Fellow Floridians and I have frequently complained in this space about the immiserating political dominance of the FL GOP, which has made the state poorer, sicker and dumber since the turn of the century. But tides turn, even in Florida, and here’s some unalloyed good news from the Orlando Sentinel:
In a race seen as a bellwether for Democratic chances in November, Democrat Tom Keen flipped what had been a Republican state House seat in Central Florida in a special election held Tuesday.
Keen, a Navy flight officer who works in the aerospace training and simulation industry, defeated Republican Erika Booth, a teacher and member of the Osceola School Board. Unofficial totals for the District 35 seat had Keen with 51.3% of the vote to Booth’s 48.7%.
Keen, who made abortion rights and property insurance key issues in the race, got between 65% to 70% of nonpartisan, or NPA, voters to make up for Republicans turning out in larger numbers than Democrats, said Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst.
“What actually clinched the win for Democrats was this massive margin with NPAs and perhaps some Republican moderates as well,” Isbell said. “If anything, this should be concerning for the GOP because it indicates a voter anger that maybe they have not understood.”
State House District 35 is a swing district that Biden won in 2020 by 5 points and DeSantis won by double digits in 2022. The seat was open because DeSantis cronies who are running the state’s higher education system into the ground appointed the completely unqualified Republican cop-impersonator who held the seat, Fred Hawkins, as president of a small public college.
I guess they figured DeSantis’s 12-point margin of victory in 2022 in the district meant the seat was safe. Oops. Florida House Dem Leader Fentrice Driskell on how Keen won:
“This is the blueprint for how we win elections: ground game, early investments and hard work,” Driskell, who chairs the FHDCC, said. “The FHDCC was on the ground immediately in this district, signing up Democrats to vote by mail and registering new voters through his primary and into the general election. The FHDCC is ready to repeat this formula and break the Republican supermajority this November.
She’s not wrong, but I think more is going on here than FL Dems stepping up. As analyst Isbell pointed out in the O-Sen quote up top, more Republicans voted than Democrats, and it looks like NPA voters and perhaps Republican moderates joined with Dems to put Keen over the top, despite a barrage of negative ads featuring dumb culture war themes and dirty tricks to try to split the non-GOP coalition.
My theory is that negative partisanship is coming into play, which this time benefited the Dems. As we know, the national political media built up a DeSantis boomlet by suggesting the sour-puss stilt-boot wearer was “Trump but competent” and heir apparent of the MAGA horde. But the more voters in other states saw of DeSantis when he launched his presidential campaign, the less they liked him.
What’s less widely known is that his numbers have been sinking in Florida at the same time, and DeSantis is underwater here too now. Most local analysts attribute that to people being pissed off about DeSantis abandoning the state. The theory is Florida voters are angry that DeSantis has been galivanting around Iowa stuffing his face with pork chops on a stick while things go to shit back home.
That’s part of it, but I also think normies are belatedly becoming aware of the FL GOP’s rampant corruption and hypocrisy, which has been on full and embarrassing display ever since the DeSantis 2024 campaign launch. And as the governor acquires loser stink, maybe the state party he transformed in his radical right-wing image is catching some of those odiferous fumes too. Non-Dems who are non-MAGA might therefore pause to think before they automatically tick the R on their ballot, as they did in District 35.
To sum up, I don’t expect the FL GOP’s grip on this state to loosen appreciably anytime soon. The structural factors that put them in power are still in force. But political realignments happen, and they usually start small. The Dem-NPA coalition that put Keen in office could be a sign of things to come.
Open thread.
PS: I’ve been unwell recently, unable to sleep and lacking my usually keen interest in food. But I nodded off before dinner last night and slept until 4 AM this morning, and now I am so hungry I’m thinking about trying to replicate a Denny’s “Moons Over My Hammy” special, perhaps with tomatoes substituting for ham. Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!
NotMax
Flash from the past while many of us are facing temperatures plummeting.
;)
different-church-lady
Could it be that even in Florida they prefer the fascism have some clothing on?
different-church-lady
@NotMax: Is global warming fake again today?
Baud
Hunger is a good sign when you’ve been sick.
Baud
And thank you Tom Keen for stepping up!
Dangerman
Exactly what I say to myself just prior to reading Balloon-Juice and most pron sites.
Baud
@NotMax:
I was waiting to see someone in a cowboy hat smoking a cigarette.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone😊😊😊
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Kristine
Yea Tom Keen! I hope this proves the first few pebbles tumbling down the mountainside.
0F this morning in NE Illinois by the Lake, with a high of !15F! expected. Beach 🏖️ party 🎉.
different-church-lady
@Baud: Then I’m filled with good signs this morning!
Baud
@different-church-lady:
👍
p.a.
