(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We value every life, remember history and defend freedom together – address by the President of Ukraine
9 July 2023 – 17:04
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I am in Lutsk with the team.
In the morning I met with Mr. President of Poland Duda. A conversation with him. A prayer service. There were representatives of all denominations and religious communities… In the Lutsk church. Together with Andrzej, we honored the memory of all the victims in Volyn. We value every life, remember history, and defend freedom together.
Here in Lutsk, in Lubart’s castle, I held a long meeting today on the situation in the region – security, the situation on the border, the situation in the border areas of neighboring Belarus… The priority is to reinforce each region, our entire northern border. There were reports from the military, law enforcers, and local authorities. We analyzed the training and supply of our Defense and Security Forces and relevant units in Volyn. There was a report on the social situation in the region, the needs of people. Energy, water supply, budgetary support – both for people and for the social sphere. The state of the shelters. Jobs in the region. The state supports and will continue to support as much as possible. And I am grateful to everyone here in Lutsk, to everyone in other cities and communities of the region where IDPs have been accommodated, where people help in the treatment and rehabilitation of our warriors… Thank you!
The frontline, our active actions.
This week we have a lot to be grateful for to the warriors of our 3rd separate assault brigade, the 24th separate mechanized brigade, the paratroopers of the “Eightieth”… Well done, warriors!
In the Tavria direction, as always, the paratroopers of the “Seventy-Ninth”, the artillerymen of the 55th separate brigade “Zaporizhzhia Sich”, the 74th separate reconnaissance battalion and the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade distinguished themselves with power, courage and accuracy… I want to thank you!
I would like to mention a warrior of the Zaporizhzhia Sich brigade, Major Volodymyr Honcharov. Thank you, Volodymyr! Sailor Serhiy Komar – 35th separate marine brigade – thank you, Serhiy! Soldier Oleksiy Labenets, a rifleman of the security battalion of the 15th transport aviation brigade. Thank you, Oleksiy! Artillerymen of the “Magura”, the 47th separate mechanized brigade – Major Anton
Cherevko and Senior Lieutenant Vasyl Abramiv. Thank you, guys!
Thank you to everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone in the world who helps!
Thank you, Lutsk, for this day!
Glory to Ukraine!
The war is to be over with justice and peace and with us regaining our territorial integrity. Why? Because the end of the hot stage of the war and freezing the conflict would not mean the end of the war.
Why is it still not obvious to everyone? pic.twitter.com/yKsrJiAuoE
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 9, 2023
President Biden sat down for an interview with documented plagiarist and fabulist Fareed Zakaria of CNN ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius. In regard to documented plagiarist and fabulist Fareed Zakaria’s question regarding NATO membership for Ukraine, it would have been better to have said we’re in the middle of very delicate and important negotiations with our allies and partners including Ukraine, I’m not going to make those discussions public, but I will say we are committed to Ukraine’s liberation and safety. Instead we got this:
EXCLUSIVE: Biden says Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying the war with Russia must end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks. https://t.co/iNx84Zc7r4 pic.twitter.com/z0Ejf6SZlU
— CNN (@CNN) July 9, 2023
From The Financial Times:
The US and Germany are under intense pressure from other allies to show greater support for Ukraine’s eventual membership of Nato, just days before the military alliance’s leaders meet in Lithuania.
Washington and Berlin have backed a form of words for the summit’s concluding statement that does not fully endorse a “pathway” to Nato membership, let alone invite Kyiv to join once the war is over — as demanded by Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in eastern Europe.
Other members of the alliance were caught off-guard by the “conservative” US and German stance, officials briefed on the talks told the Financial Times.
On Sunday US president Joe Biden doused Kyiv’s hopes of a breakthrough on membership, saying he did not think Ukraine was ready.
“I think we have to lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to get into Nato,” Biden told CNN. It was “premature” to “call for a vote . . . now”, he added “because there’s other qualifications that need to be met, including democratisation and some of those issues”.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is invited to the summit, which will take place in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday. He has threatened not to attend if Nato does not signal concrete progress from a 2008 statement that merely said Ukraine “would become” a member.
Zelenskyy told ABC on Sunday: “It’s all a matter of political will just to find the proper wording and invite Ukraine.”
The differences threaten to overshadow progress on separate long-term security assurances for Kyiv. The UK, France, Germany, the US and other allies are aiming to announce a broad agreement at the summit, two officials briefed on the plans told the FT.
The proposal would create a multilateral framework under which countries could set up bilateral pledges of military and financial support. However, it could be delayed until after the summit, they added.
Negotiations on Sunday among Nato ambassadors failed to reach a compromise on the text of the leaders’ statement, officials said, adding that it was likely the leaders themselves would finalise it at the summit.
“[The majority] wants to have this notion of a political decision in the communique,” said one person briefed on the negotiations. “The others worry about automaticity.”
Those pushing for a clear pathway for Kyiv’s membership argue that anything less would imply Nato was ignoring Ukraine’s pleas for postwar protection under the alliance’s Article 5 mutual-defence clause, and would help Russian leader Vladimir Putin achieve one of his stated goals of the invasion: to block the country’s entry to the alliance.
But opponents, led by Germany and the US, say Nato cannot agree to anything that appears to suggest Ukraine is on an inevitable path to membership without first meeting rigorous standards on governance, military standards and weaponry, and that the alliance cannot commit to anything without knowing how the war will end, or when.
“Holding Nato together is really critical,” Biden told CNN. “I don’t think there is unanimity in Nato about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the Nato family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.”
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Sunday travelling with the president en route to London that Ukraine’s Nato allies will discuss “where we go from here” with respect to reforms required of Kyiv to eventually join the alliance.
“There’s work being done on the Nato communique, on the language relative to Ukraine’s desire to seek membership in Nato. I think we will see the allies come to consensus on that as we head into Vilnius and it will among other things talk about a process for continuing to work through those reforms,” he said.
All this does is further encourage Putin in his genocidal quest to take Ukraine. It functionally cedes control over the decision making regarding who gets to join NATO to Putin. As we’ve seen in 2008 and 2014 was that he was able to basically set conditions fifteen and nine years in advance to prevent states from being considered for NATO admission by creating contested borders with and frozen conflicts inside Georgia and Ukraine by invading under cover of protecting ethnic Russian communities in both countries. Before anyone starts, I am well aware that Ukraine has a lot of post-war work to do to meet all the other necessary standards. Georgia is even farther behind. But parts of the reason they are both where they are politically, economically, and socially is because Putin was able to exercise control over their politics, government, governance, economics, political economy, and society by scarfing pieces up. You cannot honestly tell me with a straight face that Hungary, Turkey, or even Poland are really in full compliance with all the political, economic, and social reforms that are being cited as the reasons for why it is premature to formally announce that Ukraine will join NATO and delineate an exception to policy process to do so.
