DougJ and I have been talking, and now that we have met our fundraising goal for Four Directions in Nevada, we thought you guys might be interested in knowing more about what we have in mind related to fundraising between now and the November elections.
We’re still going to (mostly) resist the temptation to put up links to candidates we love – like Beto and Fetterman and Stacey Abrams and Mark Kelly and more – and try to maintain a strategic approach to fundraising for this cycle.
We were looking at these key states: AZ, NV, MI, GA, WI, TX, PA
(Betty, if you think there’s something we can do for Florida, we can add it to the list.)
Plus, FL just moved up to key state status. Let’s show Charlie Crist some love, and stop DeSantis in his tracks, shall we?
AZ, NV, MI, GA, WI, TX, PA, and FL!
We’re be raising money to help fund people who are willing and able to pick and up and head to AZ for a week or more. Last week I spoke with a group that has the infrastructure in place to support this – and it costs about $1,000 a week per person. Maybe some retired or temporarily unemployed BJ peeps will be interested in being one of those people? DougJ and I are both super excited about this one!
There will be “Key State” thermometers for all of the executive positions in a particular state: Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General. That will pay dividends in 2022 and can help put some firewalls in place for those states in 2024.
There will be more thermometers: “Key State Governors”, “Key State Secretaries of State”, “Key State Attorneys General”.
If there are 5 or 7 winnable seats in the state legislature in key states, we can put up a thermometer for those. (by state) But we need your help in knowing what those are.
We also want to put together a “Young Pups” thermometer – 5 or 10 young pups who have the potential to really go places – who won their primaries. John Cole especially loves this one because he loves the idea of the “old farts on Balloon Juice supporting the young pups”. We need your help in identifying who these people are!
We will be putting up all those thermometers just as fast as DougJ and I can put them together. To be clear, this will be an ala carte approach – we won’t be putting up thermometers one at a time, with a big push and then moving on to the next one. We’ll put up the thermometers as we make then, and you can decide which you want to give to, if any.
DougJ and I will be putting up posts featuring more information about the various options, and promoting this opportunity here and that opportunity there, but the list of all the fundraising options will be available on Balloon Juice. You might even see Cole put up a fundraising post because he’s pretty jazzed about getting the Young Pups list going.
If there’s a local race that you really believe in, tell us about it in the comments. No guarantees, but your local race could make it into a thermometer. Don’t just name names, tell us about the candidate and about the race.
It’s all hands on deck time – November is just a couple of months away, and voting will start sooner than that!
If you have good contacts for any of this, anywhere, that might be helpful, please let us know.
Have some ideas of your own? Share them in the comments.
Update at noon: I will link this post in the sidebar, so you guys can keep commenting and sharing ideas, even after this post is off the front page.
Old School
You are looking for people to go to Arizona for a week or two? What would they be doing when they got there?
MazeDancer
Holding the House? Would be interested in what races are winnable or where Dem incumbents are at risk.
SuzieC
This is great! I have money to donate and I need to know where it is best directed.
Betty Cracker
Maxwell Frost is a 25-year-old in Orlando who won his primary for the Florida 10th (a blue seat that will almost certainly stay blue). If he wins, he’ll be the first Zoomer in Congress! He was a leader of March for Our Lives and beat Alan Grayson and a state senator in the primary.
Geminid
@MazeDancer: Elaine Luria (VA), Marcy Kaptur (OH), and Sharice Davids (KS) are three of the Democratic Representatives with tough but winnable races this year.
Josie
Most people are aware of Beto O’Rourke’s uphill struggle against Governor Abbott of Texas. They may not know about Rochelle Garza, who is running against Paxton for Attorney General. She is smart, hardworking, and has gone to court and won for a 17 year old immigrant woman who was seeking to have an abortion while in custody. She deserves whatever support we can manage to give her.
WaterGirl
@Josie: Thanks, she will definitely be in the “TX executive races” thermometer and in the “Attorneys General for key states” thermometer !
Josie
@WaterGirl: Thank you. Good to know.
WaterGirl
@Old School: The first day would be training, and then after that you would be working on the campaigns or get out the vote. I will have a post very soon with specific information about what folks would be doing.
Misswhatsis
I’m a candidate for the NH house and we’ve got some races where we have a chance to unseat a Republican. Check https://movethegoalpostsnh.com/ for more info.
My seat is safely Dem so I’m good if I survive my primary. And it’ll still be Dem if I don’t. But I’ll be bummed.
