This has been a GOP talking point that emerged over the past few weeks to explain away their party’s awful track record in special elections since Dobbs. I’m surprised to see Dave adopt the argument, as it isn’t backed by data. https://t.co/nyA0Pr7qdk
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 14, 2023
A reminder, while we watch the GOP Death Cult eat sh*t… its own:
I think Tom is being diplomatic. It’s never a surprise when Wasserman pushes something stupid that, if it were true, would be bad news for Democrats. That’s his schtick.
If Wasserman weren’t a jackass he might ponder this possibility:
In the past… https://t.co/jNvyczM897
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 15, 2023
…the low-propensity _white_ voters may have leaned more Dem. Among white voters college degrees weee correlated w both more consistent turnout & w voting Repub. But that link is breaking. In recent years white voters w college degrees have swung Dem. Turnout & partisanship…
…among non-white voters has been fairly consistent w pre-Obama elections. (Minority turnout had gone up in 2004.) But since 2016 the other big shift has been w white voters without a college degree. Those categories have swung to the Repubs, & certainly there are Kerry/Obama……voters who’ve been voting Repub since then. But I suspect the bigger factor isn’t non-college white voters changing their partisanship, I suspect it’s higher turnout among Repub-leaning non-college whites who were sporadic or non-voters who have become active members…
…of the electorate because of Trump. And when Trump himself isn’t on the ballot they’re less likely to vote (like in 2018/2022/specials in 2023). Them returning to the electorate gets the Repubs back in to contention but it’s limited by the cross-current w Trump…
…Trump driving away white voters w college degrees. [That demographic is also changing as the cohorts change; white college grads who’ve become voters since 2000 or so are more liberal than college grads who were voting then; some of those older white college grads…
…are switching parties, but some are dying & the cohorts replacing them are more Dem.)
So, this shift of education/turnout/partisanship is mostly among white voters. That’s a potential problem for Dems, but probably less if Trump is on the ballot, & only if Trump holds…
…his previous support & keeps the turnout high among non-college whites—two big assumptions. It could make special elections look better for Dems than it will be next November. But it may not, & if those non-college whites perform like 2018/2022, but you add in typical…
…higher turnout of minority & young voters, 2024 could be more Dem than 2020. If nothing else it’s hard to see how it would be more Repub.
“Trump-led R party did poorly in 20 and in 22. Theyre performing terribly in 23. In 2024 they’ll do well because [checks notes] Black voters will show up in higher numbers!”
Bruh…
-and i cant emphasize this enough-
…wut
— The Last PicketLineBrandon Jedi 😈 (@Yaktuary) October 14, 2023
Remember that thing in 2018 when the polls and pundits were all predicting Doom for Democrats and you were like “WTF? This makes no sense,” and the pundits were “HAW HAW! Silly Libs trying to ‘deskew’ polls and deny their inevitable doom?”
Yeah, it’s happening again.
— NC “F̵a̵c̵e̵b̵o̵o̵k̵ Meta Delenda Est” Steve (@TCFKA_NCSteve) October 14, 2023
Alison Rose
The circle jerks that can occur among pundits and the pundit-adjacent types are really annoying and I wish they would spend their time seeking out a shred of self-awareness.
Jackie
One MAGAt to go… hopefully more follow:
JaySinWA
@Alison Rose: But how would they
earn a livingmake a buck then?Alison Rose
@Jackie: Gee, Debbie. Who broke it?
Also…are we about to get some dirty story about her, because the “I want to spend time with my family” line usually means “I have been banging someone I shouldn’t have banged”.
MattF
@Alison Rose: Or, perhaps even better, actually looking at data rather than falling back on myths or Rube Goldberg chains of inference.
Omnes Omnibus
@JaySinWA: Not our problem.
NotMax
“And that’s the report on changing voting tendencies of innies versus outies. Next, we’ll look at the trend among left-handed voters without an ‘e’ in their name.”
