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You are here: Home / Politics / America / No Vice President Biden, the Military Will Not Remove the President If You’re Elected and He Refuses To Leave

No Vice President Biden, the Military Will Not Remove the President If You’re Elected and He Refuses To Leave

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During Vice President Biden’s interview by Trevor Noah on The Daily Show, Noah asked him what he thought would happen if the President refused to leave office if VP Biden is elected president in November. Vice President Biden ultimately replied that the military “would escort him from the White House with great dispatch”. You can watch the question and the answer beginning with Noah’s question at 1:41 of the video within the tweet below.

As you can see and hear for yourself, VP Biden contextualized his answer within all the push back the President has received over the past two weeks from retired general officers (GOs) and flag officers (FOs), as well as the statements issued by each of the currently serving Service chiefs, the currently serving Senior Enlisted Officers for each Service, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He also referenced the President’s standing with US military personnel in terms of their support.

While I appreciate Vice President Biden’s recognition that the President is setting the conditions to either not concede if he loses, to contest the election’s outcome if he doesn’t like it, or both, the simple reality is that the US military is NOT GOING TO REMOVE THE CURRENT PRESIDENT IF HE REFUSES TO CEDE POWER SHOULD VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN BE ELECTED TO REPLACE HIM!!!!!! And, perhaps, just as importantly, you DON’T WANT THEM TO DO SO!!!!!! The unprecedented popular criticism of a sitting president by retired senior military leaders may be boosting people’s spirits, but I can guarantee that those gentlemen, and so far they’ve all been men as I’ve not seen or heard one retired female general or admiral call the president out publicly, these retired senior military leaders don’t have the power or the authority to call out the troops to ensure a peaceful transition. The currently serving ones, no matter how much their retired colleagues’ and peers’ public statements have stiffened their resolve to push back against the President and his senior political appointees to ensure that the US military stays as much out of US politics as possible, are not going to operationally insert US military personnel into American politics by physically removing the President if he refuses to cede power to VP Biden should VP Biden defeat him in November.

I guarantee that the Service Chiefs, who don’t actually have any forces under their direct command with the exception of their staffs and the Service academies and senior leader colleges and schools, are going to do everything in their power to ensure that US Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines stay at their posts, at their home stations and in garrison. Civil-Military (CIV-MIL) relations, specifically that there is civilian control over the military through the elected president and his Senate confirmed senior political appointees, as well as through oversight conducted by elected members of both chambers of Congress, is something we work very, very hard to inculcate within US military personnel.

I spend a lot of time dealing with general officers and one specific admiral who used to be my boss/frontline supervisor. Many are retired, some are still serving. A few of the retirees have made public statements pushing back on the President. The most recent caught me unawares as I didn’t even know he had a Twitter account.

https://twitter.com/tanksrme16/status/1270804526711308288

I have spent a very large amount of time over the past thirteen years advising general officers, consulting for and with them, working for them, and teaching several senior colonels and captains that eventually went on to earn flag rank. And, as I’ve indicated before in comments, I have largely been very lucky as I’ve been fortunate to get to work with some of the very best who were excellent senior leaders and officers, but also wonderful people. And I know that isn’t always the case or, perhaps, even the norm. But one thing I’ve learned, one thing I know for certain, is that what we’ve been observing over the past several years as a few retired senior military leaders openly pushing back and criticizing the President and his senior appointees has now given way to well over a dozen, is unprecedented. We are in a unique moment. As we’ve discussed here ad nauseam since November 2016, the current president and his administration are something unique in the history of the US. My view of the public commentary and pushback by retired senior military leaders is that it too is unique. It is the result of this unique moment. At the same time it is not a signal that the US military is going to somehow take on the role of domestic protector of the political outcome aspects of American self government via our democratic-republic. And this is a good thing. We want a military, just like we want a Department of State and Department of Justice and FBI and other Federal law enforcement and the Intelligence Community and the rest of the Federal government to report to, take lawful orders from, and submit to oversight from the duly elected officials of the United States regardless of what party those officials are from.

I am very glad that Vice President Biden seems to be taking the signals that the President, his senior advisors and surrogates, his supporters, his base, and the conservative news, social, and digital media ecosystem is sending that seek to delegitimize the 2020 elections at all levels before a single general election ballot has even been cast. And I’m taking VP Biden’s statements on this as a sign that his campaign is also taking it seriously. I know a number of outside groups are also doing so. Some of them involve strategies to get out the vote so the result is overwhelming and not close enough to be contested or hijacked. Others are developing legal strategies for how to respond as the five months between now and the election and the seven months until the next inauguration tick away. My professional estimate as a subject matter expert in low intensity warfare is, should things go really wrong in regard to the President and the Republican Party at all levels of government contesting the election, even before the election occurs, that get out the vote and legal strategies will be important, but insufficient. Others have made public their specific concerns. Perhaps the US Secret Service will politely, but firmly escort the President to Marine One for his last flight on what would normally be designated Air Force One, but because he would no longer be president would be identified as the 89th Airlift Wing’s Special Air Mission, but the military isn’t going to suddenly emerge to ensure that a newly inaugurated President Biden can move into the White House. And while that may be frustrating for people to read or hear, they should be glad that it won’t happen because it would make a constitutional crisis that much worse.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

144Comments

  3. 3.

