First published on: Sep 20, 2023 at 19:30. Reposting for the daytime peeps to have input.
Watch the video; you won’t regret it. Barack Obama is in Virginia, telling the story of the “Fired Up!” lady and how it all got started.
Plus, Barack Obama from 2008 is hot. (I did not just say that.)
Football season started Sept 7. Baseball season starts March 28. Work for my summer client ended on Sept 15. Balloon Juice Fundraising and Political Action starts today. Join the fight!
Barack Obama:
It shows you what one voice can do. One voice can change a room. And if a voice can change a room, it can change a city. And if it can change a city, it can change a state. And if it can change a state, it can change a nation. And if it can change a nation, it can change the world. Your voice can change the world.
We had a pretty big collective voice in 2021-22. I like to think that our strategic approach and amazing fundraising on Balloon Juice had a big impact on outcomes in 2022. I hope we can do it again. Dog knows we are in the fight of our lives.
Virginia!
You guys know that the entire Virginia General Assembly is up for the vote on November 7, 2023 right?
And that early voting starts in two days? On Friday? THIS FRIDAY.
Virginia has become a pretty reliable blue state in the Presidential election cycle, though they totally let themselves and everyone else down when they got complacent and elected the wolf in sheep’s clothing as their governor. But that’s in the past, and there’s no point in rehashing that.
To the surprise of no one: Republicans have more power in the Virginia Statehouse than their raw numbers would warrant. With every seat up for a vote in the Virginia General Assembly (GA) this is a great opportunity to turn that around. Not sure what we can do about all the dark money, but I wonder if the off-year elections could be changed? (Maybe someone knows the answer to to that?)
Join the Fight!
Is there a role for us in Virginia? Fundraising? Postcards? Volunteering?
After the last cycle, there seemed to be consensus among BJ peeps that we would continue to focus on electoral access and voter turnout in swing states, particularly among populations that are typically under-represented – black, brown, and native voters, along with former felons. This year, if you guys agree, we want to add a focus on young voters. We are also focused on reproductive rights.
To the extent we target local races, it’s because there is a potential nation-wide impact. And we are only targeting groups and races where our money can make a difference. Do the upcoming Virginia legislative elections fit within these goals?
Maybe.
In terms of national impact, a Democratic victory in Virginia would provide much needed continued momentum coming into the election year. Hopefully it would put a major crimp in Youngkin’s plans for the presidency. Further, the rollback of reproductive rights in Virginia would reverberate far beyond the state. Virginia is one of – if not the only – Southern state in to allow abortions up to 26 weeks of pregnancy.
But does Virginia need our financial help?
Some background:
- Governor Glenn Youngkin – the down-vest-wearing alleged future savior of the party – is a Republican.
- The 40 member Virginia Senate is narrowly in Democratic hands.
- The 100 member House of Delegates narrowly flipped to the Republicans in 2021, after Youngkin repeatedly shrieked “Critical Race Theory” and manufactured concerns about dirty books in school libraries and giant trans women in sports.
- If Republicans retain control of the House of Delegates and flip the Senate, Youngkin could end the stalemate on reproductive rights, taxes, school “choice,” climate change and all the other items on the reprehensible Republican agenda.
The Good News in Virginia
There’s hope.
Redistricting: In 2021, Virginia voters approved a new (and fairer) redistricting process. This led to a mass of retirements and exoduses in this cycle. According to the Virginia Mercury:
The reasons for the 2023 exodus vary from legislator to legislator. For some, advanced age or illness were a decisive factor. But the dramatically different electoral maps created after voters approved a new redistricting process in 2021 have been a clear factor in the ongoing institutional shake-up, pushing many incumbents out and opening up more room for candidates to run in new districts other incumbents can’t fully claim as their own.
“A lot of oxes got gored on both sides of the aisle,” said Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Rich Anderson. “I guess in that sense one could say it was a fair map.”
Momentum: There is Democratic momentum, both nation-wide and in Virginia. As in most places, Virginia Democrats over-performed expectations in 2022. A Democrat won a Congressional special election in February 2023 with three quarters of the vote (retaining a seat). In the State Senate, an early 2023 special election flipped a Republican seat (which gave the Democrats control of the Senate).
