“War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth a war, is much worse. When a people are used as mere human instruments for firing cannon or thrusting bayonets, in the service and for the selfish purposes of a master, such war degrades a people. A war to protect other human beings against tyrannical injustice; a war to give victory to their own ideas of right and good, and which is their own war, carried on for an honest purpose by their free choice, — is often the means of their regeneration. A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares more about than he does about his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself. As long as justice and injustice have not terminated their ever-renewing fight for ascendancy in the affairs of mankind, human beings must be willing, when need is, to do battle for the one against the other.”
― John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy
planetjanet
That quote is very thoughtful. The Ukrainians are certainly showing their ideals are worth fighting for. Happy to see you here, Soonergrunt.
dr. bloor
Tell me you’re a philospher and not a president without telling me.
BTW, it’s a great quote, and apt for the day.
JoyceH
China is demanding that Russia cease and negotiate
And just saw on Twitter that Pope Frances went to the Russian embassy in Rome to personally scold the Russian ambassador and demand that Russia stop its illegal invasion. We needed this guy in WWII.
WaterGirl
Truth.
P.S. So glad to see you here, Soonergrunt!
Ohio Mom
In my American-centric world view — I am not proud of that, it is a reflection of how uneducated I am in this area — I have never really considered the relationship between China and Russia. Does China’s opinion matter to Russia?
Cacti
I’m of the same mind as Adam in the previous thread.
If now is not the time for NATO to flex in support of democracy abroad, what is the purpose of NATO’s existence?
craigie
@Cacti:
Yes, it is interesting to be part of a pro-war left.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cacti: Define flex in this context.
PrairieLogic
Hey! As a lurker… I thought… Soonergrunt is back. Glad you are still out there!
Wife and I were talking at dinner tonight, and she said she couldn’t believe people were actually heading back to Ukraine to fight… I asked, “wouldn’t you fight if someone wanted to take your home, your place?” Upon reflection… yes was the answer. Everything in perspective.
Putin has bitten off more than his small mind could have imagined. As a native Russian told me years ago… he’s nothing but a murderous KBG thug.
Brant
I have never been pro-war, but I have always been anti-pirate, and Putin is a fucking pirate.
Cacti
@Omnes Omnibus: Marshall its considerable resources to support a European democracy in an actual fight against expansionist authoritarian nationalism.
The Moar You Know
@Ohio Mom: very much so, these days.
Gin & Tonic
@JoyceH: “How many divisions has the Pope?”
SpaceUnit
I’ve been monitoring a live webcam from Kyiv for a while. It’s been as quiet and still as death, but now you can hear shelling in the background. They’re coming.
I’m saying a prayer for this city.
Don’t know if this link will work . . . my balloon-fu is not strong:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q7FuPINDjA
Omnes Omnibus
@Cacti: Do you believe that is currently not happening? Would you commit NATO troops?
sab
@JoyceH: Russia doesn’t give a shit about the Pope. They think he is an upstart, and that their extremely ethnocentric church is the real inheritor from St. Peter.
sab
@Ohio Mom: A lot. China is rich and has an extremely competent government and a very long border with Russia.
Eggbert
A man who has nothing which he is willing to send other people to fight for, nothing which he cares more about than he does about the safety of disposable troops, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.
JoyceH
@Cacti:
One of the unspoken purposes is to keep the member nations from fighting with ONE ANOTHER. Think about it – when was the last time you saw France go to war against the UK? Or Germany against France? But in the two centuries before the end of WWII, those nations went to war against one other over and over and over again. World Wars I and II were two disastrous global conflicts just twenty years apart. But since then…
JMG
@JoyceH: The purpose of NATO, according to the popular remarks of the time in the late ’40s, was to keep “The Germans down, the Americans in, and the Russians out.”
Lyrebird
Yay a post from Soonergrunt!
I don’t know if I agree with Mill, I think that war is what the song said, only good for the undertaker, but it’s not like the Ukrainians got to pick and choose which historical development they would get to face next. In the face of attack they are choosing valor.
Back here in the US of A, I sure wish we could hear more from you and the main front pagers and @Cacti: & @Omnes Omnibus:, disagreements & all, and not hear a peep from Tucker Carlson or Ted Cruz !
Cacti
@Omnes Omnibus: This is about how much interest I have in your lawyerly sanctimony on this issue, counselor
…
debbie
@Ohio Mom:
Putin met with Xi right before the Olympics. They released a joint statement filled with self-congratulations for their “democracies.” Very short-lived, apparently.
SpaceUnit
@SpaceUnit:
Okay, the link is good.
sab
@sab: Also too, China manufacturers all those chips and such that Russia needs. USA could eventually rehome the manufacturing that we gave up in the 1990s. But I doubt Russia could reinvent that wheel if China doesn’t want to cooperate.
WaterGirl
@debbie: wow, those quotes are doing a lot of work there.
“Democracies” Right. Surprising the earth didn’t open up and swallow them whole.
gene108
Interesting quote.
This partly* what Sri Krishna explains to Arjuna, at the start of the Kurukshetra War, in the Bhagavad Gita, where a warriors duty is to fight against evil.
I think the sentiment acknowledging the need to take up arms against oppression goes back a long way across multiple cultures.
*There’s a lot more about dharma, karma, the soul, reincarnation, etc., which I doubt Mill’s was interested in.
Ohio Mom
Okay, but wouldn’t Putin feel like a wuss taking orders from Xi? I mean, I wish he would but it looks like he’d want to save face a little.
Starboard Tack
@sab: I believe those chips are produced by China and others under license from the US.
sab
@Starboard Tack: Expand on your comment, since I obviously don’t know everything
ETA China can’t switch loyalties. Their country their rules? I know they haven’t behaved that way, but they could.
RaflW
@JoyceH: “China is demanding that Russia cease and negotiate.”
About an hour ago I heard an NPR story about the Ukraine offer of long-term neutrality to try to start peace talks. It briefly appeared that the Russians would at least give the offer a listen.
Then Putin went raving about Nazis and US proxies in Ukraine etc and it was obviously all off.
My thought, and I’m just a guy on a couch, so maybe nothing, but here goes: Some in the Russian elite are seeing that the shock and awe didn’t work (Adam’s thread below certainly touched on some of that). Putin has his own dictatorial goals and simply cannot recalibrate, cannot absorb that his was is at the very least less successful and more globally shocking than anticipated by the bad info a sycophatic regime feeds an isolated autocrat.
But I think he’s seeing glimmers of the truth. It’s a fuckup. A giant clusterfuck. The problem of course, is that he can’t unfuck it. I can’t imagine what Putin’s offramp here is.
I do wonder what Chinese pressure, if it’s really starting to show up, may do to that equation.
trollhattan
So my kid rear-ends a Tesla today in the Bay Area. Low-speed but damage. Tesla lady is…Russian.
Don’t know why but that cracked me up.
Starboard Tack
@sab: I think the US (government, companies?) can prevent the licensees from supplying the Russians.
