The past five years signal the end to an economy that was based on cheap everything, @RanaForoohar writes in a guest opinion: cheap money, cheap energy and cheap labor. https://t.co/B1Ath3Luxj
— Washington Post Opinions (@PostOpinions) October 30, 2023
Big changes, big opportunities. In the Washington Post, the Rana Foroohar (of the Financial Times) is encouraging:
… The past five years — which have featured a pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of both — signal the end to an economy that was based on cheap everything: cheap money, cheap energy and cheap labor. All of that is going away or gone. A decade and a half of go-go speculation is finished. The era of cheap is kaput.
The first to go is the era of easy money. This isn’t a short-term response to President Biden’s much-needed post-pandemic fiscal stimulus. (In fact, that stimulus is exactly what kept the U.S. economy resilient while peers flagged, according to a recent New York Fed report.) This is a return to an economy that is more rational and hardheaded. Not all companies, or stocks, are created equal. Many have too much debt on their books.
Years of easy money propped up everything. A higher cost of capital will be painful temporarily, but it will give markets what they’ve needed for years — a reason for investors to sort out risky investments (like more than a few consumer tech and meme stocks) from safer ones (industrials set to benefit from a manufacturing boom).
Cheap energy is over, too. One outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the realization (especially in Europe) that getting crucial commodities from autocrats is never a good idea. The United States, Europe and China are, in different ways, all speeding up the transition to a green economy…
Finally, the era of cheap labor has ended. Wages are rising, and we’ve seen more labor activity, including strikes, this year than in the past four decades. More will follow. This is an appropriate response to decades of wage stagnation amid record corporate profits. Unions, but also non-union workers in many areas of the economy including construction and manufacturing, have been buoyed by the largest infrastructure investment since the 1950s — which has given them negotiating power that they haven’t had in years. Meanwhile, companies in the service sector are reconsidering their usual hire-and-fire-fast approach, having been trained by the pandemic to hang onto employees as long as possible…
The end of cheap is a huge shift. It means Main Street rather than Wall Street will drive the economy. It will make for a more balanced and resilient economy. The bond market won’t like it, and there will be calls to return to the old ways, particularly if inflation continues to bite.
But the past few years have taught us all that cheap isn’t really cheap. It’s just putting your troubles on layaway.
Baud
I’m still cheap.
Anne Laurie
@Baud: No, no, you’re ‘frugal’ and / or ‘modestly priced’ — depending on whether you’re buying or selling.
The right marketing terms are *key* to political viability!
Martin
@Anne Laurie: I think ‘cheap’ works better for Bauds demographic.
japa21
@Anne Laurie: Baud is always selling…himself.
satby
Great article find AL!
I’ve been reading about how the “cheap stuff from China, Dollar Tree economy” in reality is much more expensive long term for the people who can afford it least, as well as disastrous for the planet. Glad to see a good explanation I can share with my less online friends on {shudder} FB.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Martin:
I’m not sure “Baud 2024! I’m cheaper than the competition AND Justice Thomas” really works as a campaign slogan. Maybe “He’ll put your troubles on layaway!” sounds a bit better.
smith
If we can get green energy to scale, I think there is a possibility that energy will be cheap again, this time without the environmental and health costs, and with the added bonus of gutting the power of foreign autocrats and homegrown oil oligarchs.
Scout211
Are we talking about Elon Musk yet again?!
🤣
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Martin: Thats a cheap shot
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Baud: “Good value”
satby
“you may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one…”
Actually, stuff like this fires up the youngs, who will inherit the mess if we don’t make progress.
God I hate autocorrect
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
the end of cheap porn is deflating
Geminid
Pumpkin Spice Special K: get Thee behind Me!
Sorry. I just went grocery shopping.
satby
@Geminid: that stuff is AWESOME! I bought 2 boxes. Perfect with blackberries.
Ohio Mom
Phooey. Cheap being over and Ohio Family entering its “fixed income” years is not a good combo for us. Oh well, we will manage.
I always find the euphemism “fixed income” annoying. Most people are on fixed incomes, no matter what their age. You get the fixed amount your employer decided on. I think pensioner is more fitting for this stage of life.
satby
SAG-Aftra announcing a deal ending the actors strike, according to the Hollywood Reporter.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@satby: Wow. I thought they were far apart. This is good news.
satby
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Well, it’s tentative until the union members vote. But if the union is bringing it up for a vote it must be a decent win. Hope so.
