H5N1 Update: Unsurprisingly, the more evidence of ‘bird flu’ infection we look for, the more we find. My totally-amateur advice remains, for the moment: Stay away from raw milk; be scrupulous about hygiene after any contact with wild animals or livestock (I assume everyone’s already disinfecting bird feeders & gloving up when refilling them, for instance); keep your cats indoors, and keep an eye out for sudden deaths or disappearances among your neighbor ferals (infected cats tend to die rapidly from brain swelling).
"We focus so much on Trump’s stupidity that we forget how deliberately evil he is. He lied to the public for his own political gain. A research panel concluded the US could’ve avoided 40% of all covid deaths under a different president." — @SER1897 https://t.co/t4wLN1v37J
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 19, 2024
Good news: The Biobot Wastewater Monitoring dashboard continues to show a gradual, persistent decline in virus levels for all parts of the United States.
Last night's update: 64,696 new cases, 757 new deaths https://t.co/CCli3w1nFN
— BNO News (@BNOFeed) April 22, 2024
So far this year, more than 3 million cases of COVID have been reported in the U.S., causing 265,966 hospitalizations and 26,836 deaths.
— BNO News (@BNOFeed) April 21, 2024
======
An unknown future pathogen could have far more devastating consequences than SARS-CoV-2. But, the goal of developing the first-ever global pandemic accord by next month's deadline is far from certain. https://t.co/TUREfvOmyt
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 21, 2024
Washington Post gift link:
In late 2021, as the world reeled from the arrival of the highly contagious omicron variant of the coronavirus, representatives of almost 200 countries met — some online, some in-person in Geneva — hoping to forestall a future worldwide outbreak by developing the first-ever global pandemic accord.
The deadline for a deal? May 2024…
But even as negotiators pack in extra hours, the goal of clinching a legally binding pact by next month is far from certain — despite a new draft document being delivered in recent days. The main sticking point involves access to vital information about new threats that may emerge — and to the vaccines and medicines that could contain that threat.
The backdrop to today’s negotiations is starkly different from the years after World War II when countries united around principles guaranteeing universal human rights and protecting public health. The unifying fear of covid has been replaced by worries about repeating the injustices that tainted the response to the pandemic, deepening rifts between the Global North and the Global South.
“The trauma of the covid-19 pandemic has seeped into the negotiations,” said Ellen ‘t Hoen, a lawyer and public health advocate who specializes in intellectual property policies. Representatives of the WHO’s 194 member countries, she said, are looking backward rather than forward.
The reasons are clear. A paper published in October 2022 in the journal Nature showed that by the end of 2021, nearly 50 percent of the global population had received two doses of coronavirus vaccine but that huge disparities existed between high-income countries, where coverage was close to 75 percent, and many low-income countries, where less than 2 percent of the population had received two doses. At the same time, South Africa, where the omicron variant was identified, felt punished by travel bans instead of being praised for its scientists’ epidemiological acumen and openness…
High-income countries want guarantees that samples and genetic data about any new pathogen will be quickly shared to allow for the development of tests, vaccines and treatments. Developing nations, where pathogens such as AIDS, Ebola and MERS emerged in recent decades, want guarantees of benefits, such as equal access to vaccines and collaboration with local scientists…
CNN: The next pandemic threat demands action now
"The US and other governments around the world need to take H5N1 seriously and demonstrate that we’ve learned the lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic that turned our lives upside-down for years."
— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) April 21, 2024
Toxic: How the search for the origins of COVID-19 turned politically poisonous https://t.co/oEPwALy6DH
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 22, 2024
Ireland: Rise in JN.1 Covid cases reported
'34.7% of cases were associated with outbreaks in hospital or healthcare settings.'
Irish Mirror Onlinehttps://t.co/c6LAxWnlaB
— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) April 18, 2024
Brazil: Risk of death 3 times higher in kids with COVID-19 than with other respiratory viruses
6.5% risk of death from COVID, 2.3% for flu.
CIDRAPhttps://t.co/OIkzyoYSqk
— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) April 22, 2024
======
I’m not on Facebook, but the PDF here is nine simple & informational slides. If you *are* on Facebook, sharing is caring!
