Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

“Squeaker” McCarthy

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

I really should read my own blog.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

After roe, women are no longer free.

This blog will pay for itself.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Why did Dr. Oz lose? well, according to the exit polls, it’s because Fetterman won.

Bark louder, little dog.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

In my day, never was longer.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

The revolution will be supervised.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Georgia Runoff Open Thread

Georgia Runoff Open Thread

by | 261 Comments

This post is in: ,

Looks like we could use one.

Live feed here

Open thread.

I have a little bit of a kindness post I’m going to put up a bit later. I figured we could all use a bit of a smile.

 

Reader Interactions

261Comments

  9. 9.

    Spanky

    Herschel Walker is about to go through some things.

    What, a wood chipper?

    After his loss I expect he’ll just hustle back to one of his Texas houses and we won’t have to hear from him again.

  11. 11.

    brendancalling

    I hope Herschel loses and loses very very badly.
    At the same time, I feel bad for him. The GOP used the brain-damaged MF and will drop him like a hot potato if he loses. HW shouldn’t even be running—he’s unwell, not of sound mind, damaged. It’s disgusting the way the racist GOP used him. mind, I don’t feel 100% sorry—dude went along with it after all—but I have some pity.

  12. 12.

    Anoniminous

    MSNBC: Warnock HQ reports that Warnock is overperforming his early vote and mailed ballot numbers from November so they are feeling cautiously optimistic. Current statewide totals: Warnock 62.9% (676, 428) and Walker 36.8% 392,100. Same day turnout in Dekalb turnout was reportedly really high, may cancel out the same day vote for Republicans.

    So early good news

  16. 16.

    WaterGirl

    @brendancalling: I believe Rs will drop him like a hot potato even if he wins.  Unless he just does whatever they tell him and votes they way they tell him, I think they will suddenly “discover” that he has mental health issues,  they will force him to resign and the R governor will appoint someone else in his place.

  17. 17.

    WaterGirl

    @Eolirin: I don’t think enough votes from all the right places are in yet – I don’t think we can extrapolate from the votes that have already been counted and get a good prediction of the winner.

    It’s sad and shocking and shameful that it’s even this close.

  22. 22.

    dmsilev

    For whatever it’s worth, the NYT Needle ™ currently says “Warnock with an 80% chance of victory”.

  25. 25.

    DCrefugee

    My only thought is that by tomorrow morning the Crazification Factor will have a new, higher value than before.

  26. 26.

    PaulB

    Two comments from Dave Wasserman on Twitter:

    “A pattern emerging: Walker (R) is hitting/getting close to the numbers he needs in the reddest, most rural counties. But he’s falling a good bit short of the numbers he needs in small/midsized cities.”

    “At this point, turnout in metro Atlanta would need to be unusually rough for Warnock (D) to lose. It’ll be a close margin, but he’s in the driver’s seat now.”

    He’s not calling it yet, though. With more votes in, the margin has shrunk considerably, now at 1.6%, with 57% of the vote in.

  27. 27.

    Spanky

    One possible wrinkle might be if Walker makes what is billed as a concession speech and it takes analysts a couple of days to figure out what the hell he said.

  28. 28.

    japa21

    There apparently is a delay in Fulton county numbers, both in early vote and same day. Those will be overwhelmingly for Warnock and should place him way on top. However, watch for a lot of cries of fraud because of the delay.

  29. 29.

    Another Scott

    A pattern emerging: Walker (R) is hitting/getting close to the numbers he needs in the reddest, most rural counties. But he's falling a good bit short of the numbers he needs in small/midsized cities. #GASEN

    — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 7, 2022

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  32. 32.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @Quinerly:

    It still infuriates me that it is even close.

    You’re not alone.  If anyone deserves to lose in a landslide it’s Walker.

     

    @brendancalling:

    I hope Herschel loses and loses very very badly.
    At the same time, I feel bad for him.

    I’d love to see Walker get humiliated tonight.

    After hearing multiple accounts of his horrible treatment of women, I have absolutely zero sympathy for him.

    I can’t wait until this race is called for Warnock, so that Walker can get swept into the trash receptacle of history and never be seen or heard from ever again.

  34. 34.

    Splitting Image

    @DCrefugee:

    My only thought is that by tomorrow morning the Crazification Factor will have a new, higher value than before.

    This is a bad test for the Crazification Factor, since Walker has local appeal. Under the right conditions, a batshit insane moron in cognitive decline can hypothetically win 49 states.

  35. 35.