The same mistakes, which empower and encourage Putin and demoralize our allies and partners, and more importantly the Ukrainians, keep being repeated over and over and over again.
Here’s some reactions from within Ukraine. First from Olena Halushka, a board member of the Anti-Corruption Action Center and co-founder of the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory:
10 reasons Ukraine should get an invitation to NATO in Vilnius:
1) russia is provoked by weakness, not strength. Time for NATO to act firmly;
2) ending of the gray zones policies which failed to ensure sustainable peace in Europe;
3) ending of actual russian veto over NATO… pic.twitter.com/FzZgCUL3wK— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) July 9, 2023
Here’s the full text of her tweet:
10 reasons Ukraine should get an invitation to NATO in Vilnius:
1) russia is provoked by weakness, not strength. Time for NATO to act firmly;
2) ending of the gray zones policies which failed to ensure sustainable peace in Europe;
3) ending of actual russian veto over NATO enlargement, incl via waging wars/occupying parts of other states;
4) Ukraine’s resistance is effectively protecting NATO’s eastern flank and prevents russia from attacking other states;
5) practically, the invitation isn’t changing much for NATO, it *doesn’t trigger article 5*, while gives Ukraine many practical tools, incl for security and defence reforms advocacy;
6) Ukraine’s interoperability with NATO advanced significantly over the last year. Moreover, Ukraine tests modern NATO weapons in action;
7) a message to encourage Ukraine’s defenders amidst the ongoing difficult counteroffensive;
8) a message to millions of refugees to plan their lives long-term in Ukraine;
9) a message to Western businesses who consider investing in Ukraine’s recovery to get prepared;
10) clear statement that Ukraine’s NATO membership won’t be a bargaining chip w terrorist putin.
Feel free to add more in the replies
#UkraineNATOnow
Alyona Getmanchuk, the Director of the New Europe Center in Kyiv, has published this response via op-ed at The New York Times: (emphasis mine)
KYIV, Ukraine — For decades, discussions about whether or not Ukraine should be admitted to NATO have revolved around the risks — to both Ukraine and member nations — of Ukraine being in the alliance. And at the core of those risks had been one overriding fear: that Ukraine’s membership might push President Vladimir Putin of Russia into a corner, prompting him to escalate his war.
The question of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership has been revived once again as the bloc’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, approaches this week, and Ukraine has stated its ambition to the leaders gathering there to be granted a political invitation to join.
To be clear, Ukraine is not asking for immediate NATO membership. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky now acknowledges that it should join after the war ends, and doesn’t want to drag NATO members into its war with Russia by invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. What Ukraine wants is a political invitation that will end the so-called “strategic ambiguity” at play since the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, where the alliance decided Ukraine should eventually become a member but offered no clear path for it to do so. By giving Ukraine a destination but no itinerary, NATO left the nation uniquely vulnerable and ultimately opened the door for Mr. Putin’s invasions.
Now, as in previous years, the hand-wringing over the attendant risks of inviting Ukraine into NATO has cropped up again. And again, it is focused on the danger of further provoking Mr. Putin.
But for the 78 percent of Ukrainians who have close relatives or friends who have been killed or wounded in Mr. Putin’s war, and for those who suffer from continuous Russian missile and drone strikes, this argument sounds ridiculous.
And any thought of keeping Ukraine out of NATO to forestall further Russian aggression makes no sense. Mr. Putin threatened to dip into his nuclear arsenal long before Ukraine requested a political invitation at Vilnius, and he will continue to do so regardless of whatever decision is made there. Perhaps more to the point, nobody is more reluctant to escalate Russia’s war against Ukraine into World War III than Mr. Putin himself. The Russian Army has no chance in a military confrontation with NATO; it is barely coping with the armed forces of Ukraine.
So what about the risks of not inviting Ukraine to join NATO?
Anything except a political invitation for Ukraine at Vilnius will surely be perceived by Mr. Putin as a victory, allowing him to retain his de facto veto on the process of NATO enlargement and giving him confirmation that his policy of waging wars and occupying other countries to prevent them from joining works. As long as Ukraine remains in NATO limbo, Putin will attack Ukraine again and again with the hope of creating a new Russian Empire. There is no better insurance for Ukraine against new attacks than the guarantee of future NATO membership.
Further delaying the decision will also have a negative impact on the democratic transformations underway inside Ukraine. While Ukraine is required to conduct some of these reforms as part of its accession to the European Union, such as strengthening its judiciary and anti-corruption measures, others, like moving Ukraine’s military under civilian control, are more likely to succeed if they are included as a precondition to joining NATO. If that process stalls, NATO might face the reality of a million-strong army operating indefinitely outside full democratic civilian control. The army, which is emerging as one of the strongest at the European continent and the only one with recent battlefield experience fighting Russia, should be a part of the collective security structure, not acting alone.
Finally, should NATO members fail to act this week on Ukraine, the alliance will be discredited in the eyes of Ukrainians and millions of other residents of NATO member states who support inviting Ukraine to join. According to a recent opinion poll, 70 percent of Americans, 56 percent of the French and 55 percent of Dutch citizens who expressed opinions on Ukraine’s NATO membership support the idea of inviting Ukraine into NATO in Vilnius this week, even if some of them would prefer actual accession to happen after the war.
Maintaining the status quo will send the wrong signal to the Ukrainian mothers of teenage boys, who are frightened about having to send their sons into a series of endless conflicts with Russia. It would demotivate Ukrainian soldiers who are already fighting in extremely difficult conditions to liberate Ukrainian land. It would scare away investors who might be interested in participating in Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction. And it would discourage the millions of Ukrainian refugees who consider a commitment on Ukraine’s future membership as the only solid precondition for them to consider returning home.
Some reluctant NATO leaders might say that they don’t have anything against Ukraine’s invitation to the alliance in general, but the timing is not right. But is there any such thing as perfect timing? Next year, at the Washington NATO summit while the United States is in the midst of a presidential campaign? That seems doubtful.
Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership will not go away. Ukraine will be knocking at NATO’s door again and again to remind Western capitals that it was precisely their fear of escalation from Putin’s side that led to Europe’s largest war since World War II.