OK!
Ehhh, but what is his position on cruise ships, huh?
Haley backs out of NH debate unless tRump shows up too.
Ken
That would be unfortunate for the arguments of the “I’ll vote Republican so people will see how bad they are” faction — especially as the Florida GOP has been doing their utmost to keep up their side of the plan.
Baud
@p.a.:
I don’t know how NH voters will react, but that move actually makes sense to me.
MazeDancer
Jubilation for Mr. Keen!
(Hope your brekkie went well.)
satby
Feel better Betty! And thanks for the background on the Keen win and FL’s shifting politics.
Geminid
This morning’s Politico Playbook tells me that Vice President Harris is traveling to New York this morning, in order to appear on ABC’s The View. Should be good.
There was also a link to a Politico article analysing the Iowa results, by Jessica Piper and Steve Shepard. One highlight: Trump got less than a quarter of the votes in three dozen suburban districts, whereas he got over 90% of the vote in his best 3 dozen rural precints.
Also, there is a link to a long, long article by Marc Cavuto about the dysfunctional DeSantis campaign and its dysfunctional candidate. It’s published by The Messenger and titled: “The Inside Story of How Ron DeSantis Got Crushed By Donald Trump.”
Baud
@Geminid:
DeSantis never figured out where to go to get his apology.
satby
@Kristine: Yay, baby! Supposed to get to 18° here, and I should be able to bust out the car this afternoon. I hope before the next big snow storm predicted for this evening.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Good for Keen. The national coverage of DeSantis’s flop may have made voters less willing to associate with his faction.
It’s 1 above this morning. I give an unironic yay!
OzarkHillbilly
Too funny, and 1 or 2 that are a little bit scary: Shock of the old: eight unnerving and eye-popping approaches to childcare
@Baud: Sure, call trump a coward. It can’t hurt and it has the bonus of being true.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Do it, BC! Enjoy having your appetite. We need you to keep your strength up!
Baud
@Dangerman:
Should be a rotating tag.
Kristine
@satby: An inch, inch and a half expected here.
Next week? Mid to high 30s and RAIN.
eclare
Thanks for this Betty! Keen winning is a baby step, but it’s also a good sign in the right direction.
NotMax
@Baud
Because you asked.
;)
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Biden folks have a write-in campaign for him in the NH primary. They are not leaving anything to chance.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@OzarkHillbilly: Uh, about that quaint old “baby cage” thing. I think we still use those and call them “playpens”.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Obviously, if he doesn’t get at least 90% of the write in vote, he’s in trouble.
Baud
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Marketing!
Ceci n est pas mon nym
We didn’t get much of the winter storm here in Philly, it turned to freezing rain and left only a couple inches of wet snow. But I’d rather have the snow than deal with what we have, which is a crust of ice on everything. And now we’re getting some of the cold that the rest of you are suffering with. 12 degrees this morning, so the ice is not going anywhere for a while.
Bupalos
YES YES YES.
Things change. People change. I’d love to hear 99% less chatter about people making plans to try and run away from fascists and 2000% more B. Crackers believing in the most real and permanent thing there is in this world- change.
translating a sense of place into a will to fight
What a fantastic surprise this morning, I wasn’t even aware of the race!
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: If you are trying to give DougJ competition, I say well done.
Ken
@Geminid: Electoral-vote.com also looked at the Iowa polls, and noted that Trump has solidified his grip on rural and evangelical voters, but lost support among urban and educated voters. As they put it, swing states swing on the votes of the latter group, not the former.
Another result:
Ramaswamy for the win!
satby
@Kristine: last night it was saying 4-8 inches here. None of the last 6-7 inches melted off because it’s been so cold; my side street is just snow packed down over ice. No idea how the main streets are. But next Monday we’re finally supposed to rise above 32°, so 5 more days to go.
Baud
@Ken:
Didn’t someone quote an NYT headline before Iowa stating that educated voters were driving Trump’s success? Anyone else remember that?
OzarkHillbilly
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Yeah, but we don’t generally hang them out the window. As the author noted, “I would be concerned about pigeons.”
Bupalos
@Ken: what’s most interesting about this- since Trump is almost sure to win the nomination and highly unlikely to catch a conviction in time for the general- is it suggests there really may be some actual nevertrumpers among the desantis voters. Which is something most of us are not considering.
Karen S.
I’m not from Baltimore, but my heart sank when I read that the Sinclair Broadcasting Group bought the Baltimore Sun. Since it’s Sinclair, it’s no surprise that the new owner is a horrible person.
In Chicago weather news, it’s a balmy 6 degrees here in the city. Huzzah!
Scout211
Betty, feel better soon.
