The National Hurricane Center’s 5:00 PM EDT updates posted just under an hour ago. The advisory went first as it takes a while to update the maps and graphics. Here’s their static image, 3 day forecast with warnings and the cone for Irma:
The public advisory can be found here.
And the interactive forecast map with warnings and cones can be found at this link.
Just a very quick comment on what we’re seeing going on. The first thing I learned working with a retired Navy captain at USAWC was that if you want more power out of your engine, you add heat. We’ve added heat to the oceans. We’ve added heat to the atmosphere. As a result the engine is generating more power. And that’s why the forecast track wobbled east to west and then back a bit over the past 12 hours. Because we’ve got more power in the system than we’ve ever had the only thing anyone knows for sure is that Cuba is going to take a pounding. What is uncertain is when it will make the hard right turn that’s been expected and forecast.
So if you’re in the potential path, keep checking the forecast updates! Remember, yesterday this thing was supposed to hit Jacksonville sometimes on Monday. This morning Atlanta on Tuesday. Now it’s just west of Atlanta. So there’s a lot of variance in the forecast even as the models are in agreement.
If you’re on the east side of this storm and you’ve got time to still do so: GET OUT!!!!
If you’re currently on the west side of the storm finish your preparations. keep monitoring the forecast track, and if the forecast shifts to the west, GET OUT!!!!
Stay safe. And remember to hydrate!
dmsilev
The one thing people in that zone won’t be short of is water. Unfortunately.
(drinkable water might be a different story. But there will be plenty of water)
Adam L Silverman
Before anyone asks:
1) Other than the last load of laundry, which I’m putting up in five minutes, all of our prep is done. Regardless of if we stay or go.
2) We have a booking at a long term inn and suites – 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, fully furnished kitchen, takes dogs/pets – in Baton Rouge.
3) We will make a go/no go decision after the 11 PM EDT forecast. If it continues to stay to the east of the Tampa Bay area we will sit tight. We are far enough inland that the 1-3 foot storm surge isn’t an issue for us. The total rain projections right now are 1-8 inches on Sunday and 1-3 inches on Monday. The biggest issue would be wind. If it jumps the forecast and the track takes it over the Tampa Bay area or into the gulf we will likely go. Provided, of course, that the new track doesn’t just take Irma through the Florida straits and across the Gulf towards New Orleans.
4) The latter is what my brother, who is a specialist in what hurricanes do to wetlands, is worried about. From talking to the meteorologists that he works with, they’re concerned that the low pressure system that was supposed to turn Irma north has dissipated/shifted because Irma took too long to get to its current position. Without that low to steer it there may be no turn at all. Or a very late turn. And, of course, Irma is now big enough to essentially create her own weather. So… We wait, we watch, we follow the plan.
HyperSphericalCow
Also more water coming off the oceans, which seems to be a contributing factor to Harvey’s record-breaking rains.
ETA: removed some unfair remarks.
Major Major Major Major
For Mnem, via Clickhole:
Silver Lining: Hurricane Irma Could Be Strong Enough To Finally Power Walt Disney’s Lazarus Machine
Mnemosyne
Ahem.
“Don’t forget to hydrate.”
Most of my family is out of the way, except for the distant relative who is a sheriff’s deputy and so is required to run towards the danger. Hopefully she’ll be okay and not take any dumb risks.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: If you have to purify water and have no power, here’s the instruction:
https://www.epa.gov/ground-water-and-drinking-water/emergency-disinfection-drinking-water
Disinfect water using household bleach, if you can’t boil water. Only use regular, unscented chlorine bleach products that are suitable for disinfection and sanitization as indicated on the label. The label may say that the active ingredient contains 6 or 8.25% of sodium hypochlorite. Do not use scented, color safe, or bleaches with added cleaners.If water is cloudy, let it settle and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel, or coffee filter.
Locate a clean dropper from your medicine cabinet or emergency supply kit.
Locate a fresh liquid chlorine bleach or liquid chlorine bleach that is stored at room temperatures for less than one year.
Use the table below as a guide to decide the amount of bleach you should add to the water, for example, 8 drops of 6% bleach, or 6 drops of 8.25% bleach, to each gallon of water. Double the amount of bleach if the water is cloudy, colored, or very cold.Glass containers with droppers
Stir and let stand for 30 minutes. The water should have a slight chlorine odor. If it doesn’t, repeat the dosage and let stand for another 15 minutes before use.
