paid enough money that they can’t produce as much stuff as they can buy, forcing prices up to close that gap.
And in the olden days, the Fed would address this by raising interest rates, effectively making stuff more expensive by that means, reducing demand and reducing the upward pressure on prices along with it.
Doing that now might have some effect, but it would largely be a mismatch. It doesn’t address the causes of price increases.
Putting a lot more money and ingenuity into fighting Covid worldwide would help, but obviously not immediately. Sweet-talking the Saudis, which Biden has done, has apparently helped. Building out the infrastructure to support electric cars would certainly help, also not immediately but over time.
Which all goes to say that if these are the tools that would do some good, this is not your grandfather’s ‘inflation.’ It’s something very different, and it bugs the hell out of me that it’s being described as ‘inflation’ when the standard tools that work to cool down inflation really wouldn’t help more than incidentally here.
@lowtechcyclist: That’s still the way that diners are here in New Jersey. Jersey diners do have their share of customers who get all of their “information” from Fox News, but they’re easy to ignore.
@Baud: At least in Northern New Jersey most diners are still owned by Greek families — as famously parodied by John Belushi in the seventies.
@Tony G: That was the Billy Goat in Chicago. Belushi was from Wheaton and two of my buddies from high school were close friends to the point that he used their names in skits.
I jusr pied Balk! WTF is wrong with me?!a
It’s Imm’s birthday.
@raven: Hooray, another trip around. Happy Birthday, Imm.
@sab: If I wanted to report on Republican small business owners I’d visit a Starbucks. Reporters seem to favor diners though; it’s as if they are reporting for National Geographic, investigating the exotic “heartland.”
I went by Maybelle’s yesterday after work to grab a cheeseburger (Maybelle’s replaced the old Dyke Store but that’s another story). There were six guys hanging out at two tables pushed together, shooting the shit. They all looked like they were retired, but they also looked like middle class voters and would have made an interesting “focus group.”
The Thin Black Duke
Working class heroes who work in diners can’t afford to eat in diners.
@Baud: Voter’s saddled Harry Truman with a Republican Congress in 1946. Republicans went into the election down 242-191 and came out up 246-188.
Then came the 1948 election:
Democrats picked up 75 seats that year. Gerrymandering has reduced the number of battleground seats and 75-vote swings are almost impossible now. The chief of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee recently cautioned ambitious colleagues that there were only twenty or so seats in play (I believe this was Rep. Tom Emmers as reported by the Washington Post).
5:30 here on the left coast. I’ve been up since 4 when our Martin tried to hork up a hairball next to my head.
As I while away this hot day as well as my time on God’s grey earth:
I am considering some land and a beat up farm house in Upstate NY — on the Northside of Lake Oneida in the woods. West of Rome. Any comments about such a crazy thing?
@The Thin Black Duke: How many of those small business heroes write off those meals as business expenses?
@sab: Major Biden was right! He knew who to bite! He should be allowed to roam free on the Senate floor. Manchin would not be so smug then!
@Immanentize: It depends. Are we invited?
Congratulations on another comparatively successful trip around the sun.
@Immanentize: Go for it. The house may be beat up but it was probably built well originally. Renovation can be fun so long as you don’t have to do too much at once. Obviously the roof is key.
If the area is anything like Cortland County, its some beautiful country.
@topclimber: I don’t mind a younger model, but keep in mind the younger crowd is Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, Whitmer, etc.
Warren, Inslee, et al aren’t really much younger.
@raven: Thanks, my friend. I am pledging/willing all future years to be fabulous.
@The Thin Black Duke: And small business owners who often put in 80 hour workweeks tend to lunch at their desks instead of at eateries.
@The Thin Black Duke: I’m just gonna have to get used to the idea that I’ll never hear a server in a diner shout out an order for ”Adam & Eve on a raft—wreck ‘em!”
Here in Foreign Speaking Nation (which has plenty of anchovies), we have inflation and labor shortages too, which I gleefully remind my Brandon-shouting high school friends on Facebook.
Anyway, for the record I’m *not* worried about Biden hurting our chances this November and keep pushing back on Democratic and progressive friends who should know better.
I think it’s a nationwide phenomenon. I’ve never been in a diner where I couldn’t order a spinach and feta omelette. Curious how certain small businesses come to be dominated by particular immigrant groups for no apparent cultural reason.
@Spanky: All of them, Katie.
I was impressed by this argument and wish only that it could get traction.
@Searcher: Agreed. You can add Gavin Newsom and Stacey Abrams to the list.
@Spanky: absolutely invited. Hiking, fishing, hunting, relaxing. All such outdoorsy things approved of. It has a trout brook and a beaver pond with the biggest damn lodge I have seen in the middle. As is the nature custom, the beaver pond is also a blue heron rookery as they love to build their nests on the ghost stumps of the trees killed by the damming.
Read up about how Tippi Hedren is the reason that Vietnamese immigrants own so many nail salons.
Some of the clips I’ve seen from Tucker Carlson’s show on Thursday (while the J6 hearings were going on) were just off. the. hook. Flat-out “up is down, black is white, night is day” kind of stuff. Did y’all know Fox stands for truth in not airing the J6 Committee hearing on Thursday because (in Tucker’s words), “we’re not liars”?
Amanda Marcotte had a good take on all of it in Salon:
O. Felix Culpa
Do eeeet! And HBD2U!!!
@Geminid: Cortland County is very pretty. This is probably a bit flatter than Cortland as it is just 1/2 mile from the lake.
Fun fact — my Grandmother went to Cortland Normal in, oh, the 19-teens.
