Over the past several weeks the just below the surface proxy wars and attempts to forcefully realign Middle Eastern politics, power dynamics, and alliances have come into full view. Over the past two weeks the Saudis and Emiratis have attempted to isolate their erstwhile Qatari partner. Turkey and Iran have come to Qatar’s aid as a result of the Saudi led blockade. ISIL conducted an attack in Iran and Iran retaliated with a missile strike on ISIL in Syria. We’ve also had ongoing Saudi operations against the Zaydi/Fiver Shi’a Houthis in Yemen and the ongoing low intensity war in Libya.
All of these actions and events have one thing in common: they are all about attempts to forcefully realign the politics, power dynamics, and alliances within the Middle East. A significant portion of this attempt to remake the Middle East’s political map is the result of a several year old proxy war between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey for hegemony in the Middle East. This proxy war is being fought over who will be the preeminent regional power; a power that will speak not just for the region, but for Islam. And this latter component is a major complication. The Saudis are promoting the Wahhabi understanding of tawheed – the radical unity of the Deity, which also forms the basis for both al Qaeda’s and ISIL’s doctrine/theology. Iran seeks hegemony not just to represent the Ithna Ashari/Twelver Shi’a that are the majority in Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain, a significant plurality in Lebanon, a significant minority in Syria – including the Alawite sect, and are a minority in several of the other Gulf states, but also on behalf of the Ismaili/Sevener and Zaydi/Fiver Shi’a throughout the region. Finally, Erdogan’s Turkey seeks to not just reassume its historic role of being the North-South and East-West bridge and power player in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the trans-Caucasus, but also to represent and speak for Islam throughout the region. Specifically Erdogan’s politicized Islam.
Against this backdrop we also have the ongoing activities of al Qaeda’s regional proxies throughout the Middle East, as well as ISIL’s ever more tenuous attempt to hold on to actual physical territory as part of their self proclaimed caliphate: the Islamic State/al dawlah al Islamiyah.
The events of the past several weeks are not sudden developments, rather they are just the most recent eruptions of actions and decisions and jockeying for position that go back years. For instance, the Qatari government has long been a funder of the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremist groups throughout the region. And so has Saudi Arabia and many of the other Gulf Cooperation Council states. The Qataris, the Saudis, and the other GCC member states fund these groups because they allow them to either punch above their weight class (Qatar) or act through proxies to prosecute their regional disputes (Saudi Arabia). One of the reasons that Saudi’s leadership is upset with Qatar is that they’re often funding groups that are in opposition to each other. Simply put Saudi finds Qatar’s use of its wealth to meddle in regional affairs to be interfering in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to use its wealth to meddle in regional affairs in such a way as to allow Saudi Arabia to emerge as the new regional hegemon.
The proximate cause of the dispute appears to involve three related things. The first is the attempt by Saudi’s Deputy Crown Prince and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince to both extend their interests in the Middle East and to cultivate and manipulate the President. The second, more excuse to provide cover for the blockade than anything else, is Saudi discontent with Qatar’s payment of almost $1 billion in ransom money. Ransom money that went to both Iranian security officials and an al Qaeda faction in Syria. The final straw that broke the camel’s back was a Russian active measure directed against the Emir of Qatar. Specifically the hacking of a Qatari state news agency and placement of a completely fabricated news report about the Emir of Qatar’s remarks at a graduation ceremony. This fabricated report, of remarks that were never made, included a transcript of the remarks the Emir never made. These remarks included statements of support for Iran and Israel. It is interesting to note that in the two weeks prior to the hack a series of fourteen different op-eds were published in US news outlets asserting that Qatar was a regional security threat.
