I wanted to bring my comment reply on what I think Putin is trying to accomplish with his drone overflights of Poland and now Romania too.
I think Russia’s strategy in overflying or attacking Poland and Romania, which I expect will be expanded to the Baltics, Finland, Norway, and Sweden in short order, is to 1) gathered data on responses, response times, air defense targeting and efficacy, etc and 2) to draw one of these states, or another NATO member state supporting them, to pursue a drone or a MiG or a Tu in way that brings them over Russian airspace. At that point Russia will claim it has been attacked/invaded by a NATO member state. They’ve been seeding that into the informational environment for fifteen plus years. My professional assessment is that Russia has now directly and intentionally attacked NATO member states. These are acts of war. These states, and NATO, need to accept reality and respond appropriately.
I would also like to win the lottery.
An apparent irony in the modern geopolitical landscape:
A non-NATO country that has not been accepted into the alliance is now teaching a full-fledged NATO member how to defend itself by shooting down russian drones.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 3:09 PM
One of the main problems, as Jay flagged in a comment of his own last night, is that no NATO member state has any actual combat experience with conducting or countering drone warfare in general and the type of drone warfare the Russians employ in specific. In fact there is only one state that has significant experience countering drone warfare, as well as more experience conducting offensive drone operations than Russia: Ukraine. If Russia were to attack one or more NATO member states none of them be asking the US for train, advise, and assist assistance right now. Nor any other state except for Ukraine. The Ukrainians are the subject matter experts and have all the technical expertise.
🇺🇦🇵🇱 It is the Ukrainians who will teach us to resist Russia, not the other way around. This is something that the public and governments in the West must urgently realize, — Sikorski
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Polish anti-drone teams will receive training from Ukrainian operators at a NATO center in Poland, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski announced. Ukraine’s expertise in countering Russian drones will help bolster defenses after recent incursions.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s…
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Who could’ve possibly imagined?
NATO’s larger/overall problem, which is also the problem for each of its member states in Europe, is that neither NATO nor its constituent European member states don’t have a coherent strategy at all. The reason for this is because NATO’s and its member states’ policy has been to let the US lead. Well the US led, but only so far, under Biden and his team. And is not leading at all under Trump and his team.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Have Significantly Restricted Russia’s Oil Industry, and This Significantly Restricts the War – Address by the President
14 September 2025 – 19:15
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
I want to especially thank all our warriors today who are inflicting truly significant losses on Russia. Losses at the front. Losses along the border. Losses on Russia’s own territory thanks to our long-range strikes. The most effective sanctions – the ones that work the fastest – are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots. We have significantly restricted Russia’s oil industry, and this significantly restricts the war. Russia’s war is essentially a function of oil, of gas, of all its other energy resources. I thank the special forces of the Security Service of Ukraine, who did a great job in Primorsk recently, hitting Russia’s largest oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. There is substantial damage; everything has been verified. And this is tangible for the enemy. Our special forces are also keeping an eye on the port of Ust-Luga and all other Russian points of access to the world market. Today, the Security Service of Ukraine’s drones are capable of operating at distances of more than a thousand kilometres. The Special Operations Forces, the Unmanned Systems Forces, the Foreign Intelligence Service, and the Defense Intelligence are also involved. I thank them all for their accuracy. When there is a result, we praise the result. Russia could have ended this war long ago – and we have proposed this. Partners have proposed this. Many times. Russia has rejected everything related to peace. Accordingly, we are defending ourselves. And it is important that we are constantly expanding the range of weapons we produce and use. Of course, the details are extremely sensitive. But I also want to thank every Ukrainian company that provides us with this strength. We will not name the companies. For now. They already know who will use which weapons. What matters is that we have such companies. What matters is that they’re ramping up production. What matters is that, at the state level, we support every such business that enhances Ukraine’s defense capabilities and restores justice for us. I also want to acknowledge the producers of our drones, especially interceptor drones – we are increasing volumes, and it is essential that the development of such drones does not stop. A technological war requires constant innovation, and I thank all the engineers, developers, every enterprise, everyone who helps, every one of our volunteers – all who keep our defense at the proper technological level. The defense of Ukraine is truly a common task. And we are ready to teach all partners how to carry out such defense. Everyone can see that the Russians are probing – looking for ways to bring the war onto the territory of Poland and the Baltic states. The Russian army is also testing Romania. Of course, NATO has Patriots, other systems, and powerful fighter jets. But against Russian “shaheds” and “gerberas,” we in Ukraine have much cheaper, more scalable and systemic solutions. It is important not to waste any time.