If the chlorine taste is too strong, pour the water from one clean container to another and let it stand for a few hours before use.
Volume of Water Amount of 6% Bleach to Add* Amount of 8.25% Bleach to Add*
1 quart/liter 2 drops 2 drops
1 gallon 8 drops 6 drops
2 gallons 16 drops (1/4 tsp) 12 drops (1/8 teaspoon)
4 gallons 1/3 teaspoon 1/4 teaspoon
8 gallons 2/3 teaspoon 1/2 teaspoon
*Bleach may contain 6 or 8.25% sodium hypochlorite.
Adam L Silverman
@HyperSphericalCow: We thank you for your civility. It is a refreshing change around these parts.
Adam L Silverman
@Mnemosyne: We’ll keep good thoughts. For your cousin and everyone else.
Baud
Stay safe, Florida Juicers.
HeartlandLiberal
“Remember to hydrate”. Reminds me of an Australian dashcam video I watched last week, titled something “Tragic auto accident.” Dash cam vehicle is following a truck that takes a sharp right, and a flat of beer cases fall off, dashed and broken on the ground. Oh, the humanity!
geg6
I feel for all you Floridians, but if you want to head north, our weather forecast here in Western PA is spectacular!
Just saw one of my high school classmates interviewed on local tv news. She had her flight from FL booked months ago for our 40th reunion but it was apparently a hellish nightmare getting to and through the airport to get here. She thinks hers was the last flight before they started cancelling flights.
Mnemosyne
@Major Major Major Major:
Oh, I know that story’s fake, because we keep Walt’s head in the vaults at my office.
Wait. Crap. I wasn’t supposed to say that.
Kathleen
Praying for safety for Juicers and their loved ones. Glad to hear that Adam has a plan, Mustang Bobby is settled and Betty in the islands checked in.
My daughter, SIL and 2 grand kids are in Tampa. They are not in an Evacuation Zone. She tweeted picture of them getting the shutters installed and praised the neighbors for pitching in and helping each other. My oldest grandson, who runs a roller coaster at Busch Gardens, was told to report at 5pm on Saturday and work until midnight. Ay yi yi.
I trying to channel worries into constructive energy but it’s not working too well. Almost in tears.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman:
I’m praying for everyone!
Cermet
For any standard trolls reading BJ, show us liberals what foolish people we really are when we run away from this “fake” news storm; please, just go to Florida and head south to any convent ocean shore and show us what real republicans are capable of doing … .
Phylllis
Waiting for Gov. McMaster to begin his scheduled 6 pm briefing. He’s yet to start one on time, which is getting rather annoying. The forecast now has the storm east of us, but getting 40-50 mph winds and 4-7 inches of rain. Trees that were weakened during Matthew will probably come down with this storm.
Immanentize
As OzarkHillbilly so aptly observed: “Straight up the peni$.”
“Good Luck everyone and have a great time. You are all amazing people.”
Immanentize
@Cermet: Like Limbaugh
Immanentize
@Mnemosyne: I keep Walt’s vault in my head.
SiubhanDuinne
So, I see EPA Administrator Scott Fucking Pruitt thinks it’s “insensitive” to Floridians to talk about climate change right now.
Exactly when would be a good time to discuss it, SFP?
HyperSphericalCow
At the same time it becomes OK to discuss gun control after a mass shooting.
Adam L Silverman
@Mnemosyne: You’ve said too much. Activate your exfil plan!
Steeplejack
@Adam L Silverman:
You’re in northern Florida, right?
Adam L Silverman
@Kathleen: I worked on the no longer in existence jungle cruise when I was in high school.
lollipopguild
@Mnemosyne: Walt is alive and well and living in the underground railroad tunnels that the Govment built with the help of the Alien Lizard people.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: I spoke to my good friend who was, until retirement, the USAWC chaplain this afternoon. He’s a now retired Catholic priest. He indicated he’s praying for us, but reminded me that he is in sales, not management.
schrodingers_cat
@SiubhanDuinne: Science doesn’t care for Pruitt’s feelings. Fuck him and other climate change deniers.
schrodingers_cat
@Mnemosyne: How was Hamilton?
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: West central Florida. I’m in NE Pinellas County. About 10 miles inland from the NW corner of Tampa Bay and about 12 miles or so from the Hillsborough County/Tampa line. As it stands now we’re west of the track. And should it stay that way we’ll hunker down and stay put. We’re too far from the bay for storm surge given the predictions. And the amount of rain isn’t too problematic. Basically we’ll be dealing with the wind effects on the backside of the storm.