//
Jackie
I hate polls – especially this far out – but this one made me smile, anyway:
TIFG is going to turn his wrath on RFK Jr next. Maybe give the Justices a break for a half day, before the next squirrel grabs his attention.
piratedan
@Jackie: here’s to hoping that AZ can send more Dems to the House…. Lesko serves a pretty red district, so it’s really hard to say who will run in her place… my worst fear would be someone like Wendy Rogers, although I am unsure if she resides in her district… but then again, given the GOP disdain for rules when they get applied to them… who knows.
Danielx
Dems Doomed, says William Kristol…incoming!
Alison Rose
It was 82 degrees here today, tomorrow is supposed to be 87, and Thursday is gonna be 93. Jesus fucky Christ. It should be back down to high 60s/low 70s by the weekend, but still. Global warming isn’t real!!!!!!! But welcome to Third Summer in California.
hells littlest angel
If you can’t escape the feeling that Democrats and democracy are doomed, that we will be crushed by the unstoppable juggernaut of Jordan and Trump, might I suggest you cut down on reading left-wing boo-bird blogs? I would particularly suggest avoiding the-old-before-their-time cynics at Lawyers, Guns & Money who love smugly declaring that Trump will never be brought to justice and will probably be elected in 2024, or that Jordan’s squeakership is obviously a fait accompli to anyone who isn’t a dumb, naïve liberal, and that basically everything is about to go to shit hahaha-defeatism-rules.
A good rule of thumb on judging a political blog: If the only cause they raise funds for is themselves, fuck ’em.
Jay
“So, I am still sitting out here, it’s cold and wet, with the wind coming in from the west, my skin has been falling off from being wet, trapped in a wetsuit for so long, I am hungry, but luckily the bottom of my surfboard is now growing mussels, seaweed and barnicles, so there is food, but I need to ration it”
Every pundit still waiting for the “Red Wave”,……
zhena gogolia
@NotMax: Yes, I can’t even read that stuff.
kindness
Not to mention, the election is more than a year away. Lots usually happens in that year that shapes those ‘undecided independents’. Honestly anyone who is undecided only has an excuse if they were in a coma the entire Trump reign. And even then….
randy khan
One of the interesting (positive) characteristics of the Dem wins is that they have come, to a large extent, from turnout from people who don’t normally show up at the polls – they’re ticked off.
Tony Jay
The GOP is cartwheeling down the road towards 2024 with a multiply-indicted fraud as it’s Presidential candidate, a slim House majority so riven by internal feuding that it can’t even pick a leader, a Senate minority led by a short-circuiting stroke-in-waiting, and a trail of electoral defeats in its wake directly attributable to policy choices that are just getting more and more unpopular.
I know the Newzmeedya want and need a horserace, but some carcasses you just can’t flog over the line regardless of how much sugar you ram up it. The anger they’re directing at the Biden Administration is as much about existential panic over Republican weakness as it is about the Democrats’ refusal to give them tawdry headlines and tasty leaks.
So let them cough up endless screeds about the One Uncool Trick that will cost the Dems the election. They’re just whistling past the elephants’ graveyard.
Jay
Interesting interview,
https://thetyee.ca/Culture/2023/10/16/Naomi-Klein-Interview/
If the Naomi be Klein
You’re doing just fine,
If the Naomi be Wolf
Oh, buddy. Ooooof.
wjca
On the other hand, we had an entire month earlier this summer where it barely touched 80. It may not be global warming (strictly for the sake of discussion, you understand) but it’s inarguably climate change.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: Now do Campbell.
Cameron
@Alison Rose: It was around 90 a couple days ago on this part of Gulf Coast Florida. This morning it was 57 outside my apartment.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
She is way out of my league.
Ken
@Jackie: Looks like RFK Jr is siphoning up the “I want crazy but not indicted” demographic.
Alison Rose
@Cameron: I just want the seasons to behave like they’re supposed to.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: Fair.