Money. The national Democratic party is not ignoring this election: As of mid-September, the DNC – at President Biden’s direction – has invested $1,500,000 into campaign staffing and get-out-the-vote programming. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, so far this cycle the Democrats have raised over $34MM to the Republican’s $20MM. The numbers and the financial momentum are on our side.
The Wild Card: There is a potential government shutdown looming at the end of the month. While much of the country may shrug it off, the impact on Virginia could be devastating. Hundreds of thousands of government workers in NoVa and the Hampton Roads area could be furloughed (and unpaid). The economic fallout would be felt immediately. This could benefit the Democrats if blame is properly assigned.
The Bad News in Virginia
Money is pouring in on the Republican side as well. Youngkin’s unholy “Spirit of Virginia” PAC has raised $8,500,000 so far this year and posted a record-breaking fundraising total in the last quarter. While significantly behind the Democrats, the Republicans are not rolling over. And while his popularity has slipped a bit, Youngkin remains fairly popular in Virginia.
Possible Races to Target
Despite all 140 seats being contested, there are only a handful of true toss-ups, particularly in the Hampton Roads (Norfolk/Virginia Beach). This is a former Republican stronghold trending purple.
According to the election analytics organization CNalysis there are four true toss ups in the House of Delegates. This includes two vulnerable Virginia Beach-area Republicans who squeaked by in 2021, but whose districts acquired more Democrats in the recent re-districting.
The two other toss-ups are in open seats that voted for Youngkin, but also for Democratic candidates in the 2022 congressional house race. (U.S. House)
Similarly, the three Senate toss-ups – two of which are open seats – also are in districts that voted for both Youngkin and the Democratic Congressional candidate in 2022.
https://cnalysis.com/articles/initial-forecast-virginia-2023/
After seeing the details, what are your thoughts on jumping into the VA races financially?
Door #1: Yes, let’s get in right away and target the toss-ups candidates with the most potential and/or support local turn-out-the-vote groups. Also, postcards.
Door #2: Let’s hold our fire for the short term and see what kind of money pours into these Virginia races. We’ll monitor the inflow through various sources, including the Virginia Public Access Project. If we spot an opportunity – a promising candidate whose fundraising is lagging, for example – we’ll put up a thermometer. Also, postcards.
Door #3: Take a pass. There’s enough money coming in – this is like the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. But still do postcards.
What say you, BJ peeps?
I am very much inclined toward Door #1, but if you have a different preference, please share your thinking.
Basically, if you’re on board, we would set up something like the Purple House Races fundraising in 2022.
Also, if you have other thoughts about how to approach Virginia, we are happy to listen.
Beyond Virginia!
I have a meeting set for this Saturday with Four Directions.
Last Friday we met with one of the folks from Worker Power (boots on the ground in GA and AZ in 2022)
And I’ve reached out to Voting Access for All.
Generally speaking, I’m thinking we’ll want to raise money for some of the folks we have already identified and supported in the past, and support some new groups, as well!
We’re looking into opportunities to help groups related to Youth turnout – how do you guys feel about that? It’s a bit of a break from our focus in the past. On the other hand, young voters are much more diverse than in the past, and we’re looking for opportunities with HBCUs, so maybe it’s not much of a break at all?
Open thread.
Alison Rose
OMG that video was amazing!! God…as much as I hate having had to live through TIFG, I am so glad I also got to be here to see Obama’s story
Also, it’s okay WG, he was indeed hot, and still is.
bbleh
One voice can change a room. And if a voice can change a room, it can change a city…
“For want of a nail, the shoe was lost…”
Almost Retired
Another momentum advantage the Dems have in 2023 in Virginia vs. 2021 is the Dodds decision, which one would think would sway more voters than the bogus scary school book controversy of 2021. Part of me thinks that Youngkin is secretly hoping the Republicans don’t gain a trifecta. Then he’d lose any excuse for not enacting the nonsense that would obliterate his “moderate” image. In this case, I’m happy to make him happy and give the General Assembly to the Democrats!
