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Good lord, these people are nuts.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

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I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

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Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

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Biden: Oh no. We’ve upset Big Pharma again.

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Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Fani Willis claps back at Trump chihuahua, Jim Jordan.

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Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Breaking News: Possible (Probable?) 5th North Korean Nuclear Test

Breaking News: Possible (Probable?) 5th North Korean Nuclear Test

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slide02

(3rd Stage of an Underground Nuclear Test)

The BBC, and other, news outlets are reporting that North Korean has appeared to have conducted its 5th nuclear test. An artificial earthquake, measuring 5.3 on the Richter Scale, was recorded near its Punggye-ri testing site. The reporting on this is clearly going to change over the next 24-72 hours, so stay tuned.

My professional opinion, with the caveat that I’m not a North Korean specialist and that North Korea epitomizes the International Relations phrase “the black box of the state” and is almost completely opaque to outside observation, is that the North Koreans treat their engagement with the outside world the way a young child does with its parents. I’m not trying to infantilize the North Koreans, their culture, their society, or their leadership, but I think there’s a clear pattern. When something is going on that involves their patron China interacting with the US or other world powers or its regional competitors, especially South Korea, interacting with the US or other world powers, then the North Koreans act out to get attention. And with the ASEAN Summit winding down in Laos and coming on the heels of the G20 summit in China, North Korea once again acts out and once again the whole world turns and gives it attention. Again, this reporting will change and/or solidify over the next 24-72 hours so more to follow.

Update at 12:50 AM EST:

Soonergrunt has let us know in comments that the Independent NK News has confirmed the test:

NK live broadcast says: NK conducted nuclear test to check power of nuclear warhead. No radioactive leakages.

 

 

Reader Interactions

84Comments

  1. 1.

    Peale

    But if there were one culture, society and leadership you would belittle, which would that be. I mean North Korea has to be near the top, doesn’t it?

  3. 3.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Cheryl Rofer, who generally knows what she is talking about, says that the current evidence indicates a test. Details to follow.

  5. 5.

    eemom

    Something I really, really hate about discussions of North Korea, of which I’m sad to say this post is no exception, is the usage of the phrase “the North Koreans,” and other implications that the nation somehow functions as a unified entity…..instead of a brutal dictatorship in which 25 million North Koreans live in starvation, oppression, and the constant threat of imprisonment in concentration camps where conditions are, without exaggeration, comparable to those in Nazi Germany.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    @eemom: When the Iranian leadership does something we don’t like we refer to them as the Iranians. Same for the Saudis. And the Syrians. And the Chechens. And a whole host of other governments that are tyrannical or despotic or dictatorial or absolute monarchies. It isn’t a condemnation of everyone in that state and society, nor does it diminish just how bad for the state and society those governments are.

  14. 14.

    Anoniminous

    @Peale:

    Small. Fat Man was the one dropped on Hiroshima and it was 20-22 kilotonnes. The most power was a USSR test of 50,000 kilotonnes aka 50 megatonnes.

  16. 16.

    eemom

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Sorry, I’m not persuaded. North Korea is unique in being one of the most horrific places on earth….about which nobody gives a shit.

    None of the examples you present are even remotely comparable. And just btw, referring to “the Syrians” as an entity is something even the emmessemmbots haven’t done in quite a while.

  17. 17.

    Aleta

    The test has been expected; they’ve been preparing the site for a couple of years and the media was told 5-6 months ago that we’d been watching the preparations.

  18. 18.

    Peale

    @Anoniminous: not that I wouldn’t be concerned because 10 is large enough to destroy a large part of Seoul, but it’s still small. But is smaller actually scarier because it may be easier to deliver? Or because one needs a 10 kilotonne plutonium bomb to build a much more powerful hydrogen bomb?

  21. 21.

    hovercraft

    Didn’t Little Kim say last week that he was going to do something to get the worlds attention this week while the summits were going on as a “show of strength”?
    David Frum was on O’Donnell earlier spouting bullshit about Trump distracting us from all the terrible foreign policy disasters Obama is leaving behind, including this.
    This psycho is completely out of control, and China seems to be losing leverage over him.

  22. 22.

    eemom

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Point not taken, and I regret to see that you miss my point. Again, North Korea is qualitatively different from anyplace else on earth. And again, the most appalling thing of all is that nobody gives a shit about the Nazi-esque horrors that have gone on there unchecked for more than 50 years. To refer to 25 million agonized, terrorized people as a collective nation is an obscenity.

  31. 31.