Cameron
@Alison Rose: You expect them to do that by themselves?
Ken
@MattF: And ideally, looking at voter data from the last few years, not whichever decade of the 20th — or 19th — century best serves their narrative.
Chris Johnson
@Tony Jay: I continue to think it’s a very specific sort of dirty trick, but way past its sell-by date.
If you are going to do a violent coup, an insurrection, you have to make a bunch of smoke and insist that the public, the real people, are in fact on your side. You don’t go ‘I kill my enemies and now I rule because fuck you, that’s why!’. You go ‘I rule because all the people actually wanted me by overwhelming margins!’. And you have to make people believe it, no matter how untrue the claim, because the alternative is seizing power and then kind of sitting there admitting you’re a usurper?
And that’s what I think of every time some asshole goes on and on about how Biden is so awful and so doomed to lose and has no chance, in the face of all evidence.
It’s a damned convenient story for dumb-ass insurrectionists who already lost their best chance of getting their way, and are unimaginably worse off than they were on Jan 6th.
Trump is not better, more loved and trusted than he was when he was President, which already wasn’t enough to even get re-elected as an incumbent. That’s how bad he was. He’s worse. Joe is fine, Kamala is fine, their team is sharp as a tack and the Dems are doing well with the mess we’ve been handed. The President isn’t a King. Joe is fine, and he’s gonna win fair and square, which is how he likes to do things in general, unlike the opposition.
Anybody (ahem CENK YOU FUCK) who is flailing desperately and doing crazy things to make the point that Joe is doomed and desperate measures must be taken, is just straight up enemy action. They don’t even believe themselves. Give ’em no quarter.
cain
@Alison Rose: Is that like 4th meal?
Gvg
It’s chilly in Florida. I had to wear a sweater and light coat this morning. I hate cold weather. It is way too early in the year for nights in the 40’s and a daytime high in the 70’s. It should stay above 90 till way after Halloween. I am usually still in shorts at Thanksgiving. I assume this is temporary but it is very weird and I am 60. I have seen a lot of Florida weather and as a gardener I pay attention.
you might not think this is chilly, but it is to me and 90 is pretty comfortable. This past summer was also unpleasantly hotter than normal though not as bad as other places complained about. The switch makes my joints hurt too.
Alison Rose
@cain: If it’s eaten in a restaurant in hell, yes.
Steve in the ATL
“Lord have mercy baby’s got her blue jeans on”
lyrics I did not expect to hear blaring from the open windows of a pickup truck driving down the street I was walking on in south bend, Indiana in 2023. Thought that was more of a Wisconsin thing.
JAFD
In good news, I read the ‘Authors in our Midst’ post, 9 days ago, by Jake Berman, and thot ‘that’d make great gift for my friend the railroad buff.’
So ordered it. Email from his wife, saying it arrived today. Now only our confusion over whether it’s a belated birthday or early Xmas present ;-)
In other news: One of our best boardgame critics is Dan Thurot, aka ‘Space-Biff’. His latest piece is
https://spacebiff.com/2023/10/17/molly-house/#more-25564
on Molly House, a game about homosexual life in 18th-century London, and even if you are 99.98% hetero like me, IMVAO you’ll find it well worth reading. And if you do, I suggest going on to
https://spacebiff.com/2020/09/23/the-cost/
NotMax
@JAFD
“The vaunted October Surprise.”
;)
Jackie
Trey Gowdy is funny! “It’s not Jimmy…”
gwangung
@Chris Johnson: If Joe is doomed, then it’s because some of his “supporters” are crying in their beer and not willing to put in the hard work needed to get a politician elected.
Cameron
For those who think Biden is doomed, imagine a debate between him and the current iteration of Trump. Only the MAGA cultists would find the unhinged raving a compelling reason to vote Republican.
A Man for All Seasonings (formerly Geeno)
@hells littlest angel:
Are they supposed to raise funds for the opposition?