America put an end to Mr. Putin’s plans to recreate a Russian empire by helping Ukraine to defend itself. Now it’s time to bury Moscow’s imperialist dreams. There is no better way to do it than by granting Ukraine a political invitation to join NATO in Vilnius now.
I cannot speak and will not speak for the Ukrainians, but I am demoralized by the US national command authority’s reasoning and actions regarding this matter.
Bakhmut:
BAKHMUT /1700 UTC 9 JUL/ UKR forces conducted offensive ops N of Soledar; frontline sources report that UKR units are in contact 2.5 Km north of Soledar. Contact is also ongoing to the W & E of Yakolivka. UKR forces continue to be engaged on the hilltops overlooking the… pic.twitter.com/9OrQw2BAxs
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 9, 2023
BAKHMUT /1700 UTC 9 JUL/ UKR forces conducted offensive ops N of Soledar; frontline sources report that UKR units are in contact 2.5 Km north of Soledar. Contact is also ongoing to the W & E of Yakolivka. UKR forces continue to be engaged on the hilltops overlooking the village of Klischiivka.
Video of the launch of the Javelin ATGM on the Russian T-80 (the same as in post attached). By the Poltava detachment "Centuria"https://t.co/NJBVg68zev https://t.co/skfwTWOK3o pic.twitter.com/duxbdYIyyb
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023
Here’s the machine translation of the original tweet:
Two shots from “NLAW” and “Javelin”, and a T-80 Podor tank — for scrap metal. Aiming work of soldiers of the 3rd company of the anti-tank battalion of the Third Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The outskirts of Bakhmut.
Blessed are Saints Javelin and NLAW.
Velyka Novosilka:
VELYKA NOVOSILKA /0145 UTC 9 JUL/ RU platoon / company sized elements conducted offensive ops east and west of the T-05-18 HWY. UKR forces remain in control of Rivnopil, but imagery suggests that RU forces advanced to reoccupy Pryiutne. UKR was also in contact W of… pic.twitter.com/WXY5vvfuHV
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 9, 2023
VELYKA NOVOSILKA /0145 UTC 9 JUL/ RU platoon / company sized elements conducted offensive ops east and west of the T-05-18 HWY. UKR forces remain in control of Rivnopil, but imagery suggests that RU forces advanced to reoccupy Pryiutne. UKR was also in contact W of Starornnaiorske. On the other side of the T-05-18 HWY, UKR broke up a Russian probe SE of Blahodatne.
Vinnystsya Oblast:
My Mom’s village in Vinnytsya oblast greets a fallen soldier, Roman Tsymbal.
Eternal glory to Ukraine’s defender! #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/V0BQaEL4W3
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) July 9, 2023
Zarichne:
Reportedly strikes on Russian hangars somewhere near Zarichne. https://t.co/VEj1WNw30A pic.twitter.com/bT95xzD5sH
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023
Avdiivka:
/2. At the end of the video, approximately 5-6 different destroyed Russian IFVs and 1 tank are shown. pic.twitter.com/64pOT6YsaI
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023
Russian occupied Crimea:
/2. Traces of activity of Russian air defense in the area of the Crimean bridge. Russian media claim that the S-200 missile was intercepted pic.twitter.com/bzSXZWPSFL
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023
DaVinci’s Wolves have put a captured Russian thermobaric system to good use!
The trophy russian Heavy Flamethrower System TOS-1A Solntsepyok is currently in service with the 67th Mechanized Brigade. Solar inferno for the occupiers on Ukrainian land.
📸 @libkos pic.twitter.com/lUk9XEMHZP
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 9, 2023
When it comes to thermobaric weapons, it’s a game two can play pic.twitter.com/KfUsKwwbCA
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 9, 2023
More footages of the captured Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" in service with the famous Ukrainian unit "Da Vinci Wolves", 67 brigade
More footages on the unit’s official instagram profile – https://t.co/qRLiONd6Bm pic.twitter.com/pmhnoZyllx— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023
Ukrainska Pravda has reported that according to The Wall Street Journal, Poland has quietly delivered a dozen or so Soviet produced Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters to Ukraine.
Poland has recently handed over about a dozen Soviet-made Mi-24 attack helicopters to Ukraine.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, citing their sources familiar with the matter, as reported by European Pravda
Details: The news agency reported that the transfer of the helicopters from Poland had not been publicly announced.
Meanwhile, according to the report, Ukraine’s air fleet remains small compared to that of Russia. Ukrainian aircraft also have less advanced guidance and protection systems.
The article says that Ukraine is making limited use of aircraft in order not to lose them.
Background:
- It has been reported that Czechia would provide Ukraine with additional attack helicopters. Last year, the country already supplied Ukraine with such aircraft.
- In return, the country agreed to receive helicopters from the United States.
This morning, in the comments to last night’s post (did I mention that time travel gives me nose bleeds?), commenter AndoChronic asked:
Saw this article. Not sure what I think of it. Thoughts Adam?
For those not getting out of the boat, the article was published at Salon, is republished by agreement at MSN, and is by Chris Hedges. Most of it is based on a misreading of the factual material he links to in support of his argument that Ukraine’s entire defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion is a lie cooked up somewhere in the Washington, DC beltway or something and that the war was caused because of NATO expansion in the 00s. I’m not going to summarize any more of that tripe because it is factually and historically incorrect and it denies agency to everyone – the former Soviet states that sought NATO membership, the EU, NATO member states, Russia, Ukraine – except for the United States. That’s just not logically sustainable. He does, however, make one good point without intending to:
The playbook the pimps of war use to lure us into one military fiasco after another, including Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and now Ukraine, does not change. Freedom and democracy are threatened. Evil must be vanquished. Human rights must be protected. The fate of Europe and NATO, along with a “rules-based international order” is at stake. Victory is assured.
Specifically:
Freedom and democracy are threatened. Evil must be vanquished. Human rights must be protected. The fate of Europe and NATO, along with a “rules-based international order” is at stake.
Victory is never assured, but there are ways to maximize the chances of achieving it. That said, in this case freedom, or rather liberty, and democracy are threatened. I don’t think anyone at this point is really going to try to argue with a straight face that Putin isn’t a tremendously bad actor even if we leave the judgement of whether he’s actually evil to the philosophers. Human rights not only must, but should be protected. Frankly, the need to do this does not excuse all the bad policies, strategies, planning, and implementation that brought us the failures in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. The Syria strategy was working until the Trump administration first warped it and then scrapped it all together once again abandoning our Kurdish allies. And, as I wrote about last night, without Ukraine’s stalwart defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, the Russian military would now be perched on the borders of Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Moldova. So yes, the fate of at least eastern Europe and the eastern members of NATO along with a rules based international order are, in fact, at stake.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Here’s more on Patron, his team of Chernihiv sappers, and the attack on Balaklia.
