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Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. do not touch it.”

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

75% of people clapping liked the show!

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Most of you should go to bed and try to be better Jackals in the morning.

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

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You are here: Home / Archives for 2014

Archives for 2014

Keeping pace

by David Anderson|  November 18, 20148:04 am| 14 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Open Threads

Just a couple of reminders on what to expect from the data during the 2015 Exchange open enrollment period as I have the kids home for a snow delay so I don’t think that I can think this morning.

1)  Deadlines matter.

We saw this in 2014, we saw this in Massachusetts in 2007, we see this every year with Medicare open enrollment but deadlines matter.  Most people will procrastinate until the end and they are forced to make a decision or send a check in.  Last year we saw roughly half of the enrollment activity happen in the last six weeks.

2) Different deadlines are in play

There are three sets of deadlines; two major and one minor.  The first major deadline is December 15th plan selection.  This deadline will allow people to start their new policy on January 1, 2015.  That will provide either continuous coverage from previous policies or start their new coverage as soon as possible.  The other major deadline is February 15th.  This will start coverage for March 1, 2015, and it is the last day that regular coverage can be bought for the year unless there is a special qualifying event.  The minor deadline is January 15th as that will allow people to start coverage on February 1st.

3) Two different populations are in play.

2015 is very different than 2014 in that last year everything was brand new to everyone.  This year, there are 7 million people who are looking to renew their coverage.  I think we should see the vast majority of these people renew by December 15 as they want to keep their coverage.  Losing coverage for a month would be a break from their new routine.  The other population is far more similar to 2014’s general Exchange population in that they are switching from no coverage to coverage.  Procrastination is more likely here, so I anticipate more people signing up after the New Year than before the New Year.

4)  Self identified sick get covered earlier

People procrastinate unless they have a damn good reason not to.  That is, to me, a reasonable assumption about life.  The early renewers and the early new enrollees are statistically different than the entire population of renewers and new enrollees in that they are far more likely to be sick with chronic conditions.  Insurance lets them knock a problem off their to do list.  Relatively healthy people will delay.  The take-away is that we can not make good population health guesses based on November enrollment activity.

5) Four steps of web activity

a) See the exchange

b) Log into the Exchange and look around

c) Put a health plan in the shopping cart and check-out.

d)  Pay the premium

Right now we can track C as payment for January 1st coverage is not due until the week of Christmas.  March 1st coverage won’t see payment due until February 21st.  There is a big lag between choosing a plan and the last day possible to pay for that plan.  There will be some drop-off.  Charles Gaba used a 12% drop rate for his purposes.

 

Keeping pacePost + Comments (14)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  November 18, 20146:19 am| 102 Comments

This post is in: Election 2014, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

My thanks to commentor dww44 for the clip. Partial transcript, from the original blog post, “GOPlifer” Chris Ladd in the Houston Chronicle:

Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.

What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster…

… We’re about to get two years of intense, horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate scandal that reveals Obama’s real plans for America then you’re an idiot…

Y’all should watch O’Donnell’s clip, or else read Ladd’s whole post, because the numbers laid out there are heartwarming.

Apart from the usual political skirmishing, what’s on the agenda for the day?

Tuesday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (102)

Late Night Scary Open Thread: Are We Running Out of Chocolate?

by Anne Laurie|  November 18, 201412:10 am| 64 Comments

This post is in: Food, Open Threads, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Decline and Fall

From the Washington Post:

… Chocolate deficits, whereby farmers produce less cocoa than the world eats, are becoming the norm. Already, we are in the midst of what could be the longest streak of consecutive chocolate deficits in more than 50 years. It also looks like deficits aren’t just carrying over from year-to-year—the industry expects them to grow. Last year, the world ate roughly 70,000 metric tons more cocoa than it produced. By 2020, the two chocolate-makers warn that that number could swell to 1 million metric tons, a more than 14-fold increase; by 2030, they think the deficit could reach 2 million metric tons.

The problem is, for one, a supply issue. Dry weather in West Africa (specifically in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, where more than 70 percent of the world’s cocoa is produced) has greatly decreased production in the region. A nasty fungal disease known as frosty pod hasn’t helped either. The International Cocoa Organization estimates it has wiped out between 30 percent and 40 percent of global coca production. Because of all this, cocoa farming has proven a particularly tough business, and many farmers have shifted to more profitable crops, like corn, as a result.

Then there’s the world’s insatiable appetite for chocolate. China’s growing love for the stuff is of particular concern. The Chinese are buying more and more chocolate each year. Still, they only consume per capita about 5 percent of what the average Western European eats. There’s also the rising popularity of dark chocolate, which contains a good deal more cocoa by volume than traditional chocolate bars (the average chocolate bar contains about 10 percent, while dark chocolate often contains upwards of 70 percent)…

The obvious answer would be to pay those cocoa farmers more for their pods, but the corporate response is to work on breeding “more efficient” (less tasty) cocoa trees.