@Geminid: Ehh, my experience with vernacular architecture in the Hudson Valley is that while, if it survived for a century or two, there may be a certain robustness to it, it can be a real crapshoot on a century worth of amateur construction, maintenance and renovations.
I’ve seen floors patched from the bottom (with a million screws and nails holding a piece of plywood up), diagonal braces cut to put in doors or windows, floor heights that are more suggestions than rules, sills converted to load-bearing beams as the foundation was expanded…
If it’s still standing and not too rotted, you can probably bring it back to service for another century, and you never have to feel guilty that your amateur skills might not be up to the standard set, but I wouldn’t necessarily call an old house *well-built* without ripping it down to the studs first to see where the bodies are buried.
@bjacques: I think that some “progressives” are still sore over the outcome of the 2020 primary, and they want a do over. The skepticism of other Democrats towards Biden might reflect the adage, “the grass is always greener on the other side.”
@Baud: Don’t mess with Big Diner. It’s a powerful lobby.
@Immanentize: Then I’m assuming there’s really no question as to whether you’ll pull the trigger.
One question, though. How is the local healthcare system?
@sab: We in this case probably means our progressive betters in the media, Twitter and blog front pagers.
@Immanentize: Are you already in or familiar with the area and its local politics?
I moved far enough upstate from NYC that Republicans are competitive in local elections — part of what had been Faso and Delgado’s district — but it’s not too bad; the county and town and most of my neighbors lean blue, so doesn’t feel like I’m surrounded.
Is where you are looking an enclave of blue in that neck of NY, or are you signing up to be a missionary to the hinterlands?
@Immanentize: Happy Birthday! (again)!
I know there are site limitations forcing you to limit tweet embeds, but it would be nice if you could provide links to all the tweets somehow.
I’ve lived in the woods at the end of a gravel road where two rivers meet for the last 20 years. Kayaked the big cold river and swam in the warm small one yesterday. The only draw back is most my neighbors are Republicans..
@Immanentize: In addition to your current home, or instead of?
@Baud: Compared to the things I have been called on this blog, troll is a compliment!
@Searcher: They at least had better trees to saw lumber out of, back when the house was built.
@Immanentize: The Hawk be blowin up there!
@Searcher: This place is an 1860s era farm home that was redone in the 1970s (new electric, baseboard heat, kitchen, bathrooms, and some walls.) The foundation is stone and the basement is half slab and half dirt floor. The coal bin is gone, but the corral for the cistern is still down there (but the cistern is not.) It needs a new roof immediately. Not leaking, but it has a layer of cedar shakes topped by two layers of asphalt shingles. Original lath, not decked. I am certain that there are plenty of hidden horror, but maybe some fun discoveries too?
@Searcher: I wouldn’t make that a deal breaker. Lowtechcyclist and I live in a Maryland county where 70% of primary votes cast this week were Republican. It’s still quite livable.
Indian church (temple) lady that is my MIL has planned elebenty religious ceremonies because husband kitteh and I are going to India together after almost 20 years.
God (Ceiling Cat) help us all.
President Biden has done a remarkable job IMHO. He was handed the a$$ end of a feces sandwich on attaining office. The worst president ever left office involuntarily after installing a supreme court which functions like an inquisition, a senate which functions as obstructionist and a portion of the population who don’t seem to look to a better future but ache for a troglodyte past. Despite this President Biden has managed to restart the economy, unemployment is low, vaccines are available to those who understand their use and importance and he has walked a tightrope providing support to Ukraine while not escalating the scope of the war. I shudder to think what Ukraine and a large part of Europe would look like today had tfg remained in office.
@Immanentize: Do it! Just bear in mind you will be traveling back in time and to the deep South in terms of people’s attitudes. Got-damned beautiful place, though.
@Immanentize: Our current house is a tad older than that with 1970s updates and additions. The 1970s work is where the horrors lie.
“Betters” reeks of projection.
@Spanky: i have thought about that quite a bit — 30 minutes to Rome (big air base there) and about 40 minutes driving to Syracuse medical center. Not like Boston! But 1/2 hour was my target time to emergency care.
@Immanentize: Where’s Ozark when we need him???
@Spanky: Exactly! Our house and rental both were seriously fucked up in the 70’s. I suspect that wiring needs updating.
@WaterGirl: in addition, but I would soon sell this and get an apartment on the commuter line to still work at the Uni. in Boston.
@topclimber: I have seen the clusterfuck of trying to trade in for a different model over an incumbent President in primaries and I want none of it. Unless Joe choose not to run for health reasons and enthusiastically promotes Kamala in 2024 we will lose. We do not have the option of choosing someone else and winning and anyone who thinks we do in a dupe or a troll. I am sorry to be so blunt but there are people here who will tell you about being sorry now about votes for Nader etc. You should also ask about Kennedy’s run against Carter. That was a disaster. And it gave Reagan the appearance of an inevitable winner. People jumped on the bandwagon and liked feeling on the big winning team. It snowballed. I think that may also be why Reagan famously said republicans shouldn’t attack republicans.
@raven: Yep. Lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario can reach there too.
@Spanky: Ha! Too true
@Gvg: You are absolutely right.
@Raven: exactly. That guy is such a slacker. Letting me down by not showing up on time for this consult!
Gin & Tonic
@Immanentize: My dear wife *loves* the Finger Lakes area and keeps talking about a second home there. Me, I like it here. I don’t think I’ve ever lived more than a half-hour from salt water, and not sure I really want to. But this sounds like you’ve already decided.
Just One More Canuck
@Kelly: Martin? That seems a little out of character for him. There are others here who I could see doing that , but not him.