I didn’t realize until this morning (when I looked it up) that my sister is in District 35. She always refers to the governor as “that idiot” so I’m confident that her vote was for Keen. Nice.
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: 38 and 37 today and tomorrow and then back into the deep freeze here. Then we have a warm up into the 40s next week.
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: sounds like time to get planting 😉
40s would feel like a spring day.
SiubhanDuinne
@satby:
Currently 17° in the north ATL suburbs, but wind chill makes it feel like 5°. I know that sounds ridiculously mild to anyone not in the Deep South, but it is bone-chilling for this swath of the country. No snow, though.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Ken: That’s actually really interesting, how wide the variation is on that question or any question. An indication that the remaining dregs of the Republican Party are not at all uniform.
marklar
@Baud: “Didn’t someone quote an NYT headline before Iowa stating that educated voters were driving Trump’s success? Anyone else remember that?”
The article was about educated REPUBLICAN voters. That’s a different sample from all voters.
Most social science research since the early 2000’s has found that education is often used to buttress one’s cultural identity (e.g., the relationship between climate change denial (y-axis) and education (x-axis) is an inverted U, with highest levels of denial at both the lowest level of education AND highest level of education.
If you have the inclination, check out the “Cultural Cognition Project”, run by Dan Kahan, which has a great deal of background on this.
Li-Li D
@schrodingers_cat: I don’t live in NH, but I’ve asked several family members who do live there to write in Biden on the D side rather than try to play games on the R side.
I was in Portsmouth, NH on Sunday and did not see a single sign for any presidential candidate!
Ken
@Baud: By an amusing coincidence*, today’s electoral-vote.com also has a piece on the NYT’s obsession with “understanding Trump voters” articles. They link (with full agreement) an article in the Bulwark criticizing the practice.
* Or IS it?
Baud
@marklar:
I thought the poll Ken cited was about the GOP Iowa caucus. Same group.
Jackie
@p.a.: NH debate is off. ABC canceled it last night after TIFG and Haley refused to debate.
Li-Li D
@Karen S.: Check out the Baltimore Banner. They’re trying to revive quality journalism.
Ken
And no one wants to see DeSantis try to smile and answer questions for two hours?
Geminid
@Jackie: The right move by Haley, I think. DeSantis would have spent his time tearing her down.
Baud
@Ken:
Good. I feel my message is getting through to more people.
satby
@SiubhanDuinne: I know that it’s awful for you all down there. I hope it improves fast for you all soon.
I’m just being a whiney baby about it because I’ve been stuck without transportation since this all started last Wednesday. And I’m in dire need of cat food before they start eyeballing my well marbled flesh.
Karen S.
@Li-Li D: That’s where the link in my comment goes to, a Banner story. I just learned about it. Thanks!
Ken
@Baud: electoral-vote and the Bulwark are even stealing some of your talking points — like, if it’s so important to understand the voters, where are the interviews with urban Democrats?
Scout211
Count me as someone who hopes the presidential “debates” are soon a thing of the past. When a candidate can refuse to appear and there are no repercussions and the candidates that do appear just make shit up and try to outdo each other for zingers for video clips, it’s just not a debate on issues anymore. And in my opinion, the debates are of very little value to the campaigns or the voters. Ugh.
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: I’m looking forward to it. This cold has me aching all over.
p.a.
@Ken: DeathSantis could lose a debate with two unoccupied chairs.
SiubhanDuinne
@satby:
No transport for a full week AND out of cat fud? If ever a situation were whineworthy, that’s it. Hope things improve for you fast!
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Scout211: Trump will find some reason not to debate Biden either. I don’t think Trump can debate any more, even within the meaning of “debate” here.
dp
Hope you feel better!
Jackie
Ooooh, threats from MAL:
satby
@Ken: @Baud: not to be too redundant, but last night I copied and edited a Blue Sky thread that answered that Coppins article about going to tfg rallies. I thought the author made a lot of good points. Hat tip to @Kristine: who reposted it on BS first.
SteveinPHX
Wish you a speedy bounce back!
Albatrossity
Great news! I hope that the authorities follow up on the fake text messages dirty trick. Those are becoming all too common, not just in FL but in other states, and it would be nice to see someone caught and punished for that sort of election interference.
satby
@SiubhanDuinne: Thanks, still have wet food enough for today and tomorrow if needed, but no kibble, and some prefer kibble. Picky bastards.
Scout211
In open thread news, CNN has an interesting article by their “senior Supreme Court analyst” that links up Gorsuch’s anti-regulatory votes to the fact that his mother was forced to resign from the EPA because of her extreme stance on regulations.
