I was going to post earlier that the chance of Trump not firing Rosenstein was the same as Trump not bombing Syria but I didn’t get my post in on time.
5.
TenguPhule
War Crimes in Progress. This time as farce.
6.
Corner Stone
What is this, some kind of bribe offer?
7.
PhoenixRising
There’s the tail. Now watch the dog.
8.
Baud
I assume this time he’s finally become presidential…
9.
lamh36
@Bakari_Sellers
Follow Follow @Bakari_Sellers
More
We are ordering a military strike without a Secretary of State.
I am here at the ED with SuzMom, who is behaving loopy AF and in significant pain. She had encephalitis in 2007 and was acting just the same as she did today. Apparently herpes simplex encephalitis can recur.
The recent chemical strikes have been with chlorine. If he is targeting chlorine plants or stocks, that will be a humanitarian disaster, because chlorine is necessary for water purification.
22.
Rob
So has he actually announced anything?
eta: I ask because I missed the beginning announcement, I am reading now, and all I heard was blather. So, never mind. Late to the party, again.
Hey, there’s a first for everything. Hopefully, there’ll be enough evidence to dump this shit for brains President by November.
24.
jl
I’ll read the transcript later. Decision executed right now or already anyway. The idea of this vile crook making life-and-death decisions is disgusting.
Josh Marshall has a twitter tweet saying Mattis went along because Trumps loose cannon tweets committed us to do something. On other hand, looks like France and UK cooperating, not that in an of itself means it is a wise or responsible action. News I see says ‘precision strikes’. Hope it is largely symbolic, like last time. I don’t want an complete incompetent ass like Trump making any important decisions.
Edit: I’ll request AS give us an assessment of Matti’s ethics and competence after we see what happened and the fall out.
25.
Elizabelle
Wheels up on AF 1 to Mar a Loco in 45 minutes. (I’m guessing.)
And no Rosenstein firing, this hour.
26.
lamh36
@MattOrtega
See you on the other side, Maureen Dowd.
When this turns out to have been the wrong thing to do, it will of course be Obama’s fault.
38.
germy
This strike… Drumpf’s philosophy is to get in and get out real quick, right?
Like with Stormy?
39.
lamh36
@DeanObeidallah
2m2 minutes ago
More
This morning fox and friends LITERALLY said that if trump bombed Syria it would knock James comey’s book out of the headlines. Apparently the message was heard by trump
40.
Rob
@AFP
5m5 minutes ago
#BREAKING Huge blasts heard in Syria’s capital
41.
Adam L Silverman
Here’s the twitter account for the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF OIR) Public Affairs Officer/Spokesperson: https://twitter.com/oirspox?lang=en
@SiubhanDuinne: It’s creepy. She doesn’t know what year it is, what day it is, the pets’ names. And I’ve had to tell her at least 15 times that Trump is the president and she is horrified every time, which is simultaneously funny and really upsetting.
Haven’t seen any announcements from France or Britain. Do they know they’re involved in this?
Aaand there we go. Cyprus is the logical staging point, at least for the Brits.
54.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
Damn, Friday the 13th is really living up to it’s name this time.
55.
Gin & Tonic
I missed the part where Congress authorized this, as is their Constitutional duty.
56.
jl
@TenguPhule: Even if it turns out to be disgusting and corrupt Kabuki theater, it is not OK. GOP needs to be politically obliterated in this country, and Trumpsters out of office in disgrace, and those guilty of crime need to go to jail asap. Won’t happen soon though.
57.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: Mattis’s job is to serve as one of the President’s two senior and principal military advisor. The other one is Gen Dunford, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Their job is to present the President with options and plans, argue for what they think is the best one or the one with the greatest likelihood of success and that best mitigates risk, and then execute the decision made by the President. So there isn’t really an ethical issue here unless the President issued orders that are illegal and/or unethical. Say the deliberate targeting of non-combatants and civilians.
The Pentagon will be holding a 10 PM press conference. I’ll put up a live feed if I can find it. We should know more about the target set then.
58.
Spanky
@Suzanne: My mother got the same way until they adjusted some meds. Hope you have the same easy outcome.
Telling my mom that Trump was still POTUS after her seizure was more than I had in me–had to stop a neurologist from asking her if she understood. In retrospect, I was probably too aggressive with the kid–she was just a resident–when I asked if she had lost her mind, why would you ask someone who’s ill a dangerous question like that?
@AliVelshi
58s59 seconds ago
More
BREAKING: UK PM THERESA May says she has authorised British forces to conduct co-ordinated & targeted strikes to degrade the Syrian Regime’s chemical weapons capability https://twitter.com/AliVelshi/status/984964497076080640
66.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus: I submit that Donald Trump tests that school of thought to the breaking point.
@lamh36: Can’t some V for Vendetta group take over the FOx n Friends show/feed, just for a week?
69.
jl
@Adam L Silverman: Well, there may be an irreconcilable difference between us here. It’s come to the point that I think anyone doing anything that Trump decides is unethical, because that is evidence on its face that the decision is incompetent, unethical and corrupt.
I suppose Mattis and Dunford telling Trump to shut up and do what they recommend is a high bar, and there is a conflict of laws issue there, wrt to Constitution. Not much room of a win-win deal in the making.
@TenguPhule: No, just not paying attention. I just fixed it. Thanks.
72.
TenguPhule
@jl: If they’re targeting Chlorine storage, they’re targeting drinking water utilities.
73.
Elizabelle
@Suzanne: Tell her Obama is still president. Maybe she needs to relax. My best to you and your mom and family.
74.
JWR
I don’t have cable. Has Brian Williams seen any “beautiful” missile launches yet?
75.
lamh36
@joshrogin
Follow Follow @joshrogin
More
Trump said nothing about Assad’s other mass atrocities, including starvation sieges, mass torture and murder of civilians in custody and other war crimes. Assad is free to keep killing his people by any non-chemical means.
So Mattis doesn't want to strike Syria because it risks dragging U.S. into a broader war with Russia and Iran, but he has to do it anyway because Trump tweeted about it.
Welcome to the Trump national security nightmare we've been waiting for.
@Tilda Swintons Bald Cap: It’s his “Welcome John!” party. Scooter Libby pardon and an airstrike, all in his first week.
78.
jl
@germy: The national security credibility fairy causes more mischief.
79.
mad citizen
So I was reading TPM as my wife and I have the regular Fox network on–Masterchef Junior with kids cooking and Gordon Ramsey–no he doesn’t swear at them. I walked in the living room and told my wife Trumpov was going to speak at some point tonight to the nation. Then about 9:03 it just cut in and he was already talking. I had to laugh at the ineptness of Fox. Sean Hannity then appeared doing the post-talking, but our local affiliate cut in with their anchorwoman. I agree, it seemed like he was just seeing the words, like English is a second language. Terrible at giving these addresses. Just another Friday night in the sh1tshow in america.
80.
PhoenixRising
The targets include urban ones, based on the practice runs executed in Albuquerque yesterday and last night. The USAF is always training!
