So uncommitted gets a decent showing, the ceasefire Biden’s been negotiating this whole time comes to fruition, activists thing they accomplished something and are satisfied, we move on to November.
— LadyGrey ???????????? (@TWLadyGrey) February 28, 2024
There is an unusually large number of votes being cast in support of an unopposed Biden despite the "uncommitted" protest vote
— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) February 28, 2024
The weird thing isn’t that Biden doesn’t have 100% support from Dem voters in a primary where he’s the sitting incumbent.
What’s weird is that Trump is still dominating a party he’s led to defeat in three successive federal elections. At least Grover Cleveland had good midterms.
— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) February 28, 2024
Per the Washington Post, “4 takeaways from the Michigan primary” [gift link]:
Michigan primary voters on Tuesday gave President Biden and former president Donald Trump unsurprising and lopsided victories that will hasten their respective marches to their party’s nominations.
Late Tuesday night, Biden was leading “uncommitted” 80 percent to 15 percent, while Trump led former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley 67 percent to 28 percent…
1. What the ‘uncommitted’ vote means
The idea behind the “uncommitted” campaign was to get lots of people in a state with a disproportionate number of Arab Americans to make a point — and perhaps send a message to Biden about his Middle East policy favoring Israel too much. It was led by some prominent Democrats, including Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a Palestinian American congresswoman.There is no question it got people’s attention on Tuesday. Whether it really changed the 2024 paradigm is another matter…
2. Nikki Haley fades, but not completely
Haley has in recent weeks set about arguing that her vote share, too, is a sign of vulnerability for her party’s front-runner…We don’t have exit poll data showing how many voters are balking at Trump in the general election. But nearly 30 percent of the vote is far from nothing.
It’s better than she polls nationally and in many of the Super Tuesday states. Haley also again overperformed the polls — as she did in New Hampshire and South Carolina — which suggests these polls might be overselling Trump’s strength (in the primary at least).
This is a state where the state party apparatus has gone very Trump-y in recent years. And Trump’s hold on the GOP nomination is so firm that it’s been clear for a while that Haley votes are essentially protest votes…
3. Haley begins to acknowledge the endgame
If you look closely at Haley’s rhetoric in recent days, it’s been clear she’s not really arguing anymore that this race is winnable. Instead, she seems to be making a point about how Trump is going to torpedo the party…Haley has basically signaled she’ll stick it out through Super Tuesday because that’s what she said she would do. “Giving them an option” is not “I’m going to win.”
Her goal now appears to be making her point — and possibly, if Trump loses, being able to say (perhaps ahead of another campaign) “I told you so.”
4. Biden’s actual primary challenger peters out
That Biden’s actual primary challenger, Phillips (D-Minn.), lost to “uncommitted” wasn’t terribly surprising. The “uncommitted” campaign had significantly more momentum behind it…In fact, Phillips on Tuesday night was in danger of finishing in fourth place, behind Williamson. Williamson suspended her campaign three weeks ago.
Main takeaway from tonight is that there's no evidence of the Gaza protest vote being especially big electorally — it got a very similar share to 2012.
But the "vote uncommitted" movement got what they wanted out of tonight anyways — this is how CNN is reporting on it. pic.twitter.com/WlurRTLwNa
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) February 28, 2024
Seriously! https://t.co/VmTpAeV18V
— Amy Chapman (@amyrchapman) February 28, 2024
No. Don’t stay up late. Accurately message to watchers/voters that we aren’t going to know on election night and let every go to bed, while also, just maybe tamping down on the inane conspiracy theories.
— Luke Spencer (@S_Luke_Spencer) February 28, 2024
Actually uncommitted may come in closer to 12% (it’s currently at 13% with 58% of the vote reporting)
— Amy Chapman (@amyrchapman) February 28, 2024
I guess this was written & disseminated before any vote totals were reported https://t.co/k3yC9LhGJp
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) February 28, 2024
Jayapal offered this warning a few months ago: https://t.co/PcI5WkF3mF
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) February 28, 2024
Last note on Michigan from me for tonight – final tallies from cities/counties include both early votes & same day votes. The results of those who voted before Election Day were different than those who voted today & that needs to be remembered when looking at early hot takes.
— Amy Chapman (@amyrchapman) February 28, 2024
FiveThirtyEight guy, with fortune cookie:
… sentiments exist in the electorate that can influence primaries and influence generals. Sometimes they influence both in the same way, sometimes they influence both in different ways, sometimes they just influence one.
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) February 28, 2024
Political pundits will spend a lot of air time tonight talking about the Dem Primary uncommitted vote instead of focusing on Trump's much softer underbelly within his own party (currently 31% of GOP primary voters voting against him in a state won on the margins)
— Patrick Schuh (@PatrickSchuh) February 28, 2024
Through three state primaries now, Donald Trump has consistently underperformed his polls by 5-7%, while Joe Biden has consistently overperformed his polls by the same margin or more.
Polling is fundamentally broken, nobody knows how to fix it, but the media is still pushing it.
— Patrick S. Tomlinson (@stealthygeek) February 25, 2024
52% of the vote in, Biden has more than doubled Obama’s 2012 total vote. https://t.co/bqXXMKaa78
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) February 28, 2024
Everyone knew this was the phoniest "goal" in history, given previous uncommitted totals. The attempt to hold the threat of Trump over the heads of Michigan Democrats (and the country) flopped. Let's pray there's no hangover from this in November. Camps and nukes, people. https://t.co/sS4AATceO9
— Tom Watson (@tomwatson) February 28, 2024
Here's the problem: most Americans aren't on Twitter. Most journalists (and political staffers) are. https://t.co/6zayslupJZ
— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) February 28, 2024
In other words, trying to appease the "Genocide Joe" crowd continues to be a lost cause. He should stay the course in seeking a peace deal because it's the right thing to do, and ignore anyone who claims his Gaza policy is an electoral liability. https://t.co/BbnBJ8viw9
— David Ridley (@RidleyDM) February 27, 2024
If Trump & Biden are tied in the polls, why, objectively, are Democrats the only ones who need to seek out "hopium," which, as a portmanteau of "hope" & "opium," one can only assume is a mind-altering substance contrary to an accurate grasp on reality? https://t.co/QgN4fHmYbp
— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) February 25, 2024
Baud
How could I committed get delegates? Who would select them?
Chetan Murthy
@Baud: *snicker* [puts on serious hat] You’re asking if these guys thought things thru …. ? [/serious] *guffaw
Baud
I thought something had happened, but no ceasefire yet.
Baud
Sometimes, Democrats irritate me but sometimes
they make me proud.
Jay
@Baud:
supposed to start this weekend, we will see.
Damien
@Baud: Frankly, if it comes to fruition anytime between now and November, the Abandon Biden/Uncommitted crowd will consider that their honestly rather meager showing is what forced him to finally do something.
Baud
@Jay:
I googled and didn’t see any news of an agreement. The news was Hamas and Israel saying Biden was being too optimistic.
Baud
@Damien:
Hopefully well before November, but I don’t care what they think. I only care about turnout in November.
AlaskaReader
Rep. Kevin McCabe of Big Lake is sponsoring a bill that would include new definitions of “person” and “life” under Alaska’s criminal statutes.
