This happened overnight:
(CNN) On a day of drama that recalled the pandemonium inside the Trump White House, the ex-president’s camp floated rumors of his potential first visit to the US Capitol since his mob ransacked it on January 6, 2021. Then Trump teased the possibility that he could even step in as speaker himself on an interim basis.
But the ex-president’s biggest bombshell was still to come – shortly after midnight, he endorsed Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan for the job.
“He will be a GREAT Speaker of the House, & has my Complete & Total Endorsement!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social network in a post that spent more time lauding Jordan’s prowess as a student wrestler than his political career.
Jordan as speaker would be embarrassing for America and damaging to our allies, especially Ukraine since Jordan is a Putinist. But in crass political terms, a Jordan speakership might be good for Democrats because Jordan is a histrionic moron — a lumbering, shouting, jacketless illustration of the “extreme MAGA Republicans” the president has been campaigning against for the past two years.
If the House GOP obeys Trump and elevates Jordan, perhaps even normies will begin to understand that one of our two viable political parties is a cult. Do you think this endorsement will put Jordan over the top?
On The Road – lashonharangue – Hiking in Montana – Part 2
Baud
Test of wills for for the so-called GOP moderates.
Nothing is more inscrutable than the normie mind, so who knows?
I blame Democrats.
Shalimar
I think the endorsement puts a lot more pressure on Republican House members to rally around Jordan. Getting over the top is still a monumental task because any random 5 people who hate you can keep you from the job. And there are some Republican House members who hate Jordan.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Yeah, I gotta think this is a most unwelcome development for the so-called moderates. Experience has taught me to distrust my initial instincts on how things will play out politically, but we’ve seen Jordan in action. He’s a truculent extremist, not particularly bright and deeply worshipful of Trump. I don’t see this going well for Repubs.
p.a.
He couldn’t control a locker room. He’s going to control that caucus?
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊😊😊
Spanky
@Baud:
Seconded. Why can’t these feckless Dems save the Republican Party?
Mr. Bemused Senior
Josh Marshall makes the point that Jordan comes with serious baggage (“gym” for one thing).
Don’t throw me in the briar patch!
We’ll see just how incompetent the GOP is. So far signs point to “very.”
Mr. Bemused Senior
@rikyrah: Good morning.
Spanky
Well it will be, as usual, interesting. If a Gym leadership becomes inevitable, will that drive any representatives from purple districts over to Jeffries? Normally it’s not worth even asking that question, but normal left town a long time ago.
bbleh
No question this will seal the deal. He was already the more preferred of the two declared candidates, and now the Prophet has anointed him. The cake is baked. The “moderates” will fall in line without so much as a baa of protest.
It’s good in that it avoids the scenario of a long period with no Speaker and therefore no business done. And as noted, it will certainly heighten the contradictions. Jordan is no smarter than Qevin, and he’s gonna be out, loud, and proud with the MAGA stupidity and ODD. It’s gonna be almost as hard to ignore as TIFG. (In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jimmy J. has already started to think about running for President in 2028).
But other than that, I don’t think it’s good for Dems, because it makes a shutdown almost inevitable. The MAGAts have been spoiling for a big fight for a long time, and he’s very much one of them. They’ll make ridiculous demands, angrily refuse even to negotiate much less compromise, loudly blame everyone else for the shutdown, and then stomp upstairs to their room and SLAM the door. Only question is, how long until they come out pouting because they’re hungry.
Trivia Man
It will be a challenge for Jim “Gym” Jordan – how can he still be the lead on the Judiciary committee? I thought SOH isn’t on any committee.
maybe he’s counting on the stenographer pool to use even more of his GOTCHA! sound bites with even less context or “evidence”.
Freemark
One thing, I think this guarantees an even bigger shit show than I thought it would be. It’s gone from an Everest sized shit show to an Olympus Mons sized shit show.
A Good Woman
I think it puts pressure on the non-Freedom Caucus members to fall in line with the Mango Menace. I fear that they will. The result, if it is Jordan, will be disastrous for us and also the Ukrainians. Of course it will likely be disastrous no matter who gets the gavel.
At this point I hope 2024 is a Dem blowout and they don’t blow the opportunity.
oldster
“…perhaps even normies will begin to understand that one of our two viable political parties is a cult.”
Perhaps. But perhaps Peak Wingnut will never come.
