I’m just going to do a quick update tonight covering the basics.
We’re continuing to see Trump and his natsec team’s new new position on Ukraine be articulated. This time by the Vice President of a Thousand Names:
JD Vance: “We’re done with the funding of the Ukraine war business. We want to bring about a peaceful settlement to this thing.”
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) August 10, 2025 at 10:13 AM
What about Senator Jubilation T. Cornpone?
Senator Graham believes Ukraine will not expel all Russian forces and Russia will not advance on Kyiv, so a territorial exchange is likely in the end. He also argues that continued arms support for Ukraine is essential to deter Russia with Europe’s strongest army.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Last night I wrote that more betrayal from Trump and his natsec team was coming. And here it is.
German Chancellor Merz:
Ukrainian and European leaders cannot accept the discussion or even deciding on territorial issues between Russia and the United States. I assume the American government sees it the same way.
— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Unfortunately, the American government – e.g. Trump and his natsec team – do not see it the same way.
And, as always, hope is not a strategy.
European leaders are seeking to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump before his planned meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska later this week, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 10, citing people familiar with the matter.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) August 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
European leaders are seeking to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump before his planned meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska later this week, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 10, citing people familiar with the matter.
The outreach comes ahead of the Trump-Putin talks scheduled for Aug. 15 and follows a weekend of diplomacy between U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials. Vice President JD Vance met with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the U.K. on Aug. 9, and EU ambassadors were briefed on the discussions a day later.
The bloc’s foreign ministers are due to hold a virtual meeting on Aug. 11, according to Bloomberg.
As part of ongoing U.S.-Russia discussions, Putin told special envoy Steve Wikoff during an Aug. 6 meeting that Russia would agree to a full ceasefire if Kyiv withdrew its forces from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, granting Moscow full control of those partly occupied regions as well as Crimea.
President Volodymyr Zelensky strongly rejected on Aug. 9 the idea of ceding any Ukrainian territory to end Russia’s war, with talks on the proposal beginning in the U.K. with U.S., Ukrainian, and EU officials on Aug. 9.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told ABC’s This Week on Aug. 10 that any agreement would “have to be on the table” in terms of territory, along with security guarantees for Ukraine. He suggested this could mean Kyiv acknowledging the loss of control over certain areas without formally renouncing sovereignty.
Ukraine and its European allies are instead pushing for a ceasefire based on the current front line as a first step toward a broader settlement, combined with continued economic pressure on Moscow. European leaders reiterated over the weekend that “international borders must not be changed by force” and that “the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.”
According to Bloomberg, the potential deal discussed between Washington and Moscow would see Russian forces halt their offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts along existing battle lines. However, it remains unclear whether Moscow would agree to relinquish any occupied territory, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is the largest in Europe.
Putin has maintained his war aims, which include Ukraine adopting neutral status, abandoning its NATO aspirations, and accepting the loss of Crimea and four other regions Moscow claims to have annexed in 2022.
This is just delusional thinking from European leaders. Rutte’s remarks are just completely removed from the reality of dealing with Putin. If this is what theyre going with, they are going to be completely unprepared for the outcome of Putin’s meeting with Trump in Alaska. This isn’t going through the motions, this is just being unable to understand the world as it is. If this is the best that Ukraine’s European allies can do, then Ukraine is in even greater jeopardy than could be imagined.
Wonder how long it will take for Americans to realize why russian officials are posting this
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Understand Russia’s Intention to Try to Deceive America – We Will Not Allow This – Address by the President
10 August 2025 – 20:50
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Right now in Zaporizhzhia, our first responders, medics, police officers, and all services are working to help after a strike by Russian bombs. Air-dropped bombs on the city, on residential buildings, on the bus station, on one of the clinics. Unfortunately, there are casualties. Everyone will receive assistance. I thank every employee of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all services for responding promptly and for always saving people’s lives, no matter the circumstances.
Today, along the entire front line, in frontline communities, and in our border towns and villages, the Russians once again continued to take lives. No deadlines, no expectations work on them – they do not want to stop the killings. The only thing they are looking for is a way to kill Ukraine.
We clearly understand the threats. All our partners just as clearly understand the threats. Everyone sees that there has been no real step from Russia toward peace, no action on the ground or in the air that could save lives. That is why sanctions are needed, pressure is needed. Strength is needed – the strength, first and foremost, of the United States, the strength of Europe, the strength of all nations in the world that want peace and stability in international relations. If Russia does not want to stop the war, then its economy must be stopped.