Today, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi delivered a report. There are good results in the border area of the Sumy region. Our units continue to advance toward the state border of Ukraine. I thank the warriors of the 225th Separate Assault Regiment and the 71st Jaeger Brigade. The Russians are also suffering significant losses in the Kharkiv region – in Kupyansk – and in the Donetsk region. We continue our actions in the Dobropillia sector. Importantly, our men are repelling the Russian assaults. Special thanks to the warriors of the 1st, 225th, and 425th Separate Assault Regiments, and to the 79th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades. Well done, guys. We are also acting according to the situation in the Zaporizhzhia region. I thank everyone who is defending our state and our people! I thank everyone who stands with us, who stands with Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Regime prisoner families and activists continue spreading the regime prisoner newspapers in all of Georgia.
The great @mariamnikuradze.bsky.social is also there, providing us with these amazing pictures that will go down in school history books.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
When I say that everyone’s on edge in Georgia, some tell me that “we’ve been here before.”
Yes, but that was about electoral victory, not victory through the streets.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 8:10 AM
“Russian Dream,” @Helenkhosh wrote on Kakha Kaladze’s banner.
“Solidarity for Megi,” she later wrote on FB.
23-year-old student Megi Diasamidze was arrested for writing “Russian Dream” on a banner. On Sept 12, Judge Davit Kurtanidze set her bail at 2,000 GEL and released her.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Democratic leader @Helenkhosh wrote “Russian Dream” on GD Mayor Kakha Kaladze’s campaign banner at the Melikishvili office.
They began criminal prosecution against a 23-year-old girl for the exact same reason.
Elene’s defiance very often goes unmatched. ✊🏻
#GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 11:09 AM
The policeman be like: “Ms. Elene, it’s not allowed.”
Oh really 🤣
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 11:09 AM
The so-called Ministry of Internal Affairs began criminal prosecution against democratic leader Elene Khoshtaria over “damaging” the GD campaign banner.
Elene is already one of very few leaders who aren’t in jail.
Let’s see if they detain her or if they put the case on a shelf.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM
“You cannot erase the true word of a truthful man. Neither by jailing, nor by decapitation – you cannot keep the truth contained.” – Metropolitan bishop Grigol of Poti and Khobi.
It’s so reassuring to hear some humanity and sanity from among Georgia’s largely Russified clergy.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 9:21 AM
❤️
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 11:16 AM
The Georgian Dream is having a campaign for the sham local elections.
In Tbilisi, their neighbourhood talks & gatherings last mere minutes as people actively lash out at them.
Even in rural areas they are often confronted or engaged in a dissatisfied manner.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:16 PM
For about a week now, activists have been putting up leaflets shaming GD thugs in their neighbourhoods. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Poland:
russian serviceman btw👇🏻
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:48 PM
NATO, the EU, Canada, the US, etc, etc:
😵💫 Putin sees the war in Ukraine as existential for him, that is, something on which his political future depends, — Politico
The launch of Drones over Poland on September 10 was a signal to the West: the Kremlin does not plan to stop the war.
— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 4:05 PM
From Politico:
When Vladimir Putin sent at least 19 drones into Poland last week, the Russian president was delivering a message: He’s not planning to end his war against the West anytime soon.
The Russian incursion into NATO airspace follows weeks of aerial attacks in Ukraine that killed dozens of civilians, damaged buildings housing the EU and British delegations and struck for the first time a government building in central Kyiv.
Far from being ready to strike a peace deal with Ukraine under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin has pegged his political survival to a simmering conflict with the United States and its allies.
“Putin is the president of war,” said Nikolai Petrov, a senior analyst at the London-based New Eurasian Strategies Center. “He has no interest in ending it.”