Yale School of Public Health
What We Know (And Don't) About Covid-19's Effect On The Immune System
Original Facebook link: https://t.co/CLQAKt0CPUhttps://t.co/o31kC9duae (pdf file) pic.twitter.com/H2cPUP40hc
— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) April 22, 2024
An infection can upset your microbiome, and if certain gut fungi run riot, this can kick the immune system into overdrive. https://t.co/TVfMR8lODt
— WIRED (@WIRED) April 19, 2024
From Denmark: Good choice to mask up in retail stores, at least during transmission peaks:
A clever and unique study documents that much Covid transmission occurred via shopping in retail storeshttps://t.co/yfFDdnXWBV @PNASNews @ThaisLaerkholmJ @CEBI_UCPH pic.twitter.com/FwaM2u4F1I
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 20, 2024
Johns Hopkins: AI can now detect COVID-19 in lung ultrasound images
The AI analyzes ultrasound lung images to spot B-lines, which appear as bright, vertical abnormalities and indicate inflammation in patients with pulmonary complications.
— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) April 16, 2024
Repurposed: Intranasal administration of neomycin, an antibiotic, led to protection in mouse and hamster models vs Covid, and (neosporin) raised interferon expression in humans
https://t.co/s73T4qPjyT@PNASNews @VirusesImmunity @tianyangmao @YaleIBIO pic.twitter.com/r2NkrKAKsm— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 22, 2024
This is the cover of @Brain1878 today. Over 355.00 people were analyzed. How are we going to treat all these people with dementia?
"We found a higher incidence of encephalopathy, dementia, seizure/epilepsy, brain fog, and myelitis within the acute phase from 7 days to 3 months… https://t.co/D5TrUQoGsr pic.twitter.com/Xo5ua5FwLL
— Danielle Beckman (@DaniBeckman) April 20, 2024
The story of frequent persistence of #SARSCoV2 in multiple organs after mild Covid keeps getting stronger, and correlates (odds ratio >5) with symptoms of #LongCovid
🆕@TheLancetInfDishttps://t.co/keC9In0bQS pic.twitter.com/XqhXn8TD59— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 23, 2024
Why are older adults much more susceptible to severe Covid? Multiple liabilities: reduced ability to clear the virus, immune signaling dysregulation, and an untoward pro-inflammatory response of genes and proteinshttps://t.co/WEMoDjOyNV @ScienceTM pic.twitter.com/XSn7L1RsGo
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 17, 2024
Are we FLiRTing with a new Covid wave? New data on age-specific Covid interactions and self-amplifying vaccines. In the new Ground Truths (link in profile).
Thanks @JPWeiland @dfocosi @siamosolocani @BenjMurrell and so many others for continuing to keeping close 👀 on #SARSCoV2— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 18, 2024
… The real question now is whether this takeover by FLiRT mutations, a replacement in the works for JN.1, will translate to a new wave. My impression is that it won’t since they are mutations we’ve been exposed to before (specifically F456L and R346T). It’s hard to know for sure, since the context is quite different, now in a BA.2.86 framework rather than preceding major variants, and there are other mutations outside the spike, and changes in secondary and tertiary structure of the virus that are not taken into account. My projection is that we could see a wavelet but not a significant new wave of infections as a result of the FLiRT variants in the next couple of months. I think it will take a much bigger challenge of our immune response than what we see with the FLiRTs. We can’t necessarily count on that optimistic perspective. Time will tell.
Higher risk individuals, which includes people age 65+ and immunocompromised, are eligible to get a second monovalent XBB.1.5 shot. There haven’t been any lab studies yet to determine how well that updated vaccine will fare against the FLiRT variants, but we’ll probably see some soon. The extent of immune evasiveness from such data will also help us predict the clinical toll of these variants.
======
From a (useful, unfortunately) thread:
1/n I’m seeing on social media and popular podcasts, awful nonsense and false claims about Covid immunizations in pregnancy causing autism in newborns. This is dangerous health disinformation at multiple levels. Here is the real story.
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) April 23, 2024
12/n Watch out for bad guys with an agenda. They don’t care about you, your partner or spouse, or your family.