(When we bought this house it was a major selling feature that it’s a 12 minute drive from my front door to the end of the security line at the commercial airport. However, it’s also adjacent to the military airfield.)
81.
lamh36
NO Secretary of State and also…
@PaulRieckhoff
13m13 minutes ago
More
As America deepens our war in Syria tonight, and creates even more combat veterans, please remember that we have no @DeptVetAffairs Secretary.
The Commander in Chief is not a king who can go to war at will, and the Congressional authorization for the use of military force after 9/11 had nothing to do with ‘Animal Assad.’
Spencer Ackerman
04.10.18 1:04 PM ET
With much of the world bracing for Donald Trump’s new missile strikes on Syria, the president’s legal authority to attack Bashar Assad is conspicuously AWOL.
Assad isn’t subject to either of the two authorizations Congress passed after 9/11 to bless the use of military force. He’s not part of al Qaeda, nor a successor organization like the Islamic State—which is dubiously covered under the 2001 authorization as it is—nor is he part of Saddam Hussein’s regime.
The closest Trump aides have come to providing a domestic legal justification for striking Assad, offered by his former secretary of state, is that Trump possesses the inherent authority to do so as commander-in-chief, a gigantic assertion last used—and ultimately abandoned—by George W. Bush’s administration.
The implications are large and ominous, according to a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “If [Trump] strikes Syria without our approval, what will stop him from bombing North Korea or Iran?” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told The Daily Beast on Tuesday.
[…]
(Via Attackerman on Twitter.)
Cheers,
Scott.
84.
Gravenstone
@Cheryl Rofer: Not to mention the fact that any cylinders on site will be breached, releasing chlorine gas to the immediate area. If there is anything residential nearby – clusterfuck!
Looks like some of the known chemical weapons facilities and airfields are being hit. This is effective only because Obama chose disarmament of Syria’s cw rather than strikes.
89.
lamh36
@cmclymer
2m2 minutes ago
More
A working national media not beholden to access privileges would be asking why Trump felt it necessary to give Russia a heads up that he was planning to strike Syria, an ally of Russia.
Y’all… this is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.
#SyriaStrikes
90.
Adam L Silverman
@guachi: You know that we have plans and sequels for everything.
@TAPSTRIMEDIA
Follow Follow @TAPSTRIMEDIA
More
I’m old enough to remember when the rhetoric was that Hillary Clinton was going to get us into a war with Russia in Syria #irony
8:20 PM – 13 Apr 2018
93.
NotMax
It’s early Saturday in Syria. Expect it may have been U.K. and France which common sense-wise balked at bombing a Muslim nation on a Friday.
94.
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer: A radio commenter with a military background claims this is military theater. The location of the strike was so set that locals could protect their windows from blast vibration. Syrian and Russian military were allowed ample time to clear out.
And Putin lets Trump look tough.
95.
germy
While Bashar al-Assad must be held accountable for his unlawful use of chemical weapons against civilians, the strikes that are being carried out are being done without an authorization from Congress, which is unacceptable
@Brachiator: I’m going on early reports. We may hear otherwise as things proceed.
103.
Mary G
Twitter says the president deleted the tweet issued earlier today that supposedly showed John Kelly at the end of the table with his face in his hand. You couldn’t make this up, except Dr. Strangelove, I guess.
@TenguPhule: Looking that way. We’ll find out more tomorrow.
108.
Ella in New Mexico
Sounds like Mattis is saving all our asses tonight. Remember to thank him later, folks.
109.
Elizabelle
I am still way more concerned with US domestic issues. Rosenstein, protecting Mueller, an exhaustive investigation into what Team Mueller finds. This octopus has a lot of tentacles.
RE Syria: they gassed civilians. Obama probably would have done something too, only with Congress’s backing. This is theatre.
It won’t work WRT knocking Comey’s book and Cohen raid off the front page. All that stuff still goes on. Tick tock.
Thanks, Comey, for enabling this. The rate of senseless killing in the Middle East was at risk of being too low.
112.
NotMax
Wag the velociraptor.
113.
lamh36
@TS: To her credit, Maddow is NOT…CNN has never seen a war missile they didn’t want to cover in an overboard manner tho…I quickly cut off AC360
114.
Chet Murthy
One says to oneself that here’s another reason refugees come to America: it’s the only goddam place where the US military doesn’t feel free to throw down at the slightest provocation. Here, it’s just the fuckin’ cops.
ETA: and of course, every goddam testosterone-poisoned asshole. But they’re not exactly a military force, so there’s that.
115.
lamh36
@williamlegate
17m17 minutes ago
More
It took Bolton just FIVE DAYS to get us into a war.
116.
Ella in New Mexico
@Cheryl Rofer: and that will be the only thing I ever hold against Barack Obama.
@Adam L Silverman: First pilot to get shot down is gonna get butchered by the locals before we can retrieve them.
130.
Adam L Silverman
We’re now at war with Russia!
BREAKING: Reports indicate that Russian air defence systems are being used against incoming US cruise missiles. Lebanese airspace is reportedly being violated during this attack.
Senator Kaine on the latest news out of Syria: “President Trump’s decision to launch airstrikes against the Syrian government without Congress’s approval is illegal and – absent a broader strategy – it’s reckless.
also, russia’s threats to strike back at the source of any missiles.
140.
lamh36
@courtdanee
7m7 minutes ago
More
Let me get this straight: The Cheeto just ordered air strikes to Syria, which will kill a bunch of innocent Syrians. And he’s also banning Syrian refugees, who need refuge from the kinds of attacks he just ordered. So, we’re just slaughtering people left and right. https://twitter.com/courtdanee/status/984969277588557825
Haven’t seen any announcements from France or Britain. Do they know they’re involved in this?
I have the very strong impression that Britain and France were far more determined than Trump to attack Syria.
I would not be surprised to learn that Trump’s timetable was driven by them, in that they were going to proceed with or without Trump’s support. (I could be wildly incorrect on that of course – just speculation.)
Can’t be a Republican and be presidential without bombing some brown people, doncha know.
145.
Ruckus
@lamh36:
I’m wondering if not having a Sec of the VA is better than having a drumpf partisan running the VA. I know that some things are falling through the cracks as of a little over a year ago, I expect it to get a lot worse. I’m glad I don’t have any major long term healthcare needs as a user of the VA services. Oh fucking wait……….
While Bashar al-Assad must be held accountable for his unlawful use of chemical weapons against civilians, the strikes that are being carried out are being done without an authorization from Congress, which is unacceptable
When it comes to cursing, the man doesn’t hold back. “Son of a bitch” is the mildest cuss word that comes out of the militia member’s mouth as he rants furiously about the inferno created by the hours-long American airstrike southeast of the city of Deir ez-Zor. Even as smoke continues to billow from burned out SUVs around them, he and five other men have come to remove the shattered body of one of their fellow fighters from the glowing embers of a bombed-out building.
