It has been another long terrible day and I’m going to keep tonight short as a result.
First, I heard back from my former Nepalese students. They’re all safe. This is what one of the retired 3 Stars sent me in reply:
The army has been deployed to restore order, and efforts are underway to initiate dialogue with the agitating groups.
This unrest was not unexpected. Years of corruption, rising unemployment, and the extravagant lifestyles of political elites have fueled deep frustration—especially among the younger generation. What we are witnessing is a powerful outcry for change.
Despite the turmoil, I remain optimistic. It’s clear that Nepal’s political landscape is on the cusp of a significant transformation. And with that, I believe there is light on the other side of the tunnel.
And the 2 Star:
This is an outcome of an accumulative frustration that the people and the youngsters of Nepal has been suffering since Nepal was changed into a multiparty democracy .
We hope the situation gets better soon.
Both of their takes confirm my own about what was going on.
Second, I think the most likely explanation is Russia is acting in a deliberate manner. This includes that Polish SIM cards were allegedly found in the drones that targeted Poland.
Russia has reportedly been preparing for a potential attack on Poland since July, when Polish SIM cards were first discovered in russian drones. One drone also contained a Lithuanian SIM card — possibly indicating similar preparations against Lithuania.
defence-ua.com/army_and_war…— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Specifically, these are provocations to see what NATO in general and Poland in specific will do. The new Polish president is exceedingly hard right and exceedingly dovish on Putin.
Approximate routes of tonight’s drone attacks in Ukraine and Poland (yellow) and cruise missile attacks in Ukraine (red), as published on Telegram channel “monitorwar”.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:40 AM
During the attack, the enemy used approximately 380–450 UAVs, including “Gerbera” and “Geran.” In addition, up to 33 cruise missiles, Kh-101, Kh-59/69, and Kalibr, were reportedly launched, according to the Monitorwar channel.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:40 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russia is expected to manufacture close to 2,500 high-precision missiles in 2025, spanning cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic classes, Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said in an interview with Ukrinform published on Sept. 7.
Skibitskyi said that Russia is ramping up both the development of new weapons and the modernization of its existing arsenal.
Russian drone production, including models such as the Geran (an adaptation of the Iranian-designed Shahed drone), the Garpiya, and various first-person view (FPV) drones, is also increasing significantly, he added.
Russia is concentrating its missile development efforts on three areas: extending range, improving accuracy, and enhancing warhead effectiveness, Skybitskyi said.
These efforts are not solely aimed at the ongoing war in Ukraine but are also part of longer-term preparations for a potential conflict with NATO by 2030.
“Striking targets in Ukraine requires one combat radius, but preparing for war with NATO by 2030 requires a much greater range,” Skibitskyi said. “This is exactly what Russia is building into its weapons programs.”
The Poles also think Russia’s activity was deliberate:
⚡️Russia ‘deliberately targeted’ Poland’s airspace, Sikorski says.
“Poland’s airspace was breached 19 times by drones manufactured in Russia. The assessment of Polish & NATO air forces is that they…were deliberately targeted,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) September 10, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Condemn Poland’s airspace violating my drone for 300km. Call on West to continue to express concern.
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 5:30 AM
If nato’s interception ratio is 4 out of 19, can you imagine how they would handle an average night in Ukraine with 700 air targets in the span of 5 hours
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine Proposes to Defend Airspace in a Coordinated, Thoughtful and Joint Manner – Address by the President
10 September 2025 – 20:35
I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!