Geminid
@Jackie: I wonder if they’re doing this with Republican Senators. Last time I checked, 23 had endorsed Trump and 26 had not. Two of the Caucus’s elected leadership have endorsed Trump: Campaign Committee Chair Steve Daines and (last week) Conference Chair John Barrasso. Minority Leader McConnell, Whip John Thune, Conference Vice Chair Shelly Moore Capito, and Policy Committee Chair Jodi Ernst have not.
Daines endorsed Trump last year. One report is that he did this in order to mitigate conflicts over candidates and fundraising.
eclare
@Ken:
Thanks, interesting article.
WaterGirl
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: My thought exactly!
J.
Glad you are feeling a bit better, Betty.
Re flipping Florida, the Dems need to field good candidates with messages that resonate. Insurance is a huge issue for Florida homeowners and those considering living here. And not that I think Democrats can do anything about the insane insurance market, but candidates should still hammer Republicans on the issue. I also think that using freedom in messaging — freedom to live as you choose without Republicans invading your privacy — would be a win for Dems, especially with NPAs and moderate Rs.
Baud
@Jackie:
Interesting threat, since Trump will probably have secured the nomination next month, probably effectively on Super Tuesday.
zhena gogolia
Ugh, the NYT is crowing about Trump’s “landslide.”
eclare
@satby:
As I wrote earlier, I will probably be stuck at home til Monday, which will be a full week, and I am running out of pet food. Luckily I have plenty of human food: canned tuna for my cat and Cheerios/cooked oatmeal for my dog. The oatmeal is the instant brown sugar and cinnamon kind, so it has way too much sugar, but desperate times and all that.
Good luck getting the car out and getting cat food!
zhena gogolia
@Baud: The NYT said he was getting support from college graduates.
Jeffro
today Thomas Edsall linked to a longer piece from 2019 about why trumpov has such a hold on American evangelicals:
Guth also found that
Guth ranked religious groups on their level of support for conservative populism and found that
The most common explanation, according to Guth,
“The evidence here,” he wrote, “suggests a more problematic answer”:
Guth took his analysis a step farther, suggesting that pro-Trump, conservative populism has become entrenched in the white evangelical community:
Guth went on:
(I find that last part fascinating: why would evangelicals oppose trade pacts or deny climate change? Answer: because they’ve been thoroughly brainwashed by the propaganda paid for by the plutocrat wing of the GOP)
WaterGirl
Pro tip for Trump. If you have to threaten people to get their support, you’re not getting their support. You’re getting their obedience, and resentment. Not the same thing as support.
Suzanne
I think Florida might be experiencing some of the same feelings of regret as Brexit fans in the UK: We were mean to gays/immigrants/brown people…. And it didn’t fix it!
Being a fucken dick is a flex for some people, but that hit wears off.
Also, LMAO at the UK. Way to go from a global empire to a shitty backwater. I would find it even funnier if we weren’t doing the same thing.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: He doesn’t give a shit.
Jeffro
Also of note: DeSantis speaks some truth for a change
(he’ll still kiss the ring in a week or two, though)
Those last two comments especially – wow! “Here’s why he won in the first place: decades of fame. Here’s why he’s not good for us in 2024: when it comes down to it, about half of us are not trump cultists.”
eclare
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I think the same. If so, I wonder if Biden will do what Obama did in 2008 and air a 30 minute video of his plans and beliefs. So many people only see the horrible soundbites of him stuttering over a word and think he has lost it mentally. That could help, maybe.
eclare
@Jackie:
“Permanent record”? OMFG, are we truants in high school being threatened by a principal?
geg6
I have no earthly idea what this is, but it sounds like a horrible idea. I’m not a breakfast person, but if I’m having one, it’s going to be either a soft boiled egg on toast with maybe a bacon side or, if I’m going all out, eggs Benedict.
geg6
@NotMax:
Currently 10F here in Western PA, with wind making it feel like -6. And the local weather person tells me it will be 50F next week.
Omnes Omnibus
@eclare: Oh, yeah?
Well, don’t get so distressed
Did I happen to mention that I’m impressed?
TBone
@Bupalos:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eOcimzsviFA
Redshift
Hope you continue to get better, BC!
It got down to 15 and windy here last night, and will be again tonight. We’ve just hunkered down since the snow, but laziness will probably drive me to get out and put some ice melt on the walk, so it will melt without any effort – today’s the only sunny day this week.
catclub
@geg6: Our breakfasts have become gigantic. Scrambled eggs, lots of veggies, tomatoes, spinach and veggie sausage, plus avocado and PB&J toast. Nonetheless, by lunchtime there we are again.
satby
@eclare: yeah, I even toyed with loading Instacart to get something delivered. If you have any frozen ground beef or chicken, [cooking] it and plain rice with the drippings tossed together make a great substitute dog food. Hope you can bust out soon too!
catclub
I suspect pancakes, eggs and hash browns all over ham. probably no bacon or sausage, but you never know.
