Biden got his booster today and is pressing companies to help boost rates. He has little choice: the US faces another potential winter Covid wave with dwindling supplies, basically no new cash, possible test shortages and some treatments growing obsolete.https://t.co/TpJBA4btfv
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) October 25, 2022
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Cases are both too high and low by pandemic standards; cases are falling but accelerating; we're well above some peers and well below others
— ProofOfBurden (@ProofofBurden) October 27, 2022
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Daily infections are projected to rise slowly to about 18.7 million by February from the current 16.7 million average daily cases, the University of Washington said in an analysis. https://t.co/algD3WhGCp
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) October 26, 2022
This is an excerpt from David Quannem’s new book, Breathless. If you don’t know Quannem’s writing already, take my word: He’s always worth reading:
To believe the coronavirus was engineered to target humans is to ignore its broad capacity to infect other species—humans aren't the only ones at risk https://t.co/teaoLKqjxk pic.twitter.com/6fLGZK15Uu
— delthia ricks ?? (@DelthiaRicks) October 16, 2022
If the virus is circulating in non-pet rats, we’re pretty well going to be living with it indefinitely…
Rats can get infected w/#SARSCoV2 & develop severe #COVID19 . In this French report, 2 pet rats caught the virus, one from their owner, the other rat-2-rat:
"supports the hypothesis that wild rodents may become secondary reservoirs of" the virus.https://t.co/sNJ1UHGpW6 pic.twitter.com/yxFQo9rAbT— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) October 18, 2022
China Covid: Millions back in lockdown as Beijing doubles down on zero-Covid https://t.co/GVCU4N6UGu
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) October 28, 2022
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India reports 2,208 fresh #Covid19 cases, 3,619 recoveries and 12 deaths in the last 24 hours.
Read all #coronavirus news and updates: https://t.co/wRVUWKHLZ4 pic.twitter.com/YGmvaWFt7W
— BQ Prime (@bqprime) October 28, 2022
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Looking like impact of Omicron BQ.1.1 may not be as bad as initially feared: large volumes of infection combined with vaccination campaign cause effective R value to decrease fast… https://t.co/69fQgxHnjj
— Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers) October 27, 2022
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The trial will investigate a leading theory of the cause of long COVID, which holds that fragments of the virus persist in the tissues of some individuals, causing prolonged symptoms. https://t.co/tCSbJzj0we
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) October 28, 2022
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A prospective assessment of #LongCovid in over 2,000 healthcare workers with controls, by variant. The incidence for Omicron was about 1/2 to 1/3rd of prior variants, but given the denominator of people who have had Omicron infections, still a huge issue https://t.co/LNSwLIG3Pc pic.twitter.com/wjh2ReqDoi
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) October 26, 2022
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U.S. doctors are warning that a surge in cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is coinciding with an increase in COVID transmission and an earlier-than-normal flu season, raising the specter of a "tripledemic" of respiratory illness this winter. https://t.co/yUKcAL3SMk
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) October 26, 2022
I don’t think you’re going to see a significant uptake in boosters until you see an uptake in cases, and we don’t know when that might be because everyone’s got a prior Omicron infection and prior infection keeps holding up better than we think it will
— ??Boo??-per Lund (@cooperlund) October 25, 2022
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Reader Interactions
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NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
82 new cases on 10/25/22.
107 new cases on 10/26/22.
142 new cases on 10/27/22.
We seem to have hit a plateau at what appears to be a fairly high level for the population of the county.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 2,762 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,890,437 cases. It also reported four deaths, for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,462 deaths – 0.75% of the cumulative reported total, 0.75% of resolved cases.
36,105 Covid-19 tests were conducted yeesterday, with a positivity rate of 8.1%.
There were 28,720 active cases yesterday, 1,487 more than the day before. 1,170 were in hospital. 47 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 30 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 1,271 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,825,255 patients recovered – 98.7% of the cumulative reported total.
2,754 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Eight new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 1,491 doses of vaccine on 27th October: 142 first doses, 222 second doses, 522 first booster doses, and 605 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,394,606 doses administered: 28,108,133 first doses, 27,517,888 second doses, 16,249,787 first booster doses, and 518,798 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.8% their first booster dose, and 1.6% their second booster dose.
lowtechcyclist
Nitpick: it’s David Quammen, but yes, he’s absolutely worth reading. The Song of the Dodo is one of the best nonfiction books I’ve ever read. And his 2012 book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, gave us plenty of advance warning.