Oh, you mean a pet? My bad.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Immanentize: My sister lives in Rome. I guess that counts as a plu
ETA: Happy birthday!
@Immanentize: Happy Day!!
O. Felix Culpa
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Skepticat: I talked to my brother in MN this week. He’s a retired OB/GYN and we were talking about the Dobbs decision. He immediately talked about people imposing their religious beliefs on others. That was how he saw it too
like Tom Lehrer, calculate your age in centigrade
and may you stay forever young
@Immanentize: Another alternative would be to buy that land and build a new house on it…. which could of course be done at any point. There seems to be the widely accepted idea that older construction is superior to modern, but of course the reality is more complicated. Some things were probably better then (framing, masonry), but other things are better now (energy efficiency, waterproofing).
@Immanentize: Upstate NY is very underrated. The locals tend to be very friendly and as long as you don’t mind 4 real seasons you will like the climate. That area does get a lot of snow, are you into cross country skiing? You will be very close to the Adirondacks, which is almost heaven. Given it’s NY it’s a blue government at the state level, the schools will be funded and there are services for those in needed. Finally, you should be within shooting distance of a Wegmans, best grocery stores on earth.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Jeffro: In the cafe in my bldg, there’s been low key tension between the FOX fanatics and some others over what should be on the TV. Last week, someone set it to FOX and then yanked the battery from the remote. I noticed yesterday that it was on some other channel, one showing “Bonanza.” I’m guessing management decided they’d had enough
@Immanentize: Happy birthday!
@Gvg: The only people I see speculating about this are horse race pundtwits and the diehard fans of the two New England senators who ran for President in 2020.
@Immanentize: How is the road? Our half mile gravel road in privately maintained which has been me collecting voluntary donations to buy gravel, occasionally hire a grader and filling potholes with a shovel for 20 years.
The Thin Black Duke
@Gvg: I recall another Republican president who said, “A house divided cannot stand.”
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
I’ve been saying that for years.
I think NARAL was too frightened to go there from the start.
@Gvg: It is Joe’s if he wants it. But he might forego the opportunity for a second term for either health reasons or to pass the torch to a new generation. The latter may prove easier to do in 2024 than in 2028, when the GOP will have had four more years to rid themselves of TFG taint.
If we get past 2022 we do not have to be desperate that only he can win in 2024. That was not the case in 2020.
@Immanentize: That’s a thick sandwich on top of the rafters! A dumpster load for sure.
The “lathe” (skip sheathing?) may still be serviceable. Skip sheathing stays dryer than plywood does.
Depending on your budget, a metal roof is a good option. The coatings are very durable now. That’s a long term investment though. The less expensive route would be laying plywood over the sheathing, then a layer of roofing felt, and then standard shingles. That could hold up for a couple decades minimum, depending on roof pitch. Good flashing is key here.
The Thin Black Duke
@topclimber: I wouldn’t be surprised if Governor Newsom runs for the presidency in 2024.
@Dorothy A. Winsor: A fist fight among septuagenarians is an ugly thing.
@Wanderer: All of this plus getting us out of the farce that was Afghanistan relatively unscathed. For that alone, I adore Joe Biden.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Spanky: It’s ugly before it even starts!
Dorothy A. Winsor
@EarthWindFire: What’s the overlap between the people who want to dump Biden and the ones who want to get rid of Pelosi?
And which team are they playing for?
@The Thin Black Duke: Agree! That was obvious to me at his very first Covid briefing in 2020. :-)
@Wanderer: PLEASE FRONT PAGE THIS EXCELLENT COMMENT!!!
I love how the 2024 speculation leapfrogs over the sitting VP.
@Dorothy A. Winsor: If it were a Venn diagram, it’d be a perfect circle IMO. Whatever team they’re playing for, it isn’t for America as a democracy.
@The Thin Black Duke:
The Republicans of today would chase that guy out of the party, alas.
@schrodingers_cat: I’ve noticed that too. Even though she has the strong backing of the most consistent Dem voting constituency. Gee, wonder why those might be related?
Edited: I mean among the pundits. Twitter and tv
A very happy birthday to Imm and (belatedly) to Dorothy A. Winsor. And anyone else who is celebrating around now.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Immanentize: In all seriousness, my sister has lived in Rome for years because it was the last place my BIL was stationed and they just stayed. She was a nurse and worked in the hospital ER there before she quit when they bought the Subway store (which my nephew now runs). Additionally, my mother spent the last few years of her life in Rome, so they have experience with senior care there. So they could probably tell you things about the medical care there.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@SiubhanDuinne: Thank you. Frankly, another birthday is kind of sobering.
@EarthWindFire: They are still sour that their favorites came up short in the 2020 primaries. Joe Biden is going to the nominee in 2024 and if he doesn’t run for any reason it will be Kamala Harris.
We need to focus on the midterms now not 2024 speculation.
1) Happy birthday!
2) If/when you’re seeking a crotchety caretaker for the property….
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
There’s a cure for that, you know.
The Thin Black Duke
@WaterGirl: Another clue pointing out his growing ambitions is Newsom taking steps to expand his national profile by taking shots at DeSantis and Abbott.
@zhena gogolia: AGREED. THIS IS SUCCINCT AND EFFECTIVE.
@EarthWindFire: Yep, the Obama coalition is our surest path to victory. Which is why Harris was the first of about 10 names mentioned by commenters here. She would be a good choice in 2024 and perhaps an even better one in 2028.
If someone is excluding Harris from the short list, it doesn’t seem to be anybody here. Perhaps an imaginary purity pony is spreading that rumor?