    Major Major Major Major

    @eemom: When they talk about Beijing doing something they aren’t talking about the buildings. Come on, this is how we refer to countries as political entities.

    ETA: We talked about literal Nazis as “the Germans”. Mao et al. was “the Chinese”.

  32. 32.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @amk:

    Breaking: trump claims kim is a better leader than putin. also. too. kim ‘praised’ him once.

    You think you’re joking, right?

    “You’ve got to give him credit,” Mr Trump said. “How many young guys — he was like 26 or 25 when his father died — take over these tough generals, and all of a sudden — you know, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it. How does he do that?

    “Even though it is a culture, and it’s a cultural thing, he goes in, he takes over, he’s the boss. It’s incredible.

    “He wiped out the uncle, he wiped out this one, that one. This guy doesn’t play games and we can’t play games with him. Because he really does have missiles and he really does have nukes.”

  33. 33.

    eemom

    @redshirt:

    No. I just don’t want the state of that place to be trivialized.

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Well, I’d say fuck you, asshole….but that seems excessive even to me. I’m glad you think this is all about my “evening umbrage,” since the possibility that I feel strongly about this particular issue obviously is entitled to no consideration whatsoever. Hey, in your next response, don’t forget to mention that I’m too EMOTIONAL to comment coherently.

  34. 34.

    Peale

    @hovercraft: a combination of bad parenting and Swiss Boarding school (seriously, Swiss Boarding School must be an awful place to send kids to learn values and self restraint. And healthy life habits).

  38. 38.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Adam L Silverman: oh, certainly. But Xinhua and People’s Daily were fairly quick to go with “probable” — outward-facing, of course, but a sign that Beijing wasn’t going to stop that reporting under their name.

  40. 40.

    hovercraft

    @Peale:
    He’s just Trump given absolute power from a young age. And since he is the youngest (of I think 3 sons), I’m thinking that he may also be trying to work out some other issues as well.

  41. 41.

    Amir Khalid

    @hovercraft:
    The Kims are a unique family: they’re the only dynasty of absolute monarchs in all of Communism. That makes them hard to figure out in some ways, I imagine.

  43. 43.

    Adam L Silverman

    @eemom: I don’t think you’re too emotional, I was being a smartass. I apologize for not including the sarc tags: //. I think you’re making something out of nothing. You’ve no idea that I’ve made inputs to the appropriate folks about the socio-cultural concerns that will need to be accounted for in contingency planning for when the North Korean government of the Kim family eventually falls, and it will eventually, so that we can successfully, in conjunction with a host of partners, conduct successful humanitarian assistance among an incredibly impoverished, traumatized, and given the nature of propaganda used by the North Korean government on the North Korean population what is likely to be a highly suspicious and possibly even hostile host country population. I didn’t use North Koreans because I had nothing better to do. I used North Koreans and North Korea because those are the terms I use in my professional work. Doing so isn’t a sign of apathy or disinterest or a failure of empathy.

  44. 44.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hovercraft: I’d settle for a GoFundMe site to just send him back to Canada where he came from. I’m pretty sure that if we do that, its a crime against humanity. Between him and Krauthammer I am convinced that we need a wall along that northern border!

  46. 46.

    eemom

    @Amir Khalid:

    Um, et tu Brute? No, I am not.

    You see this “bit of shorthand” all the time in reporting about North Korea. “The reclusive nation,” and other bullshit appellations that make it seem like that nation is one big, happy, reclusive family….thereby reinforcing the useful ignorance of the rest of the world about exactly what that “nation” consists of.

    I’m disappointed that you don’t get that.

  48. 48.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Aleta: Yup.

    On the size, no links but my recollection is that the NK, Indian and Pakistan tests have all been in < 10kT yield range. Apparently, getting above that is difficult with the designs they have.

    Kim has been claiming they have a "hydrogen" bomb for months, so if the yield on this test is higher than the previous ones, that might be a sign that they’ve made some progress with a boosted weapon. Reuters is reporting that someone is claiming it was in the 20-30 kT range with others saying above 10kT. Or it might indicate that it’s simply a larger non-boosted weapon (which would be harder to put on a missile).

    It’s not good news, but it’s nothing to panic about.

    Obama was saying just yesterday, IIRC, that there’s talk of tightening the NK sanctions over their recent missile tests. This bomb test will likely make new sanctions even more likely (probably just in time for winter…).

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  50. 50.

    hovercraft

    @Amir Khalid:
    I’m pretty ignorant about the history of North Korea, it’s something I’d like to read up on and see how the L’ll Kim’s came to be such a unique phenomena.

