The Florida Democratic Party is holding its annual leadership conference this weekend at the fabulous Fontainebleau Hotel on Miami Beach, a location immortalized in the 1964 James Bond film Goldfinger.
As folks who follow Florida politics are aware, FL Dems have been a hot mess for more than two decades. Steve Schale wrote a pretty good explainer of how that came to be. For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with Schale on every point, and I think some of his analysis is self-serving.
But while it’s important to pinpoint the exact cause of a catastrophic crash, the gist in Schale’s account is mostly correct. The party definitely crashed, and there were lots of contributing factors. (“This is supposed to be a happy occasion! Let’s not bicker about who killed whom…”)
Anyhoo, after the latest electoral wipeout in 2022, the party’s incumbent leaders resigned in the time-honored manner, and following a contentious scrum, former ag commish and second-place 2022 gubernatorial primary finisher Nikki Fried was elected party chair.
Lots of folks are suspicious of Fried, a former pot lobbyist, and I understand why. But I found her “try something new” pitch persuasive in the 2022 primary and in her campaign for party chair. Desperate times, desperate measures, etc.
As noted here before, Fried takes an activist approach. She got arrested this spring while protesting the statehouse passage of the 6-week abortion ban and was filmed getting cuffed by the police while wearing a T-shirt with the slogan “JUST F*CKING VOTE!”
Fried continued that JUST F*CKING VOTE theme at the Fontainebleau yesterday: (Orlando Sentinel)
In Fried’s view, DeSantis didn’t win by 19 points last year. “Florida Democrats lost by 19 points. And that is really on us,” she said.
DeSantis’ vote total didn’t increase substantially from 2018, she said. But Democratic turnout collapsed, and the party’s nominee Charlie Crist (who had defeated Fried in the for the nomination) received far fewer votes than the 2018 Democratic candidate.
Well, she’s right about that. We can piss and moan about stupid voters who require inspiration to show up when a monster like DeSantis is in office, and I’ll agree with every word of that, but if we want to erase that L, we’ve got to do what it takes to get them to the polls. Full stop.
According to The Sentinel, Fried also threw out the usual conference format, which has featured side gatherings of individual constituent groups on the first day, and mixed it up instead so different groups could learn from each other. There was talk about how to juice youth turnout, how to appeal to voters given the state’s complex demographics, etc.
Will the gathering at the Fontainebleau help Dems figure out how to more effectively oppose the man backed by the state’s many Bond villains — the highly subsidized Governor Oddjob — and defeat the many other evil creatures who are making life in the state increasingly intolerable? I have no freaking clue. But maybe they chose the right setting to hatch that plan.
Open thread!
PS: The Fontainebleau really is something special — it’s got a 1950s glamor that’s hard to capture in words. I helped a friend organize another friend’s birthday debauchery event there several years ago and was bowled over! And I’m usually not easy to impress! You shouldn’t give Florida your tourism dollars right now if you can avoid it, but if you can’t, you could do worse than the Fontainebleau.
PPS: It occurs to me that the glamor of Fontainebleau embodies a style that Trump tries and fails to achieve in his gold-plated South Florida dump. Whereas Trump hired a designer who vomited Liberace-themed schlock all over the good bones of the former Marjorie Merriweather Post estate, aiming for Versailles but achieving only tackiness, the Fontainebleau actually pulls it off!
sab
I want a t-shirt like that for Ohio.
Suzanne
Florida is such a large state. Does it not follow the same urban-rural divide that much of the rest of the country seems to follow? I get the impression that the unique demographic patterns there make the blue-dot pattern less salient.
Baud
I don’t have a clue what will work, but I’m encouraged by the energy.
kindness
I don’t live in Florida but want to help Democratic turnout at the polls. Lack of motivation has hurt Democrats in Florida since Obama ran. I can donate money and some time but need help as to where that should go. From afar I’m worried though. Here in California folks have been motivated to vote just on the face of what we’re up against. I don’t see that with Florida residents and I don’t understand why that seems to be the case.
Baud
We kind of have to improve things at both ends. A strategy has to have a receptive audience to work on. A cynical or contrarian population isn’t going to be persuaded by anything (at least not anything we would like).
Josie
I love the look on Fried’s face in that photo. She is taking no shit. I know that feeling.
Snarki, child of Loki
DeSantis as a “Bond villain”?
Just you wait until he realizes that the only way he’s going to break Disney’s hold on Reedy Creek is by killing off the British Royal Family.
THAT will get the involvement of Bond. James Bond, to go against his new nemesis BrownFinger. Action film? Documentary? Could be both!
nonrev321
Bay County Florida Dem here. I went to several local Bay County Dem meeting a few years ago. It was dominated by older women who seemed to be on the level of behaving more as a social gathering for them individually than as an effort to really confront the Republican party, win votes and expand the party in Bay county. One POC, one man (besides myself) and no younger persons attended.
If Fried is serious about reforming the Dem party in Florida and lighting a fire underneath them than its time to thank them for their past efforts (minimal as they are) and ask them to resign. She needs to clean out these county Dem Chairs and committees that have been there forever and bring in fresh blood. They know the buzz words, they talk like they want to win but at the county level they have forgotten how to win. They no longer know how to do it, just chat about it
Raoul Paste
I should know that reference of “let’s not bicker about who killed who“, but I don’t.
Anyone?
oldgold
Was this a shrewd political move?