Having fashioned himself as a wartime leader, going back to being a peacetime president would be tantamount to a demotion. “No matter what the conditions are, he cannot give up that role,” Petrov said.
As Putin’s full-scale assault on Ukraine drags toward its fourth year, the Russian president arguably has the most cause for optimism since the early days of the war when the Kremlin hoped to capture the country in a matter of days.
With Ukrainian forces hamstrung by a lack of weapons and manpower, Russia has been grinding deeper into the country.
But Moscow’s progress has been slow — and costly. The Kremlin’s armed forces have suffered an estimated one million casualties and the conflict has taken its toll on the Russian economy, which threatens to tip into recession.
And yet, politically, ending the conflict comes with risks.
The Kremlin’s tight control over the media and the internet would likely allow it to sell a peace deal to most Russians as a victory. But that’s not who the Russian president will be worrying about.
With Russia’s liberal opposition decimated, a small but vocal group of nationalists now presents the biggest threat to his rule, said Petrov. And he has promised them a grandiose victory, not only over Ukraine but over what the Kremlin calls “the collective West.”
“There’s a desire among the hawkish part of the military-political establishment to destroy NATO,” Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told DW’s Russian service. “To show NATO is worthless.”
Since Putin met with Trump in Alaska last month in what the U.S. president had touted as a summit dedicated to striking a ceasefire, Moscow has ramped up its campaign of hybrid warfare against Europe, according to military analysts.
Before Wednesday’s incursion, Russian drones had repeatedly ventured into Polish airspace from neighboring Belarus, circling cities before turning back. In August, a Russian drone crashed some 100 kilometers southwest of Warsaw.
According to WELT, a sister publication of POLITICO in the Axel Springer Group, five of the drones that crossed into Poland were on a direct flight path toward a NATO base before being intercepted by Dutch Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets.
In an opinion piece published two days before the drones crossed into Poland, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, accused Helsinki of planning an attack, threatening that any assault “could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood — once and for all.”
Analysts noted the article’s rhetoric resembled the Kremlin’s talking points ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Moscow has also begun to shift vital industries, including shipbuilding, to the east of the country, away from its border with NATO, Petrov pointed out. On Friday, Russia began carrying out large-scale military exercises with Belarus, including just across the Polish border. The exercises are expected to conclude on Tuesday.
“Whatever Putin achieves in Ukraine, the confrontation with the West will not end there; it will continue in various forms,” said Petrov. “Including militarily.”
With actions like the incursion into Poland, Putin is issuing a warning to Trump and European leaders discussing providing security guarantees for Kyiv after a potential peace deal, said Kirill Rogov, founder of the think tank Re:Russia.
“Putin showed that he can attack NATO countries today and they have no defense systems in place,” he said.
Much more at the link.
Back to Ukraine.
🇺🇦🚀 Zelensky: “The most effective sanctions are fires at Russian oil refineries, terminals and oil depots.”
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Russian oil refineries bingo by Bloomberg 😏
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:57 PM
🔥 🛢️Map of campaign against Russian oil refineries.
A total of 13 refineries have been attacked, combined processing capacity of targeted oil refineries — 114.5mln tons per year.
📌 Support the fundraising to help the 14th USF Regiment push their reach even further: www.help99.co/patches/spec…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:40 PM
August map of confirmed Ukrainian drone and missile strikes across Russia records 45 incidents. Targets include 8 oil depots and gas facilities, 14 refineries, 2 airfields, 12 railway sites, 3 ports and warehouses, plus 6 defense industry enterprises.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 5:32 AM
All this as Ukraine’s “long-range” strike capabilities are only starting to come online.
At sea, fascist Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was defeated and had to flee to a Russian port.
On the ground, Russia’s army is bleeding out for tiny gains.
In the air, Ukraine grows stronger.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 2:32 PM
🇺🇦🦾 Happy Ukrainian Tank Forces Day!