TriassicSands
Jose has now reached Category 4 strength. That means that for the first time since records have been kept there are two hurricanes with winds in excess of 150mph.
It looks like Jose may hit Barbuda. Life is not fair.
The Pale Scot
Driving around Pinellas County today the radio reported multiple hurricanes, huge wild fires, 8.2 earthquakes, locusts in Trinidad. Millions of Rohingya refugees crowding Bangaldesh.
I think that covers just about everything……….. Oh yea… Trump
The theme song is Janelle Monáe’s Dance Apocalyptic
Of course
jacy
@Adam L Silverman:
Come to Baton Rouge — the weather is beautiful right now. I’ll buy you a beer! Or make you a home-cooked meal. With beer.
Whatever happens, thinking best thoughts for you and all the Florida juicers.
Adam L Silverman
@jacy: I’ll put a post up if we’re heading your way. Thanks for the offer but I’ll be evacing my Mom and the dogs with me. So probably not going to do much but hang out in the long term suite I’ve got booked.
Kathleen
@Adam L Silverman: @Adam L Silverman: I thought you were in South Florida, around Miami.
Jungle Ride at Busch Gardens? My grandson is senior in college (gasp).
Adam L Silverman
Would’ve been nice if Bloomberg ran this last week!
SiubhanDuinne
@HyperSphericalCow:
Yup. It’s the identical mindset.
Adam L Silverman
If you’re still in South Florida: GET OUT NOW!!!!!
debbie
Is Betty still around? She needs to see this. Seriously.
jacy
@Adam L Silverman:
Well, if you need some breathing room for the dogs, I have a huge fenced yard. Stay safe. :)
Adam L Silverman
@Kathleen: I did a masters in religion there, but that was the only two years I’ve lived south of the Tampa area. I grew up in Tampa, my Mom moved to Pinellas after my Dad died. My brother and his family live in Pinellas County as well. I’ve also lived in Gainesville, FL where I did my doctorate. My preference is to not live in Florida, however, the work is here at this time, so…
Adam L Silverman
@jacy: I appreciate it. I’ll let you know what we’re doing.
trollhattan
Stay smart and stay safe everybody. This storm is a bloody monster and my hope is she wanders off, given the remaining forecast uncertainties. Doesn’t look likely though, does it?
On the topic of heating the engine, consider this. (I see slackers–talkin’ to you, Eastern Washington!)
dmsilev
@Adam L Silverman: When agencies that are generally calm and sober suddenly start screaming RUN RUN, it’s best to take that advice very very seriously.
feebog
@Adam L Silverman:
I dunno, that track seems to keep edging closer to the West Coast every time I see it. I have a friend who lives about 30 miles inland from Tampa, so not too far from you. She seems to think they will be ok. Hoping she is right.
RSR
Dave had a phrase in a post a few days ago about grinding against the coast like a creep in the club and looks like that’s what Cuba’s getting.
Baud
@dmsilev: That’s why it’s important to stay calm and sober. So that when you freak out, it means something.
The Dangerman
Could this thing shift so far west the Eye Wall misses Florida entirely? Eye Wall is the worst winds, right (cut me slack here, it’s Friday, I’m in Cali, coffee was long ago, beer is now)?
HyperSphericalCow
@SiubhanDuinne: “Let’s not bicker and argue about who killed who!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKGjOE_7bYI
Gravenstone
@SiubhanDuinne: It’s the mass shooting paradigm – now is not an appropriate time to talk about the reasons for this tragic event that no one could have foreseen.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: What? No Jungle Cruise?
My next door neighbor in my dorm freshman year worked on the Jungle Cruise, he said it was the best job at Disneyland.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: Yep.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Should you decide “go,” you’ve factored in the eleventy billion other people who will be trying to evacuate at the same time, correct?
Betty Cracker
@debbie: Saw that on Twitter earlier. Hilarious! I just wonder how the hell they caught them. Chickens are fast! Maybe they snuck up on them roosting. ?
Adam L Silverman
@feebog: 30 miles inland from Tampa is east. I’m to the west of Tampa. Your friend is much closer to the storm track than I am.
Baud
@Betty Cracker: Keep us posted to the extent you have power.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman:
You live in the Gulf of Mexico?
