Balloon Juice - Refusing To Let Those Fuckers Win Archives

Simon Rosenberg had a lot to say on his substack this morning, and I have turned some of that into lists that might be useful as we communicate with people who might not be as politically engaged as we are.

Simon Rosenberg sees what’s happening as an emerging opportunity.

According to Rosenberg, in recent days we’ve all been reminded that:

sometimes the wheels on the bus go round and round,
and sometimes they come flying off.
Trump has always been a ridiculous and cartoonish figure.
The Emperor never had any clothes.
He was always the old man behind the curtain and never the Wizard.

I just get the sense now that the buffoonish, dangerous, sundowning man we all see is now being seen by far more people.

A door is opening, people are waking up to the awful reality of Trump and not the right wing noise machine version of him.

You never know in politics what is the trigger that causes things to change, for new understandings to emerge. I have always believed that there was a limit to how fast some of his weak supporters would have buyer’s remorse, and come to realize they got played. In fact I’ve been surprised how quickly and consequentially his numbers have come down. Down, however they are, even on what was his greatest strength – immigration.

Which is why we need to keep working as hard as we can people. He is stumbling, failing, getting panicky, looking weak and pathetic.

An opportunity is emerging for us and we need to seize it.

That was from yesterday. This is Rosenberg today.

I made some lists from what Rosenberg wrote, because as text it was overwhelming and my eyes were glazing over.

What Trump Has Done

A quick summary – other than breaking a lot of things and enriching himself Trump has very few wins he can point to right now.

His economic strategy is slowing the global and US economies,
has caused our credit rating to be downgraded,
threatens the fiscal integrity of the United States,
raises prices on everyone and does not cutting them,
and will cause tens of millions to lose their health insurance,
tens of millions more will see their health care costs rise
and the overall health care system will be dramatically weakened.

What Trump Promised

He promised to end the Ukraine war,
bring peace to the Middle East,
end the Gaza conflict,
90 trade deals in 90 days,
rip Greenland from Europe,
make Canada the 51st state

In reality, none of that has happened.

global leaders are not bending the knee
and some are even mocking him to his face while visiting the Oval Office.
He keeps losing in court again and again, badly,
and judges are growing far more ambitious in their rulings.
He had to bring Kilmar Abrego Garcia home.
His bestie Elon tore into him, trashed his terrible budget bill
and [Elon]called on him to be replaced as President.
No one came to his birthday parade.
Rs keep losing and underperforming in elections.
His cowardice and indecision has become a global meme.
His budget bill is wildly unpopular, and struggling to get through Congress.
What may be the largest protest movement in American history has formed against him.
It has become impossible to hide the buffoonery of his Star Wars bar cabinet.
He looks terrible.
His ties are longer, his pants higher and his Truths more unhinged.
He fled the G7 on Monday.
Respected elected officials in America are getting arrested, charged, assaulted and assasinated.
Marines are on the streets of an American city.

Everything he is doing appears designed to make China and Russia – not America – great again.

The circle of defiance to Trump’s agenda of sabotage, plunder and betrayal keeps growing and growing. The world, the American people and reality itself just aren’t bending the knee. Our democracy is proving more resilient and our people more patriotic than he expected. This thing simply isn’t working as this delusional, vainglorious, sundowning old man thought it would.

We, all of us, clearly do not understand how STRONG AND MIGHTY he is.

And now I’ll repeat what Rosenberg wrote yesterday

I just get the sense now that the buffoonish, dangerous, sundowning man we all see is now being seen by far more people.

A door is opening, people are waking up to the awful reality of Trump and not the right wing noise machine version of him.

You never know in politics what is the trigger that causes things to change, for new understandings to emerge. I have always believed that there was a limit to how fast some of his weak supporters would have buyer’s remorse, and come to realize they got played. In fact I’ve been surprised how quickly and consequentially his numbers have come down. Down, however they are, even on what was his greatest strength – immigration.

Which is why we need to keep working as hard as we can people. He is stumbling, failing, getting panicky, looking weak and pathetic.

An opportunity is emerging for us and we need to seize it.

Open thread!

Simon Rosenberg Sees Emerging Opportunity, and I Make Some ListsPost + Comments (124)

… because if he hadn’t I doubt that he would have been permitted to write this article, which should be a wake-up call to all of us, even those who are already paying attention.