Suzanne
I don’t know what normies will think. Most of them likely don’t know who Jordan is.
What I do think, tho, is that being a GOP Speaker is a career-killer.
At some point — and I will be the first to admit that I thought that point would have come by now — the old-skool GOP will be strong enough to sideline the MAGAs. Many of them know that MAGA is toxic and they are losing winnable elections. Jordan doesn’t advance this cause.
schrodingers_cat
Is normies a code for white people who still vote for Republicans while pretending to be above it all? Because normies of other demographics get it. For example husband kitteh, who definitely is a normie as in he doesn’t fixate on political minutia like we do here. But he would never ever even consider voting Republican. The only demographic Rs win nationally is white people and have a lock on.
Rs got 57% of the white vote in 2022. So the % of the white vote Rs get in the south and mountain west is higher than that
So these people who voted for Rs after Jan 6 insurrection are not going to be deterred by a minor thing such as Rs nominating a completely unsuitable person like Jim Jordan as the speaker.
Tony Jay
Is Jordan the one who looks like Beavis after thirty years of working in a Blockbusters storage depot while living on a diet of meth-amphetamine and bath-salts?
BTW – Googling ‘Gym Jordan’ brings normies straight to the nub of his unsuitability for any post more prestigious than “guy who wheels around the library trolley in a cut-price correctional institution”. This is a good thing and he should henceforth never be allowed to besmirch the honourable prenom of Messieurs Kirk, Carrey and Rockford. ‘Gym’ he is.
And yes, he is that Jordan. Weird looking fucker. Decent height, though. /s
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
lowtechcyclist
@bbleh:
I don’t think a shutdown hurts the Dems. But I worry that Ukraine gets fucked as a side-effect of this whole business.
I wasn’t that concerned when the shutdown was avoided with a bill that didn’t have aid for Ukraine. Mostly, I figured that the Dem leadership had a plan for that. Now I see there is no plan.
One plausible plan, once Gaetz filed his Motion to Vacate, was telling Qevin that we’d save his ass this time, but unless Ukraine aid made it through the House tout suite, we’d make sure Gaetz knew the next MtV would be backed by the entire Dem caucus.
Maybe we’d still find ourselves right back here, just after a short delay. But Qevin has no spine, so there’d be a pretty good shot at getting it done.
Now it’s hard to see a route to getting Ukraine aid through the House, short of five vulnerable Rethugs voting for Jeffries for Speaker, and I might as well ask for a pony while I’m at it.
Matt McIrvin
@Mr. Bemused Senior: There’s a hallowed tradition of sex criminals serving as Republican Speaker of the House.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Good point. Most people (voters) don’t pay as much attention as we do but they do know how to Google.
Another Scott
TIFG is a chaos agent, among other things. “American carnage”, “only I can fix it”, etc. He wants a shutdown. Of course he wants an incompetent bomb thrower as Speaker, and to be able to claim credit.
Moscow Mitch was right to mostly ignore him.
Dunno what the GQP House will do, but it’s yet another test for them. Will they start to leave the cult?? Ultimately, politicians want to win elections…
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
I think that House Republicans needed to as much as possible contain this Speaker fight within their caucus and not have it nationalized as an intra-party fight. But Trump wants to assert dominance and also maintain his spurious reputation as dealmaker.
He’s backing a discreditable man, though, and there will be more shoes dropping regarding Jordan’s role in covering up sexual assaults at The University of Ohio- especially if Jordan is elected Speaker.
So far, Trump’s statement, “I alone can fix it” has proven to be, “I alone can wreck it.”
bbleh
@Trivia Man: he probably will, and under the rules he should, but transgression is another hallmark of
adolescentsMAGAts, so maybe not.@Suzanne: I’ve long hoped that about the “old skool” GOP, but there doesn’t seem to be much of it left, and what is left has retreated to their gated communities to count their money. As long as they get their tax and regulatory cuts, I think they’re content to stay out of the culture wars. They’re becoming almost like the fundamentalists used to be — sticking with their own and staying out of politics. And in the near term, a shutdown will actually be good for them — less regulation, less enforcement, and probably eventually a recession that will weaken labor and keep inflation down. If that costs them a few purple districts, well so what: they’ve got the Supreme Court now, and they’ll be stronger in the Senate after ’24.