    Anya

    That was such a dumb comment. What is happening in this country that we want to be like Turkey or Egypt where the military takes over. We seriously need to stop involving the military in politics. It’s not up to Trump to refuse to accept the vote.

  4. 4.

    Ken

    “Poor fellow, he thinks he’s the President. The ward staff plays along so he doesn’t throw things. When he gets really bad we give him an extra pudding cup.”

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anya:

    It’s not up to Trump to refuse to accept the vote.

    Correct. That’s Mitch McConnell’s job!

  6. 6.

    Ed Marshall

    If the electoral college convenes and elects a President that is the President Jan. 20th.

    He is the Commander-in-Chief.  The one person you know *isn’t* President on that date is Donald Trump whose term expired.  So…why would the military be refusing orders from Biden or accepting them from Trump?

  7. 7.

    M. Bouffant

    When I heard Biden say that I had to laugh. I assume that if Trump were to refuse to go he’d be handed over to the loser’s Secret Service detail and, if necessary, frog-marched right out. If not the Secret Service, whoever’s in charge of the physical White House, G.S.A. police, perhaps?

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Ed Marshall: It isn’t a matter of refusing orders. It is unless the newly inaugurated President Biden declares a state of emergency, calling the military out to handle something like this would be unconstitutional. In fact that’s really most of the problem as the Constitution is actually silent on what happens if a president refuses to accept the outcome of an election that he’s lost.

  9. 9.

    Mallard Filmore

    The easy answer is let Trump stay in the White House and then ignore him. Biden does not need to occupy that building in order to BE President. Cut the utilities, do not let ANYONE in. He will come out eventually.

    Tell any Republicans that survive the elections that if they wish to talk with him, Trump is welcome to go and see them.

  10. 10.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    My professional estimate as a subject matter expert in low intensity warfare is, should things go really wrong in regard to the President and the Republican Party at all levels of government contesting the election, even before the election occurs, that get out the vote and legal strategies will be important, but insufficient.

    If that’s the case, then what do you suggest should be done?

    If the protests these last few weeks are anything to go by, Trump either “winning” via the EC by obviously dubious means or refusing to recognize the results if he loses, I doubt a lot of people are going to have a ton of patience for him or the GOP bootlickers.

  12. 12.

    Dagaetch

    @Adam L Silverman: I mean, the Constitution is pretty clear that the term ends when it ends. Who starts the next term is the question. So really, the question is, at 12:00pm on January 20, does the military brass change over the nuclear command codes; and who do they go to for orders. I expect Biden was basically using an easily understandable shorthand. And anyway, there’s a part of me that thinks Trump will leave happily, because as an ex-President he still gets lots of fun things, and all the Twitter attention he craves, but none of the responsibility or actual work.

    One issue I wonder about that I haven’t seen discussed much, is how do the press and the new administration handle the former President NOT respecting tradition and keeping his mouth shut about his successor? That’s gonna be really annoying.

  13. 13.

    Gin & Tonic

    The last sentence of the third paragraph doesn’t scan well, seems to be missing a “not” of some sort.

  16. 16.

    Amir Khalid

    If in January Trump refuses to yield the presidency or leave the White House, does that amount to an offence, federal or otherwise, that he can be prosecuted for?

  18. 18.

    cain

    @Dagaetch: Trump will leave happily, because as an ex-President he still gets lots of fun things, and all the Twitter attention he craves, but none of the responsibility or actual work.

    Yep, give him a phone, an orange jumpsuit, and some bars, and I’m sure he’ll be just fine. The twitter posts just go into a fake world where machine learning bots just respond to them all day long.

    It’ll be like a episode of the Twilight Zone or Black Mirror.

    ETA: It’s not all that different than the world he lives in now.

  19. 19.

    Yutsano

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):  If he does not have 270 electoral college votes on January 9th, 2021, he is no longer the elected President. Once 0001 hits on January 20th, 2021, he is no longer the President. He becomes a private citizen (with Secret Service coverage) with no authority to be in the building. He would be a trespasser and would be treated as such.

  23. 23.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Dagaetch:

    And anyway, there’s a part of me that thinks Trump will leave happily, because as an ex-President he still gets lots of fun things, and all the Twitter attention he craves, but none of the responsibility or actual work.

    He can’t take the ego hit of becoming a loser.

    One issue I wonder about that I haven’t seen discussed much, is how do the press and the new administration handle the former President NOT respecting tradition and keeping his mouth shut about his successor? That’s gonna be really annoying.

    Based on how the news media handled the 2016 campaign, the past 3 and 1/2 years, and the 2020 campaign so far, I’m going to say not well.

  24. 24.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I would hope not. Trump should be recognized as not only an enemy of democracy but an abject failure as well. I’ve noticed the media has been criticizing him quite a bit over the last year or so, but especially since the pandemic and now these protests

  26. 26.

    New Deal democrat

    @Yutsano: and this gets to the point. The best people to escort Trump out of the WH on January 20 are the DC police.

