There’s an article about Arizona in the Los Angelos Times. I think there must be some mistake because they quote a Republican strategist, someone from Ruben Gallego’s team, and a Democratic strategist who has worked with Kirsten Sinema. No one does that anymore!
There are several questions to be answered heading into next year’s election, chiefly whether Gallego cleared the field; how much former President Trump will influence the Republican primary, and what role, if any, Sinema will play in a potential three-person race. But the biggest question may be how purple is Arizona?
“I wish I could say that Arizona’s turning blue and all the good work we’ve done is convincing people that progressive ideas are right, but that’s not where the state is yet,” said Stacy Pearson, a Phoenix-based Democratic strategist and longtime Sinema ally. “Arizona is not any more progressive, but it continues to reject extremism.”
I knew that Arizona is fairly evenly split between Republicans, Independents and Democrats, with Democrats coming in last by a few percentage points, and I found the information quoted below to be less than encouraging.
Sinema’s favorability rating went up 13 percentage points with independents, to 42%, and 5 percentage points, to 43%, with Republicans after she announced she was leaving the party, according to a January Morning Consult poll. Her support with Democrats fell 12 percentage points, down to 30%.
We all knew her support with Dems has cratered, but I had no idea that Independents more than made up for that with their increase. It’s not at all surprising that Republicans were happy she is leaving the party.
I am pretty sure I have read in the comments here that Sinema’s support was cratering everyday.
In the article, the Democratic strategist working for Gallego’s campaign thinks he can win it. The Democratic strategist who has been working with Sinema believes she can win it. The Republican strategist is quoted as saying this:
“You have to go into this race assuming that she doesn’t stay in, and that you need to win with 50[% of the vote] plus one,” he said. “If she does stay in, there’s a very good chance that she will take more Republican votes than Democratic votes in the general election, and that makes it all the more important that Republicans nominate a strong candidate.”
Apparently Gallego raised more than $1 million dollars in the first 24 hours after he announced he is running. An article from last week posited that the Democratic Party is going to decide who to back in Arizona based on the numbers for the first quarter in which Gallego announced – based on how much/many of the donations are coming from folks in AZ, because they think he can’t win if his support is mostly national.
Sinema has $8 million in her campaign account. I have no idea how far that goes these days, but it seems like a significant amount of money to me.
I don’t have any predictions, but it’s certainly interesting. The article suggests that AZ isn’t really a purple state; they just reject the extreme MAGA republicans. I hope it doesn’t come down to whether the Rs run a crazy MAGA candidate, or just a regular awful Republican. They are all MAGA as far as I’m concerned. If you support it, you own it.
Open thread.
Baud
That’s disheartening, because it means Sinema may not bow out. Oh well.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
Suzanne has been warning people over and over that Arizona is its own special mess and not to count Sinema out.
dmsilev
The LA Times has its issues to be sure, but they tend to be a lot better at covering west-coast-ish politics than the NYT or WaPo. Something about being headquartered west of the Rockies I guess…
SpaceUnit
My experience is that most Independents are not actually independent. It’s like a vanity plate.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: When we had this discussion sometime ago I was given assurances that she is unpopular so it won’t matter.
schrodingers_cat
@SpaceUnit: True but some are weather vanes and do what the people around them tend to do.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
She was unpopular. Looks like she got better.
WaterGirl
It boggles the mind that someone could look at Sinema and see a Senator you want to keep around.
This part made me spit:
If by negotiate you mean that she held stuff up so the rest of the Dems had to negotiate with her, then sure.
SpaceUnit
@schrodingers_cat:
Right. I think it’s interesting that her favorably rates among Independents and Republicans are now pretty much identical.
I don’t know what to read from that but it’s interesting.
WaterGirl
We don’t have to just talk about AZ or Sinema, I just thought it was an interesting article to share.
randy khan
That seems to be about the most favorable favorability poll for Sinema that I’ve seen in a long time, particularly on the Dem side of the ledger. And polls on who people actually would vote for have pretty consistently been much worse than these numbers for her. (It’s actually not easy to translate favorability numbers into how people would vote – for instance, I’d expect that only a tiny fraction of people who identify as Republicans actually would vote for her.)
karen marie
@Baud: I wouldn’t be too disheartened.
