Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Republicans do not trust women.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

All hail the time of the bunny!

He really is that stupid.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Republicans in disarray!

You are here: Home / Politics / America / 5 PM Irma Update

5 PM Irma Update

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The National Hurricane Center’s 5:00 PM EDT updates posted just under an hour ago. The advisory went first as it takes a while to update the maps and graphics. Here’s their static image, 3 day forecast with warnings and the cone for Irma:

The public advisory can be found here.

And the interactive forecast map with warnings and cones can be found at this link.

Just a very quick comment on what we’re seeing going on. The first thing I learned working with a retired Navy captain at USAWC was that if you want more power out of your engine, you add heat. We’ve added heat to the oceans. We’ve added heat to the atmosphere. As a result the engine is generating more power. And that’s why the forecast track wobbled east to west and then back a bit over the past 12 hours. Because we’ve got more power in the system than we’ve ever had the only thing anyone knows for sure is that Cuba is going to take a pounding. What is uncertain is when it will make the hard right turn that’s been expected and forecast.

So if you’re in the potential path, keep checking the forecast updates! Remember, yesterday this thing was supposed to hit Jacksonville sometimes on Monday. This morning Atlanta on Tuesday. Now it’s just west of Atlanta. So there’s a lot of variance in the forecast even as the models are in agreement.

If you’re on the east side of this storm and you’ve got time to still do so: GET OUT!!!!

If you’re currently on the west side of the storm finish your preparations. keep monitoring the forecast track, and if the forecast shifts to the west, GET OUT!!!!

Stay safe. And remember to hydrate!

Reader Interactions

147Comments

  1. 1.

    dmsilev

    And remember to hydrate!

    The one thing people in that zone won’t be short of is water. Unfortunately.

    (drinkable water might be a different story. But there will be plenty of water)

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    Before anyone asks:
    1) Other than the last load of laundry, which I’m putting up in five minutes, all of our prep is done. Regardless of if we stay or go.
    2) We have a booking at a long term inn and suites – 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, fully furnished kitchen, takes dogs/pets – in Baton Rouge.
    3) We will make a go/no go decision after the 11 PM EDT forecast. If it continues to stay to the east of the Tampa Bay area we will sit tight. We are far enough inland that the 1-3 foot storm surge isn’t an issue for us. The total rain projections right now are 1-8 inches on Sunday and 1-3 inches on Monday. The biggest issue would be wind. If it jumps the forecast and the track takes it over the Tampa Bay area or into the gulf we will likely go. Provided, of course, that the new track doesn’t just take Irma through the Florida straits and across the Gulf towards New Orleans.
    4) The latter is what my brother, who is a specialist in what hurricanes do to wetlands, is worried about. From talking to the meteorologists that he works with, they’re concerned that the low pressure system that was supposed to turn Irma north has dissipated/shifted because Irma took too long to get to its current position. Without that low to steer it there may be no turn at all. Or a very late turn. And, of course, Irma is now big enough to essentially create her own weather. So… We wait, we watch, we follow the plan.

  3. 3.

    HyperSphericalCow

    We’ve added heat to the oceans. We’ve added heat to the atmosphere. As a result the engine is generating more power.

    Also more water coming off the oceans, which seems to be a contributing factor to Harvey’s record-breaking rains.

    ETA: removed some unfair remarks.

  5. 5.

    Mnemosyne

    Ahem.

    “Don’t forget to hydrate.”

    Most of my family is out of the way, except for the distant relative who is a sheriff’s deputy and so is required to run towards the danger. Hopefully she’ll be okay and not take any dumb risks.

  6. 6.

