New study estimates that the COVID-19 vaccination program in the U.S. prevented more than 18.5 million additional hospitalisations and 3.2 million additional deaths. Will this be a triggering as the suggestion that antivaxxers may not be the best drivers?https://t.co/QKC1URUMeT
— Dr Susan Oliver (@DrSusanOliver1) December 13, 2022
That study was done in Canada (but I suspect it scales for the US, because FREEDUMB):
… The increased traffic risks among unvaccinated adults extended to diverse subgroups (older & younger; drivers & pedestrians; rich & poor) and was equal to a 48% increase after adjustment for age, sex, home location, socioeconomic status, and medical diagnoses. The increased traffic risks extended across the entire spectrum of crash severity and appeared similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines. The increased risks collectively amounted to 704 extra traffic crashes.
“The study found traffic risks were 50%-70% greater for adults who had not been vaccinated compared to those who had,” noted Dr. Redelmeier.
“These data suggest COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash, however, this does not mean COVID-19 vaccination directly prevents crashes. Instead, it shows how adults who do not follow public health advice may also neglect the rules of the road. Misunderstandings of everyday risk can cause people to put themselves and others in grave danger.”
The authors recommend that individuals who hesitate to take the COVID-19 vaccine reflect on their choices and recognize how such decisions have repercussions in ways they do not imagine…
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Pandemic's 2-year global death toll may be closer to 15 million, nearly 3x more than previously reported, according to a new WHO study. Researchers say the pandemic caused ~4.5M more deaths than would have been expected in 2020 & 10.4M more in 2021 https://t.co/YxLvattEur
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) December 15, 2022
The deaths from Covid in the first 2 years of the pandemic were nearly 3-fold reported—~15 million globally—by @WHO excess death calculationshttps://t.co/YwZHD4ufC1@Nature pic.twitter.com/sE7wVs0tWR
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 14, 2022
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China put a priority on protecting rural communities from COVID as millions of city-dwellers planned holidays for the first time in years after Beijing abandoned its stringent system of lockdowns and travel curbs https://t.co/tRjDRaZh91 pic.twitter.com/uwtWTBQEx5
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 16, 2022
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In Beijing, patients going to fever clinics jumped 16x this Sunday compared to a week before & calls to the emergency hotline increased 6x
Concern is when covid hits rural areas w/ poor infrastructure
Canned peach craze reflects lack of communication b/t health officials & public— Selina Wang (@selinawangtv) December 15, 2022
Consequence: there's now a waiting list to get bodies into crematorium. RFA wrote about 5-6 days waiting list at 3 crematoriums in BJ (https://t.co/lrZBFwl599), we found 2 more with waiting list of 3-5 days. Means relatives have nowhere to go with the body of their loved one.
— leen vervaeke (@leenvervaeke) December 16, 2022
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Ah, now reporting cases in the hospital- much more transparent and helpful.
I wonder if between this and making Paxlovid available they're going to come around to a sane response🤔 https://t.co/gc92NfD7Wl— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) December 14, 2022
Prof Chen (article below): ‘timing of China's re-opening "not ideal" but had to do it…Singapore/New Zealand made changes when infections at bay…#China moved with full-blown outbreaks… government "heard the voice of the protesters" but not ideal timing.’ https://t.co/qdTleHrz34
— Stephen McDonell (@StephenMcDonell) December 14, 2022
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All is not quiet on the Asian-Pacific front
(besides China) pic.twitter.com/ON6Xhw2DvP— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 14, 2022
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Excellent, if scary, article — worth reading the whole thing:
Long Covid can attack multiple organs and weaken overall immunity for months https://t.co/xv1Za03wA0
— Bloomberg (@business) December 14, 2022
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Beginning & end of a long, informative thread:
I know we got off on the wrong foot in 2020 and I have remained unimpressed with your antics since. But I’m sincerely happy to answer any of your virology questions so you can stick to humiliating yourself in matters of business, law, or pronouns.https://t.co/FHXsb9yEKf
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) December 15, 2022
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Reader Interactions
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YY_Sima Qian
Standard disclaimer: the reported numbers in China no longer track reality, not even the underlying trend. The China National Health Commission is no longer publishing the count of asymptomatic cases, since there are no more mass screenings to find such cases. The numbers to watch are active severe/critical cases, new deaths, & vaccinations.