ETA: I read an article on it a week or so ago. Maybe at LGM? Lawfare?
One of the Many Jens
SOONER!! Great to see you here.
And thank you for the quote.
Immanentize
@Gin & Tonic: the things that cannot be counted are infinite. The Pope has that, no?
gene108
@Starboard Tack:
Taiwan is the biggest in semi-conductor/microchip manufacturing in the world. U.S. is the global leader in chip design. Interesting article:
https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/russia-invade-ukraine-chip-semiconductor-ban-blockade-us-biden-sanctions-embargo/
Immanentize
Thank you Soonergrunt. I catch you on the blue birdie sometimes, but I smile when you stop by here.
Roger Moore
@PrairieLogic:
Like many authoritarians, I think he genuinely believes the stuff about countries being stronger under a single, strong leader than under squabbling politicians. There are many reasons this is wrong, but Ukraine is demonstrating a critical one: democratic governments can have a kind of legitimacy a strongman can never achieve. The Russian soldiers are fighting because they are commanded, while the Ukrainians are fighting because they have chosen to. It makes a huge difference.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cacti:
So you want a hot shooting war. Why do you dance around it?
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Because once you say that, the absolute idiocy of the proposal is revealed.
Starboard Tack
@gene108: Thanks for that. It’s not a simple situation.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: I’m starting to wonder. If Ukraine does fall here, do we think Putin stops? Or does he move on to attack another neighboring country, one that is part of NATO and consequently gets us into that war anyway? That is his stated objective.
Maybe it is better to step in sooner if we’re just going to end up in the same place anyway. Be a whole lot fewer dead Ukrainians and all of the risks are the same if we think he’s being honest about what he’s going to try to do.
Baud
Hi, SG.
@Starboard Tack:
Everything is simple on the Internet.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
this seems notable, though I shudder to think what Putin is capable of if he feels truly cornered
gene108
@Starboard Tack:
The entire post-WW2 order, in the West, was to create interdependent economies to avoid World War 3. This expanded after the end of the Cold War to include China, India, and pretty much everyone else on the planet.
This partly why Russia’s war of conquest right now is so shocking. Putin’s not just upending European borders, but trying to dismantle the last 70+ years of global policy that most countries have agreed upon.
I’m not sure he’s thought through Russia’s economic strengths and vulnerabilities, as other countries figure out their own vulnerabilities to with regards to trading with Russia and means to mitigate it.
It won’t happen as quickly as we’d like, but Putin may end up getting Russia isolated to a much greater extent than he thinks. Oil and natural gas are fungible commodities. It’s just a matter of Western Europe getting new suppliers, so they can stop relying on Russian exports.
His long term situation can be a lot more precarious than he thinks, because he’s thumbing his nose at the international order the rest of the world has agreed upon and has benefited from.
dr. bloor
@trollhattan: Oh, great. Your kid is going to be Putin’s pretext for going into Berkeley.
David Anderson
@gene108: Actually, if Western Europe is serious about taking down Putin with economic power, it means a very rapid decarbonization regime with a short run spike in imports of US and Persian Gulf natural gas to bridge their economies for five years. Yes, this means maintaining operations, restarting operations and plausibly building nuclear plans but it also means that a lot of off-shore wind and transmission projects that can get stuck in red tape now have national security imperatives to get done.
Putin (and Saudi Arabia) are fucked in a low carbon world. This might accelerate that transition.
The Moar You Know
@Eolirin: he had said he will not stop. I take him at his word on that.
MagdaInBlack
I want to thank the person that mentioned The Kyiv Independent yesterday. I’ve been following their twitter feed all day
I can’t recall who mentioned it.
Peale
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: if true, that’s really bad. Putin knows full well that Khazakstan needs those troops internally to put down demonstrations. The second those troops go, they’ll revolt again.
Jay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
NATO does not have to start shooting.
They can ramp movements, patrols, exercises, deny air flights, engage in “tight shadow” on air and sea, up sanctions to physical products and raw materials and enforce them on cargo shipping, close the Straights.
Immanentize
@Eolirin:
But we don’t have the authority to do so. I’m sorry to be legalistic, but if Putin attacks a NATO country, all of NATO had the authority — and obligation to respond. Look at a map. There is literally a small bit of Russia on the Baltic north west of Lithuania. Putin has been complaining of the mistreatment (genocide?!) Of Russian speakers in the Baltic NATO countries for years. Look at Moldova, next to Ukraine. Not a NATO country but same dynamic. My guess is that Putin will move first against Moldova and then set up the conflict with NATO.
Meanwhile, forces in Sebska and Serbia are preparing to act against Bosnia. There are so very many side effects that will follow on the Ukraine invasion. Like Taiwan?
But an open armed conflict with Russia is not smart. It would not help Ukraine now at all as all those pieces are in motion and we could not effect the outcome absent total war with Russia (and its allies overt or silent). Russia is weak and poor, but have nukes.
Subsole
@Eggbert: Hmh. Clumsy and inartful, overall. The flow is very poor, and not improved by the rather hamfisted execution. Would have been better to either deploy the jargon in a straightforward manner, or simply argue in the negative. The attempt at subtle rephrasing doesn’t really gel.
Your snark is overall crippled by a certain aimless indecision. It cannot seem to decide if it is trying to insult the opponent, or stir their conscience. It attempts both, and manages neither. Tries to be slick, comes off as snippy. Unsalvageable. Rewrite.
Overall, reads more as an attempt to impress oneself with oneself, rather than make any real point or sting the conscience. 2/10. Apply yourself more effectively, please.
RaflW
@Eolirin: re ‘better to step in sooner’ what does that mean? US deploys air power? Sends troops? Something less than that but signals the step-in?
If reports are true about Russian casualties, broken supply lines, and already-flagging morale, I’d worry that the worst thing to do would be to broaden the war and make Putin’s ugly mouth noises about the West come true.
I don’t mean that to suggest that we shouldn’t do anything. We should be doing all possible that is short of having NATO hands directly in/over Ukraine.
Morzer
It seems to me that Putin is no longer living in anything like the real world. I think he really believed his own propaganda and is unable to understand that the Ukrainians want their own country, their freedom and the right to decide their own destiny without consulting Vladimir the Great and Powerful every time they feel like breathing. They’ve certainly stood up for themselves splendidly and there are signs that the Russians are not especially enthused at the prospect of fighting a war for whatever is currently living in Putin’s pointy head. If China really is telling Putin to knock it off, that’s a very hopeful sign. I suspect that Putin needs to “win” his war very quickly indeed. Let’s hope he can’t do it. My bet, tentatively, is that the Ukrainians will hold on long enough. Long live a free Ukraine!
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ask how many Kazakhs were ‘relocated’ under Stalin to their death and you might see why they have no desire to help a weak hand?
Immanentize
@gene108: This is mostly what I am thinking. God knows justice but waits.
trollhattan
@dr. bloor:
They know where we live ?