All of this is an attempt to suck the US into taking sides in the various proxy wars and disputes being contested in the attempt to force a realignment within the region. These proxy wars don’t just include funding extremist groups and providing intelligence support to different groups and factions throughout the Middle East. They also include trying to influence the US to take specific actions and choose up sides. This is done in a number of ways. From the attempts by Saudi’s Deputy Crown Prince and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince to cultivate the President for their own ends, to manipulating American public opinion, to manipulating America’s strategy and policy debates about the region. This latter activity is exceedingly important. All of the GCC states, awash with money, spend significantly large amounts to forcefully change the direction of US strategy and policy to suit their own ends. They do this by lavishly funding think tanks and research institutes whose fellows and scholars then author reports and position papers, serve as consulting subject matter experts and expert witnesses, and write op-eds all about what the US should do and on whose behalf it should be done. As a result the US’s policy and strategy boundaries are not only heavily influenced, but also heavily limited by the activities of fellows and scholars at think tanks and research centers that are funded by a number of different wealthy state actors and hyper-wealthy elite individuals.
Russia’s active measures against Qatar were something else. In many ways the actual target of that action was not the Emir of Qatar. Rather it was the President of the US via its other regional ally Saudi Arabia. Russia’s goal is to create chaos and suck the US deep into it in order to weaken the US. Creating conditions for the President to support Saudi’s blockade of Qatar does just this. Over 11,000 US military personnel, as well as a significant chunk of DOD and Service civilians and contractors are assigned to CENTCOM’s regional headquarters at al Udied Air Base in Qatar*. Al Udied is often the US’s only regional air base for coalition air strikes against ISIL in Iraq and Syria, as well as to provide air support for ongoing US and NATO operations in Afghanistan.
Russia’s isolation of Qatar by manipulating information and psychological operations to create a Saudi blockade of Qatar was a good first step in achieving both its regional goals and its anti-US objectives. Iran and Turkey recognizing an opening through which they could achieve their own objectives by providing blockade and security relief to Qatar, further complicating things, was an even better result. The President endorsing the blockade of a vital regional partner that houses CENTCOM’s regional headquarters was, perhaps, the best result that Russia could achieve short of everyone being ordered out of al Udied while the US and its Coalition partners seek to prosecute the war against ISIL.
What remains to be seen is what happens next. Whether cooler heads will prevail or not. There have been recent reports that US allies have been informed that Secretaries Mattis and Tillerson are making relevant policy, not the President. There have also been reports that two LTG Flynn holdovers (Flynnstones) on the National Security Staff are seeking to push the US into a war with Iran over the objections of Secretary Mattis and General Dunford, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. And there is a real worry that regardless of who is actually making relevant policy, that policy development and strategy formulation is significantly hampered by the dearth of appointed staff at the Department of Defense, each of the military Services, and the Department of State. As a result the commanders on the ground, operating under policies and strategies carried over from the Obama Administration, are formulating and executing their theater strategy without sufficient input and oversight from the National Command Authority. No matter how good these commanders are at their jobs, no matter how well meaning, eventually the enemy’s votes will begin to matter and/or their decision making will be overcome by ongoing events in theater.
* Before anyone asks, the Qataris spent over a billion dollars of their own money to build al Udied Air Base. They did this because they wanted the US to put CENTCOM’s regional headquarters there. So Qatar is definitely paying up.
Brachiator
On the June 15 episode of the BBC News Hour Extra, one of the guests claimed that the Saudis “played Trump by feeding him the idea that it was all about Qatar and all about the [Muslim] Brotherhood.”
burnspbesq
Fred Thompson’s famous line from The Hunt for Red October comes immediately to mind:
“This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”
Patricia Kayden
The two Flynn holdovers need to be kicked out. I’m curious as to what they think the US would get out of a war with Iran. The US couldn’t win in Iraq and is mired in Afghanistan. We’re also shooting down planes in Syria. How many billions more can we afford to shell out to the defense industry to fight another war?
Adam L Silverman
@Brachiator: Yep.
Adam L Silverman
@burnspbesq: Without a doubt.
Adam L Silverman
@Patricia Kayden: Cohen-Watnick is very close to Frank Gaffney. Has been since he was in high school (he grew up with Gaffney’s daughter as a friend). So…
Timurid
@Patricia Kayden: I wouldn’t be shocked if Flynn was still running those guys…
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s not really reassuring.
PeakVT
A lot of days I feel that we should just let everything east of the Dardanelles burn. Its a mess over there, we have no clue whatsoever how to make it better (and we have only made it worse in the past decade and a half), and I’d rather we spend our treasure on things at home. We could have built a pretty extensive HSR system with what we’ve expended on the area since 2001, for example.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: It is not.
