Republicans are viewing this race as their best chance in 14 years to take the Nevada senate seat.
Harry Reid’s seat.
Can Balloon Juice raise $5,000 in 2.5 days? In honor of Harry Reid?
Update: We didn’t just do it in 2.5 days – we did it in less than 4 hours! I am blown away.
T H A N K Y O U !
.
thruppence
Heck yeah – in for $50
Frist? Rly?
Just checked – tight race!
Joy in FL
I think I made the first donation!
Joy in FL
@thruppence: One of us is frist : )
WaterGirl
@Joy in FL: You guys can fight over first and second. :-)
Joy in FL
@WaterGirl: No fighting. I think it’s great we both got right on that donating thing : )
cain
🎜 Flash! Ahhhhhhh… savior of the political universe! 🎜🎜
WV Blondie
I just got paid – a month late – for a job, so I kicked in $25
But I notice the thermometer’s not moving. How often do they update?
SiubhanDuinne
$25 from me
WaterGirl
It says $100, but on the back end at ActBlue I can see that we are at $375 with 5 donations.
edit: And now just 30 seconds later I see that our thermometer shows $400. So it’s not instantaneous, but it is pretty darn quick.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
I’m in for $25
pat
Feeling quite generous, for some reason, I kicked in $250.
WaterGirl
@pat: Yes, you are!
Thank you all.
phdesmond
in for $50 — my first Nevada wager.
WaterGirl
@phdesmond:
“I’d like to place a bet of $50 on Democracy, please.”
Origuy
In for $25
Rose Weiss
50 bucks from me. I just received a small windfall so I’ve been looking around for deserving recipients!
Ninedragonspot
In for LXXV
WaterGirl
@Ninedragonspot: You made me google!
evap
I’m in for $50, but is this really a close race? Experts?
WaterGirl
Thanks everyone for jumping in on this.
thruppence
@pat: Bravo
thruppence
@evap: 538 says it is, for whatever that’s worth
evap
P.S. I’ve always been a Harry Reid fan, the story of his journey to becoming a senator is a great one.
WaterGirl
@evap: I am not an expert.
But David Plouffe was concerned about NV and specifically about this race and the Secretary of State on Pod Save America this week. As is Bob Casey.
Is this some effort to “run up the score” right before the close of the quarter? It’s possible, but it doesn’t feel like that to me, which is why I put this up.
I would like to have added the shrug emoji, but that emoji looks funky on BJ ever since we merged. One of my two favorites, so sad!
WaterGirl
@evap: When Republicans see blood in the water for a senate seat, our blood, I take it seriously.
divF
In for $100.
evap
P.S. again. electoral-vote.com has Nevada, WI, FL as “barely republican” and GA, OH, PA as “barely democrat” so they are predicting a 51/49 senate with dems keeping control. They also have Utah as “barely republican”??!!
Geminid
@evap: The Utah Senate rating is because the state Democratic convention voted not to run a candidate and instead endorsed Evan McMullin’s Independent Senate bid against Mike Lee. The Democrats are still running a full slate of candidates for the other offices.
CaseyL
In for $25!
Mai Naem mobile
I kicked in $25. I’ve been worried about Nevada for a while. A little bit ‘gut feeling.’ A little bit wondering if COVID lockdowns and its effects on Vegas be blamed on the Dems. Supposedly the gubernatorial race is close. In the back of my mind I’ve had my doubts as to how good a strategist Masto is since she didn’t do as good a job as the chair of the DSSC as she should have in 2020.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@evap:
51/49!? We were hoping to pick way more than that, at least to 52-53-54! Is this even with Dobbs factored in? If we only have 51 will that be enough to do at least filibuster carveouts?
And I thought Nevada was supposed to be a blue state?
randal sexton
Okayo, in for 25
Tom Levenson
Tossed another $50 into this particular hopper.
VFX Lurker
In for $25. 🥳
WaterGirl
Thanks, everybody, I think we can do this.
Mrs Ragbag
In for 100.
WaterGirl
@WV Blondie: It looks like it automatically updates every minute.
WaterGirl
@Mrs Ragbag: I don’t think I’ve ever noticed your nym before. I love that!
It made me giggle.
CCL
in for $50.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
what specific actions, or lack thereof, are you referring to ?