@lowtechcyclist: my problem with a shutdown is, I think it almost inevitably will cause a recession, which will hurt Biden because normies think the President controls the economy. Now imo Teh Economee is almost impossibly strong right now, so a mild recession might not damage things too badly, but I’d still prefer we didn’t have one, not least because it hurts the most vulnerable worst and fastest.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Matt McIrvin: yes and the story always has the same ending.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Normie white people are more important because of their numbers and geographic location. But a normies is generally someone who doesn’t react to day to day events and is not a reliable voter.
Frankensteinbeck
@schrodingers_cat:
A bit of that. There are a fair number of actual swing voters. I think more it’s people who don’t reliably bother to vote because they don’t think politics affects them much. I suspect that group leans white , yes, but I don’t know.
And always beware anecdata.
lowtechcyclist
@schrodingers_cat:
No, it’s code for people who pay way less attention to politics than we do.
For instance, I was talking with a woman about the prospective shutdown last Friday night at my local theater group while we were getting ready for showtime. She asked how long a shutdown would last – one week? Two? She had no idea that there wasn’t a prescribed length, that the shutdown would last until Congress passed legislation to fund the government.
That’s what it means to be a normie.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Thanks for the clarification. Yes we should focus on the non-voters of all demographics and especially white demographics because of the sheer numbers as you rightly point out. We should target non-voting women normie voters because Rs are putting their lives ( or their daughters/nieces etc) at risk.
randy khan
If the 2022 elections are any indication, Trump’s endorsement means that Jordan will lose.
Okay, with that cheap joke out of the way, I have no idea whether that will put Jordan over the top. But he would not be an improvement over McCarthy if he wins, so that’s a problem.
Anyway
@Spanky:
Magic eight ball says No. One thing internalized by Rthugs is Libs are evil and working with Ds is not even a consideration.
schrodingers_cat
@Frankensteinbeck: I think your guess may be right. In the Indian context those whose fees are hurt when you discuss BJP’s politics is almost always privileged upper caste folks.
When you are a minority under attack you can’t afford to be politically unaware. T’s election made my normie Mr. Kitteh become interested in politics. Still not to the level I am but much more than before 2016.
Muslims in India, Dalits in India, Black people, Jewish people, immigrants we cannot afford to be like babes in the woods pretending like politics doesn’t affect us.
MazeDancer
The media will cover Jordan relentlessly. Trying to normalize him. Promoting being Pro-Putin.
Maybe the NY GOP will wake up, defy Trump, but doubtful.
kalakal
One plus I can see is that it will wreck Gym’s career like it has that of every GOP speaker since at least Boehner’s. It’s a impossible job, the GOP caucus isn’t in disarray, it’s in Brownian motion.
He’s widely disliked, stubborn, stupid, has zero personnel management skills, all combined with a self estimation of his abilities at severe odds with reality
It’ll be a total shitshow, the House will be completely dysfunctional, unable to pass anything that will pass the Senate. If he’s elected the chances of the Dems regaining the House will soar. He’ll be a disaster for himself, the GOP, and the country. To first two I say good. I worry for the last. If he’s elected the next election can’t come soon enough
jonas
They’re going to fall in line and elect Jordan and he’s going to be every bit as awful as we think. There are no moderate Republicans. There are no courageous Republicans.
lowtechcyclist
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
The problem isn’t the ending, it’s how long the story runs, and what happens in the middle part.
ETA: Sorry if I’m coming across like Eeyore this morning. I certainly feel like an Eeyore today.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@kalakal: Until your last couple of sentences, you were cheering me up.
jonas
If you approach it as an actual job with the responsibility of getting work done for the country, yes. If you largely see it as a stage from which you can throw MAGA tantrums and fling poop at the media and Democrats and just generally fuck around, then it can be a lot of fun! Especially if you know Trump is tuning in!
Marleedog
There might be some mewling mouth noises of protest from the “moderates” in their caucus, but, Republicans always fall in line. Authoritarian-friendly types tend to do that. His sexual offender adjacent past has not hindered him so far and it won’t now, so Jim Jordan it most likely is.
Sadly to the detriment of the nation in the short and medium turn, the harm may be irreparable.
Not much of a silver lining to this, it looks like another government shutdown, another debt limit crisis, and it is not hard to imagine things on the international front spiraling out of control.
One can only hope that this leads to crushing electoral for them next year.
