Jeff Merkley took the lead in the official count in Oregon.
***Update***
Find the latest count here.
Archives for 2008
We Get Fan Mail
Here:
Hey John,
Now that a democrat has been elected to your satisfaction, can you perhaps start steering your blog back to how it used to be, meaning meaningful discussion vs. crap about Sarah Palin’s shopping spree and referring to all conservatives that voted against Obama “racists”? I’m sure you get tired of those who joke that all WV’ers have moonshine stills in their back yard, right?
Look, if anyone can once show me where I said everyone who voted against Obama is a racist, I would appreciate it. Likewise, when Sarah Palin is running around talking about the real America and passing herself off as an everyday person, just like everyone else struggling to make ends meet “dontcha know,” all while claiming Obama pals around with terrorists and doesn’t look at America “like you and me,” pointing out that she ran around looting the RNC to the toon of near 200k at Neiman-Marcus and Saks 5th Avenue does not seem like I am piling on. These issues were relevant and substantive because the REPUBLICANS MADE THEM RELEVANT. When Palin’s entire message is that Obama is a scary friend of terrorists who is not like average Americans and favors socialism, it is PERFECTLY DAMNED FAIR to point out she is not like average Americans and does seem to love the filthy lucre. You don’t like it and think the campaign should have had more “meaningful discussions,” blame her. It wasn’t me sending out chain emails saying Obama was sworn in on the Koran and the rest of that bullshit. It was not me putting Joe the Plumber out there every night to say stupid shit.
And while we are at it, Real America spoke last night:
Results for Guilford County, where Sarah Palin made her remarks about real Americans in pro-America parts of the country:
Obama/Biden 58.75%
McCain/Palin 40.44%
Clearly Sarah Palin was wrong, and she was not in one of the pro-America portions of North Carolina when she made her remarks. And if anyone thinks I am going to not call Obama when I think I see bullshit once he is President simply has not been paying attention.
*** Update ***
BTW- I try to spread as many negative rumors about West Virginia as I can- I hope it keeps people out. We are all toothless, we all have stills in our backyards and sleep with our sisters and are ignorant and stupid. West Virginia is a terrible place. Stay in DC or New Jersey. You don’t want to come here. Serious. Terrible place to live. Awful.
How Good Was 538?
Again, for those of you who have never worked with stats, I am not sure you can appreciate how good Nate Silver and company were at predicting the outcome of the election. They were this good:
Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically — for instance, assigns North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time — comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.
We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.
Currently, Obama has 349 electoral college votes, and leads the popular vote 52.4-46.3, or, as Nate called it, by a margin of 6.1 points.
This uncanny accuracy is the equivalent of dropping a penny from the top of a 50 story building and landing it in a shot glass. And not one of those double-shot sized ones, either.
This is sick accurate.
The Dream Still Lives
At least my own personal dream. Erick at Red State:
I have just heard from Eric Cantor’s office that Eric will announce at 12:30 p.m. his intention to run for House Republican Whip. Cantor, elected in 2000, won his Richmond-area Congressional seat last night with 64% of the vote and received the highest total vote of any Virginia Congressman—including Democrats. (221,467 votes)
I hope he wins. I so hope he becomes the face of the GOP. Please let this happen. Harry Ellis for Minority Whip!
She’s All Class
Like Tom Levenson I sincerely hope that the hard right fringe wins the battle to make Sarah Palin the charismatic face of conservatism in America. Unfortunately as with all unrealistic dreams (in weaker moments I visualize what would happen to Pam Geller if we had a black president with a muslim name) I fear that I am setting myself up for disappointment. By the time Republicans finish counting the tab that she ran up on their dime, those cries for Palin ’12 might quiet down a notch.
NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin’s shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported…One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards.
In other words, the RNC’s $150,000 clothes bill was only the beginning. Sarah Palin ran up separate tabs with a wealthy donor, the campaign and even her own staffers’ credit cards.
Granted, that is pretty bad, but at least she did not run run around behind her running mate’s back like a petty criminal.
The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement….McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin during the campaign, and aides kept him in the dark about the details of her spending on clothes because they were sure he would be offended.
At least she did not soak her twenty-something aides for far more than the average recent college grad can possibly afford.
One aide estimated that she spent “tens of thousands” more than the reported $150,000,…
huh. The clothes were for her?
…and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband.
There has to be one extra little insult-to-injury that Palin could squeeze in now that she has soaked her friends for the price of a two-bedroom suburban ranch.
Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost.
Something tells me that if the GOP runs Sarah Palin anywhere it will be on a rail.
Winners and Losers
How ’bout a winners and losers (update- I added an epic fail category for the losers who went above and beyond the call of duty) thread for the election that we can add to as needed. I will start:
***
Winners:
Howard Dean- The 50 State plan worked. Indiana, for goodness sakes.