“MIAMI BEACH — The speeches were done, the politicians were off the stage, but the night wasn’t over for Florida Democrats.
For the finale of the Florida Democratic Party’s annual Leadership Blue conference and fundraiser, Fried arranged for an appearance by drag queen Velvet Lenore, who performed several numbers along with her backup dancers.
The audience, Democratic activists and elected officials from throughout the state, erupted in applause. “
Now, although I have never attended a drag queen show, if people want to host them and people want to attend them – great. That expressed, I do not think this how you revitalize the moribund Florida Democratic Party.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: I don’t think we’re talking about tankies and contrarian assholes here — there was a huge drop in Dem turnout. Reversing it is Job #1.
@Suzanne: Repubs run Miami, which is the largest city. There is an urban-rural divide like everywhere else, but it’s more complicated here as you noted. I firmly believe it’s not a lost cause though!
HumboldtBlue
This is prescient.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I agree, we’re talking about normies here. But normies are subject to influences in the political zeitgeist, and we have to do our part to counter the elements that want to discourage turnout by our voters. That’s all I’m saying.
Bostondreams
@Raoul Paste: Monty Python and the Quest for the Holy Grail. Said after one of the knights of the round table slaughters a wedding party and is promptly forcefully engaged to the grieving bride to be and her ‘huge tracts of land’ by the gleeful future father in law who sees an opportunity to replace his wimpy and prone to break out in musical numbers son with a knight. And since the bride no longer has parents, well…
I used the film when I taught world history as my Middle Ages film :-)
Betty Cracker
@nonrev321: I hear you — my county party is more support group than political actor. But here’s a counterpoint: older women do a lot of the damn work, so it pays to be selective about whom you yeet.
The party chair in Hillsborough County, an older white lady, turned a loser party around, and now it’s a solid blue urban area, which is important, yes? So I would not recommend indiscriminate purges, but yeah, sack the dead wood!
Andrew Abshier
I worry about the demographics in my part of Florida. Sarasota and Manatee Counties are the fastest growing in the state, but we’re getting mostly older whites in the past few years. Last election, my former Congresscritter Vern Buchanan, who had been winning by 10 points or so, won by over 20. Granted, the FDP ran an even bigger retread than Chain Gang Charlie, but still. Since redistricting, I’m stuck with Greg “Bang-Bang” Steube, one of the biggest Trump-humpers in Congress, in a very safe R district. Lucky me. I swear the white retirees are going to be the death of us.
We need to start at local and state level. Local seats currently in the hands of crazy R’s and Moms for (so-called) Liberty founders are ripe for the picking, with good candidates. One advantage to Lege term limits is that we get an open seat every 6 years (House) or 12 (Senate); we need to be going after those. Hope Nikki has a plan for that.
Betty Cracker
@Andrew Abshier: I agree 100%!
MomSense
DeSantis gives me Dr. Evil vibes. His facial expressions are cartoonish. He’s an incredibly weird person.
Andrew Abshier
@Snarki, child of Loki: Yesh, it will be nesheshary to shend Jamesh Bond.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
First time I went to Philly me and my now wife stayed downtown at a Sheraton that still had it’s original mid-century decor – roughly the same era as the Fontainebleau. It was pretty cool. Worder if it’s still there in the same shape or been given a botched facelift that destroyed its historic charm.
trollhattan
@MomSense: He was the kid not invited to parties on account of being “that weird Ronny kid” and has been planning his revenge ever since.
We’re harvesting it.
UncleEbeneezer
I’m incredibly skeptical that a framing that highlights how Dems suck, is going to solve the problem of Florida. Organizing 101 is that you need to get people excited to join your coalition. Pinning all the blame of 2022 on the Dem Party/DNC is doing just the opposite of that. I hope Fried will be smart enough not to make “Dems lost” a central part of public messaging for 2024. I like that the focus is on Dem voter and young turnout, but I’d like to hear specifics on how she plans do that. It’s a really hard problem, especially in a state with heavy voter suppression, when the media was screaming endlessly about Crime and Inflation. We had a hard time with turnout here even in CA in 2022. I also think we need to be realistic about the fact that 2018 may have been a perfect storm scenario (like the Women’s March) that can’t be replicated. Using 2018 Dem turnout as a goal is fine but expecting that sort of turnout in other mid-terms and calling anything less a failure, is foolish, imo.
Suzanne
@Andrew Abshier: My uncle and aunt moved to Sarasota a few years ago. They are white retirees, both of them were incredibly successful public educators for their whole careers (they were both named Teacher of the Year in their respective states and met at their awards gala). Both very much on the side of political sanity. But they both report looking around at their community and being like WTF.
Citizen_X
“Luckily” (heh heh), global warming may end up killing the retire-to-the-south trend, as it makes every summer there increasingly deadly, especially for old folks.
trollhattan
How many hurricanes has that place survived? Looks well cared for.
Citizen_X
Now I want to spend a long weekend at the Fontainebleau.
trollhattan
@Citizen_X:
Suppose that’s true for the entire sunbelt, from Florida to Arizona. Midday summer is death, outside of air-conditioned caves.
Was looking at the Texas electricity grid and the generating capacity is nearly 3X what California has, for a fraction of the population. WTF?
Betty Cracker
@oldgold: I think FL Repubs’ persecution of the LGBTQ community is unpopular among reachable Floridians, and I like the show of solidarity.