    Adam L Silverman

    @dmsilev: If you have to purify water and have no power, here’s the instruction:
    https://www.epa.gov/ground-water-and-drinking-water/emergency-disinfection-drinking-water

    Disinfect water using household bleach, if you can’t boil water. Only use regular, unscented chlorine bleach products that are suitable for disinfection and sanitization as indicated on the label. The label may say that the active ingredient contains 6 or 8.25% of sodium hypochlorite. Do not use scented, color safe, or bleaches with added cleaners.If water is cloudy, let it settle and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel, or coffee filter.
    Locate a clean dropper from your medicine cabinet or emergency supply kit.
    Locate a fresh liquid chlorine bleach or liquid chlorine bleach that is stored at room temperatures for less than one year.
    Use the table below as a guide to decide the amount of bleach you should add to the water, for example, 8 drops of 6% bleach, or 6 drops of 8.25% bleach, to each gallon of water. Double the amount of bleach if the water is cloudy, colored, or very cold.Glass containers with droppers
    Stir and let stand for 30 minutes. The water should have a slight chlorine odor. If it doesn’t, repeat the dosage and let stand for another 15 minutes before use.
    If the chlorine taste is too strong, pour the water from one clean container to another and let it stand for a few hours before use.
    Volume of Water Amount of 6% Bleach to Add* Amount of 8.25% Bleach to Add*
    1 quart/liter 2 drops 2 drops
    1 gallon 8 drops 6 drops
    2 gallons 16 drops (1/4 tsp) 12 drops (1/8 teaspoon)
    4 gallons 1/3 teaspoon 1/4 teaspoon
    8 gallons 2/3 teaspoon 1/2 teaspoon
    *Bleach may contain 6 or 8.25% sodium hypochlorite.

  10. 10.

    HeartlandLiberal

    “Remember to hydrate”. Reminds me of an Australian dashcam video I watched last week, titled something “Tragic auto accident.” Dash cam vehicle is following a truck that takes a sharp right, and a flat of beer cases fall off, dashed and broken on the ground. Oh, the humanity!

  11. 11.

    geg6

    I feel for all you Floridians, but if you want to head north, our weather forecast here in Western PA is spectacular!

    Just saw one of my high school classmates interviewed on local tv news. She had her flight from FL booked months ago for our 40th reunion but it was apparently a hellish nightmare getting to and through the airport to get here. She thinks hers was the last flight before they started cancelling flights.

  13. 13.

    Kathleen

    Praying for safety for Juicers and their loved ones. Glad to hear that Adam has a plan, Mustang Bobby is settled and Betty in the islands checked in.
    My daughter, SIL and 2 grand kids are in Tampa. They are not in an Evacuation Zone. She tweeted picture of them getting the shutters installed and praised the neighbors for pitching in and helping each other. My oldest grandson, who runs a roller coaster at Busch Gardens, was told to report at 5pm on Saturday and work until midnight. Ay yi yi.
    I trying to channel worries into constructive energy but it’s not working too well. Almost in tears.

  15. 15.

    Cermet

    For any standard trolls reading BJ, show us liberals what foolish people we really are when we run away from this “fake” news storm; please, just go to Florida and head south to any convent ocean shore and show us what real republicans are capable of doing … .

  16. 16.

    Phylllis

    Waiting for Gov. McMaster to begin his scheduled 6 pm briefing. He’s yet to start one on time, which is getting rather annoying. The forecast now has the storm east of us, but getting 40-50 mph winds and 4-7 inches of rain. Trees that were weakened during Matthew will probably come down with this storm.

  17. 17.

    Immanentize

    As OzarkHillbilly so aptly observed: “Straight up the peni$.”

    “Good Luck everyone and have a great time. You are all amazing people.”

  21. 21.

    HyperSphericalCow

    Exactly when would be a good time to discuss it, SFP?

    At the same time it becomes OK to discuss gun control after a mass shooting.

  25. 25.

    lollipopguild

    @Mnemosyne: Walt is alive and well and living in the underground railroad tunnels that the Govment built with the help of the Alien Lizard people.

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    @zhena gogolia: I spoke to my good friend who was, until retirement, the USAWC chaplain this afternoon. He’s a now retired Catholic priest. He indicated he’s praying for us, but reminded me that he is in sales, not management.

  29. 29.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Steeplejack: West central Florida. I’m in NE Pinellas County. About 10 miles inland from the NW corner of Tampa Bay and about 12 miles or so from the Hillsborough County/Tampa line. As it stands now we’re west of the track. And should it stay that way we’ll hunker down and stay put. We’re too far from the bay for storm surge given the predictions. And the amount of rain isn’t too problematic. Basically we’ll be dealing with the wind effects on the backside of the storm.