What’s your point here?
EarthWindFire
@Jackie: they’re trying couples counseling for people who want to kill each other.
They should try thoughts and prayers. If that doesn’t work, there’s always a shootout. 2A4EVA, amirite?/s
bk
@hells littlest angel: That is so not true. LGM is a great blog with very astute (and funny) commenters. Do you even read that blog?
caphilldcne
@JAFD: wow! How cool is this! I’m going to see if I can get a copy of Molly House and get a game going at As You Are bar here in DC. How cool is this!
Jay
@Cameron:
with or with out the flies?
Groucho48
I’ll bet not even the pollsters believe their own poll. If you offered them a bet at 100-1 odds that RFK,jr. gets more than 10% of the vote, I doubt they’d wager more than a couple bucks on it happening. I’d say his absolute ceiling is 5% and 2% or less is the most likely outcome.
MattF
@Jackie: That’s quite a comment from Gowdy. The sixth ‘family’ of Republicans is ‘people who despise Matt Gaetz’. And their numbers are large enough to halt business in the House.
columbusqueen
@JAFD: Backed Molly House today!
SpaceUnit
It’s the Lee Atwater corporate media messaging strategy:
You start out in 2008 saying “bothsides, bothsides, bothsides”. By 2020 you can’t say “bothsides” anymore. It sounds ridiculous. Instead you say you’ve got a poll and it looks real real bad for Democrats. Now you’re getting so scientific.
Polls are complete bullshit now, but it’s all the MSM has left to try to tilt things for their precious Republican Party.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Cameron: I’ve been trying to picture a Trump/Biden debate. If I were running it, I’d shut off candidates’ mics when it’s not their turn to speak. Also I would have NO studio audience.
Actually, I don’t think Trump will ever venture onto a stage with Biden and debate. Even if he’s delusional about his capacity, his team surely knows that’s no go.
rikyrah
She preached an entire sermon.
“The chaos IS THE POINT”
Vote Heaux!!!
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8hCxtoU/
Matt McIrvin
@Cameron: I find it hard to believe there will be any general-election debates in 2024.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Tony Jay:
I just wanted to read that one more time. Nice work, TJ!
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah: She sounds like me!
Geoduck
If RFK Jr. had run as a GOPer right from the start, he’d have made a lot more headway than any of the crew currently gumming the Shiatigibbon’s ankles. Probably not enough to win, but…
Cameron
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I still think that when he was stalking Hillary during the 2016 debate she should have asked him, “Donald, do you need a potty break?”
Jay
@Geoduck:
Maybe as Speaker?
Shalimar
Someone in Rawstory comments yesterday linked to Jim Jordan’s finances. and it is horrifying. He does not come from a wealthy family. He was not wealthy when he was elected to Congress. He is now worth $30 million and has an income of $6 mullion per year.
His “business” is helping plastics and rubber companies navigate government red tape. That is literally what he is supposed to do for all of his constituents without additional reimbursement. How is this not blatant bribery?
cain
@Shalimar: He will make even more money once he’s speaker. Dude gets paid that much but he hasn’t done shit in congress.
Jackie
@Shalimar: I assume that’s a rhetorical question? Because the obvious answer is “it’s only bribery” if Democrats do it!
glc
Postscript: Terra Nullius
Glidwrith
Two things stand out for me:
1) It doesn’t matter how civic-minded a voter is, they still only get one vote.
2) Covid deaths have measurably impacted two races in our favor. I fully expect there will be a small but growing number of races where the Covid gap will become more visible as older populations die from the after effects and the young ‘uns replace them.
Philbert
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Debate with mike off and no audience: YES! SOLD!
Quit making it a show.
I saw a tape of Carter vs Ford 1976, two respectable men disargeeing vcivilly and with mutual respect.
Dan B
@Jay: Very good interview. Thanks!
charon
@Jackie:
My congresscritter. That is great news.