Nevada’s been a swingy state for a while. Harry Reid was predicted to lose in 2010, as I recall, when his opponent started saying we didn’t need Obamacare because you could just bring your doctor a chicken (ETA: Partly serious, but Reid was also an old-school pol with deep roots and widespread political network). Dean Heller lost to Jacky Rosen in the anti-trump swing of ’18 after barely surviving a trumpier challenger
coin operated
It shouldn’t even be close, but one reason might be because the Senate Leadership Fund is carpet bombing Nevada airwaves with attack ads against Cortez Masto. Her opponent is Adam Laxalt, a odious pile of shit who worked on overturning the 2020 vote here in Nevada. I typically do not donate money to campaigns directly, but In her case I’ve been chipping in $25 every payday. She’s done a lot of good for Nevada residents and we need to keep her in the Senate.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@coin operated: does the Laxalt name still carry weight in NV? I remember his grandpappy from the Reagan era, and I’m still sorta kinda not-quite-elderly. Did the so-called “Succession ad” get as much attention locally as it did on twitter? for good or ill?
Miss Bee
$25 from me.
H.E.Wolf
Also, anything we can contribute in NV may (indirectly) help Four Directions as they work to get out the Native American vote, insofar as they might be coordinating with other, non-Native, Democratic GOTV efforts.
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Nevada has voted for the Democrat the last few Presidential elections, but they have been close. One complicating factor in that state’s politics is that there is a lot of population turnover between the elections. And Adam Laxalt is a strong candidate.
Laxalt has an unusual personal history. He was raised by a single mother and was given her last name (and that of her father, Senator Paul Laxalt). It was not until 2010 that his father was revealed to be Senator Pete Domenici of New Mexico.
leeleeFL
I had donated to her on my own, earlier! I am trying to hit up a few. Got Masto, Fetterman, the DNC and want to send Warnock some ducats. I had a good weekend for tips!
J R in WV
We’re in for $250, don’t tell Wife ;~) — kidding, I’m doing this in honor of my appointment with the urologist this morning. The CT scan was clean, the visual inspection of my bladder was OK, tho painful as you can imagine.
I do have avascular necrosis of my right hip, which was found because of my urological issues by my new urologist, sharper than your average doc. So I also have an appointment with one of the better orthopedic guys around, he did both my shoulder replacements some years back.
Wife is watching Hurricane Ian news, which is same old windy story. People stayed on barrier islands to ride out the storm — Darwin in action, huh? I’m mostly reading SF with interesting aliens and starships and ancient rediscovered majik sigils… The more escapist the better, right?
Hope all the Jackals down there are OK, high and tight. The web cam at Key West’s Southernmost Point shows tourists dancing in the spray from the heavy surf, which is in spite of the shallow reefs surrounding Key West. I can’t imagine still being in Key West today… I would be way, way north of there!
Emptywheel.net has great analysis of Trump’s legal issues if you would rather see political analysis than Hurricane Ian analysis….
ETA: When I hit the contribute button and finished up with ActBlue, when I exited via the back arrow, I saw that our contribution bumped the total up instantly, unless of course others amounted to that amount at that instant.
Again, best of luck to all the FLA folks, I don’t expect to hear from Betty Cracker or Adam S for a while, hope they ALL keep their feet dry !!!
sab
@Geminid: Ick!
Politicians passing girls around like rock stars.
eclare
Great medical news overall, good luck with the hip!
Glued to The Weather Channel here.
Mai Naem mobile
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: nothing specific but usually the USCC chair usually gets part of the credit or blame depending on how their cycle turns out. I know 50/50 is better than 51(R)-49(D) but we should have done better in 2020. NC for sure.
WaterGirl
Hey, we are halfway there! You guys rock.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Geminid:
It’s not just Nevada or even the Senate. Reading electoral-vote.com was such a mistake
How could a 2020 election denier be a strong candidate?
WaterGirl
I hadn’t thought about Harry Reid for awhile, and now I’m sad again that he’s gone. He was a force of nature; it seems like he should still be here with us, fighting for democracy.
Yutsano
In way off topic news, the
mob lawyerCommissioner of the IRS is stepping down in November and most likely won’t get re-nominated. Oh wells.kalakal
$25 from me
Another Scott
I don’t know too much about her. This NevadaIndependent piece from 9/9 seems thorough and fair. She’s campaigning smartly.
Donated.
Cheers,
Scott.
skerry
Just added $25
Major Major Major Major
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yeah Beto isn’t going to win.
You don’t have to follow these things so closely if they like, cause you physical pain, you know.