First, “independents” are mostly embarrassed Republicans.
Second, Republicans saying they have a positive view of Sinema and Republicans actually voting for Sinema are two entirely different things.
Given the complete shits the Arizona GOP has been puking up as their nominees, I have no doubt they’ll puke up another entirely unacceptable candidate to replace Sinema, and they’ll vote for that puke.
WaterGirl
@randy khan: Maybe the Rs like her because she is fucking with the Dems.
Geminid
Independent support for Sinema went up, but I still wonder if that means they will vote for her if she is lagging the other two candidates. She was well behind in 3-way matchups in polls taken two weeks ago.
I question whether Sinema has built a strong enough personal following in Arizona. Just being an Independent might not rally Independents. The 29% positive rating Sinema had among this group before she went Independent may be a norm she reverts back to over time.
But, if she runs she’ll probably have money, or at least affiliated PACs will, so she can try to sell herself on radio and TV.
schrodingers_cat
@WaterGirl: She was instrumental in writing key parts of the infrastructure bill which got Republican votes. She has authored many bills that have made it out of committee and some have even become law.
You don’t have to take my word for it. You can check her congressional website. I had linked to it the last time we had this discussion.
She and Manchin have been obstructionists about the filibuster and voting rights but I would take them over any R in a heart beat.
Eolirin
@Baud: Sinema not bowing out might help Gallego win. But so much is going to depend on how crazy the R nominee is.
Burnspbesq
@karen marie:
Your expectation is identical to mine, so you will surely be proven correct.
schrodingers_cat
@Geminid: She may not be able to win but she could make the contest too close for comfort.
karen marie
@Burnspbesq: The stupid is burning pretty hot, so it’s entirely possible that we’ll be proven wrong. I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
SpaceUnit
I could be wrong but I can’t imagine her not running. I think being a spoiler on behalf of the Republicans would be nearly as gratifying to her as winning.
Spanky
Unfortunately, Sinema’s got more experience in coming out on top on a three-way.
Amir Khalid
Another day, another scandal for George Santos: this time it’s an accusation of sexual misconduct toward a man applying for a job on his staff.
Jeffro
since this is an OT: the whole Fro family plus friends went to see Journey and Toto last night (yes, really) and neither of those bands needs a lead singer, because the audience kind of took care of that all. night. long. 50 years of hits will do that for a band, I guess!
Speaking of lead singers, what was genuinely shocking was that…yes, I know Arnel Pineda replaced Steve Perry back in 2007 and sounds just like him…but GUESS WHAT? Journey’s drummer AND 2nd keyboardist ALSO SOUND JUST LIKE STEVE PERRY!!1!! (They each did a song last night).
Totally wild. It’s like the ultimate back-up system for a rock band. Lead singer got a sore throat? Just give the drummer a couple extra songs to sing. Drummer out cold with a bottle of Jager? Just give the 2nd keyboardist a few more songs than usual.
Anyway, great show! The first cassette (yes, really) I ever bought was Journey’s FRONTIERS and even though my musical tastes have flown far and wide from arena-pop-rock since then, it’s just cool to hear those classics so well done.
SpaceUnit
@Spanky:
I see what you did there.
RaflW
@schrodingers_cat: Congress as a whole polls somewhere around root canals. Yet virtually all incumbents get re-elected. Of course a lot of that is ‘the devil you know.’
And we have a terrible object lesson from 2016 that deeply self-absorbed jackasses (yes, that’s you too, Kirsten) can win.
Spanky
@Amir Khalid: OK, at this point you have to wonder about a person who would seek a job with Santos.
Dan B
@Burnspbesq: “Governor” Kari Lake is aiming for Sinema’s seat. The crazy is close.
suzanne
Yes.
As i keep reminding….even in 2020, which was the best year for Dems in AZ, like, ever…. non-MAGA GOP candidates won their races statewide.
The dynamic is hard to predict right now, because the AZGOP has been basically in thrall to Trumpy candidates. It’s like Georgia…. if they hadn’t nominated clowns, they probably would have won.
suzanne
@karen marie:
No doubt that they will puke up someone evil. The question is only: Chaotic Evil or Neutral Evil?