…the bill would allow the Department of Law to file murder charges against abortion providers.
…the proposed Alaska bill could possibly make it illegal for health care providers to dispose of frozen embryos following fertility treatments known as in-vitro fertilization procedures, or IVF.
12 states have introduced so-called “personhood bills,” which seek to limit abortion access by defining life as beginning at conception. Such laws have been enacted in Missouri, Alabama and Georgia. In Arizona, such a law has been passed but is blocked by the courts.
Baud
@AlaskaReader:
When I was young, Western women had a reputation of being strong and fiercely independent. I wonder if that was always a myth.
Brachiator
Just about the only interesting thing in the Washington Post op-ed piece.
Among Republicans there is the MAGA cult, and the small, but steady anti-Trump protest vote. This group is more worrisome than the uncommitted voters in the Democratic Party primary.
I hope that Haley stays in the race, because it might make the GOP protest vote easier to track.
If she drops out, would this protest vote stay home in the remaining primary states? It is unlikely that they would vote for Trump. And they will be a worrisome wild card if Trump is not toppled somehow and becomes the GOP nominee.
Jay
Like I said, we will see. The proposed ceasefire was in Hama’s hands for all of 3 hours before various “spokespersons” rejected it.
Israel, 2 hours.
The interesting thing is all of Israel’s allies are onboard, and were engaged in the negotiations, along with all the regional powers, except Iran and Syria.
Baud
@Jay:
Hard to take anything at face value. It’s how many negotiations go. See Manchin and the IRA, for example. Fingers crossed.
Chetan Murthy
@Baud: I have to say, I won’t believe it until it happens. Bibi doesn’t want a ceasefire, and Israel has a ton of foreign exchange reserves (kinda like Russia) to tide them over during a war. And Bibi sure AF doesn’t want a ceasefire, b/c he wants to erase Gaza off the map, push all the Gazans into Egypt.
Jay
@Baud:
depends. Some are, some arn’t.
The GrOPer Party has a playbook, and they are sticking to it, even if it has cost them at least two elections so far.
In Canada, the Reich Wing parties have gotten a copy of the playbook and are running it, so far, with out much success and massive pushback.
Brachiator
@AlaskaReader:
So, frozen embryos would have a right to existence, but not necessarily a right to be born.
Presumably, the state might have to take responsibility for any frozen embryos that the potential parents no longer needed.
Jay
@Baud:
@Chetan Murthy:
We will see. Israel can stand alone for a while. So can Hamas, for less time.
but both Israel and Hamas, in the longer term, rely on ally’s support.
Jay
@Brachiator:
Nope, they will ensure that IFV parents pay the costs, “indefinately”.
Can’t have a bunch of fetal moochers sucking welfare from the State.
Baud
@Jay:
The Canada subreddit is full of right wingers. They sound like Americans.
AlaskaReader
@Baud: When I was young, excepting the military base populations, Alaska was a predominantly blue ‘territory’.
With statehood, the state began a slow trend away from that independent makeup.
Resources were seen as the new ‘driver’ of economic ‘development’, hence corporate interests soon displaced individual sensibilities.
Soon after statehood oil was discovered and an immediate influx of oil workers from the south cemented a fixed move to red state status. With all that red state status entails.
The late coming influx has imagined they are ‘pioneers’ and ‘independent’ but they have tried to do little but attempt to change Alaska into exactly the places they all fled from in order to get here.
They’re still at it,
Jay
@Baud:
yup. Fucking Preston Manning.
Many of the “conservative parties” have gone as batshit crazy as the GrOPer’s have, in a large part, because they all use the same “consultants” and “advisors” and have for years. And 6 months after the GrOPer’s make a play in the US, some inbred Alberta redneck makes the same play here
It was no mystery why Fucker Fishsticks interviewed Daniel Smith, (Alberta PM) just before jetting off to suck Putin’s cock.
Baud
@AlaskaReader:
Makes sense. Thanks.
Frankensteinbeck
One side effect of last night: Throw away your ‘crossover vote in New Hampshire’ excuse. There really is a fat protest vote movement in the GOP against Trump.
p.a.
If a cease fire does occur and hold (and I’m not putting a dime on that possibility), just for intellectual shits-and-giggles I’m interested in how the “uncommitted” mouthpieces move the goalposts.
AlaskaReader
@Brachiator: …currently the privacy clause of the Alaska Constitution protects the right to an abortion.
This ruling remains in effect after the US Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade in 2022.
That hasn’t dimmed the hopes of Republicans who annually continue to attack our own Constitutional rights, norms and precedents.
Thank the early predominantly Democrat leaning residents for steering a course through the statehood process for our mostly highly commendable State Constitution.
Republicans in the state regularly push legislation that gets put down in the courts, add up the costs of all those losses over the years and it’s an amazing waste of a very excessive amount of public money.
AlaskaReader
Specifically, in regards this bill’s chances and how that might determine IVF procedures going forward is anyone’s guess at this point.
Republicans here mostly model their legislative aims on other states failed policies. Failure of these policies in other states is no deterrent. Those failures regularly get a new life in the Alaska statehouse.
lowtechcyclist
Legislating personhood at conception is establishment of religion, in the language of the First Amendment. At that point, the newly fertilized egg is just a bunch of genetic code. Believing that to be a person is religious belief, pure and simple. And all those laws ought to be tossed out on that basis, and would if we had a Supreme Court that anyone could trust to follow the Constitution.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Baud: All those right wing movements sound the same because they’re all running on the same Putin generated propaganda. They’re all in thrall to him and selling out their own countries for his agenda.
Nearly 20 years in and we can barely admit what’s happening much less figure out what to do about it.
The biggest issue is how much he’s been able to propagandize law enforcement at all levels, and I’m guessing the same is happening in the national security sector, which is probably why we can’t respond…the calls are coming from inside the house at this point.
Rusty
@Frankensteinbeck: Michigan is an open primary state, just like SC and NH. Exit polls in SC and NH put Republican voters at 74% and 74% for Trump. I have no idea the percentage of voters in the Michigan primary that were not Republicans and I’ve seen no exit polling. The definitive answer will be super Tuesday when we get some closed primaries. So we will know in a few weeks.
yellowdog
Is no one concerned that there were a LOT (several 100,000s) more voters participating in the GOP primary than the De, primary, despite GOP party chaos. And even though he got a smaller % of the vote. Trump got about 140,000 more votes than Biden. This demonstrates a very high level of enthusiasm on the dark side. Not good!
Baud
@Rusty:
I think Michigan is the first state where the Dem and GOP primaries happened simultaneously, limiting any crossover effect.
daveNYC
What the hell is up with the Weigel/Watson tweets? Sure their goal might have been rather low, but Uncommitted got over 13% of the vote, which is nothing to sneeze at, and the 100k votes is a disturbingly big number for a state that Biden won by 150k.
Baud
@yellowdog:
No. Our nomination is effectively uncontested.
Turnout in 2012 was also low.
Frankensteinbeck
@daveNYC:
It is if Uncommitted always gets about 14% of the vote no matter who is running. You always have to ask what your control group looks like.
Brachiator
@yellowdog:
This might not be a big deal.