I’ll share several snippets here, but you really should read the whole thing.

This Is Not a Drill

There are two disastrously wrong ways to read the news from Los Angeles right now, and the rest of America over the next few days. The first is to believe that there is actually anything resembling an insurrection underway. The second is to believe that the Trump administration’s response to the nonexistent insurrection is simply cynical politics, an attempt to gain Donald Trump a few points in the polls.

What we’re actually seeing is much worse: An attempt to end politics as we know it, to deploy force to suppress dissent. Not eventually, but right now.

On the first point: No, LA isn’t a city in chaos, wracked by devastating riots requiring military intervention.

…

The chief of the Los Angeles Police Department issued a statement practically pleading with the Feds to stay out of the situation:

The Los Angeles Police Department, alongside our mutual aid partners, have decades of experience managing large-scale public demonstrations, and we remain confident in our ability to do so professionally and effectively.

Of course, Trump ignored that plea. He federalized part of California’s National Guard despite the opposition of the governor — something that hasn’t happened since 1965, when Lyndon Johnson mobilized part of the Alabama National Guard, basically to protect civil rights protestors. And Trump sent in some Marines, too, which would be completely crazy if the goal was to defuse tension and prevent violence. After all, the mission of the Marines, what they’re trained to do, is to deliver deadly violence.

It’s easy to see how this could spin out of control. Which is, of course, what Trump is hoping for.

But why does Trump want chaos? Many pundits and, I’m sorry to say, all too many Democrats assume that performative cruelty, both in the form of those ICE arrests and in roughing up demonstrators, will work to Trump’s political advantage. After all, isn’t immigration one of the few issues on which he polls positively? Doesn’t acting tough make him look strong?

Narrator: No! That’s not what the polls say.

And for those who don’t trust polls, Democrats keep beating expectations, often by very large margins, in special elections.

So have Trump and his advisers simply misjudged the politics here? No. The militarized response to the LA demonstrations and Trump’s warning that anyone protesting his military birthday parade (which millions probably will) will be “met with heavy force” aren’t about moving the poll numbers. They’re all about rejecting the idea that Americans have a right to oppose Trump policies. In the same interview Morris says it’s

part of his destruction of mutual tolerance for the party system, which is classic authoritarianism. And that’s it. That’s the motivation, and everything else circles around that.

In a follow-up note on Bluesky, Morris — who is hardly a wild-eyed radical — added this:

If Trump gets away with this, he will absolutely do the same thing during the 2026 & 2028 elections. He will manufacture unrest just like in LA and send federal troops to every major city as a way to intimidate voters and decrease turnout. Functional end to fair elex.

And Trump’s highly partisan speech to the troops at Fort Bragg — a name change the administration pretends is to honor a World War II hero, but is obviously a reversion to the old practice of naming forts after Confederate generals, that is, traitors — was a naked attempt to coopt the military in his tyrannical project.

Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, gets it. I’ve never had strong views about Newsom, one way or the other, but this line from his big speech Tuesday was what everyone who cares about this nation should be saying right now:

Democracy is under assault right before our eyes, this moment we have feared has arrived. He’s taking a wrecking ball, a wrecking ball to our founding fathers’ historic project: three coequal branches of independent government.

If you’re a pundit who thinks that this is over the top, you’re part of the problem (and you have been wrong every step of the way.) If you’re a Democrat who wants to ignore the ongoing assault on democracy so we can talk about Medicaid — important as it is — you’re hiding your head in the sand.

This is the moment. Everything is on the line, right now.

This is why we fight. But how?

This should be a hair on fire moment. June 14 is in two days. What can we do right now, and on Friday and over the weekend, that will have an impact?

So Glad That Paul Krugman Left the NYTPost + Comments (163)

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Trump should be leading, not lying.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

Simon Rosenberg Sees Emerging Opportunity, and I Make Some Lists

Simon Rosenberg sees what’s happening as an emerging opportunity.

That was from yesterday. This is Rosenberg today.

Everything he is doing appears designed to make China and Russia – not America – great again.

And now I’ll repeat what Rosenberg wrote yesterday

So Glad That Paul Krugman Left the NYT

This Is Not a Drill