Elizabelle
From your panda correspondent: they just landed in Anchorage.
trollhattan
@Anne Laurie:
I recall a Taxi episode when Louie was describing an encounter to Reiger: “She was beautiful Reiger; no, she was better than beautiful, she was cheap!”
Yarrow
@Geminid: @satby: Is it sweet? I don’t really do sweet cereal but I’ve seen it in the store and am intrigued.
trollhattan
@Elizabelle: Bamboo break?
Yarrow
@Ohio Mom: I agree. I have no idea why “fixed income” is used for old people. Younger people might not be on a fixed income but that likely means their income is unpredictable, which in a lot of cases is worse than a fixed income.
Geminid
@satby: Awesome? It looked Eeew!-some to me.
I got the Original. When it comes go Special K, I am an Originalist.
Elizabelle
@trollhattan: Yup. Sweet bears.
satby
@Yarrow: Well, sweeter than regular Special K, but not as sweet as the yucky freeze dried fruit and yoghurt ones. I don’t like sweet stuff generally. More cinnamon/spices flavor.
satby
@Geminid: I mainly use cereal to accentuate the black- or blueberries it accompanies each morning. So unsweetened is my normal too. But I love the Pumpkin Spice. Already finished my Pumpkin Spice Cheerios box.
satby
@Elizabelle: I never heard, why are they going back?
MomSense
Anyone watching the clown show?
Yarrow
@MomSense: Nope. They’re all awful. I can read about it later if anything interesting happens.
prostratedragon
@MomSense: Yeah, if you mean the Bulls. Imposter Night at the United Center.
Jay
@satby:
Panda’s in the US were part of China’s “Panda Diplomacy”.
Their presence was leased from China.
With relations turning sour, leases are not being renewed.
Geminid
@satby: I try to eat cereal every morning, Special K or corn flakes. I pour half and half milk/cream on it for more nutrition. Bland, but good
I’ve neglected to buy blueberries lately, but maybe I’ll get some Saturdayevening at the Stanardsville Grest Value. I believe in the precept that it’s good to have some fresh vegetable or fruit with each meal. I often stray though.
MomSense
@Yarrow:
I made it through about 5 minutes – but life is too short for that mess.
Dear Dog, they are all terrible.
sab
@MomSense: No. Akron U is playing Miami U on tv.
satby
@Geminid: Me too, but I add about 1/2 cup of dark berries. Bumps the nutrients up dramatically.
And if you live near an Aldi, they usually have the best prices.
Old Dan and Little Ann
@MomSense: I am. My wife’s making us watch it. Ramaswami made a crack about a Dick Cheney in 3 inch heels and I started laughing because I thought it was a dig at DeSantis. But Haley clapped back saying they were 5 inch heels she was wearing so I was a bit bummed.
MattF
NYT sez actor’s strike has been settled.
Poe Larity
Was picking olives at a Kurdish family vinyard last weekend. He said all the seasonal migrants wanted $25/hr for the grapes but he’d given to the cause and a bunch of undocumented Ukrainians showed up with more reasonable demands.
scav
Would fixed be more a holdover from the days of (legendary?) yore where one actually could count on raises (even annual ones!) without changing jobs?
Another Scott
Dunno.
I’m reminded that 20% interest rates on credit cards have been really common for a few decades now. And multi-hundred % interest rates on car title/payday loans similarly.
On the way home I heard a bit of NPR ATC on the radio. There was a segment on TIFG’s trial and the Goya spokesmodel’s testimony. The reporter said that one of the issues was that he wanted a big loan for his resort/golf course, but the banksters were only willing to do it at 9%. He then talked to Deusche Bank’s private bankers who were more than happy to make it a personally guaranteed loan at 2%.
There’s plenty of cheap money out there for people in the club…
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@smith:
Or the shit foreign policy that goes with it. I would love to ignore Saudi and Iran and just let them play sit and spin.
cain
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
Blue light special 🔵
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@cain: Also best way to defund Russia is to make their gas and oil reserves worth less.
CaseyL
I think the dangers and drawbacks of a “cheap” economy have been known for a while, but it’s hard to avoid buying cheap shit from China when that’s all the major retail outlets will sell (and stagnating wages meant, even if you could find US-made items, they were terribly expensive).