Redshift
@Matt McIrvin:
Ideally every time TFG refuses a debate, they’d have a televised town hall with Biden instead. I could see TFG agreeing because he can’t stand to see someone else getting that attention. But I agree it’s not likely.
Dan B
@Gvg: Look at the Jet Stream. It’s far north on the west coast and far south in the Midwest and east. Low pressure systems get moved by the Jet Stream and Highs fill the in between spaces. So cold air is being moved far south in the eastern US. Wild deviations in the Jet Stream are a consequence of a warming Arctic. A warming Arctic, and Antarctic, are a result of Global Warming.
Nukular Biskits
Okay, what did I miss?
catclub
@Ken: lol
Martin
Not buying this explanation for the hospital attack in Gaza.
Israel says it was a rocket attack, and if so, I don’t think it’s possible for any Palestinian group to have been responsible – their rockets are small, and simply not capable of doing this kind of damage, whether intentionally or accidentally. Now, if it was a truck bomb, whole other situation, but if everyone agrees it was a rocket, I think it had to have been a western rocket. Palestinian rockets kill maybe multiple individuals, they work as terror weapons because they are numerous, not powerful. Show me a building in Israel that were destroyed in a rocket attack. These rockets struggle to destroy a dining room, let alone an entire hospital.
Now, I don’t think Israel intended to blow up a hospital, but I think they blew up a hospital nevertheless.
MattF
@Matt McIrvin: A debate with Biden would play directly into TFG’s various pathologies— his need to ‘dominate’, his contempt for Biden, his narcissism. It’s possible that his inner circle could prevent or stall a debate— but these days that inner circle is all Z-listers, so who knows.
Martin
@SpaceUnit: I don’t think polls are bullshit, but they’re bullshit a year out. And a lot of the ‘problem’ with polls is that the general public misreads them, and the media presenting the polls don’t address that. Clinton might have led every poll heading into 2016, but she never had a majority, and the undecideds didn’t break evenly. That’s a perfectly common outcome, but it doesn’t indicate a wrong poll.
catclub
Cole’s blog raises money for numerous blue candidates. The criticism is that LGM raises money for LGM.
Mike in NC
Trump will never, ever agree to do a debate with anybody, let alone Joe Biden. Fat Bastard’s brain is rancid cottage cheese. He’d need to be wheeled out wearing a straightjacket and a mask like Hannibal Lecter.
hells littlest angel
@catclub: You said it better than I could have. Thanks.
HumboldtBlue
Phillies with two early bombs and now have 18 in the playoffs.
Cameron
Non-political: RIP, Carla Bley
Geoduck
@catclub: Listening to people here gripe about LGM reminds me of the “Splitters!” scene in Monty Python’s Life of Brian.
wjca
One of those rare areas where we can say unequivocally: “Yes, things were better in the past!” Pity that’s not one of the parts that the reactionaries want to bring back.
Fake Irishman
@Glidwrith:
which two races? I suspect one would be the Arizona AG, which was a couple hundred votes. What was the other one you had in mind?
Shalimar
@catclub: Wonkette raises money for Wonkette and I have never heard anyone complain, because everyone loves all the people working at Wonkette.
I won’t comment about LGM since I am banned from there for telling Loomis he’s a dick.
prostratedragon
@Cameron:
“Too Late,” by Carla Bley from The Ballad of the Falllen with Charlie Haden.
satby
@Steve in the ATL: you’re in South Bend now?
danielx
@Mike in NC:
I’m going to hold onto that image forever.
mrmoshpotato
@HumboldtBlue: Woo hoo!
Geminid
@Martin: Not all of Hamas’s and Islamic Jihad’s rockets are small. They show larger ones in propaganda videos that are not hard to find right now, if you are really interested.
smith
A couple bits of good news:
Senator Butler has been approved to take Senator Feinstein’s place on the Judiciary Committee so we can get that judge pipeline going again.