WaterGirl
@Misswhatsis: Wow!
What’s the makeup of the NH state house and senate?
geg6
Open seat here for US House due to Lamb being out and redistricting. Only because Conor Lamb was stupid enough to run against Fetterman. He would have easily won this.
Anyway, it’s supposed to be slightly more Dem now and we have a good guy running on our side. I’ve seen no polling on this race, but I’m hoping Chris Deluzio wins:
https://chrisforpa.com/
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Betty, are there any other candidates in FL that have a shot and could use a boost?
Omnes Omnibus
In WI, Evers (Gov), Barnes (US Sen), Rodriguez (Lt Gov), La Follette (SoS), and Kaul (WI AG) are the big ones to support. A lot of the down ticket races are things I would not put a lot of money into this cycle. One exception would be Brad Pfaff who is try to hold the 3d District Congressional seat that was held for a long time by Ron Kind. Pfaff is a farmer who worked for Kind and has held a number of state and federal appointive offices. He is currently a state senator.
ETA: His campaign website: https://bradpfaff.com/
H.E.Wolf
Kent has recently reported that WA-03 (southwestern WA State, previously represented by a Republican) is now an open US House seat for the general election.
The Democratic candidate is https://marieforcongress.com/
H.E.Wolf
Thank you to WaterGirl and DougJ for the preview of coming attractions!
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Florida state SenatorAnnette Taddeo might be worth looking into. She’s running for a congressional seat held by a Republican, and I don’t think she would if she did not think it was a winnable race.
Walker
@Betty Cracker: Everyone keeps saying this. I am confused. Isn’t Madison Cawthorn a Zoomer?
Betty Cracker
@WaterGirl: I mentioned Frost because of the “young pups” pitch up top — he definitely qualifies! I don’t have much insight on tight races in Florida at the district level. The districts I personally know are super-gerrymandered so probably not a good fit. Maybe Floridians from other districts can suggest candidates who will be in tight races.
Motivated Seller
@WaterGirl, Have you considered providing a donation link to just one pot of money? I have confidence in the hive mind to distribute donations to the best places, but I don’t always feel like I know enough to say send some money to NV, but a little more to PA.
In other words, if I have a budget of $2,000 of giving for the whole year, and I’d like to make sure everyone gets a reasonable piece, it gets harder and harder to figure it out as more and more options are added to the Ala Carte menu.
Not sure if its worth the trouble of setting up, but I would probably use it.
Betty Cracker
@Walker: Nope — late Millennial. Gen Z starts in 1997.
Tom Levenson
No races in the Commonwealth (God bless it!) of Massachusetts that need support. Not sure what’s happening in NH, with 2 House races and a senate contest pitting the very good Hassan against yet a Republican to be selected on 9/13 (last competitive primary of the cycle). The current front runner for the GOP nomination is a raving Trumpist election-denying loony retired general. If he win, that will boost Hassan’s chances in a very closely fought state, but it’s still an important seat to defend.
I’m spreading news of this fundraising direction around my circle.
gkoutnik
I’m mostly a lurker, but a regular one, for years, and I really appreciate the energy/activity here going toward financial and organizing support in the interest of saving democracy, to which I have a very strong attachment. Thank you again, WaterGirl and everyone else. I’ve come to trust the thought and knowledge behind BJ political support initiatives and will be participating financially as much as possible.
I’m in upstate NY, and although I live in a county which is represented in the NYS Assembly and Senate by Repugs, the Dems have a supermajority in both houses, so no need to focus here. I strongly second the motion to focus on holding the House. I don’t think I could survive some bogus impeachment hearings based on multiple counts of Biden doing what’s best for America. Too old for that shit. Our Congressional representation (NY 19) got really complicated recently, and we’ve got a new District with no incumbent and a good Dem candidate but a Repug majority. Not a high priority, other than the fact that every House seat is a high priority.
Thanks again –
Madeleine
Thanks to MisterDancer for highlighting DeSantis in Florida yesterday (not forgetting Betty Cracker’s keeping us informed about all FL craziness).
Geminid
@Geminid: Re Florida state Senator Annette Taddeo: she is running in the FL 27th CD against one term Rep. Elvira Maria Salazar. The 27th is in south Florida, and was flipped by Donna Shalala in 2018; then Salazar beat Shalala in 2020.
Taddeo argues that her Central American roots make her better able to connect with the district’s Spanish speaking voters. A few weeks ago Florida Politics reported on a poll showing Salazar leading Taddeo 39-34%, with 27% undecided. The result was within the poll’s margin of error.