WaterGirl
@Alison Rose: I still have my Fired Up and Ready to Go red t-shirt from when I worked for the campaign in Iowa ahead of the Jan 2008 primary.
Such exciting and hopeful times. If we can get all 3 branches in 2024, maybe we can start to feel like that again!
WaterGirl
@bbleh: That’s the flip side!
hrprogressive
Hello – Virginian here, from said Hampton Roads area. To the extent the BJ community can help ensure our purplish metro can go more blue, the better. Elaine Luria was my Rep in VA-02 till she narrowly lost to an (R), and Luria did a great job during the Jan 6 public hearings.
Especially if we can beat back the GOP in the statehouse, that would be very helpful.
I can try to circle back with maybe some more “targeting” and/or candidates later, but as a denizen, wanted to chime in.
WaterGirl
This post might be better as a daytime post. If that turns out to be right, I will post this again, much earlier in the day, tomorrow.
Timing is everything!
bbleh
@WaterGirl: same point though. It might seem small, but it can make all the difference. One voice might seem small, but that’s no reason not to add it. Very much the opposite.
WaterGirl
@hrprogressive: Glad to see this!
Also feel free to send me an email message with candidate or targeting ideas! Do you know how to reach me by email?
Almost Retired
@hrprogressive: Are you getting deluged with television ads and mailers yet?
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
@WaterGirl: You are a powerhouse~!
Every penny of my giving last cycle was through the BJ posts and links. Honestly I probably can’t give as much this time around but I’m inspired by and grateful for all the thought and strategery you put into this.
Geminid
I would suggest Door #2- holding fire for a couple weeks.
bbleh
@hrprogressive: @WaterGirl: from an outside perspective, if the criterion is “bang for the buck” (which I think is a good one), then Hampton Roads seems like a good bet. Districts with a heavy military presence have shown clear and unexpected “blue” trends (see, I think it was, The Economist), for which I can think of all sorts of possible reasons, eg Trump’s obvious fakery re service and Biden’s obvious genuineness, the way the Republicans have fked over Veterans Affairs generally, possibly also Biden’s willingness to take hard decisions (eg how to withdraw from Afghanistan), and — less important but very salient — the ridiculous game-playing by Tuberville.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: What’s your thinking that led you to door #2?
Cheryl from Maryland
Door #1. Fired Up and Ready 2 Go! Here’s the link to my VA postcards group – I’ve already done 200 postcards – https://postcards4va.com/.
mrmoshpotato
I’m fired up!
Also fired up for this weekend’s football and house-sitting!
WaterGirl
@Cheryl from Maryland: Wow, 200 postcards! That’s awesome.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: I can’t recall… it seems like you might live in VA. Is that right?
Fake Irishman
I would agree with your assessment of Door 1: Virginia is the big prize we can influence with two legislative chambers up for grabs and small races are our thing. LA gov is a long shot and KY gov I don’t think we necessarily make a difference — and even if we win both, they almost certainly will be facing supermajorities.
other thing I can think of is building power for 2024 with the groups we’ve worked with before, as you alluded to above.
There’s also a PA Supreme Court race that might be worth a look and a few NH specials that could flip the lower chamber.
Beyond that, maybe a few school board or city council races in a few key areas?
Maxim
I am also leaning toward door #2. If a lot of other money is already going to be spent there, then maybe we can best target our funds elsewhere, but postcards could still be useful. But if someone with more close-up knowledge of the area can tell us that our giving could still make a difference in some specific races, then we could do those and not wait.
Also, that fired-up video got me all emotional.
Honus
@WaterGirl: he does. About 15 miles from me.
Ben Vernia
Obama in Virginia on Election Eve in 2008 reminds me that I was in eastern Ohio working on the campaign then, and not in Virginia, where I live. In late summer, I had asked Eric Holder (name-drop alert) if the campaign needed a legal volunteer somewhere, and I got posted to Canton, because of course Virginia was not in play for the Democrats. It’s funny/heartbreaking now that we won Ohio, but then that state took a hard turn towards stupid and hasn’t looked back.