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: That is why I asked Cacti for more details. What you are talking about are things that Nato is either currently doing or soon will be.
Roger Moore
@Eolirin:
I don’t think so. I think Putin is justifiably afraid of NATO. Part of the reason he’s throwing a fit over Finland and Sweden considering membership is because he doesn’t want them to get NATO’s protection. He will continue trying to undermine NATO and get it to destroy itself from within, but he’s not going to attack it head on.
piratedan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: to be fair, I can understand the sentiment… who’s been propping up the US Right Wing? Who’s actively sowing dissent in the US? If you reduce their capacity for sowing the seeds of social disruption and outright cyber warfare and corruption… you could see that as a win, but are the US and the rest of the West willing to pay that price and so that we succeed, what follows in its wake?
yet, without a RW/Fascism being outsourced, can we make the societal progress that we envision, can we turn the tide and deprogram everyone who has been duped, or at least turn off the spigots of disinformation to perhaps stop the onsluaght of Chads and Karens from going into school board mtgs armed and screaming about the latest FB disinfofest.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jay: some of those things sound dangerous and potentially provocative, others sound outside the purview of NATO
what are “the Straights”?
RaflW
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Interesting.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: If total war with Russia is inevitable anyway because they intend to start attacking NATO member states, they’ll still have nukes. Like, I get what you’re saying, I don’t even really disagree with it, but it’s really hard to see this as anything other than just kicking the can down the road a little, unless Ukraine succeeds here.
How do you say to the Ukrainian people that a whole lot of you need to die so that we’re not responsible for taking the first strike against an enemy that has sworn to attack us. We’ve intervened, unilaterally, in other people’s wars and conflicts before. Not talking ground troops here, just the air support the Ukrainians have asked us for.
The real issue is the nukes, right? But they’re not coming off the table and Russia is going to stay hostile. At some point that threat has to be faced head on. We can’t just be like “Well, if we don’t let them take over all of Europe they might start a nuclear war”
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: some of those things, like closing off passage to the Black Sea (the Straits of Bosporus), are acts of war.
raven
@Lyrebird: You like hearing from that fucking asshole cacti do you?
Subsole
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Didn’t Kazakhstan get into a shooting war not so very long ago? I remember reading one side got absolutely stomped…It was happening during the <waves hand at the tottering piles of what-the-almighty-fuck scattered everywhere>, so I was not paying close attention…
schrodingers_cat
Quick question for Russia experts, how many of the ex Soviet Republics have pro-Putin governments?
Immanentize
@Eolirin:
When?
Eolirin
@RaflW: Adam said Ukraine is asking for help with keeping Russian planes out of their air space. It’s a direct ask. We should figure out how to give that to them.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: Libya under Obama? Or Vietnam. Or Iran. Or any number of South American countries.
Immanentize
@Eolirin: why?
Roger Moore
@gene108:
Natural gas is pretty fungible, but oil is less fungible than people think. Each source of oil has its own characteristics, and refineries have to be built to handle the kind of oil they’ll be refining. A refinery that was built to process light crude would choke on the crud they extract from tar sands. Refineries can be retooled to handle different kinds of crude oil, but this is not something you can do overnight.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: In the Libya case to prevent mass civilian casualties? Which is kind of exactly like what we’re looking at here, potentially?
Omnes Omnibus
@Eolirin: Let’s not rush into WWIII just yet. There are a lot of things that can be done to help Ukraine and deter Russia that are short of armed conflict. Forgive me for wanting to try them.
Miss Bianca
@MagdaInBlack: Thanks for the reminder. Just started following their Twitter feed myself and ran across this nugget:
Reuters: White House asks Congress for $6.4 billion for Ukraine. The request includes $2.9 billion in security and humanitarian assistance and $3.5 billion for the Department of Defense.
Immanentize
@Eolirin: sorry, no. That was a NATO coalition affair.
Eolirin
@Omnes Omnibus: I want to be clear, I don’t hold this position strongly. I’m just wondering if it will make a difference in the end. And I’d like as few people to die as possible.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: Sorry for using imprecise language, but wouldn’t this be too?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Eolirin:
My recollection is that was a NATO action pushed by Hollande and Cameron. .
@Immanentize: I get the “why”, I don’t get the “how”.
Immanentize
@Omnes Omnibus: yes.
Subsole
@schrodingers_cat:
And a question for the India experts: is the Indian rapport with Russia deep and genuine, like, people on the street will buy you a beer, “they’re good people” kind of thing? Or more of a “Modi loves them, most folks don’t care” sort of deal?
I understand why Modi backs Putin. He sees himself as Tojo to Russia’s Hitler. I’m just wondering how the average Indian might feel about it.
Immanentize
@Eolirin: no, NATO has no interest in a head to head with Russia over a non-NATO country.
Why do people want dead soldiers and civilians so very much?
karensky
@trollhattan: I laughed when I read your comment before I read your reaction. Russian lady in a Tesla – perfect.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: Do the about to be dead Ukrainian civilians not count or something?
schrodingers_cat
@Subsole: India’s ties to Russia predate both Modi and Putin. When India was helping East Pakistan liberate itself, it was the Russians who helped India. Indira Gandhi was the PM then.
Immanentize
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: it’s kind of making me smile because I tell my students that “how” is just another way of saying “why” in many briefs.
Subsole
@Immanentize: I don’t think people want that. It is hard, when you feel you have to do something and there’s nothing you can do.
Calouste
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’s not giving the impression that things are going according to plan if you ask another country for troops after the invasion has already started. Brings to mind the Sun-Tzu quote that winning generals win first, then go to war, and losing generals go to war first, then try to win.
For Putin to win, he needs to topple the Ukrainian government soon, maybe even in the next few days. If he doesn’t his neck is on the line, and he’ll might do something desperate if he isn’t stopped.
Miss Bianca
@Immanentize:
WHAT?! You’re SORRY to be legalistic? The hell you say, Counselor!//
Omnes Omnibus
@Eolirin: Of course they do. An that is why many people are advocating aid and support for Ukraine but stopping short of advocating direct military involvement.
marcopolo
@Eolirin: You know, we fought this thing called the Cold War for decades w/out having overt fighting between US/NATO & Russian/Warsaw Pact troops. Because of the chance that a direct confrontation just might lead to nuclear war. And if there is nuclear war it doesn’t matter, mostly, where you live on the planet, you are going to be affected by it.
However, that doesn’t mean that both sides did not supply weapons & training & other support to lower level combatants who did “proxy” fighting for us. That is what we can, will, and are doing in Ukraine atm. We are supplying them with munitions to take out tanks and aircraft. We are supplying them with other things that armies need. Intelligence, other material support. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were even a small number of western special forces helping in various ways on the ground, but they won’t (shouldn’t) be in the front lines.
I hear some commenting here that economic/financial sanctions don’t mean a heck of a lot, but honestly, Putin is accountable at some level to his fellow kleptocrats and the Russian populace. If sanctions make life harder for these people his position will weaken. I would suspect he is getting quite an earful already.
