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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Their shamelessness is their super power.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

When I was faster i was always behind.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Fight them, without becoming them!

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

T R E 4 5 O N

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

So very ready.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

In my day, never was longer.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

Decision time: keep arguing about the last election, or try to win the next one?

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Most of you should go to bed and try to be better Jackals in the morning.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

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You are here: Home / Archives for 2020

Archives for 2020

What do you mean — observations on benefit terminology

by David Anderson|  February 11, 20209:00 am| 22 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

One of my colleagues, and co-authors, Farrah Madanay is presenting some of our preliminary research this morning at the National Health Policy Conference on benefit terminology in the ACA. We looked at all the different ways insurers described their first tier, in-network benefits on the ACA individual market from 2014-2020. It is a mess:

Consumers are expected to not only compare plans across insurers, but also interpret benefit concepts with terminology varying from plan to plan. For example, “no cost-sharing” is expressed 24 different ways, including $0 copay, 0% coinsurance, “no charge” copay, and “not applicable” coinsurance. A relatively unexplored topic is the complexity consumers face in benefit concept lexicon across marketplace plans. To characterize this complexity, we analyzed cost-sharing descriptions for all standard component plans using public use files from HealthCare.gov.

For instance, the cost-sharing concept of “$1,000 copay after the deductible” is expressed in 13 different ways and the distribution of expression is fairly diverse.

Cost sharing expressions for a single concept

We found that most benefit categories (ie “PCP well visit” or “X-rays” or “Emergency Room” etc) have cost sharing concepts that have lots of variants. We are currently looking at the county-year level exposure to see what is happening there (interesting things but I can’t write about it yet).

Choosing insurance is hard. In an ideal world where we expect people to choose their insurance, we expect them to compare networks, benefit structures, hassle/transition/switching costs, and then also integrate those projections against a probabilistic projection of future healthcare needs that is not uniformly weighed. That is a tough challenge in an ideal choice environment.

We are showing that the ideal choice environment does not exist as people are also expected to translate how Blue Cross describes their benefits against how Aetna or UPMC or Centene describes their benefits. These are tough things to do when most people aren’t spending all day thinking about health insurance; they leave that to geeks like me.

Choice is tough in the best of cases, and we’re not in that universe.

What do you mean — observations on benefit terminologyPost + Comments (22)

New Rules

by @heymistermix.com|  February 11, 20208:47 am| 26 Comments

This post is in: Election 2020

Nope, not about Bill Maher (bleagh). Since we’re having the first real primary today, I thought it might be interesting to review delegate thresholds in primaries and the (new) convention rules for Democrats. The site 270 to Win has a good overview of both.

[Edit: Thanks to Zzyzx in the comments for pointing out this 538 article about statewide vs district apportionment of delegates. I’ve re-written the following 3 paragraphs and added a bullet point below to reflect it.]

For primaries, the key rule is that there’s a 15% viability threshold at both the statewide and district levels. District level is generally a Congressional district, but it varies in some state. Every candidate who earns 15% or more of the vote statewide will take part in a proportional allocation of 35% of the delegates. Anyone under 15% is out of luck. So if one candidate gets 15% and the rest are under that threshold, that candidate gets all the delegates. The same threshold rules hold true for the remaining 65% of the vote. So if a candidate is at 14.5% statewide, but 15% in a couple of districts, they still could get some delegates.

There’s another rule if no candidate gets 15% of the vote. Then, the threshold is 50% of the percentage received by the front runner. So if the front-runner gets 12%, the threshold is 6%.

The apportionment rule isn’t new, but since the party has only a few caucuses left, almost all in tiny states (Nevada is the exception), it is the rule that governs almost all the contests, including 1,338 of the huge Super Tuesday haul of 1,344 delegates.

To win the nomination, a candidate must earn a majority of the 3,979 pledged delegates (which, arithmetically, is 1,990 but some sources are saying 1,991) on the first vote. If there is a first vote where no candidate is picked, the 771 superdelegates are allowed to vote in the succeeding votes. This means that the victor will need 2,376 of the pledged and super delegate count of 4,750. This is the new rule that came out of the complaints about superdelegates being in the mix.