Mai Naem mobile
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): i might be wrong but I believe all the big statewide GOP AZ candidates(Sen,Gov,SOS, AG, Education) this cycle are election deniers and there’s a decent chance that at least one will be elected.
WaterGirl
@Mai Naem mobile: You are correct that they are all crazies at the top in AZ.
Once we finish out the Purple House Races Fundraising, we are on to Protecting Elections in Key States, and the crazies at the top in AZ and NV will be the first ones added to that thermometer.
Any of the close elections could go our way, or not. Our job is to do everything we can so they do go our way.
Second only to that is no regrets – knowing that we did everything we could, even if we fall short of the results we want.
ian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Nevada is no easy state to pigeonhole. Perhaps only Alaska has higher turnover over population. The more Republican areas in the North have a more stable population, but are slowly losing younger generations who move to cities. This decreases their overall vote share but increases their Republican concentration. Blue areas like Tahoe, Reno, and Las Vegas experience huge influxes of new residents, some who may not be registered to vote or are only staying for short periods of time. Vegas is a classic boom/bust town, utterly dependent on tourism and a strong national economy.
This is from Wiki
Not a huge margin, easy for discouraged or transplanted voter numbers to overcome. Harry Reid’s ground game was famous for getting a maximum number of voters to the polls, here is to hoping Ms. Cortez-Masto can repeat the performance.
Mrs Ragbag
@WaterGirl: It was a name used in a Monty Python sketch. Think it was either Graham Chapman or Terry Jones.
Omnes Omnibus
@sab: ???
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@ian: I think David Plouffe said on the most recent O’Bros podcast that NV was the only state where Biden underperformed HRC
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Major Major Major Major:
I’m going to find out one way or the other. You can’t exactly hide from it. A neo-fascist government was elected in Italy last week and we have candidate for AZ governor, Lake, praising literal fascism, and she’s only a percentage point down from the Democrat!
That’s what I’m least concerned about. It’s this:
I understand that different states have different electorates, but Texas has a lot of Democrats and Independents still. What does this finding imply about the assumption that Dobbs would be the most important issue in the Midterms?
All of these toss-ups make me nervous too, like in AZ. Let alone election fuckery, all of the center-left parties in Sweden and Italy were expected to win narrow victories, but ended up losing in narrow defeats
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Not Florida as well? I thought Trump did really well in Florida in 2020 compared to 2016.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Mai Naem mobile:
Hopefully it’s not the SOS
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I didn’t catch that, but I did come away from Plouffe’s interview more worried about NV, that’s for sure.
zhena gogolia
Baud
@zhena gogolia: That is quite an image.
Major Major Major Major
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Dobbs was never going to be the most important issue in the midterms, anybody who said that… isn’t doing good analysis.
And I’m just saying, like, spending all your free time reading about doom and gloom on the internet is no way to live.
SuzieC
$50.
piratedan
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): YES, that Mark Finchem for Secretary of State (oversees elections), Kari Lake (Governor) and Abe Hamadeh (Attorney General). All have said that Biden’s win in AZ was suspect, regardless of the proof of the counting of the votes and the multiple audits.
Kayla Rudbek
@Yutsano: as good of a feeling as when Commerce got rid of Wilbur Ross?
And I’m in for $25
WaterGirl
@Major Major Major Major:
Have you talked to any women lately?
arrieve
In for $100.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Major Major Major Major:
Like I said, I’m going to find out either way. And I don’t spend every waking moment worrying about it. I spent the last few months tuning out and what good did that do me when I took a peek?
A bunch of folks on this blog said it would, based on Kansas. What do you think is going to be the most important issue, then? How do you squre the reports of increased D voter registration of women in several states?
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
I agree. The most important issue is the chaotic pullout from Afghanistan. /msm
Major Major Major Major
@WaterGirl: Doesn’t matter how many women *I* talk to, what matters is what the women whom pollsters–experts in extrapolating nationwide rates from talking to people–say. We’re talking about voters here, they’re incoherent morons.
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
It would not be the first time “a bunch of folks on this blog” were wrong.
Inflation and the stock market, unless something else comes up. Jobs, if things get worse. As seen in that poll you posted.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Major Major Major Major:
Well, then if that’s the case we’re probably fucked, right? I don’t know how you can be so calm about it. You have more to lose than I do
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
What do you have to lose?