ARoomWithAMoose
@The Dangerman: @The Dangerman:
If it shifts far enough west to rake the west coast of FL with the center of the storm over water, it will keep it’s strength longer. As far as peak winds, typically they are on the right front quarter of the eyewall, as the “forward” motion of the storm system adds to the wind speed in the counter clockwise rotation of the storm. The heaviest rain is typically there too. Every one of these storms presents a little differently. I remember one of the 2004 storms heading east to west just north of Tampa (which put North Tampa on the “left side” of the storm), the winds got stronger once the storm center had passed and was near the gulf.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
So that was what you looked like way back then.
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: There is some concern that it doesn’t turn at all, just goes straight west into the Gulf and then hits anywhere on the Gulf Coast. At that point Everyone from Houston to Tampa is going to be in harms way until the track is reestablished.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Betty has the keys here, she always has power.
TenguPhule
@Baud:
They’re doing amazing things with intelligent dolphins these days.
scav
@The Pale Scot: There’s also the largest solar flare in a decade or so.
Omnes Omnibus
@?BillinGlendaleCA: As much as Ivanka?
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: You don’t want to go unless you have to go so that everyone else on the road has time to move through. We’ve kept this in mind and play on taking state roads to get to where we need to. Will ad a bit of time, but they’ll not be gridlocked.
Baud
@TenguPhule: Anything is an improvement over the Republican Party.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: Absolutely. More even.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: No, I live in Pinellas County, the one Florida county directly to the west of Tampa.
TenguPhule
@TriassicSands:
I preferred the Perfect Storm as a CGI movie.
TenguPhule
@Baud:
Baud 2020: “YES, NOW ITS TIME TO PANIC!!!”
Kathleen
@Adam L Silverman: So you are “Florida Man”! My fam has been down there for 12 years and finally gave up on asking me to move down there. Never been a fan, and I’m especially glad in times like this.
At what school did you get your masters of religion?
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: That doesn’t look safe at all.
Baud
@TenguPhule:. I’m saving that for Inauguration Day.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
And I’m going to wager that absolutely nobody now stuck on the highway there was following that rule of thumb.
ARoomWithAMoose
The lead feeder bands of Irma are just now showing up on Key West’s and Miami’s composit radar.
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states-regional/fl/key-west/animated
TenguPhule
@Baud:
Not “BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! KNEEL BEFORE
ZodBAUD!!!”?The Dangerman
@Adam L Silverman:
So, good for Florida, but that sounds like maximal suckage because it should rebuild strength over open water, yes?
Major Major Major Major
@Baud: dolphins don’t have very good personalities, you know.
Steeplejack
Chris Matthews excitedly explaining that the Florida keys are little tiny islands in the ocean. Unprotected! Oh, the humanity!
LurkerNoLonger
@SiubhanDuinne: I think Pruitt means “insensitive” as in “don’t bring it up now because it totally destroys all of my bullshit and makes me look like a fucking idiot.”
TenguPhule
We can’t leave Florida, but we can’t stay either. Help us!
dmsilev
@TenguPhule: That seems more appropriate for a State of the Union address.
Mnemosyne
@schrodingers_cat:
Sorry, I had to wander away to do work stuff. Hamilton was awesome and well worth the wait. Oddly, I didn’t cry quite as much as I expected to during the sad parts. There was too much to watch that was happening at the same time.
MomSense
Remind me never to complain about blizzards again. I can’t imagine how one prepares for a storm like Irma. Please take care of yourselves Florida juicers. And don’t forget to check in and let us know you’re ok. This mother is worrying about all of you!
Mnemosyne
@LurkerNoLonger:
Yep. Pruitt means, How can you guys be so mmmmeeeeaaaaannnn to poor widdle me?!?!?
Betty Cracker
@Baud: I shall, good sir. I am also on Twitter at @bettycrackerfl if anyone cares to follow me at that hive of scum and villainy.
Steeplejack
@Omnes Omnibus:
Betty is Jewish?
Baud
@Major Major Major Major: But they thanked us for all the fish. Seems cordial.
@Betty Cracker: I follow you but I haven’t been on Twitter for over a year.
TenguPhule
U.S. warplanes call off surveillance of an ISIS convoy, at Russia’s request
W T F.
Hey, Adam, has this ever happened before? Is this normal?
chris
Listened to this guy who is staying on or near Key West. Hope he makes it.