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) April 23, 2024
But, in the short term at least, the general trend is good (another thread):
1/n Some good news, according to CDC we’re almost at the lowest number of new Covid hospitalizations in the U.S.since the beginning of the pandemic… pic.twitter.com/Yw17S9b3tt
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) April 13, 2024
6/n so maybe good news for proms and graduations coming up in the next few weeks
— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) April 13, 2024
COVID-19 in Prisons
People inside prisons died almost three and a half times more frequently than the free population.
Over 6,000 incarcerated people died in the first year of the pandemic.
The Marshall Projecthttps://t.co/7rSLOEIYgS
— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) April 19, 2024
Happy Can-we-inject-light-or-disinfectant-into-the-body Day for all who celebrate. trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-st…
— Philip Bump (@pbump.com) Apr 23, 2024 at 9:04 AM
Don’t inject bleach.
And don’t vote for the guy who told you to inject bleach. https://t.co/4ggDwycPlY
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) April 23, 2024
Betty Cracker
Keeping cats indoors is good advice no matter what, though cats don’t always agree.
Baud
I’m happy that Nature values your work and wants to see more of it.
Lapassionara
As always, AL, many thanks for gathering all this information and sharing it with us. How could anyone think Trump should be allowed back in the White House?
Baud
@Lapassionara:
I want a sane, competent president, just not that sane, competent president.
OzarkHillbilly
Happy Bleach Day to one and all.
NotMax
@OzarkHillbilly
Anyone want a nice slice of urinal cake?
//
New Deal democrat
The DOOOMerism of BNO News is completely out of line. Both Biobot and the CDC reported continued declines by 80% and 90% respectively from last winter’s peaks in wastewater particles. This is close to last summer’s lows of May through July.
As Dr. Peter Hotez alludes to, as a result hospitalizations declined during the last reporting week of April 13 to 6406. Only one week during the entire pandemic has been lower: last June 24 at 6325.
Deaths also continued to decline during their last complete reporting week of March 22 to 779. During the entire pandemic, only mid-May through mid-August last year had lower death counts.
Since hospitalizations and then deaths are likely to follow the trajectory of wastewater, that means that within the next several weeks we are likely to set new all-time lows in hospitalizations of 3000 to 6000 and by Memorial Day all-time lows in deaths between 250 and 500 per week.
Although there are certainly issues related to long COVID, I am really heartened by this. Every year we are setting new lower lows. COVID is rapidly approaching a mortality profile similar to the flu. It’s worth noting that all of the important new variants of the last two years – BA.2.12.1, BA.4&5, XBB, and JN.1 – have all been descendants of the original BA.2. So long as this remains the case, I suspect the longer trend of continued annual declines with seasonal variations, will remain in place.
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax: Anybody need a rectal light instrument?
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
Who doesn’t? It’s dark up in there.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: I’m a caver, I’m used to going to places where the sun never shines.
NotMax
@OzarkHillbilly
“
gulp
Please tell me that’s only a stalagmite.”;)
p.a.
I would not be the person to advise anyone to inject bleach, but since tRumpists consider him a stable genius, why wouldn’t someone listen to a stable genius? Before November at least.
Baud
@p.a.:
Biden is doing his part by telling people not to inject bleach.
Spanky
@Baud: HE’S NOT THE BOSS OF ME!
Anne Laurie
@New Deal democrat: Consistent doomerism such as BNO’s has its own usefulness, in my view; when *they* can’t find any potential disasters to hype, well, that’s GREAT news for the rest of us!
I wouldn’t necessarily start posting their links if we were starting from scratch, but since I (we) have been reading them since the height of the pandemic, it’s a gauge.
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax: Stalactite. “When the mites go up, the tites come down.”
Anne Laurie
Believe me, I was looking forward to scaling these posts back even further — biweekly or even monthly. On the other hand, the 1996 ‘bird flu’ epidemic was when I started paying attention to potential coronavirus pandemics, so it feels a little ‘cycle of life’… (aka, Murphy the Trickster God playing with me).
NotMax
@p.a.
White on the outside, whiter than white on the inside.
//
Wapiti
@OzarkHillbilly: I thought you were offering a Bud Light, not a butt light!
lowtechcyclist
@New Deal democrat:
Speaking of which, a comparison between BNO and CDC weekly counts of Covid deaths, for the most recent five weeks when CDC’s were complete:
Week BNO CDC
2/26 1569 1271
3/04 1652 1221
3/11 1258 1047
3/18 1311 982
3/25 1116 779
And BNO doesn’t show its work or source its numbers anywhere.