Also, at CNN 92 percent of the GOP primary vote has been counted, vs 85 percent of the Democratic Party vote.
sab
Where I am voting in Ohio (we do Super Tuesday, so March 5) this isn’t just a presidential primary. There are also the lower tier campaigns. On the Dem side in my precinct there are only three races with a challenge. Biden v Phillips, two Dem candidates for the same state supreme court seat, and two candidates for our state senate spot.
I do not understand why the state Democratic Party endorsed one of the Democratic supreme court candidates over the other when they both seem highly qualified. From past experience with state party endorsed candidates (e.g. Marc Dann) I am inclined to vote for the other one just on principle.
Baud
Via reddit
schrodingers_cat
@p.a.: Lasting peace in the Middle East.
gene108
@Baud:
Start canvassing your local behavioral health center.
Baud
@gene108:
Oh wow, I didn’t notice the typo. Uncommitted.
Frankensteinbeck
@yellowdog:
I am as guilty as anyone of wanting it to mean something when it looks good for us, but the truth is, election watchers consistently say that how many people vote in a primary has no predicting power at all. It seems like it should mean something, but it doesn’t.
EDIT – @Baud:
Start canvassing your local behavioral health center anyway. You’d have to be crazy to vote for Baud. That’s a 50%+1 slice of the electorate for sure!
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
I recently noted that Marianne Williamson, as judged by vote total, is twice the candidate Dean Phillips is. Apparently “no one at all” is three times the candidate she is.
I’m starting to wonder if Phillips is a Libertarian or Communist psyop. With “no one” having six times his support, all these parties would have to do is find a way to finagle Phillips into the D nomination. Then everyone will just throw up their hands and say “I guess we’re better off with no government at all.”
Betty Cracker
Florida’s presidential primary is March 19, but the state party controversially decided not to hold a primary election and is automatically awarding its delegates to Biden. I thought about temporarily switching my registration to Repub so I could vote against Trump. But as usual, I couldn’t bring myself to do that.
I’ve been reflexively against open primaries since 2016, but now I’m wondering if they might be a good thing in states like Florida where unaffiliated voters make up such a large percentage of registrations. Anything that brings more people into the process might be good in a state like this. On the other hand, open primary votes are vulnerable to shenanigans. I tend to think effective shenanigans are rarer than generally supposed.
EarthWindFire
@p.a.: The Abandon Biden guy already said too little, too late. Apparently Joe is supposed to time travel to October 8 and implement the ceasefire there.
Geminid
@p.a.: Mr. Klippenstein, who (I think) writes for the Inrecept) complained that the Qatari-mediated plan would provide for a ceasfire of “at most” six weeks. That is not so; the ceasefire would last at least 6 weeks, during which time the Qataris, the US and Arab nations will try to negotiate a lasting ceasefire.
This is not exactly moving the goalposts. Klippenstein and others have all along backed a permanent ceasefire followed by an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel rejects any ceasefire leaving Hamas in charge of Gaza, and that is the American position as well. It also appears to be the Egyptian position, backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Primary participation is typically dwarfed by general election participation. Presumably, also, the overwhelming majority of primary voters are showing up for the general regardless of the prinary outcome. Any butthurt downstream of any primary should be a marginal effect, at most.
prostratedragon
@Baud: Is it odd that someone was walking around with that? A friend who did a rotation as a military courier said that, basically, you just don’t put the bag down, even on an intercontinental flight.
daveNYC
@Frankensteinbeck: It’s generally been under 2%, except for 2008 when Biden, Edwards, Obama and Richardson weren’t on the ballot and ‘uncommitted’ was the recommended choice for their supporters, so I’m thinking that one is a bit of an outlier.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Betty Cracker: I’ve been “unenrolled” in any political party, MA’s version of independent, for most of my voting career. On primary day I declare and take a ballot for one party and one party only. So far that has always been Democrats.
If I were ever to take a Republican ballot, it wouldn’t be to hobble or hurt the party. It would be because there was a good candidate for at least one of their offices and I want them to succeed in their party. This has not yet happened.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@prostratedragon: Isn’t the tradition that the courier has a set of handcuffs securing their wrist to the bag?
JWR
@Betty Cracker:
Nothing personal, BC, but that’s a word that makes me cringe. Why? 2016. (Whether voiced by Bernie! or Cornel West or Noam Chomsky.) Sorta like the way I’ve always reacted to the word T***p, whether used as an action or a name.
As far as Nikki Haley, my only reason for being interested in her as a serious candidate is whether, or when, she endorses Trump. The night of, or the morning after Super Tuesday? I say she waits a day or two, maybe even a week, before kissing the ring.
Kay
@daveNYC:
I think the raw number probably concerns the Biden re-elect more than the percentage – obviously they can’t bleed 100k voters in MI.
They are concerned, too, despite Balloon Juice beliefs about how Arab Americans in MI don’t matter and should be deemed Bad Democrats:
The Biden team admit they dehumanized Palestinians. Fine actually said “it never should have happened” – strong language.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
I do not believe that way. Aside from the bleating of a few assholes who superglued their partisan blinders to their face in 2016, I see fairly little of that here. Less than I might have expected in the past.
People are entitled to their opinions. A primary is a conparatively safe place to act out. Some still won’t like it anyway. So it goes.
jlowe
There are no editors at the Washington Post: “in a state with a disproportionate number of Arab Americans. . .”. So what would be the proportionate number of Arab Americans in the state of Michigan?
Steeplejack
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
No courier involved. The computer was the work computer of a “city hall engineer” (probably commuting to or from work).
Kay
@daveNYC:
Biden’s actual share of Arab American votes in Michigan is about 100k. I get that from 250 k total, adjusting for turnout (about 50%) and percentage of total who are Democrats (about 70%). So 100k uncommitted protest votes is a lot. I think an “unimportant” number would be 20k or 30k – that’s what I was hoping for.
I think they recognize the errors they made and hopefully will do a course correction. They have to win Michigan. Hoping for a ceasefire isn’t enough – we have been told a ceasefire is a week away since October. Arab Americans are a very small group nationally – 3.5 million – but they have some power in this instance because of where they live. That’s just a fact.
Betty Cracker
@JWR: Word choice aside, I’m basically wondering if an open primary could be an effective way to bring more people into the process under specific circumstances, e.g., given the sky-high levels of voter apathy in FL. Normally I’m against it.
Kay
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
I think referring to a situation where there are now 27k dead civilians as “butthurt” is off base. I mean, come on. Any other group in the Democratic Party would use whatever power they have to lobby the Biden Administration. Why is it disallowed for Arab Americans? This isn’t “Biden doesn’t support a public option” – it’s a catastrophic humanitarian disaster.
zhena gogolia
@Kay: Have the Arab-Americans in Michigan done any serious thinking about what the policies of the Trump administration toward Arabs and Muslims will be? If they have, how do they plan to deal with a Trump administration?
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@zhena gogolia: Why don’t you go ask them?
Geminid
@prostratedragon: San Francisco attorney Henry Clausen wrote a very good book* about the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, based on his experiences as a JAG officer. Clausen had been appointed by Secretary of War Stimson to take testimony about the handling of highly sensitive intelligence in the days and weeks leading up to the Japanese attack.