WaterGirl
@SpaceUnit: A lot of things will contribute to her decision, but I can’t imagine that she wants to end her Senate career with a big L for Loser on her forehead.
As someone this ambitious who craves the spotlight, she might decide it’s better to not run.
Unfortunately, we won’t likely know until a year from now.
But we will know before then how popular Ruben Gallego is WITHIN Arizona, and that will tell us a lot.
Dan B
Rhonda Sandtits is on his way to taking over Disney’s Reedy Creek. He’s got a 189 page proposal in the Senate that has him appointing five people to a board to oversee the Central Florida Tourist Zone.
And in Muskrat news: There is an increase in child porn on Twitter.
SpaceUnit
@Dan B:
Is that official? Has she announced she’s running?
SpaceUnit
@WaterGirl:
Agree, and I can’t see her making it as a lobbyist.
Geminid
Washinton Post reporter Sabrina Rodriguez had a good article on Ruben Gallego published February 1. It’s titled, “Can Ruben Gallego’s campaign energize Latino voters in Arizona?”
Of course, Gallego knows he has to win votes from more people than just Latinos. But even though they have been catching up in Arizona, Latinos still lag behind their Anglo neighbors in registration and voting and Gallego wants to close that gap.
Amir Khalid
@Dan B:
Has anyone said this to her face yet?
“No, Ms Lake, you are not the duly elected Governor. And the more you keep saying it, the more batshit crazy you sound.”
RSA
As much as I love BJ, I recognize that it’s no less an echo chamber than other places on the Web.
Old School
@schrodingers_cat:
Which one is most impressive?
The Haulapai water rights settlement approved by roll call vote?
The one changing refinancing requirements for veterans passed by voice vote?
Or the bill expanding membership in The American Legion passed by unanimous consent?
Geminid
@SpaceUnit: Lake has not announced. But she says she has spoken to staff at the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, so I guess she at least wants people to know she is considering a run.
TriassicSands
It’s basically nothing, but it depends on how important a race is. In the two Warnock campaigns, both sides together spent over $400 million in each election. Ossoff’s campaign set a record with more than $500 million dollars spent. In that kind of climate, $8 million is rounding error.
In the 4 weeks leading up to the 2022 runoff, Warnock and Walker spent some $81 million — $20 million a week on average.
2020 Warnock vs. Fascist #1 = $406 million
2020 Ossoff vs. Fascist #2 = $514 million
2022 Warnock vs. Polymath Renaissance Man Fascist #3 = $401 million
In 2022 the time between the election and the runoff was shorter than in 2020, so they spent a little less total, but possibly at a faster rate.
$8 million is undoubtedly “worth more” in Arizona than in Georgia, but the Kelly-Masters race combined total came to $236 million — the 3rd most expensive in 2022.
WaterGirl, $8 million is a lot of money to most human beings (it certainly is to me), but in the untethered from reality or ethics world of Citizens United…not so much.
kindness
Let’s unpack this. ‘Independents’ support for Sinema went up when she went Independent. I think a lot of ‘independents’ don’t want to be labeled and aren’t ‘independents’. They’re quasi-Republicans, but don’t want to say that. And a ‘strategist’ who has been working for Sinema thinks she’s a strong candidate. OK, still I’m unconvinced either of these are representative.
It’s all going to depend on who Republicans nominate and I say it’ll be Kari Lake. She’d easily beat any other Republican in a primary run. With that in mind, Lake takes the hardcore Republicans. Sinema takes the right wing ‘independents’ and Gallego takes the rest. With that Gallego wins. Call me Kreskin.
TriassicSands
I think of them generally as definitely less engaged and typically even more poorly informed than their peers in the GOP.
SpaceUnit
@kindness:
@TriassicSands:
There are Democrats masquerading as Independents as well.
I’m actually one of them.
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Mistake anyone could make when seeking a managerial position.
“So you’re very interested in handling my staff?”