@UncleEbeneezer: It’s a shame the linked article is behind a paywall (with no gift links for subscribers) — it answers some of the questions you raised. As for the messaging, my guess is it resonates for a lot of FL Democrats who are tired of losing.
Tim Curtin
What can an out of stater do?
Alison Rose
@Betty Cracker: Looks like 12-foot Ladder works, though it strips out all the formatting so it’s a bit wonky.
Sure Lurkalot
@trollhattan:
And many of those air conditioned caves are kept at 68 degrees such that a good deal of the population (mostly women) are about as miserable indoors as out, not to mention how such usage makes the planet warmer in a vicious circle of accommodating the silly human race.
H.E.Wolf
One small, concrete action to take, if anyone’s a postcard writer:http://PostcardsToVoters.org has a long-running postcard campaign to write to Democratic voters in FL who don’t yet use Vote By Mail, to encourage them to sign up.
They activate it whenever there’s a pause in other activity (right now, they’re concentrating all efforts on OH for an important Aug. 8 special election… this is a good one, too, if anyone’s got an hour or two to write a few postcards.)
They wrote to Dems in Duval County early in 2023, and thus may have helped to elect a Democratic mayor in Jacksonville – the FL city with the highest population, if Wikipedia is accurate on that point.
I check their address bot and their social media periodically, to see if the FL Vote By Mail campaign has postcard addresses. It’s a nice background project, and has a measurable effect (yes, with math and everything): people who vote by mail, vote more reliably in more elections.
Another Scott
Great post, thanks.
Yes, the first step in solving a problem is correctly diagnosing the problem. In this case, it seems pretty clear that not enough Democrats voted. We have to figure out why – in Florida and elsewhere.
How much of it is overt suppression of Democratic voters (which can be fought by injunctions in the courts); how much is rolling back of mail-in voting, extended voting days, etc., which were available during the Pandemic (which probably affect Democrats more than Republicans but might be more difficult to prove in court); how much is dis- and misinformation (which can be fought in court, but often takes years and then is too late); how much is poorly-matched candidates for the offices; etc.; I don’t know.
As always, there’s no One Weird Trick. But we have to work on things that actually matter (and not pie-in-the-sky things like trying to convert masses of MAGA lost causers).
Good luck to you and the good people of Florida. We need you to turn the ship around…
Cheers,
Scott.
John S.
FL Democrats are going to have a problem making inroads with a lot of the immigrants in the state (that actually vote) who now number roughly a quarter of the population.
Venezuelans, Colombians, and other South Americans have all flocked to Trump. The GOP has been running “oogie boogie” messaging in Spanish for years that has convinced huge swaths of these people that Democrats are the same as the leftist or socialist regimes they fled. This of course is especially ingrained in Cubans.
The only large group in Florida that gravitates to Democrats are Puerto Ricans, and their voter turnout numbers are not nearly as high.
Kent
My own parents moved from Salem OR into a retirement community in Canby OR which is exurban Portland (just outside the suburban fringe). And they report exactly the same thing. They look around and realize they are surrounded by old white FOX News MAGA die-hards and it’s almost like they have to have a secret handshake to identify the few other liberals in their midst.
So it’s not just Florida. It is old white people. And Florida has a LOT of them.
John S.
@Another Scott:
I applaud Betty and others who are willing to stay and fight. I couldn’t. After growing up and living in Florida for 40 years, it was time to go.
The state has just turned too toxic, overcrowded and ecologically unstable for me and family, and we hauled ass to WA last year (and couldn’t be happier).
Mike in NC
Again trying to run to the right of Fat Bastard, I just read that Ron DeDipshit is going to make every effort to execute every convict sitting on Death Row in Floriduh. It’s just what they do while at the same time working to outlaw abortion.
Alison Rose
@Mike in NC: Yeah, I love (as in, loathe) how the Venn Diagram of “anti-abortion” and “pro-death penalty” is often a perfect circle.
Ben Cisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
Betty, I appreciate this take:
My fraternity is 10 days out from an international conference in Tampa. I’ve always wanted to take part, and this one is being held closer to me than any in recent memory, but I just couldn’t do it.
Really pulling for things to get better for your state (and mine as well).
Ruckus
Betty
The Fontainebleau pulls it off because they understand what that entire concept is and is about. SFB can’t pull it of because he thinks it’s all about HIM. And it’s not/never is, especially him. The Fontainebleau pulls it off because they know it’s all about the paying customer. Every successful business is either in a business that a customer needs no matter how the business treats them, other than a hospital that can’t even cure an ingrown toe nail, or the business caters to the customer in such a manner that the customer is over joyed to over pay them. Like the Fontainebleau. SFB believes that the
customermark is for his benefit ONLY. That and he’s selling crap. His audience first doesn’t know they are marks and second don’t know what they are buying – him, is crap.Cowgirl in the Sandi
We lived in Sarasota for many years before we escaped to California. My brother in law who still lives there tells me that he often talks to new arrivals about the various horrors DeSantis is advocating and they listen and after agreeing with all he says, they say – yeah, that sounds bad but well, I always vote Republican.
Betty Cracker
@Tim Curtin: H.E. Wolf’s suggestion at #32 is a good one! Beyond that, I urge folks in blue states not to forget that there are tens of millions of good people in red states who did not sign up for this shit and are trying to change things. They need encouragement, and crapping all over their states and/or questioning their reasons for staying isn’t helpful. (No one in this thread has done that, but I see it a lot.)
Brachiator
Very interesting info about Florida politics. Thanks.