Taddeo seemed to impress people during her race for Governor earlier this year. She trailed the better known Crist and Fried, though, and dropped out to run for Congress. I think this race bears watching.
MisterForkbeard
I’m looking forward to donating to all these folks and groups. Particularly Crist (preferred Fried, but doesn’t matter) and Demings. But they’re all good candidates and I’m proud of Balloon Juice for our collective support.
FelonyGovt
A bunch of Congressional races here in Southern California could be significant in holding the House. Christy Smith Is running in CA 27 (Katie Hill’s seat) against the odious Mike Garcia who voted not to accept the election results. She lost by 333 votes last time. This is currently the only R held seat in LA County.
Several races in Orange County as well- Dem wins in 2018 that were erased in 2020 and are possible reversions to D.
Miss Bianca
Hi, I know it’s not a hot-button state like some of the others mentioned above, but CO House races could use a little love – speaking specifically of CD-3, which is where my county ended up after being redistricted out of CD-7, Lauren Boebert Land. So, yay! Because Ed Perlmutter is a D! Except, boo, he’s retiring and Republicans are panting after that seat. So, on the Republican side, we have a guy named Erik Aadland, who’s an Aryan poster boi dedicated to no abortion for anyone ever, moar gunz, everywhere, the usual BS. On the Dem side, we have Brittany Pettersen, state Senator, young, seems smart and well-informed, endorsed by Ed P, and in a tight race against Aadland.
All my meager funds are going towards CO races this year, and this one is pretty important, so if anyone has any extra $, this would be a good place to kick in, please and thank you.
BruceFromOhio
Unfortunate that OH is not on the shortlist, and I defer to the sharper minds on where our focus will be. Nan Whaley for OH governor and Tim Ryan for US Senate keep polling within striking distance, it’s going to be close and I do not trust the polls. It pains me no end my fellow buckeye denizens think giving idiot Vance a Senate seat is good for anyone other than techbro Nosferatu. As noted above, Marcy Kaptur for US House is in a ‘new’ district as a result of the fascists vertically fornicating the maps, and will have to actively campaign.
WaterGirl
@BruceFromOhio: We thought about including Ohio. Make your case and we’ll add it. :-)
edit: What do you know about the Secretary of State and Attorney General races in OH? Are they up this year? Are there incumbents? Are there Dems running? Do they have a shot?
SuzieC
As of Aug. 19, 538 had Ryan leading in Ohio by 1 point. It’s winnable if we go full blast.
Can Tim Ryan Really Win Ohio’s Senate Race? | FiveThirtyEight
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: So this race is for the US House? Not the CO statehouse?
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: Yep, US house. Now, on the state house side, the interesting thing from my perspective (since I’m in District 60), we have Kathy Green as the Dem running for the District 60 seat, which has been vacated by Ron Hanks, Jan 6 insurrectionist and failed US Senate candidate. According to Ballotpedia, Stephanie Luck, who’s an incumbent in another District, is running for that seat. It’s a safe bet that any Repub is a frothing maniac at this point (my Repub state senator being a notable exception that proves the rule), so any $ going to Kathryn Green would be a worthy investment as well!
FastEdD
Out here in blue CA there are 5 House seats that could be flipped from red to blue in our state alone:
CA 3 Kermit Jones
CA 13 Adam Gray
CA 27 Christy Smith
CA 40 Asif Mahmood
CA 41 Will Rollins
Flipping five US House seats would mean … everything.
JeffH
Abrams and Warnock are getting most of the attention in Georgia (and they’re great) but the Secretary of State race is key too. Raffensperger wasn’t willing to change the results for TFG, but he’s perfectly willing to go along with voter suppression, so dumping him would be huge. Bee Nguyen is a really smart candidate on the D side who would make a lot of difference in 2024 just in terms of making things easier to register and vote.
I’m still annoyed that I got gerrymandered out of GA-7 (which will be Lucy McBath’s new district) and I’m now in GA-9 by about 500 feet. That one looks like a lost cause because the Dem candidate is, well, not strong, and the district is primarily North Georgia (next door to Empty Greene’s district.)
FelonyGovt
@FastEdD: Also Jay Chen in CA 45, running against the execrable Michelle Steel.
WaterGirl
@FelonyGovt: Does that one seem flippable? Do the other 5 also seem flippable to you, too?
MazeDancer
Maybe we could make our own Hold the House Fund?
Even if there are 50 candidates, we can help them.