Every four years, there’s a lot of talk about a brokered convention (I think Chris Cillizza masturbates to that notion when he isn’t thinking about his favorite baseball player). Remember that a brokered convention doesn’t mean that the party elders step in and pick a winner that both Chuck Todd and Morning Joe would love. Instead, a brokered convention is one where marginal candidates make deals with one of the delegate leaders and pledge their delegates to them. The second round of voting superdelegate release complicates this – in hindsight it might have been smart to make that the third round, since the second round would give candidates a chance to do some horse trading without the complication of 771 new votes.

Since a lot of the political media (and some consultants) can’t count, and are too lazy to review the rules, it’s worth keeping these rules, and their consequences in mind. Specifically:

  • When looking at polls, anyone who is far under 15% probably isn’t getting anything for their efforts. There’s a real incentive for marginal candidates to drop out.
  • But if a candidate is in the low teens or at least double digits, it’s easy to imagine that they could win some districts and therefore get a good number of delegates.
  • A candidate who is polling in the 30’s consistently can win the nomination with 1/3 of the vote in primaries, if the other candidates split most of the vote and a lot of them don’t hit 15%.
  • But, if 2-4 candidates are in low 20’s and high teens, from a delegate perspective, the high teens candidates get a fair amount of benefit from their “loss”.
  • Getting in late means you have to win big. Specifically, Super Tuesday, where more than 1/3 of the delegates are awarded, is key.
  • If the convention looks like it’s going to be brokered, the superdelegate rule will put immense pressure on the candidates to come to some sort of deal prior to the first vote. (If that’s possible, some delegates will feel obligated to stick to the candidate they support.)

If you know more about any of this, please feel free to drop a comment I can update the post. I hope we can keep this around — maybe I can re-write it with corrections/amplifications as a page to refer back to as the primaries continue.

New RulesPost + Comments (26)

Election Year Open Thread: Elizabeth Warren – Why I’m with Her

by Anne Laurie|  February 11, 20208:13 am| 22 Comments

This post is in: Election 2020, Open Threads, Warren for President 2020

People are worried that the fight against Donald Trump could be unwinnable. Here's the thing: I've been winning unwinnable fights my whole life. Everyone thinks they know what fights are unwinnable—until everyone gets out, fights, persists, and wins. That's how we'll beat Trump. pic.twitter.com/34f4kkXbfb

— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) February 11, 2020

ICYMI:

Warren has a wicked sense of humor that comes out from time to time, but I get the sense that she tries to keep it under wraps lest men get too threatened. https://t.co/wN4npTP38T

— Paul Waldman (@paulwaldman1) February 10, 2020

I could not love Elizabeth Warren more if she was herself a golden retriever.

— ana marie cox (@anamariecox) February 8, 2020

Warren on MSNBC: I’m not here to knock other candidates, we need to unify against Trump, we don’t need a repeat of 2016.

here’s me, agreeing

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 11, 2020

Warren came aboard for some q’s.
She rarely shied away from criticizing other Dems on issues over her career, but has mostly declined to do so in this campaign, even now. Part of it is the unity candidate strategy but I asked why not call out her opponents. pic.twitter.com/0lmthAYIA2

— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) February 10, 2020

After a bunch of q’s about polls Warren replied:
“It’s a very fluid moment in the primary… Who was supposed to still be in this race today and who wasn’t? I think I wasn’t?” Warren asked. “I think the prediction business right now is not something I’d be heavily investing in” pic.twitter.com/tiq7s9EtLy

— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) February 10, 2020

Put another way: Pete Buttigieg is 32 years younger than Warren. By the time she was sworn in to the Senate, he had run for office twice. By the time Biden was Buttigieg's age, he was serving his second Senate term.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 10, 2020

.⁦@ewarren⁩ to ⁦⁦@CharlotteAlter⁩: “We have to show that we’re willing to take the risk,” she says slowly. “Because if we’re not, then women will never win.” https://t.co/flOn9qsluI

— Elena Schneider (@ec_schneider) February 10, 2020

Consistently distinctive about Warren events: the people asking questions go deep on policy (“I actually brought a PowerPoint for you to read,” a woman just told her), whereas others get questions like “How will you beat McConnell?” or “What’s your plan on health care?”

— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) February 10, 2020

As she was doing her closing riff on creating the CFPB, the mic cut out. “It’s the banks,” @ewarren says. “It says dead battery—all I can say is that may be,” she points at the mic, but then at her chest, “but not here.”

— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) February 11, 2020

Warren: "I cannot say to all those little girls: 'This got hard and I quit.' My job is to persist."

via @AnnieLinskey https://t.co/BqIwMZXFUO

— Amy B Wang (@amybwang) February 10, 2020

Election Year Open Thread: Elizabeth Warren – Why I’m with HerPost + Comments (22)

On The Road – something fabulous – September in Lucca

by Alain Chamot (1971-2020)|  February 11, 20205:00 am| 13 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

Just after Labor Day I was lucky enough to go on a trip to Lucca with side diversions to Pisa, Montecarlo (the Italian one), Volterra, and in and out via Milan. Traveled with my two oldest friends in the world and a spot-assist from my brother, who is an interpreter: A very helpful thing to have in a family, I highly recommend it! So the trip was all one could want: Fun, restful, delicious, entertaining and beautiful, with only a slight edge of grumpiness to keep things lively.

Oh, and being separated from my suitcase for the first five days! But that’s a story for another day…

On The Road – something fabulous – September in LuccaPost + Comments (13)

On The Road - something fabulous - September in Lucca 1

Inspirational flooring in Milan airport.

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: New Hampshire’s Proud Primary Tradition

by Anne Laurie|  February 11, 20204:40 am| 195 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Election 2020, Open Threads

… Of giving every outside voter the bird. Winner of both (D) and (R) Dixville Notch primaries? The guy who’s not on the ballot!

NEW: And it’s 3 write-in votes for #Bloomberg in #DixvilleNotch making him the winner in the community’s midnight primary vote. #NHPrimary #NHPolitics

(pc @DixvilleVote pic.twitter.com/S76AokCaEg

— Ciara Speller (@CiaraSpeller) February 11, 2020

(But he does have money, which he is spreading around very generously. Tourism, including political tourism, is NH’s top industry. They approve of flatlanders showing up, spending money, and going away.)

Also, if past performance is any indicator, at least one of those (D) Bloomberg choosers votes the straight Republican ticket in the general election. Nothing personal, it’s just the Granite State way.

New Hampshire have been super frustrated — they’ve never had to wait this long to know which Iowa winner they’re supposed to reject.

— Tony Fratto (@TonyFratto) February 4, 2020

As @PeteButtigieg’s team was trying to leave the Youth Climate Town Hall, they were briefly blocked by satirical candidate Vermin Supreme.

“Boot head head!” he chanted at the mayor’s car. pic.twitter.com/jWG6q0tPL7

— Rob DiRienzo (@RobDiRienzo) February 5, 2020

Another NH tradition to keep an eye out for, tonight: Tying up the phonelines to delay result reporting.

Looks like a page was ripped right out of the NH GOP’s 2002 playbook.

This story is unfortunately all too familiar in #nhpolitics – where it’s happened before. By phone jamming, Republicans disrupted NH Dems’ election efforts, and 2 GOP operatives went to jail for it. https://t.co/k5zNdDc9rn

— Holly Shulman (@HollyShulman) February 6, 2020

The wild scene outside the big Democratic dinner in Manchester NH. Trump supporters are chanting “Hunter Biden!” and Native American chants at Warren supporters pic.twitter.com/b0gkGnxizw

— Matt Viser (@mviser) February 9, 2020

Scenes from the weekend. The McIntyre-Shaheen Democratic Dinner is essentially another tourist trap — all the top people from the NH Democratic party ‘welcome’ whomever buys a ticket to share a gymnasium for a few hours, just before the primary. Sufficiently generous donors actually get dinner; campaigns buy bleacher tickets for as many warm bodies as they can find / afford, to demonstrate their size & power. They don’t have to be eligible NH voters; they don’t even have to be Democrats:

Ben I have attended this Dinner in the past , one doesn't have to be rich to buy a ticket, When I attend my income was less than $25K . those seated tend to be party activist. btw suit jacket is optional…

— MikeofBoston (@griffbos) February 9, 2020

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Tuesday Morning Open Thread: New Hampshire’s Proud Primary TraditionPost + Comments (195)

Novel Coronavirus Update – Monday / Tuesday

by Anne Laurie|  February 11, 20204:26 am| 8 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19, Foreign Affairs, Healthcare

This is the latest update to the novel coronavirus outbreak. For more news and updates: https://t.co/51Igfng0WD pic.twitter.com/w86sQdBvtQ

— TIME (@TIME) February 11, 2020

#2019nCoV: China's Feb. 10 numbers are out. +2478 cases, +108 deaths.
The death toll in China is now 1016 cases (globally 1017).
The case total is 42,638 cases in China. Adding in the cases outside of China bring that figure to near 42,700.
These are confirmed cases only. pic.twitter.com/uLMh6tIBtb

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 11, 2020

I hate this language. It implies we have some kind of definitive medicine to treat this virus, and we do not. What they mean is that their infection has resolved and are feeling well–likely due to their own immune system and supportive care. https://t.co/LSyR4dMKpt

— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) February 10, 2020

NEW: The 13th case of coronavirus in the US has been confirmed in California as the global death toll tops 1,000. ABC News’ Andrew Dymburt has the details. pic.twitter.com/xrzrsj3NE2

— ABC World News Now (@abcWNN) February 11, 2020

DANGER DANGER DANGER!

Pres Trump in NH just said he is hoping that the coronavirus will be under control by April because it will be warmer.

“Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer it miraculously goes away. I hope that’s true…I think it’s going to work out good.”

— Yamiche Alcindor (@Yamiche) February 11, 2020

Yesterday: 97 died of Coronavirus in China alone.

Today: President Trump announced plans to cut funding for global health programs by 34%.

It's like a unilateral, willing surrender to pandemic disease. Hard to believe.

— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) February 10, 2020

All things considered I'll take Trump being disengaged and ignorant on coronavirus over him actively involved and demanding everyone violate public health best practices. I'm sorry, those are the only available options.

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) February 10, 2020

Key message: case fatality depends on which cases you look at. High in the relatively severe subset reported in Hubei. Lower in (mostly milder)traveller cases, 1% (.25-4) in all infections https://t.co/4ltCQH5xRW

— neil_ferguson (@neil_ferguson) February 10, 2020

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Novel Coronavirus Update – Monday / TuesdayPost + Comments (8)

Late Night Open Thread: “… the Hair Looks Good?”

by Anne Laurie|  February 10, 202011:46 pm| 45 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Trumpery, All Too Normal

The Q folk are calling this warpaint in the comments I'm having a stroke

— zeddy (@Zeddary) February 8, 2020

Nope, the hair does not look good. Nor does the foundation. ‘Jest’, or self-delusion?

He has seen the photo and he is upset. https://t.co/vFeLZT3x18

— Jon Lovett (@jonlovett) February 8, 2020

Snopes has an explainer, of course. The photographer is a ‘Trump enthusiast’ (which is a whole story in itself), not actually affiliated with the WH. Official photos of the same event show the same pale ‘hair halo’, but the color of the face itself is closer to boiled ham than pumpkin pie. Or vivid glow of a setting sun, if that’s what one sees…

This picture was never photoshopped, but used the Apple smartphone’s photo app to adjust the color of the picture.

— White House Photos (@photowhitehouse) February 8, 2020

If any female politician of any party put on their makeup like Trump it would be endless fodder, yet without social media we would never know Trump’s face looked like that because the press is covering for him pic.twitter.com/TvMfkee3Iv

— Oliver Willis (@owillis) February 8, 2020

There was a widely circulated tweet photoshopping Trump’s face into one of Bugs Bunny’s exploding-cigar cartoons, but Twitter pulled out. No doubt for copyright violations, she said piously.

Late Night Open Thread: <em>“… the Hair Looks Good?”</em>Post + Comments (45)

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