  30. 30.

    TriassicSands

    Jose has now reached Category 4 strength. That means that for the first time since records have been kept there are two hurricanes with winds in excess of 150mph.

    It looks like Jose may hit Barbuda. Life is not fair.

  31. 31.

    The Pale Scot

    Driving around Pinellas County today the radio reported multiple hurricanes, huge wild fires, 8.2 earthquakes, locusts in Trinidad. Millions of Rohingya refugees crowding Bangaldesh.

    I think that covers just about everything……….. Oh yea… Trump

    The theme song is Janelle Monáe’s Dance Apocalyptic

    Of course

  32. 32.

    jacy

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Come to Baton Rouge — the weather is beautiful right now. I’ll buy you a beer! Or make you a home-cooked meal. With beer.

    Whatever happens, thinking best thoughts for you and all the Florida juicers.

  33. 33.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jacy: I’ll put a post up if we’re heading your way. Thanks for the offer but I’ll be evacing my Mom and the dogs with me. So probably not going to do much but hang out in the long term suite I’ve got booked.

  36. 36.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @HyperSphericalCow:

    Exactly when would be a good time to discuss it, SFP?

    At the same time it becomes OK to discuss gun control after a mass shooting.

    Yup. It’s the identical mindset.

  40. 40.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Kathleen: I did a masters in religion there, but that was the only two years I’ve lived south of the Tampa area. I grew up in Tampa, my Mom moved to Pinellas after my Dad died. My brother and his family live in Pinellas County as well. I’ve also lived in Gainesville, FL where I did my doctorate. My preference is to not live in Florida, however, the work is here at this time, so…

  42. 42.

    trollhattan

    Stay smart and stay safe everybody. This storm is a bloody monster and my hope is she wanders off, given the remaining forecast uncertainties. Doesn’t look likely though, does it?

    On the topic of heating the engine, consider this. (I see slackers–talkin’ to you, Eastern Washington!)

  44. 44.

    feebog

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I dunno, that track seems to keep edging closer to the West Coast every time I see it. I have a friend who lives about 30 miles inland from Tampa, so not too far from you. She seems to think they will be ok. Hoping she is right.

  45. 45.

    RSR

    Dave had a phrase in a post a few days ago about grinding against the coast like a creep in the club and looks like that’s what Cuba’s getting.

  47. 47.

    The Dangerman

    Could this thing shift so far west the Eye Wall misses Florida entirely? Eye Wall is the worst winds, right (cut me slack here, it’s Friday, I’m in Cali, coffee was long ago, beer is now)?

  49. 49.

    Gravenstone

    @SiubhanDuinne: It’s the mass shooting paradigm – now is not an appropriate time to talk about the reasons for this tragic event that no one could have foreseen.

  53. 53.

    Betty Cracker

    @debbie: Saw that on Twitter earlier. Hilarious! I just wonder how the hell they caught them. Chickens are fast! Maybe they snuck up on them roosting. ?

  54. 54.

    Adam L Silverman

    @feebog: 30 miles inland from Tampa is east. I’m to the west of Tampa. Your friend is much closer to the storm track than I am.

  57. 57.

    ARoomWithAMoose

    @The Dangerman: @The Dangerman:

    If it shifts far enough west to rake the west coast of FL with the center of the storm over water, it will keep it’s strength longer. As far as peak winds, typically they are on the right front quarter of the eyewall, as the “forward” motion of the storm system adds to the wind speed in the counter clockwise rotation of the storm. The heaviest rain is typically there too. Every one of these storms presents a little differently. I remember one of the 2004 storms heading east to west just north of Tampa (which put North Tampa on the “left side” of the storm), the winds got stronger once the storm center had passed and was near the gulf.

  59. 59.

    Adam L Silverman

    @The Dangerman: There is some concern that it doesn’t turn at all, just goes straight west into the Gulf and then hits anywhere on the Gulf Coast. At that point Everyone from Houston to Tampa is going to be in harms way until the track is reestablished.