Virginia is winnable, though. The GOP convinced itself that Youngkin’s got the secret formula, when in fact, he happened to run during a post-pandemic funk against a guy (Terry McAuliffe) whose picture appears next to the definition of “Establishment” in the dictionary.
H.E.Wolf
I’m an Edith Childs Democrat for this election cycle: fired up and ready to go!
I’ll ask my cousin in northern VA (who’s very plugged-in to the Democratic Party there) for recommendations for possible Jackal Action….
Another Scott
Gov. Fuzzy Vest isn’t on the ballot – directly – but he’s hoping to run for higher office eventually. He’s been campaigning outside the state, trying to build up chits to call in later. Democrats keeping the Virginia Senate and flipping the House of Delegates will take wind out of his sails and help end his political career before he can do more damage.
I’ll be making more donations to Virginia races this weekend. I’ll try to make time for postcards, also too. B-J targeting close/flippable seats is a good idea. We can’t compete with Dominion on the overall donation front, but we can still make a difference.
Thanks, WG.
Cheers,
Scott.
Honus
Here in Albemarle we have Scalia’s daughter running for school board. All her kids are in private school.
WaterGirl
@Honus: That’s enraging.
Yarrow
I can’t speak to where to spend money but this post reminded me that I saw a Doug Bergum commercial on TV this morning. If you don’t know who he is, he’s the Gov of North Dakota and is running in the Republican primary for president. The primary isn’t until next year. I know he’s rich but this is light your money on fire level of waste.
WaterGirl
@Yarrow:
Works for me!
Mousebumples
I’m on board with supporting GOTV – if we can get regional enough, I’d suggest focus on areas with tossup/flippable state seats and that also have tossup/flippable US House seats.
And yes to postcards! Tuesday/Saturday posts again, maybe?
Czar Chasm
I support Door #1, but I’m biased because..
I’m running for Treasurer in Fluvanna County.
http://linktr.ee/bryan4treasurer
Here in rural counties, we need all the help we can get. I’ve been part of our County Administration for 6 years, and want to get our Treasury modernized & running smoothly (We still can’t pay with a credit card for anything due to our county). My challenge is that most of my support network is outside our county, so I’ve been a one-man show for a lot of campaign tasks. I have a plan for the last few weeks before Election Day, but I’m $3000 shy, & my donors are all tapped out.
So yeah, Door #1.
Honus
@Ben Vernia: that Virginia is winnable is an understatement. Youngkin was the first republican to win a statewide election in Virginia in 12 years. Democrats handily carried Virginia in the last four presidential elections. Obama twice, Hilary and Biden. This after not voting for a democrat since LBJ. The state was so badly gerrymandered after the 2010 election that the congressional delegation was 9-2 republican until 2018 when the reaction to trump resulted in a 6-5 democratic slate, even with the gerrymandered districts. This year the maps were redrawn and are much fairer. I also think that like trump, Youngkin showing his true colors as governor has motivated democrats and alienated moderate suburban moms fooled by his fleece vest two years ago. I’m optimistic.
Honus
@WaterGirl: she wants to empower parents of course.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: Not many people chimed in when I put the post up asking about postcards, but I think we can try Tuesdays and Saturdays and see who shows up.
Almost Retired
@Honus: Great background and insight. What’s your thought on the three doors above?
WaterGirl
@Honus: Of course she does. //
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: I’ve got a busy work day tomorrow, but I’ll try to post about it in threads. Could probably do Ohio or Virginia postcards.
7 pm central for both days? I think I can make that work this weekend, or we can just start on Tuesday?
Honus
@WaterGirl: Allison Spillman, her opponent, could really use some money. Scalia has about a million yard signs financed by a ton of out of state money. Allison is catching up though, as people become aware of the candidates. Albemarle parents generally are proud of their schools and don’t want them destroyed by vouchers.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: I think we can start on Saturday, but we’ll need to get the word out.
I heard back from the OH people today – the ones that took a LOT of Voces addresses for the Supreme Court race and other elections in Wisconsin. They are going to send me their script.
WaterGirl
@Honus: So much rich people money.