As for Nancy Smash, she just might be ready to turn things over to Hakim Jeffries when she turns 84 in 2024. He will be 54.
For what it’s worth, I think Joe Biden is the Democratic party’s best hope in 2024. He’s staking a strong claim simply by doing the best job possible in these circumstances. Unless, God forbid, he develops a debilitating health issue in the next two years, he should run.
@topclimber: I have a hunch that the top three Democratic House leaders are going to stand down after the midterms and make way for the next generation. Pelosi will hold her cards close to her vest until after the election, but I think the decision has been made, without regard to control of the House.
Then it will be a busy ten days or so until the incoming Democratic Caucus holds elections, but I expect the team of Jeffries, Katherine Clark, and Pete Aguilar will come out on top. These three hold the 5th, 4th, and 6th ranking Caucus positions currently.
Gin & Tonic
@schrodingers_cat: My dear wife, a normie, believes Kamala Harris is unelectable in today’s America.
I’m with Whoopi on this one. “For people to say ‘you’re uninspiring’, fuck you! What are you inspiring?”
I’d also note that the people cheering hardest for a Primary challenge or another candidate in 2024 are 1.) Republicans, 2.) Unreliable Independents, 3.) Russian bots and 4.) Progressives who always somehow manage to root against the Democratic Party. People who are loyal to the Democratic Party and active members and believers in the Democratic Coalition are generally NOT the ones bashing Biden, hand-wringing about his age, etc. It’s the people who are NEVER HAPPY with the Party, that are driving this. And we all know who they are. And never forget that none of them predicted Biden would be the nominee in 2020 when Bernie and Warren were leading in the early states. This whole Biden-needs-to-step-aside is just the 2022 version of Hillary’s Emails. It’s designed to hurt the Dem Party, not help it. We know that because Russia is amplifying it just like they did in 2016. Don’t take the bait. Don’t add fuel to the fire. Biden beat Trump/The GOP in 2020 when everything was on the line and he can do it again, and the haters damn well know it, which is why they are obsessively pushing this bullshit.
Oregon Shakespeare Festival shutting down for a week due to too many staff ill with Covid.
@UncleEbeneezer: Well said. And they are doing this to depress the midterm turnout.
@Gin & Tonic: Like Hillary, the Bernie-Bro Left has been very effective at making VP Harris toxic, for reasons that are every bit as ridiculous as they were for Hillary. They have been constantly bashing her since the 2020 primary. And of course denying that misgynoir has anything to do with it…
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Gin & Tonic: I hate to admit it, but I think the same way. I saw what happened with HRC
@Gin & Tonic: Many people said the same about Obama pre 2008.
@schrodingers_cat: (Democrat) Haters Gonna Hate (Democrats)
@The Thin Black Duke: Yeah, I consider that to be the “sky writing” that he is running for president.
“DEMS IN DISARRAY” – media take.
They have a point, you never hear about the Republican leadership changing. McConnell clearly intends to leave via the “pry it out of my cold dead hands” route, and on the House side — well, they change, but the media never makes a big deal about it. Even when they’re forced out for serial child molestation.
@UncleEbeneezer: They tried to do it to Biden too by calling him senile, and the whole Tara Reade nonsense. Emanated from the leftist fringes not FOX.
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
And your birthday was Thursday, wasn’t it? 🎂🥂
@WaterGirl: I think primarying Feinstein for the Senate, might make more sense.
Never say never, chapter 111,329.
After much soul searching I have now (albeit still reluctantly) joined the ranks of cell phone owners. The ponderous weight of too many things for all intents and purposes nigh impossible to do or complete without one simply reached a tipping point.
Long held suspicions regarding something sketchy about the whole cell phone experience panned out when I yesterday installed the SIM card sent by the freshly contracted with service provider and discovered my newly assigned phone number’s exchange prefix is (wait for it)
Laughed for nearly a full thirty seconds upon discovering that. :·)
Gin & Tonic
@schrodingers_cat: Of course. But I think she is right that the misogyny has gotten much worse in the last several years.
@Gin & Tonic: It doesn’t make me happy, in fact it makes me pretty much the opposite of that, but sadly, I think your dear wife is right.
Happy birthday, Imm! And to anyone else whose natal day is hereabouts.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Steeplejack: Yes it was. Mr DAW got me a box of Hagen Daz ice cream bars, which was the perfect gift.
@NotMax: So you feel seen?
@Gin & Tonic: Like racism, I wonder if it’s worse or if all of these awful people are crawling out from under rocks because T**** made it okay to be show your true, awful self in public.
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
HGTV is a good panacea. Although perhaps at your place Bonanza reruns and such (I’m thinking MeTV) scratch the “return to an earlier, happier time” itch.
@WaterGirl: Could be a longer term plan though. Newsome is running for another term as California Governor that will end January, 2027. Contesting the 2024 Presidential nomination would be risky in ways a run in 2028 would not be, especially for the hard feelings it would generate.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Steeplejack: Honestly, that would be for the best.
KH won’t win the white vote just like every D Presidential candidate since the Civil Rights legislation passed but she will energize the “others” that are the part of the Democratic coalition
White women voted for Trump over both HRC and Biden, so I am not holding my breath that they will vote for KH. But after Roe reversal who knows. We are looking at a very different political landscape post Roe. The male punditry disagrees but we shall see soon enough this November.
@NotMax: “You are about to enter the Twilight Zone, where the smart phones are…too smart.”
At the beginning of the episode, the protagonist is on the phone bragging to his friend about how his new phone blocks out spam messages. Then a UPS driver shows up wheeling three cases of Spam on a dolly. In the background, a Fed Ex truck is seen pulling up….
