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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Egypt: “Hope This Will Be A Good Coup”

Egypt: “Hope This Will Be A Good Coup”

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This twet was a response to Salon’s Alex Seitz-Wald going #slatepitchy:

For many in the West, the apparent coup d’etat in Egypt today ignites mixed feelings. On one hand, Mohammed Morsi’s regime seemed to be heading towards dictatorship and the Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamist views are often antithetical to Western notions of democracy and human rights. But on the other, Morsi was fairly and democratically elected in Egypt’s first election, and the back-to-back military interventions could set a dangerous precedent. Which raises the question: Can coups ever lead to democratic outcomes?

The answer, surprisingly, is yes, according to two academic studies that have looked at the subject. A recent paper, via the Monkey Cage, from Nikolay Marinov and Hein Goemans of Yale and the University of Rochester, respectively, found something surprising that happened to coups after the end of the Cold War:

We use new data on coup d’états and elections to uncover a striking development: whereas the vast majority of successful coups before 1991 installed the leader durably in power, after that the picture reverses, with the majority of coups leading to competitive elections. We argue that after the Cold War international pressure influenced the consequences of coups. In the post-Cold War era those countries that are most dependent on Western aid have been the first to embrace competitive elections after the coup.

Egypt is one of the largest recipients of American military aid, which may be a positive sign for democracy, according to their theory. Whether or not that aid continues remains to be seen, however, as the U.S. government is technically prohibited from providing aid to a government that installed itself via a coup. But the definition of a “coup” is fungible and the law has never really stopped Washington from doing what it wants to, for instance continuing aid to Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak was ousted by the military two years ago…

I really, really hope President Obama takes off for the long weekend and doesn’t answer calls from the neocons and the more globally ambitious generals. I don’t pretend to know much about Egyptian politics, but I have been a citizen of these United States for over half a century, and when it comes to “fungible” definitions of diplomacy and how “the law has never really stopped Washington from doing what it wants to”, I am willing to make one firm prediction: This will not end well.

In fact, I’d set up a category under that title, except it would apply to at least a third of the posts on this blog.

Reader Interactions

60Comments

  3. 3.

    Lavocat

    It was always going to be a lose-lose option anyway. At least with a coup you MIGHT be able to avoid the immense bloodshed of a civil war – or, then again, it might only escalate from there.

    I lay the blame with Morsi’s ego. Fucking rat bastard.

  6. 6.

    PeakVT

    One thing I’ve come to realize is that most countries do a poor job of learning lessons from other countries. Take China’s horrendous pollution, for instance. Egypt is going to be a big mess for years. Hopefully not too many people will die in the interim.

  8. 8.

    sparrow

    Did they point out which of those dictatorships via military coup started in the first place because the US didn’t like the previous socialist but democratically elected govt? I’ve got Greece, Chile… There are more…

  10. 10.

    lamh35

    As I understand it, the US has the power to make European nations do it’s bidding, so I suspect the same can be done in Egypt and other parts of Africa as well…right?

  11. 11.

    lojasmo

    @Mike in NC:

    CNN is blaming Obama for the coup, just in case FOX News is slacking off.

    I’m relieved of my duties as well. Time to get some wine.

  12. 12.

    red dog

    In my long lifetime people have always been fighting over the Middle East. Let them go at it forever and ever. Keep all the nations busy and away from us.

  13. 13.

    Hill Dweller

    @Mike in NC:

    CNN is blaming Obama for the coup, just in case FOX News is slacking off.

    NBC(Andrea Mitchell) is doing the same thing.

  14. 14.

    Keith

    On a similar note, I saw a video recently with these two woman that I believe started with one saying, “Hope this will be a good cup.” It wasn’t, in spite of their reactions.

  16. 16.

    lamh35

    @Hill Dweller: ok, I understand there is always a reason to blame Obama, but can someone enlighten me on what how they are figuring that it’s Obama’s fault what happening in Egypt?

  18. 18.

    maya

    The second coup is always harder to comprehend than the first.

    She’s my little deuce coup,
    you don’t know what I got

  19. 19.