I can’t remember exactly when it became difficult to find US-built things like tools, clothing, and appliances, but I absolutely did notice how US-made stuff vanished.
I
mrmoshpotato
@Geminid:
@satby: Regarding this disgusting time of year…
citizen dave
This ain’t right, ‘Cause Cheap Is How I Feel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi_ZUI6Q1kg
Not to mention that Everything is Free https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy6VMDXB2SQ
cain
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Yep. It’s going to be the suck.
Everyone is going to make money retooling although not sure if it will be enough.
cain
@CaseyL:
Amazon is one big front store for Chinese companies.
raven
D Parton
“It costs a lot to look this cheap.”
cain
@raven: congratulations 👏🎉 #50 !
You get a free pic of me smiling and pointing and laughing at today’s debate. Maybe.
cain
Debate started eh? Looks like it is time to head to Chez Tom for the reporting .
Jay
Living wage in Vancouver for a couple has hit $25.68.
Most jobs don’t pay a living wage.
CaseyL
@cain: And they’re taking over eBay, and even Etsy. It’s maddening.
@cain: Do you mean Nichols’ Twitter feed? That’s how I’m following things.
citizen dave
@smith: I work in regulation of electricity–wholesale/federal side. I get the hope, and compared to the other ways, solar and wind production is nearly free. But, we have huge legacy costs of the current system, transmission, distribution systems. And very large ongoing costs to replace the aging facilities, and add on when needed. The utilities never never ever even broach the possibility of a world where the price of electricity is going to fall.
There is a great zeigeist right now that we need to spend tens, or actually a couple hundred billion dollars on transmission lines going everywhere so we can move the renewable production around. Personally, I think storing and time-shifting will be the way, as storage costs continue to fall and we figure it out. (The DOE has a moonshot project to lower long duration storage costs by 90% in 10 years (we’re in year 2)) If you think about it, electricity could look more like a water utility in the future. I’m not sure the big electric grids will be needed or useful to the extent the current GroupThink does.
Martin
You can come to this same conclusion from a different direction.
The dynamic that made things ‘cheap’ was externalizing costs. Guns are cheap because no part of the gun buying economy pays for the damage that guns cause. Estimate is that gun violence costs in the US are about $500B per year – that’s in lost GDP from fatalities, medical bills, the cost to harden facilities against guns, increased security in schools, and so on. Given about 100 million gun owners in the US, this would represent a ‘tax’ of about $5,000 per year per gun owner. If those costs were transferred to the source of the cost, guns would instantly stop being cheap. They’re only cheap because someone else pays.
This is why climate change is a thing – we externalize pollution, putting those costs on others, mostly on people in the future. Much of the work that my state California is doing is trying to remove those externalities, and move those cost back on the source. It’s FAR from comprehensive, and far from complete, but you can see the trajectory. And a lot of economists are shifting their view toward the need to do this relative to even 10 years ago. So from a policy perspective, every effort which seeks to do this does indeed make things not cheap, but also makes things more fair because people now need to evaluate the full cost of the good or service. And yeah, sometimes it sucks because this thing that was cheap isn’t any more, but in reality, it never was. It was only cheap to me, and it was expensive to people that didn’t benefit from the item I bought or the service I used. They were the ones paying for the health consequences of my car or plane flight, etc.
So yes, I think this is going to continue. But I think for most people it’ll just mean lifestyle changes, because we are getting some progress on wages for folks at the bottom. We’re not really getting progress on clawing back from the folks at the top though.
I keep seeing these polls that people think the economy is going in the wrong direction and I have to wonder, after seeing some GOP focus groups talking about how the economy isn’t fair, too favorable to the rich, etc (which they all blame on immigrants) that at least on some economic issues if there isn’t consensus for some policies to the left of Democrats. Bernie was pretty popular with a lot of Trumpers.
Ohio Mom
@Another Scott: I went and read the whole column Anne Laurie excerpted and I couldn’t help but think it’s really about reminding the middle class it’s shrinking away. Poor people are already poor and the wealthy aren’t going to feel any pinches.
Shalimar
@Old Dan and Little Ann: 3-inch and 5-inch heels both sound like digs at DeSantis. Ranaswamy was reminding people that DeSantis is short and Haley is a woman. Haley replied that at least she’s tougher than DeSantis.
NotMax
@cain
Methinks you’re maybe conflating them with alibaba or (shudder) wish.com.