  64. 64.

    Adam L Silverman

    @debbie: You don’t want to go unless you have to go so that everyone else on the road has time to move through. We’ve kept this in mind and play on taking state roads to get to where we need to. Will ad a bit of time, but they’ll not be gridlocked.

  68. 68.

    TenguPhule

    @TriassicSands:

    Jose has now reached Category 4 strength. That means that for the first time since records have been kept there are two hurricanes with winds in excess of 150mph.

    I preferred the Perfect Storm as a CGI movie.

  69. 69.

    TenguPhule

    @Baud:

    That’s why it’s important to stay calm and sober. So that when you freak out, it means something.

    Baud 2020: “YES, NOW ITS TIME TO PANIC!!!”

  70. 70.

    Kathleen

    @Adam L Silverman: So you are “Florida Man”! My fam has been down there for 12 years and finally gave up on asking me to move down there. Never been a fan, and I’m especially glad in times like this.
    At what school did you get your masters of religion?

  73. 73.

    TenguPhule

    @Adam L Silverman:

    You don’t want to go unless you have to go so that everyone else on the road has time to move through.

    And I’m going to wager that absolutely nobody now stuck on the highway there was following that rule of thumb.

  76. 76.

    The Dangerman

    @Adam L Silverman:

    There is some concern that it doesn’t turn at all … everyone from Houston to Tampa is going to be in harms way…

    So, good for Florida, but that sounds like maximal suckage because it should rebuild strength over open water, yes?

  78. 78.

    Steeplejack

    Chris Matthews excitedly explaining that the Florida keys are little tiny islands in the ocean. Unprotected! Oh, the humanity!

  79. 79.

    LurkerNoLonger

    @SiubhanDuinne: I think Pruitt means “insensitive” as in “don’t bring it up now because it totally destroys all of my bullshit and makes me look like a fucking idiot.”

  80. 80.

    TenguPhule

    We can’t leave Florida, but we can’t stay either. Help us!

    Already, more than 20 counties have been told by the government to evacuate, and more are being added to the list by the hour. We’re looking at one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history. More than 6 million people live in southern Florida. As they all pile into their cars and try to outrun this massive storm, experts are telling those not in storm surge areas, low-lying flood areas or coastal areas to try to stay put. “The majority of Florida will have major hurricane impact and deadly winds. We expect this along the entire east coast and west coast,” Scott said at a news conference. “All Floridians should be prepared to evacuate.”

    But Florida has only two main roads: interstates 95 and 75. They are parking lots, and have been for days. People are sitting in their vehicles, completely stopped on four-lane highways, running out of gas. There are no exits on these roads for scores of miles at a time. Once you get on a Florida highway, you are not getting off. You’re stuck. So, my family’s choices are: We stay here in our flimsily built house, made of sheet rock and plywood; or we hop on an unmoving highway and risk running out of gas closer to the coast, with only our car for protection.

    We would further clog those roads for the people in South Florida who need to get to safety, too. At least I’m inland. Irma is going to blast right over us, but she can’t bury us in rising seawater. Miami needs the roads. We’d better stay off them to keep others alive.

  82. 82.

    Mnemosyne

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Sorry, I had to wander away to do work stuff. Hamilton was awesome and well worth the wait. Oddly, I didn’t cry quite as much as I expected to during the sad parts. There was too much to watch that was happening at the same time.

  83. 83.

    MomSense

    Remind me never to complain about blizzards again. I can’t imagine how one prepares for a storm like Irma. Please take care of yourselves Florida juicers. And don’t forget to check in and let us know you’re ok. This mother is worrying about all of you!

  85. 85.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: I shall, good sir. I am also on Twitter at @bettycrackerfl if anyone cares to follow me at that hive of scum and villainy.

  88. 88.

    TenguPhule

    U.S. warplanes call off surveillance of an ISIS convoy, at Russia’s request

    W T F.

    Hey, Adam, has this ever happened before? Is this normal?

