Watching the pre-smackdown buildup on CNN. A CNN-bot was out there doing wo/man-on-the-street interviews to find out what we-the-pipple want to ask the candidates. If the slack-jawed ninnies the reporter buttonholed are any indication, we-the-pipple could use a good swift kick in the ass.
“I’d ask Clinton what she’s hiding in those emails,” one woman sniffed. “I heard she hid them and I’d ask her why.” Or something about that stupid.
The truth is out there, New Hampshire ninny. Just Google it and pick which version you prefer. You could even choose the candidate’s 5,000 statements on that very issue to get an inkling of what she’d say to you personally, you extra-special snowflake.
I wouldn’t blame a candidate who got such a dumb question for swinging his or her microphone on its cord like a mace and smacking that potential voter in the face.
And…we’re off!
PS: See our lovely Chicagoans here! (Sorry to step on you, Anne Laurie!)
SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel
Bernie sez: “You know what the average contribution is? $27.”
There’s that number again.
khead
Bella embraces both candidates with open paws.
Baud
I’ll keep that in mind.
jl
How will Bernie fend off the Tapper hack attack?
“Now can you NOT under perform?”
Edit: Sanders has to be able to answer that first tax question.
Frankensteinbeck
Bettin’ Bernie and Hillary both will be class acts, just like they have been. Let me know whether I’m right.
Just Some Fuckhead
Serious question as a Clinton supporter. Why can’t she make the “It’s the economy again, stupid” argument? I understand she’s running for Obama’s third term but who on the left is going to take umbrage with her standing up for the people who haven’t been helped by the Obama recovery, say millennials? Who is going to withhold their vote because she stood up for the least of these?
It seems like it would be so easy to take the wind out of the Sanders sails.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Just Some Fuckhead: she could segue into the jobs/infrastructure Obama’s been trying to get, but I guess infrastructure makes people’s eyes glaze over
Just Some Fuckhead
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Wait wait wait, don’t do your usual dismissive bullshit. The Clintons already ran and won on the economy before. The economy is a thousand times worse now. It’s not like some mystery that needs to be solved or dismissed as “infrastructure”.
Frankensteinbeck
@Just Some Fuckhead:
She’s never going to win that contest with Bernie. Her policies to fix it might be better, but there’s no beating the emotional appeal of ‘Get the bankers, arrr!’ Maybe she would rather talk about issues where she’s strong and he’s weak, like discrimination and foreign policy. That’s just a guess, honestly.
JPL
Did ISIS cause the marathon bombing? I’m confused.
Gravenstone
Since the tags for this post are entirely appropriate, I just waded into the middle of a Facebook brouhaha on a group from around my old home town. Some poor parent is simply appalled, appalled that the school circulated an anonymous questionnaire to their precious little snowflake, asking about the kid’s physical and mental health. Since it also asks about whether there are firearms in the home, assorted inbreds are jumping on the “erhmagerd, they’re coming fer mah gunz!!” bandwagon. Including one clown who actually approvingly linked to Info fucking Wars. /facepalm And the questions about sexual activity have created an such an immense cloud of butthurt, it could probably be seen from space.
I’m afraid I probably made things even worse when I tracked the thing back to its source, a 25 year old CDC initiative . Now the mouth breathers are probably going to start blaming Clinton.
schrodinger's cat
@khead: Its a trap, did you see her claws?
schrodinger's cat
Is Bernie going to nationalize the banks?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Just Some Fuckhead: that wasn’t dismissive bullshit. Its a way of talking about continuing Obamas work, building on it, keeping up the fight,
but recent history suggests infrastructure is a tough sell to the general public, vprecisely because it’s not, as @Frankensteinbeck: suggests, exciting and emotional and “revolutionary” (that was dismissive, sincerely so)
Frankensteinbeck
@Gravenstone:
I suspect most of America, not just conservatives, think that the longer they can keep their children from knowing sex exists, the better. The societal subtext that puberty occurs suddenly (and still too soon) at eighteen is amazing.
PhoenixRising
@JPL: kinda. The Boston marathon was bombed by Americans who believed that an Islamic state would be better than their adoptive country. It’s not unrelated.
PhoenixRising
Wow. Bernie just gave a really bad answer to a person who happened to be black and ask him about police violence. I’m starting to think this guy is inexperienced talking to black folks. Which is a damn shame because he’s so good on the issues…
JPL
@PhoenixRising: That makes sense and he did speak about improving local police, but I think he should have addressed all home grown terrorists.
Sloegin
News orgs always the edit the MOTS segments to only run the yokels. They hate interviewing informed people who show them up.
schrodinger's cat
@efgoldman: Tell me about it. It hasn’t even snowed all that much and we have car sized potholes everywhere.
TaMara (BHF)
So Jeb! said Hillary was under criminal investigation? How did I miss that? Luckily I have enough rightwing relatives that wanted to let me know she’s unfit to be president.
Don’t have cable so sorry I’m missing the adults discussing real issues. Have to rely on the BJ snappy commentary.
Baud
@schrodinger’s cat: I blame Obama.
JPL
@schrodinger’s cat: Tax increases to fix those problems would probably be less than the cost of a new tire and rim.
Baud
@TaMara (BHF): Maybe he gets his news from the New York Times.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
Good question about how BS is going to accomplish his goals with the House and Senate not changing much.
His answer is the New GI bill. More amendments in the House than any one else.
“But here’s the unpleasant truth: ” Wall Street, Drug Companies, etc., corrupt campaign finance system, …
“Change comes from the bottom up….” “We need a movement like that to get real change in this country.”
I wish he had a better answer to that. It’s naive to think that the obstruction that he would see against his plans would be any less than Obama saw. If the PPACA was tyranny and death panels, Medicare for All and a $15/hr minimum wage would be the 7th circle of Hell.
I don’t think people fired up by Bernie are willing to wait 2-3 generations for The Movement to have a critical mass to get things through Congress…
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
TaMara (BHF)
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Until big chunks of the bridge they’re driving over fall off.
eemom
Oh come on. I mean I know we live in an electorate of morons, but it only takes two or three sentences to explain wtf INFRASTRUCTURE means, using examples like efgoldman did above. And that fixing it IS something that would actually create jobs.
JPL
Instead of substantial questions, now we are moving on to whether or not Hillary is a progressive. just fk
Iowa Old Lady
@TaMara (BHF): I just made the mistake of looking at comments on the GOS liveblog of the town hall. Jeb would fit right in.
Doug R
It’s MORE than the economy. It’s impossible to keep up economically when you’re redlined or shuffled into high interest loans even though you qualify for PRIME. Or you get thrown in jail for not being able to pay your parking tickets and compounding late fines. Or get shot and killed after calling 911. Or choked to death during a misdemeanor arrest. The economy is an integral part of it, but there’s plenty of other crap around it to deal with as well.
Baud
@JPL: There was a twitter war about that today apparently.
Schlemazel
@JPL:
But why should I have to pay for HIS tire and rim? We have the same problem here in spades. In the past snow plows came out when it started snowing & kept at it till all roads were clear. But that is expensive so for the last 10-15 years they don’t start plowing until the snow stops & no longer plow curb to curb. As a result commutes are much worse when it snows & that costs people money, there are many more accidents & they cost people involved time and money. Of course all those accidents means everyone in MN is paying higher car insurance premiums. But at least we have lower taxes so we save a few pennies of the dollars now spent.
redshirt
Has Bernie proposed tumbrels yet?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@eemom: I’d like nothing better to be proved wrong
JPL
@Schlemazel: The libertarian way.
Baud
@eemom: Obama tried it years ago. No one cared.
Schlemazel
@TaMara (BHF):
google “I 35 bridge collapse” if you want an example of what intentional neglect to save a few bucks really costs.
Schlemazel
@JPL:
exactly! Somehow it is better if it costs me more money as long as I don’t share any part of the cost of anything that benefits anyone else.
JPL
@efgoldman: Ask a republican today and they will blame Obama.
Baud
I take it the town hall is fairly dull. I’m not watching.
Schlemazel
@efgoldman:
Nope! He got re-elected after that. MN has it’s share of stupid assholes. It didn’t used to be this bad. Up until the 90’s the majority understood we are all in this together and we all do better when we all do better.
Gravenstone
@JPL: Not to mention the suspension components that end up having to be adjusted or replaced. But no no, we can’t be slightly inconvenienced now when we can be majorly inconvenienced at some unspecified point in the future.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@Schlemazel: The I-35 bridge collapse didn’t have anything to do with neglect. It had to do with an engineer making a slide rule error back when the thing was built. The specs showed it with a load limit ten times the actual value. The only real surprise is that it took so long before someone parked repair trucks on it that were way to heavy for the structure.
Betty Cracker
Bernie doesn’t know the model of his car. There goes the NASCAR vote!
Baud
@Betty Cracker: That’s like McCain not knowing how many houses he owns. The Village will eat that up if he’s the nominee.
Payback!
Iowa Old Lady
When I taught at General Motors Institute, a student asked what kind of car I drove and for the life of me I couldn’t remember. I thought he was going to faint.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: No. Two Chechen immigrants/asylum seekers did. The elder brother appears to have been self radicalized, including traveling abroad a bit to meet some folks. He dragged the little brother along with him. There is a hard core of Chechen nationalists that have been affiliated – originally through logistics and training – with al Qaeda. In fact if you remember the clips from the AQ training camps in Afghanistan, that training was all for Chechens and other Muslims fighting irregular wars against the states they were trying to separate from. Or in the case of the Chechens overthrow Putin’s Chechen quisling. About 2,000 of these Chechen fighters went to Syria last Spring and pledged allegiance to al Baghdadi. They are the shock troops of IS. They are hardened, irregular fighters. And they are the group of IS fighters that I worry about. The only group of IS affiliated groups that worries me is Boko Haram. The Chechens and the Boko guys are the hardest of the hardest.
PhoenixRising
@Betty Cracker: there goes his entire value proposition. Correct answer: I drive a Chevy —– built by union workers in —– Ohio.
That was a gimme. He says he’s bringing back working white voters to the blue column but doesn’t know what Chevy he drives? Come on.
amk
Did
ebola !!!zika !!! is gonna kill us all !!!! come up yet?the Conster, la Citoyenne
Tweeter Propane Jane breaks all the race and class intersectionality issues down for you. It’s a brilliant analysis.
You’re welcome.
Cacti
@Doug R:
This.
It’s not oligarchs, or millionayuhs and billionayuhs killing minorities at the street level.
It’s high school educated, middle class white cops.
Schlemazel
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym:
Sorry but no. Engineers were aware of the problems & wanted to replace the bridge but there was no money so they wanted to fix the bridge but there was no money so they put it off a few more years. So it was neglect.
Betty Cracker
@amk: Not yet. But GOP Governor Rick Scott is laying the groundwork: He declared a zika emergency today.