Whatever happens over the next few days and weeks–and I hope against the odds that the Ukrainians manage to persevere against these really overwhelming odds–Putin has made his position as the leader of Russia a lot less stable going forward. In the meantime, he has done more to strengthen the resolve and cohesiveness of the Western democracies over the past several days (weeks) than most of us would have thought possible. If we are really lucky his actions might even result in some fracturing of the right wing political establishment in the US, though maybe that is overly optimistic.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: Also, maybe NATO should care about this?
I don’t expect them to do anything militarily either, to be clear.
I don’t think you can just say it’s better that they don’t though. Exhausting all other options before going to military conflict isn’t necessarily what results in the least loss of life. It might be. I’m generally of the mind that that’s correct most of the time. I’m really starting to feel very unsure about that here though.
Putin is… not well in the head.
CROAKER
@Eggbert: DUPA
schrodingers_cat
@Subsole:
Indian movie star, Raj Kapoor was big in Russia, most of my friends from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have watched translations of Hindi movies.
In the Czarist times Lenin was inspired by Indian National Congress and Labor leader Bal Gangadhar Tilak and they exchanged letters. Gandhi was inspired by Tolstoy and so on.
There are cultural ties and a deep fondness for Russians and many Indian freedom fighters were inspired by the Bolshevik overthrow of the Czar from Bhagat Singh to Nehru
The rapport between India and Russia is genuine and dates back to the British era.
RaflW
@Eolirin: Adam also noted the great risk if it was NATO or NATO-leaning nations (ie: Sweden) doing the air support for a no-fly would be functionally accelerating towards ‘total war’. What non-NATO, not-too-West air support that the US quietly can support do you propose?
Subsole
@schrodingers_cat: Hm. So would Modi lose public support if he DIDN’T back Russia?
Kirk Spencer
@Immanentize:
My guess is that they believe it’ll be a short victorious war, thus in the long run saving more lives than lost. And there’s a matter of principle – echoes of ‘purity’ here at worst, but more reasonably if you keep yielding, what good is what’s left when you eventually ‘win’?
I might agree with the latter points, but no way would it be a short victorious war. And the cost of that is ugly.
Eolirin
@Omnes Omnibus: And if Putin starts targeting civilian population centers in a way that looks like the leveling of the Warsaw Ghetto, what good will any of that do?
There’s got to be a line somewhere. I’m not saying we’ve crossed it yet, I’m not saying we should definitely be doing anything, I’m just saying, right now, I don’t know that the way I’d normally approach a situation like this, which is exactly where you are on it, is actually right.
Immanentize
@Eolirin: so where were you on armed invasion of Belarus after the 2020 election? Where were you on the conflicts in DRC. Then look at Nicaragua or South America like Columbia, etc. Dead people end up everywhere and we cannot stop them. Any of them. Or is it a certain type of dead you are most concerned about?
It helps to have a legal principle guiding your military interventions. I’m not arguing for pure rational non-hypocrisy. Just some reason why we need to fight a war in Ukraine, now, specifically, rather than in a dozen other places in the world.
The US does not have the agency you ascribe to it. See, e.g. Viet Nam.
marcopolo
@Eolirin: Jesus wept, none of those countries were nuclear powers. Can’t you figure this out for yourself? Or let me phrase this differently, why do you think Iran & N Korea have such an interest in having nuclear weapons? I will wait for you to think it through.
Martin
@sab: China doesn’t manufacture many semiconductors. Non-Chinese companies do have fabs in China, but those would still be covered by sanctions that their home nations support.
Chinas home semiconductor industry isn’t adequate to meet Chinas own internal needs, and the wests efforts to cut off Chinese state-owned companies from western semiconductor technology has created some serious problems for China. I don’t see how China could simultaneously carry Russias needs as well.
The semiconductor industry is very small, and not dominated by China. Almost all of the players are either American or tied closely to America (TSMC in Taiwan, etc.) And even if you do have production access, you don’t have equipment access. Virtually all semiconductor manufacturing equipment either comes out of China or the Netherlands. If you need cutting edge semiconductors, you need equipment from Dutch ASML, and they won’t sell to Chinese companies, and almost certainly now not Russian. Japanese companies are likely to cut off all the same parties for less cutting edge stuff. Now, they can get pretty far with used equipment, but slowly that will dwindle.
China is critical to assembly and many subcomponents, but there are important elements that they are lacking. Worth noting that the stuff China does is the stuff that western companies can do, but doesn’t find it profitable to do. And may not be able to do at China’s scale, but can do at some scale. Lots of US hardware MUST be made in the US, so there is some capability here. There isn’t the capability to make 200 million iPhones, requiring a million+ workers, but whether iPhones are made or not made isn’t important here.
Immanentize
@Miss Bianca: ok, I not sorry :-)
Eolirin
@RaflW: Yep, I’m questioning whether that total war is avoidable really. I know it’s not going to be knowable except in retrospect. Normally my inclination is that under those conditions you do literally everything else first.
But Putin isn’t behaving like a rational actor anymore. And sometimes, maybe, like in the build up to WW2, doing everything else first isn’t actually the right play.
Omnes Omnibus
@marcopolo: Well said.
Subsole
@schrodingers_cat:
Thank you. I was aware that India had ties with Russia during the Cold War, but this is a layer I was not aware of.
SiubhanDuinne
@Subsole:
I’m just going to borrow that for a little while, okay?
Eolirin
@marcopolo: If Russia is going to start a war with NATO anyway, the fact that they have nukes is kind of irrelevant. We’re going to be dealing with that anyway.
@Immanentize: Because the odds that Russia will hit a NATO nation and we’ll be dragged into it even if we don’t help Ukraine, feels fairly high? It’s not even, Ukraine needs to be saved, it’s Russia needs to be stopped. Doing it sooner means, potentially, fewer dead people.
dr. bloor
@trollhattan: Keep a couple bottles of vodka handy, and you’ll have the conscripts doing your yard work for you in no time.
Roger Moore
@Calouste:
It’s not as if Putin didn’t try this. He’s been setting this invasion up for a while, trying to divide and demoralize Ukraine, trying to keep NATO out of it, and so forth. I think he’s just been wrong footed by the stronger than expected opposition, first from Western intelligence and now by the Ukrainians being tougher and more united than he expected. Now a smart general would have backed down rather than attack when it looked like he hadn’t won the war already, but the political situation means Putin can’t afford to be seen backing down.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@SpaceUnit: I don’t hear anything at the moment.
I’ve been anxiously watching for updates since reading that statement from the mayor of Kyiv that it’s going to be a difficult night.
It’s 4:30 am in Kyiv right now, and sunrise is in two hours.
Edit: I hear scattered … gunfire? Including some close to the camera.
schrodingers_cat
@Subsole: It is difficult to answer that sitting in the United States. But Russia has been an important ally since independence and also a major defense supplier for a long time
BTW both the right and the left in India are deeply suspicious of the United States, albeit for different reasons.