    At Russia’s request, the U.S. military on Friday called off its surveillance of a convoy of Islamic State fighters that has been stuck in the Syrian desert for the past 10 days, saying it is now up to the Syrian government to resolve its fate.

    The decision to withdraw the warplanes that have been circling over the convoy came after Syrian troops advancing through the province of Deir al-Zour passed the point where the convoy is located, leaving it behind Syrian army lines, according to a military statement.

    The convoy became stuck in the no man’s land between the front lines of the Syrian Army and the Islamic State, after the U.S. military bombed the road ahead to prevent it from reaching Islamic State territory in eastern Syria. It had been traveling there from western Syria under the terms of a deal struck between the Islamic State and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement to end fighting along the Lebanese border.

    Because Syrian troops are now in control of the area, the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State agreed to a Russian request to halt the surveillance, in the interests of deconflicting the rival Russian- and U.S.-backed efforts to defeat the militants, the statement said.

  91. 91.

    RoonieRoo

    When this thing hits, can we have a check-in post for the Juicers in the path that stays near the top or keeps getting updated? Do we know which juicers are in the path? We only got sideswiped by Harvey (9 inches with 50 mph winds) while my sister north of Houston is dealing with the damage to her clinic. The rest of my family are all in the West getting choked by smoke. I’m feeling slightly punch drunk on these disasters.

  97. 97.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Major Major Major Major: @Baud: dolphins don’t have very good personalities, you know.

    sounds like someone’s been following fake news from the manatees. I have it on good authority that dolphins are god’s angels, always at hand to save one of His children
    ETA: edited because dammit

  98. 98.

    efgoldman

    @Adam L Silverman: I know that you are logical, and physically prepared, and I think probably a natural leader. People like you can feel invulnerable, which brings out the inevitable Polonius in me.
    So I’ll repeat what I said last night: Be safe. No property is worth it.
    Also for what it’s worth, Shabat shalom.

  99. 99.

    TenguPhule

    @efgoldman:

    which brings out the inevitable Polonius in me.

    So you’re the one responsible for all those Russians mysteriously dropping dead like flies.

  105. 105.

    Matt McIrvin

    We’ve added heat to the oceans. We’ve added heat to the atmosphere. As a result the engine is generating more power. And that’s why the forecast track wobbled east to west and then back a bit over the past 12 hours. Because we’ve got more power in the system than we’ve ever had the only thing anyone knows for sure is that Cuba is going to take a pounding. What is uncertain is when it will make the hard right turn that’s been expected and forecast.

    The added heat in the system is (probably) why this fucker is a Cat 5. The wobbling track, though? That’s just garden-variety scientific uncertainty. It’s all within the cone, and those cones used to be wider years ago, before the models were as good as they are now. I’ve been amazed at how successful the track predictions have been so far.

  106. 106.

    Steeplejack

    Venting my random concerns . . .

    I’m glad Mustang Bobby has removed himself to his friends’ place in Pinecrest, but that’s still only a couple of miles inland and, according to Wikipedia, three feet above sea level. I hope the storm surge doesn’t reach him.

    Also, commenter Betty in the Caribbean last checked in on Tuesday (that I saw), which I think was actually before Irma was going to pass by her location. So I hope she is okay.

    Not to go all “back in my day,” but back in the day I rode out some bad hurricanes in Mobile. What these tough-guy “I’m not scared of no hurricane” people don’t realize is that, even if your place comes through untouched and pristine, you’re going to be inhabiting a landscape where nothing works. Other people’s houses have been damaged. The streets are blocked with debris, downed power lines and repair trucks. And, even if you can get anywhere, there’s nothing in the stores or they’re closed because their power has been out (thus nuking everything that was in a cold case, for example). So good luck with all that.

    On the other hand, I really feel for the large number of people who realistically cannot evacuate. This country, just below the surface, is a lot poorer than we would like to think, and there are huge numbers of people who don’t have the ability to pick up and evacuate, no matter how desperately they want to. We’ve all read the stories about the large percentage of Americans who couldn’t handle an unexpected $400 emergency. Well, a hurricane evacuation certainly qualifies.

    So what’s left? Thoughts and prayers™ to everyone in Irma’s path, I guess. (Not snark, frustration.)