//
Soprano2
So OT, I listened to Danielle Moodie interview Elie Mystal on “The New Abnormal” podcast today. They hate, hate, hate Merrick Garland. Evidently he’s the worst Attorney General ever, and should have arrested TFG within two weeks of January 6th happening. According to them none of the “ringleaders” of January 6th have been held accountable (they never name them, evidently we’re supposed to know who they’re talking about but it’s not any of the Oathkeepers or Proud Boys who have been convicted of sedition) and they never will be because Garland is an establishment person who is protecting them. I swear, in some ways they sound as crazy as TFG supporters. I guess they want their perp walk right now regardless of whether the charges would actually stick or not, because they know TFG is guilty so we don’t need any actual evidence that would stand up in court. They don’t seem to understand that every prosecutor works their way up the food chain. According to them, prosecutors never go after drug kingpins either, they only go after the low level people. I swear, Moodie was not an improvement over Molly Jong-Fast at all!
piratedan
8M is good seed money, if you have the intention to grow something….
still believe my earlier take holds true….
Sinema has burned her bridges with the Dems and while she has a small core voting Demo, it is not enough to secure an election by itself. I STILL don’t expect her to run. People being people, she has to understand that when she abandoned the Dem party, Gallego is now going to cache those voters by a vast majority, so where does she grab votes, with the Independents she would have to paint Gallego as an extremist (good luck with that) or by grabbing GOP votes… in Arizona? by doing what exactly? With Fetterman’s election, her ability to be the fulcrum upon which legislation balances is now gone.
Still, when you look at the GOP bench, the LEAST extremist one on the bench is ex-Gov Ducey, the guy who started stealth building “the Wall” with leftover shipping containers, which we just removed. Ducey has tried to have it both ways, being just MAGA enough to not draw any wrath but also doing enough crap to paint him as an extremist anyways when you look at his economic and school policies and his tacit support of a MAGA agenda passed by the state house. Everyone else is pretty much different flavors of rabid dog.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: Independents are a very disparate group. Some identify as Independent because they think Republicans are not conservative enough. There is probably a similar group on the left, but likely smaller.
Political scientists studying Independent voter behavior say a large component consistently votes Republican, a smaller component votes for Democrats consistently, and the smallest portion of all are persuadable swing voters.
In purple states, I think the last group can turn an election. Registration numbers in Arizona as of October, 2020 (when rolls closed) showed Republicans at 35%, Democrats at 32%, and Independents at 31.7% (from Arizona Public Radio). The 2020 election had a record number of voters, and both parties seemed to have turned out their base. With those registration numbers its hard to see how Mark Kelly and Joe Biden could have won without carrying a majority of Independents.
Frank Wilhoit
@SpaceUnit: Just like there is no such thing as a Libertarian who wants *me* to be free.
Dan B
@SpaceUnit: I’ve read a couple articles that she’s making moves to run but I don’t recall the details. No official announcement to date.
Brachiator
May need to know the number of voters of each category, as well as the percentages.
AZ seems to be an interesting place. A good Democratic Party candidate may need to appeal to Independents. Wonder what their biggest issues might be.
piratedan
@kindness: I don’t share your assessment on Ms. Lake being the “de facto” favorite. She won a HOTLY contested primary for the Governors office with a Karin Robson-Taylor, who was of the Libertarian/Commerce branch of the party. Those folks are fighting a trenched warfare battle with the Trumpies. Yes, they are STILL odious and will happily adopt some Trumpy positions to gather votes, but its not a PASSION.
Other potential candidates, current Reps, Gosar, Biggs or Lesko could make a play for the seat as well and have sturdy name recognition within their areas. Lake’s advantage is that her base is Phoenix Metro, so in a way, I would measure the stealth candidate with the best chance could be Madame Lesko, who’s turf is Phoenix adjacent and she’s just as nutty as everyone else, she’s just not as flamboyant as the others and perhaps that could play well if internecine warfare breaks out in the state GOP.
As for someone who out does all these folks, remember the name Wendy Rogers, she’s the wingnuts wingnut and she is righteous and a true believer. She’s the type who leads and participates in pogroms.
Geminid
@piratedan: Yeah, I don’t think Sinema has a path to victory, andit will be clear later this year when she’ll have to decide. If she runs I think it will be out of pride or malice, or both.
I’m curious, though: how do Democrats where you are regard Ruben Gallego?