Adam L Silverman
@Timurid: That is the big question right now. Just who are Cohen-Watnick’s and Harvey’s benefactors preventing LTG McMaster from removing them.
efgoldman
Even WITH a scorecard, I can’t tell the players.
If this wasn’t so serious, and isn’t on the way to putting about 1/3 of the world in flames over a religious war, it would be farce, in Abduction from the Seraglio costumes.
Timurid
@Adam L Silverman:
Yep, I wouldn’t be shocked if Flynn was still running them and I would be only mildly titillated if I learned it was being done with the consent of Trump, Kushner, Tillerson or some combination of the above.
jl
Thanks for an informative and distressing post.
As I typed earlier today, before the election I regarded Mattis as a dangerous extremist on Iran. But today I read he is trying to prevent the Trumpsters from turning US Syria policy into a dangerous and doomed proxy war against the Iranian axis. Well, times change.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: Mattis has scar tissue from the Marine barracks bombings in Lebanon. But he’s not stupid. He knows exactly how hard it would be to prosecute a war against Iran. Both in Iran proper and what will happen when Iran directs its proxies in Iraq and Syria against the US forces in the region.
cain
The other thing I got out of this is that the entire right wing movement is one big propaganda machine for the Russians and Saudis. Funding all these thinktanks to create propaganda so that our right wing voters including our President be tricked into supporting things that would be detrimental to us as a Nation.
By electing Trump, we have signaled to the rest of the world that we are ripe for manipulation and we have a President who can also easily manipulated. The Republican party have gone so off the deep end that they care more about short term benefits of the money than where the U.S. will be 6 months to one year from now.
We are so fucked.
Great write up, Adam!
Adam L Silverman
@cain: The manipulation was well underway for decades before the 2016 election. And it isn’t just right wing think tanks. Brookings has significant funding from Qatar. And all of them, left, right, center, non-partisan, get funding from hyper wealthy elites. All of this has significant effects on what the policy and strategy debate will be – basically setting limits/narrowing it – let alone what the policy and strategy will actually be.
japa21
I am not going to argue that Obama was some kind of mastermind when it came to figuring out the ME, but he had much more than a basic understanding of the dynamics, plus, he surrounded himself with people who had an even better grasp of the subject.
In Trump, and his staff, we truly have the blind leading the blind. Hopefully it won’t be over the cliff edge, but I have a feeling the odds are fairly good it will be.
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
So, what’s to be done? It seems that’s like they are paying huge sums to these writers and these writers are not saying that they are being funded yb outside groups. Seems like we need to make some changes in regards to these thinktanks.
Adam L Silverman
@cain: I have no idea. I also am never really sure how much effect the funding sources have. Take Norm Ornstein at AEI. He’s clearly not tailoring his thoughts to whoever is funding AEI. But that’s the real problem. Their is no way to know just how much effect there may be. Both overall and on any specific researcher.
Omnes Omnibus
@cain:
Absolutely. Do you want to start there or with the MSM?
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: There’s actually a lot of overlap and double dipping. Most of the MSM analysts not only have full time jobs as journalists but are often senior fellows at one or more think tanks and research institutes. It is often very hard to keep it all straight.
Suzanne
@efgoldman:
Agreed.
I am more educated than the average bear on these issues—I did a lot of study in college regarding major world religions, and I try to understand the geopolitical landscape as a layperson now. I grew up raised by my grandfather, who was very well-traveled and had a lifelong interest in war history, so I was brought up discussing these types of issues. But holy shit, the more I read about this part of the world, the less I know.
Lizzy L
@Omnes Omnibus: Heh.
Adam L Silverman
Hmmm…
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I know. “Somebody should do something” doesn’t do anything – which really my point.
Adam L Silverman
This is one very stupid person:
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Tracking.
Another Scott
I think we need to keep an eye on the gorilla in the room as well – namely, oil. Saudi Arabia has had big budget deficits, is trying to cut subsidies, and is trying to wean their economy off oil, but don’t have an easy path ahead. Just like Putin, SA and most other members of OPEC desperately want higher oil prices. Beating up on Qatar has an added benefit of keeping oil prices higher than they otherwise would be.