Local Chinese media has reported the death of a 37 y.o. retired footballer in , from chronic conditions exacerbated by COVID-19. A 23 y.o. medical student at Chengdu in Sichuan Province suddenly died of heart failure. (Medical school students have been pressed to serve in hospitals, at reduced pay compared to the permanent staff, often while positive.) A China analyst posted on Twitter that the father of an acquaintance of an acquaintance in Beijing had died from COVID-19. One of my colleagues in Beijing told me the father of an acquaintance passed away overnight, having gone to the hospital yesterday w/ COVID-19 (did not seem to have severe symptoms), but was turned away w/ some medicine. Yet, the official data continues to show no increased in deaths over the past several days.
I think it is certain that both the central & local authorities will attempt to underplay the death toll from the exit wave, & they certainly have room to do so by playing w/ the definitions (the old debate of deaths of COVID-19 versus deaths w/ COVID-19). However, I don’t think anyone is delusional enough think continued 0 deaths would be credible. Shanghai had reported hundreds of deaths from the Spring 2022 outbreak. The handful of recent deaths from around the country had deemed COVID-19 as contributing (not primary) cause. I think it is plausible that the local authorities are simply waiting for guidelines from Beijing to attribute cause of death to COVID-19, & whatever the death figures in the coming weeks, do not be surprised if there is an upward revision months down the line. Transmission (including nosocomial transmission) has exploded so quickly in parts of China that a significant percentage of deaths in the past week, in cities such as Beijing, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, are likely to be positive for COVID-19 regardless of cause. Including all cases w/ COVID-19 will be a massive number, & no more illuminating for the state of the pandemic in China.
For the time being, we are left to monitor Chinese social media, what is sent over the Great Fire Wall onto international social media, & word of mouth on the state of the healthcare system. The CCP regime can obfuscate on the exact numbers, but a collapse of health care system & a massive wave of death cannot be hidden. So far, that seems not to have happened in the cities at the forefront of the exit wave.
w/ all that said, below are the official numbers:
On 12/15 Mainland China reported 2,091 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new domestic deaths. Mainland China reported 66 new imported confirmed & 0 new imported suspect cases.
Overall in Mainland China, 2,145 confirmed cases recovered (54 imported), 25,685 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (176 imported) & 155 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 116,701 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 34,707 active confirmed cases in the country (424 imported), 193 in serious/critical condition (all domestic, + 26 in the past 24 hrs.), & 19 suspect cases (all domestic). 446,786 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine. There have been 5,235 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
As of 12/15, 3,454.559M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 1.403M doses in the past 24 hrs. As of 12/13, 1,307.222M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 92.73% of the total population), 1,274.018M are fully vaccinated (90.37% of the total), & 815.718M boosted (57.86% of the total). Of the > 60 y.o. cohort, 240.217M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 91% of the cohort), 228.644M are fully vaccinated (86.6% of the cohort), 184.179M boosted (69.76% of the cohort). Of the > 80 y.o. cohort, 27.73M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 77.5% of the cohort), 23.757M are fully vaccinated (66.4% of the cohort), 15.153M boosted (42.35% of the cohort).
On of 12/15, Hong Kong reported 15,726 new positive cases, 823 imported & 14,903 domestic, & 32 new deaths. There have been 11,108 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 12/15, Taiwan added 15,416 new positive cases, 100 imported & 15,316 domestic. There were 24 new deaths. There have been 14,820 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 1,161 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 5,014,885 cases. 1,158 of these new cases were local infections; three new cases were imported. It also reported three deaths, for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,787 deaths – 0.73% of the cumulative reported total, 0.74% of resolved cases.