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: Sounds good. I’ll try to pop in the morning thread and get people together, hopefully.
Another Scott
@Czar Chasm: I got an “internal server error” initially, then your link started working.
Donated.
Good luck, and thanks for stepping up and letting us know!
Cheers,
Scott.
rekoob
@Honus: @WaterGirl: @Czar Chasm: @Geminid: Born in Virginia, grew up there (Richmond), lived elsewhere, came back and moved away in 2022. A quirk of Virginia politics is that most cities are independent from their surrounding counties, so that Albemarle and Fluvanna, which surround the city of Charlottesville (home to Mr. Jefferson’s Academical Village), can be sharply different from their nearby population centers. The good news is that the University’s community has expanded into those counties, which means that there’s a reasonable chance that wiser heads will prevail.
I’m with Geminid — start with postcards, add money in early October if it looks like we’re struggling.
Blue Virginia has some of the best reporting:
Blue Virginia
Czar Chasm
@Another Scott: THANK YOU!
For everyone else: Fluvanna County is in central Virginia, just southeast of Charlottesville (which is surrounded by Albemarle County).
@Honus is correct: That’s a needed school board seat, as Albemarle has pockets of conservatives that vote people who wreak havoc on their School Board. Fluvanna is in the same situation: We have two contested school board seats this election cycle, and we need to win both if we don’t want our schools to go the way of Florida or Texas.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Fir one thing, money in the first week of October will still have sn impact. For another, I have a hunch that a lot money is flowing to Democratic candidates right now.
I feel like there is an enthusiasm gap that favors Democrats. Also, people are starting to understand that Virginia is now the southern-most state in the Southeast where abortion is legal, and that the safety of women in at least five other states is riding on these elections.
So our financial efforts might have only a relatively marginal impact. I think that featuring Democratic candidates has a value beyond the dollars, for the knowledge we gain, but postcards cover that base as well.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Yes, I live in Greene County, Virginia, about 25 miles north of Charlottesville and 35 miles east of Harrisonburg.
Ed. And about 15 miles north of Honus over in gentrified Free Union. Why don’t you come out and visit some Sunday, Honus?
After Brunch of course.
Lapassionara
That Virginia’s elections are in an off year was important in 2017, as those of us suffering from PTSD after November 2016 were encouraged by the gains Democrats made in the Virginia statehouse in 2017. IIRC, the house did not get In Democratic control, but only because one of the candidates lost a coin flip with her opponent. The elections were that close, and then 2 years later, there was more good news from Virginia. I’m for helping in whatever way seems best. If successful, the timing helps build momentum for 2024.
Czar Chasm
@Geminid: That sounds like you’re over in Stanardsville, Lydia, or Dyke.
Czar Chasm
@Lapassionara: That is similar to what I have been telling the local groups here that have been supporting me: Being involved with local campaigns here is good practice for the 2024 federal races, and allows one to figure out if working on a campaign truly does interest them.
Geminid
@Czar Chasm: I live on Amicus Road between Swift Run and the Yoga studio. I just got back from Stanardsville, which is 5 miles to the north.
But I vote at the Dyke Volunteer Fire Department.
WaterGirl
I appreciate all the thoughtful comments and suggestions. I’ll check for more feedback in the morning. And I’ll likely repost the thread for the day shift tomorrow. :-)
H.E.Wolf
@WaterGirl:
Coming back online just long enough to say thank you for this post (and its repeat performance tomorrow) – and thank you also for all the details in the 2nd half of the post, regarding potential plans of action for us jackals. Superb presentation! Didn’t think I could be MORE fired up… but I now am!
BlueGuitarist
@Mousebumples:
My favorite songs!
BlueGuitarist
@WaterGirl:
fired up!!
But not quite ready to go, as soon as I can will do some research and report.
WaterGirl
Wednesday night comments thru #53. Thursday daytime input starts at #55.
Czar Chasm
I want to emphasize how critical it is to support the state legislature races in Virginia. Blue/Progressive candidates in contested races have their need to win enhanced by the fact that there are multiple races in both state chambers that are uncontested because the Democratic Party either chose not to run someone, or the candidate dropped out early because they felt disheartened by the uphill battle they faced: In fact, both situations occurred with the state legislature races for my county.