Subsole
@Martin: Huh. I really didn’t realize the scope of the bottleneck. Illuminating.
Immanentize
@marcopolo: The lesson of North Korea is that nukes help you. I’ll add Pakistan too. Maybe India? I find it amazing Iran has not just sprinted to nuclear power status because it does improve the negotiation position. It makes me think that Iran is much more long term pragmatic than people care to admit.
Subsole
@SiubhanDuinne: Go for it. Deploy as needed.
Roger Moore
@marcopolo:
And this is something he can ill afford with a large chunk of his military in the middle of operations in another country. This is one reason it’s critical to get sanctions in place ASAP. They’ll be a lot more effective if they hit when the army isn’t there to help him.
Martin
@gene108:
The issue isn’t that gas can be substituted, it’s how you acquire it. If you’re going to replace a pipeline with tankers of LNG, you need the tankers, the LNG processing facilities, and so on.
And this introduces a new set of problems. Where are you going to get this supply from? Probably the Middle East, which gives SA and other repressive regimes the kind of leverage that Russia used to have. No, they aren’t going to invade anyone, but your ability to influence SA to stop bombing Yemen is now gone.
Europe needs to learn from Norway. Norway has pretty huge oil and gas access from the North Atlantic, and uses damn near none of it. They’re almost 100% nuclear, and are running about 50% of new car sales being EVs. As we get more alternatives to oil and gas, not embracing them becomes an act of support for people like Putin and MBS. I don’t care if it’s hard – everyone can cut their use. In an inelastic market, the only way to win is to not play.
Immanentize
@Eolirin: years between now and direct conflict with NATO means long opportunities to change behaviors or possibly even leaders of Russia and their trajectory. Shooting now ends all such possible outcomes.
Subsole
@schrodingers_cat: I would assume India’s defense industry also sees Russia as a very useful counterweight to Communist China.
Eolirin
@Omnes Omnibus: It’s not, it’s actually pretty stupid. Putin has placed a claim on territory held by NATO countries. If he actually attacks any of them, do we just go, oh no, he has nukes, I guess we’ll have to break our treaty obligations because he might use them!
Russia is an aggressor that’s pushing into a country that neighbors our allies while saying those allies’ territory belong to Russia. We can’t pretend that the nukes change anything. We are going to have to deal with their existence regardless of what happens with Ukraine. Unless, like, he loses there and gets deposed or something.
And I know very well that the reason why we attacked those other countries was because they didn’t have nukes. I said that, in an earlier comment.
marcopolo
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, honestly, I have been pretty despondent since the invasion started cause it is fucking terrifying that someone who does not seem to me to be a rational actor has access to nuclear weapons and has now put his military in a position where he has fucking threatened to use them. I mean, shit, this entire thing makes no sense to me whatsoever. If I am one of the wealthiest men on the planet (and Putin is) and I am reaching the last decade or so of my life (and he is) why the fuck would I want to stir up this hornet’s nest, to gamble like this, when I could just relax and enjoy the best that this world can offer for the next decade. It literally makes no fucking sense. Oh, and did I mention that this guy had control of nuclear weapons? We should all say all the prayers we can for the Ukrainians, do whatever we can to support them without provoking a nutball response from Putin and keep our fingers crossed that he doesn’t do crazy shit anyway if somehow this whole thing backfires on him in a spectacular fashion, which it looks like it might (and I hope it does). And, yes, we should all be scared shitless, though not into inactivity. I am so happy Biden is our prez, so happy that there are at least a few sane people in positions of responsibility atm. That’s one of the few things that is letting me sleep at all right now.
zhena gogolia
@MagdaInBlack: Gin&Tonic.
raven
@Eolirin: What someone else said is stupid? You need to check yourself out.
Immanentize
@Roger Moore: we proved that we had superior intelligence and we got deep inside Putin’s OODA loops. It was a first as far as I know, where public reveals of Intel info caused mistakes and changes of plans. Our efforts have made it clear (regardless of Russian propo) that they have committed the war crime of aggression.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: Maybe. Maybe it gains us nothing. Maybe it leaves us weaker. There’s no way to actually know until after the fact, and that’s kind of my point.
Understand that, prior to this moment, I would be saying exactly what you’re saying under pretty much every circumstance. I’m less certain that this is actually correct right at this moment. That doesn’t mean I think it’s definitely wrong either. I just have doubts about it.
MagdaInBlack
@zhena gogolia: I kind of thought so.
Thank you, Gin&Tonic.
dr. bloor
nm
Eolirin
@raven: His response was something that I CLEARLY already understood because I had already said as much. So yeah, it was stupid, and condescending.
Kirk Spencer
@Roger Moore: What I was fearing was for him to not invade for 3 to 4 months while rotating troops through the forward positions. Two consequences: make western leaders predicting invasions look ridiculous and create a “boy who cried wolf” situation that would allow the actual invasion to be a strategic surprise.
The fact that Putin didn’t take that path has me doing a lot of wondering and even a bit of hoping. He HAD to invade for some reason. Ego? Standing with the oligarchs? Limited resources? But still, he invaded without adequate logistics and while under a spotlight that destroyed some of his greatest strengths.
Dan B
@David Anderson: Nunclear, even the newer smaller nukes, are 5 to 10 year timelines. A billion dollars of solar and wind plus storage can be up in 2-3 years. It’s scalable with some mining / mineral extraction and pollution issues but moderate sized projects can use storage methods that avoid Lithium, cobalt, and nickel issues. It’s also easier to experiment with multiple forms of storage and generation that could fit different local circumstances. Offshore wind for coasts with DC transmission, solar ponds (floating), and others. Nukes are still slow and expensive.
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat: When I lived in Moscow in 1988, it was on Indira Gandhi Square.
Omnes Omnibus
Of course there is a line. Use of chemical weapons or a Warsaw ghetto situation would probably put me there. Day two of a war that is not necessarily working out the way Putin wanted is not my trigger for direct Nato vs Russia military conflict. I was one of those soldiers on the border of the Iron Curtain whose job was to be a speed bump in case the balloon went up. Our estimated lifespan after that was about a half hour. I am not wishing that on anyone if we haven’t tried all other rational options first.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Subsole:
Yup, and this sentiment underlies about 40% of the comments on this thread, which feels like it is about to go way off the rails
Dan B
@MagdaInBlack: Gin and Tonic I believe.
Immanentize
Love you all! Sweet dreams.