Tankers are the heart of the offensive, the steel fist that breaks down barriers and protects our people. They know the value of discipline and camaraderie, because inside a tank lives a team as united as Ukraine itself.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Ukrainian MiG-29 deploys French AASM-250 Hammer guided bombs.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Kramatorsk:
This is the current state of the road to Kramatorsk. Russian drone strikes are so frequent that anti-drone nets are now essential.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Kyiv:
Air alert in Kyiv – fascist Russian jet drone approaching from the east.
I presume US envoy Keith Kellogg has left the Ukrainian capital.
I’ve had a good couple of nights’ sleep, at least.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
Russian ammunition depot is detonating in Severodonetsk, Luhansk region.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
This time, HUR targeted Russian BUK-M3 air defe system. Not in Crimea, as usual, but in Zaporizhzhia region.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Kherson:
Volodymyr Nikolayenko, the former mayor of Kherson, returned to his homeland on Ukraine’s Independence Day, August 24, 2025. He had spent nearly three and a half years in Russian captivity, much of that time at Penal Colony No. 7 in the village of Pakino, located in Russia’s Vladimir Oblast.
1/n
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
When Russian forces entered the city, Nikolayenko stayed. He received a phone call from Kirill Stremousov, a local blogger who was one of the then-leaders of the occupying administration.
2/n
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Stremousov offered Nikolayenko a “position,” and told him that if he refused to cooperate with Russia, he would be sent “to the pit”—imprisoned in one of the makeshift jails the Russians had set up in Kherson.
3/n
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Nikolayenko refused to cooperate, and soon after, he was lured to a meeting and arrested by FSB officers. They accused him of “actively hindering” the advance of Russian troops in Kherson.
”They thought they had come for good, that ‘Russia would never leave here’,” Nikolayenko recalled.
4/n
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
“They told me to agree to cooperate. ‘You will publicly recognize the new government or go to a prison you will never leave’ they said. ‘And if you don’t agree with us, your family will suffer as well’At the time, a child I was caring for was living with my family, and I was very worried about him”
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Speaking about the situation in Kherson, Nikolayenko said, “They sent me a video of what the city looks like now. I watched it. It’s a horror. As soon as the doctors allow it, I will go there.” After a pause, he added, “We will rebuild it, and if we have to, we will defend it.”
6/n
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Nikolayenko noted that it still feels unusual for him to be free, even though it’s an everyday reality for those around him.
7/n
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
”For some people, freedom is just an illusion,” he said. “The most important thing for them is, excuse me, having sausage or bread in the fridge. But I want to say, my friends, that is not what’s most important.
8/n
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
The most important thing is true freedom. If it is taken from you, you will have neither sausage nor bread. You will have nothing. Cherish your freedom.”
9/end
Translated from the BBC Ukraine interview by the link: www.bbc.com/ukrainian/ar…
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Leningrad Oblast:
The impact moment in Leningrad, Kirishi oil refinery💥💥💥
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 13, 2025 at 10:06 PM
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 13, 2025 at 10:13 PM
👌 The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces confirmed the strike on Kirishi Oil Refinery
800 km from the Ukrainian border. This oil refinery is the main supplier of petroleum products for St. Petersburg, Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov regions.
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 4:18 AM
🔥🛢️ Second largest Russian oil refinery — the Kinef Oil Refinery in the Leningrad, was targeted tonight.
Kinef has a production capacity of more than 20 million tons per year and is located 800 km from the front.
(59.4851629, 32.0711122)
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:50 AM
/2. Additional footage from Kinef
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:50 AM
/3. Moment of the strike on Kinef Oil Refinery
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 12:51 AM
St. Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast, Russia:
A train carrying 15 fuel tanks derailed in St. Petersburg, Russia. It is reported that sabotage may have been the cause.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 3:30 AM
/2. Derailed Russian train in St. Petersburg
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 4:05 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Medium Cool – Stumbling Isn’t Always Bad!
TONYG
The fact that this violation of Poland’s territory is happening when Trump is president is not a coincidence. If NATO decides to forcefully respond, then Trump will abandon NATO.
Carlo Graziani
I believe that there is a connection between Ukrainian drone warfare on Russian petroleum infrastructure and the Russian deliberate decision to send drones into Poland and Rumania.