This alarming news arrives courtesy of two of the largest global producers, Barry Callebaut and Mars, Inc.…

Late Night Scary Open Thread: Are We Running Out of Chocolate?Post + Comments (64)

Long Read: “The Unblinking Stare”

by Anne Laurie|  November 17, 20148:50 pm| 65 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Foreign Affairs, War on Terror aka GSAVE®

Steve Coll, in the New Yorker, on “the drone war in Pakistan“:

At the Pearl Continental Hotel, in Peshawar, a concrete tower enveloped by flowering gardens, the management has adopted security precautions that have become common in Pakistan’s upscale hospitality industry: razor wire, vehicle barricades, and police crouching in bunkers, fingering machine guns. In June, on a hot weekday morning, Noor Behram arrived at the gate carrying a white plastic shopping bag full of photographs. He had a four-inch black beard and wore a blue shalwar kameez and a flat Chitrali hat. He met me in the lobby. We sat down, and Behram spilled his photos onto a table. Some of the prints were curled and faded. For the past seven years, he said, he has driven around North Waziristan on a small red Honda motorcycle, visiting the sites of American drone missile strikes as soon after an attack as possible.

Behram is a journalist from North Waziristan, in northwestern Pakistan, and also works as a private investigator. He has been documenting the drone attacks for the Foundation for Fundamental Rights, a Pakistani nonprofit that is seeking redress for civilian casualties. In the beginning, he said, he had no training and only a cheap camera. I picked up a photo that showed Behram outdoors, in a mountainous area, holding up a shredded piece of women’s underwear. He said it was taken during his first investigation, in June, 2007, after an aerial attack on a training camp. American and Pakistani newspapers reported at the time that drone missiles had killed Al Qaeda-linked militants. There were women nearby as well. Although he was unable to photograph the victims’ bodies, he said, “I found charred, torn women’s clothing—that was the evidence.”

Since then, he went on, he has photographed about a hundred other sites in North Waziristan, creating a partial record of the dead, the wounded, and their detritus. Many of the faces before us were young. Behram said he learned from conversations with editors and other journalists that if a drone missile killed an innocent adult male civilian, such as a vegetable vender or a fruit seller, the victim’s long hair and beard would be enough to stereotype him as a militant. So he decided to focus on children…

Last year, in a speech at the National Defense University, President Obama acknowledged that American drones had killed civilians. He called these incidents “heartbreaking tragedies,” which would haunt him and those in his chain of command for “as long as we live.” But he went on to defend drones as the most discriminating aerial bombers available in modern warfare—preferable to piloted aircraft or cruise missiles. Jets and missiles cannot linger to identify and avoid noncombatants before striking, and, the President said, they are likely to cause “more civilian casualties and more local outrage.”…

Obama’s advocacy of drones has widespread support in Washington’s foreign-policy and defense establishments. As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton wholeheartedly backed the drone campaigns in Pakistan and Yemen. Republican hawks like John McCain and Lindsey Graham, who otherwise criticize the President as effete and indecisive, are also enthusiastic. But do drones actually represent a humanitarian advance in air combat? Or do they create a false impression of exactitude? And do they really serve the best interests of the United States?…
***********
For decades, I.S.I. officers have harbored deep ambivalence about their putative allies at the C.I.A. (According to Pew Research Center opinion polls, a majority of Pakistanis believe that the United States is an enemy of their country.) Beginning in 2009, the Obama Administration, led by the special representative Richard Holbrooke, sought to lessen the mistrust by launching a “strategic dialogue” with Pakistan’s military and intelligence leaders, as well as with Pakistan’s weak elected civilian politicians. By early 2011, however, that effort had failed. In late January of that year, on a street in Lahore, Raymond Davis, a C.I.A. contractor, shot and killed two men who he believed were trying to kill him, touching off a furor. I.S.I. leaders felt that the C.I.A.’s unilateral operations inside Pakistan had got out of control. Now, when civilians died in drone strikes, I.S.I. helped to whip up public protests.

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Long Read: “The Unblinking Stare”Post + Comments (65)

Monday Evening Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  November 17, 20147:10 pm| 207 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

IMG_3019.JPG

Rainy night here. What’s up in your neck of the woods?

Monday Evening Open ThreadPost + Comments (207)

Inciting a Riot

by John Cole|  November 17, 20144:22 pm| 175 Comments

This post is in: Post-racial America, Democratic Stupidity, Sociopaths

Governor Jay Nixon has declared a state of emergency in Missouri.

Before anything has happened.

Missouri is in a state of emergency because of… “IF” and “MAYBE” and “IT’S POSSIBLE”:

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon declared a state of emergency Monday ahead of an expected grand jury decision in the case of Michael Brown.

In his executive order, Nixon cited the “possibility of expanded unrest.” He said that people have the right to protest peacefully but that citizens and businesses must be protected from violence and damage.

St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay said the plan will bring National Guard troops to the city, but he said their role is designed to be secondary to local law enforcement.

Brown, a black teen, was fatally shot by Darren Wilson, a white police officer, on August 9. The grand jury is weighing whether to indict Wilson.
Photos: Emotions run high in Ferguson Photos: Emotions run high in Ferguson

“In the days immediately following Michael Brown’s death, peaceful protests were marred by senseless acts of violence and destruction,” the governor said last week.

“That ugliness was not representative of Missouri, and it cannot be repeated,” said Nixon.

The state of emergency will expire in 30 days unless extended by another order.

Slay said he did not immediately know how many National Guard troops would be deployed to his city, which is near Ferguson, or when they would be deployed.

Missouri is de facto and de jure a police state, and the right to murder black teens without consequences will not be denied.

I don’t give a shit if the alternative is worse, there is no defense for that piece of shit Jay Nixon.

Inciting a RiotPost + Comments (175)

There’s Something About Bernie

by John Cole|  November 17, 201412:41 pm| 188 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016

I like this guy:

There’s Something About BerniePost + Comments (188)

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