It has been a long day. I’ve been in constant contact with our military during the massive Russian strike last night and afterwards throughout the day. Over four hundred Russian drones were launched, mostly “shaheds,” and more than forty missiles of various types, including ballistic ones. Fortunately, Ukrainian forces shot down the majority of them. I thank each of our units. Yet, sadly, there were still hits, and infrastructure was damaged in different regions, including ordinary homes. Since 1 a.m., our military tracked the movement of Russian drones toward the Polish border. And this movement was not an accident or a mistake – it was deliberate. The Russians used both Ukrainian and Belarusian territory to enter Polish airspace. Almost two dozen drones entered Poland, and it seems that less than half of the total number came from the Ukrainian side. This was a calculated Russian activity. And we all saw the result – how difficult it was to counter. Ukraine offered Poland the necessary assistance in responding. No one can guarantee that there won’t be hundreds of drones if there are already dozens. Only united European forces can give real protection. We are ready to assist with technology, crew training, and the necessary intelligence. But so far, Russia has not yet faced a tough reaction from global leaders to what the Russians are doing – a reaction precisely with actions. There are more than enough statements, but there is still a shortage of actions. The Russians are testing the limits of what is possible. They are testing reactions. They are watching closely how NATO armed forces act: what they can do and what they cannot do yet. Joint Russian–Belarusian exercises have now begun on Belarusian territory. And this may well be part of their “training plan”, so to speak. We also see the Russian disinformation campaign targeting both Poland and Ukraine. We see how the Russians are trying to humiliate Poland. That’s why strong countermeasures are vital, done in the right way. Ukraine proposes to defend airspace in a coordinated, thoughtful and joint manner. We have presented to our partners how this can be achieved. The details are clear – how to prevent the war from expanding and how to stop Russia’s escalatory steps. There are absolutely enough joint forces for this. There is a lot of international work on this today among all leaders. I thank every leader who has supported Poland, who supports Ukraine, who understands the threat to countries on the eastern flank, and that it is drones that Russia now employs as its key weapon for killing and destabilizing. Still, the missile threat has not lessened. Russia continues to expand its military-industrial capacity. We discussed all this with European leaders, including Polish Prime Minister Tusk, UK Prime Minister Starmer, Italian Council of Ministers President Meloni, and NATO Secretary General Rutte. It is important to continue coordinating. We agreed that our military and representatives from the Ukrainian and Polish Ministries of Defense will meet soon. I instructed our military to present all the experience we have in countering drones.
I also spoke with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Today she presented the fundamental priorities of the European Commission, and it is important that Europe will be even stronger. Among many things is funding for defense, including 6 billion euro for drones for Ukraine. This is a significant support for us. We are counting on the SAFE instrument, a large EU defense program, in which Ukraine should be a full participant. I want to express particular gratitude to Ursula for her readiness to help us with very sensitive social issues, namely, funding for Ukrainian children – for school meals, free meals for all our children. Gradually, this year, we will do everything to fully fund this school program.
And one more thing.
I am expecting a detailed report from Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, Denys Shmyhal, regarding Ramstein. I have been in contact with him today. There are results regarding new air defense systems for Ukraine. There is readiness from partners to continue funding the PURL program – for the procurement of U.S. weapons. We are also discussing additional funds for the production of our Ukrainian weapons – including long-range drones – so that Russia feels what a response to the war looks like. We are also working on equipping our brigades.
I thank everyone who is helping us. I thank everyone who understands that Russia only listens to strength and takes only the strong into account. Ukraine, all of Europe, all our partners must be strong. And we are very much counting on a strong response from the United States.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
The #GeorgiaProtests and the regime are obviously speeding up the rhythm in September.
Just in the last hour, two girls were detained for wearing masks and the office of activist group “Ertoba” was raided by the Criminal Police. 1/
📷 Taty Tomasi
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Masks were outlawed in December, but as of now, they couldn’t enforce it because there was mass disobedience to begin with and they always shied away from approaching protesters to personally demand someone take the mask off. 2/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yet in another case from the evening alone, one guy was first detained and then freed because they made an error. 3/3.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Day 287 of nonstop protests in Tbilisi. We’re marching again to GD’s offices—where ‘titushki’ brutally attacked a small early group of protesters in front of police two days ago. Yesterday we came in huge numbers and they stayed inside; today GD supposedly emptied the building.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:48 PM
“Until the end!”
Day 287 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. Heading towards Rustaveli Avenue. 🇬🇪
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 1:05 PM
“Unjust court, fear the power of the people.”