Matt McIrvin
There’s been a sudden substantial drop in the Boston-area and North Shore wastewater COVID counts over the past few days, which I find surprising. Up to this point, the modest peak we’d been in had persisted through October with, at best, gentle decline.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Constipation?
lowtechcyclist
True, and obviously much more widely applicable than just to the pandemic.
I need “Republicans: the REAL Pandemic” on a t-shirt.
YY_Sima Qian
On 10/27 Mainland China reported 214 new domestic confirmed (16 previously asymptomatic), 1,123 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 27 new domestic confirmed (19 at Guangzhou, 3 at Foshan, 2 at Shenzhen, & 1 each at Jiangmen, Maoming & Yangjiang) & 88 new domestic asymptomatic (46 at Guangzhou, 39 at Foshan, 10 at Meizhou, & 1 each at Jiangmen, Jieyang & Zhongshan) cases. 2 of the new domestic positive cases were found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (1 each at Guangzhou & Maoming), 15 via community screening (14 at Guangzhou & 1 at Jieyang) & 1 at a fever clinic (at Guangzhou), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown. 36 domestic confirmed & 30 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 390 active domestic confirmed & 761 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 52 sites at Guangzhou, 12 at Jiangmen, 8 at Shenzhen, 5 at Zhongshan, 3 each at Jieyang & Meizhou, 2 each at Huizhou & Yangjiang, & 1 at Foshan are currently at High Risk. 69 sites at Guangzhou, 12 at Shenzhen, 7 at Jieyang, 6 at Jiangmen, 5 at Zhongshan, 4 at Meizhou, 2 at Foshan, & 1 each at Huizhou & Yangjiang are currently at Medium Risk.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 7 new domestic asymptomatic (3 each at Nanning & Yulin, & 1 at Fangchenggang) cases, none from the community. 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 10 active domestic confirmed & 129 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Hunan Province reported 24 new domestic confirmed (19 at Shaoyang, 4 at Huaihua, & 1 at Changsha) & 51 new domestic asymptomatic (32 at Shaoyang & 19 at Huaihua) cases. 1 was found via community screening (at Shaoyang), 1 came from out of province & tested positive during follow up screening (at Changsha), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown. 1 domestic confirmed & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 134 active domestic confirmed & 629 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 94 sites at Shaoyang & 13 at Huaihua are currently at High Risk. 42 sites at Huaihua, 36 at Shaoyang, & 1 at Yueyang are currently at Medium Risk.
Hubei Province reported 57 new domestic asymptomatic (28 at Wuhan, 17 at Yichang, 9 at Tianmen, 2 at Jingzhou, & 1 at Xiangyang) cases. 2 were found via screening of persons deemed ar risk of exposure (both at Jingzhou) & 8 via community screening (6 at Wuhan & 2 at Yichang), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown. 46 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 490 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 37 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, 20 at Ordos, 8 at Hohhot, 4 at Baotou, 3 at Chifeng, & 2 at Xilingol League) & 110 new domestic asymptomatic (64 at Hohhot, 13 at Chifeng, 9 each at Bayan Nur & Ulanqab, 8 at Xilingol League, & 5 at Ordos) cases. 26 domestic confirmed & 83 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 484 active domestic confirmed & 2,259 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region. 268 sites at Hohhot, 30 at Baotou, 21 at Chifeng, 7 at Ordos, 4 each at Wuhai & Alxa League, 3 each at Hulun Buir & Ulanqab, & 2 at Bayan Nur are currently at High Risk. 203 sites at Hohhot, 49 at Baotou, 22 at Chifeng, 15 each at Bayan Nur & Ordos, 8 at Wuhai, 4 at Ulanqab, 2 at Hulun Buir, & 1 at Alxa League are currently at Medium Risk.
Gansu Province reported 14 new domestic asymptomatic (13 at Lanzhou & 1 at Baiyin) cases, none from the community. 33 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 132 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 5 sites at Lanzhou & 1 at Wuwei are currently at High Risk. 16 at Lanzhou & 2 at Wuwei are currently at Medium Risk.
Shanxi Province reported 26 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic, 21 at Datong, 3 at Shuozhou, & 1 each at Lüliang & Yuncheng) & 81 new domestic asymptomatic (64 at Datong, 7 at Taiyuan, 4 each at Lüliang & Shuozhou, & 2 at Jinzhong) cases. 30 domestic confirmed & 30 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 482 active domestic confirmed & 483 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 80 sites at Datong, 34 at Shuozhou, 11 at Yuncheng, 7 at Taiyuan, & 1 at Linfen are currently at High Risk. 24 sites at Yuncheng, 18 at Datong, 4 at Shuozhou, 3 each at Linfen, Lüliang & Taiyuan, & 1 at Jinzhong are currently at Medium Risk.