7,353 Covid-19 tests were conducted yesterday, with a positivity rate of 6.0%.
There were 16,811 active cases yesterday, 404 fewer than the day before. 1,004 were in hospital. 58 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 34 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 1,562 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,961,287 patients recovered – 98.9% of the cumulative reported total.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 2,610 doses of vaccine on 15th December: 160 first doses, 166 second doses, 557 first booster doses, and 1,727 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,532,857 doses administered: 28,117,996 first doses, 27,529,078 second doses, 16,273,181 first booster doses, and 612,602 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.8% their first booster dose, and 1.9% their second booster dose.
YY_Sima Qian
On a more personal note, I finally tested positive on the RAT yesterday morning. I had 3 days of low to medium grade fever that is coming down, some coughing & nasal congestion. The main annoyance has been dizziness & soreness. My daughter has recovered after 3 days, & the rest of the family is on the mend. All of my wife’s extended family in Wuhan have tested positive, & past the peak of symptoms. One relative suddenly lost her taste, after recovering from other symptoms. The urban areas of Wuhan may already be past peak.
Experiences of family, friends, colleagues & acquaintances around the country is similar: mild symptoms akin to the common cold, or more severe symptoms closer to flu, fevers can go as high as 40 C. People definitely are reported stronger symptoms in northern China than southern China, might be due to the different Omicron strains prevalent.
Streets in Wuhan, at least where we live, are very quiet even during rush hour. The restaurants that are open are half empty. The economic impact of the exit wave is already evident. Express delivery services & logistics in general are under severe strain, due to worker absenteeism from infections. Takeout delivery services, normally extremely convenient & prompt & is a core part of urban fabric of life in China, are now unreliability. Grocery deliveries in Wuhan has ground to a halt. Many of the restaurants that had been doing takeouts are now shut. All likely due to infections. Manufacturing operations are being sustained by workers w/ asymptomatic/mild symptoms continuing to work. Given the speed of transmission so incredibly high, the exit tsunami may arrive & recede more quickly than anticipated, & the period of socioeconomic tumult may be shorter than feared.
There are few ambulances on the streets, one can hardly hear the sound of sirens. There are reports of long lines at fever clinics, but not necessarily ERs. No horror stories have emerged from hospitals, yet. It appears the vast majority of the population have heeded the advise of avoiding hospitals unless there is a medical emergency, which is helping the health care system cope for now. How the situation will pan how for of the rest of the exit tsunami is anyone’s guess. At least the people in rural areas, especially the elderly, are better vaccinated than those in urban areas.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
58 new cases on 12/13/22.
102 new cases on 11/14/22.
108 new cases on 12/15/22.
rikyrah
Ordered my tests yesterday
New Deal democrat
Biobot updated yesterday, and the news was *relatively* good, as COVID wastewater particles appear to have peaked for the moment in all regions except the West, where they are declining.
Confirmed cases also appear to be peaking at 64,500, slightly below their level of one week ago. Hospitalizations have increased only slightly, by 1,300, in the past week, to 36,000. Deaths have declined to 374. In the past 8.5 months, “only” 103,000 people have died from COVID, an annual rate of about 140,000, which is awful except in comparison to the 500,000 deaths in each of the first 2 years of the pandemic. As usual, deaths are concentrated among un- and under-vaccinated seniors.
Regionally the South has the lowest rate of confirmed cases, and the Northeast has the highest. By jurisdiction the highest rates are in PR, NY, NJ, UT, IL, GA, RI, CA, AZ, and WI. The lowest are in AK, VT, ID, DC, HI, WA, WY, FL, ME, and OR. If there is any theme to this list, it is that rural areas seem to have lower rates than concentrated urban States.
Later this morning the CDC will update its variant tracker, and the only real question will be whether any other of the Alphabet soup variants have gained any traction vs. BQ.1&1.1.