The scene comes from a two-minute video of the battlefield that one of the fighters took on the afternoon of Feb. 8, hours after the firestorm, and provided to DER SPIEGEL and the Euphrates Post, a news site providing coverage of the region. It’s the first photographic documentation of one of the most mysterious battles yet in this increasingly complex war.
Initially, the United States military announced on Feb. 8 it had attacked “pro-regime forces” of Bashar Assad’s southeast of the city Deir ez-Zor to ward off an attack on a base belonging to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are allies of the Americans. The U.S. said the pro-Assad forces had attacked the SDF base with tanks and mortars. The U.S. fired back in response, claiming to have killed “more than 100” of the fighters in what was described as an act of self-defense.
But who exactly were these attackers? And what really happened that night in the small, half-deserted villages on the east bank of the Euphrates River? Did American bombs decimate Russian troops? Could the attack even be a foreboding of coming skirmishes between the Americans and Russians?
A Different Version of Events
It was primarily the second night-time attack from the village of Tabiya that triggered the American paroxysm, said two men belonging to the al-Baqir militia of the Bekara tribe. Because in addition to the deconfliction line, there was also a second agreement which allowed up to 400 pro-Assad fighters, who remained on the east side of the Euphrates following the 2017 battle against Islamic State, to remain. At least as long as their weren’t more than 400 of them and they remained peaceful. But exactly that was no longer the case.
Among those stationed in Tabiya was a small contingent of Russian mercenaries. But the two militia sources said they did not participate in the fighting. Still, they said, 10 to 20 of them did in fact lose their lives. They said a total of more than 200 of the attackers died, including around 80 Syrian soldiers with the 4th Division, around 100 Iraqis and Afghans and around 70 tribal fighters, mostly with the al-Baqir militia.
It all happened at night, and the situation became extremely complicated when the fighters from Tabiya entered the fray. A staffer at the only major hospital in Deir ez-Zor would later say that around a dozen Russian bodies were delivered. An employee at the airport, meanwhile, later witnessed the delivery of the bodies in two Toyota pickup trucks to a waiting Russian transport aircraft that then flew to Qamishli, an airport near the Syrian border in the north.
In the days that followed, the identities of the Russians killed would be revealed — first of six and ultimately nine. Eight had been verified by the Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian investigative platform, and another was released by the radio station Echo Moscow. All were employees of the private mercenary company Evro Polis, which is often referred to by the nom du guerre of its head: “Wagner.”
At the same time, however, a completely different version of events has gained traction — disseminated at first by Russian nationalists like Igor “Strelkov” Girkin, and then by others associated with the Wagner unit. According to those accounts, many more Russians had been killed in the battle — 100, 200, 300 or as many as 600. An entire unit, it was said, had been wiped out and the Kremlin wanted to cover it up. Recordings of alleged fighters even popped up apparently confirming these horrendous losses.
It was a version that sounded so plausible that even Western news agencies like Reuters and Bloomberg picked it up. The fact that the government in Moscow at first didn’t want to confirm any deaths and then spoke of five “Russian citizens” killed and later, nebulously, of “dozens of injured,” some of whom had died, only seemed to make the version of events seem more credible. It has generally been the case, after all, that when something in the Syrian war is denied by the Kremlin, or when the Russians admit to it bit by bit, then it is probably accurate. Besides, Russian losses in Syria are constantly played down.
Relations between the Russian mercenaries in Syria — it is thought there are more than 2,000 of them — and the government in Moscow have been tense for some time. The fighters claim they are being used as cannon fodder, are being kept quiet and are poorly paid. For them to now accuse the Kremlin of trying to cover up the fact that Russians were killed — by the Americans, of all people — hits President Vladimir Putin’s government in a weak spot: its credibility.
The only verifiable sources for the decimation of hundreds of Russians are the photos and videos circulating on the internet or from Russian sources that are passed on to Western journalists. Some of them show footage from eastern Ukraine that was later doctored or even the demo version of a video game that Putin personally showed to Hollywood director Oliver Stone as alleged proof of a Russian attack on an IS convoy.
The situation on the ground between Khusham and Tabiya on the eastern bank of the Euphrates, described by a half dozen witnesses and people who were party to the events, does not confirm Russian mercenary participation in the attack or even that they joined the fighting at all. Ahmad Ramadan, the journalist who founded the Euphrates Post and has since emigrated to Turkey, comes from Tabiya. One of his contacts fights for the al-Baqir militia and took the video at the site of the bombings. “If it had been a Russian attack, with many Russian dead, we would have reported about it,” he said. “But it wasn’t. The Russians in Tabiya just had the bad luck of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.”
Much more at the link.
148.
hueyplong
Mueller and his crew aren’t watching CNN.
The airstrike footage makes it difficult to hear the tick tock, but it continues apace.
149.
guachi
@Marcopolo: I find it very surprising that Pence didn’t know. Seems like a breakdown in communication that they wouldn’t tell Pence. I’m sure they could get a secure channel to tell him.
150.
Peale
@lamh36: yep. We think your government mistreats you…so to help you out, we’re blowing off your children’s arms.
@SulomeAnderson
11m11 minutes ago
More
“Hezbollah is preparing for war,” as a source in Dahieh just put it. People on both sides of the Lebanese-Israeli border should probably start getting nervous right around now. #SyriaStrikes are happening at a very tense time in the Levant. High risk of the conflict spreading. https://twitter.com/SulomeAnderson/status/984969694917480448
House Dem Ro Khanna (D-CA): "This strike is unconstitutional and is a dangerous escalation of the conflict in Syria. The American people deserve a vote on whether we go to war with Syria, and potentially Russia and Iran."
Not liking this “our noble warriors” trope, especially in a “business” rather than “inspirational” speech.
155.
jl
@Another Scott: if GOP Congress decides to turn on him to save a few seats after the primaries are over, just throw that one into the bill of impeachment.
@Cheryl Rofer: The President as CINC has the right to take action in the absence of Congressional approval in an emergency.* If someone could point me at the emergency, I would appreciate it.
@Cheryl Rofer: Scary thing is, during GOP primary season, GOPers in Congress will do absolutely nothing to reign in Trump. Just cheer him on until they get their tickets punched for the general, and then look to see how well or badly various strikes and war scares have gone down with the public, and then think about what to do.
Very dangerous situation.
Edit: I remind myself periodically that our federal government has become in many ways, completely depraved. But it’s kind of abstract, Times like these bring that feeling home with force.
@Omnes Omnibus: Judging from Trump’s earlier tweet, I have no doubt that he feels it’s an emergency. Probably not the kind you’re talking about, though.
164.
Adam L Silverman
@Gravenstone: I would hope not. It’s going to be bad enough if we have to take out those Russian batteries.
165.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: The last reporting I saw was that we were striking in that area. So… Also, Assad’s brother is commander of the Republican Guard and we’ve been striking at them too.
166.
danielx
Trump told the nation in his address the US “cannot purge the world of evil or act everywhere there is tyranny.”