    UncleEbeneezer

    Looking great so far but we’ll see.

    Short night of work then going for Japanese BBQ with my wife to celebrate the 12 year anniversary of our first date 🥰

  36. 36.

    brendancalling

    @Wyatt Salamanca: yeah, i agree with that too. He’s a rotten piece of shit. The brain damage, as we say, is an explanation not an excuse. HW is an abuser. It’s still sad and pathetic though.

  38. 38.

    MazeDancer

    On of the metro Atlanta counties -Rockland – is 95% in. Kornacki reports  Warnock did over 2 points better than Nov.

    Very good trend.

    Here are two lists of good numbers to follow. One from Josh Marshall  One from me.

  39. 39.

    Another Scott

    @Splitting Image: Yup.

    KFMonkey:

    Tyrone: 27%.

    John: … you said that immmediately, and with some authority.

    Tyrone: Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That’s crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.

    John: Objectively crazy or crazy vis-a-vis my own inertial reference frame for rational behaviour? I mean, are you creating the Theory of Special Crazification or General Crazification?

    Tyrone: Hadn’t thought about it. Let’s split the difference. Half just have worldviews which lead them to disagree with what you consider rationality even though they arrive at their positions through rational means, and the other half are the core of the Crazification — either genuinely crazy; or so woefully misinformed about how the world works, the bases for their decision making is so flawed they may as well be crazy.

    John: You realize this leads to there being over 30 million crazy people in the US?

    Tyrone: Does that seem wrong?

    John: … a bit low, actually.

    HW has strong ties to Georgia. Keys didn’t have any ties at all to Illinois.

    Still, it’s a source of shame that he’s a candidate for Senate and is getting so many votes.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  41. 41.

    Mousebumples

    Between the general election and the runoff, I wrote 75 #PostcardsToVoters that went to Georgia this year. I’m hoping that effort helped keep Senator Warnock in DC!

    Postcarders – I’m hoping we’ll be writing more postcards for Wisconsin’s April 2023 election – so probably sometime in March. And maybe more for #PostcardsToVoters before then, but Wisconsin is my (personal) focus and is 100% on my radar.

  42. 42.

    Mai Naem mobile

    Listening to the radio and they said Walker just pulled ahead.  I understand  Atlanta hasn’t come in yet but jeezus I am disappointed that Walker is ahead at any point.

  45. 45.

    Alison Rose

    @UncleEbeneezer: According to some random site, the 12th anniversary gifts are either silk or linen, or home decor. So after dinner you could swing by the mall and either buy matching silk robes, new bed sheets, or like…a potted plant.

  50. 50.

    different-church-lady

    I know the scoreboard is a lie. But… can’t… stop… scoreboard… watching………..

  51. 51.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    Election Betting Odds 8:38PM EST

    Warnock 96.8% of winning

    Walker 3.2% of winning

  53. 53.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    he hasn’t seen enough yet, but…

    Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 42m

    At this point, turnout in metro Atlanta would need to be unusually rough for Warnock (D) to lose. It’ll be a close margin, but he’s in the driver’s seat now. #GASEN

  55. 55.

    TriassicSands

    @Another Scott:

    The Libertarian candidate received some 80,000 votes in November, which is more than enough to offset Warnock’s November lead if all the same people vote and most Libertarians switch to their mindless cousins, the GOP.

    That is why ranked choice voting would hurt Democratic presidential candidates in some states. In 2020, if there had been ranked choice voting in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, TFG would probably be president today. There just aren’t enough actual Democrats voting in some states.

  56. 56.

    Elizabelle

    @brendancalling:  I  feel the same way.

    It is true that Herschel Walker has no business being a Senate candidate nominee; also true that he is a very badly damaged human being who has been used badly, most lately by the Republican party.

  58. 58.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

     Taniel
    @Taniel
    ·
    7m
    Heavily blue DeKalb County reports a large chunk of votes for the first time, and Warnock retakes the lead — +0.6%.

    Most blue counties in the Atlanta region are significantly underreporting compared to the rest of the state (Fulton, Henry, Clayton, Cobb, Gwinnett, DeKalb).

  60. 60.

    rikyrah

    If the number for Warnock’s win comes close to matching the Early Vote from that Saturday, when Blue counties did and Red counties didn’t..😒😒😒

  62. 62.

    Amir Khalid

    It just doesn’t make sense to me that the unfit-for-office candidate has a slight lead over his opponent.