All things considered, despite the fact that we can expect further increases in cases from holiday get-togethers, it is encouraging that the Thanksgiving wave peaked after less than three weeks, despite the evaporation of almost all mitigation measures. This is probably what endemicity among a thoroughly previously exposed population looks like.
arrieve
I had a very mild case of Covid in January. Now I have it again. And this is not mild. First night, non-stop vomiting, second night non-stop coughing. And apparently I can’t take Paxlovid because of other medications, so I’m on Lagevrio, the Merck antiviral which is about one third as effective. Has anyone else taken it? Did it help?
I can’t imagine how sick I’d be if I hadn’t had five vaccinations because I am pretty fucking sick.
The worst part of is that I am finally finishing my Master’s this week. Saturday was going to be my last class (teaching English) and the end of semester party and I won’t get to say goodbye to my wonderful students.
lowtechcyclist
Let’s put it bluntly: the GOP is the Asshole Party. They’re all about their freedom to be assholes without any repercussions.
They became anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-social distancing (and antisocial in general) because it was a way of expressing their jerkitude and opposition to the very notion that there are times when we’re all in this together.
Well, people who are assholes are much more likely to drive like assholes, and people who drive like assholes get in a lot more traffic accidents than people who don’t drive like assholes. I think we all know that.
So while correlation isn’t causation, sometimes it can point to a common cause: in this case, conservatism and Republicanism, and the assholism at the root of both.
lowtechcyclist
@arrieve:
Sorry you’re having such a bad case of Covid this time, and especially sorry that it’s ruining this moment you were looking forward to.
YY_Sima Qian
@arrieve: Sorry to hear that! When was your last booster shot, if I may ask?
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: Any idea on the impact of repeated infections. I keep seeing anecdotes from the US & Europe of people having worse symptoms on their 3rd infections (but there is certain to be a strong selection bias on social media). w/ all of the vaccine shots & infections, shouldn’t symptoms be progressively milder?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Please take care and get better soon. This is all so horrifying. During the pandemic many of us watched China perform so well, and we were jealous of your freedoms and safety, of the way you didn’t have to fear for your elders’ safety, while we were terrified that if we hugged ours, we’d kill them. And now it seems like we’re going to watch a new wave of death, only this time in China, the last place anybody expected it.
It’s all horrifying. Is the government at least expending more effort on getting vaccines into arms?
Argiope
@YY_Sima Qian: So glad to hear that you and yours are on the mend, especially your daughter. Thank you for the updates, both personal and writ large.
Argiope
@arrieve:
So sorry you’re dealing with this now, of all times. Get well soon, and start planning a real humdinger of a PhD defense party, perhaps? Swinging from chandeliers, the works.
arrieve
@YY_Sima Qian: I got the bivalent in early October
ETA: But almost everyone in school stopped wearing masks a while back. I still wore one but would have to pull it down when I was teaching pronunciation. I’m sure that’s where I got it. They sent out an email this week suggesting (but not requiring) that everyone start masking up again. Too little, too late.
Soprano2
That really surprises me, here it’s the exact opposite. Are people still wearing masks in public? Because if I were there, I certainly would be. I have always thought the zero Covid policy was headed for a bad ending; even in a country like China you can only suppress people for so long in this way before they rebel, although it sounds like it’s more about not being able to control infection due to Omicron than anything about what the Chinese people actually want.
Ordered my tests this morning. I haven’t checked the ones I have at home yet to see if they’ve been extended. They also have free tests at City Hall if I want to pick up 3.
YY_Sima Qian
First media reports of COVID related deaths in Beijing. There clearly are deaths where COVID-19 was at least a contributing factor, & there will be many deaths w/ COVID-19 simply because there has been such rampant spread. What I am surprised at is very few such mentions in Chinese social media or have seeped over the Great Fire Wall. Normally these developments will show up a day or two before western MSM. If an elder died because of COVID-19, & official death counts remain fixed, someone will raise a stink. Perhaps we will see more of it as the deaths mount.