There’s a difference between products made in China and Chinese companies.
Brachiator
Is the author talking about the US or the global economy? Either way, this is nonsense. Dumb punditry and fatuous economics. When are pundits most full of it? When they get into deep predictive mode.
I had to laugh at how utterly empty this was. It’s just been noted that estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month. Is this too much debt? Probably not.
Energy doesn’t care if you are good or bad. Russia still has a lot of gas to sell to eager buyers. Are the Saudis autocrats? If the green economy is not reasonably priced, it will stall worse than a junky car.
This is very true. Wages are still too low, especially wages going to lower income groups. But there are also worrisome imbalances with respect to jobs and prices. And the ultimate cheap labor is automation, which is accelerating in a number of industries, which may give rise to waves of layoffs.
NotMax
@Ohio Mom
NYT feels the Pinche.
//
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Old Dan and Little Ann: So a substantial discussion of our nation’s most pressing issues, then?
Edited to respond to the correct comment
Jeffro
I’m shocked there isn’t an official debate thread?
Ramaswamy is revealing himself, question by question, as a puppet of Putin/trump
STILL no questions about abortion, 5/8 of the way in!
Martin
@citizen dave: I agree. You mitigate a decent bit of the need for transmission if you can establish a culture of conservation. California took this approach in the 70s when it simply couldn’t build infrastructure as fast as people were moving here. The result was a rethinking of how to design a lot of stuff, that we now view as totally normal here, which was actually cheaper than the previous way of building it, and avoided the need for the infrastructure entirely.
The problem isn’t the costs, the problem is that the costs accrue to a different part of the economy and away from a currently powerful part of the economy – and its the loss to the powerful part of the economy which is what holds it up.
I was a little discouraged in the auto union strike that one of the issues the union was advancing was the shift to EVs because they require less labor to build. Now I know they weren’t saying not to build them necessarily, but it was hard to look at that and not see not building them as being the easiest path to resolving the conflict.
I mean, this was the fundamental dynamic in the cost of higher education – faculty would not tolerate any kind of shifting of costs away from faculty wages, and so you have an economic segment (higher ed) which is increasingly inflationary because there are NO productivity gains able to take place. This is why the argument ‘addressing climate change will be incredibly expensive’ because the oil industry will not tolerate their income going down, so renewables need to be spending above what we currently spend on them, ditto for coal, ditto for anything else that might be replaced with a cheaper alternative. That is, conservation is not allowed, only increased spending is allowed. And that’s the cycle we’ve been caught in and have to fight constantly.
Frankensteinbeck
From the examples, this article is only about things being cheap for corporations. Not for regular people. So I really don’t care.
Elizabelle
@Jeffro: You could not pay me to watch a GOP debate.
Jeffro
Chris Christie just (effectively) called for means-testing of Social Security(!)
Highway Rob
@cain: Am ignr’nt. Chez Tom?
smith
@Elizabelle: Usually, someone over at Dkos takes one for the team and live blogs the debates, so the rest of us can point and laugh from a safe distance, but not this time. I was curious to see if they would be asked to respond to the GQP’s electoral disaster last night, but not enough to actually watch the thing.
Jeffro
@Elizabelle: Ok. I wouldn’t…buuuuuuut…this one is interesting, listening for the divisions, the red lines, the thin tremolo of Vivek’s puppet strings being tensed…
cain
@NotMax: No, I don’t think so. There are entire companies whose only store presence are on Amazon who are located in China. Especially when it comes to some things like technology related things.
cain
@CaseyL:
Yep, Tom Nichols has the best feed when it comes to anything related to things like GOP debates or Trump rallys and press conferences. That guy can make me laugh while still feel like I should be crying.
ETA Vivek has shown himself to be a vile asshole even more than the others.
cain
@Highway Rob: Tom Nichols.
Old Dan and Little Ann
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: Hailey did call ramaswamy “scum” because he mentioned her daughter uses TicTok. All the important issues
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Martin: Too bad white populists as a group are full of the folks that LBJ (sorry, Raven) described as follows…
Some of these folks say they are fine with Bernie, but would they feel the same about a non-white or non-male Democrat with similar views?
Do you really think they would vote for AOC for President, for example?
Patriarchal white supremacy is a helluva drug.
Delk
@Baud: you’re attainable.
dmsilev
@Jeffro: What’s the point. Unless TFG drops dead, he’s the nominee.