It also has an unintended consequence: This is likely to depress voter turnout in localities covered by these uncontested races, which negatively impacts multiple county races (e.g. my race is the only countywide one). Because of this, it becomes even more challenging to GOTV in county districts that don’t have a Board election this cycle.
SUPPORT VIRGINIA
(and me, if at all possible)
DOOR #1
Alison Rose
I don’t have the ability to help financially, but I wonder if a mix of Door #1 and #2 might work? Perhaps identify some of the lesser-known candidates or ones with a more uphill battle to direct funds to right away, but also keep an eye on other races to see if there are more who might need the help.
And postcards always seem like a good idea.
mrmoshpotato
My mom occasionally sends me jokes she hears on the radio.
I got my Dad a DNA test for Father’s Day.
Good news – l don’t have to buy him Father’s Day gifts any longer.
Redshift
Virginia native here – I’d say Door #1, finding winnable races, if we can, that aren’t the ones that everyone is shoveling money toward. I don’t have any particular expertise with that, but I’ll see what I can do. Since I’m in nearly the safest part of Northern Virginia, the areas we’d want to target aren’t ones I’m personally familiar with.
Blue Virginia had posts back in March about competitive districts based on recent elections (before the primaries, so the specific candidate wasn’t yet known for many):
State Senate
House of Delegates
Redshift
My theory about Youngkin is that our big turnout in the previous two legislative elections was TFG driving a lot of Democrats who don’t normally vote in off-year elections to do something, and after Biden was elected a good chunk of those people believed the threat was averted and the problem was solved, so they didn’t come out the next year. (If Youngkin had been an open MAGAt instead of a closet one, that might have been different.)
I’m hoping that will swing the other way somewhat this year, with TFG very definitely not being over, plus Dobbs, plus our state GOPers all using their offices to pursue wingnut conspiracy theories and burnish their resumes instead of governing for the good of everyone.
SuzieC
Door #1. And for beyond Virginia, please support Ohio Issue 1, the Repro Rights Amendment.
Redshift
@Almost Retired:
The only ones I’m getting blanketed with are for the 31st State Senate district out in Loudoun County. Russet Perry is our candidate, and she has some good ads, but we get a lot more from her business-guy-with-inherited-money-and-no-governing-experience opponent, and they’re really annoying.
I would imagine she’s getting enough funding that the campaign should only be on our radar for postcards, not funding, but I really want to see that jerk get stomped in November.
WaterGirl
@Czar Chasm: How many seats would you say are uncontested this time around?
WaterGirl
@mrmoshpotato: ha!
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Burn it all, start with the largest stockpiles and work your way down
ETA: And door number one. My understanding is early voting already started. Is there a way we can start slow, watch, and shift as needed?
WaterGirl
@Redshift: The ones we are thinking of targeting are definitely winnable.
I know this was a long text, so I will copy this here:
H.E.Wolf
@mrmoshpotato:
https://genius.com/Buffy-sainte-marie-johnny-be-fair-lyrics
;-)
H.E.Wolf
On-topic: It isn’t our task to worry… it’s our task to do a part of the work to the best of our abilities (unique to each person), and to remember that we are joined by others.
It’s amazing how much power is generated when we each take one small, concrete action, in solidarity with other people we may never meet.
There are more choices than just “solve it” or “sit on the sidelines”. A good middle course is “set to work”… which is something that Balloon Juice peeps do very well.
gene108
New Jersey also has off-off year state legislator elections this year.
Democrats got their asses handed to them in parts of NJ in 2021.
Be nice to get some attention to pickup lost seats.
The Republican over performance in NJ (and VA) is part of what led to the prognostication of a Red Wave in 2022.
Splitting Image
@Yarrow:
Someone should have introduced him to NFTs. He might have stayed out of politics altogether.
WaterGirl
@gene108: Who has the majority in each of the NJ statehouses?
Caphilldcne
@Czar Chasm: donated
Czar Chasm
@Caphilldcne: THANK YOU!!!