From the Balaklian municipal government’s Telegram channel:
More details from Espresso News:
“We worked very effectively again in the Kharkiv region near Balakliya. This town is still suffering from rocket attacks. It was the same when we were there. I heard a whistle and a rumble, but I thought it was my colleagues who were going to detonate explosives. But for some reason, Mykhailo (the owner – ed.) quickly moved me to a shelter and covered me with his body. I realized it was a Russian rocket. Very close,” Patron wrote on his social media page.
On June 5, the Russian occupation army attacked Balakliya with Smerch MLRS. According to the head of the regional administration, Oleh Syniehubov, 1 person was killed and 9 others were injured.
Patron noted that his team has already returned home unharmed. And he once again emphasized how important it is to stay in shelters during an air raid alert and take your pets there.
Originally adopted as a companion dog, Patron (“bullet” in Ukrainian – ed.) is now a celebrity service dog who works with the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.
In the first months since the start of the Russian invasion, he helped to find more than 200 explosive devices.
Last year he was awarded a medal by President Zelenskyy. The dog has also become a symbol of Ukraine’s resistance against Russia.
Perhaps a new alternative verse to the US Navy hymn?
Eternal Deity, strong to save,
Those whose tails do bravely wave,
Who root and dig tenaciously,
And love cheese and rubber duckies.
It may need some work…
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Коли ти серйозний пес, але тренд зняти всеодно хочеться😅
Here the machine translation of the caption:
When you’re a serious dog, but you still want to shoot the trend 😅
Open thread!
TheMightyTrowel
eternal deities high above
thou four-legged beings of purist love
we beseech rescue from fear or hurt
for those who help us clear the dirt.
had to rewrite because “root” means something different in Australian
Gin & Tonic
That Biden comment is in equal parts heartbreaking and infuriating.
I have written on this very blog in the past on this topic, and suspect I will do so again, but Ukraine, with barely 30 years of democratic elections in the current era, can show the US a thing or two or three about how to run free, fair and quickly- and accurately-counted elections. So shut the fuck up, Joe. The last Presidential election ousted an incumbent and the result was counted, settled and accepted in 24 hours.
Adam L Silverman
@TheMightyTrowel: That works! Thanks.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Biden’s answer sounded rehearsed. How much of it is aimed at Sweden/Turkey? I mean, Erdogan knows he has a unilateral veto here and being pressed on Ukraine presumes he’s locked for Sweden. Neither he nor Orban are going to start their own NATO only with hookers and blackjack.
PS: This is why these events rarely seem to show much on the surface. Hard to tell the difference between “nothing to show” and “nothing to show yet”.
Mike in NC
Have hated that guy for years.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: As has been repeatedly mentioned, Erdogan endorsed Ukraine’s admittance into NATO after his meeting with Zelenskyy at the end of last week. So that’s not an issue. Frankly, what Ukraine is looking for here is a political statement and process that makes it clear that yes, once the war is over, Ukraine will be admitted and here’s how we’ll go about it. Had Biden just limited himself to that, it would’ve been okay because that’s what Reznikov said Ukraine needed to get at the summit in Vilnius this week. Unfortunately, that’s not what was either explicit or implied in Biden’s answer this morning.
Another Scott
Of course the trouble with big groups that require unanimity is that they require unanimity. The US is also first among equals in NATO, and that means that leading from behind is often a prudent course. I expect a decent statement out of the summit.
I’m also reminded of SECDEF Austin’s comments from June 16:
Biden knows it’s essential for NATO to speak with one voice, but also is working on plans for assistance outside of NATO. The timing and the details matter a great deal, and trial balloons and preparing the NATO public are important (remember the run-up to actually providing western tanks; recall what’s going on with F-16 training now; etc.) of course. Maybe we’ll hear more this week. NATO can’t get too far ahead of the public in the weakest member state – NATO’s credibility is its superpower, so it has to have all its ducks in a row before any announcement.
My $0.02.
Thanks Adam.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
TheMightyTrowel
@Adam L Silverman: a gift in gratitude for all your work here
Ivan X
I mean the only thing I can imagine here is that Biden wants to be “balanced” in his foreign policy the same way the news media does in their political coverage. He’s not going to be pigeonholed as being “pro-war” or “pro-ww3.” Whether or not that helps Ukraine, well, that’s another story.
Chetan Murthy
There’s some sort of subtext to Biden’s comments (and maybe to the bigger conversation) that is unclear. It seems like he’s saying “look, the alliance members are not in agreement on this, and we CANNOT act without agreement.” And so, given what we know about public pronouncements, it makes me wonder *who* opposes Ukraine’s entry, and why. [BEGIN rampant speculation] If we list off countries that might oppose,
all come to mind. I wonder if there are others. I think HU is doing it for nefarious reasons, where DE/FR for …. well, more lily-livered/pecuniary reasons (though gosh, $$ is nefarious too).
P.S. I don’t really blame Biden so much: he’s demonstrated one thing throughout his administration: he goes where the consensus is; if he can build consensus, that’s great. But he’s not going to push people to a place they’re unwilling to go. So I look to elsewhere for the reasons that the consensus is not coalescing around “admit them, dammit.”
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: It’s Germany. Hungary most likely as well given Orban’s relationship with Putin, but in this case the other hyper conservative is Scholz.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy:
Sometimes leaders actually have to lead. Otherwise they’re not leaders.
Anonymous At Work
@Chetan Murthy: I’d go with Hungary as a start. And then I’d wonder if there’s someone else in it with them. Erdogan is not a favorite and always on my list. Sunak, with significant domestic issues within his party and Boris Johnson having loaded the party with lots of Russian kleptocrat rats, might be another.
Carlo Graziani
In my view, the one of the best arguments for extending the invitation to join now is that while Russia has been deterred from nuclear escalation so far by Western threats to intervene directly in the conflict, should the Russians suffer a decisive battlefield defeat at the hands of the UA and be expelled from the coast and the Donbas, that deterrent could lose its force. The Russians might consider spite strikes on their way out. If Ukraine were a NATO member-in-waiting, the threshold guarding against such strikes might be quite a bit higher.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I still remember your post from before the war, where you noted what the US could do to stop the war cold. Send some combat teams and other military assets to Ukraine, land them directly across from where RU was amassing forces, and the war stops in its tracks, b/c while RU would attack Ukrainian forces, there’s no way they’d directly attack American troops. [I’m probably misremembering: you were pretty specific about what needed to be done.] And you write this, IIRC, in Nov 2021 or so. Plenty of time to do it right.