    And I suspect they would be happy to carry out the task.

    p.s. Presuming the Secret Service stands aside – which I believe they would.

  30. 30.

    frosty

    @meryssa: Michelle will cut him.

    (Paraphrased from memory)

    Interviewer: What are you looking forward to after you leave the White House?

    Michelle: Opening a window.

  32. 32.

    CaseyL

    If I read your post correctly, you’re saying that military escort  of T* out of the White House won’t be necessary: the ordinary institutions of power transfer will suffice to render T* irrelevant, even if he refuses to acknowledge his loss.

    These are unprecedented times, though, and I don’t think ruling out a military action takes into account the extraordinary circumstances if T* refuses to give up the Presidency.

    T* is the front for a very rich, very powerful claque that sees him as their best hope to establish whatevertheHeil (sic) it is they want: an oligarchy, a fascist state, a white ethnostate, an antebellum America, a chaos-riven US that is no longer a rival of Russia or China.

    Quite aside from his own personal interests, giving up power may not be an option available to T* if the groups that have bankrolled and supported him say it isn’t.  They, not he, may be the arbiter of events.

    I don’t 100% trust the normal institutional response to react appropriately if T* refuses to give up power.  Why? Because very nearly all of our institutions have failed miserably in containing T’s brutality and corruption.  The reason they all failed is that they have all been suborned to one degree or another.

    When (please God) T* loses in November and (please please God) takes the GOP with him, the one thing I do not expect is a smooth, peaceful transfer of power.  Too many powerful interests have too much to lose.

  33. 33.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Should Democrats and leftists form their own militias/paramilitary groups to counter them? Right now, I’m at the point where I just want Trump’s violent supporters to get what’s coming to them and to be made an example of

  34. 34.

    Adam L Silverman

    @CaseyL:

    If I read your post correctly, you’re saying that military escort  of T* out of the White House won’t be necessary: the ordinary institutions of power transfer will suffice to render T* irrelevant, even if he refuses to acknowledge his loss.

    No, that’s not what I’ve written.

  35. 35.

    Amir Khalid

    @dmsilev:

    Is refusal to yield a federal office at the end of its term, or to vacate federal premises, also a violation of federal law?

  37. 37.

    FlyingToaster

    @meryssa: The 26th Amendment.  A vice president has to have the same qualifications as the president, plus being from a different state.

    The 26th was passed when FDR died during his 4th term.  No one can be in that office for more than 10 years.  As President Obama has already served 8 years, he’s ineligible to run for VP.  He’d probably be eligible to be Speaker of the House, but the sucession to the Presidency would have to leapfrog him to the President ProTem of the Senate.

  38. 38.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Keep in mind, I’m not actually advocating for violence. I’m just at a loss for what can be done to prevent what you fear Trump and his supporters might do. Believe me, I would much rather see this all end peacefully. I’m just becoming frustrated with the nutjobs

  40. 40.

    Eric U.

    Trump just said that he would leave peacefully. He always lies, but maybe not in this case.

    I assume that Biden will be the subject of a lot of death threats.  Probably not quite as many as Obama was. Trump is mostly just hot air, and he’s a wimp.  So when someone tells him it’s time to get on the helicopter, he’s going to go

  42. 42.

    FlyingToaster

    I was always under the impression that the removal from the premises, at the Federal Level, was to be handled by a combination of the local authority (Secret Service for the White House and Cabinet officials; Capitol Sergeant at Arms for the Capitol) and the US Marshal’s service.  I’m not aware of these plans have ever been implemented, but I am pretty sure that they get dusted off every four years, just in case.

  44. 44.

    Ken

    @Eric U.: Trump just said that he would leave peacefully.

    That means he’s figured out a way to steal the White House silver, and probably the Resolute desk.

  47. 47.

    CaseyL

    @Adam L Silverman: My bad.  You are correct; I read this sentence:

    Perhaps the US Secret Service will politely, but firmly escort the President to Marine One for his last flight out…

     

    … and thought that was dispositive. You mentioned groups who are strategizing worst case scenarios, but no specifics (not that I would expect you to), so institutional response was what I came away with.

  48. 48.

    Mai naem mobile

    I remember somebody saying it’s the US Marshalls who escort him out. I thought if he loses he’s not president on Jan 21st anymore and so doesn’t have any actual powers.

  49. 49.

    Ruckus

    The secret service protects the current president. Do they protect the ex presidents? They have been known to pick up the president and carry him forcefully to protect him, would they do the same to the ex president if he was staying where the new president belongs? My feeling is that one doesn’t need the military or the FBI or the DC police, inside the building. Would those charged with protecting and giving their lives if necessary, let shitforbrains stay? I’m doubting that would happen.

  50. 50.

    wmd

    @The Moar You Know:

    22nd amendment prohibits anyone from being elected President twice. It’s silent on a former 2 term president becoming President as a result of succeeding a President.

    Obama isn’t a woman and Biden has stated his VP will be a woman, so it’s not going to happen.

  51. 51.

    M. Bouffant

    @Yutsano: Noon. 1200 hrs. The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

  52. 52.