These days, we are speaking almost around the clock with everyone who respects international law. There will be more meetings and contacts. Just today, I spoke with the Prime Minister of Sweden, the President of Kazakhstan, and the President of Azerbaijan. We also spoke with the President of France. There is clear support for our independence, our sovereignty, and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The war must be ended as soon as possible with a just peace. A just peace is needed. There is clear support for the principle that everything concerning Ukraine must be decided with Ukraine’s participation. Just as it should be for every other independent state. Everyone must be respected. I thank all those who share this position with Ukraine.
We are also preparing with Sweden new steps in the development of our Ukrainian combat aviation – this can be a major project for decades to come.
I would also like to separately highlight our energy cooperation with Azerbaijan – we value it greatly. Today, with President Aliyev, we discussed the recent Russian strikes specifically on those energy facilities that connect Ukraine and Azerbaijan. It is obvious that these are deliberate attacks – not only on these facilities, but also on our cooperation. And it is especially valuable to me that the President of Azerbaijan assured, and this is also Ukraine’s position, that we will continue our cooperation despite any challenges.
Of course, our team is working with the United States – not a single day goes by without communication on how to ensure real peace. We understand Russia’s intention to try to deceive America – we will not allow this. I greatly value the determination with which President Trump is committed to bringing an end to the killings in this war. Every day, many people are giving their lives. But the sole root cause of these killings is Putin’s desire to wage war and manipulate everyone he comes into contact with. We in Ukraine know Russia well – and that is why, in extremely difficult circumstances, Ukrainians have endured more than three years of full-scale war. We will certainly defend our state and our independence. I thank everyone who is helping.
One more thing. Today, there was a report from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, including on the situation in the Sumy region. We continue to drive Russian forces out of our land. There are much-needed results. I thank every soldier, sergeant, and officer defending Ukraine – our Sumy region, Kharkiv region, our Donetsk region, Luhansk region, our Zaporizhzhia region, our Kherson region. For successful actions in the Sumy region, I would like to particularly commend the 33rd and 225th Separate Assault Regiments, as well as the warriors of the Special Operations Forces. Thank you! For resilience and the destruction of the occupier in the Pokrovsk direction – which remains very important and extremely challenging – I commend the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard, the warriors of the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 1st Assault Regiment, the 2nd Battalion of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade, and the airmobile battalion of our 79th Brigade. I thank everyone on the frontline, at combat posts and on missions, everyone fighting for us, for Ukraine and our national interests as for themselves. I feel your support. We will certainly defend Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
256! ✊️
#Tbilisiprotests
#Georgiaprotests— Tamar (Tako) Tolordava (@takotolordava.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The Black Sea:
NATO reconnaissance aircraft activity over the Black Sea in July 2025.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Experts say Russia’s president wants to keep communication open with the US leader, but has no intention of winding down the war at the moment on.ft.com/3JabGQ3
— Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) August 10, 2025 at 4:55 PM
From The Financial Times:
Alaska, the venue set for Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s meeting on Friday, could hardly be more symbolic of the Kremlin’s view of the world.
Unlike Putin’s military seizure of about a fifth of Ukraine, Russia’s 19th-century sale of Alaska to the US under Emperor Alexander II was a peaceful transaction. Still, it serves as a reminder that national borders are not set in stone, and land can be a currency for statecraft.
Neither the battlefield balance nor budget strains are forcing the Russian president to scale back his maximalist territorial ambitions or consider unfavourable peace terms, according to analysts.
His focus instead is on keeping communication open with Trump, lest the US president’s frustrations with Moscow start to carry a cost. “Putin has no incentive to wind down the war right now,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre. “What matters to him is keeping Trump’s attention.”
On that front, Moscow was facing more risk. Trump, who came to office promising to end the war within 24 hours, has voiced irritation with Putin being “very nice” while simultaneously attacking Ukraine and feeding Washington “a lot of bullshit”. For the first time since taking office, Trump has begun enabling more significant transfers of weaponry to Kyiv, and threatening to apply tariffs on India for buying Russian oil.
But this impatient mood shifted almost overnight after US special envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow last Wednesday — just two days before Trump’s ceasefire-or-sanctions deadline. Rather than more trouble for the Kremlin, what emerged was Putin’s first invitation to America to meet a US president since he saw George W Bush in 2007.
The Alaska meeting, which came out of it, is the result of both Putin and Trump “backing themselves into a corner,” said Sam Greene, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London.
Putin, Greene said, was never going to announce the deal on Trump’s timeline, signalling weakness under pressure, and Trump was uneasy about the prospect of imposing sanctions that might ultimately prove ineffective and “appearing weak twice”.
“The fact that Putin is going to the US not as a prisoner, that he’s gone from a subject of frustration to someone welcomed, and that the meeting is happening without Ukrainians and Europeans — all of that is a diplomatic win,” Greene added.