FlyingToaster
@marcopolo:
Maybe not so much. In watching yesterday’s video with the industrialist group and some subset of oligarchs across the aisle from them, I was struck by the ongoing 15 meter separation between Putin and his supposed supporters. I’m increasingly suspicious that his hold on power inside Russia is purely through cult of personality. The more the troops get bogged down in Ukraine, and the less international support he can
browbeatmuster, the weaker he looks.Also, to misquote The Doctor, “Doesn’t he look
tiredill?”CROAKER
sometimes when you have nothing valuable to say you should stop being a DUPA
marcopolo
@Eolirin: Who the hell says Putin is going to start a war with NATO anyway? Where are you hearing that? If he fails in Ukraine, or even does succeed but with tremendous losses we can hope he slinks away, and has to spend the rest of his time and resources holding onto power in Russia and doesn’t do crazy shit like this ever again. Yes, this is about Ukraine right now, but that long term bigger picture is, maybe, even more important for the rest of the world & the continuation of western style democratic governance.
Go read one of those lovely dystopian nuclear war novels like On the Beach. We do not want a nuclear war unless there is no other way out. Even if that means thousands or tens of thousands of Ukrainians die.
Eolirin
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, again, to be really really clear, I don’t disagree with you. Not really. I do think there are implicit risks in this position though, and I do not feel they are being examined here. I am less confident in their correctness than I would have been a week ago.
Eolirin
@marcopolo: Putin is saying it! ><
CROAKER
and by the way don’t fuck with the Swiss … I know I run them all the time … there is a reason they sit at the Holy See …
marcopolo
@FlyingToaster: Um, it all goes hand in hand. They (sanctions & military problems) work together hopefully. And honestly, in terms of cult of personality we should be a lot more worried about Xi in China than Putin in Russian imho.
Martin
@Subsole: Oh, it’s bottlenecks all the way down. Because it’s such a global industry, sanctions really work pretty well because there’s always some layer you can turn off. And it’s REALLY hard to backfill some of this stuff when it’s turned off. You can sanctions compliance by the manufacturers, the equipment suppliers, the consumable suppliers (70% of the worlds neon comes out of Ukraine which is key for semiconductor production), and so on down the stack.
My son works for a company that makes the control equipment for quite a few of these companies – the hardware and software that allows the equipment to talk to one another, to be programmed so that if machine X has a problem it safely shuts down machines Y and Z, safes equipment for maintenance, etc. They don’t have many competitors.
The complexity of the global semiconductor industry is absurd and remarkably fragile. Keeping everyone on speaking terms is key to it working at the necessary scale.
schrodingers_cat
@zhena gogolia: That’s pretty cool. I was a member of the House of Soviet Culture’s library. They had a really nice library with physics and math books.
I was also a member of the British Council and USIS libraries.
Eolirin
@Martin: That’s actually pretty disturbing given the players involved.
Martin
The counterpoint here is that if wars are ultimately about securing and protecting national wealth, when you tie up 80% of a nations GDP in looted assets, you can probably expect the guy running the show to commit all of his resources to getting it back – in one way or another.
It’s kind of the military analogue to “If you owe the bank $100, that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem”.
Subsole
@marcopolo: In fairness, we Americans already spent 4 years living under an irrational actor with access to nukes… AND a constantly open digital window (courtesy of Jack Dorsey’s interwebnet) into the narrow, glass-smooth wasteland of bigotry and grievance he called a mind. I am still frankly amazed that President Stumbledick didn’t plunge us into WW III, IV and V simultaneously.
So, yeah. Putin is scary, but he ain’t the most novel form of harrowing shit we’ve seen the last 5 years.
If anything, it may end up spurring us to start dismantling some stuff that needs it. The nice thing about fighting a vast international cabal of fascist chodes is that it’s all connected. Taking roubles out of Putin’s economy takes bullets out of the GOP’s guns. Crushing reactionaries here ties Putin’s hands there, because a united America is a very, very different animal from one that’s fighting itself.
There’s a lot of danger, yes. But also opportunity. As it ever was.
Calouste
@Martin: Norway is almost 100% hydropower, not nuclear.
FlyingToaster
@marcopolo: If Xi goes, there’ll be another guy just like him, with roughly the same party line, in about an hour. Like it or no, it’s a stable system.
Putin, OTOH, is sitting 15 meters away from the oligarchs. From Lavrov. From Medvedev. From people who seem to depend upon him for their continued existence, let alone prosperity.
Looking at world leaders, who go out and shake hands and hold babies and meet billionaires, and then looking at Putin, well…
The ongoing supposition is that he’s scared of COVID; but it looks to me like he’s as or more afraid of a dioxin cocktail or a polonium umbrella point or novichock misted in his face.
Jay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Turkey controls the Bosporus Straights, and is legally allowed to deny transit to any vessel for no reason.
With out expanded sanctions, yes, some of that suggested would be illegal, but if there are sanctions on materials or raw resources, NATO nations can stop and search every ship in the Baltic, seize those with Russian cargo.
As the computer chip post noted, there are some actions we can’t take with out some self sacrifice.
As of today, in BC, Ontario and Quebec, you can’t buy Russian liquor products, they have been pulled from the shelves.
in my local Liquor store, there are a bunch of empty spots on the shelf with a Ukrainian flag occupying the space.
trollhattan
@dr. bloor:
Heh :-).
True fact, when we did our addition one of the construction guys (excellent at ditches and general excavation) was Sergei. I chatted with him occasionally and once asked, “Sergei, why did you come to America?” “Russian Mafia.”
Sergei came closest to matching Curly Howard of anybody I ever met.
Subsole
@Immanentize:
I also imagine this is contributing to Putin’s apparent hesitancy wrt committing all of his forces.
If my enemies are publicly broadcasting my operational plans and timetable, I am going to be very, VERY hesitant to make a move.
Like, don’t stick anything you don’t want to lose into a wood chipper, right?
CROAKER
eclare
@Immanentize: Very good article in the WaPo today about how Joe acquired and disseminated intelligence. On my phone so can’t link.
Subsole
@Immanentize: Thankee and likewise! We’ll try to keep the place standing!
Martin
@Eolirin: Not really. China simply isn’t a major player – it’s the Netherlands, US, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan. That’s a pretty solid team to rely on. Add in UK for some of the IP.
Captain C
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
At this point, I also start to wonder if his rocketeers and other retainers might find gratuitous nuke orders (which with a cornered, decompensating, possibly mortally ill Putin might think of doing) that would only get their families killed and (in the case of the retainers) their luxurious London/NYC/Monaco penthouses vaporized to be a step too far and do something about it. Once your Praetorians decide you’re a liability, things can go sideways for you very quickly.
Ruckus
@Brant:
I am against war as well.
BUT.
And it is a big, firm, well rounded but.
There often comes a time when war is what there is. For Ukraine this is that time. War is not what you want, and never should be. But this is humanity and not everyone is a good or even reasonable human. Sometimes you have to fight for what is right, because it is the last resort. It happens with school yard bullies, it happens with dictators who think they can do whatever the hell they want, such as taking over a country from it’s citizens.
I am a pacifist, which to me means I don’t want war, that war is wrong. But peace only for the sake of peace sometimes makes things worse, because freedom is often stolen by force by people like vlad, or hitler. And humans should not have to live in worlds run by people like them, because they are not even treated like humans, let alone being killed for asinine reasons.