Adam L Silverman
@Gravenstone: Its a hallmark, almost an articulated statement of faith, that any CDC, government funded, or even independent academic research into firearms – whether as a public health issue or not – is biased and suspect. Unless its done by John Lott, it is simply unreliable and unacceptable. Lott’s research, however (of course?), was debunked by the same professor at Northwestern University that debunked the research of the former Emory historian that was critical of citizen use of firearms having a positive effect on reducing crime. Lott’s work has also been debunked by several other econometricists who determined that they couldn’t replicate his results given his data. Lott’s response was essentially the same as the former Emory historian: it was lost/destroyed due to structural damage to his office/him having to move offices. The difference, of course, is that Lott now has a multi-million dollar endowed research center and the former Emory historian tends bar in New Orleans.
satby
@Schlemazel: I know, and it makes me crazy. Here in Michigassippi they’ve started removing the paved roads they can’t (won’t budget to) maintain anymore and letting them go back to being dirt roads. Those aren’t hard on cars, no siree.
gene108
@Betty Cracker:
Yeah, I found that weird.
Adam L Silverman
@PhoenixRising: Its only tangentially related. Please see my response here: @Adam L Silverman:
Baud
@satby: Civilization is expensive.
different-church-lady
I’ll be on the video crew for a democratic focus group in NH tomorrow.
I expect a great many stupid things will be heard in my headphones.
Adam L Silverman
@eemom: They built that.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
Hugh Hewitt called Obama’s speech at the mosque today, “superb”. Unironically. I think we’re at Peak Wingnut.
Baud
@different-church-lady: How cool is that.
Cacti
@gene108:
I’m not sure if it will be used more as an example of “out of touch”, or if it will be a knock on his age “hurr, hurr, I wonder if grandpa remembers where he parked it.”
Bad time for a brain fart. It happens.
Gravenstone
@satby: I was stunned to encounter gravel roads not that far off the main way, in Wayne county. And this was 25 years ago. I can only imagine it’s gotten far worse in recent years.
Betty Cracker
Great question from the English teacher on the Supreme Court!
jl
@Adam L Silverman:
“econometricists”
econometricians? Those guys?
The Baud! 2016! campaign, however, uses econometricists.
Baud
@Betty Cracker: What was it for us non watchers?
schrodinger's cat
@Betty Cracker: He drives a car, I am disappointed. I thought real socialists rode bikes (Jeremy Corbyn) or better still walked everywhere.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@satby:
Red states would rather be third world, than raise money if it has to be shared with “those people”. Try selling socialism to those people, Bernie.
jl
As Sanders mega-doner, Berniebot and Sanders Zombie, I have to say I think HRC is coming off very well in this forum. She has seemed shouty in some clips I’ve heard, but she is vary personable tonight.
Baud
@jl: And we stay at Econo Lodges.
amk
@Betty Cracker:
Great. More STOP THE IMMIGRANTS fodder.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: I can’t do the equations and I can’t spell the term for the people that can. Happy now?//
schrodinger's cat
@Adam L Silverman: What equations? Maxwell’s equations or Einstein’s?
Joel
@amk: The fact that Zika is mosquito-borne, has few (if any) outward symptoms, and can be sexually transmitted is a pretty big problem. When a country (El Salvador) is recommending that women not get pregnant for two years, that’s a real concern, approaching lost generation levels.
Fortunately zika has a relatively short lifespan, unlike AIDS or malaria.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Do you have litmus tests for SCJ nominees? Answer: many!
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks.
I’m still following the takeover of public land in Oregon. John Sepulvado of OPB is good but I also follow Karin Hildebrand twitter feed. She has linked to several good articles. The reason I was disappointed with Sander’s answer is because we need to be vigilant of home grown terrorists, such as the so called patriots who want to overthrow the government.
I hope that you post something about the standoff again.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodinger’s cat: I’ve never even tried Maxwell’s. I understand the theory behind Einstein’s, but I make silly errors with math that I can’t catch.
Bill Murray
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Erskine Bowles, Leon Panetta, Robert Strauss, Pete Petersen, Kent Conrad, Chuck Robb, Charles Stenholm
Baud
@Betty Cracker: thanks!
dmsilev
@jl: I feel sure that the Baud campaign will have nothing to do with any of that metric stuff and will instead rely on econoimperialists.
JPL
@srv: Get back to us when zika Virus is killing our children.
satby
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: I just followed her, that is great! Thanks.
PhoenixRising
@Adam L Silverman: if I’d known you were here I’d have let you take that one with actual facts and knowledge and stuff. Thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: Very true. I’m not worried about them here. I’m worried about their ability to transnationally destabilize not just Nigeria, but also Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. They have the intention, and they may well have the capability, to destabilize all of West Africa. This would be bad.
Just Some Fuckhead
@srv: I’m against stopping the children with DDT.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: They both lived in the Hyde Park area near the University of Chicago and taught at the University of Chicago at the time. So its possible.
Adam L Silverman
@PhoenixRising: Got in late. Got back from the gym and the dojo, via the grocery store, around 9:15, then had to eat something before I passed out. Caught the tail end of Senator Sander’s part of the event and have been catching up here as quickly as my little fingers allow.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: I’m pretty sure you’re being facetious.
Gravenstone
@JPL: I’d rather he get back to us after guzzling a gallon of DDT. I’d pay to watch that.
different-church-lady
@Baud: I dunno. Never done one before. I do get the feeling I’m going to be hearing a great deal of conventional “wisdom” being regurgitated.
Cacti
@srv:
Why do you want to use DDT on children?
Baud
@different-church-lady: Do report back.
scav
@Just Some Fuckhead: Only the wealthy, those that can personally afford to spray their children should be allowed to do so. To suggest otherwise, to protect even anchor babies, is socialism and Obamacare.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@satby:
As I’m watching Hillary, taking to heart what Propane Jane said about following PBO’s blueprint to win, she should be explaining what she’s learned from Obama, and how she’s thankful for him. IOW, she should hug him, metaphorically. I know it would make me feel better, and make a huge difference to his coalition which she will clearly need.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: Depends. The French have so far stayed out of the ongoing crisis in Nigeria. They were effective in Mali, and I suspect they’d be more effective in Nigeria, as the Nigerian military is more effective than the Malian military. It would depend on whether there would requests of the French government by one or more of the states under threat/attack. And it would depend on the size of the response. Anything that requires a large response is going to be beyond France’s capabilities. As in bodies and the ability to do lift – not the quality of their personnel. More likely it would fall to Commander US Army Africa as the Land Force Component Commander. His problem (full disclosure: I’ve done work for him and think highly of him as a theater strategic commander) is that he’s got a theater (Africa) and no theater Army. So Forces Command (FORSCOM) would have to quickly allocate resources to him.
Betty Cracker
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: OMFG.
gene108
Hillary seems deep and thoughtful
Suzanne
I really enjoy HRC when she speaks in these more candid settings. I thought she did a great job with that humility/ego question.
bin Lurkin'
@srv:
All of them?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Betty Cracker:
???
JPL
@Suzanne: She did.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: i ask also, too ????
jl
@Baud:
” And we stay at Econo Lodges. ”
Note to self: stay away from Econo Lodges, very sketchy clientele. Will have to check for drunks passed out in the closets and bed bugs.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: Okay, then. Econometrics is a very elegant, mathematically based statistical methodology. It was first developed in Economics, hence the name, but is widely used in political science too. The mathematics and methodology were originally developed for testing assumptions derived from rational choice and utility maximizations empirical economics theories. These concepts didn’t start with Economics, they are actually among the oldest of Criminological theories, but with the exception of an adaptation in Routine Activity Theory, they were discarded by criminology. The methodology and mathematical models, however, are used by some Criminologists.
One of the major critiques of Econometrics has always been that its assumptions were never realistic. They assumed things that were never possible: such as perfect knowledge of the market or perfect knowledge of crimes and the penalties that went with them. No one has either of these in reality. More recent criticism has begun to emerge of the methodology and mathematics: that research employing them, regardless of discipline or empirical theory, can not be replicated successfully. And that this is a critical flaw to them. Apparently a large number of econometric studies, published in refereed publications, were attempted for replication and they simply couldn’t be. So now a debate has begun as to what this means and whether its a flaw of the methodology and mathematics or of the Econometricians themselves.
Redshift
Conservatives don’t understand the science of pesticides any more than any other science, but they have a DDT fairy tale they’re certain applies to every situation.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
-Propane Jane
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: That’ll clear it up for him.
Jim Parente
@different-church-lady: As a former NYC TV/Audio person, I can already hear the kind of commentary that will be going on on the P.L.s
PhoenixRising
@Suzanne: you know, I’ve met her twice and she’s really that person. Not the monster the VRWC make her out to be. Bright, warm, engaged.
Calouste
@Adam L Silverman: Also, Nigeria is a former British colony, not a former French one. It’s unlikely that the French would intervene their like they would (and have done) in their own former colonies.
Just Some Fuckhead
Hillary is on my teevee stumbling through a complicated indictment of Bernie on the gun control issue. I just don’t see how people with no job, crushing debt and no prospects in our new economy are going to respond to a gun control issue that no one seriously thinks a socialist is weak on.
And now I’ve got Terry McAwful telling me why America can’t afford to give its kids a college degree, today’s equivalent of a college degree.
Jesus Fucking Christ, the boomers can’t die quick enough.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: You want to give it a shot? Be my guest.
dmsilev
@srv:
Why? Show your work. Also, learn the difference between a possessive and a plural.
Adam L Silverman
@Calouste: Correct. And I’m not sure, other than sending in the SAS, that the Brits could intervene. They are down to one Brigade and that’s just not enough to make a dent.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Just Some Fuckhead: high school diploma even. 5 years and tens of thousands of dollars on site upgrades, we still can’t reliably edit comments.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: Since Goldman’s a music major, I would need to explain it in song, which FYWP won’t let me do.
Suzanne
@PhoenixRising: Honestly, she seems really likeable when she gets really passionate. She gets better when she’s fired up and ready to go.
Betty Cracker
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: HRC has embraced PBO’s policies as closely as any would-be successor ever has, IMO. I’m amazed that you’re yearning for even more explicit expressions of undying fealty.
Adam L Silverman
Secretary Clinton should have answered the “did you have to get paid $675,000 for speaking to Goldman Sachs” question with: “Momma’s got to get paid!” I’d have paid good money to have seen that.
oklahomo
@Adam L Silverman: OT I know, but weren’t some of the 9/11 cell originally trying to go fight in with the Chechens?
Nate Dawg
Watching the debate. HRC has gotten much better than in 2008.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Betty Cracker:
She did during the debate, but the “undying fealty” comment is bullshit. It’s not fealty, it’s courtesy, it’s reassuring, and it’s good politics.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: That’s exactly what she should have said. The ads would write themselves. I thought her answer was weak, though.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: The math is elegant and powerful, as is the methodology. Its too often, especially in regards to Economics, tethered to theories that we learned very clearly in 2008, don’t actually work. The Chicago School of Economics and Freshwater Economics in general have had their empirical validity completely wiped away by actual, empirical reality. Their theoretical models and assumptions, regardless of the math, couldn’t explain what happened in 2008 and has been unable to explain anything since.
The replication issue is something I first saw brought up last year and its an especially important issue. If studies that use the methodology and mathematics cannot be replicated, then the methods and math are of absolutely no scientific utility and significant bodies of work and areas of research will need to be jettisoned.
schrodinger's cat
@Adam L Silverman: They are the most beautiful set of equations, entire electromagnetic theory encapsulated in just 4 equations.
Cacti
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Que?
gene108
Hillary really needs to corner some 20 somethings and figure out what the hell it is she’s missing in connecting with them.