Goldfinger trivia. There was filming in Miami, but except for the character who plays Felix Leiter, none of the other cast members set a foot in Florida. They recreated the hotel at Pinewood Studios in England.
Tim Curtin
@Betty Cracker: Getting crapped on is omnidirectional, of course, but kindness is certainly always the best policy.
Shalimar
@nonrev321: You make a good point about attendance at county party events, but i don’t think purging anyone is the answer. The first step is to figure out ways to get a lot of younger Dems involved.
nonrev
@oldgold: No it wasn’t. Not if they want to start winning again in a red state. It was theater
Geminid
In the silver lining department, Florida Dems are building their bench, with 3 fairly young U.S. Representatives added since 2020. Sheila Cherfilius-McCormick (44) won a special election to fill the late Alcee Hastings’ seat and won again last year. Jared Moscowitz (43) won the 23rd CD last year, and Maxwell Frost (26) took over Val Demings’ 10th CD seat. Frost has the distinction if beating a former Congressman in his primary. That would be the charming Alan Grayson.
There is also former Representative Stephanie Murphy, who is 42 years old. She retired last year, possibly anticipating the Republican gerrymander that made her district unwinnable. I don’t think Murphy is done with politics, though
Sister Golden Bear
@trollhattan:
California made a concerted energy conservation effort — both directly and indirectly. E.g. when I had to replace the roof I got a tax credit for using a sufficiently light color for the replacement roof, which helps keep the house cooler. (BTW, TX requires dark roofs.)
The power companies have pushed energy conservation as well, because they are allowed higher rates by the state as long as total consumption says within certain limits — which is cheaper for them than building new power plants.
As a result CA electrical rates are high (the stick part of energy conservation), but electrical usage per household is much less than other parts of the country.
TX took the opposite approach, discouraging energy conservation — and the higher production just coincidentally benefits the owner of power plants, which mostly run on oil and gas.
Taken4Granite
@Sure Lurkalot:
If not cooler. True story: I once stayed at a hotel in Chattanooga, TN, that insisted on setting the air conditioning to 60 degrees. I would set it to a more reasonable level (68 degrees, if I could) at night, and during the day the hotel staff would put it back to 60.
For comparison: in New Hampshire, where I live, it is actually illegal for a landlord to set the climate control system that low. If the landlord sets your indoor temperature to anything less than 65 degrees during heating season (October through April), that is legal grounds for rent withholding.
kindness
@Sister Golden Bear: California might rate lower on building up energy capacity as well because we don’t have a population boom. We’ve lost population, which I’m fine with honestly. One thing I do see a lot of here in the Central Valley is parking lots getting covered by overhangs with solar power generation on them. It’s a twofer. Shades the cars underneath and generates power without taking out new land to do it on.
Jackie
@H.E.Wolf: Voting by mail in FL is turning into a PITA – thanks to Gov Pudd’n Boots.
Floridians who VBM are now required to re-register prior to EVERY voting cycle. It had been changed a few years back to re-registering every two years per same Gov, but he decided that wasn’t inconvenient enough to discourage VBM voters. I wonder if verbiage explaining this is included on the postcards?
“Florida’s voting laws now require voters who wish to request a vote-by-mail ballot to do so after every election cycle. The new law requires that every voter who requested a vote-by-mail ballot before November 8, 2022 must do so again if they wish to receive their mail ballots for 2023 municipal elections, primaries and the 2024 general election.”
https://allvotingislocal.org/how-to-vote-by-mail-in-florida/
Josie
@Sister Golden Bear:
This is a small thing, but it might be helpful if, instead of saying “Texas did this or that, one could write “Republicans in Texas did this or that.” Same for Florida and other red states–not “Florida” but “Republicans in Florida” when speaking of these fascist policies.
FelonyGovt
Open thread? The Los Angeles Times has just gutted its sports coverage and my husband is irate. I’m not happy either. I think it’s important to support good journalism but we’e paying more and more for less and less.
So- I think it’s time to let the dead tree version go, and go digital only. How hard will that be? Remember I’m almost 70 and have been reading paper newspapers since I was a tyke.
BeautifulPlumage
@Josie: I like that very much. I’m going to start using that to keep myself out of the red state/blue state trap. It also works to give the right party credit: the Democrats in WA state protect woman’s rights.
I also need to keep that in mind for cities & regions.
Betty Cracker
@Josie: Excellent suggestion! I will try to follow that model going forward!
@FelonyGovt: I love the portability of digital newspaper subscriptions.
Geminid
@trollhattan: One factor worth considering here is that California imports a lot of electricity from out of state, 30% of its usage in 2021. This included hydroelectric power from the Pacific Northwest as well as electricity from nuclear, coal and natural gas generation in the desert Southwest including Mexico.
Ruckus
@Kent:
So it’s not just Florida. It is old white people. And Florida has a LOT of them.