Omnes Omnibus
@Major Major Major Major: I think pollsters are majorly underestimating the effect that that Dobbs will have this fall. I think their models are undercounting women. We will see who is right come November.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Depends on how bad things get, doesn’t it? I could lose my job, Social Security/Medicare will be utterly obliterated by the GOP, labor rights/protections will be eviscerated even further, elections will be an utter sham, the US/global economy will be damaged, climate change won’t be seriously addressed, all the way up to possible civil war in 2024
I just look around and don’t like where things are trending. Martin has said similar things; just the other day he said he can’t see how violence doesn’t happen in the future.
This feels like November 2021 all over again
trollhattan
Semi-related. Ugh.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
GOP can’t do any of those things while Biden is president.
ETA: Violence has already happened and will happen again.
ETA 2: What happened in November 2021?
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): We’re all gonna die!!
C Stars
In for $25, out for all the bickering. Have a good night, folks!
Will
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): We’re not necessarily fucked. We are running strong candidates in the open races for Governor and Senate in PA. We will very likely win those. We have a strong challenger to Johnson in WI, but WI is an almost evenly divided state so it will be tough to toss an incumbent so results will be tight either way.
Ryan is doing an amazing job in Ohio, but the state has trended more heavily Republican than Florida the past few elections. Ryan is trying be Sherrod Brown Pt II. If the polls are wrong and underestimate female (notably democratic female) turnout then maybe he pulls it off.
However all of the above are running in an environment working against us when it comes to money issues like inflation and the stock market. So it’s best not to ever count anything as a sure thing.
The races that worry me are Warnock in Georgia and Cortez Mastro in Nevada
Gin & Tonic
@Baud:
The Braves won the World Series.
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: The poll of voters held in Kansas not long afterDobbs had fairly striking result. Voters in a red state came out in numbers exceptional for a primary, and voted 60-40 against outlawing abortion.
Another data point is the large increases in voter registration since Dobbs, particularly among women. That and the Kansas referendum’s outcome are evidence more concrete than polling.
WaterGirl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Goku, speaking only as a fellow commenter on this.
I don’t have anyone pied, but damn, your doom comments are getting harder and harder to read.
I can’t imagine why you would want to, so maybe it’s not your goal to drag people down with you, but that would surely be the effect of your comments if I weren’t immune.
I find your comments tiresome, but they don’t drag me down. It seems like they derail half the threads, though.
You are doing this to yourself. Please stop. It doesn’t seem healthy.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@WaterGirl:
Honestly, you’re probably right. I apologize. It did feel good to donate that $25.
It’s never my intention to drag anyone down. Sometimes I have to vent but that’s probably not very healthy or productive.
I have been meaning to do that Postcards to Voters thing
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Baseball in November is an obscenity.
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
IIRC, we were already supposed to be in a recession according to analysts.
You seem to confuse “the GOP will try” with “the GOP will succeed.”
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: You’re not wrong.
Eyeroller
In for $50. Nevada has been a nailbiter several times in the recent past and in at least a few of those cases the polling was off just enough. Polling has not been great at least since 2016.
But gas prices where I am dropped 25c/gal in just a few days! Surely that’s worth something.
The Thin Black Duke
I dunno, Major saying that women will be staying home this November sounds more depressing than anything Goku is saying, if you ask me.
WaterGirl
Oh my gosh, we are at $4,300 !
Are we really going to get this done in an afternoon?
You guys totally rock.
Kay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Your analysis is bad because you oversimplify in some fruitless search for certainty.
Lumping together state races and congressional races is bad enough, but you then go abroad and include Italy and Sweden. It’s a midterm election and Democrats have the presidency. The BASELINE is they lose seats. You don’t need Sweden.
You can look at the Texas governors race and say Dobbs doesn’t matter and it’s inflation and the stock market but then why is Masters 15 points back in Arizona (senate) and Whitmer up 15 in Michigan (governor’s) race?
Do “inflation and the stock market” explain Mastriano in PA? Does Dobbs? Maybe it’s more complex than One Unified Three Word Theory?
Major Major Major Major
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, this is not a fun time to be on the likely-voter-model team.
Here’s Ohio, “likely voters”:
But even with registered-voter polls, the economy beats abortion for the (nonexistent) median voter.
This RV poll is a little old for my tastes (8/1-8/14), but found 77% of voters saying “the economy” is “very important to their vote” compared to 56% for abortion.