Jackie
@Baud: I think it’s donations – I read his small donations are slowing to a trickle. They’re probably tapped out so he needs those corporate donations. Fighting lawsuits ain’t cheap lol
eclare
@Omnes Omnibus:
Great reference. I was thinking more of the principal in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.
catclub
@Jeffro: If you have read “The Authoritarians” and learned about ‘authoritarian followers’, this is EXACTLY what the those evangelicals who favor Trump, are. Too bad Guth did not mention it.
They will ignore failings in their leader if he is hurting the right people.
eclare
@satby:
I can’t in good conscience ask a delivery driver to brave my slippery front porch steps if I won’t. I doubt they would try anyway. I don’t have any frozen chicken or beef, and I don’t think I have any rice but I’ll check. Thanks for the suggestion!
Geminid
@Jackie: On the expenditure side, the Trump primary campaign budget may end up bigger than they’d hoped.
Omnes Omnibus
@eclare: I am a Wisconsin boy. Gotta go with the Milwaukee band.
TBone
@Scout211: I’d read that before and all I can say over and over is motherfuckers! So infuriating!
OzarkHillbilly
@geg6: @catclub:
Moons over My Hammy copy cat.
frosty
@Karen S.: I am from Baltimore (well, Baltimore-adjacent now) and I saw the news about the Sun. I finally cancelled my subscription of 20+ years when the Tribune bought them. Then it got sold to a hedge fund guy. And now this sale.
I hate that my go-to paper now is the WaPo. Someone from Baltimore reading a DC paper? Mortifying!
catclub
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I think Trump will be happy to debate if he is told it will rev up his devoted followers. He has a routine that will still work for them. Ignore the questions and reject the authority of the moderator.
The problem will be if his advisors tell him he needs to convince moderates who have not decided between him and Biden, by debating sensibly. No can do.
kindness
My uneducated notion is that Democrats problem with Florida voters is that far too many Florida voters don’t bother to vote. There are any number of reasons as to why. My beef is that the poor in Florida don’t seem to link their wellbeing/government with their lives and blow it off. I have no clue how to motivate these folk to get to the polls and vote.
frosty
@Li-Li D: Thanks. The Banner has been on my to-do list for awhile.
OzarkHillbilly
I love the RFT, they sucked me down into a rabbit hole of misbehaving teachers in our state.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro:
Source. I am always a bit suspicious of populist movements.
Dan B
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Um… Was your playpen suspended out the window in the lightshaft twenty or thirty feet up?
lowtechcyclist
@Jeffro:
What gets me about that piece is the use of the term populism. When I first encountered the term in the 1970s, it meant siding with the average people against the moneyed interests – the big corporations and so forth.
Now I’m not sure what it means. These days, what’s called ‘populism’ seems to be all about punching down on women and minorities, and pwning the libs, of course. I’d just call that racism and misogyny.
UncleEbeneezer
@Jeffro:
They’ve been reflexively opposed to any sort of cooperation that might help lift up other countries (especially ones with Black/Brown people) since the 50’s. The whole notion of even considering the needs of other countries is anathema to their worldview. It really is: America, fuck yeah! And they view the planet as their little bundle of resources that God granted them for endless extraction and profit. I don’t think they were brainwashed so much by GOP/plutocrat propaganda so much as GOP/plutocrats figured out how to tailor the propaganda to tell them what they already wanted to hear.
Suzanne
@Omnes Omnibus: Those are interesting points. Much to chew on there.
They would suggest that someone like Senator Professor “I’ve got a plan for that” Warren is not a populist. Though I believe she is deeply concerned with how governance and policy affect people to the point of making it her life’s work.
EarthWindFire
@Ken: I live across the Potomac from DC. I’ve often observed that the same WP writers who can sit in Ohio diners understanding Trumpublicans for hours on end couldn’t be bothered to cross the river to ask anyone why they voted for the first AA president. Gee, why might that be?
TBone
Courtesy of Wonkette, I’m still on my soapbox.
https://ballsandstrikes.org/law-politics/trump-colorado-supreme-court-enforcing-the-law-is-good-actually/
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k03dsRUVbcQ
catclub
@lowtechcyclist: Guth’s article on evangelicals is converting ‘authoritarian followers’ to ‘populists’.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Perhaps “manipulating poular sentiment in a particular way and harnessing it for power” would be a definition that fits both scenarios.
There’s still that element where the undesired effect is being pushed from unaccountable powers above, just Republicans unhelpfully point that impulse away from wealth imbalance and toward diversity initiatives.