Instead, we get who knows how many tens or hundreds of thousands dead and going-on-a-trillion-dollars of damage.
I also wish that leaders would lead. But I’m reminded that the definition of a political leader is someone who sees a parade going in some direction, and rushes to the front of it. It is what it is.
zhena gogolia
I’m sure we’ll all be much happier with the way President Trump handles it.
phdesmond
I just got home from a poetry reading held on the lawn at the Longfellow House in Cambridge, Mass. the details:
patrick II
@Chetan Murthy:
This is a long way off — but if Hungary becomes the lone serious holdout to Ukraine’s admission to NATO, I would let Ukraine in NATO and tell Hungary good luck when Russia’s remaining T-72’s start rolling across the border.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy:
I’d, personally, be careful in thinking that US troops on the ground would be an automatic shield.
TheWarHorse.org story about a battle in Syria in February 2018.
This stuff is complicated. :-/
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@patrick II: Like CH and AT, HU is protected by other people’s soldiers and military. Ah, well.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: Here you go:
https://balloon-juice.com/2022/01/29/the-strategists-policy-makers-dilemma-assumption-of-risk/
patrick II
@Chetan Murthy:
I should have looked at a map before I wrote that, but I would still say goodbye to Hungary and bring in Ukraine — looking at the map actually reinforces that.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: The Wagner mercs did not survive that encounter.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Reading about RU trying out their own national internal network, and now about disinformation/Nebula of War…what would happen to RU troll farms and disinformation if RU tried to get off the world-wide web?
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: The IRA and the other Prigozhin run operations that don’t make the news and do the same thing and the official Russian government efforts will all have access to the global Internet. Actual Russians would not.
Anonymous At Work
@patrick II: I don’t think that NATO has a mechanism for kicking out a member against their will. That’s the issue. And given Austria and Italy (!!! maybe it’s them!!!) and a few other nations with a penchant for ultra-conservative governments, I don’t imagine they’d appreciate it.
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: So if something is “better than Trump”, then we have to see it as perfect and wonderful and terrific?
This is a false dichotomy. Expressing disappointment with something a Democrat did =/= wishing a Republican were in their place.
I won’t put my own response to Biden into words here because continuing a debate on these kinds of terms is not what I need right now.
Ukraine did not ask for this war. It did not start this war. Penalizing them, while their lands and homes and bodies are being desecrated and ravaged, because the war is happening is bullshit. That’s all I’ll say and I’ll see myself out.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Anonymous At Work
@Adam L Silverman: But wouldn’t it make it easier to detect? Masking IPs only can do so much. Would they have to shift to relaying disinformation to others to post? Wouldn’t that expose known agents, as opposed to useful idiots?
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: Putting negativity about Biden into the universe is not going to help Ukraine in the long run. I’m TERRIFIED about what’s going to happen if Trump gets in there.
Bye, all.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: I’m not saying he shouldn’t be reelected. I am just less than thrilled with how this has and is being handled.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: They don’t really seem to care.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I have actually been surprised by Scholz a few times.
oldster
twitter update:
For those of us who do not have accounts, it seems that the functionality has improved from its low of about a week ago.
Now, if I click on a tweet, I can go to the tweet in the twitter page and read it. I can also see any videos embedded in it. I could not do that a week ago.
I still cannot read tweets the way that I used to, and I cannot use Josh Marshall’s Ukraine Crisis list, which is a major loss.
But your nightly updates provide some of that service, Adam, for which I’m very grateful. And the tweets are a bit more useful than they were a week ago.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: Devil’s Advocate:
What if (when) Ukraine wins while being outside of NATO: wouldn’t that tell the would-be tyrants out there that the US and NATO will support friends and interests (“for as long as it takes”) – even those outside formal treaty obligations? Wouldn’t that be a forceful counterpoint to the idea that “NATO rules say a country can’t join if there’s a territorial dispute, so we’ll create one…”? Wouldn’t that make the world safer?
I expect to see Ukraine in NATO, someday. A bigger holdup than “democratic norms” and all the rules about joining may be interoperability of military forces (but that is rapidly changing, of course). I also think that the world is complicated and we have to be able to be flexible to support friends and interests in other ways.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
NobodySpecial
I think we all forget sometimes how much trust in the US as a stable institution was eroded when Trump took office. We spent 75 years building up soft power in Europe and Trump managed to piss away most of it in four. I don’t think anyone trusts the US political process anymore , and that makes it difficult to get people on your side in a debate if they think you’re going to bail on them in a year.
Chetan Murthy
@oldster:
haha! Yes, it looks like user timelines are now visible thru nitter.net. Though, “lists” still aren’t, ah well.Oops, no. Only the pinned tweet and profile data shows up. Not the timeline.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: Oh, and on your larger point about nuclear escalation:
I believe the reports that VVP gamed out using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and (sensibly) determined that they would not help. Xi and important players in the “global South” have apparently told him that using such weapons in such a way against a non-nuclear state would be very much opposed as well.
They may well damage the ZNPP, but I would suspect that would mainly be damaging support facilities (control rooms, turbines, etc.) rather than trying to damage the reactors directly themselves.
That said, it’s important not to assume that everything is predictable, and that things will always turn out the way we want. Contingency plans need to be in place.
:-(
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
@NobodySpecial: Exactly.
Chetan Murthy
@NobodySpecial: Thing is, this would argue *for* Ukraine getting NATO membership, and *for* NATO countries to bulk up militarily. If they don’t trust that the US will be there to save their asses next time, they’d want to turn Europe into an armed camp, not sit around sucking their thumbs and hoping Uncle Sam will save their asses one more time.
That that’s not happening tells me that there are still many elites in Europe who are bought by Putin (just as there are here). And many idiot voters, too.
ETA: I mean, anybody in Europe who thinks that Putin can be appeased *at this point* is an idiot: either intellectual or moral or both.
Grey Michael
@NobodySpecial: I agree with your statement about the ease at which soft power evaporates.
One thing I would add to your example, is the damage President Bush did with his global war on terror. The GWOT gave rise to the European phrase “ Cowboy diplomacy “. Only Obama’s election stopped the bleeding.Our soft power began to erode there, but to your point, trump accelerated that erosion quite a bit.