The right wing party in Poland was defeated in parliamentary elections, so creeping fascism has been stemmed somewhat in at least one European country.
SpaceUnit
@Martin:
Respectfully, I really do believe they’re bullshit.
Leading up to the 2022 election our MSM kept telling us that their polls predicted a red tsunami. They wanted us to believe that Americans were far more concerned about inflation than, say, the unceremonious destruction of women’s reproductive rights.
They also tried their best to conjure up a recession by talking about it nonstop. The media are not impartial. They are not our friends. They have a distinctly corporate agenda and there is nothing fundamentally pure about polling science. It can be a tool to seek out truth or a tool to cast illusions.
And the red wave predicted by their “polls” turned out to be little more than a wet fart.
Tom Levenson
@Groucho48: indeed. Just getting on state ballots is an uphill battle for an Indy run.
Jeffro
oh noes not “fraught with peril for Biden“, Dave W!!
whatever shall we do?
maybe get Uncle Joe indicted on 91 felony counts or something? would that help improve his standing, with the snooze media OR the voters?
in the end, all pundits should ask themselves, “all things and all polling considered, which hand would I rather be playing? regardless of who *cougholdwhitefolksathomewithalandlinecough* picks up the phone
wjca
@HumboldtBlue:
Phillies put another one in the seats
SpaceUnit
@Jeffro:
Yup. I’m quite certain the pollsters know very well which area codes and prefixes will yield them the desired results.
Prometheus Shrugged
@Dan B: More likely, it’s the (relatively early) expression of El Niño, since the pattern you’ve described is the classic Northern Hemisphere El Niño atmospheric “teleconnection”.
Glidwrith
@Fake Irishman: Apologies, it’s been over a year and I can’t remember.
HumboldtBlue
@wjca:
From the most unorthodox leadoff hitter I have ever seen.
Jeffro
@Tony Jay:
THIS
@Chris Johnson:
and also THIS
Martin
@SpaceUnit: Polling 6 months out is complete garbage, but as we got closer to Election Day, the polls definitely weren’t signaling a red tsunami.
And the Dobbs decision happened in the middle of that polling cycle, so people’s focus on reproductive rights OBVIOUSLY shifted after the decision. Polling cannot anticipate that people focus poorly on real issues, it can only capture that poor focus. The electorates focus changed. That’s not the fault of polling, that’s the fault of the electorate.
wjca
@HumboldtBlue:
After a couple initial pitches that weren’t even close, he was in the driver’s seat.
And now, with 2 outs, a 2 run double. Followed by another double. Pretty clear how this one’s going to end.
Suzanne
I have been out for the evening, and I haven’t seen anything in the regular media outlets…. There seems to be some doubt about who struck the hospital in Gaza? Is it legitimate doubt, or ass-covering?
Jeffro
I think you are 110% correct.
Why would he? When he’s at a rally, he gets to go on and on and on about whatever flows through his Swiss-cheese mind at any given moment, and the whole crowd is there to adore him.
SpaceUnit
@Martin:
All the polls leading up to the Kansas referendum on abortion rights were wildly off. There is a fundamental problem.
Villago Delenda Est
My nym. Again and again.
RevRick
@HumboldtBlue: Below the dreaded Mendoza line, but with more than one hundred RBIs!
cain
@Martin: This seems to confirm your suspicions:
https://twitter.com/yousuf_tw/status/1714367757968384106
However:
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390254935851272
Says that the rocket was launched and it got intercepted or something and broke into two pieces (that’s confirmed by multiple sources) and then one of them landed on the hospital – some believe that there was an ammo depot there (why at a hospital?)
Suzanne
@cain: I just checked Xhitter on this topic and it is all heat, no light. Old videos being posted as if they are current, lots of misinfo. WTG ELON.
cain
Very prescient
https://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism
Pretty spot on.
h/t reddit.