A working national media not beholden to access privileges would be asking why Trump felt it necessary to give Russia a heads up that he was planning to strike Syria, an ally of Russia.
Doesn’t that make sense for once, though? Not wanting to kill the soldiers of a nuclear-armed superpower?
Looks like some of the known chemical weapons facilities and airfields are being hit. This is effective only because Obama chose disarmament of Syria’s cw rather than strikes.
I don’t follow this logic?
175.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: @raven: If I had to guess, if pushed, the claim will be to reinforce the international conventions against the use of chemical weapons.
176.
TS
@lamh36: Agreed, but some of her guests were – she was fighting back.
177.
jl
@Chris: Yes, it does make sense. But it also is completely inconsistent with Trump’s stated approach to military action, and I think no problem in pointing that out. If Trump and Putin are running a cover, and this is deadly and vicious, and dangerous and deeply immoral Kabuki theater, we can be glad of that, given the fix that we are in. We don’t want this to devolve into a ‘Cruise Missiles of April’ situation.
That doesn’t make Trump actions (I refuse to say policy or plan) wrt to Syria OK. Doesn’t make corrupt and illegal explicit or implicit cooperation with Russia in 2016 election OK. It doesn’t make fraudulent and dishonest foreign policy OK.
I’m not buying into any bogus and weak ‘whataboutism’ on Trump or anything he says or does.
@Adam L Silverman: So, unless news reports are incorrect, UK and France will conduct another wave or two on their own? Won’t Donny fell unmanned and left out, out gunned by a girl and a French sissy man? Won’t Bolton’s ‘stache get into a hell of a war envy itch?
184.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: That is unclear. Until it is reported otherwise, this operation is done. Basically 2 hours or so and head for the barn.
185.
Mike in NC
If Trump decides it’s more fun to blow shit up than it is to play golf, things could get problematic.
186.
Adam L Silverman
This is good news:
Dunford: only aware of Syrian air defenses. No Russian air defenses.
Also, from what Gen Dunford stated at the press briefing, this was a very limited set. So I think we’ll find that the reports of striking Hezbullah sites are erroneous. Pretty much this was a very minimalist targeting set. If what Gen Dunford has indicated is correct, then Bolton lost on this. Bigly!
As Adam pointed out, was it only two days ago, a heads up to Putin, is a head’s up to Assad, which is why the Syrian’s moved all their major assets into the shadow’s of Russian human shields.
188.
BroD
Stay frosty!
What did you do when it all fell apart, Daddy?
I stayed frosty, dear.
189.
Adam L Silverman
@BroD: You really want me to end these types of posts with: “Run around like a headless chicken that’s on fire!”?
190.
Adam L Silverman
And now a word from the home office:
BREAKING: Russian Ambassador to the US says in response to strikes on Syria, "We warned that such actions will not be left without consequences" – @ABC
@Corner Stone: Not Cheryl, but presumably we knew more about where Assad kept his chemical weapons as a result of Assad agreeing to give them up. So, Donnie and Jimmie [k]new the coordinates to plug into the Tomahawks guidance computers with better precision and accuracy than those based on just satellite images or Curveball’s reports.
Ok, having said that…yes, there are certain parallels…
193.
Corner Stone
@Another Scott: That sounds like a prelude to an Apology Tour. We backed off the “Red Line” when RUS agreed to handle the removal/destruction of CW. If we knew where these CW manufacturing plants were then why weren’t there steps to enforce their removal? I guess we can keep responding each time they kill 40 kids.
194.
Amir Khalid
@TenguPhule:
Surely you are not surprised. Trump is only pretend-tough, because Lord knows he could never manage the real thing.
The deal, the result of three days of talks between the US and Russia in Geneva, requires Syria to provide a comprehensive list of its chemical weapons within a week and to allow inspectors into the country by November. Chemical weapons stockpiles are to be removed or destroyed by the middle of next year.
“This framework provides the opportunity for the elimination of Syrian chemical weapons in a transparent, expeditious, and verifiable manner, which could end the threat these weapons pose not only to the Syrian people but to the region and the world,” the US president said. “The international community expects the Assad regime to live up to its public commitments.”
The agreement effectively confirms that US military strikes against Syria, which just six days ago Washington was indicating were imminent, will not happen in the short term. The White House announced earlier in the week that it had put on hold an attempt to request authorisation for military force from Congress.
However Obama, who has repeatedly shifted his position on Syria over the past fortnight, maintained on Saturday that punitive force might still be used against Syria in the future, saying there should be “consequences” for Bashar al-Assad’s government if it did not comply with the deal.
Part of the problem with this agreement, as I understand it, is that chlorine isn’t included (it’s too important for disinfecting, etc., as Cheryl pointed out). And chlorine is very easy to make (compared to the other nasty stuff).
The framing of this in the press was too often irresponsible, but Obama got a good deal and he didn’t take military strikes off the table. However, Trump has been doing nothing sensible to enforce the agreement – it’s all him playing soldier and Big Man for TV. I agree with you that at this point Assad is going to keep doing what he’s doing as long as the “punishment” is just an hour or two of bombing runs.
Assad, like his father, is in a fight to the death. He will use every weapon he has if he thinks it will help him hold on to power (via accomplishing actual military objectives against fighters, or simply terrorizing the civilian population into giving up). I hope the people setting policy realize that and construct policy goals with that in mind… How far are we willing to go to “win” in Syria? How willing are we to confront Iran and Turkey there? What should our policy goals be? Dunno – that’s all above my pay grade. But perpetual annual bombing runs doesn’t seem like a reasonable way to achieve a negotiated settlement.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
196.
James E. Powell
Have any of the Beltway Courtiers declared that Trump became president today? Should we expect the usual wave of op-eds praising Trump for his show of resolve, with the obligatory negative remarks about Obama?
Marc Thiessen, of course—“a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush.” Fuck ’im.
199.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
How long has thee white christian world been fighting/attacking/marginalizing the entire middle east? Considering that white conservatives from many parts of the world have been getting their war on there for a long time, it seems like the practice is not working. But then conservatives have not been known for their short/medium/long term strategic thinking concerning, well anything.
200.
mapaghimagsik
@Adam L Silverman: Any bets that those reprisals will be on British and French assets, people and cities?
@Corner Stone: Another Scott’s answers are pretty much what I would have said if I hadn’t gone to bed. A few additional thoughts.
Obama threatened strikes, and then Russia persuaded Assad to join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and give up (most) of his chemical arsenal. At the time, there were many more facilities and weapons in Syria than there are today. It was not a Russian effort to remove and destroy those weapons, but an international one overseen by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Off the top of my head, it included UK, France, Germany, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. I may have left some out. Hundreds of tons of agents were removed and destroyed. Some of the facilities that produced them were disabled. We learned more about what facilities were there, and we knew that Assad hadn’t given everything up. But it’s hard to do all that during a civil war. In fact, I had an op-ed in the Globe and Mail in May 2013 saying that the cw was a danger in the civil war and that removing it would be extremely difficult.