Betty Cracker
@Jeffro: I was reading an account of the DeSantis townhall earlier, and I’m almost tempted to watch part of it because this sounds so unbelievable:
Wait, what? This is the asshole who’s still going after Mickey Mouse at the cost of millions of taxpayer dollars because they criticized his stupid anti-LBBTQ law.
We’ve seen DeSantis change personas before. When he ran as an unknown (outside of Fox News) backbencher in the general election, he was deer-in-the-headlights guy who tried to play down the extremism he displayed during the primary.
Early in his governorship, DeSantis mostly kept a low profile and occasionally did moderate things, like funding environmental projects and raising teacher pay. But then COVID happened, and he turned into the angry, sneering right-wing pumpkin we’re familiar with today.
The persona CNN describes sounds completely different. I don’t know if I’m up for seeing that today.
catclub
This is the definition of authoritarian followers. Guth is doing a disservice by not labeling it as such.
OzarkHillbilly
Commentator KM over at Outside the Beltway has put up a gofundme:
She’s a good ‘un. I put in a few bucks to help her out. If anybody here feels like helping, she will appreciate it.
catclub
@Betty Cracker: The persona CNN describes sounds completely different.
Suddenly ‘slippery’ and ‘chameleon’ spring to mind. Also, dangerous.
lowtechcyclist
@Jeffro:
And the bit about white evangelicals was, um, interesting:
IOW, who would Jesus be an asshole to? I want to just go through some of these idiots’ Bibles, and rip out the passages that they dishonor, starting with “love your neighbor as yourself.”
The Bible is also very particular about immigrants. Deuteronomy 10:17-19: “[The Lord] loves the alien who lives among you, giving him food and clothing. You too must love the alien, for you once lived as aliens in Egypt.”
Scout211
True to form, it has happened.
Baud
@Scout211:
Good opportunity for Nikki to double down on how the US has never been racist.
lowtechcyclist
@eclare:
Indeed.
But the funny part is that they’re trying to threaten donors with this talk. Yeah, they’re shivering in their boots, I bet: they’re thinking, “what are you going to do, refuse to take my money? Oh noes!”
Miss Bianca
@Scout211: I didn’t want to get into the middle of the “Nikki’s name” wars the other day, but this right here is exactly the point I would want to make – if Trump goes there, that is a positive sign that no upstanding person should.
OzarkHillbilly
I couldn’t help smiling at this: Wife of 49ers’ Kyle Juszczyk becomes designing star thanks to Taylor Swift
eclare
@lowtechcyclist:
Exactly.
satby
@Omnes Omnibus: Hofstader’s book was published in 1955; Hoffer’s was published 1959. Both drawing on lessons from a war that we still need to remember, lest we repeat that horrible history.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Trump will try. I think Biden will straight out call him a coward and will comment on how he’s losing his faculties. If he does, Trump can’t refuse without looking really weak. Trump can get away with refusing to debate the GOP candidates. They have all been afraid of alienating his supporters. Dark Brandon doesn’t need to care about that. They would never vote for him anyway.
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: thanks for the link, that is fascinating!
smith
Wow, in court today Alina (“not smart and not all that pretty”) Habba just asked again for an adjourment so TFG could attend his MIL’s funeral, despite being smacked down yesterday for asking after being denied. Smacked down again. Judge just admonished her for not standing when making an objection. This is starting to look like a planned strategy to me. I’m expecting TFG to break into a rant any time now to try and provoke a mistrial.
Jeffro
Yeah, maybe. Or they just tied evangelicals’ issues up with the plutocrats’ issues into a neat little bundle of ignorance and hate via Fox News’ 24/7 propaganda blast?
It is interesting that there seems to be such strong correlation these days between what should be separate issues: i.e., if you are an NRA supporter, you’re also likely to believe climate change is a hoax and that we spend half our budget on foreign aid, etc etc.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Well, the Republican Party has helpfully aggregated virtually all of the bad ideas and put them in one place for us.
Josie
@Scout211: I just saw that on CNN. It sure didn’t take long.
Ken
@lowtechcyclist: I think the implication is the non-donors will be targeted for revenge if Trump is re-elected — and quickly, since he’s only got the one day as dictator.
Mike in NC
Ron DeSpicable commands a whopping 5% of the GQP vote in New Hampshire, per MSNBC.
geg6
@OzarkHillbilly:
Gawd. That looks disgusting.
geg6
@lowtechcyclist:
Totally agree on what my former understanding of what populism was. It seems to me that populism is just a term they use to avoid calling them racist misogynists.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@lowtechcyclist: It’s called a protection racket.
Ken
@smith: Ah, hence all the quote hypothetical unquote questions being asked on the legal blogs, about “have you ever said this to a judge, and how did it work out for you”?