Beijing death toll mounts as Covid sweeps through Chinese capital
Official count shows no fatalities in weeks but bodies have been seen at hospitals and crematoria
lowtechcyclist
After our household dodging this bullet for nearly three years, my wife tested positive for Covid on Wednesday night. She’d been feeling crappy all day, and logged off work in the late morning because she couldn’t concentrate at all. After most of a day of this, she figured she’d better check for Covid, and sure enough, that second line on the test gizmo popped up right away, no need to wait fifteen minutes.
All three of us are fully vaxxed and boosted. The kiddo spends most of his time in his room when he’s home, which should minimize his exposure to his mom’s germs. I’m wearing a mask when I’m in the living room or the kitchen, whether or not she’s there at the same time. She tried masking, but she’s blowing her nose every few minutes if not more often, so good luck with that.
I got hit with a bad head cold the week after Thanksgiving, and it lasted through the middle of last week. At first, she was saying I probably had Covid and didn’t know it, but what I had was completely indistinguishable from head colds I’ve had in the past. What she’s got includes head cold symptoms but also a lot more than that: fever, aching all over, stuff like that – more comparable to influenza if anything.
This wouldn’t be so bad, except that we’re flying to Florida next Thursday (or maybe not, now) to spend Christmas with her family, including her dad who’s 81 and in poor health. She’s worried that (a) she might not be well enough to travel, (b) that either the kiddo or I might get it from her and not be well enough to travel (we’d certainly have less time to recover before traveling), and (c) she/we might give her dad a case of Covid.
I have a feeling we may be celebrating (?) Christmas at home. One more wrinkle: she’s already had the kiddo’s Christmas presents shipped to her dad’s house in Florida. There just ain’t no good way through all this.
At least we aren’t worried about Covid killing her, the way we would have been just two years ago. That at least we can be thankful for.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: Our treatment plants are still showing low levels of Covid, although there was a slight uptick at the north plant at the end of November. Considering that a little over half of the population of Springfield has had at least two shots, that’s not terrible. Someone kicked someone’s ass at our south plant in August, because data suddenly started showing up again after it stopped in May. I don’t know what happened there.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Thank you!
It was going to happen sooner or later. Since vaccines that are effective at blocking transmission did not emerge, & SARS-CoV-2 has not yet to evolve to very mild pathogenicity, a bad exit wave is baked in. There are many things the Chinese government could have & should have done that would have improved things at the margins, but they would only have improved things at the margins.
We have seen this play out already in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia & New Zealand. What is different is the information opacity. Case data would always be massive undercounts w/o mass screenings, but lack of credibility on deaths is very concerning.
I am thankful that my in-laws & their siblings have had mild to moderate cases so far. I am still quite concerned about the danger to my wife’s grandparents.
Ohio Mom
That’s interesting about guanfacine. It was first used to treat high blood pressure, then newer drugs made it obsolete for hypertension.
Nowadays it is used to treat attention issues (ADHD) and tic disorders. And now apparently, brain fog.
Betty
@YY_Sima Qian: As someone who has had 4 shots and 3 infections, I can say that my symptoms got milder with each case. The first case was before vaccines were available. The 3rd was after the 4 shots. Still wondering what all the long-term damage may be.
YY_Sima Qian
@Soprano2: One speculations is that urban elders are more connected online, & thus more vulnerable to misinformation wrt vaccines (there certain those floating around on WeChat groups, even now). Urban elders also have access to better healthcare, & generally felt very safe under “Dynamic Zero COVID”. Rural elders are more likely to play along w/ government mobilization campaigns, including for vaccination.
As for what the Chinese people wanted, there was a large diversity of opinion. Some no longer wanted to put up w/ the lock downs, others wanted to stay the course w/ DZC. Some who had pushed for opening are now regretting the consequences. It depended on how much DZC policies have affected the individual. It took all of the socioeconomically damaging soft lockdowns & mass screenings just to contain the Omicron outbreaks, & population compliance was waning rapidly.