There’s a disconnect and she’s not able to bridge it.
Betty Cracker
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Did you miss the part earlier when she praised all the progress PBO and the Democrats have made over the past seven years and promised to protect and expand on it? That happened.
redshirt
@gene108: As we’ve all learned, 20 somethings are the most important voting demographic.
Cacti
@gene108:
The lack of pie in the sky.
Adam L Silverman
@oklahomo: Off the top of my head, I think so. Please forgive me that I’m not going to look it up right now.
One of the biggest foreign policy mistakes of the Clinton Administration was deciding that Chechen national aspirations after the fall of the Soviet Union were not something that the US should support. You had an entire state and society of Muslims that were for all intents and purposes European. We had a chance to actually align our interests and our values/ideals and we didn’t. As a result you have a strong man, Muslim-Chechen quisling who reports to Putin running the place and a large group of separatist/nationalists that turned to al Qaeda for support because we wouldn’t/didn’t provide it. We took a group of Eastern Europeans who’s religion happened to be Islam into a group of radicalized and hardened extremist Muslim fighters.
Calouste
@Adam L Silverman: Economics has never really let reality come in the way of their theories. A friend of mine in university studied economics and said that one of the phrases he heard the most was ceteris paribus, “all else being equal”, which of course it never is.
sunhaws
@Betty Cracker:
I went to hear her speak several times before I caucused here in Iowa on Monday, and both times a centerpiece of her talk was the embracing of President Obama’s accomplishments and talking about how he doesn’t get the credit he deserves. She was loud and proud about him and his record.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: does the math demand it?
Just Some Fuckhead
@gene108: McAwful is explaining things to them right now.
scav
@Adam L Silverman: Beyond Homo economicus etc. I’d imagine they’re also increasingly butting their heads against the need to quantify and measure things in order to squish everything into their very pretty and elegant mathematical equations. Some of what doesn’t get dropped because of their model of humans gets omitted or simplified away because they can’t find a yardstick.
redshirt
@Adam L Silverman: I usually agree with everything you say, but not here. You think it wise for the USA to get so involved in a civil war in Russia in the early 90’s? I don’t see it.
Not that it’s turned out great, obviously, but we’re all still here, so good enough.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: I also thought that at the Lewinsky press conference, President Clinton should not have said “I did not have sex with that woman”. Instead he should have said “Yes, I got a hummer from a 24 year old in my office and the only reason the GOP leadership in the House is upset is that they didn’t!” But what do I know.
Cacti
@Just Some Fuckhead:
As a policy issue, where does “make college free” rank for voters over age 25?
MomSense
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Oh yes, Propane Jane is a truth teller.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodinger’s cat: I believe you.
Adam L Silverman
Trigger Warning: Don Lemmon is up!
Just Some Fuckhead
@Cacti: Piss off.
PhoenixRising
@Adam L Silverman: mama’s got to get paid indeed! I liked her answer: that was the amount they offered me, so…those days are gone now that I’m all about regulating the hell out of them.
beltane
@gene108: She speaks to an America that does not exist for them. The technological/economic changes of the past generation have created a group of winners and a much larger group of losers. Traditional liberalism doesn’t really address this situation adequately. This is a good part of the reason that center-left parties throughout the developed world have had something of a rough time of it lately.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@redshirt: I was a phlegmatic old fart in my twenties, I’m only just now aging into my personality, but I do think she’s gonna need all the votes she can get. Maybe the environment is an issue where she can talk to the yoots and be aspirational and talk about continuing the Obama legacy?
I’m spitballing here, cause I don’t understand why that, or the Supreme Court, or not taking health insurance away from people out of pure spite, isn’t already compelling
and I’ll just say it: Sanders is an asshole for including the Speaking Fees in that anti-Wall St commercial and his pose of indignant “who me?” innocence when asked if it was a negative ad against HRC was as disingenuous as anything I’ve ever seen.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Are the helicopters laughing?
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: It would be more accurate if he said, except for the House Leader and myself, the rest worked in silence.
Mnemosyne
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
As she points out repeatedly, racism enables greed. Most white people look the other way as long as it’s black and brown folks getting exploited.
Adam L Silverman
@redshirt: A lot of these are debatable. I’m not saying we should have gotten involved with a civil war, but we did exert a lot of influence on the Russians on behalf of a number of the other former Soviet states. Including Chechnya wouldn’t have been going out of our way. And remember just how weak Russia was at the time.
Adam L Silverman
@PhoenixRising: It was a good answer. I think she did fine. The ten minutes I saw of Senator Sanders I thought he did fine too.
redshirt
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: There’s two campaigns here: The Democratic nomination and then the general election. I suspect Clinton will take a different tack in the general.
I suspect the 20 somethings that actually vote (a shockingly small percentage of them) will come around when Clinton is facing off against Republican Monster X, whomever that happens to be.
Cacti
@Just Some Fuckhead:
You mad, bro?
chopper
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
yeah, stating that a necessary precondition to getting any of your platform passed is a massive political upheaval the likes of which we haven’t seen since the throes of the great depression is an admission that your platform is basically political fanfic. oh, is that all we need?
at least bernie admits that much.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: the current Mrs Gingrich was much older than 24 at the time. Henry Hyde’s mistress was in her 50s, given that Hyde was in his 80s, the math works out okay there. Also, ewwww!
redshirt
@Adam L Silverman: They were very weak, and we were actually propping them up. Chechnya is a far different situation then Ukraine or Georgia, etc. To get involved at that level strikes me as insane for a failing power with numerous amounts of nukes.
The other CiS nations were once nations or very independent regions. Chechnya has never been such. And other then financial or moral support, what are you referring to? Armed support?
Just Some Fuckhead
Here’s my boomer sister-in-law (and mad HRC supporter) when I asked her why she thought Clinton wasn’t making the “It’s STILL the economy, stupid” argument” for the folks left out of the Recovery, like the mills: “I really don’t know enough about economic issues to weigh in. All I know is I have a job that I’m happy with. Would I like to make more money? Of course I would however, do I think if the economy took an up swing, would I get a big piece of that? Doubtful. Will taxes go down? Doubtful. Will it start raining dollar bills?”
In other words, me me me me me.
A seriously lovely person, altogether. But, wow.
Joel
@Adam L Silverman: If Goldman Sachs wanted to line up 1/2 million for me to speak at one of their events, I’d do it. Hell, I’d do it for half-thousand. But not half-hundred; I’m too pure for that.
Calouste
@redshirt: It’s easy with hindsight I guess. But in the 90s there were 3 or 4 wars, civil or otherwise, going on in the Caucasus more or less at the same time. I don’t think anyone had an idea where that all was going and who were the good guys, if there were any.
Cacti
@Just Some Fuckhead:
In the future, will a college degree still be the equivalent of a college degree, or will it become something else?
redshirt
@Just Some Fuckhead: You’re morphing into srv.
Adam L Silverman
@redshirt: I’m a big fan of not picking fights with other nuclear powers. Things could get out of hand and make everyone late for dinner.
amk
hillary needs do this, bernie needs to do that.
jeez, the dem partisans are a whiny bunch.
Adam L Silverman
@Cacti: Its not the equivalent of a college degree now.
redshirt
@Calouste: Yeah, it was a cluster. Don’t forget the other cluster fuck we were involved in in the Balkans, which almost came to a direct confrontation with the Russians.
It’s folly to think we should have involved ourselves in the Caucuses in the 90’s. No way.
Doug R
@gene108: You’d think someone who cares about good jobs would know who made his car.
Suzanne
@Just Some Fuckhead: It floors me how many people I know who make decisions when there is plenty of data, and yet they only consider anecdata and themselves. WHYYYYY.
Joel
@amk: Forget it Jake, it’s the primaries.
Mike J
@Joel:
The hotel room I’d ask for in NY would cost more than that.
dr. bloor
@Cacti: I take it you don’t have any children.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Room? Why not a suite?
Just Some Fuckhead
@redshirt: Thank you for your concern. :)
redshirt
@Adam L Silverman: And supporting the Chechens wouldn’t be picking a fight with the Russians? I don’t see how we could have given them any overt support without completing trashing that 90’s relationship – which was very different then it is today.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mike J: view of the park, dinner in a fancy restaurant or two, and they pick up my bar tab? I’ll tell Jamie Dimon that he and his colleagues are the job creators of job-creating -jobs.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Suzanne: I gots mines.
redshirt
@Just Some Fuckhead: You and srv and your new Bernie pals should form some kind of bloc. New politics, right?
Adam L Silverman
@redshirt: I’m not disagreeing with you. I think there are things we could have done differently, short of picking a fight with the Russians. At the same time, as you’ve acknowledged, things didn’t work out so well as it is. As I said, this one is definitely debatable.
Prescott Cactus
@efgoldman:
I’m gonna need a bigger bumper.
Nate Dawg
You know, if she wanted the 20 something vote, all she would have to do is come out in favor of marijuana legalization. Her answer about “more research needed” is such complete bullshit and misses the point. The point is that it’s a social justice issue, a personal freedom issue, a small government issue, *and* lastly, a medical issue. Plus, it’s wildly popular. I don’t understand Democrats sometimes.
Adam L Silverman
@Prescott Cactus: I may resemble that remark.
beltane
@Omnes Omnibus: How about the penthouse of Trump Tower?
Doug R
@srv: She got the ball rolling.
redshirt
@Adam L Silverman: Your initial post made it seem like you thought we abandoned potential Muslim-Europeans to the misery of Russian-hood. Maybe that’s true, but I don’t think we ever had much say in the matter. Or could, without seriously risking the lives of everyone on this planet.
beltane
@Nate Dawg: I don’t understand Democrats either. However, I will always vote for them because I do understand Republicans.
Mike J
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Toss in some Hamilton tickets.
Omnes Omnibus
@beltane: I wouldn’t stay in a Trump property.
redshirt
@Nate Dawg: Yeah, at this point, I’m not sure why a candidate doesn’t just own the marijuana issue and run with it. It’s polling well north of 50% nationally.
Hell, if the Republicans did it they would get a bump from it.
Just Some Fuckhead
@redshirt: I’m a Clinton supporter. Hopefully we can bring them around. I think an economy platform like in ’92 is the way to do that.
Adam L Silverman
@redshirt: I did. And I do think we could have done more and it would have been a way to align our interests and our values. I wasn’t advocating going to war over it. Regardless, we have what we have in terms of radicalized, extremist Chechen Muslims today.
beltane
@Omnes Omnibus: You have always been my favorite elitist.
JPL
@Mike J: Yup.. I could definitely be bought for Hamilton tickets.
redshirt
As an aside, I’ve been using Hotwire for travel recently and have been staying in these sweet hotel rooms for around 110 a night when the room would normally go for around 250+, I think. I had a corner room on the 29th floor overlooking the Charles with a living room, huge bedroom, huge bathroom with a walk-in shower a couple of weeks ago. It was nuts.
Omnes Omnibus
@beltane: Thank you?
Just Some Fuckhead
@Nate Dawg: It’s like she’s running a campaign targeted at old people, like she’s worried she isn’t going to do well with them.
Adam L Silverman
@srv: You do understand we were going to authorize those regardless of who was Secretary of State? Everyone of those countries had military sales authorized to them when Condeleeza Rice and Colin Powell were Secretary of State too.
redshirt
@Just Some Fuckhead: You seemed like a Bernie-bot just yesterday, but maybe I missed a memo.