Scout211
This I did not know: Trump is suing Orbis Business Intelligence in England and Christopher Steele over the Steele Dossier claiming “reputational damage and distress.” In a hearing to determine whether Trump could go forward with the lawsuit, Christopher Steele was a witness.
Does everything Trump touches turn to shit? (Rhetorical question, of course it does).
ETA: Forgot the Link
cain
@Suzanne: Yeah, there is a ton of misinformation. At this point, I don’t know how you report on this chaos with any level of accuracy.
Everything is done to win hearts and minds.
HumboldtBlue
@RevRick:
With 126 walks and an OBP of .343 and an OPS of .817.
Anyway
@HumboldtBlue:
9-0 Phillies!!!
RevRick
@Jackie: The Marist poll is high quality, and the fact that it has consistently shown Biden with a modest lead is a hopeful sign. The last three two-term Presidents were underwater in their bid for re-election a year out. And in 2020, among the late deciders, who liked neither candidate, they broke overwhelmingly for Biden. And in the four years since 2020, a lot of Silents and older Boomers will have exited the scene, while a lot of Gen Zs will have entered the electorate. The math isn’t in there for the GOP.
tobie
@cain: Israel doesn’t intercept missiles over Gaza. Iron Dome is only used over Israeli territory. Yousuf’s whole theory seems to be based on a false premise. (He’s trying to disprove the rocket misfiring theory.)
As for Hamas and Hezbollah stockpiling weapons in civilian buildings: this has come up in every war in the Middle East I’ve followed closely since 1982.
Here’s an article on weapons storage from 2014:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/07/31/why-hamas-stores-its-weapons-inside-hospitals-mosques-and-schools/
AlaskaReader
@Dan B: Well, …also Bolaven.
Glidwrith
@Jeffro: And he’s not sick with Covid, so he can’t assassinate Biden.
RevRick
@HumboldtBlue: The number of all time Major League players who batted below .200 and had over 100 RBIs before Schwarber….
Zero!
Last night, the decibel level in the stadium when Harper stroked his homer?
111!
cain
@tobie: Yeah, also it seems like a hospital always get bombs every time Hamas and Israel go at it.
So, if it is a rocket – it looks like something larger than what Hamas usually keeps or it is Israel.
wjca
Definitely no longer a matter of “inadequate run support.” When you opponents bat around in consecutive innings, it ain’t the offense that’s the problem.
Geminid
@cain: The Badr-3 unguided missile has a 250kg warhead. Both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed to have them. I’m not saying one caused this horrible explosion, but the placing of blame based on the premise that Hamas and PIJ only have small rockets is unsound.
And the person posting these videos said that the rocket was intercepted a few seconds after its launch and that is a very shaky conclusion. When Israel and the PIJ fought a 3-day war last fall an estimated 20% of PIJ rockets landed in Gaza. Hamas complained about this.
Information on this explosion and its cause is still being developed. I am hoping Adam Silverman takes the time to write about this, like when he presented analysis on the highway explosion on Sunday that killed 70 people.
HumboldtBlue
@Anyway:
10-0!!!!
Manyakitty
@Shalimar: Wonkette raises money because it’s a business and Rebecca pays her staff a living wage. Not to get defensive or anything, but it’s a near-miss comparison.
tobie
@cain: Rocket misfires are not uncommon. I don’t recall the figure but CNN cited an astonishing statistic tonight on the number of Islamic Jihad rockets that have misfired in recent conflicts.
You don’t know what happened any more than I do. We’re all weighing various reports on social media, which is not exactly a trustworthy medium. I only noted that GeoConfirmed raised several questions regarding the first poster Yousuf’s theory. It made clear that it could not say why the rocket broke up and that sound data was “irrelevant.” Others noted that Israel intercepts missiles with the Iron Dome but doesn’t use that system over Gaza.
One of the terrible features of assymetric warfare is that the less powerful party frequently hides munitions in civilian structures because it has no other place to put them where they will be safe. Some say that’s why you shouldn’t engage in assymetric warfare. The danger to the surrounding civilian population is just too great.
wjca
@HumboldtBlue:
Did the Dbacks’ manager get himself a commute pass from the dugout to the mound?