At that time, we didn’t know all of Assad’s facilities. There were enormous stocks of agents and precursors. So the numbers of strikes would have had to be much larger than last night’s, and releases of deadly material would have been likely. One of the precursors is fairly deadly itself, although not so much as Sarin. So it would have had to have been a much larger campaign, and probably a significant number of civilians would have died. Even with that, we wouldn’t have known that we had taken everything out, and Assad would have continued to use what he could.
So the removal and destruction of hundreds of tons of agents and precursors, the disabling of facilities, left a few that could be hit in a strike like last night’s.
As Scott noted, most of what Assad has been using lately is chlorine. It is in a different category under the CWC than the nerve agents, because it is dual-use: absolutely necessary for water purification. Its use in war is a war crime. I get really annoyed at the continuing complaints that it should have been removed along with the nerve agents and precursors, because those complaints indicate that the person complaining doesn’t know what s/he is talking about. Additionally, it’s fairly easy to rig up an electrolysis setup to produce chlorine from salt, and you don’t need anywhere near the safety precautions for producing nerve agents.
As Scott noted, this is a fight for survival for Assad, and he will use what he feels he needs to. I think the whole deterrence argument is flawed, but I won’t go into that now except to say that Assad’s latest attack was in the same area as the attack in August 2013. Looks like Assad’s use of chemical weapons had maybe five years of deterrent effect, or maybe less than that.
202.
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: Thank you for the elaboration. Co-sign.
Cheers,
Scott.
Comments are closed.
Share this ArticleLike this article? Email it to a friend!
Corner Stone
This fucking guy.
khead
Dude looks like Chet from Weird Science.
Corner Stone
A Putin name check!
guachi
I was going to post earlier that the chance of Trump not firing Rosenstein was the same as Trump not bombing Syria but I didn’t get my post in on time.
TenguPhule
War Crimes in Progress. This time as farce.
Corner Stone
What is this, some kind of bribe offer?
PhoenixRising
There’s the tail. Now watch the dog.
Baud
I assume this time he’s finally become presidential…
lamh36
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
Complaining about Russia? Ingrate.
TenguPhule
@Corner Stone:
For whom?
Marcopolo
Word of explosions heard in Damascus? That would be an escalation.
Corner Stone
“Precision strikes”
Mike in NC
When will the tail wag the dog scenario happen? 24-48 hours?
TenguPhule
@Baud:
Today was the day that Donald truly became Fuhrer.
Elizabelle
I like the pee-yellow and white roses over his left shoulder. Nice touch.
Yellow’s his color. Major component of orange.
Elizabelle
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Yeah. Did he clear that one with the home office?
Suzanne
I am here at the ED with SuzMom, who is behaving loopy AF and in significant pain. She had encephalitis in 2007 and was acting just the same as she did today. Apparently herpes simplex encephalitis can recur.
Weird shit.
I have spent too much time at this ED.
SiubhanDuinne
He never even saw those words before, did he?
Betty Cracker
What a fucking clown.
Cheryl Rofer
The recent chemical strikes have been with chlorine. If he is targeting chlorine plants or stocks, that will be a humanitarian disaster, because chlorine is necessary for water purification.
Rob
So has he actually announced anything?
eta: I ask because I missed the beginning announcement, I am reading now, and all I heard was blather. So, never mind. Late to the party, again.
hilts
@lamh36:
Hey, there’s a first for everything. Hopefully, there’ll be enough evidence to dump this shit for brains President by November.
jl
I’ll read the transcript later. Decision executed right now or already anyway. The idea of this vile crook making life-and-death decisions is disgusting.
Josh Marshall has a twitter tweet saying Mattis went along because Trumps loose cannon tweets committed us to do something. On other hand, looks like France and UK cooperating, not that in an of itself means it is a wise or responsible action. News I see says ‘precision strikes’. Hope it is largely symbolic, like last time. I don’t want an complete incompetent ass like Trump making any important decisions.
Edit: I’ll request AS give us an assessment of Matti’s ethics and competence after we see what happened and the fall out.
Elizabelle
Wheels up on AF 1 to Mar a Loco in 45 minutes. (I’m guessing.)
And no Rosenstein firing, this hour.
lamh36
NotMax
Wondering if Turkey agreed to U.S. assault planes taking off from Incirlik.
Baud
@jl: That’s my thinking too.
JWR
@Corner Stone: “Precision strikes”? Sounds more like he was announcing a full on war. Also too, will he tweet-fire Rosentein later tonight?
guachi
If it’s Navy ships and Tomahawks it probably doesn’t matter.
chopper
“I’m ordering rod rosenstein be stuck on the front of a cruise missile and fired into syria. two birds, amirite?”
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer:
Trump’s constant is always the worst possible thing.
SiubhanDuinne
@Suzanne:
Oh Suze, so sorry. That just sucks. Big hugs, and a strong Adult Beverage of Your Choice when you eventually get home.
Waldo
Don’t you guys know it’s wrong to criticize the commander in chief while our missles are in harm’s way?
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: England and France are participating, so hopefully the strike will be relatively sane.
TenguPhule
@Betty Cracker:
Stop libeling clowns.
debbie
When this turns out to have been the wrong thing to do, it will of course be Obama’s fault.
germy
This strike… Drumpf’s philosophy is to get in and get out real quick, right?
Like with Stormy?
lamh36
Rob
@AFP
5m5 minutes ago
#BREAKING Huge blasts heard in Syria’s capital
Adam L Silverman
Here’s the twitter account for the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF OIR) Public Affairs Officer/Spokesperson:
https://twitter.com/oirspox?lang=en
Here’s the link to CJTF OIR’s strike summaries:
http://www.inherentresolve.mil/News/Strike-Releases/
Here’s US Air Force Central:
https://twitter.com/USAFCENT
TenguPhule
@Baud:
Baud, Baud, Baud.
Remember who’s ordering all this shit.
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
Wasn’t Syria evacuating airbases in the past few days in response to Trump telegraphing this?
debbie
@Suzanne:
Very scary. Best thoughts for your mom.
TenguPhule
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Yes, Adam reported they all moved into Russian held areas.
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
@lamh36: Damn.
Suzanne
@SiubhanDuinne: It’s creepy. She doesn’t know what year it is, what day it is, the pets’ names. And I’ve had to tell her at least 15 times that Trump is the president and she is horrified every time, which is simultaneously funny and really upsetting.
Cheryl Rofer
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman: If Russia made good on their jamming threats and those missiles miss their targets, its gonna get ugly.
Tilda Swintons Bald Cap
Bolton wanted “ruinous” strike.
Cheryl Rofer
PeakVT
This timeline sucks so much.
Spanky
Haven’t seen any announcements from France or Britain. Do they know they’re involved in this?
Aaand there we go. Cyprus is the logical staging point, at least for the Brits.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
Damn, Friday the 13th is really living up to it’s name this time.