This was in late 1944 and the first months of 1945, and the various Army and Navy officers Clausen needed to interview were scattered around the Pacific and Europe.
So Clausen had to fly in and out of war zones carrying copies of highly classified documents in a courier’s “bomb pouch.” That was a vest worn under his uniform, with a pocket for papers and a magnesium flare sewn in. Clausen’s instructions were to pull the lanyard that triggered the flare if it looked like he was about be captured. Clausen was to take the vest off first- if he could.
* Pearl Harbor: Final Verdict (1983?).
prostratedragon
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Not according to this person (shudder!).
Baud
@Geminid:
As many times as I’ve gotten clothing stuck on things, I would not trust that vest at all.
Ken
Really, that could have been followed by any of the candidates’ or parties’ statements, and for that matter most of the news reports. Weren’t we complaining just yesterday about FTFNYT’s having set their narrative for Michigan before a single vote had been counted?
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
The problem with this is it dismisses every problem with the Biden Administration and leaves no room for disagreement. Of course he’s better than Trump. But Biden is the sitting President- this is 100% his policy. They hope to influence Biden’s – acting as the United States- policy decisions. They’re right, IMO. The United States has not done enough to use their influence to limit civilian casualties and bring in humanitarian aid. Do you not hear the difference in how the Biden Administration talks about Ukranian civilian casualties and Gazan civilian casualties? Why is one group less important than the other?
zhena gogolia
@Kay: YOU CAN DISAGREE WITH HIM ALL YOU WANT, JUST NOT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
zhena gogolia
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: I’m not setting myself up as their spokesperson. I personally cannot fathom what their reasoning might be, given the alternative to Biden.
JWR
@Betty Cracker:
“Under specific circumstances” eh? Rigged election! Shenanigans! SHENANIGANS!1!!
;)
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Simple, it is not disallowed.
I support their cause and have stated repeatedly that a protest vote, particularly in a primary, is well beyond valid. All I’m saying is the reflexive defense of Democrats and weird expectations placed on voters that I typically expect at Balloon Juice has been relatively muted in this instance
ETA: My use of “butthurt” in another post upthread was being used to describe intrapartisan feelings after any primary generally, not this one here, now. In fact, I believe the subject at hand there was comparing primary vote totals between parties directly to draw conclusions about the general (unpossible).
Betty Cracker
@zhena gogolia: This is a primary. It’s okay.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: My mother told a story of traveling around Europe with her parents, as a child, with clandestine documents sewn into her coat – the theory being that police would not search a 7-8 year old girl.
Chris Johnson
@Frankensteinbeck: Absolutely. 30%, 40% ‘hell no’.
And rightly so. Trump isn’t a Republican and isn’t there to help them, he’s a Russian puppet there to ruin them and more importantly, it isn’t working.
Some of them liked it when it looked like they could pretend to win. McConnell, for one. Unlike Trump, his alliance with Putin was purely transactional and when Russia invaded Ukraine and failed, Mitch was out.
Plenty of Republicans are smart enough to know what they’re dealing with, and to know it’s a trap. This is not just about how dumb they can be. It’s a trap! Even if they are dumb it’s still a trap. They’re being groomed to be the stomped-on insurgent force, they’re being groomed to be Hamas. They would have to be idiots to want that.
A whole bunch of them don’t, and Trump would have to have ALL of them AND independents, to ‘win’.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
That made sense to me early on. But at this point it’s hard for me to see how Hamas in charge of Gaza would cause more loss of life than the continued Israeli military operations in Gaza.
And the latter is happening right now. Plenty of time to take measures to prevent a great deal of what Hamas could potentially do in the future, just like October 7th should have been prevented in the first place. But the only way to stop Israel from continuing to kill Palestinians in Gaza is a ceasefire now.
So I want Israel stopped now, regardless of Hamas. Stop the carnage first, and then figure out a different way of dealing with Hamas.
Hell, remember how the big worry about Hamas was their tunnel system near (and presumably under) the border between Gaza and Israel? Presumably the Israeli military owns that tunnel network now. They can destroy it, or they can occupy it, or whatever. They can put a lot of sensors down there to make it easier to detect attempts by Hamas to create a new tunnel network near the border. ISTM like that would be a huge advantage going forward. Withdraw from the surface, but hold onto the tunnel network in some manner.
zhena gogolia
@Betty Cracker: Kay seems to be talking about the general.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@zhena gogolia: I was merely prompting you to consider the absurdity of your question.
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
I think it’s particulalrly ineffective for young people and I’ll tell you why. For my youngest, the United States has been in a democratic/existential crisis his entire adult life. It’s all he knows. Telling him “it’s an emergency!” requires the context of “not emergency, normal” and we’re not going back to “normal” no matter who wins in 2024. We have the context of “going back to normal”. They don’t. This IS their normal. They adjusted.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Betty Cracker:
I don’t think there’s any real data indicating that open primaries moves the needle in any substantive way in terms of getting apathetic people to vote.
I lived in states with open primaries and always played the game of voting in the (R) primary for who I thought would be the easiest to beat in the regular election. I don’t think it ever mattered and have come ’round to closed primaries.
zhena gogolia
@Kay: Yes, I’ve seen a lot of people in Russia who “have adjusted” that way.
zhena gogolia
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: My question was not absurd.
ETA: I would like to have seen more aggressive policies from both Obama and Biden to protect Ukraine. But I would never consider not giving them my full-throated support, BECAUSE I HAVE LOOKED AT THE ALTERNATIVE and see how disastrously worse it is. “Putin puppet” is not a viable alternative, so the support (in the middle of an election year) has to go wholeheartedly to the other side of the binary choice.
ETA: It’s as if no one remembers Trump’s policies toward Muslims and Netanyahu at all.
JWR
@Kay: I’m with you on this one, Kay. Despite whatever is being said behind closed doors, Biden is way behind Dem polling on the situation. It’s a frickin’ bloodbath.
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
It’s always the middle of an election. They’re every two years. If you’re 21 years old the country has been in a democratic crisis your entire life. If they never objected or dissented as long as we’re “in crisis” that means they never object or dissent, because this crisis has been ongoing since 2016 – their whole adult lives. They don’t know a non crisis country.
zhena gogolia
@Kay: Why don’t they protest the stated planned policies of the Trump administration?
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: Agreed.
These supposed Ds are calling Biden, Genocider Joe. According to them only Biden and Netanyahu have agency. Does Hamas have any agency at all? They haven’t returned all the hostages yet. They poked the bear on October 7th. Biden has been carefully balancing both sides. I don’t buy that Biden has been as bad as an R President would have been.
Yes Israel is our ally like Ukraine is, so the rhetoric is different.
prostratedragon
@Geminid: I imagine something like that is more likely. He could be very cagey about precise methods, though I did hear about things like making ghillie suits way before google.
Baud
Via reddit, Hunter Biden has gone too far!
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Let’s revisit the question.
I imagine many, if not most, have. They each likely have their own concerns, goals, and plans. Some may even like Trump. Are we sensing the absurdity of gleaning a single opinion from an entire population yet
ETA: This is actually kind of funny because I esentially agree with both your and Kay’s broader points. Yes, MI Arab Democrats have every right to be mad. Yes, their alternatives are unambiguously worse. This all just doesn’t need to be so heated.