Baud
@bbleh:
I know people think this. But outside the friendly confines of Balloon Juice, I don’t think it’s helpful to say this, because when you say this
Normies here this
YMMV
Mr. Bemused Senior
@lowtechcyclist: true. Thing is, we can’t control it. Best we (not us here, Dems in Congress) can do is mitigate the damage.
Voters created this situation, helped along by numerous factors we talk about all the time. Only solution is to vote the bastards out.
artem1s
As OAC so eloquently pointed out, they are all grown up now, it’s not our job to be their mommies or even fret about whether they are safe at home after dark (it’s 10 PM, do you know where your R-congresscritter is?). The GQP will do whatever they do. There will be advantages and disadvantages for Dems. I’m confident in Biden, Schumer, Jeffries and their staff’s abilities to figure it out, go with the flow, and pounce when opportunities present themselves.
I predict Gym Jordan may regret calling close attention to himself as so many others who have played with MAGAtism, FA with TIFG, and FO.
Baud
@artem1s:
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
Seconded.
Eunicecycle
Gym cannot run a committee without it devolving into a shit show. Gym as Speaker of the House? I am without appropriate metaphors. But it can’t be good for a lot of people in this country in the short run and that scares me.
Sloegin
Long shutdown just before the Thanksgiving holidays is now confirmed, methinks. And with a moron like Gym in charge who doesn’t see or understand what’s coming, can’t envision how it will go down, and even if he did, probably doesn’t care.
schrodingers_cat
I remember reading that in 2016 T bought a lot of non-voters in R tent. Are they still with the R party or have they left?
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I am not so sure that Democratic leadership has no plan regarding military aid for Ukraine. For one thing, I expect they have the means to make a Petition to Discharge stick. Rep. Gallego talked about this back in January, in an interview with a defense-related news site.
There are also other ways to skin this cat. Of the four Congressional caucuses, the Senate Democrats are solidly behind aid and ~2/3rds of Senate Republicans are, while House Democrats are united also.The House Republicans differ from their Senate counterparts in that only ~1/3 of them are Ukraine supporters.
This process will likely turn out like the Debt Ceiling matter: a perilous stand-off where greater Congressional numbers prevail in the end over the outnumbered soreheads in the Republican House caucus. It will then become an intra-party Republican problem, and one of many.
schrodingers_cat
Jim Jordan won’t last as the Speaker for very long even if he is elected. That’s my prediction. He will be the Liz Truss of Speakers.
Suzanne
@bbleh:
Well, yeah. But that depends on maintaining power. That means winning enough elections. Throwing away winnable elections is not a path to tax cuts. That’s why they can’t opt out.
kalakal
@artem1s:
Absolutely.
jonas
You’re right. He would be way worse. He’s stupid. He’s belligerent. He has absolutely no interest in making anything work and he’s sure as hell not going to do a damn thing to work with either Biden or the Senate. I think Scalise, as awful as he is politically, at least knows how things work and would get something done. Jordan will just blow everything up, which is why Trump wants him in there.
brendancalling
Can I just say how much I’m enjoying the way Murc’s Law is playing out in real time? It’s freaking insane.
Baud
@Suzanne: I think they’re also more concerned about labor’s power than they have been in a long time.
Frankensteinbeck
@Marleedog:
They haven’t been lately.
This will certainly be a clear test of Trump’s power over the House. If Jordan, who is controversial with his colleagues, sails to victory, it will definitely be because of Trump. If we get the same shit show as last time, then no, they don’t follow Trump. If the split is wide, then they not only don’t follow Trump, they give not one shit what he says.
We’ll have to see. I don’t think we’ll know for sure until voting starts, then the first vote should make it clear.
frosty
Rim shot!
Mr. Bemused Senior
@schrodingers_cat: I will venture a prediction: publicity of the Trump trials will carve away his support. Not the die-hards of course, but a substantial fraction.
Betty Cracker
@Marleedog: I agree Jordan’s sex offender-adjacent past won’t hurt him with Repubs, but maybe elevating him to the national stage will open that can of worms again. Some of the OSU victims have spoken out publicly and may do so again. It might even remind older voters that the longest serving GOP House speaker, also elevated during a crisis in that caucus, was the convicted pedophile Denny Hastert.
lowtechcyclist
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
Voting for the MtV was mitigating the damage? That was the one thing the Dems could control: how they were going to play that.