Also this looks interesting. Are we fucked? Decoding the resistance to climate change. CBC Ideas has been going for a very long time. I used to be a regular listener but something seems to have interfered with that. wonder what it could be?
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman:
lol
RoonieRoo
When this thing hits, can we have a check-in post for the Juicers in the path that stays near the top or keeps getting updated? Do we know which juicers are in the path? We only got sideswiped by Harvey (9 inches with 50 mph winds) while my sister north of Houston is dealing with the damage to her clinic. The rest of my family are all in the West getting choked by smoke. I’m feeling slightly punch drunk on these disasters.
lollipopguild
@TenguPhule: “When in fear and when in doubt, run in circles scream and shout!”
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Isn’t this an engineering problem?
MomSense
@The Pale Scot:
Oooooh, good song.
David Anderson
@RoonieRoo: already scheduled
David Anderson
@RoonieRoo: already scheduled
Jim, Foolish Literalist
sounds like someone’s been following fake news from the manatees. I have it on good authority that dolphins are god’s angels, always at hand to save one of His children
ETA: edited because dammit
efgoldman
@Adam L Silverman: I know that you are logical, and physically prepared, and I think probably a natural leader. People like you can feel invulnerable, which brings out the inevitable Polonius in me.
So I’ll repeat what I said last night: Be safe. No property is worth it.
Also for what it’s worth, Shabat shalom.
TenguPhule
@efgoldman:
So you’re the one responsible for all those Russians mysteriously dropping dead like flies.
TenguPhule
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
There’s something untrustworthy about those peaceful hippy vegans.
Major Major Major Major
@TenguPhule: They have nipples in their armpits, you know.
Baud
@Major Major Major Major: Vegans?
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Adam L Silverman:
Good luck and stay safe. That goes for anyone in the path of this hurricane.
Major Major Major Major
@Baud: sure.
Matt McIrvin
The added heat in the system is (probably) why this fucker is a Cat 5. The wobbling track, though? That’s just garden-variety scientific uncertainty. It’s all within the cone, and those cones used to be wider years ago, before the models were as good as they are now. I’ve been amazed at how successful the track predictions have been so far.
Steeplejack
Venting my random concerns . . .
I’m glad Mustang Bobby has removed himself to his friends’ place in Pinecrest, but that’s still only a couple of miles inland and, according to Wikipedia, three feet above sea level. I hope the storm surge doesn’t reach him.
Also, commenter Betty in the Caribbean last checked in on Tuesday (that I saw), which I think was actually before Irma was going to pass by her location. So I hope she is okay.
Not to go all “back in my day,” but back in the day I rode out some bad hurricanes in Mobile. What these tough-guy “I’m not scared of no hurricane” people don’t realize is that, even if your place comes through untouched and pristine, you’re going to be inhabiting a landscape where nothing works. Other people’s houses have been damaged. The streets are blocked with debris, downed power lines and repair trucks. And, even if you can get anywhere, there’s nothing in the stores or they’re closed because their power has been out (thus nuking everything that was in a cold case, for example). So good luck with all that.
On the other hand, I really feel for the large number of people who realistically cannot evacuate. This country, just below the surface, is a lot poorer than we would like to think, and there are huge numbers of people who don’t have the ability to pick up and evacuate, no matter how desperately they want to. We’ve all read the stories about the large percentage of Americans who couldn’t handle an unexpected $400 emergency. Well, a hurricane evacuation certainly qualifies.
So what’s left? Thoughts and prayers™ to everyone in Irma’s path, I guess. (Not snark, frustration.)
The Pale Scot
@scav:
I meant to include that when I was driving.
What’s the likelihood of EMP type event that knocks out coms and satellites right before two 150 mph storms hit?
Adam L Silverman
@Kathleen: FIU. Has an excellent religious studies program. I was the first graduate from the masters program.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: not for the keys or south Florida
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: some yes, some no
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: yep and it’s path could be anywhere from Florida to Texas to Mexico.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: not that I’m aware. I know that the Russians were making an issue of it as an information op accusing us of protecting ISIS.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: perhaps
The Moar You Know
What’s the likelihood of EMP type event that knocks out coms and satellites right before two 150 mph storms hit?
The Pale Scot: Zero. Seriously.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: if I need to get my Mom and dogs out of the area I will. My brother and I have a plan and we’re working it.
Elie
@Steeplejack:
Good comment.