One of the key chants at the #GeorgiaProtests. The judicial clan, led by Mikheil Chinchaladze, is vital to Ivanishvili’s grip on power. Targeted sanctions on clan members could be decisive.Day 287 of uninterrupted protests. 🇬🇪
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Rustaveli Avenue is blocked for the 287th consecutive day. Protests continue in 8+ cities across Georgia. 🇬🇪
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 1:59 PM
“Leave!” – We made the police vans leave. We disobeyed them and their presence was counterproductive.
I loved this little act of disobedience.
We were marching on half of the road and walking in a normal pace.
Now we are all around and the traffic got disrupted for longer.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 1:38 PM
2/2.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 1:30 PM
24-year-old Megi Diasamidze was arrested under the criminal code for writing the inscription Russian Dream” on the election banner of Kakha Kaladze, Georgian Dream’s mayoral candidate in Tbilisi. The inscription was deleted a few minutes after she made it.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Another female activist detained in Georgia tonight, Natia Tokhadze.
Activist Magda Mamukashvili also shares that the criminal police are raiding the offices of the activist group Ertoba, arresting its members.
Looks like it’ll be a long night.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:49 PM
A 23-year-old Georgian student has been arrested on criminal charges for writing “Russian Dream” on a GD election banner — text erased within hours. She faces up to 5 years for causing damage to property. Lawyer Saba Brachveli notes this only applies if damage exceeds 150 GEL.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Experts, incl. ex–Public Defender Nino Lomjaria, say defacing a candidate’s poster during campaign season is punishable under the Election Code — not the Criminal Code — meaning it carries only a 1,000 GEL fine, not prison time.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Following this, one of the very few leaders who aren’t jailed, Elene Khoshtaria, vowed that these banners would get sacked one way or another.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Sometimes, it’s very hard to understand the Georgian Dream’s strategies.
Today, they had to arrest two of their thugs from the September 8 violence. It’s logical to assume that they had to do so due to the combo of violence against women and sexually vulgar gestures. 1/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:36 PM
This, btw, has visibly made them lose grounds in the “🇬🇪 traditionalism” narrative in the last 3 days.
Yet, they jail a female student activist over a GD campaign banner graffiti, and threaten her with 5 years, all while political imprisonment is wildly unpopular even among their supporters. 2/2.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:36 PM
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
The Georgian Dream got itself in yet another trap, and things could spiral down from here.
They cannot allow protesters to keep humiliating them just outside of the Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze’s campaign office, but at the same time, they cannot afford violence and confrontation. 1/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
For this reason, they have rapidly re-deployed intimidation tactics:
installing the Chinese security cameras that see everything, publishing addresses of activists, launching criminal investigations against them, even stopping people over face masks (detaining if they refuse to take them off). 2/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
It seems like they want to protect the honour of this Melikishvili campaign office a lot, because, well, their voters don’t want to see them as impotent, right? 3/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
It was preposterous to open this office on Melikishvili to begin with. I don’t know what they were thinking. It’s the most central Tbilisi, has the lowest support for GD, and daily protest marches from the Public Broadcaster to Rustaveli pass there every day. The hell.
#GeorgiaProtests 4/4.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
NATO and Poland:
Up to 20 drones. That’s not one random drone. Must be a planned action to test NATO. My bet is that NATO will not hit Russia back. Then Russia will escalate even more. Textbook case of what appeasement leads to.
— Anders Östlund (@andersostlund.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Last night in Poland we saw the most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began, and indications suggest it was intentional, not accidental.
I am in contact with NATO Secretary General Rutte and Poland FM Sikorski.
The EU stands in full solidarity with Poland. (1/2)
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Russia’s war is escalating, not ending.
We must raise the cost on Moscow, strengthen support for Ukraine, and invest in Europe’s defence.