Gin & Tonic
I missed the part where Congress authorized this, as is their Constitutional duty.
jl
@TenguPhule: Even if it turns out to be disgusting and corrupt Kabuki theater, it is not OK. GOP needs to be politically obliterated in this country, and Trumpsters out of office in disgrace, and those guilty of crime need to go to jail asap. Won’t happen soon though.
Adam L Silverman
@jl: Mattis’s job is to serve as one of the President’s two senior and principal military advisor. The other one is Gen Dunford, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Their job is to present the President with options and plans, argue for what they think is the best one or the one with the greatest likelihood of success and that best mitigates risk, and then execute the decision made by the President. So there isn’t really an ethical issue here unless the President issued orders that are illegal and/or unethical. Say the deliberate targeting of non-combatants and civilians.
The Pentagon will be holding a 10 PM press conference. I’ll put up a live feed if I can find it. We should know more about the target set then.
Spanky
@Suzanne: My mother got the same way until they adjusted some meds. Hope you have the same easy outcome.
Cheryl Rofer
TenguPhule
@Gin & Tonic:
I’m so old I remember when Syria military action had to be called off because Congress wouldn’t authorize or fund the mission.
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: One cannot libel clowns. Nor can one slander them.
PhoenixRising
@Suzanne: Oh dear. You’re in our thoughts.
Telling my mom that Trump was still POTUS after her seizure was more than I had in me–had to stop a neurologist from asking her if she understood. In retrospect, I was probably too aggressive with the kid–she was just a resident–when I asked if she had lost her mind, why would you ask someone who’s ill a dangerous question like that?
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Freudian slip?
guachi
@lamh36:
The plan to bomb Syria wouldn’t have been made in less than a day. This plan had to have been in the works for longer than that.
lamh36
@Spanky:
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus: I submit that Donald Trump tests that school of thought to the breaking point.
Adam L Silverman
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Yes.
mad citizen
@lamh36: Can’t some V for Vendetta group take over the FOx n Friends show/feed, just for a week?
jl
@Adam L Silverman: Well, there may be an irreconcilable difference between us here. It’s come to the point that I think anyone doing anything that Trump decides is unethical, because that is evidence on its face that the decision is incompetent, unethical and corrupt.
I suppose Mattis and Dunford telling Trump to shut up and do what they recommend is a high bar, and there is a conflict of laws issue there, wrt to Constitution. Not much room of a win-win deal in the making.
Suzanne
@Spanky: She has a history of this.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: No, just not paying attention. I just fixed it. Thanks.
TenguPhule
@jl: If they’re targeting Chlorine storage, they’re targeting drinking water utilities.
Elizabelle
@Suzanne: Tell her Obama is still president. Maybe she needs to relax. My best to you and your mom and family.
JWR
I don’t have cable. Has Brian Williams seen any “beautiful” missile launches yet?
lamh36
germy
Elizabelle
@Tilda Swintons Bald Cap: It’s his “Welcome John!” party. Scooter Libby pardon and an airstrike, all in his first week.
jl
@germy: The national security credibility fairy causes more mischief.
mad citizen
So I was reading TPM as my wife and I have the regular Fox network on–Masterchef Junior with kids cooking and Gordon Ramsey–no he doesn’t swear at them. I walked in the living room and told my wife Trumpov was going to speak at some point tonight to the nation. Then about 9:03 it just cut in and he was already talking. I had to laugh at the ineptness of Fox. Sean Hannity then appeared doing the post-talking, but our local affiliate cut in with their anchorwoman. I agree, it seemed like he was just seeing the words, like English is a second language. Terrible at giving these addresses. Just another Friday night in the sh1tshow in america.
PhoenixRising
The targets include urban ones, based on the practice runs executed in Albuquerque yesterday and last night. The USAF is always training!
(When we bought this house it was a major selling feature that it’s a 12 minute drive from my front door to the end of the security line at the commercial airport. However, it’s also adjacent to the military airfield.)
lamh36
NO Secretary of State and also…
Marcopolo
@guachi: Whelp, it is Trump and I have now read at least a couple accounts of senior staff being caught off-guard, including Pence in Peru.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: You too?
Attackerman at TheDailyBeast (from Tuesday):
(Via Attackerman on Twitter.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Gravenstone
@Cheryl Rofer: Not to mention the fact that any cylinders on site will be breached, releasing chlorine gas to the immediate area. If there is anything residential nearby – clusterfuck!
Amir Khalid
@Spanky:
Britain does. It’s reported on the BBC website’s front page.
TS
And the media is giving out all those positive vibes – the moron is being sainted – just as he wanted. Drop some bombs – forget the domestic scene.
Baud
@Another Scott: Kaine has been great on pushing Congress to resume its constitutional role on war issues.
Cheryl Rofer
Looks like some of the known chemical weapons facilities and airfields are being hit. This is effective only because Obama chose disarmament of Syria’s cw rather than strikes.
lamh36
Adam L Silverman
@guachi: You know that we have plans and sequels for everything.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Sounds positive, relatively speaking.
lamh36
NotMax
It’s early Saturday in Syria. Expect it may have been U.K. and France which common sense-wise balked at bombing a Muslim nation on a Friday.
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer: A radio commenter with a military background claims this is military theater. The location of the strike was so set that locals could protect their windows from blast vibration. Syrian and Russian military were allowed ample time to clear out.
And Putin lets Trump look tough.
germy
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman: I do not like this electric boogaloo.
Another Scott
@Baud: Yes. But he’s been doing it for years and too many others in the Senate don’t give a damn.
Grrr…
Cheers,
Scott.
Mandalay
@Tilda Swintons Bald Cap:
He’s had the job for just a few days and already he has got a pardon for Libby and is bombing lots of brown people.
I despise him, but from his perspective he’s having a terrific week.
Baud
@Brachiator: Just like last time.
Baud
@Another Scott: Agree.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I am sure that there are plans to attack the UK and France. I assume that they have plans to attack us.
Cheryl Rofer
@Brachiator: I’m going on early reports. We may hear otherwise as things proceed.
Mary G
Twitter says the president deleted the tweet issued earlier today that supposedly showed John Kelly at the end of the table with his face in his hand. You couldn’t make this up, except Dr. Strangelove, I guess.
TenguPhule
@Baud:
So Trump endangers American and allied planes to attack empty targets and give Syria’s AA some badly needed practice?
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
@guachi: How much advance notice would the actual order need?
I know how idiotic I sound. This required planning and coordination with the UK and France. But, you know, Trump.
Adam L Silverman
Baud
@TenguPhule: Looking that way. We’ll find out more tomorrow.
Ella in New Mexico
Sounds like Mattis is saving all our asses tonight. Remember to thank him later, folks.
Elizabelle
I am still way more concerned with US domestic issues. Rosenstein, protecting Mueller, an exhaustive investigation into what Team Mueller finds. This octopus has a lot of tentacles.
RE Syria: they gassed civilians. Obama probably would have done something too, only with Congress’s backing. This is theatre.
It won’t work WRT knocking Comey’s book and Cohen raid off the front page. All that stuff still goes on. Tick tock.