The Moar You Know
As a citizen of a democracy, it is morally incumbent that the leaders of said democracy be called out when they fuck up. Biden fucked up here. Badly.
Doesn’t mean now I have to go out and vote team Trump. It is possible to do the right thing twice at the same time.
Geminid
I keep seeing reports of Russian counterattacks, and I keep wondering why they would do this. They can achieve only local success at best. It seems like the Russians would do better to stay in their holes and make the Ukrainians dig them out.
Not that I am complaining.
Gin & Tonic
@The Moar You Know: This.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
They already did. A thermal plant/complex with 6 gigawatts of electricity output needs serious cooling; the Russians destroyed that when they demolished the Kakhovka Dam . (Thermal plants are typically less than 40 percent efficient; the rest of the (wasted) heat must be removed, somehow.)
YY_Sima Qian
Well, Biden has never been a disciplined speaker. What he says is probably what he sincerely believes, which is generally a positive trait. In diplomacy, however, it is not always just about honesty, but choosing words carefully & picking the right moment to say them, to get the message clearly across w/o unnecessarily embarrassing the counterparty, back them into a corner, or foreclose one’s own options.
Chetan Murthy
This was interesting: https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-outside-nato-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/
The thing that jumped out at me was not so much the nukes, but rather, that for a country like Ukraine, neighbors with a hungry imperial power, it’s only good sense too do everything possible to destroy that neighbor’s military power. One can expect that Ukraine would continue a campaign of destabilization inside Russia even after an armistice, b/c they’d know that anything else was colossal stupidity. If Europe wants actual peace and stability (and the chance to, y’know, sip on that sweet, sweet Russia fossil fuel), they need to create actual stability in Ukraine. Otherwise (for example), why would Ukraine not just blow those pipelines every damn chance it gets?
Eolirin
@NobodySpecial: It wasn’t just Trump. We had 8 years of W first. Obama did a lot to restore confidence, but for this to happen twice? It’s hard to view us as being remotely trustworthy.
Carlo Graziani
@zhena gogolia: We may, perhaps, take comfort in the fact that Republicans have been extremely bad at winning statewide elections lately, lethally so since Dobbs, and that the blue wall of Michigan and Wisconsin seems pretty sturdy these days.
I am the last person to make electoral forecasts, especially this far out. But I do find it good for the soul to take the comfort of one’s hopes where one can find them, rather than to dwell excessively on one’s fears.
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: Given the weakness Russia’s been demonstrating inside their own borders, without security guarantees that they can rely on, if the Ukrainians manage to fully rout the Russian forces in Ukraine, why not just march on Moscow?
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin: Surely you mean that in jest, right? That’d be a great way to get Russia (and Russians) to, y’know, get their shit together, eh? That -and- who would want all those people as citizens?
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: If Prigozhin has taught us anything it’s that all they have to do is say they’re liberating Russia from bad generals and everyone seems to put their guns down. :P
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin: Again, *grin*. I think Pierogi’s trick was that he was also a *Russian*. And had a reputation already as being a military hero and all. If *Ukrainians* invaded Russia, it’d be a different thing. Even the Russian Freedom Legion (did I get the name right?) gets a different response than Pierogi does.
hotshoe
If you even need a reason to bring tears to your eyes — I recommend the video above by olexander scherba with the villagers lining the road to pay respect to their fallen Ukraine soldier. After one minute I was crying so hard I couldn’t swallow.
P.S. keep the sound off; it’s music, but it doesn’t help.
Ksmiami
@Gin & Tonic: I’m writing the administration when I get back
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: But to be more serious, if the Ukrainians were to have a significant breakthrough that resulted in a rout without severely depleting their own forces, I’m not sure that the Russians will have enough in reserves to actually hold the line against a serious offensive into their own territory without the defensive use of nukes. At minimum, if they really wanted to, I’d expect Ukraine could significantly expand it’s territory before being forced to stop advancing. I think maintaining continued western support is the primary thing that’d hold them back under those conditions
The same goes for any of the other nations that Russia’s been keeping under their thumb, and not that they’d directly take advantage of it, but also the Chinese.
Chetan Murthy
@hotshoe: It’s another example of the thing you see over and over in Ukraine: videos of villagers kneeling as Ukrainian liberators go by, older Ukrainians hugging their liberators, crying. And the lines of kneeling Ukrainians as a funeral cortege passes by.
You never see that from Russia. And one wonders why not. [actually, one doesn’t wonder: one is merely confirmed in one’s opinion of Russia and Russians, and their unjust war that none of them actually want, but all are content that Russia participate in as long as they personally aren’t getting shot at]
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin: For sure, Western support would dry up, and rightly so. But even if Ukraine were to want to swallow Russian territory, it would be foolish to go for Moscow, when the Kuban is right there, yes? [the bit of land on the Black Sea between Ukraine and Georgia] That used to be part of historical Ukraine, and why would Ukraine want Muscovy when they could have the Kuban.
Also, there’s the little issue of logistics. Moscow<->Chernobyl is 430mi: you’re going to need a significant force and massive logistics behind it, to make that kind of distance.
But really, the right answer is: Ukraine wouldn’t do it, b/c they want their internationally-recognized borders, and jesus who would want Russians anyway?
ETA: I mean, can you imagine Ukrainians allowing Russians to *vote*? And if they don’t, then Ukraine is no longer a democracy, right? I cannot imagine that the leaders of Ukraine would want that for their country. They’ve fought too hard for democracy to give it up so easily for a bit of conquest.
Gin & Tonic
@hotshoe: This happens every day somewhere in Ukraine
ETA: The song accompanying is “Журавлі” – meaning cranes (the birds.)
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: The Moscow bit was a joke, yes. Invading to further disrupt and minimize the ability for Russia to be a continuing threat, maybe not so much. NATO membership is a better option for them, but.
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin: Well, I think that invading isn’t a good way to disrupt: it’s a good way to get Russia to organize itself and resist. The way to disrupt is a coordinated campaign of sabotage all over Russia. Get Russia hunting its own people, for collaborators all over the country. Drive them mad with suspicion. And oh by-the-by, assassinate every leader with blood-soaked hands. Every one. A much better use of resources than invading. Also, haha, completely deniable. Just like all those ammo warehouse explosions in Bulgaria and Czechia.
NutmegAgain
@phdesmond: That sounds wonderful. (Sigh. I really miss living near home… for me, a couple towns west. Not gonna happen again in this lifetime.)