I just saw on CNN that the update is that Irma will be a Cat 5 when she hits the Keys. Also, she is leaning west instead of east… This is pretty terrifying and as has been said numerous times, my prayers and good wishes go with everyone in its path — which is essentially all of FL
Another Scott
Is it late enough for the physicist pedant to post? No? Ok.
Kinda-sorta.
Just adding heat glosses over some things.
Heat engines require differences in temperature. Carnot worked all this out a long time ago.
That’s why the “heat death of the universe” is a bad thing. Without temperature differences, no work can be done. The temperature doesn’t have to fall to zero – it just has to be uniform (or more correctly, the temperature difference between the hot and cold reservoirs in a Carnot heat engine becomes too small to do any useful work).
It’s also one (but only one) reason why one generally wants to have the coolest intake air temperature possible in high-performance engines. Big temperature differences give the possibility of big work done.
It’s a minor thing, but pedants live for minor things. ;-)
Stay safe, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
TenguPhule
@Another Scott:
On. Its live *on* minor things.
TS
@TenguPhule: From your link – this is what you need for evacuation to succeed
The last thing we need are demands that we leave. Mandatory evacuation could do more harm than Irma herself. Scott has the best of intentions, but you can’t tell millions upon millions of people to evacuate without giving them any real way to do so. Two major highways just won’t cut it for that parade of refugees.
Meaningful evacuation would have meant public transport, safe shelters along the way, medical help and facilities throughout, and safe shelter, food, water and sanitary supplies on the other side of it all. For free. Because evacuating is expensive: You need gas and a reliable vehicle.
TenguPhule
@TS: Yeah, we used to have something called the Civil Service that did things like that.
Tarragon
@Adam L Silverman: really?
http://junglecrews.podbean.com/p/about/
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: I wasn’t just trying to make sure you had an opportunity to strut your stuff.
Adam L Silverman
@Tarragon: thanks, but that’s Disney not Busch Gardens.
Adam L Silverman
@TS: @TenguPhule: Florida is strange. Mandatory evacuations have no legal force to them. And as has been noted, with only 2 north-south interstates that are 2 lanes in each direction a lot of the way, a couple of regional toll connector parkways, and a lot of old state and county roads, evacuation is never easy in Florida. Hence if you don’t need to do so, don’t.
fuckwit
hmmm… isn’t centcomm right in the path of this thing?
Adam L Silverman
@fuckwit: MacDill AFB is home to CENTCOM, SOCOM, and a tanker wing. The first two and resident subordinate commands will relocate essential ops to their fallback locations in the Tampa area. The air wing has been moved way out of the state, as was Homesteads. Liberal leave will be granted for anyone who needs to evacuate. South Tampa floods if someone sneezes, so they have a plan and will follow it.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Sssshhhh, don’t tell Trump about it or he’ll be against it.
Barbara
@Adam L Silverman: They don’t enforce the order (how could they?) but issuing the order can change the way authorities respond to emergencies or 911 calls if an order to evacuate is ignored. I think that’s really the significance: we most likely won’t be able to help you in an emergency.
Tarragon
@Adam L Silverman:
I both didn’t read well enough and didn’t know there was a such a thing.
SiubhanDuinne
@efgoldman:
This above all:….
Seanly
Pro-tip for Adam & others – if the wind is blowing at front of house, open windows in the back side. If the building is sealed up, wind on front of house & back of house are at different pressures (creating net negative pressure on leeward face). Opening windows on non-wind face make enough difference on low-rise buildings to avoid some wind damage.
Adam L Silverman
@Tarragon: Disney’s jungle cruise rides have all robotic animals. Busch Gardens used to have one, they closed it and repurposed the space. The animals at Busch Gardens were all real.
https://buschgardenstampa.wordpress.com/2016/11/19/african-queen-boat-ride/
Seanly
Of course, you have stay in the house. If wind switches direction then you will fill it up like a balloon. If not staying, best bet is to pick up right & hope garage door and roof panels are built properly.
Adam L Silverman
@Seanly: Please post credentials, as well as your proof and show all your work.//
More seriously, thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@Seanly: We have a hurricane rated garage door. And when the roof was redone it was also done so it is rated for the hurricane codes. House is one story, does not have an especially high profile, and has a cinder block exterior.
Adam L Silverman
@Barbara: Without a doubt.