I agree though, focus on economic issues while the Repubs focus on social ones.
JPL
@Just Some Fuckhead: I don’t agree with that. She’s not comfortable with legalizing marijuana for medical reasons. It might have more to do with her age, than who she is trying to appeal to.
Do you happen to know how Sanders feels about it?
beltane
This thread is a lot more harmonious than the vegan mayonnaise one below.
seaboogie
@efgoldman:
Yeah, I think it’s the Atlantic Ocean that’s coming ashore and surging at Coney Island and Cape May – ultimately harder to stop than IS, AQ or Boko Haram. Guns not helpful.
Doug R
@Adam L Silverman: Then you’d end up with even more RT loving Putin and Snowden apologists.
trollhattan
@jl:
Those would be some YUUGE bed bugs.
MomSense
The photos from the President’s speech in Baltimore today are wonderful.
Just Some Fuckhead
@redshirt: I never really took a position outside of pointing out the candidates flaws and strengths and expressing doubt about their chances in a general.
Shame on you for being a douchebag based on who you thought someone was supporting. I’m going to let it go this time but I don’t want to see it again.
Just Some Fuckhead
@JPL: Sanders has wake and bake every morning, like a good BernieBro.
Frankensteinbeck
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Wow. I agree with… all of that. Her descriptions of Trump’s base, the reason conservatives hate the Fed, why we can’t have socialism, the importance of recognizing that the battle the other side is waging is based on race, that the banks are secondary and get their way because of racism, that minorities *are* Democrats and it’s insane to hang them out to dry… wow.
JPL
@Just Some Fuckhead: hahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahah
redshirt
@Adam L Silverman: I’m not saying we would have gone to war over it, but that the Russians would have considered any overt support an act of war, which would have put so many things at risk.
Sometimes, there’s no good solutions. Ask the Kurds.
Adam L Silverman
@srv: they doubled because military sales are what we call weaponized keynesianism. When you can’t get a suitable stimulus package though Congress and when you can’t get funding approved to do jobs and works programs redoing our crumbling infrastructure, you ramp up the one thing that the opposition in Congress will support: increased military sales. Had she not been Secretary of State they still would have doubled. All the State Department does in this process is indicate that the foreign country can receive the sales, they don’t determine how much they can get. If you’re going to flex your fingers, at least bother to learn about what it is you’re blathering on about.
redshirt
@efgoldman: Yeah, RI not so close to downtown Boston. Also, no view down inside Fenway Park.
Adam L Silverman
@redshirt: Believe me I know. Often one is playing for time.
Adam L Silverman
I’m too bed. You all have a nice night.
seaboogie
@beltane:
Vegans are just polarizing. Sad. Very sad. I like mayo, and that’s not mayo.
redshirt
@Just Some Fuckhead: Sure thing Champ!
Prescott Cactus
@Adam L Silverman:
Purely intentional I assure you.
PhoenixRising
@Adam L Silverman: and if I may…the reason those arms dealers were laying on a beach enjoying their choice of strippers & blow during ’07-’09 instead of selling guns to the KSA at the rate they did in FY ’11 was that demand had been saturated during the war in Iraq.
Also, withdrawing US troops from the region made governments there want their own guns.
You can support any convulsion with data as long as you’re allowed to cherry pick. In this example comparison timeframe.
redshirt
@Adam L Silverman: True.
I’ll admit when the Chenchen conflict started I was gung ho pro-Chenchen, thinking them scrappy rebels taking on the Evil Empire. Only later did the horror of the situation – on both sides, truly – become apparent to me.
The Beslan atrocity is the worst terrorist incident in the western world that I can think of, though I don’t doubt I might be missing something.
Just Some Fuckhead
I’m declaring victory and going to bed.
Don’t stay up all night EFG.
redshirt
@efgoldman: So does the hotel, but on that bizarre slow cable system all hotels seem to share. It takes like 5 seconds to change a channel.
Omnes Omnibus
@beltane: Vegan mayonnaise? The mind reels and the gorge rises.
FlipYrWhig
Bernie Sanders declaring that the only way to qualify as a card-carrying progressive is to do everything he does, and if you haven’t done those items you can only be a moderate not a progressive, never mind other progressive stuff like guns or immigration where he hasn’t particularly distinguished himself, is rather obnoxious. It’s the most firebaggish/Bernie-bro-ish thing I’ve seen the candidate himself do. (ETA this comment prompted by my watching the late rebroadcast of Chris Hayes.)
beltane
@Omnes Omnibus: I agree. The solution for those who object to eating eggs on moral grounds is to not eat mayonnaise.
Frankensteinbeck
@FlipYrWhig:
…he said what now?
Omnes Omnibus
@beltane: My objections are twofold.. Mayonnaise has eggs. It is evil, but it has eggs. I simply cannot abide the stuff. I like eggs. High quality oil is fine. Mix them and an abomination occurs. But mayo still has eggs.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Frankensteinbeck
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Jesus Christ. Well, thank goodness he Berniesplained that to me.
FlipYrWhig
@Frankensteinbeck: Well, it was more of a montage, some interview clips and some Tweets. A lot of back and forth between the camps over whether Hillary gets to call herself a progressive. IMHO the answer should be “we welcome her decision to join us in the progressive movement” or something, not “she’s a flip flopping liar who says anything to curry favor with her audience,” to paraphrase (not by much) shitweasel Tad Devine.
Ruckus
@schrodinger’s cat:
I had seen these before but have forgotten the basics, which helps in actually understanding them. I’d like to say it’s all coming back but I’d be lying. I might figure it out in 2 or 3 years if I reviewed what I learned in college, 40+ yrs ago. But then I doubt that’s going to happen either.
But you are right they are elegant.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Pretty much.
redshirt
Mayonnaise with crushed black pepper and a dash of paprika is delish on any sandwich.
FlipYrWhig
@Frankensteinbeck: To be fair, they had a clip of Hillary in the Fall saying people have called her a moderate and “in the center” and “I plead guilty.” But I think it’s really bad juju to say “Nuh-uh, you’re not a progressive, you’re just a moderate, and here’s how,” let alone the “say anything” attack.
beltane
@Omnes Omnibus: Mayonnaise is one of those foods I could not bring myself to eat for much of my life. Now that I’m a parent, I will force myself to eat it out of politeness on certain occasions, but I would be happy to never eat or even see the stuff ever again. Hard boiled eggs, on the other hand, are too disgusting to ever contemplate eating and I am far from being a fussy eater.
redshirt
@beltane: Just crazy talk. Hard boiled eggs are nature’s first perfect pocket food.
Omnes Omnibus
@beltane: There are foods I don’t care for (cooked spinach and squash, for example), but mayonnaise actually triggers my gag reflex.
Frankensteinbeck
@FlipYrWhig:
I’m sorry, but Bernie doesn’t get to define who is a progressive, or whether being a moderate disqualifies you. He walks the line of ‘You’re with the revolution or against it’ too closely as it is.
I’m probably oversensitive from some of his more paranoid ‘Hillary is a Republican’ supporters here. Really, they’ve been quiet lately and it’s been more substantive disagreements on aspirationalism versus realism, or class warfare versus race warfare.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Per Wiki, he’s worked for a whole lot of “Establishment” Dems, including Gore, Kerry, Bob Kerrey, fierce, principled progressives like Claire McCaskill and Bob Melendez and… John Corzine (what company was he associated with again?). One name missing from his all star resume is “Clinton”. I have an unfounded hunch there’s something personal there.
Omnes Omnibus
@Frankensteinbeck:
The last couple of Hillary vs Bernie threads have been significantly better. Hopefully, we can keep that up.
Ruckus
@Joel:
Why would they spend their time to listen to someone who didn’t value their time in the same way they do? The janitor will do it for $500. You want to get their money you have to talk in amounts that they understand. Upper 5 figures is a weekend on an island somewhere. That’s worth their precious time.
mclaren
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
True! People fired up by Hillary are willing to wait forever for The movement to have a critical mass to get things through Congress, because Hillary has already said all the things the public wants (no more foreign wars, $15/hr minimum wage, break up the big banks) are off the table.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: Good point. I never looked at it from that angle.
mclaren
The Genius of Hillary Clinton’s Pragmatism
“Better never to have change than to have to wait a few years for it under Bernie Sanders. Don’t vote for the candidates who promises you things that may never happen, vote for the candidate who promises never to make things happen!”
redshirt
@mclaren: You’re supporting Bernie, I take it? If so, tell me how he wins the General.
mclaren
Hillary Clinton: The Candidate Who Opposes Everything the People Want
Source: Wall Street Journal, 23 July 2015
Poll: Majority wants to break up big banks
Source: Bankrate banking blog, 21 January 2015.
Source: Huffington Post, 9 September 2015.
Poll Shows Only 1 in 4 Americans Wants More U.S. Involvement Abroad; Cuba and Iran Low on List
Source: Juan Cole’s Informed Comment blog, 17 August 2015.
Source: Forbes website, 5 August 2015.
Most Americans for Raising Minimum Wage
Source: Gallup website, 11 November 2013.
VOTE FOR HILLARY CLINTON IN NOVEMBER — THE ONE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WHO OPPOSES EVERYTHING YOU SUPPORT!
Felanius Kootea
@Adam L Silverman: The Nigerian government would never ask the French to intervene to deal with Boko Haram. The government of Niger on the other hand might.
mclaren
@redshirt:
By getting more votes than his opponent.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Really it is simple business. You want to sell them a car it has to cost what they think a car should cost. Drive a Chevy? Their suit and shoes probably cost way more than the downpayment on a Chevy.
It’s a hard thing I learned when I owned my mfg company. You have to know the market you work in as well as the actual cost of production. If you can’t charge the costs plus a reasonable profit, do something else. If the amount people are willing to pay is all out of proportion to the costs, in your favor, they don’t understand the market. Doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take their money……….
ETA I had a friend who was a custom tailor, Savile Row trained, told me about an lawyer client of his, had over 350 suits, never wore one more than once to a trial, and most of his trials lasted over a year.
redshirt
@mclaren: Of course, just wish it and it will come true. Bernie’s platform.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: I am a better subject matter expert than I am a business person. I learned that when I tried to have a solo practice.
ETA: I do get the idea that presentation is important. A PI practice shouldn’t have too fancy an office lest it make the potential client uncomfortable. OTOH, it shouldn’t seem rundown lest it seem unsuccessful.
mclaren
@Adam L Silverman:
Hillary actually sleazed her way out of by trying to point out that technically the speaking fee didn’t go to her personally, it went to the Clinton Global Initiative foundation…of which she is a directing member, with her hubby the chairman and her daughter Chelsea on the board of directors.
This is one of the problems people have with the Clintons: the sleaze factor. “It depends what the definition of `is’ is.” All these technicalities to cover up what is in the end nothing more than bribery.
NotMax
@seaboogie
Vegans, per se, are not polarizing.
As with any other system of belief, the blinkered proselytizers are polarizing.
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren: Oh shit, the money went to a charity.
mclaren
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand now we have the wonderful “Bernie can’t win the general election” smear.