Yeah I know, they had to stand up for themselves and blah blah blah. I just don’t think they thought this through.
ISTM that we’re in far worse a shitshow now than we were just a few days ago.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Yesterday, the Pod Save America guys interviewed Cassidy Hutchison. At the end, they asked her to comment on the speaker’s race since she’d worked with these people, including having interned for Steve Scalise. She said Jordan was dishonest and would be a bad pick.
Eunicecycle
@jonas: it’s exactly why Trump endorsed Gym. I can’t remember if we discussed this here, but the scuttlebutt is Kevin lost his job because he didn’t shut down the government and Trump wanted it shut down. Kevin tried by springing the CR on Dems with no notice, figuring they would vote no. But they didn’t. So Kevin had to go.
Betty Cracker
@lowtechcyclist: The GOP crazies were already running McCarthy. Propping him up only ensured that the face of GOP power had a better haircut and more amiable TV manner.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist: I think they thought this through and did the right thing. If we want to break the abuser paradigm, we have to stop acting like the abused.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@lowtechcyclist: you have to play the hand that’s dealt. My opinion (worth what you paid for it): they made the right choice.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
One big difference between Ukraine aid and the debt ceiling was that the debt ceiling did at least have a deadline that Congress was up against. There’s nothing like that with Ukraine that forces the Rethugs to act or things will blow up in their faces.
Hopefully we can get five GOPers to sign off on the discharge petition. Right now while there is no Speaker may be the best time for it. I doubt that Patrick McHenry has anyone quivering in their boots.
Geminid
@Baud: A lot of normies are reliable voters. An example would be my friend Stephanie. Stephanie will watch the most mediocre sportsball game before she’ll watch the most excellent politics program, but she is reliable a Democratic voter as anyone here. Stephanie is a very shrewd observer and does not need blogs or podcasts to tell her who the assholes are.
Betty Cracker
Reading from Le Post:
Trivia Man
My long shot dark horse pick: the eminence grise himself… Paul Ryan.
he still fancies himself presidential and craves to be influential. He could grandstand and pontificate to his heart’s content without ever casting a vote on the record.
jonas
@Mr. Bemused Senior: There is no such thing as a Trump supporter who thinks “Well, I’ll stand by him now, but if more disconcerting news about him comes out at one of his trials, I’m bailing.”
It’s not a political movement, it’s a cult. I don’t think the trials are really going to move the needle at all and Democrats shouldn’t assume they will. He will go on trial. He’ll probably be convicted. He’ll still be the Republican nominee.
jonas
@Trivia Man: My impression from hearing Paul Ryan talk recently is that he would not take that job again for anything in the world, particularly with that Freedumb Caucus still running the show.
Mr. Bemused Senior
I agree. But when it comes to casting a vote there are limited options. I’m talking about the margins, not the core.
We’ll see. I’m the optimist in our family.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
So they should have taken control in the manner I suggested upthread: tell Qevin that if he doesn’t put a Ukraine bill on the floor ASAP, then they’ll vote for the MtV the next time.
As long as they follow through, that’s not acting like the abused. That’s taking fucking control and doing what needs to be done. Maybe Qevin gives in and puts the Ukraine bill on the floor. That’s a win. And if he still acts like a shitheel after Ukraine aid gets passed, we can kick his butt out then. Or maybe he doesn’t put Ukraine aid on the floor, and we kick his butt out then. That’s as much of a win as where we are now.
But burning down the house in response to abuse is what you do when you’ve lost all other hope. I sure didn’t think we were there yet
ETA: And yes, this is burning down the house. We have no idea how long we’ll go without a functioning legislative branch. And that includes a potential Gym Speakership.
eclare
@schrodingers_cat:
I should put a head of lettuce on my shopping list next week.
jonas
@Betty Cracker: Uh oh. Fed’s not going to like that.
SiubhanDuinne
@Geminid:
The Ohio State University, I’m pretty sure. But I think you’re right that more unsavoury details will emerge.