Adam L Silverman
Just in case:
Matt McIrvin
@Adam L Silverman: The Jungle Cruise in Florida seems a little weird now that Disney has another park there that is full of real animals. So they play it ironically.
Seanly
Structural engineer who studied wind engineering at Clemson 93 to 95. Roomed with Dr David Prevatt who is currently at Florida (he was fellow grad student). Did research under Dr Reinhold who ran Clemson’s wind tunnel though I ended up not doing a thesis.
But problem with Andrew was northern contractors building subdivisions & not caring if they didn’t meet code for securing plywood roof sheathing.
I think there are products which open vents in roof to equalize pressure.
Big problem with opening windows is that someone has to stay to close them later.
Adam L Silverman
@Seanly: I was teasing. I had no doubt you were speaking truthful, useful advice. Our roof has some of those vents you’re describing.
Seanly
If you stay, please be safe. Stay away from windows even if hurricane rated.
Adam L Silverman
For anyone wondering, Irma has moved due west, rather than west, northwest. Approximately 1/2 the eye is over Cuba at this point. If it continues west, rather than turning northwest, it’ll continue over Cuba, which will bear the brunt of the storm. I’m not sure anyone has any good idea what this thing is going to do.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: You need the temperature difference, and you need a system that changes its properties in some kind of hysteresis, so that when it goes through a cycle of states, you don’t put as much work in as you get out.
In a hurricane, the temperature difference is between the ocean and space, and the cycle is all about water evaporating into the air and condensing out–in a real sense the working fluid of a hurricane is water. Moist air gets an extra convective boost relative to dry air, because the water can condense out into clouds and rain and release its energy of evaporation as heat. So you get moist air rising toward the center of the storm, and dry air falling around the outside; the air blows inward at the bottom and gathers water vapor from the ocean as it goes. And the rotational motion comes from the Coriolis force and conservation of angular momentum acting on that inflow. So it’s a giant heat engine that turns into a buzzsaw of air the size of Ohio.
StringOnAStick
@Seanly: That’s interesting engineered products for high wind applications, I had no idea that existed. Would that be something a house in an area with occasional very gusty winds up to 60 mph would benefit from or is that over engineering?
Stay safe Adam, both Bettys, Bobby and everyone else in the potential path of this storm. Winds like this are so dangerous.
Adam L Silverman
@Seanly: You seen this:
http://www.snopes.com/science/hurricane.asp
Another Scott
@Matt McIrvin: Yup. Good explanation.
In general, yes, making the ocean water hotter will crank up the thermodynamic driving of the heat engine because space is pretty much an infinite sink for heat. So I really was picking nits.
The main reason why I decided to comment was I was thinking about similar (but off-topic) issues with heat being dumped into the plant world. nighttime temperatures affect plants in important ways. The details of where the heat and rising temperature is going is important. If, for some reason, the extra heat from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) was overwhelmingly heating the top of the atmosphere, then the physics might indicate that hurricanes should get weaker (reduced temperature difference between the top and bottom of the cloud column). But that’s not what happens. If, for some reason, ACC was causing higher daytime changes but no change in nighttime change, then the impact on important food stocks might be reduced. But that’s not what’s happening. So, the physics (and biology in the case of plants) can (and does) make specific predictions of what should and might happen given measured trends in physical data.
The scientists aren’t making this stuff up (as we know). Increasing the forcing (more heat in a heat engine system) will cause more work to be done (more water moved, stronger winds, more evaporation, more rain). The details matter, but the basic physical principles hold.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Art
A tip for those who are getting Irmatized. I’ll be hanging tough in structurally questionable housing that looks to end up about 65 miles away from the center of the category one storm. Looks like the hardest time is scheduled for 0100 to noon. The good news is that the house is sheltered from the expected wind direction so she has a good chance of making it. One never knows. No guarantees in this lifetime.
No worries, no prayers needed. I’ll make it. Worse comes to worse and I fall back on the Old-time Floridians reserve plan: big tree, stout rope, and a bottle of Old Granddad.
I thought I’d offer up one small tip for anyone who has any doubts as to water making it in. Use trash, I use the most common, cheapest, 30 gallon models. Essentially you bag up anything that might be damaged by water. Clothes, electronics, bedding … everything that you can bag. You can do this in the hours before the hammer comes down, or the roof comes off, as the case may be. Bag like you have never bagged before. If nothing else staying active will keep you calm. It might even help. At least you have dry underwear.