@Immanentize: Happy birthday!
Also happy belated to Dorothy Windsor!
@Geminid: I would feel much better about that as a plan. Let it be so!
This is the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP FINALS.
She left them IN THE DUST!
A commentator called it “Beamon”-esque.
“All on its own it insists on switching the ringtone to ‘It’s a Small World.'”
@Immanentize: Mare sure there’s good internet access, preferably fiber. And pay aomeone to move your snow.
@Immanentize: Old white paint is likely to be high lead content paint, sometimes up to 50%. A house that old may not have that much interior lead paint, but the outside is a definite concern.
You don’t have young kids, so it’s not as big an immediate concern, but if young Imp ever has kids the house may not be safe for them. Lead also isn’t great for anybody, even low levels hurt the kidneys. I would have a professional lead assessment done before you buy so you know what you’re dealing with.
I’m an old house lover, but whenever I think of my son’s infancy and toddlerhood, I remember the constant fear he would be exposed once I realized how many unmitigated lead hazards were in our house as we addressed them one by one. It’s not worth the risk unless you have the ability to either fully abate or the ability and willingness to stay on top of maintaining the mitigations.
That’s because jackals are too polite.
On the other hand, trolls are also known for being pantsless.
@Immanentize: Someone suggested watching The Money Pit. Also, go check out Cary Grant in Mr. Blandings Builds His Dream House.
@Geminid: The current Republicans were expected to pick up about 30 seats in the house. It is a little less than that now due to the Supreme Court doing unpopular stuff and Republicans continuing to run their mouths about wanting to do even more unpopular stuff.
Before I looked up the definition, I was assuming this was a slang term for misogyny coming from fedora-wearing internet trolls (the fedora being the hat of choice for both noir and internet trolls).
A great performance. [I woulda said “race,” but that implies serious competition.]
But “Beamonesque”? Maybe, if she still holds that record in 2045.
@UncleEbeneezer: Newsom running for Feinstein’s senate seat in 2024 has always been my guess. That gives him a more national presence and a stepping stone for presidential ambitions in 2028. If he loses that senatorial election (not likely) he will still be governor. If he wins (likely) we will have a female governor and I am here for that. 😊
ETA: see Geminid @ #150
Happy birthdays to the Profs, late or on time. And many more.
Late to the party, but Happy Birthday to Imma and DAW. May this next year be your best ever!
Grant. Loy. Douglas. Beavers. Wolfe.
A dyed in the wool classic romp.
@UncleEbeneezer: ANOTHER GREAT COMMENT
It’s really annoying me about Stephen Colbert. So tired to make fun of Biden’s age. I realize he has to appear somewhat “balanced” and has to make fun of Biden for something. Too bad Biden is so competent and full of integrity that there’s nothing to make fun of him for.
@NotMax: I think I saw that one. Telly Salvalas, right? “My name is Talky Siri, and I’m going to drive you mad.”
@Skepticat: There is no more fundamental right than to be able to control your own body. Period. Pitching the woman’s religious beliefs against other people’s religious beliefs is not a winning argument. There is always someone to claim they are more pure than you. Yet they do not have to live with the consequences of their beliefs.
@Planetjanet: Yeah, I wasn’t impressed by this argument.
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I bought a box of those on a whim this week. First time in forever.
@The Thin Black Duke: if he wants the Presidency in 2024, he will get shot down. Senator is not impossible as DIFI has got to go tho I’m not sure when her term is up. But he may be thinking of the good of the party as a whole which I would be in his shoes. We ought to know we are better off when we stick together and fight as a party. Indeed his ads are making that point in a big way. It seems to me he is stepping up as a party leader and trying to marshal the rest of them to fight together. Usually the President is our leader, but you have to admit Biden and Obama before him have had a lot on their plates. Maybe it’s time to have multiple leaders because it’s a big load. Obama tried to tell us not to wait, to do some it ourselves but we didn’t.
I hope Newsome isn’t trying to undercut Biden because I won’t support that. I will support trying to get all elected democrats to not wait for Biden to solve everything, and attack the Republican nutcases constantly, not just once, so that the normies get it and keep it in their heads for election after election.
@schrodingers_cat: That sounds like fun. Have a great time.
Open thread? I’ll try posting this again – I post almost never as time zone issues mean my posts usually end up being the last on a thread and they die there alone. And this one got eated in the site restoration process I think…
My actor/writer/producer/singer cousin, Tom “Quiche” Kiesche, recorded a podcast interview with Animal Talk recently. He’s a long time volunteer, currently working with the North Central LA animal shelter. He walks dogs. Sounds simple… but what Tom does with and for the doggos (and the cats, and the bunnies…and the other volunteers!) is pretty amazing. Have a listen and see if he doesn’t make you smile!
And for anyone interested in maybe volunteering to make animals’ lives better, Tom has some advice and some suggestions.
Tom Kiesche is here on Insta @TomKiesche if you’d like to follow Tom and the doggos!
Podcast: All About Animals, 13 July
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Perhaps spending time turning people that you slightly disagree with into a bugbear is not great. The people who were trying to take Pelosi’s seat were to her right. The leftists weren’t having it. The challenge to Biden has to do with his age and the energy he brings to the endeavor. Right now, he is working on getting more police funding. If the alternatives turn out to be to about the same age or to Biden’s right, it is not happening.
@Starfish: Right now I think control of the House is a 50-50 proposition. It will turn on close contests in ~15 seats, and may not be decided until one or two days after the election.