Notice the downward spiral of the anti-Bernie smears:
[STAGE 1 SMEAR] “Bernie can’t win the primary, so voting for him will only split the Democrats and leave us vulnerable the Republicans, because Sanders has no ability to organize a massive ground campaign!”
Bernie ties with Hillary in Iowa
[STAGE 2 SMEAR] “Okay, forget our claim that Bernie can’t win the primary since now the evidence shows that’s not so — okay, we lied, but ignore that, because now Bernie can’t win the general election, because Sander hasn’t got the resources to go up against the Republican candidate!”
And when polls show Sanders nuking any potential Republican candidate…
[STAGE 3 SMEAR] “Okay, forget our claim that Bernie can’t win the general election, sure, we lied about that too, but ignore that, because now Bernie can’t ram through his agenda in Washington because he has no detailed meticulous step-by-step plan to do so!”
And when people point out that FDR had not detailed step-by-step plan to get their agenda through…
[STAGE 4 SMEAR] “Okay, forget our claim that Bernie can’t accomplish real change, sure, we lied about that too, just like we lied about everything else — but ignore that, because Bernie is a kike! And he’s old! And he’s white! And he’s funny-looking! And his mama wears army shoes!”
And the downward spiral continues, never-ending, ever-deepening…
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Being an honest business person is actual skilled work. Whatever the subject matter that you work with, running the business is different. And of course there are many ways to accomplish the task. But it is different than just making something or having useful knowledge of something people need (lawyer, doctor, accountant, machine shop, plumber, etc.)
Carly had all the training to do it, but none of the logic or smarts to apply it. Also I did say honest.
Frankensteinbeck
@Omnes Omnibus:
Well, it WAS going great. Then mclaren showed up in ‘3-4 Permanent, Unwinnable Wars’ mode.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: My happiest positions have been when I worked for the government. Aside form the public service thing (which isn’t nothing), the fact that I was just asked to do what I was good at and not market or determine prices was a relief.
NR
@redshirt: Tell me how Hillary wins the general with her massively high unfavorable ratings.
mclaren
@Omnes Omnibus:
Trouble is, with the goddamn Clintons, nobody really knows where the money went. It went to the Clinton Foundation which donated to a charity which, who knows? Maybe is a front for something the Clintons run, and in any case funneling it through the CGI to a charity supports Chelsea’s rich $200,000-per-year paycheck as a director of the Clinton Global Initiative…and blah blah blah. With the Clintons, it’s this never-ending hairball of complicated interlocking interests and corporate fronts and tax-free foundations and non-profits that somehow wind up paying Bill and Hillary and Chelsea a whole boatload ‘o money as members of the board of directors and chairman and yadda yadda yadda.
Source: “Unease at Clinton Foundation Over Finances and Ambitions,” The New York Times, 13 August 2013.
Nobody really knows where the fuck the money goes in that rathole misnamed the Clinton Global Initiative.
It’s the sleaze factor. It follows the Clintons wherever they go. And people are sick of it.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Once had a gentleman drive over an hour to get to my shop and he said if it hadn’t taken him that long to get there he would have just turned around and left, because of the neighborhood. It was shit by the way. However he came in and was amazed at the condition of the inside. Clean, well lit, reasonable number of skilled craftsmen, proper machines to do the work, place humming away. Impressions do matter. Too stilted and people expect that you over charge and too crappy they assume that your product is as well. Even if you work in a dirty business. Like I do.
mclaren
@NR:
Hillary wins the general election because SHUT UP, that’s how.
See?
Facts and logic, bitches!
NR
@redshirt: You know that Obama would not have won re-election in 2012 without them, right?
NR
@Cacti: I hear that sneering contempt is a great way to get people to support you. You should keep it up. I’m sure it’ll work out great for you.
redshirt
@NR: Um, by first dominating the Dem primary, which she will do after NH, and then completely outclassing any Repiublican rival. She’s long been tested and has the credentials. Any Republican is a joke for her at this point. She’s nigh unstoppable. She’ll also have Obama’s support.
Bernie while a good guy with good ideas has no such fearsomeness. He’s weak with no record and he’ll get blasted Dukakis style. Dukakis is a great man too, by the way, and would have made an excellent President. But I can’t disagree why he got crushed. He couldn’t compete against the Right Wing puke funnel.
Hillary can. She’s been fighting it for over 30 years.
All that matters is the ability to counter the Right Wing machine.
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren: Make your choice. Vote for Bernie, if you think he is the best candidate. OTOH, if he is the candidate and wins the election, when can we expect your complaints that he sold you out? Just asking…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
jesus, the whackjob and the second stupidest sniveling wannabe-revolutionary in the inter-tubes.
redshirt
@mclaren: Tell me how Bernie wins the General. This is the second time I’ve asked you in this thread.
mclaren
@Frankensteinbeck:
3-4 endless unwinnable wars?
Ha!
Surely you jest, sir.
Source: “The US Is Now Involved In 134 Wars — Or none, depending on your definition of ‘war,'” Timothy McGrath, 22 September 2014.
Take your pick: 5 wars? 134 wars? As many as you want! And remember…as soon as one unwinnable war winds down, another one starts up!
NR
@redshirt: I love it. Hillary’s negatives don’t matter. She’ll get elected even with unfavorables north of 50%. Sure, it’s never happened before in the history of the United States, but it will this time, because reasons. Nothing to worry about, nothing to see here, move along, move along.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
My only time working for the government was in the navy. I’m thinking that I probably got (or formed!) a slanted view of the situation. When I was discharged the XO told me that I’d be back, my kind always comes back. Figuring I had nothing to lose (I’d seen my discharge orders from the Pentagon) I told him that I had a friend whose dad owned a dairy and that dairy had lots of cows and therefore lots of cowshit which someone has to shovel and that I’d delight in shoveling cowshit for the rest of my life rather than work for people like him. Picked up my signed paperwork and walked out without looking back.
mclaren
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Indeed you are…but I was too tactful to point it out.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@mclaren: I don’t know what your diagnosis is, but it’s no excuse for clogging up the threads with your endless cut’n’pastes. It’s just bad manners. Post a link we can all ignore, you whackadoo.
redshirt
@NR: Tell me more about these “negatives”.
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren:
From your, possibly copyright violating, blockquote. Define war.
NR
@redshirt: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
redshirt
@NR: And what’s Obama’s negatives right now?
mclaren
@redshirt:
And for the second time, I’ll answer you — by getting more votes than any of the lunatic losers the Republicans are putting up.
Trump? Bernie will feed him into a meatgrinder. All Bernie has to do is point across at the other podium and start yelling about billionaires trying to buy our government. The audience will go wild. Cruz? Cue the ads for Cruz explaining that we need to cut social security and medicare. Rubio? Fire up the attack ads about Rubio’s best family pal, the long-time cocaine dealer, who might or might not have funded Rubio’s first political campaigns. Jeb? Get serious, he’s polling at 3 percent, he’s dead in the water and will not be nominee.
Any of the candidates the Republicans are fielding this year are going to get crushed like steamrollered cockroaches by Bernie and his team. I’ve heard the guy speak in person. Fantasize on about Dukakis…Bernie will shred these punks one-on-one and with attack ads until their own mothers run to the polling booth to vote Democratic.
NR
@redshirt: How is that relevant? Is Obama running for president right now?
Omnes Omnibus
@NR: You understand that HRC’s negatives are baked in? Sanders, as a relative newcomer to the national stage has few negs now. It doesn’t mean that they won’t appear.
mclaren
@Omnes Omnibus:
More Clintonian triangulation bullshit. Everybody knows what a fucking war is. If U.S. troops are dying and Americans are pissing away their tax dollars to fund the military hardware, it’s a goddamn war.
These kinds of infantile verbal calisthenics are a really good reason why Hillary and her crew have run the patience of the American people right out to zero. America has no serious enemies anywhere in the world. There are no existential threats to America anywhere in the world right now. Everybody fucking knows it, and we need to dial our military spending wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy way way way back.
If you don’t realize that, then you’re living in a lala-land compounded of too-clever verbal constructions like “it depends on what the definition of `is’ is.”
Out here in the real world, 75% of the U.S. population knows damn well we’re involved in far too many wars, we’re spending far too much on war, and it’s time to call a grind screeching slamming halt to it all, stat.
redshirt
@NR: Any Democrat will register high negatives if they have a national audience, because of Republicans. Hillary is like Enemy Number 1 to them and that should actually tell you something positive, not negative. They’re terrified of her. Why do you think that is?
And Bernie’s not getting those Republican crossover votes, FYI.
NR
@Omnes Omnibus:
And this is somehow supposed to be a good thing? You understand that they’re “baked in” at a level where no candidate with similar numbers has ever been elected president in the history of the United States, right?
redshirt
@mclaren: Yeah, no. You just basically said “PONIES!”. Its all pie in the sky. I thought better of you.
mclaren
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
SHORTER JIM, FOOLISH LITERALIST: “Your facts and logic make me throw a tantrum and now I’m screaming at the top of my lungs for you to stooooooooooooooooooooop!!!”
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren: You are the one who said 3 or 4 wars. I was just asking how you calculated that.
NR
@redshirt: You don’t get to over 50% unfavorable ratings if it’s just Republicans who don’t like you. Look up her numbers specifically with independents if you don’t believe me.
Omnes Omnibus
@NR: No woman has been elected president. Before 2008, no Black man had been elected. Before 1960, no Catholic had been elected.
redshirt
@NR: I don’t care. If you think a 74 year old cranky white Jewish man with bad hair and bad teeth and bad skin and bad connections has a better chance than a life long political player with every asset at her disposal including a truly revolutionary election, then there’s nothing I can say to sway your opinion.
But as many have said prior, if some miracle occurs and Bernie is the Democratic nominee in the General, I will gladly vote for him, while expecting him to lose.
mclaren
@NR:
The only argument Hillary’s supporters have going for them is the fantasy of inevitability. Alas, Bernie’s equal showing with Hillary in Iowa shattered that myth of inevitabilty.
So what do Hillary’s fans have left to fall back on?
Empty smears that, sure, Bernie actually can do well in the primaries…but he can’t win the general. Then when the pathetic loser gets squirted out of the vast anus of the Republican nominating machines and lays there like a vast stinking turd repelling voters in all 50 states and it becomes clear that Bernie can indeed win the general, the Hillary fans will move on to yet another anti-Bernie smear.
No facts. No evidence. No logic. Just: “Hillary is inevitable.” It’s like the Svengali routine. The mesmerist sits in front of Trilby trying to convince her with the sonorous drone of his stuporous voice.
Nope. Not gonna work. After Bernie polled 50-50 with Hillary Iowa, you need something other a sonorous voice repeating patently false pabulum to derail Bernie’s dreadnought candidacy that’s crushing everything in its path.
redshirt
@mclaren: LOL. Nice writing. Made me laugh.
NR
@Omnes Omnibus: Not the same thing and you know it.
Omnes Omnibus
@mclaren: If he wins the nom, I will vote for him. I will canvass for him. I will give what money I can for him. Can you promise the same if Clinton wins?
mclaren
@Omnes Omnibus:
On this point, you are correct, sir.
We are in a new political era.
The insane losers being tossed up by the frothing cesspool of the Republican primary system are so repellent even to other Republicans that the Republicans themselves are warning with tones of increasingly punitive hysteria that any candidate the Democrats nominate will grind the Republican nominee into hamburger.