The long game of the Ukrainian “Oil Plan” (*) seems to be growing in capability and effect. There can be no doubt now that the Russian government must be looking at long-term trends, and must now be somewhere between extreme worry and panic.
I think it is a strong possibility that this is an explanation for the Russian short game of aerial provocation of front-line NATO members: it is not so much a bid for a change in East-West power balance, as it is a gambit to scare Western powers into forcing an end to the war now, before oil/gas revenue losses reach catastrophic levels.
Which I think could actually happen in 2026. It’s definitely going to be a tougher Winter to weather, with Russia having to balance internal consumption against foreign exchange in the face of shrinking supply. The unknown factor is the rate of growth in Ukrainian drone reach, payload, and numbers. It’s still early, but the trends are suggestive.
If this is what is going on, then we can certainly expect more, and bolder provocations by Russia, as the threat to their petroleum industry gets more dire. The only card they can play with any hope of ending the war on their own terms is coercing NATO into doing it for them soon. They may believe that this is possible.
I hope that they are wrong. I think that they are wrong, but I am probably on the optimist side of the scale of opinion. If they are wrong, and NATO refuses to be intimidated (as it must, for the alliance to continue in any meaningful way), then the time may come that Russia resigns itself to ending the war on terms that Ukraine can accept, far short of their current maximalist aims.
(*) WWII reference to USAAF attempt to cripple Germany’s warmaking capacity by destroying its fuel industry, which, according to Albert Speer’s postwar memoirs, almost worked.
p.a.
@TONYG: Well we’re spread thin keeping the world safe from Venezuelan inboard/outboards.
p.a.
@Carlo Graziani: How much are NATO, EU, other pre-tRumpism allies still reliant on Russian oil & gas, and might they be the weak link before Russia “breaks”?
Carlo Graziani
@p.a.: European nations began a process of de-risking their energy supplies in 2022, and that process is sufficiently advanced now that I believe the risk of disruption of energy supply to Germany (originally the most exposed due to decades of Ostpolitik) from the Ukraine drone campaign is not large. There is more risk to less-developed nations in this respect.
In my opinion the greater risk is political: if it should turn out that the democratic polities of Europe will not support a necessarily confrontational policy by NATO to reestablish some kind of deterrence of aerial incursions, then the alternative is capitulation to Russian demands and abandonment of Ukraine. Which, as I said, is not the outcome that I believe is likely. But there it is.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Marcopolo
Gonna assume Jay will see this: thanks for your reply to my comment/question last night. Didn’t get a chance to look at last night’s thread till just now.
I’d like to think the Baltic states, Poland, and Germany (and Scandavians) have started to undertake the work they need to counter Russia’s drone capacity but I wouldn’t be surprised if they haven’t. Generally speaking it seems militaries are not particularly nimble at adjusting to new challenges unless they are actually a part of the conflict.
And thanks to Adam for persisting—much like the Ukrainians.
NotoriousJRT
Thanks, as ever, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
“Generals are usually fighting the last war”
Gin & Tonic
Given the US’s response to Poland’s invocation of NATO Article 4, I believe NATO is already, for all practical purposes, dead. At best it is fragmentary – Poland will fight, Hungary and Slovakia will not, for instance. And the US will sit on its hands.
Gvg
I think there will be a new alliance without the US for a while and Americans are going to become increasingly upset at others leading and traditional friends being left in trouble. This is why I thought Trumps threats against Canada were a strategic mistake. Most Americans just can’t think of Canadians as a threat suddenly. You can propagandize a population into hatred or just touchiness even but not that suddenly when there was so much history and even propaganda going the other way.
Even the Russian thing is sort of more understandable in that when they were ruled by the communists we sort of pitied the ordinary Russian and pictured them as oppressed by dictatorship. We all expected them to do better after “communism “ fell, but it seems they had other issues still and didn’t reject communism out of a desire to have a society of fair laws, just out of being tired of starving due to the bosses not knowing how to deliver enough. So they got new bosses who are worse.
Russia doesn’t seem to me to have the resources to fight an even bigger war. I don’t see how this can work out for Putin even if he gets one success, and Ukraine is going to get more Allies plus probably some leadership. Also as soon as Trump dies, America will act more normal about Nato I think. I don’t think any of the other scum around him really care about Russia and they won’t bother to fight public opinion on that IMO. We may not be well led or effective but we won’t remain a Russian silent ally.