Democrats will go into the election up five seats I think. Maybe four now, after the special election in Texas. Races I am particularly interested in are: Marcy Kaptur’s in a trump+3 northeast Ohio district; Elaine Luria’s in a trump +1 (I think) coastal Virginia district; and Republican Don Bacon’s in a Biden+6 Omaha-based district.
@Baud: I dunno about greatest, but he’s rapidly becoming the most person who ever lived.
Newsom will not run for president in 2024 if Joe Biden is on the ballot.
He’s taking shots at DeSantis and Abbott because he’s sitting on a mountain of reelection cash. There is no real threat to his reelection in the state. It allows him to build his reputation in the party nationally, and places him on the list of the new generation of leaders. The investment is all upside for him.
It also targets the governor he’s most often compared to by national media, and serves as a counterpoint to all the puff pieces written about the latest Republican golden child. Desantis’s Florida serves as a vision of America’s future under Republican leadership. Newsom’s California is America’s future under Democrats.
Newsom also very much does not want a Desantis presidency, because the spiteful ass would absolutely target California with punitive legislation. So he’ll bloody him as much as possible hoping his reelection ends up a loss or a squeaker instead of the rout that everyone expects it to be.
My patently narrow perspective of inflation, based on having a family cabin on a lake in southern WI:
It sure looks to me like multiple people around here (mostly weekenders from Chicago) bought brand new, or cherry condition used, wakeboard boats this spring. They’re $120K+ new, $50-100K used. And burn fuel like a mofo.
TONS of boaters and jetskiers out every weekend. The inflation crabbiness is that they have to spend a little more of their big city salary on gas than last year. And burgers for their guests have gone up too. But the power toys must be bought, run all over, and oh, hey lets get the landscaper to put in a new firepit this year. Budgets seem just fine for the upper middles from Ill-annoy.
Anyone who wants to work is working. Wages are up. Yeah if we somehow stay at 8% inflation for too long it’d be bad. But it’s just inconvenient now. (And Kwik Trip has non-ethanol gas for the boat back down at about $5/gallon / $3.99 for the corny crap that’s OK for the car). It ain’t that big a deal! Also, our dinged up but comfy 2006 pontoon – bought used – can run at cocktail cruise speed for about 1.25 gallons per hour. No sweat (well, it’s gonna be 90 and 90% humidity today, so maybe sweat).
Most all of Biden’s “failures” have been failures of image rather than of substance. Nonetheless, that is very concerning, as modern POTUS-craft requires proactive management of image.
@NotMax: 666 is actually the original exchange for Mount Kisco, northern Westchester County. Admittedly I never saw much satanic going on there but I had more than one conversation with some deeply concerned call center people.
@Gin & Tonic: Same. She dropped out early due to fundraising problems. I don’t create our sexist, racist billionaires. I just live in the world they created. Now if Melinda Gates or McKenzie Scott wanted to smash them, they might be able to. But the Gateses we’re already supporting liberal stuff.
@Geminid: Here is what I saw on the topic.
@Starfish: I don’t think the 2018 challenge to Pelosi was ideological in nature. Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, Kathleen Rice and the others seemed to have generational and caucus-politics grievances. The Blue Dog Caucus had nothing to do with this challenge; Pelosi had always treated them well.
Pelosi defused Moulton’s challenge, then invited others, saying “come on in, the water’s warm.” Moulton and company wound up voting for Pelosi as speaker.
A few moderate freshman did not, but Pelosi’s attitude towards them was summed up in her conversation with Mikey Sherrill before the midterm election. Sherrill started to explain why she had promised voters she would not vote for Pelosi as Speaker. Pelosi cut Sherrill off, saying: “Don’t worry about that. Just win, baby!”
@Starfish: And Biden failed in his presidential runs until he had the experience and profile of the vice presidency behind him.
@Starfish: I want to point out that the VP is excellent on women’s health issues, and I would support her if she ran. I expect she is stronger than the President on this but would probably only run with his blessing.
@Immanentize: A house like that is a hole in the ground you pour money into. It can be worth doing, but be prepared for ugly surprises if you have to redo things. I wonder how warm a house that still has lath and plaster will be in the winter.
@RaflW: My even more limited perspective on inflation: I still see people sitting in their cars outside stores with the engine running, presumably while a passenger runs in to buy a few items. So gas is not too expensive.
@Immanentize: Všechno nejlepší k narozeninám, starší!
I do wish the administration would put her out front more often. I think it could go a long way in messaging. It would also help end some of the speculation about a contested primary in 2024. Even before he won in 2020, there were questions about Biden running for a second term, simply due to his age. The administration’s counter to that should be that he has a solid VP to step ready to go at a moment’s notice. Seeing her regularly on center stage would make a big difference.
@schrodingers_cat: This is true, but he didn’t have to overcome misogyny as well as racism. Kamala is an impressive woman and politician but I’m not sure she could overcome both of these things in the America of today. A lot depends on the circumstances.
J R in WV
Given that wife and I bought a decrepit farm house on 90 acres more-or-less back in the ’70s and have had great neighbors, cats, and dogs ever since, not SO crazy. I rehabed central heat and running water and an actual circuit box (instead of an elderly box with 4 fuses in it, added some insulation, bought a generator. We were comfortable and happy in it fot a while.
Then I decided it was decrepitating faster than I could work 40-50 in town and still work on the old Jenny LInd-style farm house — we built a new house farther up in the woods, we bought smaller tracts of land around our main piece with the house, partly to protect our viewshed and partly to enable neighbors to buy their own decrepit farmhouse, tear it down, and build a very nice new farmhouse next door, there’s a ridge and nearly half a mile between us.