  63. 63.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    This should tell you everything:

     
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    14m
    CNN: special coverage of the GA runoff
    MSNBC: special coverage of the GA runoff
    Fox News: the backlash over asking men about botox

    It reminds me of when someone important died in the Soviet Union, state radio would start playing classical music. Here republican state TV is tuning out realty.

  65. 65.

    TriassicSands

    @Amir Khalid:

    That’s because there are so many unfit-to-vote people living in this country generally and in Georgia specifically. But we don’t have a way to deny votes to racists, fascists, or complete brainwashed idiots. We want people to be able to vote, but that means a lot of very ignorant and nasty people are going to cast ballots.

  66. 66.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @Amir Khalid:

    It just doesn’t make sense to me that the unfit-for-office candidate has a slight lead over his opponent.

    Call it the revenge of the flat-earthers.

  70. 70.

    MazeDancer

    Dave Wasserman tweeted:

    Dougherty Co. (Albany): Warnock +40.8 in November, Warnock +42.7 today. A great result for Warnock (D) there. #GASEN

    Dougherty County is the county list used at PostCard Patriots. Take a bow everyone.

  72. 72.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @Eolirin:

    Dave Wasserman is one of the best number crunchers in the business, but I find it deeply demoralizing that an absolute laughingstock like Walker is making this race highly competitive right now.

  73. 73.

    Another Scott

    Clarke Co. (Athens): Warnock +44.2 in November, Warnock +47.5 tonight. Warnock (D) easily above his target numbers there. #GASEN

    — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 7, 2022

    Good job, raven!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  74. 74.

    Steeplejack

    @Amir Khalid:

    The three-step pattern is:

    1. Dems lead from early votes and mail votes.
    2. Reps catch up/overtake as Election Day votes are counted (many small shithole counties, which can tally/report quickly).
    3. Dems bounce back as gigantic counties (e.g., Fulton, DeKalb) finish reporting.

    I think we’re still in step 2.

  76. 76.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @MazeDancer:

    Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 1m,

    Paulding Co. (NW Atlanta suburbs): Walker +24.4 in November, Walker +23.7 tonight. A good result for Warnock (D) there. #GASEN

    those tiny shifts, and their significance, are wild to me

    and not so tiny

    Dave Wasserman  @Redistrict 2m

    Clarke Co. (Athens): Warnock +44.2 in November, Warnock +47.5 tonight. Warnock (D) easily above his target numbers there. #GASEN

  80. 80.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

     Christopher Ingraham
    @_cingraham
    ·
    34m

    It’s wild comparing stuff like this from people who actually understand the election data with what’s happening on cable. On CNN right now they are pushing hard on “OMG Walker pulls ahead of Warnock!!!” without virtually no mention of what votes remain.

    News outlets long stop being informative, switching instead to entertainment.

  81. 81.

    Ken

    I must admit to mixed feelings. I’d been Eeyore-ing, and a friend bet me lunch that Warnock would win. So I get a free lunch if Walker wins. The only problem will be finding someplace that serves bitter ashes, which is all I’d be tasting anyway….

  84. 84.

    different-church-lady

    G. Elliott Morris
    @gelliottmorris
    ·
    39s
    Surely the result in Athens (3 points more D in vote margin, turnout down 8%) will convince those who are uncertain about Warnock’s lead

    Oh. Yeah. Surely. [BEATS HEAD AGAINST BACK OF COUCH…]

  87. 87.

    TheTruffle

    I’m skipping the scoreboard watching. Just gonna wait for the votes to be counted. Why do they need these silly runoffs anyway?

    I really am hopeful over GA at this point. Sure, I’m bummed Stacey Abrams didn’t win, but I think the Dems’ chances are better there than they have been in a long time.

  90. 90.

    different-church-lady

    My favorite part of Wasserman‘s feed is everyone begging him to “Say the line, Dave!”

  93. 93.

    Another Scott

    I’m reminded that my mom told me that Georgia has more counties than any other state east of the Mississippi. (And is second only to Texas.)

    It's times like tonight when I feel like I deserve a lot of credit for not making up county names with fake results. To the residents of Itchicoochie county, I say, "You're welcome."

    — L O L G O P (@LOLGOP) December 7, 2022

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  94. 94.

    different-church-lady

    GOP operative throwing in the towel:

    Dianne Putnam, chair of the Whitfield County Republican Party, said voters are not turning out as heavily as she would like for the runoff in her county, which Walker won by 46 points in November.

    “The people just didn’t vote straight down like they should have and that’s usually what Republicans do,” she said of Walker trailing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp by 200,000 votes in November. “I don’t understand that, I really don’t. It’s a mystery to me.”