The Trump-Putin meeting without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present — long a prize for the Kremlin — appeared to come without Russia making significant concessions on its core war goals. To Andrei Kozyrev, a former Russian foreign minister, it underlined that the meeting itself would be “a political gain for Putin”, coming “domestically and internationally without cost, unlike for his counterpart”.
For Ukrainian officials, the move to talks represents an attempt by Putin to achieve at least three distinct goals. Alyona Getmanchuk, the newly appointed head of Ukraine’s mission to Nato, said it was to emerge from isolation, avoid new sanctions, and to use Trump’s determination to end the war “in order to solve by diplomatic means the tasks he failed to complete by military means”.
More at the link,
As I wrote last night:
All of this is maskirovka. Putin is attempting, through manipulating Trump and his natsec team, to shift the blame to for not negotiating an end to Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and to create strategic time and space. Strategic time and space that Putin will use to keep new sanctions being placed on Russia, as well as to rebuild his capabilities.
If Russia continues to strike energy facilities linked to Azerbaijan in Ukraine, Baku may consider lifting its ban on supplying weapons to Ukraine from its own stockpiles, Azerbaijan’s Caliber reports.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:36 PM
1/ Ukrainian forces have carried out 12 precision strikes on Russian railway infrastructure in recent weeks, mainly in the south. These attacks disrupted key junctions and slowed military cargo flows to Crimea, Donbas, and the North Caucasus, Conflict Capital reports.
t.me/conflictcapi…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
2/ Analysts at Conflict Capital note that Russian forces failed to achieve strategic gains this summer, but several threats remain. The northern front near Kharkiv is stable, with Russian attacks repelled and the enemy focused on holding ground and exhausting Ukrainian units.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
3/ From Siversk to Pokrovsk, Russia relies on massed artillery and small assault groups. Fighting near Rodynske is key, as Russian forces try to pressure Ukrainian logistics and avoid direct urban combat.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
4/ In the Kostiantynivka area, Russian troops attempt to cut off Toretsk’s supply routes by attacking from multiple directions and seizing key heights for FPV drone deployment.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
4/ In the Serebrianske Forest, Russian units increasingly use small infiltration groups to probe weak points, achieving limited advances and threatening rear areas.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
5/ The southern front remains the most dynamic, with Russia holding defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia but moving reserves near Berdyansk and Mariupol. In Kherson, both sides fight for control of river islands and crossing points.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
6/ Analysts emphasize that the situation remains tense across all sectors, with Russia seeking any opportunity for a breakthrough to exploit Ukrainian defenses.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
The second skeet 4 should be 5, 5 should be 6, and 6 should be 7. Just go with it.
Soldiers of the 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down 19 Russian drones, including 9 Zala, 7 Supercam, 2 Orlan, and a Lancet, with an estimated total value of about $1,840,000 according to Ukrainian military assessments.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Ukrainian fighters from the Black Raven unit of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade destroyed a Russian BM-21 Grad that was preparing to strike Ukrainian positions.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Zaporizhzhia:
Moment of the Russian strike on a bus station in Zaporizhzhia today. Huge city, broad daylight!
At least 19 people were injured in the attack.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Additional images show the bus station in Zaporizhzhia after it was struck by Russian forces.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, Kharkiv Oblast:
Russian forces shelled the settlement of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi in Kharkiv region, murdering a 62-year-old man and injured two women.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Kharkiv Oblast:
Russia injured seven people in Kharkiv region in air attacks over the past 24 hours—including one man whose foot was torn off.
Even if it is not in the news, Russian terror never stops.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Odesa:
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:21 AM
A mine exploded near the shore in Zatoka, Odesa region, with reports of one or two fatalities, according to local media.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 5:34 AM
The Pokrovsk front:
Fields covered with fiber optics on the Pokrovsk front.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Oleshky, Kherson Oblast:
A precise air strike was carried out on an underground Russian command post in the Oleshky area of the Kherson region. It is claimed that about 25 Russian military were killed and another 11 were injured. (46.6316674, 32.7707389)
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Komi, Russia:
Territory of Lukoil oil refinery, 1700km from the frontline was targeted. It has the capacity of 4,2mln tons per year.
Russians published a video which shows damage to one of the fuel tanks. (63.5778254, 53.7327713). Red arrow shows direction of the operator on the video in the attached post.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:07 AM
/2. Drone of unknown model was spotted in the Komi region of Russia prior to the attack.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 8:51 AM
HUR drones struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Komi Republic, more than 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine’s border, Suspilne sources report. According to HUR, the refinery supplied fuel to the Russian army. A fuel storage tank was hit, causing a spill, and a gas and condensate processing unit was damaged
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Saratov, Russia:
By this moment territory of the Saratov oil refinery is still on fire after tonight’s attack
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 6:04 AM
Ukraine has no luxury of never-ending talking: our defence forces keep hammering russia’s oil industry with hellish, precision sanctions. This time it’s Saratov.