With the continued advances in renewables and in electric cars, and the global warming necessity to cut CO2 emissions, oil prices will continue to be under pressure.
The newish leaders in SA may also figure that time is running out for their system and they have to quickly make things better domestically or risk (more) rebellions. Driving up oil prices, and ramping up Wahhabi nationalistic sentiments, both can help them in that effort – while causing issues for the rest of us…
It’s getting awfully dangerous out there… :-(
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
efgoldman
@japa21:
Especially because his “staff” of experts in State and DoD is mostly empty desks and empty offices. They don’t give very useful advice.
dnfree
Wow. The ad being presented in the comment stream right now is “Leaked video will ruin Obama. Watch his guilty face at 0:33”. Glad to see them spending their money where it will do so little good!
Another Scott
Hey Adam. Is there a post of mine in the trash/dungeon/time-out room? My musings just disappeared and I don’t want to clutter this thread up with multiple attempts to foil the filters.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: I’m thinking of writing something on that latest great plan. It has resemblances to Trump’s earlier desire to work with the Soviet Union.
I also keep thinking that Flynn’s escapades have the flavor of some of what went on during Iran-Contra. I have not worked out the parallels. It may just be so many crazy things instigated by one person. If a cake shows up, I will write that post.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: It went into the trash for some reason of which I have no understanding. I’ve freed it.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Shaped like a key. With a bible.
Ladyraxterinok
Trump has failed to fill so many positions at State, the DOD, and other departments, agencies, etc, necessary to understand and deal with events ìmportant to our security. Isn’t this failure–ìn a world of ŕapid developments with potentially deadĺy consequences–close to treason? Ìt’s certainly not defending and protecting the cojntry.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cheryl Rofer: Interesting thought. I would like to see where you go with it. If you have time and inclination and all that.
jl
@Another Scott: I’ve been hearing about the situation in SA from some workers who are visiting from there. Very eye opening. People unhappy because of cuts in govt benefits due to low oil prices. Difficulty of people realizing they and the country will have to make its way in a post fossil fuel economy. They say has always been assumed that it would be a very gradual phase out, but now economics of renewable energy has made the reality of the transition more real to people, and time line much shorter.
Edit: they are quite liberal and cosmopolitan people, so probably biased. But they say they think a lot of the leadership thought they could ride out a lot of problems because the world would need their damned oil for a long time to come. Big surprise! The visitors are quite concerned about global warming, so they hope for post fossil fuel world but worry about the transition.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: Well, that would be a distinct parallel, but I would take any old cake as tying in.
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve got a bunch of things going this week, plus at least three longer-term posts I’d like to write. We’ll see how it goes.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cheryl Rofer: I’ve been in the dating world. I know that that means no. ;)
Cain
@Omnes Omnibus:
The MSN is hopeless we can target think tanks because the general population would not give a shit and we can stomp em. But not until we when the midterms
Wag
@japa21:
In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.
Steve Bannon is that man. Unfortunately, his vision is hampered by a severely distorting cataract, rendering his vision too dangerous to even consider.
jl
@jl: They wonder what the Saudi ‘identity’ will be. Been so wrapped up in getting rich off the country’s oil for as long as people can remember. Who will they be without that. They are pretty cynical about SA identify as official protector of Islam. They say they not sure enough of the population of regular folk believe that stuff. Anyway, interesting to hear their perspective.
Chet Murthy
@jl:
The day the oil runs out, or nobody wants it, the Saudis are *done*. They’ve spent the last half-century stomping on their neighbors, spreading their murderous Wahhabi sect, and doing shit-all else. True story: in a prior job, my former manager was leading an engagement to do some significant work in KSA and the Emirates. Involved significant I/T work onsite. Was well-nigh impossible to get people from elsewhere to sign up to go. even the Egyptians (right next door, ffs) didn’t want to go.
Iran may be our geopolitical adversary. But ffs, they’re so much more civilized than these Wahhabi nutjobs.
