I was getting a little nervous about some of the state polls yesterday (one NV, one PA, and one WI poll weren’t great for Biden), and I was worried the media would claim Trumpmentum after the debate, but I think we may still be in rout mode. I saw an article in National Journal (need a sub. to read the whole article) saying that House polls were brutal for Rs right now. I’ve also seen projections in the 5-10 range of pick-ups for Dems in the House. So I think we should go a little bigger in Tier 1, the seats held by Rs that are listed as toss-ups. I added one more in (Balter in NY-24, whom I mentioned earlier). I doubled the overall goal.
I think this is a great place to give money right now. The candidates are arranged in a random order so if you want to just give to the one on top and avoid too many mailing lists, go right ahead. As always, you can see all of the candidates we are supporting here.
Balloon Juice House Tier 1 (15 Republican held seats that are listed as toss-up)
Tom Levenson
Done.
Hit ’em again. Harder.
Benw
Is there a post that says who the Tier one folks are?
pacem appellant
Dropped $50, evenly split.
DougJ
@Benw:
Kate Schroder, Jill Schupp, Cameron Webb, Hiral Tipirneni, Candace Valenzuela, Sri Kulkarni, Christina Hale, Eugene DePasquale, Dana Balter, Jackie Gordon, Wendy Davis, Kara Eastman, Christy Smith, and Amy Kennedy
pacem appellant
BTW @DougJ, you had me at “rout”. I’ve read a bit too much on historical warfare (and maybe played a Total War game or two on the PC). Once an army is routed, the best tactic is to give chase and cut them down so they can’t regroup to fight another day. There is something of a political rout going on right now, I believe. We need to wipe out the GOP.
Additionally, every single elected Democrat in Congress needs to start acting like the Republicans are afraid and on the run.
Yutsano
I’m starting to wonder how much the Senate will be a loss to the Republicans until at least 2024.. Toomey(PA) is out, Johnson(WI) might be out, Grassley(IA) is trying for male Feinstein status in age (and might be vulnerable anyway) and Burr (NC) could be in trouble. The map is looking really good if we get an outsized Senate victory come November.
JPL
Why did Pence cancel his trip to Indiana tomorrow? He was suppose to vote.
hueyplong
@JPL: Give it 15 minutes and someone will leak it, but as far as speculation goes, can’t offhand think of any reasons we wouldn’t like.
lgerard
Glad to see Jackie Gordon on this list.
Perhaps you might look at NY-01 as well. I would love to see super trumpnut Lee Zeldin disappeared and I think his support is very soft
DougJ
@lgerard:
She’ll be in my Tier 2.
lgerard
@Yutsano:
Both Burr and Johnson have stated that they were not going to run in 2022.
Of course their promises are pretty meaningless
Cheryl Rofer
Speaking of fundraising,
Yutsano
@lgerard: Johnson made noises about possibly running for governor of Wisconsin. If he has to resign before that, it gives Evers a chance to appoint a Democratic* placeholder who would have a leg up in the general election. Even if Johnson doesn’t bow out, he’s probably one of the more vulnerable Republicans.
*I don’t know if Wisconsin has a law that says that the appointee has to be the same party as the current holder. I’m sure OO can fill that hole in later.
Roger Moore
@pacem appellant:
I want the Democrats to replay the Grand Armee after Jena/Auerstedt.
raven
We just got back from the beach. There was a northeast wind all week and the conventional wisdom is that the biting flies blow in off the pig farms in Alabama. I have bites all over and they hurt!
dmsilev
@JPL: It’s not because he’s sick. His campaign said so, and they’ve been nothing but honest and transparent this whole time.
Yutsano
@raven: Well stop looking so tasty old man! :P
dmsilev
So apparently Biden and his team called Trump’s bluff re next week’s debate. Biden will be doing a town hall, hosted by ABC, during that slot while Trump wheezes his way through another rally.
sdhays
@Yutsano: The Democrats need to not flinch and get DC and PR (assuming a “yes” vote in November) admitted as states right away. Between a really good performance this time (fingers crossed), 2 more solid Democratic seats (DC), and 2 more non-Republican seats (PR), and at least a decent performance in 2022, the Senate could be out of reach for the Republicans for at least a decade. Or longer.
Benw
@DougJ: ty!
Edited: what lgerard said!!
JPL
@dmsilev: yup That pink eye would not cause a positive test. No wonder the entire party wants liability immunity.
Humanities Prof
@JPL: No one’s really sure, but one (admittedly crazy) bit of speculation could go a little like this:
1. By now, even Pence and most of the GOP powers-that-be have figured out that Trump has gone ga-ga, and they’re trying to limit the collateral damage they’ll suffer on November 3 if he continues to behave like this for the next 4 weeks. He, obviously, cares nothing about dragging the Republican Party down with him, but Republican officeholders probably feel differently.
2. Pelosi drops her “Talk to us about the 25th Amendment tomorrow” line earlier today.
3. Profit?
Goes without saying that everything I have just typed is 100% guaranteed to be wrong, but….
rp
$100, plus $25 for Al Gross.