I’m rolling up. You’re both welcome to come sit with me.
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
You’ll kill quality on our side by insisting that Trump is some kind of measure. Literally anyone would be better than Trump. We want ours to be better than “literally anyone”. Trump lowers the bar.
I think this is a primary vote and perhaps we can limit the damage come the general, but I would never dismiss a 100k potential vote loss in MI. You just can’t. That’s why the Biden Administration has traveled there twice to apologize and explain. I cringe when Biden speaks on this. It’s like he has a huge blind spot and is incapable of expressing real concern for Palestinians. It’s baffling to me- I can’t explain it any other way than some kind of bias.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: “22 charges.” Three of them are felonies.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Snoop Dogg has a wine labeled “19 crimes.”
Amateur.
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
DC Democrats seem defensive on it, like they would prefer not to talk about it all. I think they’re hugely uncomfortable with it, knowing that 27k dead civilians out of a 2 million population is a fucking huge number – hence the nutty lashing out of people like Pelosi and Fetterman.
Whitman in MI reportedly handles it adroitly and has managed to hang onto Arab American support, but she’s a governor – it’s easy for her.
Ken
@Baud: In fairness, it looks like about five different crimes, with multiple charges. Piecing it together, I think he and his
friendscriminal gang were smashing car windows to steal whatever they found on the seats, and using the stolen IDs and credit cards to buy booze. Oh, and three of them were underage, thus the “delinquency of a minor” charges.This may even help her carpetbagger campaign, given that her GQP rivals were bragging about how many times they’d been arrested.
Princess
On a scale of Hamas<——->Netanyahu I’m probably further over to the right arrow than most people here. But there is no doubt in my mind that Biden’s #1 danger in this election is people sitting it out who wouldn’t normally, because of the war. I don’t know how great a danger that is but I believe it to be a real one, just from what I’m seeing from normies in my world. Biden needs to address it. That’s a fact. He seems to be beginning to do so. Whether we like it or not, it’s a real thing and getting angry with them or with Kay doesn’t make it go away.
zhena gogolia
@Princess: I’m angry with any voter who puts us in danger of another Trump administration. I don’t care what their reasons are.
Kay
@Baud:
Oh, poor kid. I always feel sorry for them when they get nailed. I watched the Palin daughter’s reality tv show and the truth is that poor girl wasn’t raised at all by her parents – she was out in the world with a tiny child just flailing. Her parents were too busy being Right wing celebrities to teach her anything.
Lucky for him he’s in Blue Colorado where they probably have reasonable, modern criminal laws.
Geminid
@Baud: Clausen wrote about encountering friends while he was out in the field and flinching when one slapped him on the back..
Clausen was investigating the handling
ofdecrypted Japanrse diolomstic messages- the so-called Purple Code. These were so closely held they were kept from the Army’s Pearl Harbor board that investigated the disaster.Clausen was “read into” the program so he could examine the decrypts and select those neccesary for his interviews. Stimson wrote an order that the Navy Secretary co-signed. It required any officer Clausen interviewed to answer all his questions and hold nothing back. At the end of the interview, Clausen would take a sworn deposition.
When Clausen asked witnesses about the Purple Code decrypts, the officers often said, “I have no idea what you’re talking about.” So Clausen would unbutton his shirt and pull the decrypts out of the bomb pouch. They looked very surprised, Clausen wrote.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@zhena gogolia: How did anyone participating in yesterday’s primary help Trump get elected?
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Ken:
Not for this because that kind of crime is basically done against neighbors. Given the insular nature of the godforsakeneasternplainsofcolorado (and tiny population), people in a town there would frown on such shenanigans because they’d know the dumbass kid and he’d know them. They’d see this as an example of that clown not being able to control their kids or teaching them you don’t do that shit to your neighbors.
Matt McIrvin
@zhena gogolia: It’s always the middle of the presidential election. There’s no time when it’s not, any more. And when the stakes are higher, you have more leverage. I actually don’t think it’s fair to tell people to shut up on this, when there’s one issue they overwhelmingly care about and they see the administration as being on the wrong side. And it seems to me that they’ve had an effect on Biden’s behavior.
Kay
On Palin’s daughter’s reality show the daughter had gotten a job – some shitty job at a call center or something, poor thing – and she belatedly realized she would need daycare. So she’s in Los Angeles and looking for any daycare that will take her child on short notice (scary!) and she calls Sarah Palin and Palin completely blows her off with happy talk about how she (daughter) can handle it.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Kay:
Everybody needs to realize that “Blue Colorado” is only a recent thing and very geographically specific. That kid’s located in a traditionally very red part of the state. A lot of this state, geographically, is very red. It just doesn’t have the numbers anymore to counter the population density of Denver and it’s spillover along the Front Range.
Go to a place like Limon or Wellington and it’s as red as back where I was in Central Misery.
And of course Colorado Springs has always been Talibangalist Central, although that too is starting to temper with the spillover demographics from Denver, but only a teeeny-tiny bit.
Kay
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
Okay, but I was talking about criminal laws, which are state level. But a very Red prosecutor would make a difference, even with fairly enlightened state law. It sounds like he had a stolen credit or debit card and also took a car without permission – they often steal from their own parents in these situations.
stacib
@yellowdog: I thought I was the only one concerned about that. I wasn’t really bothered by the uncommitted vote, but the difference in turnout has me worried. I’m telling myself it’s because the Democrats didn’t have a challenger to Biden, so the majority of those folks will be back in November.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
But consider the cultural implications here. Good (white) kid and his mom is a… “pillar” of the community. The good ol’ boy network will keep him safe.
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: Voters who are alienated by Biden’s policies on this war will make up their minds seven months from now. As someone here said yesterday, that is the time to make the hard sell based on the consequences of a Trump win.
Right now, I think it’s best to respect the concerns- and outright anguish- Arab-Americans are feeling.
One aspect of this situation is there are some bad actors trying to exploit it; the usual suspects including the Russian bot-network. They are throwing “apples of discord” in hopes Democrats will fight over them. This is all the more reason, I think, to avoid recriminations that patronize Arab Americans even while many of their votes are still in play.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: About the “consider the alternative” argument– that you should vote in a manner that you believe will tend to produce the best outcome, for the country and the world–this is how *I* vote, but several decades of talking to people about politics has taught me that there’s a non-negligible fraction of the population, a big chunk of the left particularly, who just do not think that way about voting. It’s not that they don’t understand the argument, it’s that they find it repugnant.
They consider their vote an expression of the moral principles they stand for and if a major party candidate violates those principles in some way, it’s their duty to not vote or vote third-party. If this results in the world burning, that’s the system’s fault, not theirs for standing on principle.
This used to really bother me but I think it’s inevitable that you’ll always get some of these people, especially if they’re young. It’s better than being completely disengaged. Some of them eventually come to a more pragmatic position.
zhena gogolia
@Geminid: So asking what their reasoning is means I’m patronizing them? It’s the same question I asked my friends who were concerned about Hillary’s e-mails in 2016.
zhena gogolia
@Matt McIrvin: That’s how we got Trump.