As an old white person, I agree with this. White people in this country have had a position for the entire life of this country that people of other shades of skin color have NOT. In some parts of this country that position is not AS strong or as prevalent. But it IS there. It’s changing, but very slowly. The old white farts who buy into that crap have to die off or grow the hell up to lose that, and if they’ve bought into it, they are invested. Maybe not heavily invested, or even consciously invested, but they are invested. It’s a part of them. One has to be conscious and aware of this to get uninvested. That’s humanity, we invest in things that we at least think keep us alive and better able to survive. Even if that investment is bullshit. Like this one. But this modern world is different than the old world, there it was individuals who survived. Now it is populations that survive. Together. Working, fighting, being stupid or smart. But smarter is better.
cain
@Betty Cracker: this is true everywhere – in Oregon in the cities that do the GOTV – they are out there and tirelessly knocking on doors and trying to do good. They ain’t playing around either.
cain
While it is a political stunt – it is also an act of defiance. Given all the messaging around drag – it’s considered a sign of where the Democratic party stands and that’s with LBGTQ+. A certain amount of symbolic fuck you is required and yes it does attract the young IMHO.
Omnes Omnibus
@cain: Having a political organization make a political statement through an artistic choice is not anything new.
cain
@John S.: I think it’s going to be important to counter the messaging by GOP that it is all socialism. The socialism bit is the trigger for a lot of these immigrants that have been burned by authoritarian left governments.
I have no idea what makes any of those countries left but it’s definitely a left over from the colonial days.
cain
@Omnes Omnibus: nope – but I was responding to oldgold’s objection to it. I think it’s a valid tool.
Omnes Omnibus
@cain: I was agreeing and amplifying your point.
cain
@Cowgirl in the Sandi:
Spoken like a true Republican, it’s bad for OTHER people, but they can’t see it affecting them. Until it hits them directly and personally they aren’t going to give a shit because of FYIGM.
rikyrah
She broke it down like a fraction of how it’s about to go sideways for ⚪⚪ women in the South.
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8dSphXk/
raven
At the 72 convention in Miami a group of my friends from C-U went down to protest. the war. One of my pals was worried that they were going to target VVAW guys (they actually did with the Gainesville 8) so he talked me into going to Jamaica instead. I was in Negril but listening to the news reports and, finally, couldn’t take it anymore and flew to Miami. I got a ride from the Airport to Miami Beach and somehow ended up across the street from the Fontainebleau just as they were hauling Ginsberg and a group off to the pokey. I was (stupidly) by myself with hair down to my ass carrying my rucksack. I walked all the way to Flamingo Park but, by the time I got there, my posse had broken camp and I spent the last night of the convention in the streets while to cops and the zippies engaged in hand-to-hand!
cain
@Ruckus: They have “institutional memory” so to speak – so knew what it was like before the immigrants showed up. So they cling to that. As humans, we tend to get really stuck on following what happened before and following that. Kind of like migratory birds – we just keep wanting to do the same thing and that is continuing with white culture – they don’t trust the ‘new version of society’. Sucks to be them.
MomSense
I’m not sure what to do about FL. It’s a long term project. In 2016 we lost the White House by about 70K EV while winning the popular vote by 3 million. In 2020 we won the White House by about 45K and the popular vote by 8 million. 2024 is going to be in the same range and it’s way too fucking close.
We don’t have the resources the GOP has so we have to choose carefully where we spend our money. I don’t think it’s Florida. This whole situation sucks.
Ruckus
@FelonyGovt:
I was born and raised and live in SoCal a rather long time ago and dropped print editions a long time ago. First it’s a waste of paper, the same exact story is online. Second, the stories are mostly a waste of time because it’s no longer the current news, that’s on TV. It’s yesterdays news. And yes I was a paperboy here in SoCal when I was a boy. I made more than my allowance, which stopped when I started as a paperboy. Third, the writing is often, well, third rate. At best. IOW it just isn’t worth the cost, in paper, in money, in effort
Think about what we are doing here. This is letters to the editor. Except that we get to actually have a conversation. And no one edits/decides not to print, our ideas. This that we are doing is a bizillion times better than letters to the editor.
cain
@Ruckus: my cousin just bought a place in Tampa – they are sick of the Chicago cold weather – and so they want to move to Florida eventually. So I guess we’ll see old indian people going there as well. (well, my cousin is younger than me by a 2 years) He’s probably a year older than Cole.
mrmoshpotato
@rikyrah: That’s a great breakdown of how Trump trash white women in the South fucked over everyone – themselves included.
Matt McIrvin
How much of the drop was from people who were literally afraid to vote? I recall a lot of talk in the runup to the election about how it was simply no longer safe for POC to vote there; the risk of being arrested at the polls for some bullshit or other was too great.
Dirk Reinecke
@Snarki, child of Loki: I think you meant Puddingfinger
mrmoshpotato
@Dirk Reinecke: Wasn’t it chocolate pudding?
trollhattan
@Geminid:
ATM California is exporting 6GW, per CAISO. Our demand is 20GW and Texas is consuming 66GW.
You’ll see us importing commonly during heatwaves, and at night when solar is offline. They to some extent break down imports by source, coal included, which occupies a pie slice when present, never more than a few percent.
https://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/Pages/supply.html
We, of course, aren’t morons like the ERCOT portion of Texas who intentionally isolate themselves from other states and are not interconnected.
Texas #s are interesting in having large solar and especially wind capacity but those are offset by coal and dwarfed by natural gas.
Current Generation
Summer Capacity
Maximum Capacity
Solar
11,681 MW(17.9%)
12,636 MW
20,809 MW
Wind
6,915 MW(10.6%)
10,427 MW
38,695 MW
Hydro
24 MW(0.0%)
478 MW
600 MW
Power Storage
22 MW(0.0%)
447 MW
4,592 MW
Other
100 MW(0.2%)
163 MW
113 MW
Natural Gas
31,661 MW(48.5%)
53,446 MW
69,890 MW
Coal and Lignite
9,896 MW(15.2%)
13,568 MW
14,321 MW
Nuclear
4,972 MW(7.6%)
4,973 MW
5,448 MW
https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards
Brachiator
@FelonyGovt:
How have they gutted sports coverage? I read the Times, but I am not big on sports.