Narya
@HumboldtBlue: woo!!
HumboldtBlue
Phils win! Phils win! Phils win!
wjca
@HumboldtBlue:
Calmness! Slow deep breaths. It’s not like it was a nailbiter or anything.
yellowdog
@RevRick: The oldest boomers are 77. They aren’t dying off THAT rapidly. I think some people are overestimating short term demographic effects.
Eolirin
@yellowdog: US Life Expectancy is 78ish. And the Boomers aren’t what skews the 65+ number as heavily Republican as it is, the Silent Generation is. And they’re rapidly dying off.
Tony Jay
@Chris Johnson:
The ‘Committee To Just Re-Elect The Fucking President, Okay? Sheesh.’ released a statement today… 8-)
NotMax
Did someone say Phillies?
;)
HumboldtBlue
@NotMax:
Philly blunts!!!
On another note, here’s G;en Campbell and Roy Clark — Ghost Riders
NotMax
@HumboldtBlue
Got in the habit of a very late in the afternoon nap while in college. Fell asleep with the TV tuned to a particular channel’s news, knowing that shortly after 7 p.m. it would blare “Hi! I’m Glen Campbell!” which was more than sufficient to jolt me awake in time to traipse to the dining hall for dinner.
HumboldtBlue
Glen Campbell wakes you up for chow, and he plays the guitar on top of his head!!!
NotMax
@HumboldtBlue
A pastiche.
206inKY
Even with high expectations for Dems, I think the country is in for a shock when Andy Beshear not only beats Cameron in Kentucky but completely demolishes him as if this were a Rhode Island electorate. Today I drove through a rural Kentucky TRAILER PARK with a giant “Andy” sign on the highway and not a single Cameron sign in sight. Cameron appears to have given up on Bowling Green and Owensboro completely, let alone Louisville and Lexington. Numerous yards have Andy signs alongside local office Republicans, probably in hopes of Andywashing these assholes, but it’s not going to work. The Beshear ad campaign is presidential in quality—a strong affirmative message on manufacturing jobs coupled with absolutely devastating abortion commercials that are clearly coming from Kentucky women and not outsiders. The climate could not possibly be more different than 2019 when Andy won in a nail biter.
206inKY
Beshear is basically the Jimmy Carter for a generation that was raised to love him instead of hate him.
Kathleen
@206inKY: I agree that his campaign is brilliant! He runs ads on a Black owned radio station I listen to that are masterful messaging – healthcare, education, voter protection. I was driving in rural Boone/Grant Counties and saw Beshear signs in front of a business! I agree with you. I think he will take this one easily. He’s so good at what he does. I’m jealous!
Kathleen
@206inKY: Cameron is running on the Bevin education platform that was the reason Bevin lost!
Geminid
@Kathleen: I suspect that rightly or wrongly, Cameron will also be handicapped by his race. After this election, we’ll likely hear a lot of white men proclaim that, “I vote for the Man, not the the Party!”
Kay
I think this is basically true and not really even controversial. I would just disagree on the effect – drop off voters are difficult to engage. Biden will have trouble engaging young/nonwhite drop offs and Trump will have trouble engaging white, non college drop offs so “fraught with peril” for Biden (besides being ridiculously dramatic language) is where he goes wrong.
Kay
Democrats HAVE seen a drop off with young nonwhite voters. They’re not necessarily “going to Trump”. they’re just not coming out. Biden will have to get them out and “anti Trump” may not be enough to do that.
wenchacha
@Chris Johnson: Wow. You could give speeches!
kalakal
@Gvg: I’m with you on this. Wearing a sweater in October! I hate it
grubert
Seems pretty obvious, there’s always money in telling people what they want to hear.
And Republicans have the most money to blow on that kind of thing..