Kay
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
I listened to the police calls of Boebert’s neighbors when her kids were tearing up a residential neighborhood with ATVs and flipping off neighbors who objected – her husband joined in, threatening people. The Boebert’s are not loved in their local community. Her kids have been out of control since she landed in Congress.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Kay: Apple trees yield apples
Matt McIrvin
@stacib: The difference in turnout is normal for an election with an essentially uncontested incumbent. Most people don’t vote in primaries when there are no stakes. You have to be a political junkie or consider it your civic duty.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I wonder if Biden realizes that when he talks so eloquently about the tragedy of Ukranian civilian deaths Arab Americans are listening and wondering why we seem to have two standards for civilian casualties.
Just jumps right out at me and I’m not an Arab American. At least be consistent. If civilian deaths are a tragedy than Palestinian civilian deaths are too. I know that makes them uncomfortable because Russia is responsible for one set and Israel is responsible for the other, but that is the reality.
schrodingers_cat
@Matt McIrvin: Its a privileged position to pooh pooh harm reduction. That’s how we got Bush II and Trump. And these same people will criticize Ds for not fixing all the problems immediately but will completely ignore what Rs do.
Their “activism” includes dumping manure in front of Nancy Pelosi’s house when she is not even in the leadership, not letting HRC speak. These people whoever they are hate Democrats. This is just a new stick they have found. FWIW I am not sure that they are even Arab Americans, they look mostly white to me.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
It seems to be “well, Russia is our enemy and Israel is an ally” but that doesn’t have jack shit to do with civilian deaths. We suppsoedly oppose those, no matter who is doing the killing. It’s another way of erasing the Palestinians- “well, Israel is an ally so we ignore those deaths”. What?
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@zhena gogolia: I’d argue what you’re doing here is a large component of why Hillary lost.
We have a fairly broad mix of views under the D umbrella here at Balloon Juice. I think it’s fair to look at it as some form of microcosm.
To say a candidate or incumbent doesn’t agree with me on an issue is one thing. Obama was “wrong” on gay marriage. He moved. And I suspect he was working not too get ahead of public opinion. In another instance, he helped shift my opinion on energy policy. W did similar things for me on immigration.
Now I look at what I was seeing from people in 2016. If what you’re seeing is “Democrats broadly don’t agree with me on this,” that’s when you start looking at other parties or staying home. Never mind when there’s active hostility.
A convincing leader can bring people in when they’re making a principled stand despite the party. The party can lose a leader support when the persuadables are less convinced where the leader even stands.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: The tunnel network is huge. Before the war a Hamas official claimed it was 500 kilometers in extent and so far it seems at least that.
The Israelis cannot destroy all of it, and in any event Hamas still controls the network in the southern area including those leading into Egypt. The Egyptians have been destroying tunnels on their side for a couple of years now, even pumping seawater into them, and they’re not nearly finished.
We can debate about the war here, but it will be resolved by nations closer to the conflict. Right now, the Qatari-mediated process is the only viable plan for a ceasefire. There is also a larger plan proposed by the Arab states that may well be the template for a permanent ceasefire. This would be backed by a Security Council resolution.
So that is what I am watching now. Axios reporter Barak Ravid is a good source on these negotiations, and Laura Rozen aggregates a lot of other good sources. They both post on Twitter and other platforms.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
Why shouldn’t people express their frustration with voters that they perceive to be acting in a counterproductive way?
Baud
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
Yeah no, that’s not why Hillary lost.
Omnes Omnibus
@stacib: Biden got nearly four times the number of votes that Obama got in 2012 (the last time the Dems had an incumbent running for reelection). Source.
daveNYC
That’s pretty racist.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Omnes Omnibus: Assuming an actual counterproductive act, sure, complain away; but from what I’ve seen, they’ve failed to argue the counterproductivity of this particular protest to begin with.
It’s a gottdamned primary. A million people could each write a letter to the President about a grievance with one choice or another of varying degrees of consequence. He won’t read them.
This is one safe opportunity to state together, loudly, vaguely; “I have a complaint.” Knowing the size of this contingent is likely good for the Biden campaign. More will happen before the election.
Anyway, if these people really wanted to hurt Biden, they would’ve voted Phillips.
opiejeanne
@Baud: Thank you.
Baud
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
Even ratfuckers have standards.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Baud: What I described, my interactions here, were legitimately the only reason I ever considered voting against HRC. Because it’s not just here. It’s in public and on TV and I had to listen to the Trump assholes too and it was all so maddening. You’re actions echo through those you interact with and “the other guy” isn’t ever the only person with asshole supporters.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: FWIW I am not bothered by the uncommitted vote for two main reasons. First, the primary is a time to vote your heart not your head. Second, Michigan seem to have a tradition of people voting uncommitted in primaries.
ETA: That being said, everyone’s PTSD from 2016 manifests differently. Wanting people to consider the alternative before they take actions that will arguably harm Biden is not an unreasonable take.
Baud
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
Lots of men felt that way. But it’s because they’re men, not because of Hillary’s supporters. That’s why she lost. Enough men bandied together to bring her down.
ETA: Right wingers do this all the time. Claim they’re voting the way they do because Dems are so mean.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Baud: Well, if it wasn’t completely clear, I did vote for Hillary. And FWIW, the clear majority of the problem Hillary supporters I personally encountered were white and the majority of them were men. The call is coming from inside the house, bruh. We all live here together.
Baud
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
I know you did, and good for you, but others did not because of the excuses they came up with.
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: I hesitated about the word “patronize” but I wrote it anyway because I could not come up with a better one for the purpose. What I mean by “patronize” is telling Arab Americans to suck it up because the Democratic Party is their best option. The Democratic Party may be in fact their best option, but that shouldn’t mean we dismiss their real concerns and their attempt to express them in a primary.
I basically support President Biden’s handling of this war, but it’s just a fact that Israel could never have prosecuted this war at the intense tempo it has without the munitions and weapons we have been airlifting and sealifting to Israel since October 8. If I had relatives in Gaza or the West Bank, I’d be furious, and if someone told me right now that I have to vote for Joe Biden anyway I might resolve never to vote for a Democrat ever again.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
This again.
Omnes Omnibus
@Geminid: Good thing zhena gogolia is a commenter on a blog and not in charge of voter outreach for Biden, right?
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Omnes Omnibus: Everything we do is voter outreach, whether we think of it as such or not
ETA: Consider my MAGA before MAGA was a thing father often justifying his political beliefs on his experience as a police officer, both on the job and various instances of seeking employment. None of the relevent decisions made involved Trump, yet they led there.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Well, then we’d all better watch our mouths, hadn’t we?
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: What he’s doing is bog standard US President behavior, both parties, especially for veterans of the 9/11-Second Intifada era of foreign policy. I’m an old guy and my reflexive reaction is “what are you gonna do?” But, yeah, that’s exactly what people don’t like about it.
Up to now, Biden has shown a remarkable ability to learn from past mistakes and evolve policy in directions that I wouldn’t have expected. I think the fact that this started with a massive Hamas terrorist attack on civilians, and that doesn’t seem like a viable party to negotiate with, triggered some old-fashioned thinking and rhetoric. But it seems like he’s learning on his feet.