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Washington Post link to the article you mentioned
Nothing says “professional at work” like orange pants and a top with frilly princess sleeves.
kindness
@SpaceUnit: Sure but you’d vote for Gallego. He’ll get a cut of the independents there.
schrodingers_cat
@Old School: The infrastructure bill was pretty impressive. And definitely more impressive than renaming a post office. YMMV.
WaterGirl
@RSA: Also, one or two people saying something is not everyone.
WaterGirl
@TriassicSands: She should just take the money and run.
SpaceUnit
@kindness:
I always vote a straight Democratic ticket. So yes, I’d vote for Gallego if I resided in Arizona.
piratedan
@Geminid: Gallego is thought of well in S. AZ, which has a strong hispanic element with Raul Grijalva being the de facto “patron” of Southern AZ Democrats. Gallego’s upbringing and military service play well here and his positions sit well with a medium blue Pima County. I suspect he will still play well with the other Dem voting blocs and would do infinitely better than Sinema would with rural hispanic Dem voters that exist in Santa Cruz and Cochise County. There are a LOT of rural hispanic voters out there, maybe with Gallego running getting them registered and to the polls would be a tipping point in more than one race. Not looking at a cult of personality thing around Gallego, but more of a “skin in the game” angle that could have been overlooked before.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: I can’t believe she gets to dress like this and they are making Fetterman wear a fucking suit.
RSA
Of course, and my comment wasn’t mainly about your observation. Sorry if I sounded that way.
I think it was more about the disappointment I felt this morning on seeing a Washington Post headline, “Americans not feeling impact of Biden agenda, Post-ABC poll finds.” I mean, WTF, Americans? Why can’t we see the nose on our faces?! And on BJ I see a post about Buttigieg doing a great job on publicizing this administration’s accomplishments.
suzanne
@Brachiator:
That’s one way to phrase it.
Yes.
A good chunk of the “independent” vote in Arizona are conservative Mormons. They hate Trump and would have voted for Evan McMullin if they could.
Old School
@schrodingers_cat: Who mentioned post offices?
suzanne
@piratedan: As always, I concur with your analysis 100%.
It dawned on me that this would have been the absolute perfect year to run Jeff Flake, had he not been basically run out of the party during the early Trump insanity. That kind of sober, calm, not-crazy-just-low-grade asshole is exactly the type to win Arizona Republicans….when they’re not insane.
Elizabelle
@WaterGirl: They look like tourists who cannot figure out the Metro map.
Baud
@RSA:
Obviously, that headline is wrong. Record low unemployment doesn’t just happen. But it’s correct that the poll numbers don’t reflect the successes yet. Maybe they never will. People love to take Democrats for granted.
Steve in the ATL
@TriassicSands: I feel like about $5M of each of those totals went to direct mail into my mailbox.
Geminid
@piratedan: I thought that nominating and electing Adrian Fontes Secretary of State might have been a significant step forward for Arizona Democrats. People often ponder on how to attract Latinos to the Democratic Party; having visible representation in higher offices should help.
I notice that like Ruben Gallego, Mr. Fontes is a Marine Corps veteran.
Steve in the ATL
@suzanne: you mentioned in an earlier thread that you were a simple, down to earth blue collar gal. How does that square with your Eames chairs?
ETA: and I concur with your use of madras lentils. If you have an extra 90 seconds to spare, serve them over Seeds of Change brown rice/ quinoa/chia seeds.
Skepticat
@SpaceUnit:
As was I until I realized that I’d stopped splitting tickets long ago. I’ve also recently moved to a less-than-liberal area, and I want them to know they’re being infiltrated.
mvr
But he’d look funny in those orange pants.
SpaceUnit
@Skepticat:
I never did much in the way of ticket splitting.
When I registered to vote back in 1992 I was miffed at the Democratic Party for what I saw as betraying its traditional platform (support for organized labor, etc) in order to more easily pursue corporate money. It was a terrible strategy that blew up in their face.
Registering as an Independent was my meaningless gesture of disapproval.
But there are actually some neat benefits to being an Independent. I can vote in either primary.
WaterGirl
@Steve in the ATL: Huh. I would have thought they went to your TV screen!
WaterGirl
@mvr: No worse than she does!