Shaanxi Province reported 13 domestic confirmed (5 previously asymptomatic, 9 at Xi’an, 3 at Hanzhong, & 1 at Weinan) & 35 new domestic asymptomatic (24 at Xi’an, 6 at Hanzhong, 3 at Xianyang, & 2 at Baoji) cases. 1 of the new domestic positive cases was found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (at Xi’an), & 3 via community screening (all at Xi’an), 1 at a fever clinic (at Weinan), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown. 6 domestic confirmed & 27 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 217 active domestic confirmed & 560 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 41 sites at Xi’an, 46 at Hanzhong, 10 at Xianyang, & 4 each at Weinan & Yulin are currently at High Risk. 87 sites at Xi’an, 16 at Hanzhong, 14 at Xianyang, & 4 each at Weinan & Yulin are currently at Medium Risk.
Ningxia “Autonomous” Region reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Yinchuan & 1 at Zhongwei) cases. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 277 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 12 sites at Wuzhong, 7 at Yinchuan, 2 at Ningdong, & 1 each at Shizuishan & Zhongwei are currently at High Risk. 12 sites each at Wuzhong & Yinchuan, 4 at Ningdong, & 3 at Zhongwei are currently at Medium Risk.
Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 12 new domestic confirmed & 110 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 15 domestic confirmed & 276 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The region is not publishing the counts of active domestic positive cases. 841 sites at Ürümqi, 73 at Bayingol Prefecture, 61 at Tacheng, 46 at Yili Prefecture, & 42 at Turfan are currently at High Risk. 125 sites at Ürümqi, 50 at Tacheng, 37 at Turfan, 33 at Yili Prefecture, & 8 at Bayingol Prefecture are currently at Medium Risk.
Shandong Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both at Zaozhuang) & 91 new domestic asymptomatic (21 at Zaozhuang, 17 at Weihai, 10 each at Jining & Linyi, 8 at Dezhou, 6 at Dongying & Rizhao, 5 at Liaocheng, 4 at Zibo, 2 at Qingdao, & 1 each at Heze & Jinan) cases. 4 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (2 each at Dezhou & 1 each at Jining & Qingdao), 10 via community screening (5 at Dongying, 3 at Zibo, & 2 at Linyi), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown. 4 domestic confirmed & 15 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 18 active domestic confirmed & 432 domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 70 sites at Zaozhuang, 14 at Rizhao, 12 at Linyi, 7 at Jining, 4 each at Dezhou, Liaocheng & Zibo, 3 each at Dongying & Qingdao, & 1 each at Jinan & Weihai are currently at High Risk. 19 sites each at Linyi, 15 each at Jining & Rizhao, 12 at Zaozhuang, 5 each at Qingdao & Zibo, 4 each at Tai’an & Weihai, 3 each at Dongying & Liaocheng, 2 at Jinan, & 1 at Dezhou are currently at High Risk.
Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (at Qinhuangdao) & 20 new domestic asymptomatic (4 at Baoding, 3 each at Zhangjiakou & Tangshan, 2 each at Cangzhou, Shijiazhuang & Xingtai, & 1 each at Chengde, Handan, Langfang & Qinhuangdao) cases. 15 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 domestic confirmed & 126 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 20 sites at Zhangjiakou, 16 at Baoding, 3 at Chengde, 2 each at Handan, Tangshan & Xiong’an, & 1 each at Cangzhou, Qinhuangdao, Shijiazhuang & Xingtai at are currently at High Risk. 20 at Zhangjiakou, 18 at Baoding, 3 each at Chengde, Handan, Qinhuangdao & Xiong’an, 2 at Cangzhou, & 1 each Shijiazhuang & Tangshan at are currently at Medium Risk.
Henan Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed (all at Zhengzhou) & 16 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Zhengzhou) cases. 4 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (all at Zhengzhou), the rest are person under quarantine. 7 domestic confirmed & 10 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 119 active domestic confirmed & 346 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 11 sites at Zhengzhou & 6 at Pingdingshan are currently at High Risk. 36 sites at Zhengzhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Liaoning Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (2 at Chaoyang & 1 at Anshan) cases, all via community screening. 1 domestic confirmed & 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 35 active domestic confirmed & 49 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 2 sites at Chaoyang are currently at High Risk. 3 sites at Jinzhou & 1 at Chaoyang are currently at Medium Risk.