Masking rate is almost 100% (though too many still wear surgical masks), & the streets are quiet as many people stay home. That has not stopped COVID-19 from quickly burning through the urban populations of Beijing & Wuhan (& presumably other Chinese cities). Omicron is just that transmissive, & Chinese urban environment is just that dense. There is no graceful way to exit in the age of Omicron, as we have seen w/ other Zero COVID countries/regions.
Ohio Mom
@lowtechcyclist: When Ohio Family had Covid the first part of November, a casual observer wouldn’t think we all had the same virus.
Ohio Dad’s symptoms completely resembled a head cold: lots of nasal congestion and sneezing but still fairly energetic through the ten days or so while it ran its course.
I had what looked the flu, with a fever, chills, aches and fatigue, but no nasal congestion at all; Ohio Son was just quietly miserable, also with no nasal congestion, but for a shorter time period than his parents.
So maybe you did have Covid? I had to laugh at your son holed up in his room, that also describes Ohio Son.
YY_Sima Qian
@Argiope: Thank you for the kind words!
Fraud Guy
The problem with the Grossman tweet is that anti-vaxxers claim almost every death, even that from Covid (if vaccinated), as a vaccine related death, so to them there have been millions of deaths already.
Matt McIrvin
We’re clearly into our winter wave here in MA; it might have hit a second peak but it’s a safe bet that the biggest one is still in the future. I can’t say that so far it’s been much milder than last winter; case rates are much lower but that is clearly bogus, since wastewater and hospital admissions are comparable. But at this point last year the Omicron wave hadn’t really gone vertical yet.
A bunch of my coworkers are back at the office but I will probably hold off my return until the new year at least.
kalakal
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m sorry to hear of your illness and glad to hear that you and your family are on the mend. I very much appreciate your comments, both on the Covid posts and elsewhere. Hope you’re all well again very soon
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: On vaccination, the number of shots into arms have increased 13X fold over the past week+. The Chinese government had tried all kinds of carrots & sticks to motivate the elderly refuseniks to take the shots, everything short of mandates (which some cities tried but had to back pedal quickly after public outrage), but the drive hit a wall by Q3.
I guess fear is a great motivator.
dmsilev
Locally, hospitalizations seem to have peaked a week or two ago, or at the very least are on an extended plateau. Much better than previous winter waves (this year: ~1300 people in the hospital county-wide, last year at the height, ~4600). Fingers crossed that this is truly the peak.
Soprano2
@Ohio Mom: That was me and my husband when we had Covid, we had completely different symptoms while we had it at the same time!
YY_Sima Qian
@kalakal: Thanks. All in all my symptoms were not too bad, the fever is almost gone. I actually had a worse viral infection back in early Oct. Back then I had 5 days of fever, including 3 days of high fever, & a deep cough that lingered for a month. It wasn’t COVID-19, as I had been tested 5 times on PCR during the 1st week.
kalakal
@arrieve: Sorry to hear that. Hope you regain your health very soon
Soprano2
@YY_Sima Qian: I remember when the shots were first available to me, I immediately went on the Web site and scheduled the first time I could get. I almost cried when I got the second shot, I was so relieved to have some protection. So yeah, fear is a great motivator.
kalakal
@lowtechcyclist: Sorry to hear about your wife’s illness, I hope she gets well very soon. I get where you’re coming from with the head cold/covid thing. I have chronic sinus problems and every so often I feel like I have about half a dozen covid symptoms, then I settle down.
kalakal
@Soprano2: Oh I know what you mean about the sense of relief. I felt like a load had been lifted from me
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian: “ I keep seeing anecdotes from the US & Europe of people having worse symptoms on their 3rd infections (but there is certain to be a strong selection bias on social media). w/ all of the vaccine shots & infections, shouldn’t symptoms be progressively milder?”
There’s published data that at least *some* people have progressively worse symptoms with re-infection. Emphasis on *some.* That absolutely does not exclude that for *most* people, the symptoms are milder (or not even noticed).