  51. 51.

    Amir Khalid

    @eemom:
    i have seen that bit of shorthand used to describe the leadership (or some other subgroup) of pretty much every nation on Earth, including yours and mine, so I tend not to get bothered about it.

  52. 52.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @eemom: Your brush is rather broad tonight.

    AK is right that it’s conventional shorthand used in reporting.

    We all know that NK is a prison camp and that only a relative handful of people have any power to determine anything that goes on there.

    But it’s the same kind of reporting as “The White House says” or “Russia buzzed US ships” or “Iran imprisoned protesters” or …

    There are much more important things to get upset about than short-hand like this, IMO.

    YMMV.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  53. 53.

    Major Major Major Major

    @eemom: You see it all the time because that’s how we talk about countries in English. We even specifically covered, in my 9th grade history class, how in journalistic and academic practice you refer to the rulers of a country with the demonym of the whole country, or else use the capital city as a metonymy.

  54. 54.

    hovercraft

    @Adam L Silverman:
    It’s too close and since we don’t have a Northern wall, he could sneak back in very easily. No China is the way to go, and then perhaps he can be taken on a tour of the border area, and ‘accidentally’ cross over.

  57. 57.

    pseudonymous in nc

    Official announcement on NK state TV; POTUS & AF1 over Midwest heading back to DC from Laos.

  61. 61.

    Tissue Thin Pseudonym

    @eemom: Yes, because clearly you’re the only one who has any idea what’s going on in North Korea. Since you seem so concerned that someone might be telling you that you’re too emotional to comment, I’ll limit myself to saying that you’re being a colossal dick.

  62. 62.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Adam L Silverman: For my sins, I follow Swift on Security on Twitter and she RTed the people doing iAWACS, which is a curious combination of DEFCON paranoia and 21st century scrying over flight radar and foreign feeds.

    (I know, it’s all light-hearted ribbing. I wish I wasn’t quite so tired.)

  63. 63.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    One of my hobby-horses is that nuclear weapons is 70+ year old technology. Any reasonably modern country that decides they want to have one can get one. The way to prevent them from getting one is through diplomacy, etc.

    If we do increase sanctions on NK, it should be accompanied by an small opening so that we can encourage Kim and the rest to pursue a different path.

    I’m sure Obama understands this. It seems clear that Bill Clinton understood this. Maybe Hillary will find a way to change the dynamic. Wouldn’t that be a hoot!

    “War-monger Hillary Clinton does what no man could: De-nuclearizes the Korean Peninsula and to officially ends the Korean War. But what about her e-mails?”

    :-?

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  67. 67.

    inventor

    I was once on a flight from (I think) Vienna to Bahrain and I was seated among a soccer team from Lebanon. They were a friendly, chatty bunch who told stories of their recent trip to Pyongyang to play the N.K. national team.

    They told of being taken to sad looking Potemkin villages “like Disneyland, but bad and ugly” and to food shops with empty shelves. They all agreed that they were very happy to leave.

  68. 68.

    George Vreeland Hill

    North Korea is getting good at these nuclear launches.
    Of course, the world will keep sitting and do nothing.
    The clock is ticking.

    George Vreeland Hill

  69. 69.

    mike in dc

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Thanks to that wacky Dr. Teller, the US briefly entertained proposals for weapons as large as 1000 megatons(Project Gnomon) and 10000 megatons(Project Sundial). The 10 gigaton proposal’s delivery system was simply “backyard”(detonate in place) and it would have been “salted” with cobalt(in order to spread radioactive cobalt-60 across the surface of the planet). Truly a doomsday device. Underwater devices of extreme yields were also contemplated by both powers(the idea being you could generate a massive tsunami of irradiated seawater off the coast of your enemy).

  70. 70.

    trollhattan

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
    My (limited) understanding is their challenge is in miniturizing, not increasing yield, so that they can deliver them via missile. As the Japanese well know, their missile program continues apace, and they’ve also sent payloads into orbit.

  71. 71.

    daveNYC

    Reliability is a big problem with their missile program fortunately, and shrinking a nuke enough to get it on a missile takes some serious work and quality control.

    Which is great, because NK is messed up enough that they’d probably try and attempt nuclear blackmail, and there’s zero good ways to deal with that.

  72. 72.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Omnes Omnibus: Twitter is the place to follow this sort of news as it breaks. There are a number of people across the globe – Seoul, Vienna, Monterey (CA), New Mexico – who discuss the data as they come in. We speculate mildly, and some wisecrack. Here’s a list to start with.