    Roger Moore

    @lamh35:
    It’s very simple: if it’s bad, it’s Obama’s fault. If you’re expecting some kind of factual explanation, you obviously haven’t been paying attention to the way today’s media works.

  20. 20.

    Gin & Tonic

    You’d think somebody who presumably gets paid to write about these sorts of things would know it’s “coups d’etat” and not “coup d’etats.” Yeah, I know there’s an aigu over the e, I’m too fucking lazy to find the way to type it, so screw you.

  24. 24.

    Keith

    @maya: It’s definitely a sign that he’s lost middle-aged women married to ancient, reanimated mummies.

  25. 25.

    NickT

    @red dog:

    You popped a cold frothy one?

    Damn, I’ve been wanting to punch Santorum’s smug face forever and you beat me to it.

  26. 26.

    scav

    @piratedan: So long as that’s a same-sex memo you’re kissing. Otherwise, off to the FEMA camps for you comrade! You’re lucky, there are lots of fireflies this year and I hear the friendship bracelet instructor is great. Or at least greatly amusing.

    ETA: seen and seconded, so history will still know what you did this summer.

  27. 27.

    Roger Moore

    @Keith:

    It’s definitely a sign that he’s lost middle-aged women married to ancient, reanimated mummies who want Ayn Rand’s warmed over rejects.

    FTFY.

  28. 28.

    piratedan

    @scav: sheesh, I fixed the typo toot suite and still get busted, well at least I didn’t tweet a private part to some unsuspecting poster :-)

  31. 31.

    Manly T. Randsauce, Libertarian Adventurer

    @Roger Moore: Ayn Rand’s warmed over rejects are worth any two union thugs. Americans can only hope that a hero emerges from the darkness of Egypt; someone who truly respects the free market and individual liberty, someone like: Augusto Pinochet. Ayn would have approved of him.

  32. 32.

    Linda Featheringill

    Egypt might do all right in the end. Consider France, The whole country went through several convulsions but ended up with a quite workable democracy. Maybe other countries can do the same.

  38. 38.

    Linda Featheringill

    Speaking of France [which I was] I’m reminded of the incident when China’s first Premier Zhou Enlai was asked for his opinion on the historical significance of the 1789 French Revolution, he replied: “It’s too soon to tell.”

    Maybe that’s true of Egypt as well.

  40. 40.

    JWL

    “It’s their fucking country”.*

    Not ours.

    That noted, I only add: “Best of luck, Egyptian people”.

    *(a line- perhaps a paraphrase- from the movie Go Tell The Spartans, set during the early years of America’s War in Vietnam).

  41. 41.

    Robert Sneddon

    Egypt had a military coup a couple of years ago that got rid of Mubarak and led to competitive elections which the Muslim Brotherhood won putting Morsi in charge. Two years later there’s a military coup that got rid of Morsi. Is it likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will win the next set of elections? They are still very popular in the country at large, if not in the big cities like Cairo. If they are barred from putting up candidates then the elections won’t be competitive and it could degenerate into the sort of mess Algeria got into in the 90s when the military, believing a popularly elected Islamist government was inevitable stepped in and a vicious civil war broke out.

    The Turks have the advantage of having Ataturk as a secular saint so when the military there steps in and shoots a bunch of pols they go back to the barracks and let the civilians sort things out until the next time. About the only figure I can think of from Egypt’s past with that sort of clout was Nasser. If you see his name being brought up by Egyptians then there may be hope.

  42. 42.

    Suffern ACE is a Basset Hound

    @Mike in NC: I guess they are thinking that if they had sent in the marines to crush the Arab Spring there would have been no need for risky elections and the Morsi experiment. Or Obama said something diplomatic like “I hope it works out” after Morsi was elected. “Why did we let him take power?” Is the cry.

    Whatever. Our press corps only wishes that the US would have as much power as it thinks that it ought to have. Which is all the power in the world. (But not enough power to get the poors decent medical care).

  43. 43.