Geminid
@schrodingers_cat: The new voters Trump brought in are mostly still there, I think. But many of them are at best ambivalent about the party and are likely to drift away once Trump’s elective political career is over. Some will go to their graves muttering that they voted Republican in order to make America great again, but then the RINOs stabbed Trump in the back and they never voted again.
eclare
@kalakal:
Wasn’t George Clooney backing some documentary about Gym? I wonder if that is still in production?
jonas
@Mr. Bemused Senior: I don’t think he can win nationally ever again. As messed up as the country is, and as much as people are still blaming Biden for $6 eggs, I don’t think most people want to see Trump president again and being a convicted felon won’t help. The Republicans will never nominate anyone else, though.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I think that House Ukraine advocates could get 50 Republicans to sign a discharge petition. We may get a chance to see if this is so.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist: I actually agree with AOC that the Dems did the right thing. They shouldn’t have filed a motion to vacate, of course, but once it came time to having to vote for it, they voted the right way.
Baud
@Geminid: We’re not really concerned about reliable blue voters, even if they don’t pay attention to politics.
Suzanne
@Baud:
Agreed.
And they are aware that their brand is toxic with younger voters. That mattered in 2022, and they know that party ID is sticky. Younger voters become middle-age voters. There are plenty of Neutral Evil Republicans who know that MAGA is a problem for them.
Geminid
@Trivia Man: In 2018, Paul Ryan could see the trainwreck coming and stepped away from the House. The trainwreck is not over, and Ryan’s not going to step back in and get bonked on the head with locomotive fragments. I think Ryan does not consider his political career over.
There could be other retired Republican House members willing to become Speaker, and Jeffries might throw his caucus behind the right one if Jeffries thought it served Democratic interests. But that eventuality is a ways off, and Republicans would have to deadlock over a number of votes for it to be possible, I think.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: I think there are plenty of Black and Latine normies.
Geminid
@SiubhanDuinne: Thank you for the correction. I know it’s Ohio State, but I got sloppy and my copy editor was inattentive as usual. I would have fired him long ago except he’s family.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: About 3 days before the vote on the CR nearly everyone was convinced that there was going to be a shutdown on October 1 because there was no other path.
Things don’t change until they do.
I was surprised that the House Democrats picked the path they did on the Qevin vote, but it’s a good path. Nancy Smash was right not to help him. Ultimately, the GQP has to fix itself. If they cannot, then voters need to see that.
We’ve been here before…
Lincoln at Cooper Union:
(Emphasis added.)
We need to stand up to them, because they refuse to tolerate any deviation from their cult, and this is a decent time.
Federal default is off the table. Ukraine has some carryover funding. There is a CR in place. The elections are a ways off. This is a decent time.
Make them fix themselves.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
waspuppet
I mean, despite the best efforts of our six- and seven-figure media to obscure it, the sequence:
1) Trump demands a government shutdown because he thinks it will hurt Biden and stop the TFG investigations;
2) Kevin McCarthy doesn’t shut down the government;
3) Kevin McCarthy is out as Speaker
took about four days. So yeah, Trump’s endorsement is dispositive. The Republican “moderates” (lol) can prove me wrong by putting country first and voting for Hakeem Jeffries or, I dunno, if they insist on a Republican then Larry Hogan or Adam Kinzinger (since the nonmember idea has been broached). But they would actually have to vote that way, not just complain to Dana Bash and then go back and vote for whoever Trump and Gaetz tell them to. And they have never done that.
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: Yeah, normies are a very diverse group. The friend I mentioned is a gun owning, pickup driving woman who has helped raise her partner’s biracial granddaughter. She is also a lesbian, and that may have given her an outsider’s view on American society and politics.
Fake Irishman
I agree with you all that a Jordan-led house would be a disaster, but I don’t think it’s inevitable though I think it’s more likely now than it was 24 hours ago.
Remember, while Jordan was preening in front of the cameras for years, Scalise was actually done by the hard work of counting votes, reconciling members with each other, building up favors to call in in, gaining trust — in short, actually building a power base within his caucus. He’s no Nancy Pelosi or Steny Hoyer, but in his caucus, he’s pretty good at doing that.
We aren’t in traditional times, but knowing your caucus is still critical to gaining the speakership and/or power. Jordan doesn’t do that nearly as well as Scalise.
Betty Cracker
@Fake Irishman: Excellent point about Scalise doing the background work. We’ll see soon whether that still matters, and I agree there’s a good chance it might.
MisterDancer
@Another Scott: The whole write-up on this situation with “House guy” Fritschner, who was there, is instructive:
To me, it sounds like the whole damn House comity had broken down — the system the House depends upon to actually interact with each other, and from side to side. If so, that’s really hard to come back from, to manage. And it’s a situation where it’s impossible to not just trust McCarthy; it’s pretty clear from that thread McCarthy wasn’t even talking to anyone on the Democratic side.