I wonder what China will do. They seemed to be trying to help Russia but I can’t see them deciding to go down with a sinking ship, and Russia looks bad….to me.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Harrison Wesley
@p.a.: No problem. Once USA has conquered Venezuela,we can supply Europe with all the oil it needs. For the right price,of course
Jay
For those interested, in many of the histories, the British Chain Home radar system get’s most of the credit for Britain winning the Battle of Britain.
Far more important were the Air Warden system. The Air Warden system predates the invention of radar, by quite some time. Air Warden’s watched the sky, were trained in aircraft identification, had a dedicated phone line, and were equipped with a transit that allowed them to plot the direction, altitude and direction of German Bombers, day or sometimes at night, dependent on visibility.
Each Warden would report that information to a Sector hub, which would use the results of many skilled eyes on the sky to triangulate the bombers and plot their paths. They would convey that information to Sector Command, who would alert the fighters, and the system was also used to “vector” the fighters onto target.
The system was also used to alert Civil Defense in the probable target areas, with enough time for people to get to shelter.
It was a network of 1.4 million people working together, all volunteers.
Ukraine has built a similar network, with some modern twists, like small portable radars, and cell phone towers that can figure out when a ruZZian drone is “piggybacking” off the cell phone tower, and triangulate the drone, and alert the network.
stinger
Thank you, Adam. Nearly 1,300 days of this. I imagine that’s taken a toll on you personally.
And bravo Ukraine for providing resources it can ill spare to help Poland.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: The EU is still refined petroleum products from India, who buys oil from Russia. The EU is still exporting dual use goods to Russia via Central Asia (& the PRC, Türkiye, the UAE, etc.).
The EU economy is very weak, squeezed by high energy costs (due to loss of cheap Russian gas), economic coercion from the US, and industrial competition from the PRC, and right now vulnerable to the nativist far right taking power in the ballot box.
Finally, I have not seen any analyses that suggests that Russian cannot sustain its war economy for quite some time into the future, despite the increasingly far ranging Ukrainian drone strikes.
Harrison Wesley
@YY_Sima Qian: Your next-to-last paragraph frightens me,as it suggests that Western Europe is becoming Weimar Germany.
wjca
I would say that Trump and his team are trying to lead. Their problem is that our long-time allies are unwilling to be led to surrender, which is where Trump & Co are trying to lead them. Or, more accurately, drive them — Trump doesn’t really grasp the concept of leadership.
bookworm1398
I’m not sure why Russia would want an incident they could call a NATO attack when they can just claim NATO is attacking them without evidence. Atleast I don’t need to wonder why now this time, I’m still puzzled at the timing of 2022 attack.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
India has 13 major suppliers of crude oil, 22 minor suppliers of crude oil. Of the 13 suppliers, ruZZia is the largest, Canada is the smallest. Most effected by the price drip and smuggling of ruZZian oil were the UAE and Iraq. Because of secondary sanctions, India is reducing it’s reliance on ruZzian oil. Iraq will soon be their #1 supplier, again.
Once a product has been refined, it is almost impossible to determine the source of the crude oil that was the base of the product, as for many products, like gasoline, a variety of different blends of crude oil are required. Without imports of Western Heavy Crude from Alberta and Sask, the US would not have any gasoline, for several years until refineries could change out their “crackers” and production lines to use, for example Venezuelan heavy crude.
So, the only way, if you are importing refined products, to cut out all possible ruZZian oil, is to stop buying refined products and byproducts from any country using ruZZian oil, imported byproducts and distillates.
So China, India, Turkey, Slovakia, Hungary, Spain, Venezuela, and 23 other countries.
Say goodby to WD-40, Vasaline, Vicks Vapo Rub, AvGas, Low Sulphur Diesel, many gasoline blends, and thousands of other products.
Jay
@bookworm1398:
As Adam often repeats, “probe with bayonets, when you find steel, withdraw, when you find mush, attack.” is an old Soviet mantra or doctrine.