  107. 107.

    The Pale Scot

    @scav:

    There’s also the largest solar flare in a decade or so.

    I meant to include that when I was driving.

    What’s the likelihood of EMP type event that knocks out coms and satellites right before two 150 mph storms hit?

  112. 112.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TenguPhule: not that I’m aware. I know that the Russians were making an issue of it as an information op accusing us of protecting ISIS.

  116. 116.

    Elie

    @Steeplejack:

    Good comment.

    I just saw on CNN that the update is that Irma will be a Cat 5 when she hits the Keys. Also, she is leaning west instead of east… This is pretty terrifying and as has been said numerous times, my prayers and good wishes go with everyone in its path — which is essentially all of FL

  117. 117.

    Another Scott

    Is it late enough for the physicist pedant to post? No? Ok.

    The first thing I learned working with a retired Navy captain at USAWC was that if you want more power out of your engine, you add heat.

    Kinda-sorta.

    Just adding heat glosses over some things.

    Heat engines require differences in temperature. Carnot worked all this out a long time ago.

    That’s why the “heat death of the universe” is a bad thing. Without temperature differences, no work can be done. The temperature doesn’t have to fall to zero – it just has to be uniform (or more correctly, the temperature difference between the hot and cold reservoirs in a Carnot heat engine becomes too small to do any useful work).

    It’s also one (but only one) reason why one generally wants to have the coolest intake air temperature possible in high-performance engines. Big temperature differences give the possibility of big work done.

    It’s a minor thing, but pedants live for minor things. ;-)

    Stay safe, everyone.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  119. 119.

    TS

    @TenguPhule: From your link – this is what you need for evacuation to succeed

    The last thing we need are demands that we leave. Mandatory evacuation could do more harm than Irma herself. Scott has the best of intentions, but you can’t tell millions upon millions of people to evacuate without giving them any real way to do so. Two major highways just won’t cut it for that parade of refugees.

    Meaningful evacuation would have meant public transport, safe shelters along the way, medical help and facilities throughout, and safe shelter, food, water and sanitary supplies on the other side of it all. For free. Because evacuating is expensive: You need gas and a reliable vehicle.

  124. 124.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TS: @TenguPhule: Florida is strange. Mandatory evacuations have no legal force to them. And as has been noted, with only 2 north-south interstates that are 2 lanes in each direction a lot of the way, a couple of regional toll connector parkways, and a lot of old state and county roads, evacuation is never easy in Florida. Hence if you don’t need to do so, don’t.

  126. 126.

    Adam L Silverman

    @fuckwit: MacDill AFB is home to CENTCOM, SOCOM, and a tanker wing. The first two and resident subordinate commands will relocate essential ops to their fallback locations in the Tampa area. The air wing has been moved way out of the state, as was Homesteads. Liberal leave will be granted for anyone who needs to evacuate. South Tampa floods if someone sneezes, so they have a plan and will follow it.

  128. 128.

    Barbara

    @Adam L Silverman: They don’t enforce the order (how could they?) but issuing the order can change the way authorities respond to emergencies or 911 calls if an order to evacuate is ignored. I think that’s really the significance: we most likely won’t be able to help you in an emergency.

  131. 131.

    Seanly

    Pro-tip for Adam & others – if the wind is blowing at front of house, open windows in the back side. If the building is sealed up, wind on front of house & back of house are at different pressures (creating net negative pressure on leeward face). Opening windows on non-wind face make enough difference on low-rise buildings to avoid some wind damage.

  133. 133.

    Seanly

    Of course, you have stay in the house. If wind switches direction then you will fill it up like a balloon. If not staying, best bet is to pick up right & hope garage door and roof panels are built properly.

  135. 135.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Seanly: We have a hurricane rated garage door. And when the roof was redone it was also done so it is rated for the hurricane codes. House is one story, does not have an especially high profile, and has a cinder block exterior.

  139. 139.