“Ben Carson blasts RNC, theatens to leave Republican party”
“Ted Cruz warns establishment candidate will lose to a Democrat”
“GOP lawmaker warns of candidates’ skeletons in closets”
It’s a Democratic dream come true. The Republicans are coming apart like a wedding cake in the rain. Now is the time for Democratic voters to grab onto the most progressive candidate they can nominate like he’s a horse cock and they’re Catherine the Great.
Omnes Omnibus
@NR: Explain why.
redshirt
@mclaren:
Just for comparison, here’s mclaren’s reasons for why Bernie will win the general:
NR
@redshirt:
The thing about facts is, they don’t change regardless of whether or not you care about them. And it is a fact that no one with Hillary’s unfavorable numbers has ever been elected president in US history.
And if “bad hair and bad skin” are what you’re going by, that’s just sad.
NR
@Omnes Omnibus: It should be rather fucking obvious. Voters can be persuaded to vote for a Catholic or a black person or a woman. They can’t be persuaded to vote for someone they hate.
redshirt
Here’s a real Dukakis story:
I was walking towards Fenway Park in Kenmore Square, and who should I see walking right at me but former Democratic Presidential candidate, Michael Dukakis. I am quickly mentally preparing something to say and getting ready for a hand shake when he darts to the right, suddenly, and picks up a piece of trash, and then walks over to a trash can in front of a luxury hotel and dumps it, then walking back onto his path.
Maybe he was just avoiding me, or maybe he’s just really a terrific guy who picks up litter on the streets of Boston still, to this day.
redshirt
@NR: So? Bernie wins, how, my positive friend?
Also facts: No woman has ever been elected President.
Also, no Jew has ever been elected President.
Facts.
Omnes Omnibus
@NR:W’vevs I’ll vote for the D when the time comes. The rest is commentary and/or I need to get some sleep.
mclaren
@Omnes Omnibus:
Okay, I admit it…I was low. 5 wars. I’ll go with the same calculation Linda Bilmes (Harvard Kennedy School) and Michael Intriligator (UCLA) used. They defined war in their 2013 paper “conflicts where the US is launching extensive military incursions, including drone attacks, but that are not officially ‘declared.’”
Source: “How Many Wars Is the U.S. Fighting Today?” 2013 (pdf download)
So, yeah, by that definition America is at war in five places right now: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen.
NR
@redshirt: By making his case to an electorate that doesn’t already hate him.
The rest of your comment is already answered in 325.
Ruckus
@NR:
No, you get unfavorable ratings with 30 yrs of media bullshit about you. And there is a reason that they (her and her husband) have these ratings. And that’s because the conservatives and their media are scared of her. She’s way to conservative – that’s a media/conservative mime. She’s an old crone, unfriendly and stupid – another media/conservative mime. And on and on. If you are going to take your information from conservative biased sources, you are going to get biased mimes. It’s all they have, bullshit, their ideals, their irrational rantings, their entire concept of no government, no taxes, no blacks or other minorities, we are all christians, it’s all bullshit. Don’t be caught up in that.
NR
@Ruckus: I’m talking about numbers. My personal opinion of Hillary is irrelevant. What matters is what voters think. And they don’t like her.
mclaren
@redshirt:
Because the overwhelming majority of the American people agree with Bernie’s policies, and because Bernie’s candidacy has shown that he has a massive and unprecedented ability to reach out and energize people across all walks of life. Sanders has out-fund-raised Hillary Clinton and he’s done it without tapping giant corporations and big banks and the military industrial complex, the way Hillary has.
Are you trying to tell that the snowballing enthusiasm and skyrocketing money raising and ever-increasing rallies that push out into overflow crowds every time Bernie speaks are just going to go away when Bernie gets the Democratic nomination?
We’ve seen this phenomenon before, kiddo — with Ronald Reagan. But Reagan was the dark side of the charismatic populist force…Bernie has a blue light saber.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: Last time i remember seeing NR here was during the ACA fight – as a kill the bill guy. I may be wrong, but there may be conclusions to be drawn.
Betty Cracker
@mclaren:
LMAO! Bravo!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Omnes Omnibus: Yup, the only thing stopping Claire McCaskill and Joe Lieberman from passing a robust public option (“we” had sixty votes! he bleated endlessly) was the evil Barack Obama.
redshirt
@mclaren: Jesus, it’s like the “BULLY PULPIT” argument writ large.
This old white socialist man is going to light a fire under all those fat ass disaffected Fox News watching Americans!!!!
Once they hear him speak, they’ll know.
mclaren
Incidentally, most of this is just a tempest in a teapot, because the overwhelming polling evidence right now shows that whoever the Democrats nominate will crush the Republican nominee. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, any of these losers will be toast if they come up against either Hillary OR Bernie.
Hillary has got wicked debating skills. She’ll cut any of the Republican nominees to pieces and leave him standing in a warm puddle behind his podium.
Sanders just has to hammer away on the corporate takeover of America and the destruction of the middle class and the Republicans’ war against blacks and women and the cheers from the audience will drown out the Republican nominee.
This election is no-brainer. Whatever Republican gets nominated doesn’t stand a chance.
And there’s a good reason for that — because these lame-ass Repubs are still trying to run on Reagan’s supply-side bullshit and Dubya’s anti-terror horseshit, and both of those horses are too tired and too old to make it around the racetrack anymore. It’s not the aftermath of 9/11 anymore, and it’s not the CEO-worshiping 1980s anymore when the middle class was feeling fat and happy and nonchalant about giving tax cuts to the billionaires. We’ve been through both of those Drano enemas, and the American public is sick of both of those policies and they want change. The Repubs don’t realize that. They’re partying like it’s still 1980. The Democrats understand what the American public wants, the Democratic candidates are both campaigning on that basis, and whatever Democrat gets nominated will absolutely blow the Republican nominee out of the water.
This election is going to be Mitt Romney’s “48% of takers” gaffe raised to the 666th power.
Ruckus
@NR:
I’m a voter and I like her.
And there are a lot of people on this blog who agree. There are a lot of people in the real world who agree.
You don’t like her, fine. You like Sanders, fine. But his support right now is a mile wide and an inch deep. And how he’s campaigning now isn’t going to win a lot of long term dems. Nor probably a lot of new young voters. He’s turning into an old man shouting at clouds. And I know from old men and their clouds, as I’m not all that much younger than him.
So instead of looking at polling, look at the candidates. Listen to both of them and make a choice based on what you hear and see. And once again you like Sanders better, that’s great.
Just remember when she’s the candidate and he’s not, support her, vote for her. Because everyone on this blog who likes Clinton will do the same if he manages to pull this out. And the reason for that is that either one of them will do you a solid far, far better than any conservative, as the only solid thing they will do for you is to shit on you.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
I believe you are correct. But every once in a while I think it helps to at least try to kill the negativism that his type bring to the world. Probably won’t make a dent directly (as that may be impossible) but someone else may be on the fence and will listen.
mclaren
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
That claim is truer than you know.
Barack Obama taking the public option off the table was indeed the primary reason we didn’t get a robust public option.
Pro tip: when negotiating, you do not start low and take your most powerful bargaining position off the table before you start. No, when negotiating, you start high, and act as though you are intransigent on your most powerful bargaining position.
Barack Obama himself ridiculed the individual health insurance mandate and called it unworkable during the primary.
Look…if instead of taking it off the table, Obama had bargained hard, starting with a full nationalized single-payer system in which he threatened to impress recalcitrant doctors into public service by executive order and threatened to unleash the DOJ with full RICO asset forfeiture powers against the AMA if they tried to block it, we might not have ended up with a nationalized single-payer health care system in America — but we’d be a hell of a lot farther toward it than the current miserable system in which most people can’t use their insurance because they can’t afford the sky-high deductibles and co-pays.
“Many Say High Deductibles Make Their Health Law Insurance All but Useless,” The New York Times, 14 November 2015.
redshirt
@efgoldman: mclaren is as smart as a whip. If only we could harness that intelligence for productive ends!
mclaren
@Ruckus:
Do you have any hard polling data to back up your vacuous claims?
Judging from the polls, Sanders is nuking Hillary in terms of younger voters. And judging by the Iowa caucus results, he’s neck-and-neck with her in pulling in older likely voters.
How do these results square with your claims?
mclaren
@redshirt:
Efgoldman has a mind like a steel trap — always either empty, or closed.
Ruckus
@NR:
You must not have been around when JFK was running. Those that want to can hate on catholics just fine. And blacks and women. Especially black catholic women. They can really hate them some black, catholic women.
Is it that she’s a woman? You hate all women and that’s what this is all about? Damn I should have seen it earlier.
redshirt
@mclaren: lol. I laughed. No offense, Abe.
NR
@Ruckus:
Not nearly as many as who disagree. That’s the point.
I don’t know why you’re so focused on me. I am probably 90% certain to vote for Hillary at this point (my support is not guaranteed, it would be foolish to give that up so early). But I will do so knowing full well that she is very likely to lose the election. Because I’m not who you have to worry about. It’s the independents who can’t stand Hillary and who WILL vote for a Republican over her.
At this point, I honestly think Hillary’s only chance of winning the general election is if the Republicans nominate Donald Trump, because believe it or not, his favorability numbers are even worse than hers. But even then, I’m not at all sure that she’ll beat him. I wouldn’t bet against a Republican in a race to the bottom.
NR
@Ruckus:
Have you stopped beating your wife?
mclaren
@Omnes Omnibus:
Fucking-A!
This is why the Democratic nominee, whomever it is, will win this November over anyone the Repubs nominate…because we are all of us, for the first time in many years, 100% united in agreeing to put aside our differences and vote for either Hillary or Bernie when the time comes. If Hillary is the nominee, you bet your ass I will vote for her. Because the alternative is a gibbering Republican loon spouting Ayn Rand crap and howling about Mexican rapists and drug dealers. Or pyramids and granaries. Or some other demented lunacy.
redshirt
@mclaren: There’s the mclaren I’ve come to dig!
Right on!
dogwood
@NR:
I’m always skeptical about this talk of “Independents”. A growing number of voters identify as such, but the vast majority are not swing voters. Since George W, the rise of independents seems to coincide with fewer voters identifying as republicans. Most of these ex republican voters aren’t going to vote for Hillary or Bernie. Most of the democratic leaners will vote for either.
Ruckus
@NR:
Dude, you are the one that started all this everyone hates her business.
Own it.
And your question has all the class of someone who always thinks in negative directions. Everyone else has to be wrong. Get the fuck over yourself.
Now I’m off to bed for tomorrow is a work day and someone has to make min wage to keep the economy humming.
NR
@Ruckus:
Actually the polling data is what started that, but who’s counting? The point is, it’s true. You can deny it, you can try to pretend it doesn’t matter, but you can’t change facts.
Own that.
redshirt
@NR: You care/trust that much in polls?
NR
@redshirt: Without a compelling reason as to why I shouldn’t believe them, yes, I do.
They’ve accurately predicted the political fate of politicians with Hillary’s unfavorable numbers for as long as they’ve been around, after all.
redshirt
@NR: No Jewish person has ever been elected President either. Do you have any polls on that?