The EU plays a major role and we will support initiatives like the Eastern Border Shield defence line. (2/2)
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:48 AM
If Vladimir Putin’s intention was to use an early-morning drone foray into Poland to test Nato’s air defences, the Russian president would be most pleased with the result. And, experts warn, he will probably be encouraged to go further next time. on.ft.com/3JUnOFg
— Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) September 10, 2025 at 11:48 AM
From The Financial Times:
If Vladimir Putin’s intention was to use an early-morning drone foray into Poland to test Nato’s air defences, the Russian president would be most pleased with the result. And, experts warn, he will probably be encouraged to go further next time.
The incursion into Polish airspace prompted Nato fighter jets to take to the skies and shoot down some of the projectiles — the first time the US-led military alliance has engaged directly with the Russian armed forces since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It marks a dangerous new chapter in the more than three-and-a-half-year-long conflict.
But, officials, defence experts and analysts say, it also will have shown just how unprepared Europe is for the type of mass air assault that Russia inflicts on Ukraine almost every night, laying bare the scale of the investment needed to shore up Nato’s eastern flank.
“[Moscow] will have taken note that we have still not learned from what Ukraine has been dealing with for years,” said Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the US Army in Europe. “We are absolutely not prepared for that . . . and now they are at our door.”
Hodges stressed that Europe needed a multi-layered, integrated air defence system that could assess the scale of an inbound attack and divert the right resources, unlike Wednesday morning’s response, where high-value fighter jets such as Dutch F-35s were scrambled to shoot down cheap drones.
“This was not an accident, obviously, given the number of drones,” said Hodges. “This was a rehearsal. To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”
Italian defence minister Guido Crosetto called the drone incursion “a deliberate attack” that “had two purposes: to provoke and to test”.
“Moscow is deliberately fuelling an escalation that no one wants,” Crosetto said. “It is evident that it has no interest in a truce or peace.” An Italian surveillance plane assisted the fighter jets that downed Russian drones on Wednesday.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that of an estimated 19 drones that entered Polish airspace, only about four “that presented a direct threat” were shot down. According to the Polish military, most of the drones were decoys routinely used by Russia to distract and deplete Ukraine’s air defences before successive waves of missiles and armed drones.
Nato has acknowledged that its eastern air defences are one of its weak spots and in urgent need of investment. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte commended “a very successful reaction by Nato” and vowed to defend “every inch of allied territory”.
“We need to invest more . . . so we have what we need to deter and defend,” Rutte added.
More at the link.
Map of Russian drones currently found in Poland:
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
💀
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Someone’s home in Poland after the russian drone attack last night.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Polish government spokesperson Adam Szłapka said NATO invoked Article 4 after the UAV incident in Poland. The article calls for consultations when a member’s territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened.
kyivindependent.com/poland-asks-…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Article 5 is NOT going to be invoked because everyone is afraid they’ll receive confirmation that the US won’t recognize the invocation, which would break the alliance.
My entertainment for the day is watching nato officials perform spectacular mental gymnastics in order to avoid the word “attack”
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:40 PM
It was a violation of airspace…it was a detonation on contact with a rooftop…it was an oops
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:42 PM
It was a чудовищная ошибка
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 12:44 PM
That translates as “a monstrous mistake.”
The US:
Will Vladimir stop under the pressure of such a tough stance?
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 11:30 AM
My grandmother took a tougher stance on TV volume with my grandfather than Trump did on Russia penetrating NATO airspace with drones.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to provide Poland with assistance in strengthening its alert systems and protection against Russian strikes.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 5:10 AM
All illusions that russia wants only Ukraine — or that it would stop after getting the Donetsk region — should be gone after this blatant attack on Poland.
russia seeks to restore its borderless empire.
Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security.
Time to choose to defeat russia.
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:57 AM
“We are now preparing a forceful, proportionate response to the aggression committed by Russia against fellow NATO member Poland.”
Said NO NATO ally of Poland.
In fact, only Ukraine has so far proposed defense cooperation with Poland in response to drone incursions.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
The time for the West to start arming democratic Ukraine to the teeth and imposing crippling sanctions on fascist Russia was… over three years ago.
Putin has been given time to switch his economy to a war footing.