  98. 98.

    MazeDancer

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    those tiny shifts, and their significance, are wild to me

    It is wild, but it is the result of hard work by the Dems.

    Stacey Abrams, the boots on the ground funded by BJ, Four Directions, all the Dem volunteers working for year after year. It all pays off.

  102. 102.

    pajaro

    @TheTruffle:

    So this may be me misremembering, but I think that Southern states put runoffs in to make sure that the “right” kind of people ended up ahead in the end, no matter how the white vote was split in the general.

  103. 103.

    different-church-lady

    Joe Szymanski
    @JosephSzymanski
    Take a gander at which congresswoman’s district is seeing a slightly higher than average drop in turnout compared to the rest of the state of Georgia.

    You get one guess.

  104. 104.

    Skepticat

    I’m packing to move, and I have way more than I need of everything but money. However, I just saw Walker leading Warnock 1,312,167 (50.1%) to 1,309,528 (49.9%), and I now there’s one glass I won’t have to pack. (Yes, I drained the vodka first.) And yes, after years of marketing for political campaigns, I know perfectly well it ain’t over til it’s over, but this should never have been within shrieking distance. I’m doing the shrieking at this point, but I may have to find, fill, and drain another glass, as that’s stressing the cats.

  108. 108.

    Dan B

    @Amir Khalid: There are many rural counties in the US where most residents have never been outside the county and believe terrors lurk in big cities and overseas.  The smart young ones get out so it never improves for the long term locals.

    I grew up 8n such a county.

  109. 109.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    Stuart Rothenberg
    @StuPolitics

    Come on, David. Seen enough yet? The trend is clear. Make the call.

    Just saying, Stu is a pro.

  112. 112.

    Kay

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    I’ve seen enough: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Herschel Walker (R) in the #GASEN runoff, giving Democrats a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

  113. 113.

    H.E.Wolf

    I wrote to Democrats in these GA locations for the runoff:

    Atlanta, Auburn, Augusta, Austell, Cartersville, Columbus, Dallas, Decatur, Fayetteville, Folkston, Grayson, Hampton, Jesup, Jonesboro, Kathleen, Kennesaw, Lilburn, Lithonia, Marietta, McDonough, Murrayville, Perry, Pooler, Powder Springs, Rome, Savannah, Silver Creek, Stockbridge, Valdosta, Warner Robins.

    One of the things I love most about GOTV postcard writing is the chance to learn about different parts of the country. Wikipedia is an amazing resource.

  114. 114.

    Lyrebird

    @kalakal:

    @brendancalling:

    I have some pity too.  Some other commenter – I don’t think it was Frankensteinbeck, but someone else with a clever nym – put it really well a day or two ago.  I can’t find it, but I agree that a person can 100% support Warnock, democracy, and the rule of law and still feel a bit sick about the way mostly-White Rs are using this Black man with obvious neurological problems.  He may have been a jackass even before all that head trauma in football, but that does not excuse what they are doing.

    It’s like the Sarah Palin problem only many times worse.

  115. 115.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    Election Betting Odds 9:24 PM EST

    Warnock 97.4% of winning

    Walker 2.6% of winning

  116. 116.

    Layer8Problem

    I know what the politically tuned-in people are saying, that things are in our favor; I know logically we’re set up well, but watching it as a horse race flipping back and forth on MSNBC is driving me batshit.  This was the wrong damn show to watch after finishing 1899.

  123. 123.

    dmsilev

    NYT: “We’ve worked through some challenging issues with the needle that we think we have fixed, and we hope to turn it back on shortly. The version we have working internally suggests that Warnock has a commanding advantage, with most of the vote left in Democratic precincts.“

  127. 127.

    Dadadadadadada

    538 has an adjustable table that I’ve been playing with. It’s such good news that I’m worried I’m reading it wrong.

    The table allows you to sort GA’s 159 counties various ways: alphabetically, by how much of the vote they’ve reported, and, most importantly, by how much today’s result differs from November’s.

    When you sort by the magnitude of the change, you see enormous reason for optimism. You have to go really deep into the list (around 40 places) to find one that changed in favor of Walker. That’s Dawson County, population 26,798, and it’s R+3.6. Above it are literally dozens of counties that changed more in favor of Warnock, including several of the state’s most populous, and these range from D+3.6 up to D+22.

    All Warnock needed was to hold; he was ahead in November, so if everyone votes the same, he’ll win tonight. But he’s not just holding; he’s surging ahead, in a tremendously impressive show of force.

