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You are here: Home / Political Fundraising / Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 / Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (IL-17, NE-02, CO-08 Added)

Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (IL-17, NE-02, CO-08 Added)

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There have been a lot of great nominations for who to add to our Winnable House Races in Purple Districts thermometer.  I did some research on the nominees, and I have added 3 more: Eric Sorenson (IL-07), Tony Vargas (NE-02) and Yadira Caraveo (CO-08)

There were some great candidates thatI haven’t added because they seem to be in good shape financially and I’m thinking that our funding wouldn’t make a difference.  So let’s stick with this 10; I think we’re gonna call it quits on adding any new people for awhile.

Lest we spread ourselves too thin… if there’s someone who really should be added, we will need to take someone off.

Since it’s a Saturday afternoon, I’m including a photo of Miss Willow.  She thinks Henry has been in the spotlight long enough!

Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (IL-17, NE-02, CO-08 Added)

Unless you customize the amounts, donations to this thermometer will now be split 10 ways.

Marcy Kaptur  (OH-09)
Sharice Davids  (KS-03)
Gabe Vasquez  (NM-02)
Elaine Luria  (VA-02)
Susan Wild (PA-07)
Josh Riley  (NY-19)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez  (WA-03)
Eric Sorenson  (IL-17)
Tony Vargas  (NE-02)
Yadira Caraveo  (CO-08)

 Winnable House Races Purple Districts

If you want to learn more about the folks on the list, click on the Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 tag up top and check out some of the other posts in this series.

Reminder: all of the targeted fundraising thermometers for this fall are in the sidebar, and also at the link below.  Besides this one, there are thermometers for the AZ Executives (Firewall) and one for Charlie Crist so we can give DeSantis the boot, and make him a one-term governor and a zero-term president!

All Targeted Fundraising Thermometers

Totally open thread!

Reader Interactions

33Comments

  3. 3.

    Yutsano

    KITTEH!!!!

    I wish WA District 4 could fall under this category, but as the insidious Dan Newhouse survived the jungle primary I might be stuck with him for another two years. The (slightly) good news is Doug White the Democratic candidate also won. But that’s a miracle territory.

  4. 4.

    Jackie

    @Yutsano: What little I can find in the news, MAGAts didn’t vote for Newhouse in the Primary, so I’m hoping they don’t vote – OR to spite Newhouse, vote for Doug!🤞🏻🤞🏻

  6. 6.

    Cmorenc

    Is Co-3 (Laurn bobert’s district) potentially winnable, or too much of a long shot?  IIRC bobert marginally benefitted from a few blue-leaning locales being shifted to other districts in the latest redistricting.  She was able to win last time roughly 51-46 b/c her D opponent did not draw enough turnout in blue- leaning Pueblo, the most populous urban area in the district.

  7. 7.

    Yutsano

    @Jackie: ​ Unfortunately most of them will come home. But if enough stay home, especially up north or they write in idiots like Culp then things might happen. Who knows? Newhouse isn’t talking to anyone as far as I know.

  9. 9.

    Geminid

    It’s probably wise to not spread donations too thin. But since these are open threads we can talk about other purple district Democrats too. Jaime McLeod Skinner is a very good candidate who knocked out Kurt “past his sell-by date” Schrader in a purple Oregon district. The primary ballots took an extra long time to count because of a ballot screw up, and when Cook’s Dave Wasserman finally saw enough and called the race he added that he changed his rating from “Lean D” to “toss up.” I thought this was not a data driven decision but rather Wasserman playing pundit, a temptation some pollsters cannot resist.

    The NE 2nd CD Tony Vargas is running in is one of the districts where both Joe Biden and the Republican incumbent won in 2020. The Democrat lost for the second time. She was fairly left, and if someone like her had beaten Schrader Wasserman’s district rating change might be justified. But while certainly a liberal, Ms. McLeod-Skinner is well within the Democratic mainstream, I think, as is Mr. Vargas in the NE 2nd.

  13. 13.

    WaterGirl

    @Geminid: I did research that one myself today, and I would love for her to win, but it looked like she had a ton of money coming in from a ton of different organizations.

    So I figured out money wouldn’t make a difference there.

    I am all for learning about various districts and other candidates!

    Colbert was ahead of his time with “better know a district” or whatever it was.

  15. 15.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Interesting, long-ish piece (for the oped section) from Michelle Goldberg on WA-3, MAGAloon Joe Kent vs “working class Dem” Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

    one interesting nugget:

    After Gluesenkamp Perez, a man who doesn’t often speak at Democratic rallies took the mic. David Nierenberg, a hedge fund manager who calls Mitt Romney his “best friend,” was probably Jaime Herrera Beutler’s biggest fund-raiser in the district. Now he’s backing Gluesenkamp Perez.

  18. 18.