    Schlemizel

    I was spending time on reddit but the stupid is strong over there. There are many posts calling for a coup or wondering what it will take for the American people to overthrow the government. I got blasted for suggesting that once you unleash the beast there is no way you control the outcome. I asked them to name one revolution besides the American one that was not followed by violence, turmoil and death. The answer I got was “France and Ireland” – the stupid is VERY strong!

    The Paulites there actually think the US Military will side with them & create a Gault’s Gulch utopia!

  45. 45.

    MeDrewNotYou

    @Schlemizel:

    The answer I got was “France and Ireland” – the stupid is VERY strong!

    Wait wha? How can you know the French Revolution was a thing that happened and not know about the violence? The only thing most people know about is the freakin’ guillotine!

  46. 46.

    Anne Laurie

    @JWL:

    “It’s their fucking country”.*

    Not ours.

    Could not agree more.

    Problem is, Egypt is second only behind Israel as a recipient of US foreign aid. So a lot of people who should know better — except they’re paid not to — think this entitles “us” to a vote in their internal affairs.

    Is there a word for the political equuivalent of greenmail?

  47. 47.

    Southern Beale

    OT but in the same vein, I found the right-wing’s happy dance over Obama’s delaying the business side of Obamacare one year insufferable.

    Then again, they so rarely get a chance to be “we told you so!” Even if they are wrong on this one.

  48. 48.

    srv

    I predict if someone like El Baradei takes over, the loans they’ll want from the IMF will result in all sorts of austerity in Egypt and further economically destabilize them. The Army won’t give up their industries and they’ll be stuck.

    Qatar & KSM will start sending some of their Syrian jihadis to Egypt and we’ll see car bombings and attacks on tourists. Maybe some of the weapons/trainees we’re providing through Turkey and Jordan will show up in the attacks. And of course, President McCain will run with that ball on every news show. Congressional hearings on Obama’s blowback… Fun Times Ahead.

    In the meantime, Libya’s troubles don’t get much news.

  50. 50.

    ruemara

    @Robert Sneddon: Part of the issue is that the opposition did not participate in the elections. So… it may have been democratically done, but it was less of the population. Kinda like us.

    I don’t know. There have been so many good things that have happened in Egypt, the way religion was put to the side so they could effectively protest together. The men that created and protected a safe space so women could protest without being sexually assaulted and raped. The fact that the military took over, then turned over power to the judiciary and that elections are being scheduled. But so much bad. It’s not my country, it’s not my culture, but they’re just humans trying to create a future for themselves. I wish them well and I have my fingers crossed.

  52. 52.

    Hawes

    @sparrow: And the study is specifically confined to post-Cold War coups. That goes for Nigeria as well. After Abacha’s coup (in ’93 I think), the next government to come along led to the closest that country has come to democracy.

    It’s far too soon to predict anything about the outcome in Egypt. It could end as a Turkish coup, reinstating some form of electoral government. I would actually say that’s the most likely outcome. And I would say that precisely BECAUSE the US is involved.

    Or it could end up in civil war, but it won’t end up as another Mubarak. Again, because the US won’t let it.

  54. 54.

    KS in MA

    @Linda Featheringill: Yes. I keep thinking of the various convulsions we went through, too, on the way to democracy– including scrapping one constitution (the Articles) that didn’t work, in favor of a better one. We were lucky to go through our learning curve in relative isolation from foreign interference (not to mention TV news). It seems like a really good sign that the army has called for new elections. The people in Tahrir Square don’t see it as a coup– a good sign too, I hope.

  55. 55.

    Jay in Oregon

    I was listening to some right-wing fuckwit on the drive home (no one I recognized; Andy something) who was saying that it wasn’t a military coup because the Egyptian Army didn’t come in through the skylight on parasails.

    Also, the military was just getting rid of corrupt politicians as a form of “reset” so that democracy could flourish. And Obama was sitting on the sidelines because he sucks.

    So, there’s that. (I get the feeling he was fantasizing about our army doing the same thing.)

  56. 56.

    Tripod

    This will end a hell of a lot better if you’re an Egyptian that is female, gay, Christian, etc….

    Vox populi, vox humbug.

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