Stopping him now will be much more costly – and risky.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Ukrainian foreign minister on fascist Russian drone incursions into Poland:
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Here’s last night’s/this morning’s Ukrainian air defense tally:
Last night, Russia carried out the most massive attack on Ukraine in the past four months. Ukrainian air defense destroyed or suppressed 413 targets: 386 drones and 27 missiles. Strikes were recorded in 17 locations — 16 missiles and 21 drones. At least 8 drones flew towards Poland.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Zhytomyr Oblast:
One person was killed, and another was injured in russian attack on Zhytomyr region last night.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Lviv:
🇺🇦🙏 Strong explosions in Lviv, air defence is active!
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 9, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Russian occupied Crimea:
💥The video shows a missile attack on Russian artillery depots of the Dnepr group of forces located in the village of Solnechnaya Dolina, Crimea. The strike took place in the first half of August 2025. t.me/dosye_shpion…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 10:27 AM
On the night of September 10, 2025, a strike was carried out on the 40th Command and Measurement Complex, located in the village of Vitino, Crimea. The strike was likely conducted by two jet-powered drones.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 10:13 AM
/2. As a result, the headquarters building and a communications post were hit. The video shows the destruction of two objects. At the end of the footage, a fragment of a jet-powered projectile is also visible in flight.
t.me/dosye_shpion…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Vinnytsia:
The State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported that 31 people were injured in Vinnytsia as a result of a missile and drone attack, including three children. Industrial infrastructure facilities were also damaged.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Moscow Oblast, Russia:
Something is on fire in the Moscow region of russia. 👀
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 10, 2025 at 7:41 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Carlo Graziani
“Re-establish deterrence” should be the NATO planning guidance for the next test.
Gin & Tonic
The use of “чудовищная ошибка” is deliberate, as it is a meme. Reportedly (maybe apocryphally) after NKVD head Nikolai Yezhov (or Ezhov) was purged, arrested and tried in one of the many secret trials of 1938-39, before his execution he said “tell Comrade Stalin that there has been a monstrous mistake.”
Then he was shot.
New Deal democrat
It wasn’t just that there were 19 incursions. It was that the incursions took place over *7* hours. This was deliberate.
Obviously Europe shouldn’t rely on T—-p. My armchair suggestion would be that Russia gets one free drone. Once the first drone in any launch enters NATO airspace, any others on a trajectory to enter a NATO ally’s airspace can be shot down with 5/10/25/some other number of kilometers before they cross the border, even if that means they are still inside Russian territory.
E.TA. And I would publicly inform Russia of that new NATO policy, so that they have no doubt ahead of time.
Anonymous At Work
Your 3-star Nepalese friend is being sincere about restore order? After all, the military tried to “restore order” with live ammunition earlier in the revolt.
Also, what are the odds that leaders will learn that shutting down social media may hamper mass protests but seems to increase the chance of violent protests?
Sally
Interesting, it was what I was saying last night. An hit rate of 3 or 4 out of 19 or 20 is pathetic. And they were using the most sophisticated (expensive) weapons to do it. It is my understanding that most of the drones were the cheaper Gerbera drones used mainly for decoy and reconnaissance. So, ru now has a good map of Polish eastern AD, and an idea of its efficacy, or lack of. It looks like at least some of the drones were armed. I think this is wilfully stupid trying to twist this as “accidental” or overflights. I agree with G&T.
The Poles need to move their AD up to the border, as does Romania, and damn well shoot down everything within a distance, n km, of the UA and ru borders, just in case. Where I would put n = 1000 km, but that’s just me. Just to be safe. And their AD needs to be like UA AD, cheaper and effective. If this isn’t outright provocation by ru, then the word has lost its meaning. It requires a
robustcrushing response.The West constantly worries about provocation, but ru doesn’t worry about it at all. And for good reason. Nothing seems to provoke the West into a proper reaction. I knew Rutte would be a tall glass of water, but this is pathetic. How I wish Kallas were NATO Sec Gen. Trump couldn’t care less about UA, all the reasons for choosing “daddy’s boy” Rutte are moot.