WaterGirl
@MazeDancer: I like the hold the house BJ fund idea, but it might make more sense to give more help to a smaller number of House races, which might help get more candidates over the top.
That said, tell us which house seats you think are close/winnable and we’ll see how many we end up with.
FelonyGovt
@WaterGirl: I’m not familiar with 3 or 13, or 41. 41 is Riverside County, an inland county that I think is still heavily Republican.
The others are definitely in play. As I said, Christy Smith (27) lost by 333 votes last time, and LA County women are furious now. 40 and 45 are in Orange County, which is not nearly as Republican as it used to be.
Richard Levenson
I’m lazy and easily convinced by the last thing I read. What I am looking for is a place I/we can put in our whole (non-trivial) contribution once and let others figure out where these fungible dollars will have the best effect.
Suggestions?
thanks.
MazeDancer
@WaterGirl: It’s the House. There are going to be a lot of candidates.
All the ones mentioned here.
Even if we just take the Cook Political Report “toss-ups”, that’s still 28. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
MazeDancer
Oops… sorry, added wrong, 33 toss-ups.
WaterGirl
@Motivated Seller: I believe that we would have to create a PAC in order to do that. DougJ and I have discussed that in the past, but it hasn’t seemed like the right thing for us here at BJ.
WaterGirl
@Richard Levenson: We don’t have anything like that set up at this point. But I were asked to choose for you right now, I would recommend that you give to the not-yet-created Balloon Juice thermometer that will fund bodies to go to AZ and work for at least a week.
The call is for folks for a week or more – there is one full day of training, so a week is long enough to spend the day training and still get a big contribution from the person for the remaining 6 days. :-)
We should have that thermometer up in a day or so. I have another idea for you, as well, so I will send email to you at the address you listed for Balloon Juice. If that’s not a working email, can you send me email? WaterGirl at balloon-juice.com
edit: I say that because AZ is key for several reasons, and helping to fund working bodies on the ground helps with everything in AZ, where the secretary of state and governor’s races are key. Electing the Democratic governor and Democratic Secretary of State will be good in its own rite, protects the right to vote for folks in AZ, and builds a firewall for 2024.
Geminid
@FelonyGovt: Riverside County used to be heavily Republican, but no more. The current 41st CD, in western Riverside County, is represented by Democrat David Takano, and in 2020 voted for Joe Biden almost 2-1.
However, California shifted its Congressional districts around in the last reapportionment. Will Rollins is running in the 41st, but the district is now east of Riverside County, in the Palm Springs area. The incumbent is a veteran conservative Republican.
JPL
Earlier today I posted a comment, but want to repeat it because both you and SD deserve huge praise for the fund raising for WCK
OT I looked through some of yesterday’s blogs, and congratulations to Subaru Diane for the generous match for the world Central Kitchen.
btw Amazon sells some of his products with the proceeds going to the WCK. Keep that in mind when you are shopping for a gift.
BruceFromOhio
@WaterGirl: Little to nothing. Yes. Yes. Yes. Not in this lifetime.
JPL
Because I backed out of local politics, I’m not familiar with the best candidate to support with additional funds. In GA it might make sense to just raise funds for the party. As much as I enjoyed Flowers commercials against Greene, it hasn’t moved the needle. Deliverance country can’t be saved.
Richard Levenson
@WaterGirl: Thanks for the response. I take it to mean that you are suggesting to focus our efforts on AZ (critical state) rather than giving to a centralized entity, like ActBlue, that can dole out the dollars as they see fit nationally. My email in my previous posting is accurate. Cheers, R
WaterGirl
@BruceFromOhio: We just can’t research everything ourselves. :-)
This is not the year we want to support long-shots, though. We need to save all our ammunition for winnable races.
If you can find me Ohio races that have a shot, we will consider adding them.
WaterGirl
@Richard Levenson: With ActBlue, you give to particular thermometers for particular groups or candidates.
It’s a personal choice, of course, but this is not the year that I want to give to groups that may not have the same priorities we do.
BruceFromOhio
@WaterGirl:
I defer to the sharper minds on where our focus will be. My disappointment stems from OH becoming a fascist shithole, in contrast to the excellent work you all have undertaken.
SuzieC
@WaterGirl: I sent you the 538 article about Tim Ryan. Is that good enough to qualify?
WaterGirl
@SuzieC: A couple more questions. :-)
The race is polling pretty close, yes? Do we know if he has TONS of money already, and do we think our money has a chance to make a difference?