The aggregate data on hospitalizations and mortality, which is objective, is pretty persuasive that there are progressively fewer worst case outcomes. Not perfect, because the biggest pool of the most vulnerable to the worst outcomes were already killed earlier in the pandemic – but still pretty compelling (imo anyway).
Nicole
@YY_Sima Qian: @arrieve: Wishing you both speedy and full recoveries.
I attended a holiday party on Sunday; the first indoor social event I’ve attended since May (which was a wedding, where I caught my second case of Covid). There were about 15 guests at this party, and six now have Covid. I’m testing negative and no symptoms, so that’s good, but man, it feels like this will never end. Fortunately none of the six who caught it sound like they’re terribly ill; they’re ranging from no symptoms to uncomfortable but not miserable.
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: Thank you for the explanation.
I must say discussing the pandemic w/ the community here has helped me prepared for the exit wave in China, & helped me educate other on what the new normal will likely be post-exit wave. For that I am quite grateful.
Case in point, I told my wife & family that we now have to do at least the RAT before visiting our oldest & most vulnerable elders, or before large family gatherings (Chinese New Year comes to mind for both). It was not something that ever occurred to any of them.
lowtechcyclist
@Ohio Mom:
The kiddo’s fifteen this year, and that’s the way they are these days, communicating on TikTok and other social media. Seems to work for them.
It’s always possible that that head cold was Covid, I suppose, but I still have a hard time believing it. Too late to tell now, though – I didn’t bother to test myself because it really was a classic head cold like I could have had anytime in the past fifty years.
I’m supposed to help out with concessions tonight at our local community theater, and I’m going to test myself this afternoon to make sure I’m safe before going.
Another Scott
@rikyrah: Same. They’re supposed to ship next week.
The last time I tried to order some from USPS (a few months ago), they said that I had received my entitlement so I couldn’t get any more. They seem to have reset the counter with this announcement, so if anyone was in a similar situation as me, go do it.
Post-Thanksgiving wastewater virus numbers are taking off like a rocketship so be careful out there…
Cheers,
Scott.
gvgl
I don’t understand China’s decision to go from total control to let it rip. I really don’t understand. I always knew it would be hard to transition and they seemed to be making no effort to prepare for it which is IMO why people got frustrated, but the total change is weird.
They could have announced a target date and presented vaccinations as a fear warning….even let some cities go first so people would believe.
I guess it is good they are finally choosing to vaccinate (some people I mean). I wish I had better faith in their own vaccines.
The policy change is almost like a different faction won control. If so the new policy is not going to look good. Something more moderate would have been better I think.
YY_Sima Qian
@gvgl: There is no moderate way to contain Omicron spread. The latest Omicron variants have R0 > 10. Hong Kong & Taiwan had maintained quite a bit of mitigation measures (relative to common practice in North America & Europe) after Omicron breached efforts at containment, these soft measures didn’t do much to slow transmission.
As for letting some cities be the guinea pigs, the selected cities would need to be sealed off by cordon sanitaire, & the populations there would probably revolt. Arguably, Shanghai in spring 2022 did try the softer approach to contain Omicron, until it was exporting so many cases to the rest of China that they were triggering lock downs across much of the country.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for your continued reporting here. I’m glad you’re recovering.
Does China publish wastewater virus numbers? I’ve been using that as a metric here as it seems to be something that (even with all its problems – the 1-2 week lags, the missing of many cities and all septic systems, etc.) is of some value in figuring out how bad infections are in an area.
Thanks.
Fingers crossed for everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Moar You Know
I know some for-real political anti-vaxxers at this point, people who specifically won’t get COVID boosters because Republicans say it’s not cool. Quite a mental ecosystem they’ve built up there.
Not precisely sure what she means by this, but if she thinks even one of these people are going to reconsider, she is wrong. They have been taught, and sincerely believe, that these numbers are nothing but raw made-up bullshit.
Quite a few of them believe any excess deaths in 2020, 2021 and 2022 are from the COVID vaccine and that COVID has not killed one single person.