Tusk is incorrect, Poland / Europe is at war with Russia.
Anonymous At Work
Outside of fears of endless escalation, why don’t 19 Russian tankers/ships suddenly disappear near NATO ports? Outside the “accepted” theater is apparently fair game if “accidents happen.”
Gin & Tonic
@New Deal democrat: In 2015, Turkiye shot down a russian Su-24 17 seconds after it entered Turkish airspace. Russian planes don’t enter Turkish airspace anymore.
Sally
@Gin & Tonic: Exactly!
YY_Sima Qian
The mass protests in Nepal that toppled the political establishment follow similar movements in Sri Lanka & Bangladesh. All part of the collapse of the ancien régime as the “Establishment” lose credibility, support, then ability to govern across most parts of the world
The Philippines is highly susceptible to a similar movement, due to similar socio-political/economic dynamics.
Even in countries traditionally thought of as liberal democracies, such as Japan, the nativist far right has been gaining momentum on back of disaffection/disillusionment from the entrenched establishment. Same in Europe.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
Rather unfathomable for a Polish leader to be dovish on Putin. Then again, I had thought a pro-Russian Georgian Dream would be unfathomable, too.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam. Can NATO decouple itself from the US, rather than the other way around? We’re an ankle weight on them at this point.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
ruZZia has played a long game of rubles and propaganda with the Reich Wing in all of the West.
Scratch any Reich Wing “populist” and you will find both rubles and ruzzian propaganda hidden in the closet, or not so hidden.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: The backlash against Israel’s strike against Hamas’ political leadership in Doha, Qatar has been surprisingly strong. Initial, there were suggestions that the outrage from the Gulf Coast States have been performative, since no Iraqi, Saudi, Kuwaiti or Emiriti air defenses interfered with/ the Israeli strike package, & none of them view Hamas positively. There were even suggestions that the US was in on the Israeli operation, because the Hamas leadership was meeting to discuss the latest [extremely vague] offer from Witkoff.
However, in the days since, we have seen the UAE & the KSA circling the wagons around Qatar (w/ whom they had a major falling out mere years ago), and condemning Israeli aggression on the strongest terms. Same w/ Türkiye. Even Trump dissociated from the Israeli op, though perhaps not wanting to be associated w/ failure (since Israel missed). Needless to say, any prospect for a deal to end of war in Gaza & return the remaining hostages is not indefinitely put off (would have been the same if the op had succeeded). Meanwhile, Iran is trolling on both the malevolence & unreliability of the US & Israel.
When was the last time a country under US security guarantee was attacked w/o provocation by another country under US security guarantee? Greece/Türkiye? Might this act start the unwinding of much of the US led security architecture in the ME?
Another part of the ongoing collapse of any semblance of international order we’ve had (such as it was).
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@YY_Sima Qian:
Wouldn’t the same anti-Establishment trends affect them as well if they can’t meaningfully solve problems and then people would become disillusioned with them?
ETA: Also, I’ve thought that the anti-Trump reaction in various countries (Australia, etc) was a double edged sword in that it obscures the danger of rising global fascism, making it seem like Trump is the only threat, when Trump/MAGA is merely the American expression of that same troubling global trend.
Bill Arnold
I saw the Russian probe of Poland using military drones described as “liminal warfare” on Twitter/X, referring to some work by David Kilcullen.
Is this sort of framework generally accepted, even if by another name/names? (It seems obvious, partially due to Adam’s relentless teaching. (Thanks!))
Liminal Manoeuvre and Conceptual Envelopment: Russian and Chinese Non-Conventional Responses to Western Military Dominance since 1991 (David Kilcullen, 2020)
YY_Sima Qian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The nativist far right have to seize and exercise power 1st before a backlash can develop. Through which course they will already have wreaked havoc.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@YY_Sima Qian:
Why wouldn’t a backlash develop in response, if they’re actions/policies are broadly unpopular?