    Leto

    @Ruckus: What I want to know is: is Biden the president once he’s sworn-in? Is the swearing-in ceremony mandatory? Will the rest of the systems in place go swear-in Biden if Trumpov refuses to do anything? Everyone can say Biden is president on Jan 21st, but is he until the “I do” part?

  53. 53.

    Aziz, light!

    This is a pointless exercise. What’s more likely is that he’ll quit the day after the election. Why should he “work” a single day for people who don’t appreciate his greatness? The bigger question is whether Pence will give him a Get Out of Indictment Free card.

  54. 54.

    Butter Emails

    On January 21st Trump is no longer President. The Constitutional issue posed by having the military remove him from the White House at that point should be no greater than using MPs to bar any other civilian access to the Lincoln Memorial.

  55. 55.

    Eric U.

    The secret service does protect ex-presidents.

    Tulsa has the highest 7 day average number of new covid cases since the beginning.  And a plant just shut down because too many workers were infected.  So they’ll be able to go to Trump’s rally next week

  56. 56.

    wmd

    @FlyingToaster: 22nd Amendment. And it is silent on a VP becoming President via the 25th Amendment.

    26th is 18 year old get to vote, sponsored by the good Senator Bayh from IN, Birch Bayh.

  57. 57.

    Origuy

    I hope someone is watching the comings and goings at the Treasury Building in the days leading up to January 20. There is a tunnel from there to the West Wing. It was built during WWII in case they needed to get FDR out quietly.

  58. 58.

    lurker

    @M. Bouffant 

    @Amir Khalid

    @Yutsano

    Think the point is that the term ends at noon on the 20th, not at midnight.  Had to look it up, but Amendment XX specified this, and was adopted to allow for a better transition as a result of the delay in changeover from Hoover to FDR.  So, 1201, regardless of the type of clock you are using.

  59. 59.

    Viva BrisVegas

    @Yutsano: If he does not have 270 electoral college votes on January 9th, 2021, he is no longer the elected President.

    What if Trump appeals to a sympathetic Supreme Court against the results in one or two dozen states and the Electoral College is unable to assemble as per Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the US Constitution?

    Who is President?

  61. 61.

    CaseyL

    OK, here’s a what-if that I worry about in my more paranoid moments:  Betsy DeVos’ baby brother shows up with a few tens of thousands of mercs in mid- to late October (surprise!) “to ensure election security.”  Sends them to the blue states, where they start terrorizing residents.

    Is that an invasion?  Does the military come out to oppose it? What if the President – their C-in-C – tells them to stand down, that he approves of the invasion?  If a President approves of a military action against American citizens that utilizes a private army, and orders American military to do nothing, what does the military do?

  62. 62.

    lurker

    Seem to recall that Barry McCaffrey (sp?), referred to a president refusing to vacate the White House as a problem of a person being in the wrong place at the wrong time, and not something the military would need to sort out, that civilian authorities would be more than sufficient.  That statement by a retired general known to show up on news segments seems to fit with Adam’s general point, and to fit with the idea that our institutions should be able to handle this.  Fingers crossed and prayers or whatever other approach to fate that this turns out to be true.

  63. 63.

    James E Powell

    This is a bridge that I think we can cross when we come to it, or maybe when the crossing of it becomes definite on election day.

    And I’m not happy that Joe Biden or any Democrats are talking about this. Let the press/media ask Trump what he will do when he loses.

  64. 64.

    patrick II

    My own opinion on the Bolton book is that he could have testified before Congress and not hurt book sales at all. He could have added a chapter on the impeachment in the second printing and made even more. But aside from that , the hypocrisy is stunning . He accuses Trump of harming his country for money while Bolton himself harms his country for money.

    He could have been the patriot he pretends to be.

  67. 67.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Leto: It has been reported that the current administration has already failed to meet several of the transition milestones that have to be done in case they lose the election.

  68. 68.

    LongHairedWeirdo

    While I agree that the Army or Marines shouldn’t march into the White House to remove Trump, I don’t see where the Constitutional crisis exists. Trump’s term ends on inauguration day, 2021, and as of that instant, he’s a civilian in the White House with no authority.

    I do agree, the military is not the right entity to remove a trespasser; the local cops or Secret Service seem like the right people. Of course, while I haven’t read the Insurrection Act, an ex-President claiming to still be President is engaged in the very dictionary definition of insurrection (per DuckDuckGo: The act or an instance of open revolt against civil authority or a constituted government), so I’d expect that would be the sort of case where you can involve the military, but probably shouldn’t (sledgehammer/mosquito). So I’m not trying to be a pain here – I’m honestly not sure what point you’re making *IF* you’re talking about Trump not leaving, once his term expires.

    If Trump refuses to allow access to transition teams, *that* would be a constitutional crisis – at that point, he’s still President and allowed to give orders. And yes, here, I would expect the military to remain perfectly neutral, unless/until the Senate agreed to remove him, and I suspect they would remove him, rather than go down with him.

    The gravest danger I see is in the second scenario – he refuses to concede, allow transition teams access, etc., where the RW press continues to pretend this is all perfectly normal. If it looks like there’s a chance in hell of success, Republican cowardice will be to continue to support him, or at least “not be one of the ones causing Trump problems”; otherwise, Republican cowardice will force them to pay attention to the Constitution, for once. (No, not *talk* about it – *PAY ATTENTION* to it. Big difference.)