Subsole
@Martin: That is fascinating! Any resources you’d recommend for more details?
Eolirin
@Martin: I was responding to this: “70% of the worlds neon comes out of Ukraine which is key for semiconductor production” plus earlier comments on the raw materials part of that from Russia.
Jay
@Subsole:
Kazakistan had an issue with political Islamism. They kinda over reacted, and wound up with a Taliban supported ISIL clone. Took them a few years to defeat them and drive them back into Afghanistan, Chechnya and Dagestan.
Mike in NC
In 2019 we ended a British Isles cruise in Bergen, Norway. There was an Indian Navy ship making a port call. It was based on a Russian class of frigate.
Comrade Bukharin
Sending NATO into Ukraine could be the greatest gift we would ever give Putin. It would rally Russia, prove him right, and lead to a nuclear crisis. This is horrifying and tragic, but this is no time to go ape and plunge into world war.
-Tom Nichols
Sorry don’t know how to embed tweets.
Thoughts?
Sally
I have skin in the game – I have typed a sentence three times and decided I can’t even disclose what I can’t say, but until even a day ago I would say “no way” to “(military) x” who wants to fight with/for these brave people. I’d rather tear my own heart out. But now, seeing all this, it’s hard not to think this is an existential battle, and all of us are involved, one way or another, on one side or the other. The brave grandma really moved me. I’m off to vandalise a consulate. And I’ll repeat from the other day, all Russians out of all international events, sports, everything. No Russians welcome. Give them no platform, no wins, no cause for national pride, no tennis number 1.
Captain C
@Subsole: Azerbaijan took back the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave from Armenia (who had held it since just before the USSR fell) with the help of Turkish drones. Perhaps that’s what you’re thinking of?
Subsole
@Ruckus:
I am reminded of the Reverend Doctor King’s comments on social justice, and the importance of distinguishing true peace from negative peace. The peace of actual equality, and the false-peace of civility.
Jay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
UNSC resolution creating a No-Fly Zone and other measures.
any attempts to do so now would just meet with a Russian veto, unless, and I am not suggesting it, the Russian delegation were to have an “accident” on the way to the vote.
guachi
@Comrade Bukharin: NATO in Ukraine would be a very bad idea.
We can shovel as much AA and AT weaponry to Ukraine as we can but ground or air forces would be a terrible move.
Eolirin
@Jay: Or somehow, the Ukrainian attempt to make it so that the Russian Federation is not seen as the proper successor to the USSR in that Security Council seat succeeds and they get kicked out, but that seems like an equally long shot.
Bill Arnold
@Eolirin:
You are a nuclear warmonger. Take a critical look at yourself.
I’ll pose it as a question. How many humans would you, personally, be willing to kill to prevent a nuclear war?
0?
1?
100?
1 000?
10 000?
100 000?
1 000 000?
10 000 000?
100 000 000?
1 000 000 000?
If your answer is not a consideration of a billion human deaths for the elimination of a 75 percent chance of nuclear war, you’re not in the game. A full scale nuclear war would kill a few billion or upwards of the human population, mostly slowly through starvation/partial collapse of civilization. (I will not answer this question here.)
SiubhanDuinne
@Sally:
Wait, what?
trnc
The question is, does WWIII fought principally in Ukraine result in more devastation than the Russian invasion? If the sanctions and various obstacles to Russian military conquest do thwart Putin’s goal of installing a puppet regime, the answer is probably yes.
I’m willing to put some trust in Biden’s intelligence agencies and military planners. I think the NATO countries who are a hop away from Ukraine probably have a reason for putting military action on hold, too.
Subsole
@Jay: Ah. That sounds…messy. Does not sound like what I was thinking of, though. This was armored groups getting ansolutely levelled by airstrikes, which…does not sound like the ISIS I am familiar with…
I knew a couple folks from Kazakhstan, way back when. Nice people. Beautiful women. One of whom played a mean violin, to boot…
@Captain C: THAT would be the clusterfuck I was thinking of. Thanks.
Cannot believe I got that mixed up.
We take much for granted, living so free of violence. Or even the memory of violence…
Captain C
@marcopolo:
I suspect that aside from whatever personal reasons he has, he’s also dealing with a number of serious domestic issues (a lousy economy which is outright terrible outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, COVID devastation, oligarchs who are just a few confiscated Western apartments and bank accounts from turning on him, no one internally to blame it on since he’s been in power for over two decades), and he feels that he has to do something to rally the country around him. He also seems to really believe that he should be the one to restore Imperial Russia’s lost glory (and boundaries).
And at some point, once you’ve chased off, imprisoned, or killed anyone who might stand up to you, you’re left with incompetent yes-men and -women whose main skill is figuring out exactly what you want to hear and making you think you’re obeying their will, who will not point out that, say, announcing Ukrainians aren’t a real people while expecting to welcome your undisciplined conquering troops may be a little unreasonable.
Eolirin
@Bill Arnold: I’m really starting to wonder if reading comprehension is just not a thing?
My entire concern in all of this is that we’re potentially repeating the mistakes the allied nations made to Hitler annexing the Sudetenland; if war between NATO and Russia is impossible to avoid because Putin is crazy then we have to deal with the potential of a nuclear conflict one way or another.
Not stepping in to save Ukraine if they need us to won’t make nuclear war less likely if Putin decides to follow up by invading the Baltics. It’ll just delay it a bit. And potentially give him a chance to put another Trump in office in the US.
I have repeatedly said that I get the arguments for doing literally everything else first and that they’re my starting point. But I’m honestly not sure they’re right anymore.
Subsole
@Captain C: That floors me.
Imagine.
22 fucking YEARS of Reagan. Or Bush. Or Trump. Or Nixon.
Hell, I dunno if I’d be up for 22 years of LBJ, or Carter. Or even Clinton.
The mind boggles…
There are people in my college classes right now who have never lived in a world where Russia was not run by the same guy…
MC
So some experts on twitter are saying we’re on the cusp of nuclear war, and others are saying we are not. Who do I believe?
MagdaInBlack
@Captain C: Change a few words and you could be describing Trump.
I often wondered the same of Trump, Why didn’t he just retire and enjoy his money and his golfing and his luxury?
Because both of them are empty inside. They don’t enjoy anything.
Subsole
@Eolirin: For whatever it may be worth, I get what you’re saying. It’s a sobering and ugly point. I honestly don’t know how I’d answer it.
lowtechcyclist
This. Suppose a course of action has a 99.9% chance of saving Ukraine without further fighting, and an 0.1% chance of triggering a global thermonuclear war.
Then we don’t do it. Some people don’t want to hear that, but the consequences of that low-probability event are so great that even at thousand-to-one odds against, it’s insane to take the risk.
And this is why we can aid Ukraine with equipment, but not with any sort of armed intervention.
If I’ve got my time zones right, it’s 5:30am there. Another hour or so until daylight.
eclare
@MagdaInBlack: This 1000%. Absolutely no soul in either one. Or joy. Or affection. Or friends.