Matt McIrvin
@Jeffro: There is such a thing as “crank magnetism”: particularly with conspiracy theories, belief in one tends to lead to belief in as many of them as possible, even if they’re contradictory.
You get people who believe both that the Moon landings were faked in a studio, and that the astronauts discovered aliens when they went there.
Just yesterday on Facebook I saw someone trying his best to reconcile his belief in both of those things into one coherent story, and it got really convoluted. He seemed to actually believe the old joke that the Moon landings were faked but they were shot on location. I think the idea was that NASA fabricated the Apollo program to cover up the fact that the saucer aliens were giving them rides to the Moon on the regular.
geg6
@OzarkHillbilly:
Love it! I was wondering where she got that jacket.
smith
@Ken: I think Engoron was entirely too lenient with the ongoing blatant disrespect in his fraud trial, and, as I said above, I think TFG’s team may have adopted it as a strategy. They are still attempting to try his cases via public opinion instead of the judicial system, with the goal of denying the legitimacy of the courts.
Ken
Oooh, nice. And you could tie in any number of other conspiracy theories, by claiming they were the “payment” for these rides. Saucer aliens want adrenochrome!
RevRick
Question. Does this district have a substantial Hispanic population,,who tend to be irregular voters?
That could explain the anemic Democratic turnout. Which makes this great news.
Hamlet of Melnibone
I think I’d forgive Haley all of her many sins if she’d get down in the mud with Trump. #DiaperDon attacks please!
Quadrillipede
This is an entirely reasonable argument.
Quadrillipede
Very much looking forward to this as well.
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist: Historically, there was a connection between the “anti-moneyed-interests” and the more sinister, racist-authoritarian types of “populism”. Andrew Jackson was both, for instance. Huey Long, though he was, interestingly, probably less racist against Black people than the average white politician of that time and place.
You still see that surfacing sometimes in the “horseshoe left”. Railing against the banksters often shades into antisemitic conspiracy theories. All the people who came to prominence during the Great Recession as critics of the financial industry, but were really some sort of quasi-libertarian goldbug. The figures like Matt Taibbi allying with the cultural right. I think the Wikileaks/Assange type of supposedly anti-imperialist radicalism was also an example, the way they got classified with the far left but somehow mostly attacked liberals and not the extreme right even when the extreme right took over the government.
BlueGuitarist
Sad that so many Iowa Caucasians aren’t embarrassed to say the loser won the last election. The Know-Nothings have completely taken over the Republican Party; in the 1850s the Republican Party absorbed a significant part of the Know-Nothing Party, a group notable for their bigotry and conspiracy theories.
Excellent news about Florida State House!
As H.E. Wolf mentioned last night, Postcards to Voters helped get out the Democratic vote in that election.
Lots of ways we can make a difference, including postcards, contributing to candidates and GOTV, sharing good news, good cheer, music, snark, all the full service blog practical info…
Getting fired up and ready to go!
Ken
@smith: I agree, with the one mitigating factor being that this wasn’t a trial before a jury or the public; it was a trial to determine the fines and other punishments for what has already been found to be criminal fraud. (Same, really, as the second Carroll trial.)
And in that regard, Trump’s courtroom rant was about as far as you can get from “acknowledgement of guilt”, “show of remorse”, “promise not to repeat the crime”, and all the other things that judges look for in sentencing. So I think Trump shot himself in the foot.
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
Maybe, but I think it needed more “At this diner in Keene, NH, …” [NB: “At the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester, NH …” would have been an acceptable substitute.]
BlueGuitarist
@RevRick:
According to Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), FL-H-035 population is 33% Hispanic;
CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population): 27.5%.
The DRA map shows a district geographically larger than neighboring ones, consisting of bluer, more urban, more Hispanic precincts nearer Orlando and redder areas, less urban, less Hispanic.
Sister Golden Bear
Part of Republican efforts to
eraseeradicate LGB, and especially T, people. Also too, I’ve lost track of which state it was — because so many anti-trans bills have been introduced in the last week or two — but another state is trying of define trans people as inherently “obscene” and ban us from appearing anywhere there might be children. Which effectively bans trans people from being in public at all. This is literally a direct strategy from the Project 2025 handbook.SFAW
@Ken:
It’s probably too much to hope for, but I would like to see Carroll awarded upwards of $100M.
Which would probably reduce Shitgibbon’s net worth by 50 percent. [I believe he’s a billionaire about as much as I believe the Jets will win this year’s Super Bowl. And that’s even with the “emoluments” he received while occupying the WH.]
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@OzarkHillbilly:
@Dan B: “Hey honey? According to the internet, apparently we’re using the playpen wrong.”