I should add that I am not a clothes snob, unless you set yourself up as some sort of “look at me, avant-garde fashion person, in which case the orange in your top should match the orange of your pants and it would be best not to dress in an outfit that would look cute on a 5-year-old girl.
suzanne
@Steve in the ATL:
LOL, I never said I was blue-collar. I am pretty unfancy, tho. I got the Eames chairs at basically an 80% discount. I should note that Charles and Ray Eames were pretty unpretentious themselves!
WaterGirl
@suzanne: I wouldn’t have said simple, either. No nonsense, for sure, though. Which I like!
Brachiator
@suzanne:
AZ is a state to watch. And I appreciate all your cautions and insights on the state.
mvr
@SpaceUnit: I did the occasional ticket split but mostly not. First Prez vote was for Carter (along with the Communist candidate for governor of Illinois (or possibly it was Secretary of State) iirc since the D was corrupt (Illinois) and the R was an R. In 1980 I was one of the folks who got Barry Commoner on the ballot in Oregon to take a whopping 1% of the vote. This was after Cyrus Vance resigned as Secretary of State because he was losing an internal foreign policy war with Brzezinsky. No harm done in that race since Carter lost by more than that 1% and the Citizen’s party folded into the Jesse Jackson wing of the Ds in 1984.
Sometime in the mid-90s I voted for Chuck Hagel for my Senator so that I could tell him I had (and the Ds were running some crazy guy who I was not sure I agreed with more than Chuck Hagel.) Hagel’s office staff used to call me up for my opinions on the war in Iraq. And Hagel was at least critical of the way the Bush Admin was running that. I think the staff called me so that they could tell him they had heard from people critical of the war. In any case, I’m bad at lying and I seemed to be doing more good calling his office than voting for genuine nutcase Ds. Hagel was the last vote for an R and I can predict that will stand.
SpaceUnit
@mvr:
The Democratic Party just sort of unraveled during the Reagan years.
Seems like it’s only been since 2008 that they’ve started to get their shit back together.
prostratedragon
@WaterGirl: It’d be one thing if she countered the silly clothes with some kind of genuine contributions to a biil, policy debate, anything related to the tasks of the Senate …
Scanning down the comments, I don’t see one of those charming stickers, so I’ll pop: it’s “among” three things, not “between” them.
piratedan
@Geminid: yes, that is part of the tide turning that needs to happen….and also as far as the party changing, I received this e-mail today announcing/introducing Yolanda Bejarano:
Dan,
My name is Yolanda, and I was recently elected as the new chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.
You may not know who I am, so let me introduce myself quickly. I’m currently the field director for the Communications Workers of America, where I recruit and train union members to build more power. As the daughter of immigrants, I ran on continuing to invest in and empowering people of color, young Arizonans, and rural communities to continue to strengthen the AZ Dems and continue to win elections.
I’ve spent my career organizing in every community, fighting for Arizona families, and successfully supporting Democratic candidates across the state. That’s why I ran for this job, and that’s why fellow Arizona Democrats entrusted me with this job.
with hispanic and native voices being added to positions of power, it reduces the perception that Dem Party leadership is solely comprised of “educated White liberals”, which has been one of those pervasive lines of attack against Dems in making inroads with new voters.
RSA
Yes! That’s a huge problem for us, that the general public just assumes Democrats will do the right thing. Protect the environment, Roe v. Wade, NATO, low-income families… And then when bad actors cause problems, Democrats get the blame for not having paid enough attention. It’s infuriating.
karen marie
@Brachiator: AZ is not “an interesting place,” it’s a complete and utter shithole.
Fuck. I really don’t know why people live here. If I could leave, I would.
karen marie
@piratedan: What mailing list are you on that you got that email? I didn’t get one.
Suzanne
@karen marie: Hugs. I hear you.
piratedan
@karen marie: KM, it came from the [email protected] account, I think I got on that list via one of the Democratic blogs subscriptions that I keep tabs on for local level doings…. If I uncover the specific culprit, I’ll pass it along.
mvr
@piratedan: Well, that background sounds promising! Organizing is hard and union folks do that for a living.