  70. 70.

    FlyingToaster

    @wmd:

    @wmd:

    Sorry, I misremembered and didn’t go look it up.  22nd, not 26th.

    Truman REALLY hated this amendment.

    And my lawyer friends (well, relatives and friends) told me this is how they’d interpret it.  Our discussions were about presidential succession, specifically, and when Kissinger and Allbright were barred from the succession because they were immigrants.

  71. 71.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Sounds like arrogance, knowing Trump and how his admin rolls. Or incompetence

    In your experience, what would you recommend could be done, Adam, to minimize what Trump or his supporters might do?

  74. 74.

    Ken

    @Adam L Silverman: Surely you’re not surprised?  This is the guy who hadn’t written an election-night victory speech. And have they figured out how to work the lights in the White House yet?

  75. 75.

    Martin

    @CaseyL: That will make for quite the conflict with the state national guards. I give ourselves good odds.

    I took Biden’s statement to mean that should he win the election, he trusts the military would recognize him as the commander in chief. It doesn’t really matter who escorts him from the building once that happens.

    Regarding the swearing in, the president must swear the oath, but it doesn’t specify who administers it. Have Merrick Garland do it.

  76. 76.

    Butter Emails

    @CaseyL:

    That’s just silly. Betsy’s baby bro wouldn’t send those mercs to blue states to throw the election – he’d still lose those states anyway, even with the depressed turnout.

    He’d send them to the purple states where it would make a difference.

  77. 77.

    The Moar You Know

    Should Democrats and leftists form their own militias/paramilitary groups to counter them? 

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):  I have thought long and hard on this.  Short answer:  bad idea.

    1.  Not a lot of people of the leftist persuasion own guns, much less know how to use them;
    2. People of the leftist/liberal persuasion, unless they’ve learned how to do so in the military, are AWFUL at taking orders, which you need to be able to do to field an effective fighting force;
    3. Violent shitheads are better at violence.  We’d get pasted.
    4. Nations only work and succeed when there is rule of law.  I won’t get bogged down in examples, it’s obvious.  When your society has disintegrated to the point where you have partisan militias fighting for political power, it’s time to give up and get out.

    You’re a young guy; if this goes to shit, emigrate.  I would be in that process today were I a decade younger.

    Right now, I’m at the point where I just want Trump’s violent supporters to get what’s coming to them and to be made an example of

    Lots would like to see that.  They won’t.  Get over it.  Every nation has violent, stupid shitheads.  That’s why we have cops and jails.  I guarantee you that the very small percentage of imbeciles that are out committing real violence right now will, in the vast majority of cases, have criminal records, and they’ll be right back in the joint in a few years.

  79. 79.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @The Moar You Know:

    Thanks for the answer. I wasn’t entirely serious when I suggested that. More at a loss for what could be done to prevent violence by Trump and his supporters. That sounds about right and I hope it doesn’t come to that.

  80. 80.

    cmorenc

    @Butter Emails:

    On January 21st Trump is no longer President.

    The fundamental problem here is: who authoritatively certifies the winner who is entitled to take the oath of office on Jan 21, 2021 ?  In principle, it’s the electoral college.  But if Trump claims the election in enough states Biden won was invalidly conducted and contests whether the electors from those states are valid, the issue will likely be decided in the courts…and Trump has nominated a fourth of the current sitting federal bench…and do you recall what the right-wing 5-4 majority did in Bush v Gore?

    If Trump goes into full resistance mode against leaving office, now we are depending on Chief Justice Roberts to have more regard for the court’s integrity (and his own legacy as a Chief Justice) than partisan loyalty.  But what if Roberts and the four conservative justices elect to duck and decline to intervene as a “political question” not up to the courts to decide, ironically using the example of Bush v Gore as a mistake by the court for intervening in that election?  That would be quite a feat of judicial ju-jitsu for SCOTUS to intervene in 2000 to help effectively decide the election in favor of the GOP candidate, and then decline to intervene in 2020, which would de facto step out of the way in favor of the GOP candidate.  But it’s a realistic possibility for how this may go.

  82. 82.

    Martin

    @Viva BrisVegas: Pretty sure it’s Speaker of the House under rules of succession.

    One reason why the Speaker was put ahead of the top Senator was that it’s the Senate that convicts in impeachment, creating a conflict of interest.

    Granted, USSC can do whatever the fuck they want, but there will be blood in the streets long before we get to that point. My guess is that we’re going to push this process a lot farther than we have in recent history, but cooler heads will find a way to engineer a peaceful resolution.

  84. 84.

    Librarian

    @Leto: AFAIK, the swearing in ceremony is not mandatory. The president- elect still becomes president at 12 noon on Jan 20th with or without being sworn in.

  86. 86.

    burnspbesq

    @cain:

    My guess is that on 1/20/21, Trump will be flown to Dubai. It’s a place that is very comfortable with garish displays of tasteless wealth, and there is no extradition treaty between the United States and the UAE.