Plouffe and Axelrod- Best campaign of my lifetime.
MLK- His dream was realized.
Reggie Love- A name many of you will get to know more in the future. The guy behind the scenes who helped keep Obama as cool and as calm as he is.
Homophobes- The gay marriage props and amendments everywhere are a disgrace. Grow up, you wankers.
The Clintons- Say what you want about them, they came through for Obama. The PUMA’s were a joke, and that is, in large part, due to the aggressive campaigning of Hillary to get her supporters to head to Obama.
Collaborative Democracy in the Modern Era- Every future campaign will steal the ideas implemented in the 2008, from the fund-raising to the social networking and everything in between.
The Obama Kids- They get their doggie! I don’t have any kids, and in general don’t like them, but I have to admit that every time I see the O kids, I smile. They are just too damned adorable. I would bet any amount of money they get a scruffy looking mutt and name it something silly, because that is just how those kids are.
The country- We have an adult. Finally. I will not agree with everything he does, but at least he speaks in full sentences and is competent.
Our international reputation- ’nuff said.
Daniel Larison, Jed Lewison, Al Giordano, and the folks at 538– Hands down, for me, these were the go-to blogs. For those of you who do not work or have not ever worked with stats, I do not think you can downplay the impact 538 will have on future election forecasting. Nate Silver and company were amazing.
Chuck Todd- Bar none, the best political go-to guy out there. I hope he gets MTP.
***
Losers:
Karl Rove- Permanent Republican Majority. Heh.
McCain-Feingold- Not only did McCain take it in the pants last night, so did his signature issue. Public financing is forever dead.
The country- we had a chance to throw out William Jefferson, Jack Murtha, Michelle Bachman and Ted Stevens, and seem to have failed.
Right Wing Radio- Hannity and Limbaugh and others who viewed themselves as kingmakers are irrelevant right now.
George Bush- This repudiation of George Bush is more severe than his low approval ratings, because this election, unlike approval ratings, actually matters.
Joe the Plumber- Is now a running joke.
Sarah Palin- She is done. She has been proven to be toxic in regards to independents and moderates, and will never recover. Additionally, over the next few weeks, more stories like this, in which we learn her 150k spending spree was actually WORSE than initially reported, will begin to trickle out. I am salivating at the prospect of all the insider stories leaking out in which we learn just how stupid this woman is.
The Republican party as a whole- This once proud party has now collapsed and is little more than the new Confederacy. This is a regional party, and will be so for a long time, as only the real lunatic fringe is left in leadership.
***
Epic Fail:
Larry Johnson and the PUMA’s- Go crawl back in your holes, you miserable wretches.
Joe Lieberman- He is just worthless, now. Had the Democrats won 59 seats, he would have still been relevant, but as we stand now, the Republicans do not want him, the Democrats have no use for him and strip him of his chairmanship. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
Right-wing blogs- To say they ate their seed corn is to wildly underestimate the damage they have done to their online presence, because if you just ate your seed corn, there would at least be a short-term benefit. More accurately, they chewed up their seed corn, spit it out, stomped on it, defecated on it, then grabbed it and smeared it on their chests to form the words “WHITEY TAPE.” These idiots spent the last six months chasing the whitey tape, questioning his patriotism, calling Obama a Muslim, panty-sniffing for an Obama affair, calling Obama a terrorist and socialist and you name it, and the country shrugged. Any future Republican campaign will need to rely on the “intellectual” arguments of thoroughly discredited propaganda organs like the Weekly Standard and the NRO, and we now have six months worth of their stupidity on file to throw in their faces and discredit them in the future. I am dying for the next time Andy McCarthy or one of these losers is brought on a cable show to advance a Republican position. Just dying. Good luck with the “next right,” folks.
Kro-bama
I’ve been shopping at the same grocery store for about 5 years – the Kroger on Moreland Avenue in Atlanta. Most of the people who work there are African American. Because I’m a fairly social person, I have gotten to know 5 or 6 of the staff there fairly well.
Just got back from getting groceries there. The excitement on just about every one of these faces was awesome. I know these people and I have talked to them about politics because of the nature of this election. I think very few of them would have votred for Obama if he was incompetent. I would be willing to bet few of them voted for Sharpton or Jackson, for example.
I was wearing an Obama t-shirt, and I got a high five from a kid who was about 10 years old. I almost lost it right there. His parents can now tell him he can grow up to be president – and they can mean it.
Anyway, you could cut through the excitement and pride with a knife over there today!
We did it. Well, YOU did it. I couldn’t vote, but I shamed people into it, dragged them to the polls, and was a pain in the ass to a lot of people (including, by the way, a couple black people in my office who didn’t think their votes would make a difference in Georgia!) Hopefully, I did my part, too.