NotMax
@OzarkHillbilly
Presume you’re familiar with this.
New Deal democrat
@lowtechcyclist: Agree re BNO’s not sourcing their numbers.
FWIW, I may have found where the case count comes from:
https://www.threads.net/@jpweilandmodels
He appears to be extrapolating from the wastewater numbers (which is fine). Not sure about his absolute numbers though. 200,000 new cases a day (1.4m a week) seems awfully high for these levels, unless the vast majority are asymptomatic.
BTW, just to be clear, my criticism of BNO is not a criticism of AL.
OzarkHillbilly
@Wapiti: “Life is too short to drink cheap beer.”
Soprano2
@Betty Cracker: I wish I could keep mine indoors, but having a dog makes that hard when he’s determined to go outside. I think if I didn’t have the dog I could eventually get him happy with being inside.
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax: Well, not personally…
That is one cave I never had any desire to see. I don’t deal with excessive heat so well.
sab
Thanks for cats and bird flu warning remimder.
Another reason I don’t feel guilty about letting the neighbors’ mostly outdoor cat move in with us last October. She escaped once, spent the afternoon doing whatever, and came home at dusk and hasn’t been out since. The neighbors were home, but she came back here not there.
Audobon Society website has instructions on washing bird feeders.
NotMax
@OzarkHillbilly
“Son, it’s in the water.”
:)
unrelatedwaffle
@p.a.: Still furious we bothered stopping the cult members from drinking the bleach. It’s a free country!
Betty
Bottom line on the Facebook slides is that Long Covid is a serious problem and we still don’t know what to do as bout it. If you haven’t suffered from it, getting vaccinated regularly helps prevent it.
artem1s
The deaths could have been avoided if TIFG had used Obama’s pandemic playbook. He wouldn’t have even had to tell anyone where they got the info. He could have taken credit if it worked and blamed Obama if it didn’t. But instead he and the Traitor Tots were intent on making a profit off other’s pain and suffering. And of course TIFG was hyper focused on destroying Obama’s legacy instead of doing his f*cking job.
TBone
Jiminy F. Cricket
https://www.abcactionnews.com/man-dies-after-613-day-covid-19-infection-that-underwent-50-mutations
I am immunocompromised with persistent infection. No one in our medical community cares though *shrugs
Citizen Alan
I do believe that the next global pandemic will probably kill us all. Because the republicans and the maga freaks will totally destroy our governmental and health care infrastructure for dealing with pandemics out of paranoia and spite.
Also, if Hillary had become President and the COVID death toll been half what it was under Shitgibbon, she would have been impeached. And probably tried for crimes against humanity.
Cacti
As I’ve mentioned before, COVID took my wife’s father a month before the vaccine became available. He was an immuno-compromised person who had managed the avoid being infection for almost a year. Then he caught it, had to be hospitalized and was dead a month later.
I know hate is a strong word, but it fits here. I hate Donald Trump in a visceral and personal way for the hurt he caused my family, and probably always will. He should never be near any position of public responsibility again.
YY_Sima Qian
The AP reporting on how research into the origins of COVID-19 became quickly politicized & thus politically sensitive inside & outside of the PRC is very good! Depressing how science so quickly fell victim to authoritarian pathologies in the PRC, nativist/populist politics in the US, & heightening Sino-US Great Power Competition. It also presaged the craziness over lab leak, therapeutics & vaccines all over the world.
glc
One more (nothing special, but research goes on) –
Blood Biomarkers Reveal the Hidden World of Long COVID
Jay
Thank you, Anne Laurie.
ColoradoGuy
@YY_Sima Qian: I was always puzzled why the CPC thought the “lab leak” theory was so much worse than the “wet-market” theory. It’s one thing to close a lab, take the reputational hit internationally, but closing all the wet markets in China would be damn near impossible. Worse, the wet markets could never re-open, because they inherently promote zoonotic transmission. I’m not sure the Chinese people would tolerate a permanent closing of the wet markets and a transition to Western-style sanitary markets.