  88. 88.

    Richard Guhl

    @Mallard Filmore: Especially if President Biden orders all utilities cut off. No water. No electricity. No heat. No internet.
    And when the loser emerges, he can be placed on a plane delivering him to the tender mercies of the Southern District of NY and/or the NY Attorney General.

  90. 90.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @burnspbesq:

    Couldn’t Biden just order the Air Force to force his plane to land while it was still in US airspace? Or better yet, order it be grounded considering he’ll still be wanted for state-level and federal crimes?

  92. 92.

    Bobby Thomson

    The cake is baked on any constitutional crisis once Trump refuses to leave.  What, pray tell, would be wrong with the newly elected and sworn in president ordering the military to remove Trump from office?

    Anyway, that’s too rosy a scenario.  If Trump loses, he would try to prevent the inauguration of Biden from taking place.  That’s when you get your real crisis.  The people he orders to stop it will have to decide whether they will obey orders from a lame duck president seeking to perpetuate his rule, or arrest him.  I won’t lose a lick of sleep if the latter occurs.

  93. 93.

    J R in WV

    OK, this is too depressing all together.

    I have a dog with staples in his groin, a larger older Lab who has possession of a fawn’s hind quarter out there somewhere. I’m too whipped to walk CooCoo, the dog with staples in his groin, they’re 6 days old and he looks well along towards healed up.

    I’m going to take my meds, a shot of bourbon, and go to bed to read science fiction. See ya’ll tomorrow sometime. Or maybe later tonight, depending upon how soundly I sleep and how loud the dogs are outside the deck door off the bedroom.

    I took pics of the critters and wild flowers along the road this afternoon. Will try to have some edited up for next week, if first time isn’t starting Monday.

  94. 94.

    NotMax

    Can we focus on getting to and winning the election before pulling hair out over anything post-election? Getting all bent out of shape over a what if that has a more than zero but an exceedingly less than people seem to assign it percentage of happening is fruitless at this point.

    I’ll go along with Fred Kaplan on this one, thanks.

    Trump Can’t Just Refuse to Leave Office
    We have a lot of things to worry about in the next eight months. This isn’t one of them. Source

  95. 95.

    Another Scott

    Perhaps the US Secret Service will politely, but firmly escort the President to Marine One for his last flight on what would normally be designated Air Force One, but because he would no longer be president would be identified as the 89th Airlift Wing’s Special Air Mission, …

    You buried the lede. ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  96. 96.

    The Moar You Know

    My guess is that on 1/20/21, Trump will be flown to Dubai. It’s a place that is very comfortable with garish displays of tasteless wealth, and there is no extradition treaty between the United States and the UAE.

    @burnspbesq: I’d normally agree, but Trump is fucking broke.  I doubt he could buy his kids dinner at McDonald’s if he had to pay for it himself.

    I’ve been to Dubai.  It’s fucking expensive.  And deadbeats don’t get to stay, in fact they’got some pretty horrendous penalties for defaulting on one’s debts.

  97. 97.

    Carlo

    @Amir Khalid: Yes. The military thing is an irrelevance. If he refuses to leave the White House on Inauguration  Day he will be trespassing on Federal property, which is a felony.He would be escorted off the premises by Federal Marshals, either politely or, if he and his coterie resist, dragged away in manacles.

  98. 98.

    Martin

    @cmorenc: Congress does. Their term starts on Jan 3. On Jan 6 they certify the election, between House and Senate. Objections to electors can be raised.

    In short, if Dems win the Senate and keep the House, we can expect this to be orderly. If Dems don’t win the Senate but there’s a national acceptance of who the winner is, Congress will certify that person.

    As in 2000, the problems will happen long before then. I’m expecting a very late declaration of the winner. My fear is red states get results out quickly due to forced in-person voting, and blue states come in later due to mail-in, and so on election night, Trump is winning. If nothing else, I’d expect all kinds of legal challenges to those other voters getting counted. I expect all kinds of legal challenges from Dems if Georgia is what red state voting looks like.

    Maybe it goes to USSC. Unlike Florida, where there was one place to throw all of those legal resources into, Nov is unlikely to be like that, so I think it’ll be a lot harder to pull off. My guess is the courts tell everyone to just sit tight until states complete their counts, if nothing else to try and stay out of it. Nobody will look good at the end of this. I expect increasingly desperate efforts from Trump until the electoral college meets.

    Our best outcome is Biden wins by a mile making the outcome without question even if some state gets invalidated, and we win the Senate making the certification easy.

  99. 99.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Bobby Thomson:

    If Trump loses, he would try to prevent the inauguration of Biden from taking place.

    It wouldn’t make a difference, once Congress certifies the election that person becomes President at noon, January 20th.  The formalities don’t matter.

  100. 100.

    Ken

    @The Moar You Know: And deadbeats don’t get to stay, in fact they’got some pretty horrendous penalties for defaulting on one’s debts.

    Shhh!  We want that to be a surprise for ex-president Trump.

  102. 102.

    mdblanche

    @cmorenc: I’m pretty sure disputes over whether electoral votes once cast by the electoral college are valid are adjudicated by Congress.