So no, there wasn’t any point, it looks like, where a side deal could have been cut with the amount of subtlety and back-channeling you’d need to avoid an open riot by the hard-liners.
To quote the end, because it’s highly relevant here:
Geminid
@waspuppet: Tom Reed (NY) might be a suitable Speaker candidate in the scenario you brought up. He retired last year Charlie Dent (PA) retired in 2020, and he might be suitable as well. And there’s always Rodney “F**king” Davis!
Suzanne
@Fake Irishman: Scalise isn’t healthy. It makes me ponder, again, what kind of broken-ass character you have to have to look around the GOP contingent of the House and think, “Yeah, this is where I want to spend my limited time”.
RAM
I don’t see Gym Jordan “lumbering.” I see him, like most sexual assault enablers, mincing like the voyeuristic creep he really is. He’s the emotionally-challenged’s ideas of a tough guy.
Frankensteinbeck
@waspuppet:
By 8 Republican votes. All the rest stuck with McCarthy. 8 was enough to cost him his job, but it’s still a tiny minority.
chris
@Tony Jay: Ahhh so my man Jim Rockford’s preeminence as the quintessential 70’s detective makes it to the UK? Great!!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Tony Jay: Tony, sure the man looks like a freak, but what about the hair? Politics is like business or being a lawyer, there are two things that define a good leader.
* Are they tall?
* Good hair!
We’ve all been in a jury box and thinking “wow, the the first lawyer is doing a good job, but he’s bald, so I couldn’t ever go for him. Now the second lawyer, sounds like just swallowed a toad, but great hair. My mind is made up.”
Dickeylee
@Geminid:
Liz…
Mr. Bemused Senior
Aha! Rick Perry. Molly Ivins smiles from above.
Only downside is, he might get confused and dissolve the Congress.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@schrodingers_cat: Word is the these voters only show up when Donny Dumbass’ name in on the ticket. “Fans” would be a better description for them.
Eunicecycle
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I think this is true. Once he isn’t on the ballot any more, they may go back to being nonvoters. And that will be a good thing.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
So in other word Trump wubs Jordan because Jordan is a dumb jock like Trump is. This a good example of don’t overthink Trump. Doubtlessly when Trump heard Jordan name, Trump sat back, with a big mac, took a bite and fantasized about Jordon stuffing that NERD McHenry into a locker and smiled. Then his aids in the room applauded , because they know they have to when Trump is happy.
Face it, these MAGA twits are all real life versions of Al Bundy.
Tony Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
It is terrible hair. That wispy combover that makes him look like every denim bib-and-brace wearing Cletus that ever menaced Ned Beatty…
OMG! That’s it. Jordan is the Cletus from the Cletus Safaris. We should have known that no self-respecting FTFNYT journalist would ever set foot outside the internationally-recognised ‘Proper mochaccino-latte and a bagel’ line that runs no further west than Route 495! They just pop over to see Gym for his take and fill in the rest of the ‘local colour’ details on the plane back to JFK.
Makes sense to me.
Paul in KY
@schrodingers_cat: ‘Normies’ (to me) are people of voting age who do not follow politics at all and even avoid it, if they can. Alot of them vote at least in Presidential elections and generally have no nuanced take on what either political party/candidate stands for, affects them, etc. etc.
To me, they are like people at the track who pick a horse for the colour of the jockey’s silks or the horse colour or the post position number or something like that.
If something ‘nuanced’ slaps them in the face, they will consider it. They are not stupid at all (in general), they just do not follow non-local politics in any way shape or form.
Geminid
@Dickeylee: …Liz Cheney has a good life now, teaching part time at U.Va.’s Miller School and hanging out in privileged Albemarle County. If I were her I’d let some less controversial Republican have the job, if it beco available.
Another Scott
@Fake Irishman: Obliagtory, from 2015:
Hehe.
(via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@MisterDancer: Thanks for the pointer. That’s a great summary, and it’s nice to see the insider take.
Cheers,
Scott.
Paul in KY
@schrodingers_cat: They are still with Trump.
RaflW
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Trump is also a fan of sexual harassers. And JJ has that in his wrestling past, too.
Elizabelle
if Republicans stand by and allow their party brand to become poo- flinging monkeys, in public this time, for all to see, why should we stop them?