    The coverage on Twitter is so good that I just realized this morning that yes, I probably should write a blog post.

    Bottom line for now? Yes, it was a test, bigger than the last. The pattern looks like they are trying to perfect a particular design. There seems to have been some early indication that a test was coming, and the US has planes flying to pick up atmospheric indicators. Unfortunately, the North Koreans have been very good at containing earlier tests, so nobody is holding their breath for results from that. The atmospheric indicators would show some things about the bomb design. The North Koreans are claiming that they are now ready to mount this type of warhead on the missiles they’ve been testing lately, but they often claim more than they’ve got. They also claim they can produce them in quantity. More to come.

  73. 73.

    JGabriel

    Adam Silverman:

    An artificial earthquake, measuring 5.3 on the Richter Scale, was recorded near its Punggye-ri testing site.

    Is that the one located on (or near) an earthquake fault line?

    I seem to remember that the first NK test yielded a richter scale measure commenurate with an approximately 0.5-2 kiloton bomb – for reference, the first US nuclear bomb was about 15 kilotons – leaving the rest of the world to wonder whether NK’s test failed, only partially succeeded, succeeded, or was just faked.

    And the second test, IIRC, was purposefully set off near a fault, making it look bigger, but masking what the real strength of the blast was – and again, leaving it in doubt whether they’d failed, succeeded, or faked it.

  76. 76.

    Uncle Cosmo

    Dead thread, but just FTR:

    25 years ago I went through the USAF Museum at Wright-Patterson AFB outside Dayton. One of the more impressive exhibits was a B-36; you could walk underneath & look up into its monstrous bombbay. On the floor beneath the open doors, looking ready to be hauled up inside, was a replica Mark-17 H-bomb with a yield of 10-15 megatons: “25 ft (7.6 m) long, 5 ft (1.5 m) in diameter, and weighing 42,000 lb (19,000 kg), the heaviest and bulkiest American aerial nuclear bomb ever.”

    You’d need a heavy-lift launch vehicle to throw a Mark-17 over intercontinental distances. But it would fit right nice into a 40-foot shipping container. And if they can figure out a way to get one of those on board a ship bound for a US port, I don’t think we have the security in place to stop it before it docks. And once nestled on a semi…

    Want to decapitate the US Government? Paint it with Hang Sen or Samsung or Maersk livery & ship it into the Port of Baltimore. DC is an hour southwest on I-95. If Port security tumbles to its presence before it’s transferred (highly unlikely IMHO), detonate it there for a consolation prize of >500,000 deaths & complete disruption of East Coast transport infrastructure.

    Hunched over my PC at the north side of a windowless full basement, in a fairly solid rowhouse far enough over a slight hill to be out of line-of-sight, at roughly the 5 psi overpressure line for a blast centered on the Dundalk or Curtis Bay Marine Terminals, I might actually survive that…long enough to envy the dead, probably…

    It doesn’t keep me up at night, but the possibility is never all that far from my consciousness.

  79. 79.

    Peter

    @Uncle Cosmo: Okay, Tom Clancy.

    @eemom: It’s not that people don’t give a shit, it’s that what the fuck are we supposed to do about it? North Korea is completely cut off from the world. We don’t trade with them, we don’t have diplomatic relations with them, we can’t communicate with their citizens and they can’t communicate with us. We can’t even go to war with them without possibly kicking off World War Three: This Time With Nukes. No western government has even the slightest bit of leverage over the Kims, so there’s no point lobbying the government to do anything about them. They don’t give a shit. The only state that might be able to get the North Korean government to change its behavior is China, but it’s in China’s interests to keep propping the Kims up, because when their government falls there’s going to be millions of refugees streaming across the border into China, and they don’t want to have to deal with that shit.

    North Korea is a hellhole. It’s absurdly bad. I’m talking Republic of Friend bad. It is an ongoing humanitarian crisis. But it’s one that nobody can do anything about. So what do you propose we do differently?

  81. 81.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: If you write a post and want it posted here, send it to me and I’ll put it up as a guest post. Also, keep pinging Cole like we discussed several months ago!

  83. 83.

    eemom

    Maybe my point would have been clearer if I’d just quoted this right up front:

    I’m not trying to infantilize the North Koreans, their culture, their society, or their leadership

    It just doesn’t get any more tone deaf than that.

    @Tissue Thin Pseudonym:

    Go fuck yourself with your itty bitty one.

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