Another Scott
@jl: Interesting, indeed. Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
T S
@PeakVT: No, everything extra gets turned into tax cuts for the rich from now on. Let the ME burn? That saves money for one domestic project only: tax cuts for the wealthy.
Raven Onthill
Groan. Juan Cole from 2015:
polyorchnid octopunch
@Adam L Silverman: Paid to be about certain things.
Doug
It’s “trans-Caucasus,” which is itself a bit of an archaic term. Nowadays, “North Caucasus” and “South Caucasus” are most commonly used. The South Caucasus is trans-Caucasus, i.e., on the other side of the Caucasus Mountains, from the perspective of Moscow. You can see why we might not want to use that nomenclature. (My better half once led the South Caucasus office of a German foundation, and we lived in Tbilisi for 3.5 years.)
TenguPhule
@Suzanne:
This is normal and the beginning of wisdom.
TenguPhule
@efgoldman:
If it helps, all of them except for the Kurds hate our guts and do not want our troops there.
Barney
Just to add the latest twist: Iran claimed the Saudis killed an Iranian fisherman on Friday. The Saudis claim they captured 3 Iranian Revolutionary Guards piloting a boat full of explosives towards a Saudi oil rig: http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/saudi-arabia-disrupts-attack-offshore-oil-field-48124739
The Pale Scot
@Another Scott:
And since oil is priced in dollars, the USD. Without the petrodollar prop up, the dollar becomes just another fiat currency. The short term T-bill market, which is how corp pay each other (buying 100 mill in T-bills shows proof of ability to pay) tanks, long term T-bills become just another way to try to hold on to the value of your savings.
Who benefits? Anyone with a nuke inventory (to maintain sovereignty) and oil to sell. Who could that be? (scratches head)
Kristine
Has the US been consistently played in the ME, or do we have any influence anywhere? I read this, and can’t help but think the former.
NorthLeft12
@Brachiator:
I think this is all you needed to say. Deadbeat Donald has an insatiable appetite for approval, praise, wealth, and publicity.
NorthLeft12
@Adam L Silverman: The Saudis with nukes? I am almost surprised they don’t already have them.
Actually the more I think about it, what is holding them back from getting them?
D58826
Well since Der Fuhrer is such of a big fan of building walls maybe he should build one around the ME. Let the locals sort out their own destines w/o involving the rest of the world.
And yes that is very frustrated snark. I got half way thru Adam’s well written and detailed piece and decided it would be better to go out and play in traffic on i-85. Ann Coulter is a bigoted piece of trash but her idea of ‘give them all guns and then let ALLAH sort it out ‘ may have some bitter merit to it.
Betty
I wish all Americans could read this and understand what’s going on. Alas, it is not to be.
sharl
@The Pale Scot:
When I first learned of the importance of oil pricing in USD for helping to keep the US economy stable and robust, it occurred to me that, yes, maybe our idiotic invasion of Iraq was “for oil” in a sense (as so many suspected), but an explanation based on international petroleum economics and the desire to prop up favorable USD exchange rates might be the more precise reason for our invasion. It’s a more difficult concept for the economic layperson to understand though (myself included).
That pre-invasion secret Energy Task Force meeting Cheney held with a group of oil company executives remains interesting to me; I don’t think details have ever come out about the discussions held there. Given the catastrophic results that followed, and what we may be heading toward now in that same part of the world, it would be good to publicly dredge all that up again.
Adam L Silverman
@Doug: Last time I checked, albeit a couple of years ago, Trans-Caucasus was what the Army was still using. As for the misspelling – that’s all on me.
JR in WV
@NorthLeft12:
I suspect the KSA only has to wag the Pakistani tail to exert their nuclear power.
EthylEster
A bit OT but …last night I watched (on C-SPAN) General Joseph Dunford at the National Press Club gone on and on about how great our upcoming Afghan adventure is going to be. He was so smooth when discussing how we must show leadership and spend billions and not expect positive outcomes for years, if not decades.
The whole time I’m thinking: This guy loves war and believes it is necessary. He made it sound so important. And he is completely convinced that we will prevail (after years, if not decades) because our new and improve ideas about what works in Afghanistan. It’s like the last 15 years didn’t happen.