Darkrose
@redshirt: I have a Dukakis story! When I worked at BU, I took a side job working in the bookstore during fall rush one year. This was in 1993, mind you, when I was using a 1200 baud modem on my Mac LC and carrying packets uphill, both ways, in the snow. People came in with their paper lists to buy books. Anyway, I’m doing checkout and Michael and Kitty Dukakis come up–she was taking classes in social work and needed to get her books. I don’t remember much except they were both very polite, though he didn’t say much.
VFX Lurker
@NR:
I guess she’ll be the first, then.
Joel
@Nate Dawg: As loudly as people like to talk about it, it’s not really a major issue, electorally, and it’s being resolved at the state level.
Kay
Here’s what I don’t like about Clinton’s answer on the speaking fees- it’s the “I’m a good person” argument.
Here’s what someone making this argument is asking you to believe- “while other people may be swayed or influenced by this sort of thing, I am not, because I’m a good person”.
It’s rational to believe politicians are influenced by fees or donations. It’s the presumption. They have to do better than “well, maybe some are, but not me, because I’m a good person“.
Ethics rules and norms and questions are based on the presumption that we’re NOT good people- that we’re all fallible and can be captured and we all rationalize self-serving behavior.
C.V. Danes
@Just Some Fuckhead:
I think that argument would backfire on her, since at least some of the current ills, such as creation of the megabanks, can be traced directly back to her husband’s term.
Kay
The “good person” argument leads to the counter, which is “she’s not a good person” and then we’re being asked to determine motives and read tea leaves.
I don’t want to argue over “good or bad person”. I don’t know if she’s “good” or even what that means. I want her to start with the presumption anyone else starts with, which is “taking huge fees might pose a conflict” and some explanation for why she’s one of the exceptions to that rule.
Kay
@C.V. Danes:
I don’t think Bill Clinton’s economic argument for the 90’s fits at all today. There was a huge “budget balancing” aspect to it and we were madly deregulating during that period.
It was of that time, completely.
C.V. Danes
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Which part of ‘the fight’ are you talking about: issues related to expanding health care and the environment, or coddling the banks, increasing the reach of the security state, and approving the TPP?
Kay
@C.V. Danes:
The TPP to me is the worst, for either Obama or Clinton, because the entire state of Ohio heard them run against trade deals like this in the ’08 primary. There were ads and mailers and outraged press conferences where they traded barbs on who was more trade-deal friendly. I get it, I really do, I have been watching long enough to know that Democrats dissemble and mislead on trade, but boy, this was blatant.
They ran against trade deals like this. Not everywhere, because trade deals are either a non-issue or a plus in other states, but in this state? They ran against the TPP. There is nothing in that deal that makes it any different than any of the others.
C.V. Danes
The thread is extremely long now, so not sure what I can add, but here’s my two cents. Several have indicated that Clinton is running for Obama’s third term. Ok, I can see that, but we need to have a discussion on that that means. Obama has accomplished some good things, like pushing through the ACA and his current work on global warming. But he has also accomplished some troubling things. Torture was swept under the rug. He failed to pursue the banksters. He’s all about the TPP. He sided with BP during the oil spill until he was forced not to. He’s deported more people than Bush. He hates whistleblowers. And so on.
If Clinton wants to run as Obama’s third term, she (and we) need to be honest about that that means. It hasn’t been all cake and roses under Obama, and you can’t blame it all on the Republicans.
Kay
The TPP may not be a substantive issue for Clinton, because they aren’t going to push it in an election year if higher-profile candidates don’t endorse it. They can slow walk it, and they will.
NAFTA took HW Bush and Bill Clinton to push it thru. The TPP could easily span two Presidents, of the same or different Parties. They may have even followed the NAFTA passage model, where both Parties take a hit on unpopular deals – neither Party alone will pass them.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Well, since I didn’t mention any of those things, I’m probably not talking about them.
But thank god we have people to remind us of the real enemy.
Kay
@Just Some Fuckhead:
The youngest voters, the people Sanders is strong with, are not comparing Hillary Clinton to George W Bush or Nixon or LBJ, or, worse, “whoever Republicans nominate”.
They’re comparing Hillary Clinton to Bernie Sanders and Obama, because Obama has been President their entire adult lives. It’s like we’re demanding they have a different lived experience than the one they had and have. It isn’t going to work. They are younger. They had a different experience.
My father includes Truman and Eisenhower in his lived experience of Democrats and Republicans. That’s in his comparison set. I don’t. I’m younger.
C.V. Danes
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: So, trying to be realistic about what a ‘third Obama term’ might look like is reminding us the enemy? If there’s an enemy, it’s complacency. The Obama we’re seeing right now is not the same Obama that we’ve seen for much of his presidency. It’s the Obama that doesn’t give a f’k because he doesn’t have to get reelected.
Applejinx
@NR: Nah. Demographics. Plus, total meltdown on the R side.
Hillary could be elected President in spite of the often (but not always) justified unfavorables, because of the demographics. Black voters are absolutely correct that she’s not going to make policy TARGET them, nor is she going to be worse than the R in the continuing decline of America and trashing of middle class dreams
(that a lot of them ain’t got access to anyway: on Tuesday I was personally in a theater with Bernie and he told the real truth about unemployment, demographic by demographic. 5% my ass, it’s way worse and keeps going to something like 50% unemployment of lower class black youth. He used this statistic to rail about how we choose to fund prisons, instead of education, and he’s right: we do, the Clintons used to take contributions from the private prison industry though I understand they’ve stopped doing that)
Bernie could be elected President in spite of not being a lying sack of shit politician like seemingly every other one with substantial time in Washington, because of demographics and something Hillary doesn’t have: nobody else can peel off wingnut votes. He becomes a protest vote, and we’ve seen from Trump’s showing that the protest anti-establishment vote is a medium but not insignificant percentage of the R demographic. For a while there it looked like Trump was going to win! (He’d probably have been better than the others).
Given that Trump only wins if he gets to stay #1 and have it all his way, when he throws a fit and goes home, the obvious place for some of the Trump people to go in the general election is to Bernie, because Bernie may be pretty obnoxious to polite establishment people (a positive, for this crowd) but he’s neither faking nor giving up. Unlike Trump, Bernie has been fighting up from insignificance this entire time, and so you know he’s not going to give up or flipflop on you, because to a fault he doesn’t do that.
So let’s say out of the what, 20% of the electorate that are Trump supporters because he’s not the establishment, a fifth of them refuse to line up behind either an uber-Establishment guy or a maniacal Christ-crusader who’s as slimy as a televangelist (I’m thinking Cruz there: very far from the Trump appeal of being a forthright blusterer). So, 4% of the R vote goes as anti-Establishment as they can by voting Bernie rather than anybody else more associated with business as usual in Washington, just to fuck with them.
Bernie wins in a landslide right there. This mechanic is obviously not available to Hillary, but it’s repeatedly on record that there are people debating between Trump and Sanders, even back when it looked like Trump was going to obliterate the R primaries! Even back when it looked like a Trump landslide, people were considering going for Sanders.
Without Trump, the Rs are fucked, even against Hillary (because demographics). Without Trump and against Sanders, they’re double fucked because they’ll get protest votes going for Sanders against their own candidate. He is, after all, genuinely a pain-in-the-butt gadfly anti-establishment guy, always was. If it’s a message they want to send, he’ll be the only real option, sitting right there waiting to be used.
In some ways they’d even get what they wanted by voting for him: disrupt the Establishment.
Also note Sanders’ intelligent refusal to go directly for gun control at this time (if ever: he might not be your guy if gun control is your main deal). I’ve seen him directly say that it’s a big country with many opinions about the matter. That’s true, and he comes from a state where hunting for sport or subsistence is still a thing (I’ve had venison in my fridge thanks to a hunter friend, replacing meat-industry beef). I’m pretty sure he’s refusing to triangulate there for two reasons: one, he doesn’t actually go for the full gun control thing, just incremental stuff like assault weapons bans and extended magazines, and two, he understands that he’ll be running in the general election and needs to make the most of his crossover appeal to disaffected Republicans. What he needs from the South, etc. is not primarily to disarm them, it’s to enlist their support in an economic revolution. That would work with some Trump voters, some Rand Paul voters and so on.
The percentages he’d need from the R side to turn a Dem win into a Dem (Socialist) landslide are relatively tiny. And again it’s already a thing with people debating Trump vs. Sanders, even when Trump was projected to demolish the primaries and be unstoppable.
Trump’s misfired, and Sanders has fought Clinton to a draw, with only superdelegates and Washington connections and six straight COIN flips to protect her victory. All that, and Clinton only barely tied with Sanders in Iowa.
How do you think the ‘Trump or Sanders’ fringe are feeling now? To my mind the concern is more stopping them from changing the tone and issues and getting them on board with what Sanders is saying.
But again, no worries: anybody seriously ready to suggest a bunch of Trump voters are going to make Bernie triangulate? Ha. He’ll just order them to sit down and listen because he knows exactly what is wrong and what we need.
They like that. Again, match made in demographic heaven.
One more time: neither Democratic candidate would lose. Either Hillary or Bernie would win. It’s strictly the margin of landslide we’re trying to maximize, because Congress is sensitive to feeling like they’re at risk of being thrown out.
Betty Cracker
@C.V. Danes: I don’t envy the fine line Clinton has to walk during this primary. PBO is rightly a popular, beloved figure with Democrats in general, so it makes sense for her to embrace his policies and position herself as his successor — nothing unusual about that. But a subset of Obama supporters come close to demanding fan service of Clinton, which she really can’t afford to do since many people genuinely are disaffected and pissed off for perfectly valid reasons, and they don’t want to hear that she plans to stay on the exact same path.
So far, I think she’s handled it pretty ably, embracing the administration’s achievements that most Democrats support and faintly disagreeing on issues like TPP, but she’s going to have to more plainly state where there is daylight between her plans and PBO’s policies because those are Sanders’ issues. The next debate should be interesting.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@NR: Women turn out and vote for her. QED.
Cheers,
Scott.
FlipYrWhig
@Applejinx:
Your faith that a bunch of angry, hate-filled racists are going to throw themselves behind the candidate whose ENTIRE BRAND is redistribution (by which every Republican understands “from us to the blacks and Mexicans”) is… touching?
Applejinx
@FlipYrWhig: Hi! I’ve been following your posting career with great interest.
I wouldn’t have believed it myself until they started turning up in news stories, back when Trump was projected to demolish the R primaries.
It seems Trump brought together the angry hate-filled racist contingent, and the ‘throw all of Washington out’ contingent, plus a ‘burn the mother down’ contingent. I’m sure some of the most hate-filled racists will not line up behind Sanders (try Cruz, perhaps). I never said all the Trump people would go to Sanders, I suggested a fifth of the Trumpsters would (because ‘antiEstablishment at all costs’).
You’ve got to look at things from the perspective of demographics and motivations. I’ve noticed a lot of Clinton people kinda lump voters together and sometimes dismiss ’em as one stereotype or another. This is not how you build shaky coalitions and get stuff done.
The really odd thing is how a guy like Bernie who’s quite inflexible is better suited to building such a shaky coalition because at least his position is stable. Anything you might fault, such as being weaker than Hillary on gun control, can play very differently in the general election.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@mclaren: And supposedly 90% of Americans want tighter gun control laws like closing the gun show loophole and restrictions on semi-automatic weapons and large-capacity magazines.