  128. 128.

    H.E.Wolf

    @MazeDancer: ​”…it is the result of hard work by the Dems.

    Stacey Abrams, the boots on the ground funded by BJ, Four Directions, all the Dem volunteers working for year after year. It all pays off.”

     Amen. And let’s keep right on doing it.

  130. 130.

    dww44

    @different-church-lady: Whitfield County is in far northwest corner of the state.  Very very white and Republican.   Maybe the lack of turnout on their part is attributable to their voters’  reluctance to vote for the R  candidate but they just can’t bring themselves to vote for the “D” one either.  Sort of like Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan

  133. 133.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    🚨 SIX MORE YEARS! 🚨

    Rapheal Warnock (D-Balloon Juice)

    Dump/Walker sacked for loss by Obama/Warnock/Jackals

  136. 136.

    different-church-lady

    How the ‘eff do you get to 80% counted statewide and Walker has a “lead”, and it’s in the bag for Warnock?

    Rhetorical question: I know how it works, I just have a hard time getting my brain to understand my eyes are lying to me.

  137. 137.

    patrick II

    It might be to the Republicans advantage to have Walker lose. Walker is clearly Trump’s candidate and it would be the clearest and most damaging loss for Trump and his reputation among the Republican base as a “winner”. It would diminish his chances of being the presidential nominee. Not as much as jail would though.

  138. 138.

    kalakal

    @Layer8Problem: Hah, I’ve just finished watching the first episode. It’s interesting so far. Is it me or is their something odd with the soundtrack? It almost sounds like the cast are just reading the lines

  140. 140.

    cain

    Yeeha! It fucking sucks that we couldn’t keep the house – but hey, there might still be a chance we might get some special elections. Regardless, we got some judiciary folks to fill so that we can make sure that we don’t get some stupid shit happening.

    Too bad the SCOTUS is out – maybe one of the conservative judges might do us all a favor and decide to retire.

  143. 143.

    dmsilev

    The Needle(tm) is back online and is slammed all the way up against the “blue wins” peg. Prediction for the final margin is Warnock +3 percentage points.

  146. 146.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

     Sumter County (Jimmy Carter’s home) now all in.

    Warnock’s 53%-47% is about what he got in 2021, and up a few points from last month.

    Thanks, Jimmy 🦷🦷

  149. 149.

    jonas

    I think Warnock will squeak out a win tonight (inshalah), but the fact that Walker is even remotely in contention here simply proves that GA Republicans (like the rest) hate Democrats more than they love America. Walker was a joke/troll candidate with absolutely no qualifications for elected office (much less *Senator*) and whose personal life and values were (like Trump’s) a complete repudiation of what they claim to value. If they have to live in an America with the kinds of things that Raphael Warnock values, they’d rather just burn it all to the ground. Their love of country was only as deep as their love for their (white, evangelical) tribe.

  150. 150.

    Dan B

    Great news in a day filled with good news!  Now Biden and Schumer can fill the courts with good judges.

  152. 152.

    Steeplejack

    @Steeplejack:

    Georgia has 159 counties. Example: Earlier tonight I was looking at one shithole county, Berrien, that went something like 80-85% for Walker. Population about 18,000 people, 79% white; 10,926 active voters, turnout 2,719. Quick and easy to tabulate and report. So about 2,200-2,300 white racists voting for Walker. A lot of Georgia counties are like that, contributing to the GQP step 2 bump.

    This map gives a good view of the Georgia county muddle. You can hover over each one to get some details.

  155. 155.

    MazeDancer

    Beyond Dave Wasserman, thinking Walker team has known all night.

    Because Walker HQ is sparsely populated and depressed, and has been since 7:OO.

    Warnock HQ has been packed and partying from the jump.

  158. 158.

    Jean

    @Layer8Problem: I just finished 1899, and I’m sorry I watched it.  The ending is VERY unsatisfying.  Generally, I don’t like sci-fi of any sort, but I wanted to know the resolution of the mystery.  Ugh.

  160. 160.

    Layer8Problem

    Yeah, I mean Maddow sounds like she’s just phoning it in, and Kornacki has all the expressiveness of tapioca pudding . . .

    Oh, you meant 1899.  The sound is weird all over that show.

  161. 161.

    WaterGirl

    @Ken:  We have been waiting to do our post-election analysis until the GA runoff was over, but we’ll start that in a day or two.  But our $930,000 surely gets a small post office in a small GA county, right?

  162. 162.