    Seanly

    Structural engineer who studied wind engineering at Clemson 93 to 95. Roomed with Dr David Prevatt who is currently at Florida (he was fellow grad student). Did research under Dr Reinhold who ran Clemson’s wind tunnel though I ended up not doing a thesis.
    But problem with Andrew was northern contractors building subdivisions & not caring if they didn’t meet code for securing plywood roof sheathing.
    I think there are products which open vents in roof to equalize pressure.
    Big problem with opening windows is that someone has to stay to close them later.

  140. 140.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Seanly: I was teasing. I had no doubt you were speaking truthful, useful advice. Our roof has some of those vents you’re describing.

  142. 142.

    Adam L Silverman

    For anyone wondering, Irma has moved due west, rather than west, northwest. Approximately 1/2 the eye is over Cuba at this point. If it continues west, rather than turning northwest, it’ll continue over Cuba, which will bear the brunt of the storm. I’m not sure anyone has any good idea what this thing is going to do.

  143. 143.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Another Scott: You need the temperature difference, and you need a system that changes its properties in some kind of hysteresis, so that when it goes through a cycle of states, you don’t put as much work in as you get out.

    In a hurricane, the temperature difference is between the ocean and space, and the cycle is all about water evaporating into the air and condensing out–in a real sense the working fluid of a hurricane is water. Moist air gets an extra convective boost relative to dry air, because the water can condense out into clouds and rain and release its energy of evaporation as heat. So you get moist air rising toward the center of the storm, and dry air falling around the outside; the air blows inward at the bottom and gathers water vapor from the ocean as it goes. And the rotational motion comes from the Coriolis force and conservation of angular momentum acting on that inflow. So it’s a giant heat engine that turns into a buzzsaw of air the size of Ohio.

  144. 144.

    StringOnAStick

    @Seanly: That’s interesting engineered products for high wind applications, I had no idea that existed. Would that be something a house in an area with occasional very gusty winds up to 60 mph would benefit from or is that over engineering?

    Stay safe Adam, both Bettys, Bobby and everyone else in the potential path of this storm. Winds like this are so dangerous.

  145. 145.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Seanly: You seen this:
    http://www.snopes.com/science/hurricane.asp

    Should You Open Windows During a Hurricane?
    Storm lore holds that you should open a window slightly during a hurricane to equalize the inner pressure of a house with the outside lower pressure accompanying the hurricane.

    CLAIM
    You should leave a window open slightly during a hurricane to equalize pressure.

    RATING
    FALSE
    ORIGIN
    The helplessness many homeowners feel during the approach of a destructive storm contributes to the belief of a number of hurricane falsities. While people can get themselves and their loved ones out of the way of a hurricane about to make landfall, they cannot move their homes and so have to abandon them to the ravages of nature.

    Homeowners in hurricane areas do try to shield their property from weather-caused damage, but many of the popularly-believed defenses they resort to are ineffective, and one can contribute to far greater degrees of wreckage being visited upon their domiciles.

    That latter tidbit of misinformation asserts that to relieve pressure from building up within the house during a hurricane and causing the building’s roof to blow off, one should leave a few windows either fully open or slightly cracked. But the opposite is true: windows should be tightly shut to prevent any of the wind from entering the home. What does enter will seek to exit, in the process blowing out a roof or ceiling, collapsing a gable end or a garage door. Wherever the home’s weak point is, such rogue winds will find it and assault it.

    The notion of keeping some windows slightly cracked open during hurricanes crossed over from what was at one time touted as an effective defense against tornadoes but which has since been discredited. In the wake of devastating twisters, it would sometimes appear that a few houses had exploded; from this evidence, scientists theorized air pressure outside had to have been far lower than it was inside, with this disparity causing the blowout. It was therefore suggested people leave their windows open just a bit to equalize pressure.

    However, further research showed those blasted apart houses were the result of wind blowing into open or broken windows, so the advice, rather than preventing this particular form of destruction, would actually work to cause it. Those gusts that entered homes pushed up on the roofs at the same time wind was blowing over them, which made the roofs act like airplane wings and generate lifting force. Once roofs lift off, the walls of homes can fall outward, making it look like the buildings exploded.