It is a long way to town for medical issues and shopping, driving is essential also too. Except for those two issues, i highly recommend being rural — next to a lake would be the cherry on top. We have tiny freshets and waterfalls when it rains, which it does a lot so far, but no lake, not even a swimming hole pond. Keep us posted on your progress towards escape to the rural woods.
ETA: And happy birthday!!! Mine is in mid-winter, near New Years, bundle up to go outdoors for any reason.
Villago Delenda Est
My solution, as always, is to take off and nuke the Village from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
@WaterGirl: Look at it this way – in 2016 Hillary was probably the most qualified person to run for president in a long time, and TFG was one of the least qualified to run ever, yet she still lost to him.
It is wild. The second place finisher said she was a bit confused at the finish because she felt like she ran a pretty good race but finished so far behind. Then she saw the times and though “Oh, that explains it”. In the 33 years from 1986 to 2019 the record was broken 5 times lowering the time by 0.78 sec. Since then McLaughlin has lowered it 4 times by 1.48 sec. This last race lowered her world record set less than a month ago by 0.73 sec. That’s so far out in front that her dust has already settled before the rest of the field gets there.
@Jinchi: I think that she is more visible that VPs have been in a long time. However, I don’t think that much of the press covers it without a neutral to negative framing. I think that has to do with who gets to make the editorial choices and if they think it is better to inspire a diverse coalition or to coddle “cancel culture” numpties.
@Starfish: Dave Wasserman is OK, but his “toss up” ratings are to some extent arbitrary. I think he’s right about Elaine Luria’s race being a tossup but I think Abigail Spanberger’s is a lean D. There’s little current polling on these races at this point, so a lot neccessarily depends on the weighting of past performance in different elections.
And I wonder how much Wasserman tries to impose his own narrative. I thought that was the case in the Oregon 5th district race, when he moved the race into the toss up category as soon as he called the primary for Kurt Schrader’s challenger. I thought Wasserman pulled that judgement out of his ass, not his data, and this makes me wonder about his other ratings.
One intangible factor that I think Democrats have going for them this cycle is that Democrats are relatively motivated and unified while Republicans are not. And while candidate quality can’t neccesarily overcome a district’s demographics, Republicans have nominated some real lightweights in purple districts and that may come back to bite them. A good example is Marcy Kaptur’s opponent. Nobody had ever heard of the guy until he painted his front yard as a huge trump sign. He slipped by two Republican officeholders to win the primary and I think that result was to Kaptur’s advantage.
Similarly, in the Virginia 7th CD (where I’ll vote), Republicans chose who I thought was their weakest candidate to oppose Spanberger. It was a low turnout primary and the winner got 14,000 votes. That total would have won fourth place in Spanberger’s 2018 primary, which she won with 35,000 votes. Spanberger’s challenger was endorsed by Ted Cruz and Ginni Thomas though, plus she’s a Latina and Republicans dream of capturing that voting bloc. It’s not that big a factor right now in the 7th, though
Kamala is CONSTANTLY out front. She’s doing something big almost every day. For the past two weeks she’s been on reproductive rights – major speeches, meeting with governors, etc.
The media chooses to ignore her. So much that even politically aware people like you don’t realize how much she does. This week is as sharp an example as can be – while Harris is stumping the country, and Biden is isolating for COVID, the media reports on whether Biden has taken a Tylenol. Literally the administration could not put her more “in front” than this and they still don’t report on her.
For a minute there, I thought TFG had aced another memory test.
J R in WV
That’s pretty funny. Do you recall that a giant mostly empty office tower in NYC owned by Jared Kushner is hugely labeled with its street number address:
@Fair Economist: Yeah, Harris gets very little national media coverage. And it seems like it’s easier for Chapo Traphouse’s Killer Mike to get on MSNBC than it is for DNC Chairman Jamie Harrison.
Are you handy? Do you like fixing beat houses up? If the answers are yes, that go for it!
I’m not handy so my first house was a major learning adventure. The outcome was that we learned that we are really not handy and not likely to become so. Land is nice for lots of reasons. Lakes are nice also.
Hope this works for you.
First house was beautiful and someone who had the skills has kept it going strong into first 150 years.
We western New Yorkers don’t usually call the area you are considering “upstate.” You’d be Central NY while I am western NY (west of Rochester) Upstate is somewhere else.
@zhena gogolia: Vice Presidenting does seem to be a psychological line that, once crossed, elevates elect-ability in the public mind. The calculation on Harris post-VP should be different than pre-VP.
@Fair Economist: Thank you.
Perhaps best for the moment: the alternative is they pay attention and slam her relentlessly.
@Fair Economist: Gee, maybe Joe “caught” COVID because in 3,2,1 seconds we are going to start seeing the profiles on VP Kamala because Joe is at death’s door. Shrewd move, Joe.
J R in WV
I think Madam VP Harris is out in front nearly every day — but the MSM management won’t put their coverage on air unless a horrible tragedy takes place. They hate her for being a powerful woman, and for being Indian / Jamacian, and that combination makes old white bigots tremble with fear and loathing. Who runs our news media? Old white bigots.
Wife worked for a huge news group for 35 years, was among the first few women hired, was openly hated and mistreated, and so became an elected union officer, thus could work to enforce the union contract work rules against the old fat white bigots managing her news org. So we have seen the misogyny and bigotry first hand.
Anyway, that’s why we don’t see much coverage of Madam VP Harris in the mass media. They generate hours of coverage, in case something terrible happens, or she makes a gaffe, but nothing is published or shown that puts her in a positive light, that would just be impossible for them to bear.
@PST: In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, most of the small Italian joints are owned and operated by ethnic Albanians. But they’re the best Italian places in the Metroplex.