    Ken

    @Matt McIrvin: It’s very much like elections in Virginia, where Fairfax County always reports late.

    Which is often spun as some sinister conspiracy, instead of the obvious difference between counting the quarter-million votes of a major city, versus the 400 or so from Taliaferro County.

  165. 165.

    Kent

    @Jean:@Layer8Problem: I just finished 1899, and I’m sorry I watched it.  The ending is VERY unsatisfying.  Generally, I don’t like sci-fi of any sort, but I wanted to know the resolution of the mystery.  Ugh.

    My sentiments exactly.   I would have much preferred it to be just a standard period piece.  That is an interesting enough time period all on its own.

  168. 168.

    Kent

    Slate has up a very good article about how we won the WA-3rd with the help of Balloon Juice.  Remember when I begged you all to take a loot at that race and support it?

    Here you go if you want something inspirational to read while you wait for the GA numbers to come in.  TLDR?  Bottom line?  The secret sauce was in-person door knocking.  The only error in the article is that it isn’t a “largely rural” district except by area.  It is largely suburban by population.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/marie-gluesenkamp-perez-joe-kent-doorknocking.html

  169. 169.

    Another Scott

    @dmsilev: Incumbency in the US federal government is a hellofa thing.

    And is yet another illustration of how much of an aberration Donnie Loser McLoserman was.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  172. 172.

    Layer8Problem

    @patrick II:  Let me put it this way, the music on my headphones right now is The Chambers Brothers doing “Time Has Come Today”.  The long version.  It suits my mindset.

  173. 173.

    trollhattan

    O/T Behold: Indonesia’s own goal. Tourism, schmourism.

    Tourism operators in Indonesia are still trying to recover from the devastating impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. Now the country’s parliament has passed new laws that some fear could turn tourists away once again – because having sex out of wedlock is set to be outlawed.

    The controversial laws, which critics have labelled a “disaster” for human rights, also ban unmarried couples from living together and restrict political and religious freedoms. There were protests in Jakarta this week, and the laws are expected to be challenged in court.

    The new criminal codes are set to take effect in three years and apply to Indonesians and foreigners living in the country, as well as visitors.

    It has been widely reported in nearby Australia, where some newspapers have dubbed it the “Bali bonk ban”.

    Indonesia’s economy heavily relies on tourism from Australia, which was Indonesia’s number one tourist source before the pandemic. Thousands of people fly to the tropical island of Bali every month to bask in its warm weather, indulge in cheap Bintang beers and rave at all-night beach parties.

    Bali weddings are quite common, and thousands of Australia’s graduate students fly to Bali every year to celebrate finishing high school.

    For many young Australians, a trip to Bali is seen as a rite of passage. Others go there a few times a year for quick, cheap getaways. But as soon as news trickled through that the raft of new laws were becoming reality, after being mere rumours for years, doubt over future trips set in.

    I know where they could hire a few morality police.

  174. 174.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Popehat @Popehat 17m

    This would be humiliating for the Republicans if they were capable of shame, and deeply disappointing for Herschel Walker if he understood where he was or what had happened.

    Seriously tho it’s entirely grotesque how the GOP took advantage of someone so clearly in need of ongoing help.

  175. 175.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    And I say, Balloon-Juice today! Balloon-Juice tomorrow! Balloon-Juice forever!

    Gawd, I can only imagine the neurotic fear, loathing and panic on the other sites.

  176. 176.

    jonas

    This is going largely as expected. Big urban districts/counties take longer to tally votes because 1. there are a lot more of them and 2. some polling places have to stay open late to accommodate people still standing in line when polls close which, natch, seems to always be a “problem” only afflicting high-minority precincts. This always happens, which is why Republicans start popping champagne corks around 8-9pm after the last votes in Weevil Co. have come in, and then always cry foul when the urban precincts start reporting later in the evening and the scales start to tip the other way.​
     

    ETA: or, what Ken upthread just wrote

  179. 179.

    SFAW

    @Anoniminous: ​
     
    I must be looking at a different version of the FTFTFNYT than you, or maybe I went back in time for an hour, because I don’t see that anyplace.

  180. 180.

    WaterGirl

    @Kent: I saw that article earlier today!  We’ll be talking about that  among other things – in our post-election look at what we funded this year and how things turned out.

  183. 183.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @dmsilev:

    With Warnock’s victory tonight, this election cycle is the first time in history that every incumbent senator seeking re-election has won re-election

    that’s interesting, suprising, too

    @Kent: I think you’re right. Hopefully the purpling of GA continues between now and the next most important election of our lives

    ETA: kinda fun watching the MSNBC crew pretend they haven’t seen Wasserman (et al), and that they don’t know 90+% of their viewers have seen it too

  185. 185.

