Hanks has his nomination for the most underblogged story of 2003.
War
Like I Said
In the short term, I expect an uptick in bold and poorly planned attacks on American troops withe results like this:
American soldiers killed 11 attackers who ambushed their patrol using a flock of pigeons as a signal of the force’s approach, an American military statement said today, in an incident that appeared to be a further sign that the insurgency has not slowed after the capture of Saddam Hussein.
The military also said in other statements issued today that unrest continued in Ramadi and Falluja, two towns known for their support of the former Iraqi leader, and that American troops shot and killed at least two gunmen.
These “dead-enders” have nothing left, and this should taper down in a month or so, if not before. These are not rational actors with a long-term strategy. These are Ba’athists and other Saddam loyalists lashing out in anger and, more importantly, embarassment from the way their cowardly leader surrendered.
What will probably continue to be a problem are the suicide bombings and other acts of terrorism conducted by the usual coalition of whackos and jihadis from abroad. At least that is my prediction- and it is starting to appear that the Iraqi population has little patience for these wing-nuts.
The Saddam Aftermath
Jesse comments on the post-Saddam aftermath:
Long-Term Impacts Of The Capture
1.) The terrorist/Iraqi insurgency: Now, we’ll find out whether they’re fighting for a Saddam Restoration or against American occupation. While I certainly hope it’s the former (and that a speedy trial of Saddam set up over the next couple of weeks where his various horrific crimes are read in front of him, and he’s summarily locked up and interrogated lawfully until he dies), I fear that it’s much more the latter.
I think in the short run, we will see two results. First, the so-called ‘dead-enders,’ those Ba’athists and Saddam loyalists, will probably step up their efforts to create chaos, so I would not be surprised to see a small uptick in the frequency and ferocity of incidents. That should taper off, in very little time.
Second, the people are now no longer going to be afraid. Before, when they talked about Saddam, reporters frequently noted that there was still a sense of fear because Saddam was at large. That is gone, and I expect Iraqi’s will help the coalition more, and begin to quickly turn against the foregin jihadis/insurgents.
Third, the manner in which Saddam was captured, without even putting up a fight, might mute resistance. The emperor has no clothes.
2.) The hunt for WMD: Given the extent to which Saddam was apparently deluded about his own WMD program, I highly doubt he’s going to have any useful information.
I sure hope Jesse is wrong. I believe that WMD was one of many reasons justifying this war, and I have been horribly upset with our inability to turn up WMD. I believe it may be the greatest intelligence failure of my lifetime. I want to know where the WMD are, if there were any.
3.) The reconstruction: Its progress depends in large part on the insurgency. If there’s still one next year, the capture of Saddam, while a huge morale boost, if there’s still an anti-American (rather than pro-Saddam) opposition effort, we’re talking about the tip of the iceberg rather than the base.
I expect an international coalition will be involved with a large-scale reconstruction effort within 6 months.
4.) The PNAC plan: As we can see from Bush’s stance on Taiwan upsetting the “one China” balance, our ability to democratically remake the world through war isn’t going to work the way Bush or the neocons have planned. It’s going to be at least a year and a half in Iraq (provided the power transfer goes as planned in July, which I doubt) – these adventures, regardless of how ultimately successful or justified you believe them to be, are harder and take longer than those in charge plan for. It’s simply not a coherent or tenable policy in the long term.
Not sure what to make of this statement, as it is based on a bunch of ‘ifs.’ The one ‘if’ remains- ‘if’ power is turned over to a reformed Iraq in a timely period (1-3 years), as far as I am concerned, the PNAC crew was right.
They Did It Again
Those bastards did it again! Another poll-driven PR stunt at the expense of the taxpayers! This time the Secretary of Defense, instead of the Commander in Chief, went and visited the troops in an unannounced visit. Have they no shame! How dare they visit the troops! Will they do anything to get elected? Will they do anything for a photo-op!?!?
Be the first to find the following idiotic statements from the lunatic fringe:
1.) Some variation of ‘This just show the situation is so bad that Rumsfeld had to go unannounced.’
2.) Some variation of ‘This just shows what a coward Bush is, since Rumsfeld stayed so much longer.’
3.) Rumsfeld just went to upstage Hillary Clinton’s remarks.
4.) Sure, he will go to Iraq, but will Rumsfeld go to any funerals?
5.) He is just there to get his pal Chalabi in line.
6.) This is a sign of desperation- our policy and lack of plan is failing so bad that these stunts are just being done to distract from the miserable failure.
7.) This is just an attempt to distract people about our failure in Afghanistan.
I am sure there will be more. Who knows how these twisted minds work.
A Fair Assessment
To me, this seems to be a rather fair assessment of some of the politics surrounding Iraq.
How?
As a former M1A1 crewman, I have no idea how anyone survived this. My guess is it was the tank commander (who was probably standing in the turret and blown free) and the driver.
Quagmire Update
The noose tightens:
Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, Saddam Hussein’s top lieutenant, has probably been captured or killed in a raid by US forces, a member of the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC)said on Tuesday.
Mouwafak al-Rubai, a Shiite member of the IGC, told Reuters that US troops had conducted a major operation on a suspicious target in the northern city of Kirkuk, and al-Douri might have been killed or caught, Qatar-based al-Jazeera TV channel reported.
A US military spokesman could not confirm the report at the moment, but said the US-led coalition authority will give details about the incident later.
The US military has blamed al-Douri for passing money for or even coordinating a number of anti-coalition attacks, and offered a reward of 10 million dollars for anyone who provides information leading to his capture of killing.
US forces last month destroyed one of his houses near Saddam’s hometown of Tikrit and detained in Samarra his wife and daughter and a son of his physician, all of whom US officials said might help them to know about al-Douri’s whereabout.
Al-Douri, number six on the most wanted 55 list, was the vice chairman of the former Revolutionary Command Council and remained the highest ranking official at large other than Saddam himself.
I am sure this will be spun as bad news somewhere…
They didn’t catch him. Damn.
US troops that encircled the town of Hawijah for 12 hours on Tuesday in a swoop for Saddam Hussein’s deputy Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri as part of a massive manhunt across north-central Iraq failed to find the wanted fugitive, a US spokesperson said.
“Al-Duri was not captured in this raid,” said Major Doug Vincent, spokesman for the 173rd Airborne Division, which mounted the huge search operation, told reporters who accompanied the 1 200 troops involved.
The principal target of the search in this town of 80 000 people, 45km west of Iraq’s northern oil centre of Kirkuk, was someone who had a “close relation with al-Duri,” another US officer told reporters.
As Donald Sensing frequently notes, ‘First reports are always wrong.’