At Jilin Province 6 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The province is not publishing the counts of active domestic positive cases. 2 sites at Changchun are currently at High Risk.
Heilongjiang Province reported 5 new domestic confirmed (4 at Suihua & 1 at Harbin) & 30 new domestic asymptomatic (25 at Suihua & 5 at Heihe) cases. 30 were found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (29 at Suihua & 1 at Harbin). 3 domestic confirmed & 19 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed & 115 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 17 sites at Suihua, 15 Heihe, & 2 at Mudanjiang are currently at High Risk. 23 sites at Heihe, 21 at Suihua, & 3 at Mudanjiang at are currently at Medium Risk.
Beijing Municipality reported 6 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 were found via community screening. 15 domestic confirmed cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 1 site is currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 6 new domestic asymptomatic cases, none form the community. 1 domestic confirmed & 15 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 12 sites are currently at High Risk, & 13 at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 11 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 was found via the community screening, the rest are persons under quarantine. 1 domestic confirmed & 28 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed case in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 17 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Anhui Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (both at Hefei) & 7 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Hefei) cases, 3 found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure, the rest are person under quarantine. 15 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 21 active domestic confirmed & 108 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 1 site at Hefei is currently at High Risk, & 35 at Medium Risk.
Jiangsu Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, all at Nanjing) & 25 new domestic asymptomatic (15 at Nanjing, 5 at Suzhou, & 1 each at Changzhou, Nantong, Wuxi, Yangzhou & Zhenjiang) cases, 1 came from out of province & found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (at Nantong), 9 via community screening (all at Nanjing), the rest are persons under quarantine. 6 domestic confirmed & 10 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 71 active domestic confirmed & 198 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 6 sites at Suqian, 2 at Nanjing, & 1 each at Lianyungang & Nantong are currently at High Risk. 18 sites at Nantong, 15 at Nanjing, 11 at Suqian, 6 at Xuzhou, 3 at Suzhou, & 1 at Taizhou are currently at Medium Risk.
Zhejiang Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic (2 each at Hangzhou & Jiaxing) cases, none from the community. 4 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The province is not publishing the counts of active domestic positive cases.
Fujian Province reported 13 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic, 10 at Nanping, & 1 each at Putian, Quanzhou & Xiamen) & 163 new domestic asymptomatic (142 at Fuzhou, 14 at Nanping, & 7 at Pingtan) cases. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 67 active domestic confirmed & 386 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. 33 sites at Fuzhou & 1 at Pingtan are currently at Medium Risk.
Jiangxi Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Fuzhou) case, a person under centralized quarantine. There currently are 16 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Sichuan Province reported 15 new domestic confirmed (3 previously asymptomatic, 7 at Mianyang & 1 each at Chengdu, Meishan & Yibin, & 5 persons transferred from out of province to unspecified location) & 28 new domestic asymptomatic (14 at Guangyuan, 7 at Nanchong, & 1 at Yibin, & 6 persons transferred from out of province to unspecified location) cases. 8 of the new domestic positive cases were found via community screening (7 at Mianyang & 1 at Yibin), 1 came from out of province & was found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (at Chengdu), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown, or came from out of province & tested positive upon arrival. 11 domestic confirmed & 22 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The province is not publishing the counts of active domestic positive cases. 14 sites at Guangyuan, 13 at Nanchong, 2 at Chengdu, & 1 at Yibin are currently at High Risk. 12 sites at Nanchong, 8 at Mianyang, 7 at Guangyuan, 4 at Luzhou, & 1 at Chengdu are currently at Medium Risk.
Chongqing Municipality reported 6 new domestic confirmed (all at Yongchuan District) & 23 new domestic asymptomatic (19 at Yongchuan District & 1 each at Ba’nan, Liangping, Nan’an & Yubei Districts) cases, 2 were found via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure (1 each at Liangping & Yubei Districts). 17 domestic confirmed & 15 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 70 active domestic confirmed & 168 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 6 sites are currently at High Risk, & 10 at Medium Risk.
Guizhou Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed & 44 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Qinghai Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, 5 at Xining & 1 at Haidong) & 103 new domestic asymptomatic (65 at Xining, 21 at Haidong, & 17 at Haibei Prefecture) cases. 5 were found via community screening (all at Xining), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown, or came from elsewhere & tested positive upon arrival. There currently are 15 active domestic confirmed & 392 active asymptomatic cases in the province. 140 sites at Xining, 28 at Haidong, & 9 at Haibei Prefecture are currently at High Risk. 99 sites at Xining, 27 at Haidong, & 2 at Haibei Prefecture are currently at Medium Risk.