We know how well what people say they want translates into votes in Congress and votes come November.
Polls on issues don’t matter much in determining election outcomes.
What matters in determining who wins the nomination seems to come down to personalities, understanding of the process, and having a strong team to win the necessary number of delegates. And avoiding unpleasant surprises. A dispassionate look at those factors seems to indicate that HRC has the stronger hand than Bernie. But it’s early. We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who is voting for Jill Stein because Botsplainer explained that she’s giving out $100 printed on the skin of millionaires and billionaires and that sounds just great!!11)
Just Some Fuckhead
@Applejinx:
I lol’ed.
FlipYrWhig
@Applejinx:
OK, I’m being a dick lately and I need to rein it in.
I’m cynical that way and I think Hillary Clinton is too, which is one of the reasons I started out a Hillarian in ’08 and only moved to Obama gradually. I’m not going to put a lot of stock in crossover voters or making common cause outside the halls of Congress. I think Republican voters are hardcore and unreachable. The suburban moderates who used to be the reachable Republicans are basically already Democrats now. I think there’s more downside potential in alienating moderates than upside potential in wooing angry members of the working class. Angry members of the working class are proud Republicans. That’s their base.
Kay
Clinton might not need young people. If Obama got 60 young and 40 older and Romney got 40 young and 60 older, and older voters turn out at 70% compared to 30% for youngs, and Clinton closes that gap with the older voters…well, she could swing that.
It bothers me because it’s short term thinking and the Democratic Party was crowing over their dominance with the youngs as late as 2012, but that kind of numerical trade off would just be the reverse of the “Kerry and Obama rely on youth because older voters are leaning GOP”.
You could look at it as older (swingy) voters are a double whammy for Democrats because they don’t just NOT vote for Democrats- they vote for Republicans. Younger voters have low turnout. They just won’t show up, which is less damaging.
C.V. Danes
@Betty Cracker: Agreed. Perhaps someone should start a new thread (nudge, nudge) to generate discussion on what a ‘third Obama term’ should look like if Clinton is going to use that as her platform :-)
Vhh
@efgoldman: At I ast his Prez campaign fizzled.
FlipYrWhig
@Kay: Why not have Bernie Sanders continuing his barnstorming tour in the general election, saying “I don’t agree with Hillary Clinton on every issue, but the only way to accomplish any of the things our political revolution is about is to elect her first and then never stop working to make our presence felt!”
Applejinx
@FlipYrWhig: Don’t worry about it, we all get intense :) I think that’s one of the charms of Balloon Juice. We don’t have to hold back, we just can’t be too fragile. It’s a damn good place for gut reactions from thinking people of wildly different backgrounds.
I think when you have half the country brainwashed into accepting increasingly improbable stuff, they’re not unreachable. I see a lot of the Tea Party people as ‘right about something’s horribly wrong, but horribly wrong about what to do about it’. Besides, fanatics are always the most flippable: it’s the lackadaisical middle that you can’t even get to, because they’re comfortable and switched-off and not listening.
I think one thing about the Yoots today is that they cannot be that switched off because they cannot be comfortable. They’re seriously fucked in so many ways. I share that as I’m an indie small business self-employed guy so the only way I could be more fucked is if I was a black indie small business self-employed guy… people like us, we can’t trust that ‘stay the course’ is going to be any use at all because the direction’s extremely bad and accelerating. A new course is needed, no matter what.
This we share with the Teahadis, and that’s how coalitions are built. If they weren’t hopelessly conflicted, they wouldn’t BE coalitions, they’d be ‘the same’.
Applejinx
@FlipYrWhig: Oh, if we get stuck with her, that’s what you’ll see. We have no choice. The concern is that Hillary is on the other side.
Watch: one more huge Wall Street crash, and she’ll bail them with public money again and we’ll be very seriously fucked. I daresay on racial issues and gun control she will accomplish things, and props to her for being plausible on that stuff.
On some very important points (hawkishness, economics) Hillary is on the other side and electing her is actively making things worse. Let’s be clear on that. It’s the reason the Bernie people are uniformly upset that the Obama organization wasn’t there during the midterms, and it’s the reason we have to set up our own organization that’s not the Democrats which can stay engaged so we can be effective after the election.
ESPECIALLY if Hillary wins the primary and the general. That is a recipe for a lot of rapid motion in the wrong direction, thankfully with a bunch of social justice stuff to cover it up. I’ll happily take the social justice stuff she brings, too bad the country will be economically destroyed and all the money will fly off to the Caymans.
C.V. Danes
@FlipYrWhig: I don’t have a problem with that, AFTER she gets the nomination.
Kay
@FlipYrWhig:
I don’t know- I’m operating on like 25 Sanders supporters I have met- but I think you’re making an error confusing “Bernie Sanders” with “Bernie Sanders supporters”.
IMO, Sanders is an issues proxy. Issues activists are different than candidate activists.
I don’t know that it will be up to him or possible for him to “lead” them to Clinton.
I would be sorry to lose Lefties and the youngs, though. I don’t think they’re “the base” of the Party in sheer numbers but I do think they are (among) the groups who are the heart of the Party. I also worry about Democrats lopping off groups, any groups. The Great Lakes- (eastern) Midwest and into Western PA, scares me. I think they’re drifting Right. White working class who vote “D” isn’t consistent across the US. Democrats rely on them more in some places than in others, just like they rely on labor in some places more than others.
different-church-lady
@Kay: What percentage of younger voters do you think will actually take their ball and go home if they don’t get their Sanders?
I really think the pouting blowhardism is the destructive part of this dysfunctional national “conversation.” I believe a lot of young voters would say, “Okay, fine, Clinton then,” in the general. What percentage I don’t care to guess myself. But I know the percentage that would either stay home or go scorched earth would be lower.
FlipYrWhig
@Applejinx:
But that’s the thing: they’re not brainwashed, they’re assholes, the products of generations of assholes. I don’t think we need to counter-program them. I think we need to outvote them.
I really think you’re misreading or misjudging Hillary Clinton on “economics.”
different-church-lady
@Kay:
Indeed, it appears to be older people who hang out on democratic blogs that do it.
different-church-lady
@FlipYrWhig:
The assholes point is a good one, but there’s probably a percentage of both kinds.
Paul in KY
@Betty Cracker: Does zika do anything to those of us who don’t have kids? i.e, males.
FlipYrWhig
@Kay: I’m not entirely sure what the issue per se is, though. You’re closer to the ground than I am, OK, but my impression from a distance is that what people are responding to is the mood and the righteousness, not the plan or the prescription. Martin O’Malley tried to run as the alternative to Clinton and got no traction because he’s just too salesmanlike (IMHO). He made similar arguments to Sanders, didn’t he? But he doesn’t epitomize the Mad As Hell quality that Bernie Sanders does. If that’s what’s clicking with people, Pissed Off Bernie Sanders should be able to galvanize pissed off young voters for people who aren’t Bernie Sanders. Isn’t that the whole point of the “political revolution” anyway, to show up and speak up and usher in a wave of politicians who believe in what you believe even if they aren’t Bernie Sanders the idiosyncratic individual?
FlipYrWhig
@different-church-lady: Fair enough, but I really think it’s quixotic to design a political strategy around wooing the other side’s diehards. I don’t think the Trump vote is ripe for the picking with a properly constructed class-based appeal. Even if the people and forces they blame for their sentiments of decline and immiseration include bosses and Wall Street, they also blame people from minority populations and the Democrats who they think coddle them.
Amir Khalid
@Paul in KY:
It can be sexually transmitted, presumably through hetero sex. So a man could be involved in spreading it to his partner and their child.
Kay
@FlipYrWhig:
Because it’s not about a plan or a prescription.
This dispute isn’t new in the Democratic Party. I read your comments. I know you’re aware of the various fights and factions. This is a version of “don’t give me a 15 point plan, give me some broad organizing principle or set of beliefs”.
A broad organizing principle or set of beliefs are not incidental, touchy-feely “extras” in a political Party. They are the reason political Parties (supposedly) exist. They are the heart of the thing. People don’t ally with organizations based on a transactional analysis centered around “what works”. That’s a job, not a voluntary affinity choice.
Paul in KY
@Nate Dawg: It’s to try and inoculate themselves from Repub ads painting them as crazed, doper, weathermen (cause you know they were all getting high when they were planning their bombings). You know, those ads will still be written, no matter what they say about weed.
FlipYrWhig
@Kay: That all rings true, except that IMHO there really is a strain — usually characterized as “moderates” — that likes to be able to say “my side is the smart, rational, plan-making side, not like your side’s gut feelings and quick tempers.” But at any rate I don’t really see why the Sanders voter would just disappear into the woodwork if there were no Bernie Sanders running, or lose interest in Bernie Sanders if Bernie were simply telling her to vote for someone else instead of him, which is what you seemed to be suggesting. If “political revolution” is a real thing it has to be transferable to other candidates and other personalities, no?
Betty Cracker
@Paul in KY: Nothing too serious, from what I’ve read: low-grade fever, rash and achy joints for a few days. It’s easily overcome if you’re not pregnant.
@FlipYrWhig:
My anecdata says different, but I agree that population among the Trumpenproletariat may be too small to bother with.
Kay
@FlipYrWhig:
I think Clinton isn’t connecting with certain groups because she’s stringing together this list of Things We All Believe In but there’s no over-all coherence, no organizing connection.
They aren’t going to do that by themselves. They aren’t going to take early childhood ed and paid leave and workers sharing in profits and put that together as “she cares about People Like Us”.
The wonkier Democrats use this term that drives me fucking nuts- “agnostic”. It’s a way to put yourself above the fray – “I focus on What Works!” I think people hear that as “they don’t believe in anything, they don’t value anything, everything is on the table”.
Also? “Advocate” is the opposite of “agnostic”. Advocates take a side. I don’t know- do you know any “agnostics” who are great and passionate advocates? I don’t.
Paul in KY
@mclaren: Agree she should just be more open about it & not try & caveat. They offered, I accepted.
Paul in KY
@Omnes Omnibus: It is a ‘personal’ charity. Not like she gave it to Red Cross.
Captcha
@Paul in KY: God, I hope the funds weren’t as mismanaged as they would have been if she’d donated it to the Red Cross. Might as well set it on fire and let some natural disaster victims warm themselves by the glow.
Captcha
@Paul in KY: Usually not, although there’s a potential for “flu-like symptoms.” However, it’s possibly sexually transmitted, so if you’re getting it on with someone of child-bearing age and inclination there might be an issue.
Paul in KY
@Kay: Good point, Kay.
Kay
@FlipYrWhig:
I don’t think we know yet whether Hillary Clinton can go from “what works/agnostic” to “advocate”. She’s been an advocate, in real life. She knows what that is and chose to be one. I think she has yet to reveal who she really is, but I am hopeful that what she really is is an advocate- a believer- because I think that’s what Democrats want. The campaigns are so long I do think we get a sense of what and who these people are. If that’s what she is it will come out. I see flashes of it, but she has that (justified) hesitancy and caution to where I really almost long for her to just COME OUT.
Paul in KY
@Amir Khalid: Thanks for answer, Amir! Hope your finger is healing.
Paul in KY
@Betty Cracker: Appreciate your answer too, Betty!