Another Scott
@piratedan: AZCentral.com (from 2/2/2023):
Emphasis added.
I agree with you – I don’t really expect her to run either, especially since she hasn’t officially announced (though she has filed the paperwork). But I’m no expert, and if she figures she might actually win, then she might continue to believe that being Maverick McMaverick is the way to a 35 year Congressional career. But since she seems (again I’m no expert) to have little regard for her actual voting constituents, it’s hard to see why she would want to do that when she could start getting her big payday on cable and corporate boards now…
We’ll see!
Go Ruben!!
Cheers,
Scott.
piratedan
@mvr: just as an aside:
https://azdem.org/our-leadership/
there are a wide array of faces there, which reinforces more inclusiveness and I hope allows better policy decisions and ideas.
mvr
@piratedan:
That would be good. Az has so much to lose with shitty government. The southwest is going to have its hands full with climate change and putting idiots in charge just makes it worse. (Had a visiting position in Tucson, which I could have grown to love, but also felt that more people kind of didn’t belong there. Not enough water.)
piratedan
@mvr: Tucson’s position is better than others, as there are mountains surrounding the valley, so runoff from there tends to help replenish the aquifer. Also, the local government does smart stuff like community reimbursement programs and incentive for proper water management, such as xeroscaping properties and water retention programs such as water storage tank reimbursements (which I have taken advantage of for my irrigation needs). so while in many respects Az is indeed a shithole with many much asshattery in its politics, its also a beautiful state with lots of inherently awesome places (Grand Canyon, Canyon de Chelley, Painted Desert/Petrified Forest, Sagauro National Monuments (east and West) etc etc etc and not EVERYONE is an asshole.
El Muneco
“there’s a very good chance that she will take more Republican votes than Democratic votes in the general election”
The number of Republican votes Sinema will/would get in a general election would be lost in the noise. GOP voters will fall in line. In the “drag queen story hour” era, they’re not going to vote for a fashion-forward bisexual woman. And she’s not going to be able to recite MAGA talking points the way Kari Lake could – they aren’t going to respond to huffing NyQuil when they’ve had pure heroin.
I’m just disappointed that Dem favorability is as high as 30% – I’d seen polls where she was pulling less than half that, albeit among “likely primary voters”, which probably inspired the party switch in the first place.
mvr
@piratedan: Yeah, that’s the problem. I could fall in love w Tucson. And I get that it has better government than most of the rest and lots of natural advantages. But still my moving there would be bad for it. When I was there the elevation was dropping as the water table was being pumped out.
So that is why I did not want to fall in love with it and move there. You don’t want to destroy what you love.
El Muneco
@NotMax: “Charlie’s Angels” got there first…
Corwin: “With your hands, I could use someone like you on my staff.”
Alex: “Thanks for the offer, but my hands aren’t going anywhere near your staff…”
El Muneco
@WaterGirl: I actually don’t mind the top, even for a professional gathering. But she should give the pants back to MC Hammer.
Dmbeaster
Sinema has zero chance of re-election. That poll seems like an outlier given all the other polling. Also, it is rather early for polls to mean much.
The AZ GOP is nuts and shows zero signs of changing. There is a reason why their candidates are extremists. They win the primaries. That is very unlikely to change. The number of unhappy non-extremist Republicans is not enough to change primary outcomes, but they do swing general election outcomes in close elections. Lake lost because that small group would not vote for her.
Sinema has no constituency. She has lost all Democratic support. Republicans are not going to vote for her, except perhaps the small group of those unhappy with extreme GOP candidates. Her independent shtick is phony – its just platitudes and hot air. No one has yet been able to build a brand and get elected on the alleged appeal that both parties suck, and therefore someone not in a party is more desirable. The few successful independents are clearly ideological, and that is their appeal. Sinema is the opposite of that. She does not articulate anything.
After all, what is the ideology of someone that goes from Green Party to Wall Street darling? I think she will run in order to sabotage Gallegos, and prove her bona fides to the financial lobbyists that are her constituency. She would like to stay in the Senate because of the advantages, but she probably has a fallback planned in the financial world that she has been courting.
WaterGirl
@Dmbeaster: I am less concerned about whether she wins and more concerns if she puts a Republican in office.