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@smith: I’ve also heard legal commentary that they are trying to goad the judge(s) into a reaction they can use as evidence of bias on appeal. So judges are giving him a lot of latitude where they ordinarily wouldn’t to a defendant, just to minimize that possibility.
smith
@Ken: True, but in the current trial there is a jury, so the potential damage is much higher. At least Judge Kaplan is not taking any of their shit — he’s already today told Habba to sit down and shut up at least thre times, told her to stand when addressing the court, and just admonished TFG to keep his voice down so the jury doesn’t hear his commentary. (For anyone who’s interested, a blow-by-blow account can be found here, a nitter link.)
smith
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I’m guessing that the judges he might appeal to would be extremely not amused by his antics, and would give any frustrated judge a lot of leeway in yanking his chain. He certainly has had very little luck in his appeals so far.
Jackie
@RevRick: I was surprised it made all the major MSM headlines – it must be a more significant win than we realize! I saw one blurb stating it’s a good omen for the Nov elections.🤞🏻🤞🏻
BlueGuitarist
@RevRick:
@BlueGuitarist:
Based on 4 precincts in each group
Blue precincts, 36% Hispanic:
2020 73% Biden, 43% turnout
2022 66% Crist, 20% turnout
Red precincts: 14% Hispanic
2020: 80% Trump, 70% turnout
2022: 84% DeSantis, 53% turnout
(Turnout = votes/citizen voting age population; not necessarily registered voters)
Mai Naem mobile
I heard Tom Keen on I think Joe Sudbay’s State of the States(a really good show focused on local state politics/races) show on Sirius over the weekend. Keen came across as a really good candidate. I hope he goes for something bigger down the road.
Jackie
BettyCracker, hope your tummy gets better FAST for potential popcorn celebrating:
Denali5
@Betty C
I actually found fried green tomatoes at a restaurant up here in the frozen western New York State. They were heavenly.
Scout211
Yep.
I hope we can refrain from copying Trump and his band of racist campaign advisors.
Anyway
@kindness:
One of the voter suppression tactics in Red states is to have voting rights suspended after many encounters with law enforcement and the judicial system – it’s never clear when those rights are restored. It’s not unreasonable for POC and urban folk (the main targets of voter suppression) to be wary of trying to vote. There have been reports where people whose records were cleared were questioned and probed when they showed up to vote.
Our Aussie commenter in the am threads gets a lot of pushback but she is right that the US system puts up many blocks to voting from POC and the disadvantaged. Also the various jurisdictions involved make it much harder for people to even find out their voting status after it’s been suspended.
I don’t think it’s this complicated and messed up in other countries.
Anyway
Yay, Tom Keen!
Ken
@Jackie: (solemn voice) We must remember that super PACs such as Never Back Down are completely independent of the candidate they support. As such their actions, whether running ads or winding up operations, are in no way correlated with the operations of the campaign itself. Anything else would be Against Campaign Finance Law. (end solemn voice)
As for “the campaign insisted he had a path forward”, his most plausible path to the Presidency would to become Trump’s VP and pray for a miracle in the form of a cheeseburger-induced infarction; but he’s pretty well closed off that path by having the temerity to run against Trump in the first place.
catclub
Press fainting couches will be overflowing!
RevRick
@BlueGuitarist: Thanks for the information. It definitely corresponds to my hunch. The demographics show weak turnout in the off years. And this was a special!
Ksmiami
@satby: you can add frozen peas and carrots too as dogs actually need some vegetables. I cook my dog’s food
Manyakitty
@satby: good stuff 👍
Pittsburgh Mike
Jeez, it’s abortion. Dobbs is the worst decision since Koromatsu or Dredd Scott. It has made pregnant women barely citizens, with no right to the best health care for their conditions.
This isn’t even hard to guess.
UncleEbeneezer
Meant to add this earlier but hooray for the FL news! Nice to finally see a small sliver of hope. Happy for you Betty C :)
NotMax
@Matt McIrvin
“You naked apes keep it down back there! Don’t make me pull this saucer over.”
Denali5
@Satby
My dog loves canned green beans.
louc
@Anyway: One of the tricks Ron DeSantis pulled in 2022 was having FDLE officers several formerly incarcerated who received voter registration cards. They received them after the ballot initiative was passed restoring voting rights to convicted felons who had served their time. All the charges against them were eventually dropped. But the damage was done and people in several communities stayed home in droves.
The Pale Scot
@J.:
There’s really nothing to be done about insurance. The rates are affected buy re-insurers, international corps like Swiss RE and Loyd’s of London. A state government threatening them would result in a giggle and “NO
SoupInsurance For You”https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/13/bill-mckibben-on-global-heating-capitalism-insurance-and-social-friction/