One thing that worries me about the protesters is that they seem to think Biden is controlling Netanyahu and can end the war at any time, and I think he’s not and he can’t. That’s the whole problem.
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: Look, I was responding to a general argument being made here and she happened to state in a succint form. I wasn’t picking on her personally.
But I think what I said about “apples of discord” being tossed in was worth saying because it applies to these arguments and a lot of others.
Kay
Searching for Bad Democrats to villify every time someone disagrees with Biden is not an action grounded in working with a coalition. Arab Americans in Michigan are part of our coalition. The point of a coalition is not to protect the most powerful people – the point of a coalition is to protect one another. It’s not Biden TO individual voter. It’s voter to voter. If you’re mad that Arab Americans are not considering the needs of the whole coalition, well, read this thread and recognize that the coalition is not considering the needs of Arab Americans. It has to be reciprocal. You can’t jettison disobedient coalition members and claim you’re working for the whole. You’re defining the whole to exclude them.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Omnes Omnibus: I suppose so. We need to get the media in here though because this issue I’ll validate 💯 both sides approved. Gaza is a tragedy, people should be allowed to hurt and express their hurt how they see fit. Come November, though, we need our eye on the ball.
tam1MI
The ENTIRE BASIS of their little stunt is, “Do exactly as we say, or we will throw the election to Donald Trump”. They are not even attempting to hide the threat.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
Respectfully, “the protestors think Bidne can control Netanyahu” is kind of silly. They, more than anyone, know the belligerence and unreasonableness of Netanyahu. It tells me you’re not listening to them. They want THE UNITED STATES to do certain things. I don’t know how they make that any clearer.
One of their arguments is Netanyahu is screwing Biden deliberately, so Biden will lose the election and Trump – their preferred candidate, will be in. They think Biden is living in some past time where Israel was Left of center or Center. They consider Israel part of the far Right coalition that is anti Biden. They think he has a blind spot and refuses to consider that things have changed.
stacib
@Matt McIrvin: Your last paragraph is what is twirling me emotionally. I understand that people think Biden can do more, but why is he the only one with agency here? He has commitments as the U.S. president in regard to Israel (and I don’t like that either, but…), although unlike Kay, I haven’t heard the dismissiveness in his tone when talking about the tragedy that’s happening to the Palestinian people. Maybe my fear of another trump presidency has forever jacked up my political emotions.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
I was thinking more “we’re here, see us, help us.”
Warblewarble
Interesting that we had period of silence from John”ra ra Israel” Kirby in the time leading up to the primary. Kirby’s ignorant belligerence, and refusal of any empathy to the Palestinian people have not reflected well on this administration.
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: What are these leading questions for? Of course I do not think the Commenter is in charge of voter outreach for Biden.
With a topic as controversial as this, anyone making a positive assertion is sticking their neck out. The safer play is to not make any, just lay back and snipe at those who do.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
Also- just a minor point but I think it’s important in this context. This is not just Netanyahu. We were told at the onset of this that there was a “war council” that would moderate the far Right influence – is there a war council? Then it isn’t just Netanyahu. That’s one of the things that make me feel hopeless about it – this campaign is being conducted at least in part of by people we were told were NOT far Right. Jesus. I shudder to think what it would look like without the war council. 50,000 civilians dead?
Kay
@stacib:
Well, his administration has heard the dismissiveness and so has his VP – they apologized for it– and Harris probably leaked her concerns to Politico (good for her- that’s how the game is played) so BJ seems to be a bit of an outlier here, not me. I think it’s established that Joe Biden has not covered himslef in glory when speaking (or not speaking, in this case) of massive Palestinian civilian casualties.
Miss Bianca
@Kay: So, you have definitive information that all those 100k “uncommitted” votes were from Arab-Americans? Interesting!
Also, it looks like the “uncommitted” level of votes was…just about exactly the same as it ever is in a Michigan primary.
In other words, sure, Biden could be working on his messaging about the Palestinians, along with, you know, actually working on dealing with the Gaza situation. But that big old “protest vote” looks like a virtual non-factor to me.
And as for the “activists” who have pre-emptively rejected any of the Biden Administration’s efforts at meeting their demands for “immediate ceasefire NOW, damn the real-world complications”…what’s the word you like to use? “Ninnies”? Yes. I think that term suits them admirably.
daveNYC
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: I mean what are you expecting? For plenty of Americans this isn’t just an abstract ‘genocide is bad’ situation. They’ve lost family members to American weapons used by a country that, so far, has the full support of the American government. ‘The other guy would be worse’ can be both true and also not even close to a convincing argument when the current guy’s policies are supporting slaughter on this scale.
There’s plenty of policy differences where you can tell the other person to suck it up and reasonably expect that they do so. Support for War Crimes really isn’t one of them.
Kay
@Miss Bianca:
I think “ever is” is an exxageration. There have been primaries with 12% uncommitted. There have also been primaries with 2% uncommitted. I don’t think you can pick the outlier 14% because it looks better for us. Also- you have to count and not just use the percentage. A 12% that is 20k people is less of a problem than a 14% that is 100k people (in this case).
Biden cannot blow off 100k voters in MI. That’s insane. Like it or not, this is our coalition. I often disagree with members of our coalition (not on this) but I recognize that we are one.
Miss Bianca
@Baud: Snoop’s “19 Crimes” red is actually really damn good. It’s become my “go-to” red table wine.
daveNYC
Previous Democratic primaries in Michigan had about a 2% Uncommitted vote. Roughly 20k out of 1.2-1.6M votes. 2008 had 38%, but again, that was with Biden, Obama, and some others not on the ballot and telling their supporters to vote Uncommitted, so really not a comparable situation.
Miss Bianca
@Kay:
Funny you should mention this, I’m actually working on an article right now about a local municipal judge explaining to a city council work session about how municipal court charges work and how, basically, thanks to a lot of national and state law changes regarding civil offenses, she has relatively few tools in her toolbox anymore to compel court appearances or compliance with paying civil fines!
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: maybe there’s a disconnect here: the people who get my attention tend to be the ones who jump into unrelated discussions going on about “Genocide Joe”, and they may just be trolls unconnected to the protest movement per se.
Elizabelle
@Miss Bianca: Somehow, I trust you with wine recommendations. Will give Snoop’s 19 Crimes a try. It is gently priced, at least in Virginia.
Matt McIrvin
@stacib:
Oh, I heard it from him and Blinken early on–in the form of whataboutism mostly: “you call that evil, what about the evil of killing civilians at a music festival?” which was beside the point in what struck me as a very “9/11 9/11” way.
Geminid
@Kay: It’s a “War Cabinet” with powers ratified by the Knesset on October 12. its basic purpose was to constrain Netanyahu because he is a self-interested liar. Reports are that at the time, he was also in a state of shock and not functioning well.
The War Cabinet puts Netanyahu, Defense Minister Gallant and former Defense Minister Gantz in charge of major military decisions. Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot and Likud diplomatic hack Ron Dermer are non-voting Observers. Their function is to give advice and keep Neranyahu from lying too much about deliberations.