    H.E.Wolf

    What a fine cat! And a fine name too.

    Thank you to WaterGirl and all the commenters making suggestions for potentially winnable races! It has lifted my spirits and galvanized me into (further) action.

    PS to O. Felix Culpa, if you’re around: haven’t yet seen any postcarding projects for NM, but I’m keeping my antennae up. :)

  20. 20.

    Kent

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I just finished reading it.  A pretty good summary of the race here in the WA-3rd.  Marie definitely needs help.  I think Michelle Goldberg did a decent job of capturing the district and both candidates:

    Link

    I think this quote rings true:

    Though she looks nothing like Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate candidate, John Fetterman, something about her reminds me of him. Both are part of working-class communities, and use cultural fluency as much as political rhetoric to try to connect with voters who might feel alienated by the national Democratic Party.

  23. 23.

    Geminid

    @Cmorenc: Boebert carried the CO 3rd by the same margin trump did. Redistricting is thought to have made the district redder. However, there are a lot of Independents in Colorado, and some disaffected Republicans might defect. There was good reason in 2020 to expect Boebert would be a clown, but now she’s had a couple years to show her stuff and seeing is believing.

     

    I suspect, though that the Democrat in the race will not lack for donations. Notorious politicians like Boebert tend to attract financial support for their opponents, an example of the “negative partisanship” dynamic at work.

  24. 24.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Kent: you may have seen this, but check out her campaign homepage.

    @WaterGirl:

    Kent said that the Jan. 6 insurrection “reeks of an intelligence operation” and he wants all the “political prisoners” arrested for invading the Capitol released. His campaign, The Associated Press’s Brian Slodysko reported, paid a member of the Proud Boys, one of the groups that led the Jan. 6 attack, $11,375 for “consulting” services. He’s appeared at several rallies with Joey Gibson, the founder of a Vancouver-based Christian Nationalist group called Patriot Prayer that has often worked in concert with the Proud Boys.

     

    The shop Gluesenkamp Perez runs with her husband, Dean’s Car Care, employs eight people, and Gluesenkamp Perez speaks passionately about the struggles of both small-business owners and working parents. She often talks about putting infant noise-protecting headphones on her baby registry; because she couldn’t find a day care spot, her son spent a lot of time with her at the auto shop.
    “If you think you can spend 15K a year on day care, per kid, and save for retirement, and save up for a mortgage, you’re living in a really different economy than me and most of the people that I know,” she said at one rally.

  25. 25.

    Another Scott

    Ellie and I met a “Willow” on our evening walk a few days ago. A Yorkie, I think. Teeny, tiny thing, wearing a pink harness and dragging her leash down the street. She wanted to meet Ellie pretty bad! Stood up on her back legs to look Ellie in the eye and sniff her ears, etc.

    Her young human eventually came out of her yard to retrieve her. :-)

    Miss Willow is a fine looking cat.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  26. 26.

    Kent

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes, I’ve been following her since before the primary.  I think she is exactly the right candidate for this district.  Her twitter feed also trolls Kent just like Fetterman does.   Have to see if she can get over the top.  Kent has a lot of money and national attention from the MAGA media

    And here’s as tweet from today just for the Balloon Juice  crowd!

    https://twitter.com/MGPforCongress/status/157374995006373068

    And here is a profile from local media:  https://chronline.com/stories/the-stakes-are-so-high-marie-gluesenkamp-perez-seeks-to-represent-working-class,300039

  27. 27.

    Memory Pallas

    @eclare: ​ Wouldn’t want to just come out and say “registered to vote in that district.” Can’t be too careful these days.​

  30. 30.

    Geminid

    @H.E.Wolf: The New Mexico 2nd CD is one of the Republican-held districts thought to be in play this year. In 2020 Yvette Harrell won a rematch with Xochitl Torres-Small by 20,000 votes, I think. When they redistricted, Democrats in the Round House (as we wannabe New Mexico insiders refer to the state capitol building) added Democratic districts near Albuquerque and subtracted Republican districts on the eastern border. So Democrat Gabe Vasquez has a good chance to unseat Harrell.

    Vasquez is in his early 30s, I believe. After graduating from Notre Dame in 2011, Vasquez worked for Senator Martin Heinrich, and he is currently a Las Cruces City Council member.

  31. 31.

    Geminid

    @Yutsano: Newhouse is one of only two out of ten House Impeachers on the ballot this fall. Four retired and four lost their primaries. Valadeo of California is the other Impeacher on the ballot, and like Newhouse he advanced in a “jungle” primary.

  33. 33.

    H.E.Wolf

    @Geminid: ​
     Many thanks for the latest info on NM-02! (I’m not local to NM, but was and am a big Torres-Small fan.) I’m keeping an ear open in behalf of O.Felix Culpa’s, who was looking for NM postcard opportunities if I heard of any.

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