I noted in a previous thread that the Times has cut staff and have had voluntary layoffs. They tried to maintain the same level of journalism, but if the impact of cuts is now obvious to readers, they have a bigger problem on their hands.
I don’t know. Do you read books on a Kindle? You could give it a try and go back to the physical paper if that’s what you prefer. I think that the physical paper may be going away soon.
I don’t know if it makes a difference if you are using a tablet, phone or computer monitor.
Cameron
I’m really curious as to how Nikki Fried is going to shake things up. Tomorrow evening I’ll enjoy a Run For Something online session. Apparently I fit their target audience of Youngs who are curious about pursuing local offices, although at age 72 I think my shelf life is expiring. If it sounds cool, I’ll contact the Manatee County Democrats and suggest that I be their candidate for some office nobody wants to run for. WTF – it’s not like Dems are going to win doodly squat here anyway. If I can help Republicans waste some time and money, it’ll be worthwhile.
Anonymous At Work
I voted Fried in the primary because Crist had no energy and was clearly picked as teh candidate least objectionable to everyone. “Soup so bland, it’s water.”
And yes, Miami is run by Republicans because the Cuban and South American refugees fleeing strong-man socialist countries prefer the “strong-man” to the “socialist”. I don’t know if they realize that their expedited or exempted immigration status is tied to their voting pattern only, though. “Chickens for Colonel Sanders” energy at times.
H.E.Wolf
Thanks for bringing that up – it’s a good point.
PostcardsToVoters.org has a policy of avoiding anger- or fear-inducing verbiage; and they limit their postcard requirements to 3 pre-approved sentences (with a bunch of pre-approved optional extras) – so yes, they omit that information on the FL Vote By Mail postcards.
However, they do include that information in the detailed material that is provided to every writer, with every batch of addresses – along with data-driven assurance that small improvements are *real* improvements, and make a measurable difference.
PostcardsToVoters.org is a group that is in it for the long haul, not just “the next election and done”. I like that about them! :) Their partner in the FL Vote By Mail sign-up project is the FL Democratic Party, so the Dems must see some value in this.
Major Major Major Major
Well, heck, couldn’t hurt to try somebody new, yeah.
Cameron
@mrmoshpotato: I don’t think you can specify the type of pudding. You might make Florida’s vanilla schoolchildren feel bad about themselves. And where would that lead? Flaunting the gender reassignment of sugar -coated candy? The horrors will not cease until Florida’s Angry Aphid triumphantly marches his white boots onto a stage for his Presidential inauguration.
Ruckus
@cain:
And there are people who just are assholes. We all have seen them/met them. They hate anyone who is not them. Because they are the number one human in the universe. Just ask them. Oh wait you don’t have to ask, they will tell you, even if you don’t want to know. Because how else would you be able to know they were #1 if they didn’t?
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
On an amusing note, birdsite continues to amaze with all of the most important free speech…..
https://www.threads.net/t/CudxMxxuym5/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
H.E.Wolf
@H.E.Wolf:
ETA: I just checked the verbiage from the FL postcard batches as of April 2023. Happy to report that the 3 sentences explicitly stated that VBM was good through the end of 2024, as stated in your excellent link.
My guess is that starting in early 2025, the verbiage will be updated to “…through 2026”.
The postcards are really fun to write, too, especially if you enjoy geography trivia. I’m still happy about the time I got an address in FL for the Possum Capital of the World. :-)
Betty Cracker
@H.E.Wolf: Huh. Seems like informing folks that requests for mail-in ballots now expire would be helpful!
ETA: Never mind — just saw your update. I write postcards too but I guess they don’t let people write for their own states!
FelonyGovt
@Brachiator: Thanks. They announced this morning that Sports coverage will be going to a “magazine” format. That seems to mean, in the summer, lots of articles about the Dodgers (especially) and the Angels, none at all about other teams, Major League Baseball in general, and probably nothing about any other sports.
I do read books on Kindle on my iPad, and already use the digital portion of my subscription when I’m away, on my desktop computer, etc. so maybe it wouldn’t be a big change.
Urban Suburbanite
From what I’ve read, the Venezuelans who settled in Florida have reached a level of batshit insane the Cuban influx never dreamed of – that idiotic mercenary operation came out of meetings in Miami. They’re insanely right wing, politically active, and have resources- which is great for Puddingfuhrer. Except that as others have pointed out, he managed to fuck that up by tightening immigration laws in a state heavily dependent on migrant labor, and people are bailing in mass numbers.
I know Florida has become the promised land of angry old white people, but it seems like Idaho (ESPECIALLY Couer d’Alene) has become the Pacific Northwest’s equivalent. I don’t know if enough angry old white people (also the fascists moving to Idaho) have left neighboring states to effect politics and voting there, but it’s definitely shaping Idaho politics, and not in a good way.
FelonyGovt
@Urban Suburbanite: Yes, I’ve known a few people over the years who have moved from California to Idaho, and they’ve been, without exception, angry white right-wing nuts.
raven
@Urban Suburbanite:
I had a garden but my flowers died
There ain’t much living here inside
And lately, I don’t know what I’m holding on to
But I’ll never make it up to Couer d’Alene
There ain’t no chance of me forgetting my name
And easy’s gettin’ harder every days i love
twbrandt
While the FL Dems try to find a way forward, the Michigan GOP continues to beclown themselves.