Adam L Silverman
PeakVT
Thanks, Comey, for enabling this. The rate of senseless killing in the Middle East was at risk of being too low.
NotMax
Wag the velociraptor.
lamh36
@TS: To her credit, Maddow is NOT…CNN has never seen a war missile they didn’t want to cover in an overboard manner tho…I quickly cut off AC360
Chet Murthy
One says to oneself that here’s another reason refugees come to America: it’s the only goddam place where the US military doesn’t feel free to throw down at the slightest provocation. Here, it’s just the fuckin’ cops.
ETA: and of course, every goddam testosterone-poisoned asshole. But they’re not exactly a military force, so there’s that.
lamh36
Ella in New Mexico
@Cheryl Rofer: and that will be the only thing I ever hold against Barack Obama.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
I assume those plans have been dusted off and are now updated in real time.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: Can’t link or embed, but in August of 2013, Trump tweeted “Obama needs Congressional approval.”
Ruckus
@Suzanne:
Sorry about your mom, hope she gets better soon. Had encephalitis as a child, not from the same virus, from measles.
@PhoenixRising:
Sometimes the best learned lessons are the ones learned the hard way.
TenguPhule
@lamh36:
Slightly longer then expected. He must be losing his touch.
Ella in New Mexico
@Suzanne: I recently had a patient with the same diagnosis. Thank God for IV antivirals. Hope she gets well soon.
Another Scott
Via Attackerman on Twitter. ProtectDemocracy:
Grrr….
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@germy: So what the fuck you going to do about it, Bob?
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I would expect so.
Adam L Silverman
Baud
@Gin & Tonic: He’s still in the minority.
Adam L Silverman
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: Sounds less positive.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman: First pilot to get shot down is gonna get butchered by the locals before we can retrieve them.
Adam L Silverman
We’re now at war with Russia!
TenguPhule
@Baud:
Baud, Master of Understatement.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: Didn’t we kill hundreds of their mercenaries recently?
Gravenstone
@Adam L Silverman: Wonder if we’re targeting Syrian assets on Russian bases?
rikyrah
@Suzanne:
Sending up positive thoughts and prayers ?. May the doctors get it under control soon.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Of course.
Cheryl Rofer
I hope this report is not accurate.
Cheryl Rofer
Tilda Swintons Bald Cap
@Another Scott: He can, and he did.
chopper
@TenguPhule:
also, russia’s threats to strike back at the source of any missiles.
lamh36
rikyrah
@germy:
Truth
Mandalay
@Spanky:
I have the very strong impression that Britain and France were far more determined than Trump to attack Syria.
I would not be surprised to learn that Trump’s timetable was driven by them, in that they were going to proceed with or without Trump’s support. (I could be wildly incorrect on that of course – just speculation.)
chopper
@Gin & Tonic:
as always, there’s a trump tweet on that exact subject.
danielx
@Baud:
Can’t be a Republican and be presidential without bombing some brown people, doncha know.
Ruckus
@lamh36:
I’m wondering if not having a Sec of the VA is better than having a drumpf partisan running the VA. I know that some things are falling through the cracks as of a little over a year ago, I expect it to get a lot worse. I’m glad I don’t have any major long term healthcare needs as a user of the VA services. Oh fucking wait……….
Cheryl Rofer
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: Maybe.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/american-fury-the-truth-about-the-russian-deaths-in-syria-a-1196074.html
Much more at the link.
hueyplong
Mueller and his crew aren’t watching CNN.
The airstrike footage makes it difficult to hear the tick tock, but it continues apace.
guachi
@Marcopolo: I find it very surprising that Pence didn’t know. Seems like a breakdown in communication that they wouldn’t tell Pence. I’m sure they could get a secure channel to tell him.
Peale
@lamh36: yep. We think your government mistreats you…so to help you out, we’re blowing off your children’s arms.
danielx
@Adam L Silverman:
Fucking great. Remember all that Villager bitching about ‘no-drama Obama’? I would prefer my news less interesting.
lamh36
@Adam L Silverman:
Cheryl Rofer
Steeplejack
Not liking this “our noble warriors” trope, especially in a “business” rather than “inspirational” speech.
jl
@Another Scott: if GOP Congress decides to turn on him to save a few seats after the primaries are over, just throw that one into the bill of impeachment.
Peale
@lamh36: we really have elected the anti Christ.
Cheryl Rofer
It’s good to see Democrats coming out with statements, but they probably won’t have much effect.
Cheryl Rofer
Transcript of Trump remarks.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cheryl Rofer: The President as CINC has the right to take action in the absence of Congressional approval in an emergency.* If someone could point me at the emergency, I would appreciate it.
*Vastly simplified.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: red line
Cheryl Rofer
jl
@Cheryl Rofer: Scary thing is, during GOP primary season, GOPers in Congress will do absolutely nothing to reign in Trump. Just cheer him on until they get their tickets punched for the general, and then look to see how well or badly various strikes and war scares have gone down with the public, and then think about what to do.
Very dangerous situation.
Edit: I remind myself periodically that our federal government has become in many ways, completely depraved. But it’s kind of abstract, Times like these bring that feeling home with force.
Cheryl Rofer
@Omnes Omnibus: Judging from Trump’s earlier tweet, I have no doubt that he feels it’s an emergency. Probably not the kind you’re talking about, though.
Adam L Silverman
@Gravenstone: I would hope not. It’s going to be bad enough if we have to take out those Russian batteries.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: The last reporting I saw was that we were striking in that area. So… Also, Assad’s brother is commander of the Republican Guard and we’ve been striking at them too.
danielx
Hell, we haven’t been able to do it here.
efgoldman
@Another Scott:
Yup. Absolutely correct.
So what?
Congress gonna’ sue to bring the missiles back?
lamh36
FUQ U WashPo…Opinion page.
Adam L Silverman
@lamh36: Pretty much.
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: Justifying military action without Congressional approval?
Adam L Silverman
@lamh36: We’ve apparently hit their sites in Syria. So this doesn’t surprise me. Israel’s been itching for another go at them as well.
Additionally: strikes on Hezbullah and Iranian targets in Syria are likely the result of Bolton’s recommendations.
Peale
@lamh36: don’t ever change, WaPo.
Chris
@lamh36:
Doesn’t that make sense for once, though? Not wanting to kill the soldiers of a nuclear-armed superpower?
Corner Stone
@Cheryl Rofer:
I don’t follow this logic?
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: @raven: If I had to guess, if pushed, the claim will be to reinforce the international conventions against the use of chemical weapons.
TS
@lamh36: Agreed, but some of her guests were – she was fighting back.
jl
@Chris: Yes, it does make sense. But it also is completely inconsistent with Trump’s stated approach to military action, and I think no problem in pointing that out. If Trump and Putin are running a cover, and this is deadly and vicious, and dangerous and deeply immoral Kabuki theater, we can be glad of that, given the fix that we are in. We don’t want this to devolve into a ‘Cruise Missiles of April’ situation.