    Anoniminous

    November results:

    Warnock: 1,520,451

    Walker: 1,513,392

    Current with 90% reporting:

    Warnock: 1,543,684

    Walker: 1,529,899

  187. 187.

    Layer8Problem

    @Jean, @Kent: I liked it, it hit my weird buttons.  I thought they did a good job with the turn of the twentieth century liner setting, and trying to figure out all the screwy stuff (high-functioning wireless telegraphy in 1899, and other things), before the big reveal.  I am definitely looking forward to a second season.

  189. 189.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    The Union forever,
    Hurrah! boys, hurrah!
    Down with the traitors,
    Up with the stars;
    While we rally round the flag, boys,
    Rally once again,
    Shouting the battle cry of Freedom.

  190. 190.

    Splitting Image

    @Kent:

    Honestly we are fucking lucky that they did.

    A good GOP candidate could have won this race.

    It honestly may not make much of a difference anymore. So few Republican voters actually seem to care about the person they’re voting for, as long as they are on Team R, that Nathan Bedford Unbeatable might not have done better than Walker did.

    Remember, the idiot they ran in Pennsylvania also lost, but the idiot they ran in Ohio won. Candidate quality was not the difference there.

  193. 193.

    Joseph Patrick Lurker

    @Shalimar:

     I understand why people find Kornacki annoying

    @Layer8Problem:

     Kornacki has all the expressiveness of tapioca pudding . . .

    What’s the deal with someone always dissing Steve Kornacki on Election Day?  I can’t think of anyone else on the air who does a better job.

  196. 196.

    dww44

    @TriassicSands:  The  closeness of this race is very much attributable to the voting restrictions put in place by the GOP controlled legislature in early 2021 that cut the time before runoffs in half and added in very strict bureaucratic steps to get an absentee ballot, which made it impossible to use that in this runoff election.   A report yesterday shows that there was an 82% drop in absentee ballot voting between 2020 and 2022 in Georgia, more than  any other state.  So if Warnock wins, it should be viewed as a real victory with the voting machinery stacked against him.    I hate Republicans.

  197. 197.

    Jean

    @Kent: I agree!  I wish it had been, and in the beginning, because I didn’t hear anything about the show yet, I thought it was a period mystery, but no, it had to be totally bizarre.

  199. 199.

    Anoniminous

    Kornacki just said Walker won a county in the Atlanta metro area by 400 votes.  Bush took the same county by 45% in 2004.

  201. 201.

    Kent

    @Splitting Image: Candidate quality still makes a difference.

    Kemp ran way ahead of Walker in GA

    Oz ran way ahead of the completely insane Mastriano in PA

    Now Kemp and Oz weren’t that great of candidates, but they were certainly better than Walker and Mastriano.

  202. 202.

    cain

    @eclare: I didn’t want to imply that I was looking for death hence the more “innocent” response.

    Maybe John Roberts will want to screw the SCOTUS and quit! Hey it might happen, there is the legacy he would be looking for! Otherwise, he’s stuck with the loons!

  203. 203.

    different-church-lady

    Dear scoreboard: I would like to go to sleep some time tonight. Please add 30k votes to Warnock’s total. Now.

  204. 204.

    Ken

    This thread has reminded me of something I was going to ask a month ago, but forgot. Which article of the Constitution says that the election is over when Dave Wasserman calls it?

  205. 205.

    MazeDancer

    Taniel tweeted:

    Turnout in the two biggest *red* counties that are done reporting today (Hall and Paulding) is down 11-12% compared to November

    Wasserman says he thinks Warnock will win by 2 to 3 points. Which he considers in the current environment “a Democratic blowout”.

  207. 207.

    James E Powell

    I’m not doubting Wasserman, he knows what he is doing. But the GA Sec’y of State only has Warnock ahead by ~12K with 87.42% counted.

    Assuming it’s all okay and I don’t need to worry, a gajillion thanks to all the people who worked their asses off in Georgia and all the people here & elsewhere who wrote, texted, donated, prayed, sent positive thoughts through the cosmos, danced, and sang.

  208. 208.

    Mousebumples

    @dkinPa: we all do what we can, when we can. And (for #PostcardsToVoters only), over 1 MILLION runoff postcards went out. I’m not sure how many Maze Dancer distributed.

    I love our pro-Democratic teamwork. 🤩

  209. 209.