Sab
Our county 1392 first day of early voting, 1383 second day of early voting. 2016 it was about 700 each day.
hueyplong
@Humanities Prof: I’d guess that Pence will be there to swear loyalty to Trump, to say that he’s met with Trump this very day and never seen a healthier person in all his life, and to pledge that he would never, ever consider invoking the 25th Amendment or offering mild criticism of The Defender of the Faith and Protector of the Realm.
The rest would be deploring the bad faith and divisiveness of Democrats in general and Nancy Pelosi in particular.
Humanities Prof
@hueyplong: Your version is vastly more likely than mine.
JoyceH
OT but I covet Steve Schmidt’s cleaning crew – his kitchen is immaculate!
Leto
@dmsilev: Good. Fuck that walking Petri dish. Biden can get back up and show what leadership in America looks like in front of a national audience. Every speaking event is another vote for us. If president* Petri wants to go off and flop sweat his way through more jerk off adulation, let’em. Relegate their asses to the old style tent hatred revivals they are.
JPL
@hueyplong: Will he be wearing sunglasses?
Leto
@JoyceH: I think we just heard his cleaning crew bark for a raise :P
hueyplong
@JPL: Probably. I forgot to add that he’ll declare Trump to be “the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.”
Mother will wince slightly, but understand.
Morzer
@Roger Moore:
Cannae or bust!
JoyceH
@Leto: Nope, that was MWR (Morale, Welfare and Rec).
Mousebumples
I’ve been contacted more this cycle (mailings, calls, attempts at doorknocking) this cycle than ever for my R+8 (ish) us house and state house elections.
WisDems is doing phone banking this weekend, if anyone is up for remote volunteerism. Trying to get more voters registered online before the online deadline. (can register at the polls on election day but not having to go to the polls is likely preferred, right?)
Marcopolo
The Nicole Galloway campaign (MO-Gov) dropped a poll yesterday for Missouri: Trump 50 Biden 48; Parsons (R-Inc Gov) 50 Galloway 48. MoE ~4%. So my state is currently tossup/lean R which is a bit unreal. Also, a local TV station reported today that voter registrations in St Louis & St. Louis County have been at record levels since the start of September. So there may be a good bit of new voters not in the polling samples. I’ll keep my fingers crossed. In the meantime, remember everyone, nag the shit out of your circles (family, friends, neighbors, and co-workers) to vote–ASAP where they live.
Leto
@JoyceH: That was a military place? Or his dog is named MWR?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@hueyplong: Then cut to long shot of the Capital Dome collapsing from roid rage Trump.
SiubhanDuinne
@raven:
The Little Black Fly
https://youtu.be/f389hIxZAOc
sdhays
@hueyplong: It doesn’t count unless Dense meets in person and literally kisses the ring.
What’s problem? Dump declared that he’s already COVID free, right? Perfectly safe.
JoyceH
@Leto: heh. I don’t know the dog’s name, but dogs do tend to fill an MWR role.
Cheryl from Maryland
Donation is Done! Thanks, Doug!
Roger Moore
@Morzer:
Cannae was a decisive battle, but it wasn’t a great example of harrying a routed foe. Hannibal encircled the Romans and killed most of them, but his army took enough damage in the process that they weren’t capable of pursuing the Roman remnants or marching against Rome. The Romans were able to tough it out, form new armies, and come back to defeat Carthage.
In contrast, the main body of the Grand Armee was largely intact after Jena, since the really hard fighting had fallen on Davot’s corps at Auerstedt*. The French cavalry under Murat, was in fine shape and ran wild after the battle. They not only chased down the defeated Prussian field army, they rode through the whole country and captured all kinds of other places. The Prussian army was so demoralized by the defeat that troops that hadn’t been involved surrendered to the French cavalry without firing a shot. Prussia was utterly defeated and became a French satellite until after the defeat of 1812.
*Jena and Auerstedt were fought on the same day, each between the main body of one army and a detached corps of the other. The French managed to win both.
Geminid
@lgerard: I think Burr means it,but that NC Governor Roy Cooper can take that seat even if Burr stays. And the republicans will have to defend 21 other seats in 2022. I’ve seen a lot of people assume that, since Clinton and Obama lost a lot of congressional seats in 1994 and 2010, Biden is destined to lose seats in 2022. Mitch McConnell and Mark Meadows seem to be banking on it. I think differently. Most republican office holders have chosen to ride the trump train, and they will be in a very big trainwreck. I think it will take more than one election cycle to repair the damage.
Morzer
@Roger Moore: Hannibal was perfectly capable of pursuing the Roman army after Cannae, but he famously chose not to do so, leading to Maharbal’s famous jibe “Hannibal, you know how to win a victory, but not how to use it!”
Roger Moore
@Morzer:
I’m not convinced. The Romans lost Cannae, but they went down fighting. Not only were they not up to marching on Rome, they weren’t even up to chasing after Varro and the remnant of the army he was able to rally after the battle. I think the criticism of Hannibal for not following up after Cannae is like the criticism of the Army of the Potomac for not following up after Gettysburg. Yeah, they won the battle, but their victory cost them enough they weren’t in a position to exploit it.
Freemark
I live in PA-10. Gave to DePasquale. Perry is a POS Club for Growth and Trump tool. If Pennsyltucky can elect a Dem rep I will be so ecstatic. The amount of Trumpers in my immediate area is so depressing.
FredW
As my old boss used to say “Done and dusted.”