In actual important news, SAG-AFTRA has announced that they’ve tentatively reached an agreement with the studios. Actor’s strike is over starting tomorrow, at least for the moment. No details yet on the particulars, so we can’t say whether the actors did as well as the writers in negotiations.
Jeffro
You know what would be interesting? Let left-leaning reporters/pundits grill the shit out of the GOP candidates and vice versa. Much better than these softballs from relative amateurs.
Also: where is the question that American politics has been missing for 4 decades (and especially since W’s and trumpov’s tax cuts for the wealthy): if you’re so concerned about the deficit and the national debt, candidates, what’s your position on going back to those higher tax rates on the super-rich?
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Old Dan and Little Ann: I’m not watching, just perusing TPM’s live blog. I don’t understand Ramaswamy’s dig — I thought the Rs like Dick Cheney. TPM says the audience response was “boo.”
ETA I mean, sure, Ramaswamy is trying to create “action”, but this seems overly stupid to me.
Also, Dark Brandon has already excerpted another of his rants (we’re losers). Fun!
Jeffro
@dmsilev: I think I noted my point – the divisions here are interesting. I’m not evaluating them as potential presidents, I’m looking for where the fractures are.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Old Dan and Little Ann: Not a big fan of the name calling, but can we call him “Vivek Ramascummy” now?
Also, how come Democratic primary debates have typically featured so little childish name calling?
Suzanne
@CaseyL:
Truth.
Although I had a great experience this week! A couple of years ago, I bought a hoodie from American Giant. Stupidly expensive, like $130. But made in the USA, and just amazing quality and fit. Just my favorite thing….. until the zipper broke. BUT! Lifetime warranty! Took three pictures and sent an email, and within two business days, my replacement was on its way.
I like to buy better quality things.
NotMax
@cain
Yeah, but it’s a fraction of the total And easy enough to spot by the name of the concern and/or the fractured text.
Hundreds and hundreds of the worst actors among such entities have been booted once their miscreantatiousness became evident.
barbequebob
@Yarrow: I’m guessing that the term is based on the idea that your income from that point on is based on whatever pensions and social security payments you may get, which, while they usually get a COLA (Cost of Living Allowance) are not like when you got a promotion or switched to a better job during your working years ). But, many of today’s boomers are sitting on large 401K balances that will be subjected to RMD (Required Minimum Distributions). So their income in retirement may actually increase. That what AARP and Kiplingers says.
Fair Economist
Cheap energy isn’t over. It’s going to get really cheap over the next decade – if you can use solar. And that’s going to change a lot of businesses. Uses that can time or delay energy uses are going to have great possibilities.
cain
@NotMax: But more often than not the origin of either the product or the company is in China.
it’s somewhat appalling how much we’ve offshored everything to a single country.
I want to go back to getting products locally (in any country) and have the right to repair.
Jeffro
Fwiw, Nikki Haley just staked out a somewhat sensible position on reproductive rights – in detail – and the party is going to have an absolute shit fit about it tomorrow.
Read the transcript, non-debate-watchers. =P
Scout211
@dmsilev:
Fran Drescher tonight:
barbequebob
@Jeffro: it already has multiple layers of that already.
Scout211
Here’s another something good:
Tracy Chapman won song of the year at the Country Music Awards tonight. Link
I love both versions of her song.
Layer8Problem
@Baud: “I’m still cheap.”
But you’re not easy.
cain
@Jeffro: Actually, I think that goes to Christie who said that if you are going to be pro-life it needs to be for the entire life. Christie would be a dangerous opponent if he was running in the general.
Steeplejack
@Martin:
How do we do that, or get them to “pay their fair share” on an ongoing basis? Not changes to the income tax, apparently, since so much of their “revenue” (wealth) doesn’t come from what we peasants recognize as income. I’ve seen mentions of a small transaction tax on stock trades, but I don’t know if that would hit the rich—or much of anything else about it. It’s probably a solution to a different problem.
So what is the answer?
CaseyL
@barbequebob:
Many, not all. I’m a Boomer, and I’ll be lucky if my 401K pays off my (small) mortgage. I won’t be getting distributions from it; all my income will be SocSec and a state pension.
There’s a reason I’m not taking SocSec until I’m 70, and not retiring until I’m 72.
mrmoshpotato
@Jeffro:
I don’t believe that.