That doesn’t make Trump actions (I refuse to say policy or plan) wrt to Syria OK. Doesn’t make corrupt and illegal explicit or implicit cooperation with Russia in 2016 election OK. It doesn’t make fraudulent and dishonest foreign policy OK.
I’m not buying into any bogus and weak ‘whataboutism’ on Trump or anything he says or does.
Ruckus
@danielx:
Seeing as how the person we need to be checking the closest is the most tyrannical one…….
Corner Stone
@Adam L Silverman:
Didn’t Israel get their ass kicked through an asymmetric response last time that they were not prepared for?
cwmoss
@Baud: It is so sad that this is what we’re saying. I had the same thought when I read of France/UK participation.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone: Bibi and the members of his coalition are not the sharpest chopsticks in the plastic spoon drawer.
Adam L Silverman
And we’re done!
jl
@Adam L Silverman: So, unless news reports are incorrect, UK and France will conduct another wave or two on their own? Won’t Donny fell unmanned and left out, out gunned by a girl and a French sissy man? Won’t Bolton’s ‘stache get into a hell of a war envy itch?
Adam L Silverman
@jl: That is unclear. Until it is reported otherwise, this operation is done. Basically 2 hours or so and head for the barn.
Mike in NC
If Trump decides it’s more fun to blow shit up than it is to play golf, things could get problematic.
Adam L Silverman
This is good news:
Also, from what Gen Dunford stated at the press briefing, this was a very limited set. So I think we’ll find that the reports of striking Hezbullah sites are erroneous. Pretty much this was a very minimalist targeting set. If what Gen Dunford has indicated is correct, then Bolton lost on this. Bigly!
Jay
@Chris:
As Adam pointed out, was it only two days ago, a heads up to Putin, is a head’s up to Assad, which is why the Syrian’s moved all their major assets into the shadow’s of Russian human shields.
BroD
What did you do when it all fell apart, Daddy?
I stayed frosty, dear.
Adam L Silverman
@BroD: You really want me to end these types of posts with: “Run around like a headless chicken that’s on fire!”?
Adam L Silverman
And now a word from the home office:
Another Scott
@Corner Stone: Not Cheryl, but presumably we knew more about where Assad kept his chemical weapons as a result of Assad agreeing to give them up. So, Donnie and Jimmie [k]new the coordinates to plug into the Tomahawks guidance computers with better precision and accuracy than those based on just satellite images or Curveball’s reports.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@Peale:
point of order: THEY elected* the anti Christ
Ok, having said that…yes, there are certain parallels…
Corner Stone
@Another Scott: That sounds like a prelude to an Apology Tour. We backed off the “Red Line” when RUS agreed to handle the removal/destruction of CW. If we knew where these CW manufacturing plants were then why weren’t there steps to enforce their removal? I guess we can keep responding each time they kill 40 kids.
Amir Khalid
@TenguPhule:
Surely you are not surprised. Trump is only pretend-tough, because Lord knows he could never manage the real thing.
Another Scott
@Corner Stone: TheGuardian (from 2013):
Part of the problem with this agreement, as I understand it, is that chlorine isn’t included (it’s too important for disinfecting, etc., as Cheryl pointed out). And chlorine is very easy to make (compared to the other nasty stuff).
The framing of this in the press was too often irresponsible, but Obama got a good deal and he didn’t take military strikes off the table. However, Trump has been doing nothing sensible to enforce the agreement – it’s all him playing soldier and Big Man for TV. I agree with you that at this point Assad is going to keep doing what he’s doing as long as the “punishment” is just an hour or two of bombing runs.
Assad, like his father, is in a fight to the death. He will use every weapon he has if he thinks it will help him hold on to power (via accomplishing actual military objectives against fighters, or simply terrorizing the civilian population into giving up). I hope the people setting policy realize that and construct policy goals with that in mind… How far are we willing to go to “win” in Syria? How willing are we to confront Iran and Turkey there? What should our policy goals be? Dunno – that’s all above my pay grade. But perpetual annual bombing runs doesn’t seem like a reasonable way to achieve a negotiated settlement.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
James E. Powell
Have any of the Beltway Courtiers declared that Trump became president today? Should we expect the usual wave of op-eds praising Trump for his show of resolve, with the obligatory negative remarks about Obama?
jonas
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Yes, so the only people in harm’s way are civilians, natch.
Steeplejack
@lamh36:
Marc Thiessen, of course—“a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush.” Fuck ’im.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
How long has thee white christian world been fighting/attacking/marginalizing the entire middle east? Considering that white conservatives from many parts of the world have been getting their war on there for a long time, it seems like the practice is not working. But then conservatives have not been known for their short/medium/long term strategic thinking concerning, well anything.
mapaghimagsik
@Adam L Silverman: Any bets that those reprisals will be on British and French assets, people and cities?
Cheryl Rofer
@Corner Stone: Another Scott’s answers are pretty much what I would have said if I hadn’t gone to bed. A few additional thoughts.
Obama threatened strikes, and then Russia persuaded Assad to join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and give up (most) of his chemical arsenal. At the time, there were many more facilities and weapons in Syria than there are today. It was not a Russian effort to remove and destroy those weapons, but an international one overseen by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Off the top of my head, it included UK, France, Germany, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. I may have left some out. Hundreds of tons of agents were removed and destroyed. Some of the facilities that produced them were disabled. We learned more about what facilities were there, and we knew that Assad hadn’t given everything up. But it’s hard to do all that during a civil war. In fact, I had an op-ed in the Globe and Mail in May 2013 saying that the cw was a danger in the civil war and that removing it would be extremely difficult.
At that time, we didn’t know all of Assad’s facilities. There were enormous stocks of agents and precursors. So the numbers of strikes would have had to be much larger than last night’s, and releases of deadly material would have been likely. One of the precursors is fairly deadly itself, although not so much as Sarin. So it would have had to have been a much larger campaign, and probably a significant number of civilians would have died. Even with that, we wouldn’t have known that we had taken everything out, and Assad would have continued to use what he could.
So the removal and destruction of hundreds of tons of agents and precursors, the disabling of facilities, left a few that could be hit in a strike like last night’s.
As Scott noted, most of what Assad has been using lately is chlorine. It is in a different category under the CWC than the nerve agents, because it is dual-use: absolutely necessary for water purification. Its use in war is a war crime. I get really annoyed at the continuing complaints that it should have been removed along with the nerve agents and precursors, because those complaints indicate that the person complaining doesn’t know what s/he is talking about. Additionally, it’s fairly easy to rig up an electrolysis setup to produce chlorine from salt, and you don’t need anywhere near the safety precautions for producing nerve agents.
As Scott noted, this is a fight for survival for Assad, and he will use what he feels he needs to. I think the whole deterrence argument is flawed, but I won’t go into that now except to say that Assad’s latest attack was in the same area as the attack in August 2013. Looks like Assad’s use of chemical weapons had maybe five years of deterrent effect, or maybe less than that.
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: Thank you for the elaboration. Co-sign.
Cheers,
Scott.