Betty Cracker
@twbrandt: Pure gold! Thanks for sharing that link. 😂🍿🤡
H.E.Wolf
@Betty Cracker: “ETA: Never mind — just saw your update”
By the time I looked at the actual facts, it was too late to edit/delete my initial comment. I am nothing if not slow. :)
Martin
Watching the local dynamics here in CA. The local inroads that the GOP made in those red/purple districts are starting to blow back. There are recalls around the state for these officials that got into office opposing mask mandates and then quickly pivoted to book banning and screaming about groomers and CA republicans aren’t about all that.
Not sure this will have immediate effect on house races, but it does throw a bit of a wrench into the recruitment system for those offices down the road.
Also curious what’s going to happen with Saddleback’s eviction from the SBC, whether that will cause the church to moderate in some regards, because it seems pretty clear they aren’t going to comply, and so they’re free to drift from the SBC articles – which are not particularly popular here, even among the folks I know who attend Saddleback.
trollhattan
Goodie!
You had ONE job….
cain
@Urban Suburbanite: It’ll be the next migration path for angry white right wingers. They are building a conservative utopia there or so they think. I’m all for it. A honeypot – it’ll be a great experiment that will go to shit just like Kansas did. But you know, they’ll still blame anybody not them.
cain
@Ruckus: Agreed. For some it’s just being pernicious all the way through.
cain
@Anonymous At Work: Sounds like how Russians are as well. See Israel.
twbrandt
@Martin: I’m PCUSA, pretty much on the opposite end of the theological spectrum from the SBC, so it’s been
gratifyinginteresting to see the SBC deliberately shrinking it’s denomination.Another Scott
Meanwhile, many of you may be able to see the Northern Lights on Thursday… Phys.org:
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@MomSense: they got all the billionaires on their side. But money doesn’t solve everything – top down strong man doesn’t work. They are already dead man walking – they just don’t know it yet.
I think once we finally control the political apparatus those billionaires are going to sell off their media empires. I based this on nothing but sniffing helium balloons :-)
Anyway
Do Venezuelan immigrants get the same expedited status as Cuban immigrants ?
Jackie
Good news: Looks like the SCOTUS is helping to GOTV for the youth!
Washington Post: “For many voters under 35 years of age, especially those on the left, the Supreme Court has become a political issue in the same way that climate change, gun violence and immigration have over the course of the past two decades, some political scientists and organizers have said.”
“Conversations with more than a dozen young voters from around the country who recently visited Washington for the Fourth of July suggest a sense of frustration, even resignation for some, but also a renewed understanding that their votes could impact which justices sit on the federal bench.”
Betty Cracker
@Anyway: Nope.
@Jackie: Excellent news!
Martin
@cain: Somewhat obligatory.
MrKite
@Another Scott: Perhaps something can be learned from the difference in Democratic voter turnout when Andrew Gillum, a black man and successful mayor, was nominated as compared to when Mr. Crist, an affable, previously failed nominee and former Republican, won the primary.
laura
I worked for an IUOE local and was tasked with staying at the Fountainebleu twice for winter conference and general assemblies and Holy Toledo- it is “all that” and more. The first time was the week between the pro bowl and the super bowl- the Who was slated to play and watching the yachts and mega super yachts motor up the inland waterway was staggering. Chad Ochocinco drove up in a ludicrously huge monster truck, and even with rain for part of most days, it was just really luxurious and idyllic and wealth that I’d never been exposed to. If I went out on the balcony and craned my neck, I could see the Atlantic Ocean- and I did look once, but my particular room was right next to a knocking shop, so when I did go out and crane my neck, not only did I see the ocean, but also a commercial sex act that appeared to be pricey, risky and unlikely practiced at home before this conventioneer partook. Heady days…. I brought home a big ole greasy bag of empanadas, both sweet and savory, and we demolished them as soon as I got back. Fond memories to be sure.
Betty Cracker
@MrKite: Crist ran a spirited campaign in 2022, but he was and is, well, Crist.
Betty Cracker
@laura: LMAO! I love that!
tobie
I’m not sure why Dems got thrashed in 2020 and again in 2022 in Florida but I think it has to do with a lot more than Charlie Christ’s campaign. Val Demings lost too. My sense from repeated visits to the state (and even to Sarasota and Manatee County Dem Club events) is that FL like OH has gotten a lot more conservative. I’d love to see stats on church attendance and the like. Voter suppression efforts have made things worse. It’s going to be tough to claim back territory. I wish Fried luck in what will be an uphill battle.
Martin
@MrKite: Yeah, I mean, Crist is the kind of candidate that even his fiancee isn’t excited to get out of bed to vote for.
tobie
@MrKite: Val Demings was the Dem candidate for Senate in 2022 and she didn’t turn out the vote either. I’m not sure why we blame Christ alone. Maybe we shouldn’t be playing the blame game.
rikyrah
“You were the chosen one.”
The heartbreak in Obi-Wan’s voice.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8dAu277/
cain
@MrKite:
They need to put a Democratic Cuban or Puerto Rican up there and see how that changes things.