Chetan Murthy
Today, over in a thread at LG&M (about Assholes with Casseroles), CV Danes pointed me at Hannah Arendt’s essay “Personal Responsibility under Dictatorship” ( https://grattoncourses.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/responsibility-under-a-dictatorship-arendt.pdf ). I’m reading it now, but this gem jumped out at me:
It seemed relevant to thinking about Russian soldiers and the conditions under which they fight, barrier troops and all.
Jay
@Geminid:
when you lose ground/position to an attack, it’s standard tactic’s to counter attack before your opponent get’s entrenched, learns the lay of the land and sets up logistics.
Your best chance to dislodge your opponent is immediately after they have taken the position.
It’s SOP.
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: Good point. If they need the dam back before the plant can be fully operational, then that’s a big problem.
There’s apparently talk of pumping water up from the new water level, but it’s not clear to me if that’s a practical solution to get the plant running, or mainly a way to ensure safety in it’s mostly cold-shutdown state.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Minor quibble: I believe that SOP is local counterattacks to contain, disrupt, and regain territory lost to local enemy attacks, under the authority of local commanders without requiring permission from higher command.
That’s not how the Russians roll. If any counterattack occurs, the full operations order probably came from brigade level, if not higher.
So if the Russians are in fact using counterattacks as part of their response to the counter-offensive, it means that there is likely higher-level military or political reasoning driving those attacks. Not necessarily good reasoning, but a logic of sorts.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
which is probably why the Orc’s counterattacks have been useless.
By the time Brigaide or higher has learned of the loss, organized and ordered a counter attack, the Ukrainian forces are entrenched, know the lay of the land, have arty and drone cover, and are supplied.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Some details about the cooling pond in this paper:
Environmental Characteristics by Eco-Sanitary and Toxic Criteria of the Cooling Pond of Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (Ukraine) (August 2018)
The overall design is flexible.
The paper does not address it; it appears that if enough water can be pumped to it, engineers will be able to work around cooling capacity problems caused by the dam demolition.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
C-130, HIMARS, Apaches, and artillery for the win!
In the latest Prighozin mess it surfaced that Wagner counted on Russian air defenses and air force patrolling over the theater but the Russian military didn’t do that and they didn’t tell Wagner. He allegedly went to Moscow and tried to talk to Shoigu and only succeeded after a week or so at some event where Shoigu gave him some stupid and insulting answer.
Chetan Murthy
@Sebastian: Remember when Pierogi was complaining some months back that all his phones had been blocked so they couldn’t call the MoD ? Good times, good times.
Sebastian
@Chetan Murthy:
Unless there is an ironclad peace treaty, Ukraine will fuck up Russia ad infinitum. And Poland will help secretly.
Chetan Murthy
@Sebastian: A-fucking-men. I am reminded of the “business before pleasure” joke.
Sebastian
@Chetan Murthy:
Let’s be honest, it’s not Ukraine’s fault that Ivan smokes a lot.
<insert Budanov stoic face.jpg>
Chetan Murthy
@Sebastian: <…. with a nearly-undetectable smirk …>
MaryLou
@Adam L Silverman:
@Adam L Silverman: I suspect Biden might be more of the leader you wish for if he were 20 twenty points ahead of Trump in the polls right now. Instead he’s getting sniping from the right and the left, and can’t afford to cause too much heartburn in the middle.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Have you heard this one?
An old Polish Farmer once stubbed his toe on an object in a field. Reaching down, he realized that it was a classic oil lamp from The Arabian Nights. Naturally he rubbed its side, and of course smoke rushed out and gelled into a mighty Genie.
“You have freed me from my bondage!” declaimed the Genie. “For this, I will grant you any three boons that you may wish for!”
The farmer squinted up at the Genie, thought for a moment, then said “All right. For my first wish, I want Genghis Khan to return from the dead, together with his Golden Horde. They must ride all the way West to the border of Poland, then turn around and ride all the way back across Asia.”
The Genie stared at him, then made a note of this unusual request in his Genie-notebook, and snapped it shut. “Very well!” he announced. “And you second wish?”
“For my second wish,” the farmer said, ” I desire that Genghis Khan to return from the dead, together with his Golden Horde. They must ride all the way West to the border of Poland, then turn around and ride all the way back across Asia.”
The Genie cast a beady eye at this obviously deranged character who was obstinately declining to request either wealth or power, and after deciding to mention this odd occurrence at the next Genie Conclave some two millenia hence, made an “× 2” mark in his notebook near the first request. Then he fixed the farmer in his gaze, and in a thunderous growl said “Of course. And your third wish?”
The farmer serenely said ” Well, for my third wish, I’d like Genghis Khan to return from the dead, together with his Golden Horde. They must ride all the way West to the border of Poland…”
“Yes, yes, ALRIGHT” shouted the Genie. “Of course, ride West to the Polish border, turn around and go home! Got it! But why in the name of all that is holy do you want to be granted three identical copies of this same, deeply demented wish?”
Smiling, the farmer said “He has to cross Russia six times!”
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: this is what like buttons are for!
Hkedi [Kang T.Q.]
@Geminid: The reason why the Russians are counterattacking is that internally they are still primarily driven by political and not strategic motivations.
If they were driven by strategic motivations, they would have pulled back after 2-3 months, or better yet, not attacked at all and used the threat to extract concessions from Ukraine and the US.
Sebastian
@Chetan Murthy:
“It will get worse.”
dr. luba
@Carlo Graziani: This is an anecdote shared with me some 20+ years ago by my cousin’s BIL in Lviv.
Two men, a russian and a Ukrainian, were fishing, and hooked the same fish. But this was no ordinary fish, it was a golden talking fish, a staple of Ukrainian folklore.
The fish offers the men three wishes to let it go. They agree.
“But I get two wishes” the russian says. The Ukrainian agrees.
“Go ahead,” the fish says.
“First,” says the russian, “I want all the khokhly (derogatory russian slang for Ukrainians) to leave holy mother russia.”
“Done” says the fish.
“Next, I want you to build a 20 meter high stone wall around holy mother russia.”
“Done,” says the fish. It turns to the Ukrainian and says “What is your wish?”
“So,” the Ukrainian says, “All my countrymen have left russia?”
“Yes,” says the fish.
“And the 20 meter high wall is built?”
“Yes,” says this fish.
“Fill it with cement.”
Chris T.