Possibly. To Hell with them all – her too.
No. But thanks for the offer of eyeball, brain, and stomach puking.
cain
Looks like the biggest loser was Ramaswamy.
mrmoshpotato
@Jeffro:
I’m good with him means-testing himself into an erupting volcano.
Gvg
@Frankensteinbeck: it results in costs for regular people. All costs to produce a saleable product get paid by the consumer in the end. They are not separate. The rich owners or managers taking a smaller slice happens when demand drops because the price rises or customers look for alternate products. Then they lower prices by cutting their take because they have to.
Everything is connected. It’s never unrelated.
cain
@Scout211: Way to go Fran! Awesome to see her fighting for actor rights.
Gin & Tonic
@cain: Deservedly so.
cain
lol – I know a lot of you don’t like Tom Nichols but he amuses the fuck out of me and yesterday he posted this:
YY_Sima Qian
I find Rana Foroohar a real mixed bag. She has been a long time critic of Neoliberal orthodoxy & has been consistently opposed to kleptocratic capitalism, but her recent analysis has a strong sniff of unseemly & IMO incorrect US boosterism, & even more unseemly schadenfreude at the ROW (including rest of the West). Her arguments against globalization has nothing to offer to the developing world that is seeking to break out of their low income status.
On her specific points:
cain
@YY_Sima Qian: Lot to unpack there – thanks for taking the time to weigh in.
eclare
@satby:
I try to have blueberries every day. I use frozen, it’s easier and cheaper than fresh. I buy Wyman’s brand, which is family owned.
eclare
@Suzanne:
Same. But mainly because I hate to shop, so buying better quality clothes means I have to replace them less often.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian:
Should be “End of cheap hydrocarbons”.
Lyrebird
@cain: Have you read his book? I have not and was thinking of asking folks here if it’s worth a read.
Brachiator
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Oil and gas are global commodities. The value is not set by any particular country.
If we can come up with an alternative to oil and gas, then the old fuel may become worth less.
However, the goal of an energy supply that is clean, reliable, sustainable and cheap may not be realizable. That is, you might not be able to attain all these goals. But we know, or reasonably have determined that new energy must be clean and not contribute to climate change.
Lyrebird
We can thank Reagan (“service economy!”) and Romney (Bain Capital) and many of their fans.
BellyCat
@YY_Sima Qian: Riveting. Thank you!
Until the minimum standard of living equalizes globally, countries with lower wage pools will fiercely attempt to disrupt any market which involves significant labor.
Not being an economist, my take is that manufacturing is going to be a shitshow for countries with high standards of living for the foreseeable future.
YY_Sima Qian
@BellyCat: That assumes the low income economies w/ the dirt cheap labor can find a way plug into the global market for tradable goods. That requires the dirt cheap labor be organized & employed in factories doing labor intensive manufacturing, for the manufactured goods to reach a physical access point to be exported, & stable utilities so the factories can continue operation. These attributes requires stable polities, decent level of governance, & physical infrastructure. Otherwise, this dirt cheap labor pool is no more relevant to the global economy than the hundreds of millions of Mainland Chinese were before Reform & Opening. That is why I consider it an open question in #1 of my comment.
That is why the PRC has been slow to shed much of the lower value added manufacturing to other developing economies, despite government industrial policy incentivizing this direction. The PRC has stable polity (for the short to medium term), decent governance even by middle income country standards, & 1st world infrastructure, not to mention expansive, complex, & vertically integrated value chains. The primary beneficiaries of “China+1” supply chain strategies have been countries such as Vietnam, which can more easily integrate itself into the existing Chinese value chain & ecosystem by doing the final assembly.
VeniceRiley
I practically gave myself away, but the special replacement cartridges are very expensive. Hope the wife doesn’t have buyer’s remorse. 😘
Matt McIrvin
I’ve always been a bit suspicious of the line “we are going to go through a time of suffering, but it’s actually good, it will make us better people”. And that’s kind of what’s going on here.
Suffering never makes us better people. It’s more likely to send us into killing rages, make us elect dictators and demagogues. Half of us seem willing to put a disturbed criminal who seeks to eliminate the other half back in the White House because gasoline got slightly more expensive.
Anyway, I think this article is lumping together several things that aren’t deeply related to one another, and some of them might be transitory. It reminds me of the theorizing about Peak Oil back in the 2000s.