Definitely we should be recruiting from those communities heavily.
cain
@Martin:
They are busy trying to annex parts of Oregon into Idaho which isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Those congressional districts would lose a lot of tax dollars as you well know. If they think it is dead end now, it’ll get a lot worse.
pieceofpeace
@Another Scott: Yes! Thanks….
MrKite
@tobie: True enough. Still, although gerrymandering and voter suppression by Republicans in power has made the hill steeper, understanding why voters are excited enough to turn out for one politician and not another is critical. I’m in Seattle, so I have no real insight into FL Democratic Party travails, but one observation seems universal: Turning out your voters is everything.
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott: There was an aurora that put on a pretty good light show in Mammoth Lakes a few months ago. I think in February one was visible in Death Valley, but low to the horizon(I think it may have caused the red northern horizon in my Winter MW pano).
Geminid
Both of VIrginia’s legislative houses are up.for election this November. This will be the first under new maps since 2011. I ran into a May 17 article in Virginia Mercury about the new districts titled “Though critiques persist, many agree that Virginia’s new political maps are ‘quite balanced.’ ”
There’s a lot of back and forth about the redistricting process, but the result was a new map that looks neutral, with a probable Democratic advantage in the election:
pieceofpeace
@John S.: Where in WA? I grew up in ID, went to WA college, worked in Portland, and in SF Peninsula for 50 years.
The pangs for the PNW keep nudging me to return and now I think I’m nearly ready. Love CA, but it’s terribly expensive and way too crowded these days. Might check out small towns in CA, but many are in red country, and I’m too old to feel angry that often. Someone from the 60s still! looking for peace, so giving it a chance… Heh.
MrKite
@cain: I’d think that would make sense, although the strong anti- communist sentiment among older immigrants may make it hard for Dem nominees. Clearly, there are also a lot of younger voters that we fail to motivate to consistently vote as well. I assume there is a significant Black population in Florida, although they aren’t talked about much here with regard to involvement in the Democratic Party infrastructure. I wonder if some of the success of Black mayoral candidates might derive from people being excited to vote for someone that looks like them. Doesn’t explain Val Demings lack of success, though, so (shrug).
Geminid
@Geminid: Regardless if who controls the two Virginia General Assembly houses after November (I think the Democrats will), there will be a lot of new members next year, and some long-serving members gone. Writing for Bearing Drift, former Republican Delegate Chris Saxman say that between retirements and primary losses, 39 legislators with a total 629 years of tenure will not return. That includes 16 Senators with a combined 380 years experience.
MrKite
@Geminid: That sounds like very good news! Thanks for the uplifting post.
tobie
@MrKite: agree in principle but I still think one needs to understand the dynamics in the state. I will see how many voted for Ag Sec in 2018 when Gillum and Nelson were on the ballot and it was the last time races were competitive for Dems in the state. My suspicion is that more Dems voted the full ballot than GOPers and that is the reason Fried won.
Geminid
@MrKite: My sense is that Democrats here are more motivated than Republicans. We shall see in four months if this is so.
These elections will definitely attract a lot of national attention and out of state money, in part because of the question of abortion rights. Virginia is the southernmost state in the East where abortions are safe and legal. Bristol, in southwest Virginia, will be the closest venue for a safe abortion for residents of parts or all of 5 different states.
Ruckus
@Andrew Abshier:
white retirees are going to be the death of us.
We aren’t all assholes – all the time…..
Living in a complex that the minimum age to rent is 55 and ranges to late 90s, most people are retired, and as there is an income limit, most of us were working folks – I was when I moved here. Mainly because I could walk to work and I used to have to drive 19 miles.
But I also get what you are talking about because in many places being a white retiree means one has more time to discover or practice their inner assholeishness. And if they made enough money to retire in reasonable style, it might mean that they really don’t need the practice.
Gvg
@Matt McIrvin: it wasn’t all Poc, it was specific groups with felonies who were being falsely challenged on the right to vote. This could get expensive and cost them a job.
And we know the system catches and convicts more POC than white people for the same offenses.
Then there were false accusations of non citizenship to anyone who didn’t look right to the self appointed poll watchers….they might be legal but it didn’t mean every family member or household member was (analysts explained) so some of them didn’t want attention.
We have to protect the polls. Its hard when the authorities are corrupt. Maybe it will be better with Bidens justice department instead of Trump?
Gvg
@MrKite: Crist was.previously a long time Florida legislator and the Governor. He refused to become as extreme as the gop was becoming and eventually left the party. He failed because the Democrats are a mess here. Gillum has gone to jail and there were rumors when he ran though i hadn’t heard them. I liked his primary opponent slightly better because i thought she had a better chance in the general but it wasn’t a strong preference. I don’t think either were great candidates. Neither was Crist nor imo nikki fried. Like i said dems here are a weak mess. Voters don’t necessarily love the Gop but they ignore Democrats.
Chris T.
@trollhattan:
The “what” part of the WTF is two things:
1. Efficiency. CA homes are built to efficiency standards that are about 3x those of TX.
2. Location. CA population is quite concentrated in the cooler parts (along the coast) so the per-person weighted average temperature is a bit lower than in TX in the summer.
Item 1 is the more significant one, though.
Chris T.
@pieceofpeace: We (Spousal Unit and I) retired to Bellingham, which is pretty hippie as these things go. It’s a bit isolated unless you go up to Canada or down to Seattle, and the surrounding rural areas can be kind of Trumpy, but overall we mostly like it.
I miss the food from the Oakland area though…