I suspect that a lot of the existing NATO membership (including the US) is operating from a “loss aversion” standpoint, thinking that they have something to lose—namely, their cushy positions where they’re not fighting Russia—as long as they avoid bringing Ukraine into NATO. Alas, what they don’t realize is that they have already lost these positions. They’re in the fight already. They need to pick a side, and by not acting, they’re picking Russia!
Chetan Murthy
@Chris T.: as President zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials and intellectuals have said, this war has shown us that our multilateral institutions are not fit for purpose. I’m fully expecting that if this war goes on for two more years, The CEE countries Will form a mutual defense pact, perhaps with the Nordics also.
Chetan Murthy
From commenter Terence hearsay over at dKos: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/9/2180198/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-502-continued-counteroffensive-operations-in-at-least-three-sectors#comment_86557567
bjacques
@Chetan Murthy: that’s hilarious. And it was a happy day for me when Democrats stopped accepting moral victories over Republicans like they’d been doing from the 1990s to about 2016 and started aiming for real ones.
Now let’s hope Erdogan unilaterally renews the Ukraine grain deal that’s supposed to expire in a week. I can’t see any downside for him in doing so, and it’s a benefit for Ukraine and the rest of the world. Works for me.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
@dr. luba:
There are jokes in similar vein in every country at their neighbors’s expense, or people in every region of every large country about others in neighboring regions of the same country. These are nativist appeals to our baser lizard brain instincts. (For example, I have heard variants of the Genie joke that had a Russian wishing for invasions by Germany, or a German wishing for invasions by Russia, just so that the invaders would cross Poland 6 times.)
Not sure we should be celebrating or normalizing such nativism. The illiberal ruling party in Poland thrives on such sentiments, aimed at both Russia & Germany.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m sure you’re right, but until thiis war is over *and* Russia stops attacking our country, I reserve the full right to feel any amount of hatred I wish towards Russia and Russians as a people.
They tried to destroy my country, are trying still. And in so destroying, they’re robbing me of the only home I’ve ever known. I don’t forgive that shit.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Fully understand & am sympathetic to your sentiments, I just think there are better ways to express them.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: You might be right, but I haven’t found any. My hatred of MAGAts and those who support them both in the US and elsewhere, is pretty vitriolic. During TFG’s Reign of Error, I used to say that my hatred was like that of a million suns at the galactic core, all going supernova simultaneously. It was then that I began my hatred of Russia and Russians. Hatred, not dislike. Hatred.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: The MAGAts think that they are the only ones who hate; they think that we are all soft, lily-livered, and have no backbone. That we aren’t judgmental, that all things are the same for us. But I’m every bit as judgmental as they are, every bit as full of moral outrage as they pretend to be, every bit as angry as they are.
I love these brutal jokes about Russians and Cletii.
Unkown known
No, they don’t, and that is causing all kinds of headaches for Natio and the EU. Their inclusion gives them all kinds of veo chokepoints over really important things, and they are increasingly not shy about using them to pretty illiberal ends (ask Sweden).
I have no idea whether you are more likely to get the necessary reforms (in a way that makes them stick – not an easy task) by pre-inviting them, or by holding open the hoops that need to be jumped through first. But they aren’t just pointless niceties.
Unkown known
True. But they also think that we are all powerful, and endlessly judgmental of them, and they are the poor beaten-down underdogs who just want to be able to say whatever racist thing dances through their mind without being attacked and silenced.
And part of the reason they are so angry now is that they ARE slowly losing power, as their generation slowly dies out of the electorate. Their comfortable hegemony is starting to face serious threat, and they are PISSED… and old people vote disproportionately enough to give that anger a real dangerous amount of power still.
In theory it will get better in another decade or two or three as they continue to die out, but only if our democracies survive that long.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: Immrdiately after the release of the five Azov officers was announced, Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu (@ragipsoylu) tweeted:
Speculation that Erdogan had made some sort if deal with Putin was dispelled by a statement by Kremlin spokesman Peskov to Novosti that “No one informed Russia” about the transfer….”
This was a public relations problem for Russia, because it exposed Putin’s weakness, and the shallow foundations of Erdogan’s transactional, “frenemy” relationship with Putin. Peskov was almost plaintive when he described Erdogan’s reasons:
One possible factor here: shortly after the Wagner mutiny ended, a Russian jet bombed a market in northwestern Syria, killing and wounding over 40 Syrian civilians. Observers said this was Russia lashing out to demonstrate that its power is unbroken. Many in the West paid little attention, but Erdogan surely did.
Erdogan has his own transactional relation with Putin and Syria, and rebels and civilians in Idlib Province have been under Turkish protection. Hostilities there have been on hold as Turkiye, Russia and Syria negotiate an end to Turkiye’s military presence in Syria. Putin’s projected visit to Turkiye next month is in part to further this process. Erdogan and Putin talk often, and if Putin asked Erdogan, “Why did you release those prisoners?” Erdogan might have replied, “Why did your Air Force bomb that market?”
Geminid
@Geminid:
@Chetan Murthy: Another and larger factor here may be Erdogan’s reelection on May 28. Russia had supported Turkiye’s faltering economy with cash infusions of various kinds, and the economy was Erdogan’s greatest stumbling block in that election. Now the UAE is stepping in to invest in Turkish institutions as Finance Minister Selim Selcik and the Central Bank apply more conventional methods to reduce inflation. Erdogan does not need Putin’s help like he did before May 28.
So, how assertive will Erdogan be now? Polish military analyst Visegrad 24 and others report an interesting story that Turkiye intends to supply naval escorts to grain convoys transiting the Black Sea, if Russia does not renew the Grain Initiative by July 17.
This would be big if it actually came to pass, but I expect Russia will fold and assent to renewal of the Grain Initiative, with a lot more of their usual grumbling.
Unkown known
@Geminid: That actually makes more sense to me than the “ha ha we reneged on the deal, because you always renege on yours”. account. There’s some basic game theory behind the incentive to keep your bargains. Once you have a reputation for squelching on them, then that gives people less incentive to bargain with you in future (and maybe you don’t care about that if you don’t make many deals, but it’s a real cost). If Turkiye were to make a future offer to take political prisoners off Putin’s hands, would he accept? With Russia their perfidity is kind of baked-in… people don’t make a lot of deals with them if they don’t have to, because they know that they are unlikely to be held up to any particularly high standard.
But if it’s part of some ongoing ‘game’ where Ergodan is sending Putin a message that ‘you crossed me here, so I’ll cross you there’, then it’s just part of a longer tit-for-tat exchange. That makes more sense.