The practical effect has been insulate Gallant and current IDF Chief of Staff Halevi from Netanyahu’s meddling. Their goal of ending Hamas rule in Gaza remains. The US still shares that goal but we are pressing for a ceasefire before Ramadan begins March 8. Then we will try to get a permanent ceasefire along the lines proposed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and a Security Council resolution that ratifies it.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
One recalls Fox News coverage of the Black Lives Matter protests focusing on local property damage rather than the protestors’ message
ETA: My point being; Faux News was wrong to shift the focus in that way, weren’t they?
Miss Bianca
@daveNYC: btw, where are you and Kay getting your “historical Michigan primary numbers”? I’ve tried Googling for them but my Google-Fu is apparently weak on this one.
Uncle Cosmo
@Baud: Road apple doesn’t fall far from the horse’s ass.
stacib
@Matt McIrvin: Ah, okay, it’s becoming clearer now. I didn’t “hear” the dismissiveness because I kinda felt the same way. Hamas HAD to know what hell they were going to release on the Palestinian people, and they HAD to know how Netanyahu would respond. As much as I agree that Bibi is committing war crimes now, I thought he did exactly as any other country would have done if their people had been attacked. From our side, what I heard was Biden warning him not to be as stupid as the U.S. after 9/11. advocating for humanitarian aid and sending dollars to Gaza to aid in the relief.
I’m also wondering, why aren’t people nearly as mad at the folks in the region who are doing precious little other than lip service to help these people. I have a friend from Egypt who I’ve had to totally stop responding to. His entire conversation is Biden and the U.S. are evil, evil, evil and yet when I ask what his country is doing, there are justifications on why they aren’t in a position to help.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Despite decades of being generally aware of and sympathetic to the Palestinians’ plight, it did take me until this year to learn something. This statement makes me question what I learned.
Does Gaza share a border with Egypt? (Asking here for conversational effect but also immediately consulting Google)
schrodingers_cat
@daveNYC: What is? Observing that the people who were protesting outside NP’s home look white?
Here is the link, people can judge for themselves.
They could be Arab, its possible.
In my neck of the woods most Code Pink women are white.
schrodingers_cat
@Miss Bianca: Check out Dana Houle on Twitter, he has numbers and the analysis and other sources too. He is originally from Michigan.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@schrodingers_cat: Hey, don’t get me wrong, I have my problems with white people and the notion of whiteness generally. A favorite target of mine, I hit white men upthread.
I think it’s the fixation and the unnecessary redirects from not explicitly racial things that comes across a little…eversorian.
Warblewarble
Knowing what Nethanyahu and his “restraining” war cabinet have been doing to excess ,Biden bypassed Congress to provide more arms for the slaughter and played down reports of civilian deaths.
Citizen Alan
@lowtechcyclist: It is establishment of religion, but it is not the establishment of any recognizable Christian religion, since “personhood at conception” as a concept is not found anywhere in the bible.
Miss Bianca
@schrodingers_cat: I will, thx!
Citizen Alan
@JWR: I’m still waiting for someone to tell me what specifically. Biden could be doing different given the reality of this conflict happening in a traditionally allied nation with whom we have treaty obligations and which is also a religious fetish object for somewhere between 25-45% of the voting public as well as the party which presently controls the house of representatives and can block anything in the senate.
Denali5
No doubt that the atrocities of October 8 did cause massive overreaction in response. I did read, however, that the settlements are in places in the middle- in other words, the zone created in 1967 after the war that was supposedly a space between Palestine and Israel. For too long the United States looked the other way as illegal settlements were happening.
VFX Lurker
The news reported this “uncommitted” campaign for weeks, making it appear bigger than it was. I don’t think actual vulnerable voters want to F around in the 2024 Presidential election.
Subsole
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
We try.
They say they don’t care.
Next?
Geminid
@stacib: Egypt has played a critical role in the ceasefire talks, and also in formulating a plan for governing Gaza after a more permanent ceasefire. They and Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have worked up a common strategy that the US supports.
This is all being done behind closed doors though, and reported second hand by journalists like Barak Ravid. The current talks are between CIA Director Burns, his Israeli and counterparts and Qatar’s Prime Minister al Thani, who is acting as attorney for Hamas. They don’t have news conferences.
Prime Minister al Thani will sometimes give an interview to Al Jazeera, but the reporters don’t ask probing questions; the PM’s family runs Qatar and controls Al Jazeera..
persistentillusion
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Bullshit. COS has been gradually softening on the Rs for years. Doug Lamborn, the long-time (since 2006, ask me how I know) Rep for CD-5, is retiring and everybody is running to replace him.
I’ve been here for 30 years and involved in local D politics for more of that time.
VFX Lurker
Geminid
@Denali5: I don’t think this is so. The US and other countries consider many of the Israeli settlements in the West Bank to be illegal. But the areas in southern Israel where Hamas attacked have been Israel’s sovereign territory since 1948, and the US and other nations recognize it as such. Most of the kibbutzes and farms which were attacked were established after the 1948 War of Independence and some existed before that.
They are called “occupied territory” by those of Israel’s opponents who consider all of pre-1967 Israel to be occupied territory.
Subsole
@Kay: How are they adjusting to abortion bans?
It’s not a question of ‘normal’. It’s a question of “these people want to no-fooling hurt you, and we need you to help us stop them.”
Subsole
@Kay:
Yeah. And when they did travel there, they got told to fuck off. The people who “just want us to listen” refused to sit down and talk.
Thats not registering disatissfaction or seeking leverage. That’s just looking for a punching bag.
Manyakitty
@zhena gogolia: this.
Subsole
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
They.
Are.
Threatening.
To.
Sit.
Out.
The.
General.
Will y’all please stop treating us like we are stupid? Obviously we are taking this as an indicator of later behavior.
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thank you. Better said than I could.
Manyakitty
@Omnes Omnibus: acceptable. Post 2016 PTSD is a thing. People never got over that before COVID hit and we are all a bunch of broken toys now. Feels like the whole country has gone feral.
Manyakitty
@Geminid: which is ultimately the best outcome we can hope for at this point.
Matt
JFC the ghouls in those tweets who’ve transmuted “stop aiding and abetting a genocide” into “activism”. Despicable, soulless motherfuckers all.
They’d happily lose in November if it gives them the chance to keep punching left.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Subsole: It appears to me that what they are saying is despite their misgivings with the President, their interest is still with the Democrats
Then again, it’s hard to read anything too specific into 100,000 “uncommitted” votes. You are simply expressing fear, which is valid, but not trashing our compatriots who are hurting.
zhena gogolia
@Kay: My point is that they’re not considering their own needs. If I thought that Trump was going to push for a two-state solution on day one and cut off all aid to Israel, then I would see their position as rational. It isn’t.
Subsole
@Citizen Alan:
And the pure and sainted little lambs of Hamas rejecting every cease fire we propose, while failing to return the hostages (you remember them? The ones being beaten and gang-raped in those tunnels under Gaza? The ones the brave, blameless freedom fighters of Gaza are refusing to return but don’t worry, we totally didn’t execute them, guys.)
Don’t forget that part.
Subsole
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
I appreciate you recognizing that. Truly. A lot of people don’t.