Chetan Murthy
It might be useful to watch this Timothy Snyder video about “sadopopulism”: youtube.com/watch?v=oOjJtEkKMX4
TL;DR oligarchs and fascists -cannot- solve the problems of their people: it’s baked-in-the-cake. So they instead identify some scapegoat, and tell the voters that those people are responsible for their pain, and that if the voters will put them in power, then they’ll go make those people pay. “Elect us, and we will be sadists to those scapegoats”. It works, and you can lather/rinse/repeat until you run out of scapegoat groups, right?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
That can’t go on forever, people will realize where the blame truly lies
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): large parts of the South have been run this way for many decades. They are feudal oligarchies that deliver very little for their white residents. But conveniently there are black people there And it’s easyFor the oligarchs to hornSwaggle the white Folks into thinking that they need to continue votingFor the oligarchs to keep the black people down.
cain
@Chetan Murthy:
That is essentially the book ‘Animal.Farm’ busy Orson Welles.
Chetan Murthy
@cain: Ha, it’s been too long since I read it, and clearly I’ve forgotten stuff. Thank you for the reminder! The Soviets last 70+ years, using that formula, didn’t they? Putin has continued for 20+ years, same-old same-old.
YY_Sima Qian
In case anyone was wondering about the US’ security commitments to Europe (video through the link):
The top bureaucrats on the European Commission were just plaining to European audiences a few weeks ago, that the EU had to strike the widely perceived to be humiliating (& self-professed to be unequal) trade “deal” w/ Trump because Europe had to keep the US committed to Europe’s defense, and were congratulating themselves for having stabilized US-EU relations & reaffirmed the US’ commitment. In fact, von der Leyen was making that very case in her State of the European Union speech to the European Parliament yesterday (& was relentlessly heckled by the right wing populist MEPs).
I thought they were/are incredibly naive. No amount of aligning w/ Trump & MAGA wrt the PRC, India, Iran, Israel, etc. will secure MAGA’s commitment to European defense. Giving in to MAGA extortions & coercions merely undermines the EU’s credibility as a geopolitical pole in a multipolar world, undermine the EU’s economic soundness/competitiveness, & leave Europe even more vulnerable to Russia hybrid warfare, PRC economic/industrial competition, & take over by populist far right from w/in.
Hegseth didn’t say anything about “deterring the PRC”, either. It was all about “securing the homeland” & hunting the “enemies” w/in. But then, he was probably just regurgitating the talking points at Colby gave him.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
The US is not the Soviet Union or the Russian Federation
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): But, more and more, the US -is- Alabama. Or Texas. Which is enough for that trick to work.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@YY_Sima Qian:
It also undermines their credibility of being advocates for democracy and human rights.
Two years ago Germany, Canada, etc condemned Uganda for it’s draconian anti-gay bill that became law that included the literal death penalty for gay people. Today, it’s crickets wrt the domestic abuses of the Trump administration/GOP of the last 8 months. If it were happening in Iran for example, they’d have no problem condemning that government
Maybe it’s partly because they feel officially condemning the Trump administration’s domestic policies would do more harm than good in regards to American public opinion and probably result in the destruction of their security alliance with the US, but based on what you’ve written here, that may not be worth much. The Trump admin doesn’t care about them.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
Trump and the GOP’s poll numbers are completely underwater, on literally every major issue. His coalition that got him barely elected in 2024 has completely collapsed. The NG deployments are broadly unpopular and have not gotten people back on his side. They wanted him to make it 2019 again and time and time again his actions have proven he is not remotely interested in doing that
Josh Marshal has noted that a very real backlash is shaping up based on this polling and recent elections that have swung our way
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I hope you’re right, Goku. I really do. If you’re right, then maybe my exile from America will not be permanent. But here’s the thing: I watch r/LAMF, and I see very few Trumpers who actually recant their support for him. They still like him, they just don’t him to hurt them. Hurt others? Huzzah! Hurt them? Oh no sir, please don’t! So I’m ….. unconvinced that he and MAGA are gonna suffer.