     

    ETA: What Martin siad.

  104. 104.

    Another Scott

    @Leto: My recollection is that the new president takes office at the appointed time, whether s/he’s accepted the oath by then or not.  (It came up because Clinton/Donnie was “always late”, or something.)

    Wikipedia agrees with me, so I must be correct. ;-)

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration#Oaths_of_office

    At noon, the new presidential and vice presidential terms begin. At about that time, the president recites the constitutionally mandated oath of office: […]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  108. 108.

    Brachiator

    I agree that the military cannot and should not get involved with presidential succession. Who knows whether Trump will try to pull something.

    But even if Trump does refuse to recognize the validity of the November voting, whether we have a constitutional crisis will largely depend on what the Republican leadership does. If they unreasonably back Trump, all hell will break loose. And I don’t know how this would be resolved.

    Another hanging chad fiasco with the Supreme Court getting involved would be a disaster.

    But in any event, all this would have to be resolved well before the inauguration.

  109. 109.

    burnspbesq

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Doubtful. Until they’re revoked (which isn’t going to happen as long as Barr is AG), the bullshit 1973 and 2000 OLC memos that say a sitting president can’t be indicted will protect Trump right up until noon on 1/20/21. It’s silly to think there will be indictments drafted, approved by a grand jury, and ready to be unsealed at 12:01. We don’t do Minority Report-type shit in this country. He gets to walk out the door a free man, and if he is thinking clearly he will skidaddle immediately.

  111. 111.

    Ken

    @burnspbesq: if he is thinking clearly

    Hum, well…

    he will skidaddle immediately.

    Now there’s a completely different crisis.  A former president heads off to, oh, Moscow. Does the US demand his return, and on what grounds?

    (Though in this case it wouldn’t be as serious as with, well, any other president – you know, ones that pay attention to the presidential daily briefing, and bother to attend security meetings.  Russia can learn everything Trump knows by getting a cable package with Fox News.)

  112. 112.

    Another Scott

    @burnspbesq: This seems slightly plausible to me.

    We know that he needs the DoJ fighting to keep him out of the stocks (tax evasion and all the rest).  If he knows he has lost the election, he’s going to hang on as long as he can (so he won’t resign) but he will be looking for the next best path to keep himself out of jail.  It’s not hard to imagine him being all buddy-buddy with the new President Elect, showing up for the ceremony, saying his good-byes, then hopping on Marine One to Dulles and then taking an Emirates flight to Dubai (or St. Petersburg or Pyong Yang or …).

    That assumes, of course, that his dementia isn’t so fully advanced by then that he can plan that far ahead…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  113. 113.

    Kelly

    @James E Powell:And I’m not happy that Joe Biden or any Democrats are talking about this. Let the press/media ask Trump what he will do when he loses.

    Same. This is a time for staying out of an opponents way whilst he’s busy stepping on rakes.

  114. 114.

    NotMax

    @Another Scott

    This. The taking of the oath is a mandated ceremonial affirmation of assumption and responsibilities of office, it does not generate the office.

    LBJ (hi, raven) became president the moment JFK was declared dead, not upon taking the oath aboard AF1.

  115. 115.

    Punchy

    What’s the incentive for Trump and Barr to follow election law?  They only need to break it for 8 hours or so, get re-elected, and then dismiss all shenanigans as partisan bitching.  Why WOULDNT they spend all day Election Day closing down sites and shutting down machines in blue-only states?

    IOW, if the only check on following the law is impeachment, and the GOP won’t bother, why would they run honest elections when they could be voted out?  They have zero incentive to be fair and honest.

  120. 120.

    patrick Il

    Whether  or not he  leaves the  White House if he loses,  he won’t  attend the inauguration.

  122. 122.

    Another Scott

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    German word for smug sense of satisfaction when everyone is talking about someone saying something extremely stupid, and you realize you had them blocked already.

    — QuestionableHat (@Popehat) June 13, 2020

    Hehe.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  125. 125.

    Brachiator

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    He’s heavily in debt.

    Doesn’t really matter. Big Republican donors will see to it that he is well taken care of. For example, according to some recent UK news,

    Theresa May earned more than £160,000 by doing nothing after the coronavirus lockdown forced the cancellation of two public speeches she was due to make. The former prime minister was paid upfront after she was hired to address an audience at private bank JP Morgan Chase in the City of London.

    The speeches supposedly will be rescheduled, but she got paid, no matter what happens.

    The plutocrats won’t let Trump suffer or fall into poverty. He’s done so much to help them magnify their wealth.

  128. 128.

    NotMax

    @mrmoshpotato

    Don’t you know that I heard it through the grapebovine
    Not much longer would you be mine
    Oh I heard it through the grapebovine
    Oh I’m just about, just about, just about to lose my mind
    Oh yes, I am, oh yes, I am, oh yes, I am

  129. 129.

    Jay Noble

    You know who is going to get Trump’s butt out of the White House? The White House staff – chefs, cooks, maids, butlers, elevator operators, any of them who’ve had to put up with him for the last 4 years. I think he leaves either shortly after losing the election or shortly after the new Congress is sworn in. At any rate, I doubt he will be in Washington on Jan. 20, 2021.