Tibet “Autonomous” Region reported 1 new domestic confirmed (at Lhasa) & 5 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Lhasa) cases, none from the community. 4 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The region is no longer publishing the count of active domestic positive cases.
Yunnan Province reported 2 new domestic confirmed (1 each at Dehong Prefecture & Kunming) & 28 new domestic asymptomatic (27 at Dehong Prefecture & 1 at Pu’er) cases. 8 were found via community screening (all at Dehong Prefecture), the rest are persons under quarantine or lockdown. 12 domestic confirmed & 35 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The province is not publishing the counts of active domestic positive cases. 51 sites at Dehong Prefecture & 3 at Honghe Prefecture are currently at High Risk. 52 sites at Dehong Prefecture & 3 at Honghe Prefecture are currently at Medium Risk.
Imported Cases
On 10/27, Mainland China reported 48 new imported confirmed cases (1 previously asymptomatic), 121 imported asymptomatic cases, & 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 270 confirmed cases recovered (59 imported), 882 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (117 imported) & 17 were reclassified as confirmed cases (1 imported), & 62,471 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,658 active confirmed cases in the country (551 imported), 17 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 15,902 active asymptomatic cases (1,085 imported), 0 suspect cases. 489,417 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine. There have been 5,226 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
As of 10/27, 3,439.408M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 109K doses in the past 24 hrs.
As of 10/27, Hong Kong reported 5,656 new positive cases, 390 imported & 5,266 domestic, & 10 new deaths. There have been 10,365 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 10/27, Taiwan added 34,602 new positive cases, 46 imported & 34,556 domestic (including 100 moderate & 47 serious). There were 57 new deaths (from 40+ to 90+ y.o., 56 w/ underlying conditions, 21 fully vaccinated & boosted). There have been 12,603 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
Suzanne
@lowtechcyclist:
If I could get a vaccine to keep Republicans away, I would.
I guess I’ll have to settle for voting.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: Massachusetts has managed to give something like three quarters of a million new vaccine doses over the past several weeks, most of which are the bivalent booster in people who were already fully vaccinated/boosted, and it’s possible that is having an effect on top of prior infections. It doesn’t seem to me like that would be enough to suppress a wave of the newer COVID variants, but maybe it’s a combination of things. I was expecting things to just ramp up into the next winter wave but the story seems more complicated.
OzarkHillbilly
FTR, it’s David Quammen and yes, he is always worth reading. I have been a fan of his for… at least 2 (eta thinking about it, more like 3) decades, probably more.
ETA: @lowtechcyclist: beat me to it, right down to recommending the same book I highlighted. :-(
YY_Sima Qian
Due to the daily trickle of community cases in the city, parts of Wuhan are entering the so called “quiet period” of movement restrictions, not quite strict lock down but akin to the “stay at home” orders of California in 2020. Qiaokou & Hankou Districts exited “quiet period” on Tuesday, but Hanyang, Jianghan, Jiang’an & Wuchang Districts are still under movement control. The district where we live still does not yet have movement controls (had 1st community case yesterday), but that could come any time should community cases continue to show up. Schools have been online only since the China National Day break in early Oct.
I have stocked up months ago on rice, flour, dry noddles, cooking oil, frozen meat/fish, canned meat & veggies, so a week or two of “quiet time” should not be a problem. Deliveries of groceries & take outs continue during “quiet periods”, though the 1st 24 – 48 hrs can suffer from disruptions as logistics & last km delivery are adjusted & rearranged.
Life is much tougher where local governments’s governing capacity is lower, where they tend to resort to hard lockdowns (however called) to contain an outbreak. However, they also tend to be unable to thoroughly enforce a hard lockdown across their entire jurisdictions, so they can be stuck in a purgatory for a long time, population locked down to keep a lid on the outbreak, but could not actually achieve elimination quickly.
New Deal democrat
At 37,900, confirmed cases have been steady for the past 2 weeks. Hospitalizations have increased to 25,300 from their low of 22,900 10 days ago. Deaths have risen to 404 from their low of 337 one week ago.
Biobot shows cases flat in the South and West, and rising in the Midwest and Northeast, consistent with about 275,000 actual new cases daily.