Karen
Did Scalise not kiss Trump’s ring?
trnc
I would say that a normie is someone who isn’t paying much attention to politics. They’re passive receivers of political info through news, social media, etc. They wouldn’t be able to discuss politics in any kind of detail and would probably never actually engage in campaign or election outreach, but they still usually have opinions and many definitely vote.
NickM
Jordan is an awful choice for Republicans and the country so he’s a shoo-in. I’m trying to look at the bright side: he’s a moron, he looks like the personification of flop sweat, and his elevation makes it almost certain someday Trump will turn on him and Truth post about “Lil Gym Jordan”, which will crush him.
George
@Frankensteinbeck: There likely were many more than eight Republicans who wanted to remove McCarthy. Any additional votes would have been unnecessary.
I’m sure Boebert and others like her voted Nay for their own political self-interest and survival in their home districts. It’s foolish to think that if a few Democrats had voted to retain McCarthy, Boebert et al. would not have changed their votes from Nay to Yea, or would not have voted Yea in the first place.
I have no doubt that many Republicans camouflaged their contempt for McCarthy behind Nay votes, and that some of the most vocal Republicans now who are lambasting what happened with the motion to vacate are among that group of manipulative scrods.
Sean
@jonas: Trump can definitely win nationally again with the help of third-party candidates. Lots of Americans are willing to vote for anyone else because “reasons” or “feelings” or “Biden old-bad.” Only so much control we have there.
Fake Irishman
@Suzanne:You are correct about Scalise’ health issues. I was just going off the notion that he is a declared candidate — but that cancer looms large.
Fake Irishman
@Another Scott:
Ha! Couple of ways to read that, one which validates my comment, and one of which undermines it.
Fake Irishman
@George:
This is a good point, and shows a problem that political scientists have to wrestle with in research all the time: a public roll call vote is not necessarily a great measure of a person’s true preferences.
Shalimar
@lowtechcyclist: McCarthy not only could not be relied on to keep his word, he went out of his way with rhetoric blaming Democrats for problems his caucus created and saying they were the reason he lied all the time. I thought they should vote present too and try to get Ukraine and the budget settled, but you can’t blame them for not being willing to go through his shit one more time. They clearly were already on their 20th one more time and just got tired of his lying. Your easy way to get him to keep his word was something Jeffries did not consider dependable.
Shalimar
@Suzanne: I have to look back at the tally to confirm, but I’m pretty sure that during the roll call Scalise was one of the Republicans who wasn’t there to vote. He may be improving. His treatments may be working. But I think you’re right that he clearly isn’t fit to handle the job in 5 days.
edit: I looked and he was not on the list of those who didn’t vote. so he did cast his vote for McCarthy
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@RaflW: And that fits the dumb jock mindset.
And I would offer that these dimwits lack the brains to even be proper working class because they would simply die in an industrial accident if they did something like construction work. So they end up as real estate agents and politicians.
RaflW
@Shalimar: I think this was a two-fer for the Dems. They were absolutely right to tell Kevin to take a hike. And, they put the beltway blatherers on notice that the Democrats are not here to bail out a broken GOP.
I think that second item has really blown some minds in the punditariat.
mrmoshpotato
Gym Jordan as Speaker? Will the Putin-humping traitorous bastard be required to wear a suit jacket then?
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@chris:
Lieutenant Columbo has just one more question for you, sir…
Paul in KY
@Another Scott: Damn, Pres Lincoln could craft some prose. Love the 1860 use of ‘cool’. Maybe he started that? That would be so cool, if he did.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
“Nothing is more inscrutable than the normie mind.”
Nominated.
H-Bob
The Republicans goal is to shutdown the government but have it blamed on the Democrats; my impression is that their anger about being blamed for government shutdowns has a higher priority than shutting down the government. Kevin’s continuing resolution tactic backfired. Now that Kevin (the Republicans’ best strategist🤪) is out, it will be easier for the Democrats to anticipate and counter future Republican tactics.
Ramona
@Paul in KY: I too noticed Lincoln’s use of the word “cool” and wondered if that word word was used in the nineteenth century the way we use it. Given the sentence just preceding it, I think he means “cold-hearted” or “coldly cruel”.
Paul in KY
@Ramona: I thought he was using it sarcastically, but you’re probably right.