  130. 130.

    mrmoshpotato

    @Jay Noble: Chefs and cooks?  Is that what he calls the high schoolers who work at the McDonald’s he put in next to the bunker?

  132. 132.

    Kent

    There is nothing geographically-specific about the office of the presidency.

    If Biden wins, he can get sworn in anywhere. Doesn’t have to be the Lincoln Memorial. In fact, I don’t even think he constitutionally needs to be sworn in. And he can conduct the business of the presidency from anywhere also. He will pick all of his cabinet secretaries and send them all to their various departmental headquarters. All the Trump cabinet officials will be tossed out. The entire operations of the Federal government don’t rely on the oval office to manage. Biden can do it from anywhere.

    I can’t conceive it would ever get there. What are you guys suggesting. That Trump barricades himself in the bunker? The Federal government is absolutely massive and the vernier of Trump appointees that run things across the Federal government is EXTREMELY thin. Every single one of them will lose their authority on January 20. Does he expect people like Betsy DeVoss or Wilber Ross to barricade themselves into their cabinet offices? And all the civil service employees in their massive departments to continue to follow their orders? That ain’t gonna happen

    Every single regulation or order or government contract from every single executive branch agency that is signed by a Trump appointee who’s term has expired would be null and void and not worth the paper it was printed on.  Thought you got that $5 billion defense contract?  Nope, sorry.  Relying on a tax regulation or settlement signed by a Trump person?  Nope, sorry.

  133. 133.

    dimmsdale

    @Adam L Silverman: Adam, I wonder if you could expand on that one of these days. Is there anyone in the government who’s tracking, assessing, and preparing countermeasures for some sort of stochastic RW armed response to an election loss? Do you trust local police to keep Karl Rove’s 50,000-strong army of “poll watchers” in line (or rather, given recent manifestations of pro-Trump support among law enforcement, share their donuts with them)? What’s your biggest concern about how the election will unfold?

  134. 134.

    Kelly

    @Jay Noble:You know who is going to get Trump’s butt out of the White House? The White House staff – chefs, cooks, maids, butlers, elevator operators, any of them who’ve had to put up with him for the last 4 years.

    If I recall correctly the White House Staff take great pride in smoothly moving the outgoing president’s stuff out in the incoming president’s stuff in during the inaugural ceremonies.

  137. 137.

    Kent

    @Omnes Omnibus: Yes.  You can’t run the federal government by barricading yourself in the white house with a few key aids like Steven Miller.  The notion is laughable.  Government relies on hundreds of thousands of bureaucrats doing your bidding.  It relies on courts recognizing the validity of your regulations, orders, and contracts.   None of that will happen if a few Trump revanchists refuse to leave the White House.  It will be more comical than anything else

    I spend a decade in the Federal Government.  The IT guys I knew would happily turn off the email accounts and computer access of any Cabinet Secretary or lower level Trump appointee who refused to leave office on January 20.  And they would brick their cellphones and laptops for good measure.  And cancel all of their keycards and IDs and government credit cards.  And cancel their paychecks and health insurance.  And they would do it with glee.

  138. 138.

    sleepy

    @The Moar You Know:

    “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once.”

    Note “elected.” This does not seem to prevent a former president from being vice-president and then becoming president again in one of the normal ways that a VP assumes the presidency (death of the president, for example).

    Obama ain’t gonna be Biden’s VP but I don’t see why the 22nd amendment would preclude it.

  139. 139.

    JoyceH

    I don’t know why so many people fret about Trump hanging on to the bitter end. When has he EVER stuck with anything? He’s going to cut and run, just like always. My prediction is that he’ll head down to Mar a Lago for the holidays, and then just not come back. He’ll just skip the inauguration, and the outgoing administration will do as little as possible to assist in the transition. But frankly, an inauguration without Trump there will be a nicer and more joyous occasion anyway.

  140. 140.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Amir Khalid: Wrong. US Constitution, Amendment 20, Section 1:

    The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January … and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

    Noon in “military time” is 1200. Unfortunately (and unconscionably) Amendment 20 fails to specify the time zone, but anyone with an IQ over 80 (and no programmatic axe to grind) would presume the time in question is that of the seat of the governing institutions in question, i.e., DC.

  141. 141.

    debbie

    So long as the military doesn’t actively assist Trump in keeping the presidency. Not sure I believe that won’t happen, though.

  142. 142.

    randy khan

    @Adam L Silverman:

    . . . the Constitution is actually silent on what happens if a president refuses to accept the outcome of an election that he’s lost.

    It’s not, actually.  It says that the person who’s elected becomes President on Inauguration Day and the person who loses no longer is President.  This is Section 1 of the 20th Amendment:

     

    The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

    And, so, the military and the Secret Service and the entire White House staff will stop taking orders from Trump and start taking them from Biden if Biden wins.  I think this was Biden’s real point.

  143. 143.

    Kristine

    @JoyceH:

    But frankly, an inauguration without Trump there will be a nicer and more joyous occasion anyway.

    I’m thinking a “Ding dong, the witch is dead!” vibe, complete with dancing in the streets.

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