The CDC has not yet updated its variant tracker, but someone has leaked to Dr. Eric Feigl-Deng again. Apparently the nowcast will show that variants BQ1 and 1.1 have risen from 17% to 27% of all cases, and 42% in NY and NJ. While he is alarmed, note the above: that total cases have not increased from one week ago. So all that is happening at this point is that some of BA.5’s progeny are replacing the parent variant in the %age of cases. The slight increase in hospitalizations and deaths might mean that the new alphabet soup of subvariants is a little more virulent.
Yutsano
@YY_Sima Qian: I remember a while back you mentioned how there should be more collaboration between the PRC and the West on coronavirus issues. That inhalable vaccine is an excellent example of how the US should stop being adversarial on, well, everything, and explore some coöperation* with the mainland Chinese government on how to manage the pandemic better. There are issues where there can be vehement disagreement. Controlling the damn plague shouldn’t be one of them.
* I will live and die with my diaresis dammit. English spelling is so boring.
Ohio Mom
Off topic but I had my second shingles shot on Wednesday and spent Wednesday night through just about midnight Thursday with a fever, chills, headache, aches and the room spinning every time I ventured out of bed.
Today I feel fine. Still, a potent reminder that I hate being sick.
Jackie
@Ohio Mom: I got my 2nd shingles shot about 5 weeks ago and surprisingly, no side effects – unlike with #1. Got the senior flu vaccination a week ago, and the omicron shot in between. Hopefully I’m caught up for the next 12 months! Knock on wood!
Matt McIrvin
@Ohio Mom: Yeah, that second shingles shot knocked me pretty hard too. Fortunately it passes pretty quickly.
YY_Sima Qian
@Yutsano: Not in the current geopolitical environment, unfortunately. The well was poisoned from the beginning. Working level communications between the two governments have completely broken down.
MelissaM
I do a “old person’s” yoga at the university in town (it’s a study! I get paid!) and for some reason vaccines came up in the before conversation. To hear these at-risk folks talk about not getting it is frustrating. One man, his daughter works at the U and has to test weekly. His wife had a bad reaction to the first and has refused all others. Another woman said “they want you to get them every three months! I just don’t trust it!” Husband and I kept our mouths shut, but really wanted to go off.
Also my 92yo mother, in rehab to regain strength after a blood clot and serious kidney infection, has covid for the second time. She’s apparently feeling OK and can even have gowned and masked visitors. She’s fully vaxxed, so I expect this infection won’t be an issue.
eachother
This happened.
Got my flu shot a couple of days ago. Same person has given me vaccines during this pandemic. Conversationally, I mentioned how amazing vaccines are. I mentioned polio and in reply the response was, “What’s polio?”
The question was without jest.
Another Scott
[yell at clouds] I’m sure that there are excellent people working at IHME, but their early graphs predicting the course of the pandemic were wrong and counter-productive. Error bars do NOT get smaller farther into the future. I’d continue to take their predictions with a grain of salt. I’m looking to see the course of infection numbers after Halloween and Thanksgiving before maybe thinking that the US pandemic is over.
I continue to be astounded by arguments that “prior infection is good or even better than vaccination and that’s why things are going so well” when we’ve all seen and heard reports like “Joe died after catching COVID that 4th time”. Sure, anecdotes are not data, but we still don’t know with certainty who will die and who will never even have symptoms. There’s still too much fake certainty in the tweets. [/yell at clouds]
Thanks for the updates and comments, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@YY_Sima Qian: Time to binge watch the Longest Day in Chang’an
they should make a streaming version without episode breaks so it’s one 40-hour movie
TallTom
Interesting tidbit. I went to my doctor for my annual physical today, and asked for both a Flu shot & Covid booster. She recommended that these two vaccinations be separated by a two week interval
RaflW
I had (embarrassingly) never had a flu shot before this autumn. Got it 10 days before a 17 day trip, and it took 3 days for my arm to get sore, but then there was a small lump (which, thankfully, I’d seen was a possible side effect) and it hurt – a bit – for another three days. Huh.
Now it’s looking like we’re going on an NGO trip to Kenya in January. I may be a human pin cushion in a few weeks!
YY_Sima Qian
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: That is an awesome show! Though the plot twists at the end really felt like something out of 24, took me out of suspension of disbelief.
Before that, the production team really built an emersive world of Tang Dynasty Chang’an, both the world topping prosperity & cosmopolitanism, & the internal decay that presaged the fall of the “Golden Tang” to the An Rokshan Rebellion just a few years later.
The characters are well done, too. Really brought to life the personalities that any educated Chinese is familiar with from the history books & poems.