We could spin lots of yarns about how this translates into votes and for whom, but the responses are the responses.
Baud
@The Thin Black Duke:
I don’t think anyone can predict turn out that well.
Major Major Major Major
@The Thin Black Duke:
I didn’t say that!
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: You and me, both!
I watched part of a regular network TV show while I was eating lunch, and the plot line revolved around a woman who was raped and couldn’t get an abortion in her state – no rape exceptions.
So she travelled to another state where they DID have a rape exception, but she had to bring in a fucking police report of the rape in order to get one, and she hadn’t reported it. And it was too late to report it by that point.
She’s carrying the rapist’s baby and she resorts to violence and eventually uses an instrument at the doctors office to try to abort the baby. She was bleeding out and I don’t know whether they were able to save her life or not.
This is mainstream TV, like on CBS or something.
Women are pissed, and anyone who doesn’t understand that Dobbs is a big fucking deal are missing the boat. We used to be first class citizens, at least if we were white, anyway, and now we are cattle. Vessels. Forced births.
This is not ho-hum, they were pissed for awhile but, hey, inflation.
I am not telling you anything you don’t know, just jumping off from your comment.
The Thin Black Duke
@Major Major Major Major: Maybe it’s me, but quoting numbers from recent polls saying that Dobbs isn’t the dominant issue fueling voters this time around sounds like that’s what you’re implying. If women aren’t that concerned about their reproductive rights, that’s depressing.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Maybe I am. I hope I am.
@Kay:
You’re probably right, Kay
Baud
@The Thin Black Duke:
Hard to say. It’s the marginal voter that makes the difference. We don’t know how Dobbs will affect marginal voters.
Major Major Major Major
@The Thin Black Duke: like, imagine half the women naming abortion are normally republican voters, that would be a big deal even at 20%. Like I said we can spin lots of yarns. It doesn’t have to be a top issue to be a decisive one.
Kay
@Major Major Major Major:
Trump won Ohio by 8 when there was very little inflation and the market was booming. Ryan is competitive in Ohio this year although there is inflation and the stock market is slipping.
Although voters rank inflation as the top they seem to be inexplicably rewarding Democrats by keeping a red state senate race competitive (Ohio) and giving D’s an advantage on the generic ballot. If it really were inflation and they really blame Democrats it should look like a wave year for Republicans- shitty candidates prevailing just because of the R after their names, double digit leads on generic balloting. Nothing looks like anything coherent.
2010 was a GOP wave year and it looked like one – I don’t know what this looks like.
The Thin Black Duke
@Baud: It’s disconcerting to think that some “marginal” voters see abortion as being a “marginal” issue.
Gravenstone
@Gin & Tonic: Eventually, yes.
PaulB
@WaterGirl: Are we really going to get this done in an afternoon?
Yes. I just pushed us over the top.
Major Major Major Major
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): gotta agree with WG on this one. I’m not as worried about the bad vibes though so much as your mental health.
Baud
@The Thin Black Duke:
Liberal issues are always marginal to most voters. Doesn’t matter how important it is to us.
H.E.Wolf
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): ”I have been meaning to do that Postcards to Voters thing”
Yes! Do it. I find it reliably lifts my spirits when I write for their campaigns, and I like that their minimums are so small: 4 postcards are not as daunting (to me) as 20.
[email protected]
CapnMubbers
In for $100.00. Much trepidation but hoping for VICTORY!
WaterGirl
@Baud: What do you mean by “marginal voter”?
Kay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
I just don’t think you can discuss politics on a blog if you’re looking for certainty and rock solid predictions. You’re always going to be disappointed.
This is a wave year:
They had a 25 point lead in “voter enthusiasm” too. Something is holding Democrats up and keeping them competitive in what should be a VERY bad year for them IF voters main concern is inflation. I don’t know what it is and it seems like voters aren’t telling pollsters.
WaterGirl
@PaulB: Wow, that’s so great!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Major Major Major Major:
I’m sorry. My reaction above is partly why I’ve never shown my face at any BJ gathering. I don’t like causing a scene and making myself look like a fool.
I’m too old for this. And I’m tired of always having to say sorry. I just wish I would’ve kept my damn mouth shut and not fucking panicked like I do. I destroy my reputation and credibility every time I do it. And I derail threads doing it. I alienate people when I do it. Thanks for always being patient, M^4
Leslie
@The Thin Black Duke: I wouldn’t trust any polling or analysis that concludes women don’t care. I would not be surprised to learn that polling typically under-measures pro-choice sentiment. How a person answers that question to a stranger on the phone could vary according to a number of factors.