The drone flights are provocation, intel gathering and a probe, (so far, finding mush).
If a NATO aircraft oversteps the border, ruZZia has a cause belli for their next escalation. If NATO doesn’t respond, ruZZia has a reason to escalate. It’s a win-win for ruZZia.
There is no mystery about the timing of the 2022 attacks. ruZZia had finished major military exercises in Belarus and along the Ukrainian Borderlands, activating many “mobliks” for the exercises, so the ruZZian Army was as large as it was going to be, with out causing a Western panic, the Sochi Olympics had ended, and the FSB and GRU were telling Putin and the Senior Command were telling them that Ukraine was a rotten Kherson watermelon just ready to be kicked in, and that they had people on “the inside”, ready to do major sabotage and coup the Government. The LPR and DPR told Moscow that they had the men trained, mobilized and ready, they just needed a few more million rubles and some more hardware. Lushenko agreed that the ruZZian troops in Belarus, could attack from Belarus with Belarus getting no “blowback”.
MountainBoy
Thank you for your amazing summaries each day Adam!
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Hey.
I’m not at all suggesting that Russia could not sustain war effort going forward. I am suggesting that Russia is alarmed by the economic, military, and social implications of steadily depressed oil/gas revenue going as far into the future as Ukraine appears willing to keep up the conflict.
Russian revenues from oil were down 2% from July to August, according to this CREA report. That may not sound like much, but (a) annualized, it’s a 24% drop in the most important source of Russian foreign income, (b) it’s occurring at a time when the Ukrainian campaign against petroleum targets is just really getting underway, and (c) the Ukrainian development and industrial production of drones is spinning up to a level that must certainly remind the Russians of what even a shitpot nation like Iran with targets 1000km distant can achieve.
There is, of course, noise in that data, and it cannot be certain what amount of that drop is due to the drone campaign. So I plan to wait another couple of months to draw conclusions. But taking it at face value, and keeping in mind the fact that current damage to facilities necessarily registers its impact on revenue weeks or months in the future, I think it’s quite plausible to attribute anxiety about the future of this petrostate’s economic wellbeing to its leaders, irrespective of their undoubted ability to keep up war effort in the face of economic disaster. And the connection between that anxiety and their current campaign of provocations against front-line NATO states makes more sense than assuming that the Russians have decided to risk a conflict with NATO for speculative geostrategic gain while still wholly committed to a whole-of-nation war in Ukraine.
cain
@Gin & Tonic:
Trump will continue to give excuses and keep pushing deadlines. But a direct attack on Poland will galvanize all of Europe.
I don’t know about Hungary but even they will not want to become a client state of Russia.
cain
@Gvg: my only guess is that Putin’s health is deteriorating and he wants this to happen before he faces Lucifer for battle of control of Hell.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gvg: I think Hosuk Lee-Makiyama has the right take on Beijing’s view, in response to Michta (noted hardline China Hawk):
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Quite right, & thus why economic/financial sanctions is not the path to victory. & if it does not work [sufficiently] on Russia, it sure won’t work on the PRC, thus Trump’s posturing on 50 – 100% tariffs on PRC goods from the rest of NATO is just that, betrayed by his calling the Russian invasion “Biden’s & Zelenskyy’s war”.
Jay
@cain:
According to some ruZZia experts, Putin can survive a war economy with the rest of the ruZZian economy,
what he can’t survive is a “Peace” economy, with close to a million “Z” soldiers coming home, no fat paychecks, the costs for the wounded, the impact of the pardoned criminals and the violent on society, 80% of the ruZZian economy sent to the MIC and often stolen.
The returnee’s from the Afghan War had a huge impact on the USSR, socially and economically, and there were only 15,000 that fell through the gaps.
The First Chechen War brought back 25,000 or so, and tore up ruZZian society.
The Second Chechen War, some 35,000, and almost destroyed ruZZia.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Dolt 47’s “cunning plan” is to punish NATO for Chinese and Indian oil imports.
He is “Hundai-ing” NATO. Is it stupid, yes, is it a ruZZian Plan, probably yes.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam.
pieceofpeace
Thank you, Adam.