    Another Scott

    @dww44: +1

    When Democrats vote, Democrats win.

    That’s why the GQP is fighting so hard to keep Democrats from voting.

    That’s it.  That’s the whole ballgame.

    Congratulations to Senator Warnock and the good people of Georgia.

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  212. 212.

    Layer8Problem

    @Joseph Patrick Lurker:  Geez, man, I just compared an obviously highly caffeinated individual’s aspect to tapioca pudding.  I think it’s irony, definitely not litotes.

    I respect what he does, he’s the greatest Kornacki who ever Kornackied, but I find him slightly irritating and would prefer a little pull back to a broad overview of the political situation in the state and the prospects, not “Walker leads by 89%” in each low-vote red county that had all its votes counted and reported real soon after the polls closed.

  215. 215.

    TriassicSands

    @dww44:

    I’m with you in hating Republicans. And, yes, if Warnock wins, it’s a real victory.

    It’s still amazing that Herschel Walker was the best candidate the fascists could come up with. That’s what happens when all you care about is winning and, sadly, in this country, athletes have a credibility that is completely undeserved based on their athletic careers.

    Very few sports stars are likely to be truly viable elected officials. The biggest exception in my lifetime was Bill Bradley, but his background wasn’t anything like that of Walker. One could vote for Bradley precisely because he was intelligent, whereas the biggest stretch in the world would never get you there with Walker.

  216. 216.

    CaseyL

    I also sent postcards, and remember that some of them went to Albany.  But I didn’t send nearly as many as other BJers.

    I’m also holding off my dance of joy until more people besides Wasserman call the race.

  219. 219.

    Kent

    Sheesh, just turned on MSNBC and they are still going with “too close to call”

    I guess they want to keep the eyeballs long as they can.

  222. 222.

    Layer8Problem

    Dave Wasserman aside, MSNBC puts a stop to the horse race and declares Warnock the winnah.

  226. 226.

    trnc

    @Ken: ​
     

    Which article of the Constitution says that the election is over when Dave Wasserman calls it?

    The BadAssnth

  233. 233.

    Anoniminous

    @James E Powell: ​
     
    Urban areas are, as usual, running behind rural counties. They are rock solid D. That plus the fact Walker ran out of places to get votes is why – I bet – MSNBC called

  236. 236.

    Another Scott

    @James E Powell: Public-facing government web sites are often slowly updated.  I don’t know how the news outfits get numbers faster, but they usually do have them quicker than the poor website coders.

    Breathe!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  238. 238.

    Anotherlurker

    This has been a wonderful day!  First, I picked up my new adoptee, a 6 month old Cocker Spaniel. I named her Lucy.  My best friend and his family adopted her brother, Jack.

    Second, congratulations to Senator Warnock!     Wooo hoooooo!!

  242. 242.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    Aaahh.  Today was a good day.  Warnock wins, Trump Org convicted, subpoenas issued by Jack Smith, and we can look forward to the ahem antics of the 118th Congress.  There is hope for the United States.

  248. 248.

    TriassicSands

    @Timill:

    Ford would rank somewhere far below Bradley and  above Walker. He was no great shakes as a politician and made the worst domestic political decision of any president (apart from Trump) in my lifetime: pardoning Nixon.

  250. 250.

    TriassicSands

    Huge, gigantic, massive sigh of relief. The idea of Senator Herschel Walker is just too much to comprehend or even contemplate.

    Congratulations to Senator Warnock. SIX YEARS!

    And a big ef you to Mitchy. He can take his power sharing and…[hundreds, if not thousands, of expletives deleted].

  253. 253.

    Mike in NC

    Looks like this Trump guy is a terrible judge of character and a yooouge loser. Who could have ever imagined?

  254. 254.

    Anotherlurker

    @Kattails: Thanks! She is settling in nicely, for a first day in which she traveled to Napa, from Reno. From there we went to my friend’s home in San Ramone to be reunited with her litter mate and then, finally to my apt. .  She is chill and adaptable.

    My sweet Addie would have loved her.

  255. 255.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    @Shalimar: I love Steve Kornacki.  Who are these people who find him annoying?  He gives intelligent analysis on a county-by-county basis for each state.  He has deep knowledge and can articulate it well.

  261. 261.

    Miss Bianca

    @Anotherlurker: late to the thread, just wanted to say yay for you! As well as, yay for Warnock! And yay for Georgia, and yay for the country!

    I went to bed super early last night and missed all the horse race drama.

Comments are closed.