Obviously, nothing is guaranteed and we need to GOTV for all we’re worth, but as MMMM said, abortion doesn’t have to be *the* issue to make a difference.
West of the Rockies
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
As someone who has suffered episodic anxiety, may I urge you to chat with a therapist? It’s not a years-long commitment. Sometimes just a few visits (with occasional “touch ups”) can help
P.S. I like you and welcome your presence here. You’ve got broad interests. You so seem rather anxious though. (Can’t imagine why.//)
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Most voters in any election are base GOP or Dem voters. In competitive districts, the outcome depends on the marginal voter who comes out and the party they choose. A small change in marginal voters is all it takes to win or lose an election. If only a small percentage of motivated by Dobbs, that could make a big difference.
For example, Dobbs is a big deal for you (and me) but it has no effect on whether we will vote or who we will vote for.
Mai Naem mobile
@Major Major Major Major: its all okay to tell the pollster you’re pro life because the end of abortion rights is some theoretical issue but when there are no actual abortion rights and stuff becomes real women will come out and vote not just for pro choice candidates but actively against ‘pro life’ candidates.
Major Major Major Major
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): just looking out for you, man, no need to apologize. Take it easy or at least easier. And don’t be a stranger, you have my email if you wanna chat but not do it here.
SiubhanDuinne
Yes!! Juicers are unbelievably awesomely amazing.
trollhattan
Uh, good news, Florida? The Cajun Navy are on the way. Watch for speedboats and party beads, I guess.
More like bottle-hardened, amirite? [hey-ooh] Definitely agree with the “Keep you and your boat at home” sentiment.
WaterGirl
Wow, we did it! Thank you, everyone!!!
Kay
@trollhattan:
It looks so bad. I hope people got out when they could. I read that some who didn’t evacuate had taken family and pets and parked for shelter in multi story parking garages. It seems like that might work- 2nd floor?
grandmaBear
In for $50 and receipt sent.
Mai Naem mobile
@WaterGirl: you may want to think of adding Kristen Engel to your purple winnable seats – she’s running in what is kinda sorta Ann Kirkpatrick’s seat. Theyve tweaked the district to give more of an edge to the GOP. She’s a solid Southern Arizona candidate but covering a lot of rural areas.
Anotherlurker
Wow! Fund raising goal met in one afternoon! I could only kick in a Saw Buck, but hey, every little bit helps.
I’m proud of all the Jackals.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Major Major Major Major:
Thank you
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@West of the Rockies:
I’ll think about it and thank you
WaterGirl
@Mai Naem mobile: Could you copy that comment into the post from yesterday? That way I will be reminded to look into that tomorrow.
Link to the post.
trollhattan
@Kay: Agree, that water won’t be going anywhere for a good while, either.
Folks who live in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and have to deal with high water events (not the last three years, so yay us!) often raise their homes and build a tall foundation beneath so they’re at least out of the water if a levee is breached. You sometimes see mounds around properties for stashing tractors and cows and such in the event of a flood.
Many Delta islands are below sea level due to a century of farming erosion–the only thing keeping water out is a levee.
Another Scott
@Major Major Major Major: Polls have lots of assumptions that end up breaking in times of rapid change.
KWCH.com (from July 20):
The actual results, less than 2 weeks later, were a landslide:
Women are fired up and ready to go.
Cheers,
Scott.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@WaterGirl:
I sincerely mean this when I say it, thank you for all your fundraising efforts and everything you do here
Major Major Major Major
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): if your insurance covers it you should definitely give it a shot!
Kayla Rudbek
@J R in WV: do you have any particular recommendations as to authors? Personally, I’ve been reading Jennifer Estep and R.J. Blain, along with Ilona Andrews’ latest in the Innkeeper series (that one was online every Friday with weekly installments). However, I like romance with my fantasy and SF and your mileage may vary.
I am in a much better mood after calling Walgreens and getting my prescription sorted out. Yes, I know it’s working because I felt so awful without it.
Mousebumples
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): love PTV. Now that the youngest Mouseling is close to sleeping through the night, I’m going to start doing more of that. 😊
CarolPW
@trollhattan: Many (most?) of the islands were below the level of the Sacramento River at least part of the year from the beginning. When I was a kid there was a derelict paddle wheeler in the middle of a field on one of the islands that ended up there after a levee breach.