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Today’s updates into the list of hellish oil sanctions.
Author: Kostiantyn Hoholenko.— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Yelebuga, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia:
Satellite images confirmed at least two strikes on the Deng Xiaoping logistics terminal in Yelabuga, where Russian drones were stored, NV reports. The facility, a major Russian-Chinese project near the Alabuga SEZ, was officially used for storing attack UAVs, according to the SBU.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:16 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
🦊 Go eat, my dear. Here’s a sandwich. I’ll put it down for you, and you take it. Come back again, I have more.
AFU is trust! 💙💛— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Open thread!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to get cleaned up and rack out.
dimmsdale
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
Tatarigami_UA has a surprising (at least to me) take on the potential prospect of a ceasefire:
Chetan Murthy
Lifting sanctions Would reward Putin for his evil.
YY_Sima Qian
A number of sobering assessments wrt Ukrainian position in Donetsk, pointing to dire shortage in manpower:
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: That is surely Putin’s goal for a temporary ceasefire, & a concession Trump is highly inclined to make.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Hard days ahead.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: The latest anticorruption campaign in Beijing has ensured an increasing number of the top leadership of the PLA (& the PRC MIC), & to a lesser extent the Foreign Ministry:
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale: You’re welcome.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: the rest of Europe needs refuse to go along with that.
hotshoe
I’m old, really old (but maybe not much of an outlier with Balloon Juice folks) and I do have memories back to the stupid anti-communism which started the US war in Viet Nam. So my adult life was formed mostly in reaction against the idiocy of the reactionaries, foul men Nixon then Reagan, who were anti-commie and specifically anti-Russia. Whatever they were in favor of, I would not agree with; what they hated must not be all bad. Or so I thought.
Well, I still don’t admit that those foul men were correct.
And yet, they had a point in hating Russia as a nation which would never give up its practice of trying to destroy the US. From without, or from within …
If only 70million American people had not been brainwashed into ignoring that.
Now here we are, about to give away Alaska to the KGB boss.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: There are a few European countries (Hungary, Slovakia) that will break ranks immediately. & a sanctions regime by the EU (& the rest of the West ex-US) will be meaningless. We have seen how continued trade w/ the PRC, India, Türkiye & the rest of the Global South can help keep the Russian political economy afloat. If the US exits the sanctions regime (especially on USD denominated financial transactions), I doubt the rest of it will hold, unfortunately.
dnfree
Of all the disgusting and repulsive things Trump has done as president, this is among the worst.
Thank you for your continued updates, Adam, because this has to be agonizing for you.
pluky
Do the Azeri (and the other Central Asians) realize that Putin’s dream of a restored Russian empire includes them?
Steve Paradis
Like Munich 1938, except with Oswald Mosley replacing Chamberlain.
YY_Sima Qian
@pluky: They do, which is why Azerbaijan & Armenia are both sucking up to Trump, while the Central Asian Republics (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan & Turkmenistan) are drawing closer to the PRC. All of them are also exploring their options variously w/ the EU, Türkiye, India, etc.
Geminid
@pluky: I expect the Azeris are very aware of their neighbor to the north.Azerbaijan was ruled by Moscow from 1921 to 1989. It’s not an acute concern right now because Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. But the Azeris know Russia is a long-term threat. So does Azerbaijan’s ally Turkiye.
tobie
I’m beside myself whenever I read Trump, Vance and Lindsey Graham saying that Ukraine has to make concessions. It’s not the idea of concessions per se. Negotiations always involve them. It’s that Russia hasn’t been asked to concede anything in exchange for a ceasefire. I read that Russia wants Ukraine to give up its fortified lines, which would make it easy for it to re-invade Ukraine in the future. It would be great to see NATO or the EU show some spine but I’m not hopeful
Jay
nitter.poast.org/GLandsbergis/status/1954275112531759466#m
Westyny
Thank you, Adam. Europe could be a powerful force for sanity, but it seems a certain fecklessness sets in once one has attained the levers of power. If there’s a Hell I hope there’s a further Hell under Hell for Trump and Vance to rot in. Putin, too, of course, We know who already might be there.
Redshift
@tobie: Yeah, “territorial exchanges” (if that’s Graham’s actual language) is one of the weirdest repeated lies in this whole situation. Territorial disputes are sometimes resolved through territorial exchanges, but Russia isn’t “exchanging” any territory. “You get some of our territory in return for withdrawing from another part of our territory you occupied” isn’t an exchange, it’s just surrendering territory.