@Starfish: That police funding is a really bad idea. As we head into the post-Roe era, women’s lives will be ruled by their local police department. THIRTY-SEVEN FUCKING BILLION FOR INCREASED SURVEILLANCE!! That will be used to chase down women who’ve crossed state lines to get abortions and access other necessary obstetric medicine. This is so not the time to be increasing surveillance capacity of America’s police forces. The rogue Supreme Court is giving more and more power to the police, taking the idea of qualified immunity to ridiculous extremes. With courts and a criminal justice system that see much of the US population as criminal by default, granting them increased funding is dangerously stupid.
I can see why he thinks this is a good idea, but it is wrong for the times. Politically, he could double the size of every police department in the country and he would still be denounced as a “cop hater” on Fox every night. There is no overcoming the narrative, because Democrats are the party of the Blacks and this proves that they hate cops. The media will only write about how everybody says Democrats are anti-cop, so more funding won’t change the narrative.
Politically, this also gives ammunition to those on the left who feel he has abandoned them. Not true, but he seems not to be willing to even care about the optics here. Defund the police was a major slogan in 2020. He may not have endorsed it, but many people who voted for him held it as deeply important. There are so many attempts happening to shift how our justice system works. It is truly invigorating grassroots voters. Having the man at the top negate all of this to appease right wing media critics just reinforces every wrong idea the left has about Biden.
@Suzanne: Having building codes is nice. I was once on the roof of my aunt’s house, servicing her swamp cooler for the coming season. I jostled the wires to the fan motor and the cracked insulation fell off, leaving bare wires so I stopped and kicked the job upstairs to my engineer/handyman father. Turns out that my aunt’s father the Depression era farmer had built the place and to save money he wired it with whatever wire he had laying around, which was multiple kinds and different gauges so it was a complete firetrap, built without any permits or inspections. The wooden parts of the house were sturdy and solid but the wiring and plumbing were a nightmare.
@UncleEbeneezer: Much, much. Newsome has a reputation as the guy you want to like, but who can flake out on you, e.g. whatshername. As things stand today, going for President and not Senate would seal it. But things could change by then.
@Feathers: A lot of voters rate crime, especially violent crime, as one of their top concerns. I think President Biden is responding to them, not Fox News. One can argue the merits of this approach but I think your attribution of motivation is incorrect. I see that Stacey Abrams is also criticized for proposing increased funding for Georgia law enforcement but I think she’s just posturing but rather is addressing a real concern of her state’s residents.
I don’t consider crime to be a very big problem personally, but I think I am privileged by where I live. When I see people in urban areas and close-in suburbs telling pollsters that crime is a concern of theirs I take them seriously and I want my party’s politicians to take them seriously too. I don’t think they are being bamboozled by propaganda but instead are speaking from their learned experience.
There is certainly room for debate on ways and means to combat the problem but I think it needs to be addressed.
Sister Golden Bear
@The Thin Black Duke: Newsom has explicitly said he’s not running in 2024. I suspect he’s teeing himself for a Senate election/appointment (depending on whether Feinstein finishes out her term), as well as a 2028 presidential run.
@Immanentize: Lovely area, not entirely red,we have fam in Macedon, tot!al lib dems. Prop taxes bearable and winters a bit milder over the last 10 years.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Skepticat: One problem with that is the White fundygelical crowd who are pushing this aren’t so much on the Establishment Clause; they think the US should be a Christian state, formally. Too many people either don’t grasp that or can’t seem to take them seriously.
@Fair Economist: Also, any time Biden makes a speech, Harris comes out first and talks. She is visibly present on all occasions, such as the unveiling of the new Webb space photos. I’ve never seen the like before. But the media never mentions what she talks about, or that she was present.
@Baud: YOU KNOW WHO I MEAN!
@Gin & Tonic: sorry, had to leave for the market. I’d just like to get some relative clarity on how to prioritize these requests based on relative safety of the people’s locations. And there’s one I’m not sure about, but don’t want to jump to any conclusions without input from someone more familiar with Ukraine.
@Immanentize: Late response, but: Happy Birthday!
And go for it! Could be an adventure, so long as you can work remotely.
Gin & Tonic
@satby: I’d be happy to answer here. Since I don’t have a good burner e-mail, I hesitate (under current circumstances) to be more revealing. Don’t take that personally – I know you’ve been here a long time, as have I, but I prefer relative anonymity. I correspond off-blog with Adam, and I’m sure he can pass a message along in either direction if that becomes necessary.
@Gin & Tonic: ok, I’ll do that, because I’m reluctant to go into details about people in a war zone publicly. I’d like to offer help to all of them! Thanks.
Generally though: two of the three who contacted me say they’re from western Ukraine: one a family with very young kids and one a single guy in his 30s (who I thought couldn’t leave the country??).
I really lean towards trying to help the third contact: a young couple from Maripol evacuated to Poland. The family would be next in priority, but one is a doctor. I would think they would be needed too.
Does that sound like a reasonable triage of the situation?
Gin & Tonic
@satby: A single 30-year-old guy from western Ukraine got out and is in the US? Um… All the single 30-year-old guys I know are in the National Guard or the Territorial Defense. Pretty hinky on the face of it.
@Gin & Tonic: No, he’s not out, he’s in western Ukraine. I hate to be judgemental, but I had hesitation about that too. Really good English. The family with the little kids has no English, but again aren’t doctors needed desperately? They could all be internally displaced though, and maybe why they want to leave.
I guess I have some real skepticism about people who want to Hawley it out of (relative) safety when they could be needed vs. the actual refugees. But I’ve never been in a war.