And then there’s the systematic nobbling of future elections.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
You don’t have to get all of them to actively support our side, only some, and not even their active support; just becoming disillusioned and dropping out of political participation could do it. It wouldn’t need to be a big shift to swing elections
And r/LAMF is hardly going to be a representative sample anyway
YY_Sima Qian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You are forgetting the indifference to Israeli conduct in Gaza displayed by most of Europe (Ireland, Norway, Spain, Portugal & Slovenia excepted), even worse the suppression of pro-Palestinian voices.
The political establishment in Western capitals are still blind to just how damaging both the insufficient response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine & & the non-response to (if not outright enablement of) Israeli war crime/crimes against humanity in Gaza have been to the “rules based international order” they so profess to value, & to their own credibility as governing elites to much of their domestic audiences.
YY_Sima Qian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Here is a series of X threads that lays bare the EU’s impotence, incoherence & hypocrisy, obvious for all to see:
Meanwhile, the strategy of the EU bureaucrats for “managing” Trump is quite far out of step w/ European popular sentiments:
Vietnam is perhaps a bellwether in the shifting geopolitical winds:
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Keep in mind, that both France and Britain quietly went “nuclear”, because they did not trust US Security “pledges”, back in the 1950’s and 60’s, when the US had relatively “sane” governance.
Intermeshed security, military, economic entwined strings that took decades to built post WWII are not going to be completely unraveled in 7 months.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
They don’t appear to be doing that but instead, according to what YY_Sima Qian posted above, trying to appease the Trump admin, all the while remaining largely silent while the Trump admin attempts to degrade American democracy/institutions and violates human rights
YY_Sima Qian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Appeasing Trump w/ empty promises is a legitimacy strategy for Europe to buy time to become independent on security, energy, technology & geopolitics. It is the 2nd half of the equation where it is not clear that Europe is making any progress, nor has it been clearly communicated to the European populations. There has been a lot of talk, which the EU is excellent at. Actions, not so much.
patrick II
If Russia is working to increase and modernize its military, Europe cannot keep doing what they are doing because Russia will pull further ahead and become more and more challenging to defeat. Something has to change. Europe could take them on now or at least soon with proper planning, while Russia may be at their weakest. Or Europe could increase military spending significantly– especially in missile offense and defense — or get serious about sanctions. Each of these options has its own problems, and no rule says you can’t do all three. But Putin’s read of the U.S. under both Biden and Trump has been correct, and so has his read of Europe. Ukraine’s courage and brilliance at warfare is the one he didn’t figure on, but can they keep it up forever?
Jeffg166
The Polish army is the best trained and equipped in Europe. Vlad is making a very big mistake if he tries to take Poland on.
Harrison Wesley
@YY_Sima Qian: Gotta prep for that assault on Venezuela.
Sally
@patrick II: I agree with you. I am appalled by the European mindset. There seems to be a smug satisfaction that this response all went very well. Ticked all the boxes of NATO co operation. The Russians are cock-a-hoop, with good reason. They got all they wanted, and more, from this recon mission and breach into Poland / NATO.
There needs to be a military response from and in both Romania and Poland. A new policy of moving up and increasing AD, of shooting down anything, drone, jet, anything, headed towards either country. I said within 1000 km but I have heard (far!) more qualified people saying 200 km across the borders of those countries into Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. The Russians need to feel consequences.
You are also correct in saying that we need to take decisive action against Russia while they are weak. Their economy is slowly disintegrating, it is becoming harder and more expensive to lure recruits, civil society is deteriorating with labour shortages and crumbling infrastructure.
We may not be ready, but there will never be a better time. All this while they and their allies are becoming more battle tested and experienced. We have the NK’s boasting how much they are learning about modern warfare from their fighting with the Russians. Is this what we want? It certainly needs to alter South Korea’s calculus about weapons supplies. While Russia becomes battle hardened, we are blowing up unarmed pencil boats in the Caribbean. Whoop-e-do!