Don’t know how this gets fixed. I am at a total loss as to what we should do with these people.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: I am sure Chinese health authorities monitor waste water, based on the odd published paper & media reports. However, it is not released to the public. Hasn’t been all that relevant under DZC. Definitely would be useful now!
frosty
Looks like I’m part of the trend, along with everyone in the household. My son came home from college, tested positive on 12/3, I was a day later, my wife a day after me. I took a round of Pax and was feeling 95% normal on Day 9. Then yesterday Day10 the rebound hit. Same symptoms as before. Ugh.
jonas
Our family is weathering now a 3rd wave of colds since September. No Covid, but lots of sinus congestion, coughing, etc. Everyone in our community seems to have some version of cold or flu right now, but I don’t know anyone who’s had Covid in a while. Fingers crossed.
And speaking of Covid and boosters and all that, sure enough a new ABC poll out shows widespread hesitancy to get the new bivalent booster, primarily because people don’t think it works. Well duh. The medical Twitterati and other reporters out there on the Covid beat have been going on and on about how omicron is a million times more contagious than earlier variants and totally bypasses even your boosted immune system. What are people supposed to think? To most ears that = “why bother?”. The broader public still doesn’t seem to grok that a vaccine won’t always prevent you from contracting Covid, but it will dramatically reduce the chances that it puts you in the hospital or kills you and the media has played an outsize role, imho, in perpetuating that misperception.
jonas
@The Moar You Know: There was some report/study out the other day showing that there is a very slight risk in some people that mRNA vaccines can produce a certain kind of heart problem. Of course, the anti-vaxxers latched on to this and have been screaming for days now that we have ironclad proof now Covid boosters will basically kill you. If you look at all the studies on Covid/Covid vaccines and heart health, the one major, incredibly robustly-demonstrated conclusion is that the worst thing for your heart is *getting Covid*. But you can’t reason someone out of something that they weren’t reasoned into to begin with.
Even more worrying now is that we’re starting to see not just Covid vaccine resistance, but a significant segment of the population now turning against other routine childhood vaccinations. I suppose next there will be some kind of movement to ban disinfectants and masks in operating rooms because the germ theory of disease is a liberal globalist conspiracy of some kind. I wish I were joking.
karen marie
I don’t know how I did it but I misplaced my box of N95 masks. I’ve been using several I keep in my car but it’s time to toss them, so I’ve ordered a new box. I just don’t feel protected using the blue masks – why the N95s aren’t with that box is beyond me.
Stay safe, people!
Bill Arnold
@Fraud Guy:
They appear to have forgotten that there were a large number of COVID-19 deaths, and even emerging long COVID (covid sequelae) prior to COVID-19 vaccinations being generally available. Also, COVID-caused myocarditis, and COVID-caused blood clots, and sudden mysterious apparently-COVID-related deaths were happening in populations prior to those populations being vaccinated.
These people cannot have been injured by COVID-19 vaccines, unless those vaccines were time-traveling.
Bill Arnold
@The Moar You Know:
Time-travelling vaccines! We have proof of time-travel!
KrackenJack
You fooled me with the .gov link in a Twitler image, but good for you AL for doing that.
Also I wish the government hadn’t given up on updating their definitions of fully vaxxed. It influences a lot of normies.
JAFD
@lowtechcyclist:
Methinks ‘twould be good time to declare that you’ve converted to Russian Orthodox, and thus are celebrating Christmas two weeks after the rest of us ;-)
Regardless, hope y’all feel lots better real soon !
also, Happy Beethoven’s Birthday, everyone !
eachother
Two particular things bothering me about Covid.
And this is besides Covid affecting Friends here and afar.
One. That an effort to team up against the pandemic was used instead to disable the union.
Two. Tonight is the third garden club Christmas party I will be missing. Mrs. eachother is going. We had Covid in September and got the latest booster 11 days ago.
I hope the only things she brings home are leftovers, the exchanged gift and memories.