The guy across the street from us (1/2 mile away) was an Army Corps retiree. After the construction of the levees, my grandad was the first owner of the land our house was on.
eclare
@Kay: Some of The Weather Channel crews were in parking garages, so yes, that would be a good, or at least safe, spot to hunker down and wait for the cavalry.
WaterGirl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You are welcome.
Mai Naem mobile
@WaterGirl: done.
WaterGirl
@Mai Naem mobile: Oh, thank you for that!
Another Scott
@Major Major Major Major: re the NPR/PBS/Marist poll cross-tabs (18 page .pdf):
(Emphasis added.)
IOW, they had garbage data because they had garbage responses (too few cell phone people picked up), so they had to try to compensate by calling landlines (who is most likely to have landlines these days??) and then sprinkled fairy dust on the data to get the population to “balance” to a pre-pandemic, pre-1/6, pre-Dobbs snapshot of America.
Good polling is hard. It’s especially hard now. Don’t trust the polling.
Fight for every seat, especially now.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Eric S.
In for $42.
That’s my profit from betting the Cardinals to win the NL Central back in March.
If they win the NL pennant and/or the WS there will be more. :-)
Kay
@eclare:
They were in some “yellow zone” – not mandated to evacuate- and by the time they determined they had to evacuate it was too late to do anything else.
prostratedragon
Lizzo playing flutes,including a crystal flute that belonged to James Madison. Sounds like her Poulenc is in good shape.
eclare
@Kay: How scary, I cannot imagine. Fingers and paws crossed for all Floridians. The devastation is incomprehensible.
eclare
@prostratedragon: Saw that earlier! Love her. Feeling “Good as Hell” indeed.
Sister Golden Bear
@Major Major Major Major: The common clay of the new West.
Major Major Major Major
@Sister Golden Bear: did you see the twitter account that was making the rounds after the Alaska special? Some white woman whose main issues were like, vaccines cause 5G cancer, Native American rights, fish habitat preservation, and Joe Biden is a senile hologram, first time D voter.
Sister Golden Bear
@trollhattan: much of the Sacramento Delta is below sea-level due to over pumping groundwater leading subsidence.
IIRC, Sacramento’s flood danger is rated around the same as New Orleans. If the levees ever fail it’ll be catastrophic.
FWIW, there’s similar flooding dangers elsewhere. Guerneville on the Russian River regularly flood. Last time I stayed there the motel was basically on stilts (technically open carports on the ground level).
Sister Golden Bear
@Major Major Major Major: Didn’t see it, but this is my unshocked face.
Major Major Major Major
@Sister Golden Bear: everybody who didn’t grow up in the west was like “lol look at this fucking weirdo” and the rest of us were like have you been outside of a major city literally anywhere west of the rockies
WaterGirl
@Eric S.: Thanks for sharing your profits. We’ll take it! :-)
J R in WV
@Kayla Rudbek:
I do have some suggestions:
Patricia Briggs does werewolf stories in a series ( but mostly fuzzy people, not crazed killers, mostly )
P. Djèlí Clark is writing about a fictional Cairo with djinn.
P S Power writes a wide variety of fantasy and SF.
Beckiy Chambers writes a series about “Murderbot” who isn’t interested in killing and managed to become an independent person, novellas mostly. She writes other good SF too.
Eric Flint (et al) has a big series about a small 1999 union town transferred to 1632 Germany by a mysterious event. Democracy and science in the 1600s is weird, and there are dozens of books.
There’s one nice series about a world similar to ours, but ruled by the “Others” who are mysterious spiritual beings, mythological people… I can’t remember the author right now, so no help.
I’m bad with author names, there are quite a few I’m not remembering that I really like… Frankensteinbeck writes interesting stuff, “Please Don’t Tell my Parents I’m” something odd…
The Lodger
@J R in WV: Murderbot is by Martha Wells. Becky Chambers does Monk & Robot.
RaflW
In for $50 even after we made our goal, because, damn:
Not a lot of voters available to be moved. So it’s going to come down to turnout.
Kayla Rudbek
@J R in WV: ah, you’re also an Eric Flint fan! I’ve read a bit of Clark, and I will have to check to see if I have all his work yet or not. I will have to check out P.S. Power, Patricia Briggs, and Becky Chambers, and Frankensteinbeck as well.