SuzieC
@WaterGirl:
Do new fundraising numbers in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race between J.D. Vance and Tim Ryan provide a ray of hope for Democrats? – cleveland.com
Ryan outraised Vance $9 million to $1 million in April through June period. I realize R megadonors will ride to Vance’s rescue but he is racking up some pretty big numbers with a large base of small donors. And as I pointed out above 538’s current composite average of polls has Ryan with a one-point lead.
WaterGirl
@SuzieC: So we think Ryan can win, but maybe Ryan doesn’t need the funds? Is that a fair assessment?
If that’s the case, I wonder if there is a boots on the ground group that could help get out the vote that could use some $$?
SuzieC
@WaterGirl: I think Ryan will need the funds. As I said, the megadonors are stomping in. (Images of Jurassic Park.) If you want to donate to a BOTG group, could not do better than my Indivisible Central Ohio team. Large team of activists in Ohio’s biggest and bluest city.
SuzieC
IndivisibleCentralOhio
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Marcy Kaptur certanly has a shot in her Northeast Ohio district. Kaptur is one of the best Democratic Reps we have.
SuzieC
@Geminid: Northwest Ohio, Toledo area. Her district, which she has represented for 39 years, has been savagely gerrymandered to eliminate her. Her opponent is a Trump insurrectionist who was present at the Jan. 6 coup attempt. She is very worthy of your contributions.
Geminid
@SuzieC: I may be mistaken, but I believe that after gerrymandering Kaptur’s district is considered R+3, so she has a fighting chance.
And her opponent is a clown. He is a newcomer to politics, having made his name by painting his front yard into a big trump sign.
Geminid
@SuzieC: Ah, thank you for the correction. Don’t know why I thought Kaptur’s district was east of Cleveland.
Kaptur is an excellent Representative, a committed liberal and a strong advocate for Lake Erie and its related industries. Wikipedia tells me that Kaptur started volunteering for the Democratic party in 1959, when she was 13 years old.
The Fat Kate Middleton
I haven’t read all the comments here, so I may be stepping on someone else – Iowa’s First Congressional District has an interesting contest between two women who are both former TV news broadcasters. Both have have served in the Iowa legislature, and they couldn’t be more unlike one another. Dem candidate Liz Mathis is a sharp, savvy woman who pushes all the right buttons for me – especially her suppport for our teachers and our schools. Repuke Ashley Hinson has now served in the federal House of Representatives (and the Iowa legislature) – and she has been a disaster. I’m battling disability right now that leaves me unable to do anything more than sit, but I will do anything I can to keep little Ashley out of office.
WaterGirl
I’m still checking back for input and ideas. I will check again in the morning.
WaterGirl
@SuzieC: I am open to this. Do we know what Indivisible groups do with the funds that they raise?
SuzieC
@WaterGirl: I know what our group does.
Indivisible Central Ohio
See calendar and projects. We register voters. We go door to door. We phonebank. We write thousands of letters and postcards. I am getting close to 180 for this summer. Maybe not a lot but with my arthritic hands I can only do a few per day.
ghost cat
@WaterGirl:
Tim Ryan raised $9.1 million in the second quarter of 2022 (4 times that of Vance). But Ryan may still need more help, and he deserves it if needed. Senatorial races in OH (and PA, GA, and ?) could start to get messy thanks to a $1.6 billion dark money contribution from Barre Seid’s Black Marble Trust to a nonprofit (named ?) headed by Leonard Leo, who deserves the credit for the current composition of SCOTUS.
In ProPublica:
“In the largest known political advocacy donation in U.S. history, industrialist Barre Seid funded a new group run by Federalist Society co-chair Leonard Leo, who guided Trump’s Supreme Court picks and helped end federal abortion rights.”
Sheldon Whitehouse, an expert on dark money, was just on Laurence O’Donnell. In his opinion, a chunk of the Seid/Leo money is likely to be used to prop up the races of Repub senate candidates whose campaigns are currently imploding: JD Vance in OH, Oz in PA, and Walker in GA. But it won’t go directly to the candidates. It’ll be “anonymized” through attack ads against the Dem candidates & credited to groups that nobody has heard of before. The $1.6 billion is supposedly to be used on the mid-terms and 2024 races.
germy shoemangler
WaterGirl
@germy shoemangler: Thanks, germy!
Another Scott
I know you’re swamped, WG, but any update on these fundraising links? 64 days to go…
Thanks for all you do.
Cheers,
Scott.