    Other widely relied upon modes of protecting one’s home from the ravages of a hurricane are also ineffective:

    Contrary to popular belief (and a frantic rise in the sales of these items before a hurricane hits), taping a home’s windows with masking or duct tape does nothing to protect them. The windows will still break, with the tape doing nothing to impede the process. It’s questionable that either sealant will even keep broken glass from dispersing, says the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH).
    “Hurricane film,” a clear film that sticks onto the glass, is similarly ineffective unless it is anchored in the window frame. Lacking that, a film-covered window will withstand only whatever wind load it resists without the film.
    All windows and doors of a home need to be protected from hurricane winds, not just the ones facing the ocean. Wind can come from any direction or angle and may change direction quickly.
    While many mobile home owners think storm shutters and tie-downs will preserve their domiciles from pounding storms, this sort of dwelling cannot withstand more than minimal hurricane winds. Tie-down anchors come loose as the ground becomes saturated by the rain.
    But it’s not all doom and gloom; homeowners do have some recourse against the winds. They can install hurricane shutters on their windows or use specially developed new screen and fabric products on them. The mesh and fabric range from about $7 to about $25 a square foot.

    Plywood, while better than nothing, is not the home saver many believe it to be. It can help to guard windows from some of the flying debris loosed by a storm’s fury. However, against the winds themselves it is not all that effective, even when properly installed (fitted perfectly to each window and screwed at 18-inch intervals into the building itself rather than merely into its siding). Plywood is a bulwark of last resort rather than a poor man’s equivalent of professionally-installed hurricane shutters; one is not comparable to the other. Keep in mind that as Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) spokeswoman Sylvia E. Farrington noted, even a minimal hurricane can drill a 2-by-4 through a concrete wall. Now imagine how well plywood window coverings would fare.

    One last caution: If you stay in your home during a hurricane and the power goes out, do not light candles or gas or oil lanterns because of the potential for gas leaks from storm-damaged lines. Instead, use only flashlights or battery-powered lanterns during and after a storm until power is safely restored and all gas lines are checked.

  146. 146.

    Another Scott

    @Matt McIrvin: Yup. Good explanation.

    In general, yes, making the ocean water hotter will crank up the thermodynamic driving of the heat engine because space is pretty much an infinite sink for heat. So I really was picking nits.

    The main reason why I decided to comment was I was thinking about similar (but off-topic) issues with heat being dumped into the plant world. nighttime temperatures affect plants in important ways. The details of where the heat and rising temperature is going is important. If, for some reason, the extra heat from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) was overwhelmingly heating the top of the atmosphere, then the physics might indicate that hurricanes should get weaker (reduced temperature difference between the top and bottom of the cloud column). But that’s not what happens. If, for some reason, ACC was causing higher daytime changes but no change in nighttime change, then the impact on important food stocks might be reduced. But that’s not what’s happening. So, the physics (and biology in the case of plants) can (and does) make specific predictions of what should and might happen given measured trends in physical data.

    The scientists aren’t making this stuff up (as we know). Increasing the forcing (more heat in a heat engine system) will cause more work to be done (more water moved, stronger winds, more evaporation, more rain). The details matter, but the basic physical principles hold.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  147. 147.

    Art

    A tip for those who are getting Irmatized. I’ll be hanging tough in structurally questionable housing that looks to end up about 65 miles away from the center of the category one storm. Looks like the hardest time is scheduled for 0100 to noon. The good news is that the house is sheltered from the expected wind direction so she has a good chance of making it. One never knows. No guarantees in this lifetime.

    No worries, no prayers needed. I’ll make it. Worse comes to worse and I fall back on the Old-time Floridians reserve plan: big tree, stout rope, and a bottle of Old Granddad.

    I thought I’d offer up one small tip for anyone who has any doubts as to water making it in. Use trash, I use the most common, cheapest, 30 gallon models. Essentially you bag up anything that might be damaged by water. Clothes, electronics, bedding … everything that you can bag. You can do this in the hours before the hammer comes down, or the roof comes off, as the case may be. Bag like you have never bagged before. If nothing else staying active will keep you calm. It might even help. At least you have dry underwear.

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