Eolirin
@trnc: Sure. I’m fine with this. This whole conversation started with the idea that it was clearly and obviously insane to consider intervention. I disagree that it’s clearly and obviously insane. That doesn’t mean I think we should be doing it necessarily.
There are risks in both directions. I trust people with actual intelligence and military assessment to make the actual decisions way more than I trust me.
And I’m saying all of this as someone who has been 100% on the side of what Omnes and Immz have been saying about this for forever. But I am less certain of the correctness of that stance right this second.
CROAKER
@MC: cause we are not…so stop… look up the current DEFCON LEVEL and stop
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Subsole: Kazakhstan also has a border to China to it’s east and the Russians and the Chines have been competing for influence in that region in the last decade.
Jay
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
what I understand so far, is that Russian Special Forces sent saboteur groups into Kiev proper, to basically start “fires” behind the Ukrainian lines, then the “main” assault groups would go in.
The saboteur groups made it as far as Freedom street, but were decimated. Some of the suburb areas are in Russian control, but dawn has broken and Kiev still stands strong.
Eolirin
@lowtechcyclist: Okay, suppose the course of action of not saving Ukraine also has a 0.1% chance of leading to events which also trigger a global nuclear war.
Which do you do?
ETA: Inaction also has risks! That’s kind of all I’ve been trying to say.
Eolirin
@Jay: This is good news.
James E Powell
I was watching all this unfold on CNN & MSNBC and I just had to turn it off. They’re still doing war as content for their entertainment network.
I spent two weeks in Kyiv, visiting my in-laws, in June 1991, just before the Soviet Union collapsed. Every time they show Khreshchatyk, I remember walking up and down that beautiful boulevard. I’ve never been treated better by total strangers. I see it now as a war zone and my heart just breaks.
Fucking Putin & fucking Russians will never be forgiven for this.
Did you all see the lady telling the Russian soldier to put the sunflower seeds in his pocket. Right then, if not before, that asshole knew he was doing evil and he will know for the rest of his life that he is evil.
Rich2506
Just ’cause I’ve got plenty of peacenik buddies who believe that Biden and Putin are equally responsible for the fighting in Ukraine, here’s my take on why NATO has expanded into Eastern Europe over the past three decades.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Calouste: The thing I find curious by all accounts the Russian soldiers are desperate for just food so Putin’s reaction to the last two days setbacks is moar’ soldiers. Even if the Russians win the conventional war this week, not enough food will still be a problem.
People were comparing Putin to Hitler, and not enough food for the war he voluntarily started is Hitler level dumb .
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin: I read a bunch of the responses to you, and thought I should add some more (b/c I think they’re right):
And it is this latter point, that I think is most important: the idea of risking nuclear armageddon, when we haven’t even bothered to actually try all the nonviolent means at our disposal[1] is ….. foolishness. Foolishness.
[1] And why haven’t we bothered? B/c there are too many people in the West who wet their beaks at Putin’s trough. We need to force those people to stop, and thereby stop all the trading with the fucking enemy. And there are too many politicians (like Lord Flobalob, TFG, and so many others) who have become his catamites, and they also need to be exposed, and run out of public life (some into prisons, but I’ll leave that aside).
You don’t go to war when you haven’t even bothered to try peaceful methods. Drive him and all who ride in him, in to penury.
gene108
@Subsole:
Post-Independence, India wanted to remain neutral regarding the Cold War superpowers. India was one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement. I think the pull towards neutrality regarding international conflicts is still ingrained.
Also, the reason India moved closer to the USSR is Pakistan officially aligned itself with the USA. The USA, during most of the Cold War, could not accept the idea of neutrality. Countries were either allied with the USA or the USSR. There was a lot of paternalistic racism towards non-white newly independent nations during the 1950’s and onwards that guided U.S. Cold War foreign policy.
Eolirin
@Subsole: Thank you for that. Sometimes I wonder if it’s a failure to be clear enough on my end.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Oh lordy, I do hope you’re right. And I mean that in the most positive sense. Really do hope. If I thought there was God, I’d pray to Her, too.
Chetan Murthy
@gene108: Funny that, I read that PK also declared support for Russia. So …. they’re both in Putin’s pocket now. Retch.
Jay
@marcopolo:
Pootie Poot in his declaration of war on Ukraine, and a bunch of other speeches over the last few years, has stated that he want’s all of the Former Soviet Union back, under Russia’s flag.
Another Scott
@SpaceUnit: Thanks for the pointer.
Cheers,
Scott.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Putin’s whole claim to power is he is the only one who can save Russia because he the 13D chess master. Impulsive, confused, out of touch and pig headed is going to get others to start seeing themselves as the next Russian strongman. Putin is a ruthless thug whose been grooming a generation of ruthless thugs for twenty years now.
prostratedragon
@Calouste: People should read Sun-tzu as describing how hard it is to get anything out of war. “Wow, you mean you know how to line up all that stuff and still can’t think of something better to do?”
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Bigger than that; the argument is, Russia wins the conventional, a guerilla war starts, Russia does the usual thug stuff like in Syria and Chechnya, it escalates, Russia gets frustrated at it’s self created, no win war and blames NATO for supporting the guerillas. Then the risk of nuclear exchange.
Kent
So what is the Russian fallback position if they get into a meat grinder?
A bifurcated Ukraine along the lines of E-W Germany or N-S Korea?
Jay
@Eolirin: it’s a legalistic argument that would require the UNGA to forward it to various groups and the UNSC after a popular vote,
then based on the advise of the various groups, and the majority of the UNSC,
Back to the UNGA for a majority vote.
I would prefer a UNSC with no veto power, and no permanent seats.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: Remember, Munich was pre-nuke. Does it change people’s judgments? I don’t know, but it is a factor that wasn’t in play in 1938.
CROAKER
@Kent: It has been and always will be along the Dnieper River
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t disagree with any of those points, you know. I just question whether they matter if he does what he says he’s going to do.
You mention sanctions, I’m pro sanctions. I’m pro sanctions and only sanctions if they work even. But he’s said he’ll treat sanctions as acts of war too. Sanctions also risk an eventual nuclear conflict. We’re still going to do them. People who have better knowledge of things have assessed that the risk of a nuclear response to that is low enough to be worth it. It can’t be zero though. Putin clearly isn’t a rational actor.
Kent
@Omnes Omnibus: Munich also came just less than 20 years after the worst war the planet had ever seen. A war that cost both the UK and France upwards of 1 million war deaths each and the decimation of an entire generation.
Context is everything. It is understandable that the western allies were loath to repeat that experience.
Eolirin
@Jay: That would be nice, but will never happen. The US wouldn’t even allow it, let alone China or any of the other permanent members. So I’ll settle for Russia being gone.
Hoodie
@Chetan Murthy: WWII is not a very good analogy and don’t underestimate the value of delay. As you point out, Putin does not have the relative economic and military power that Germany had at the start of WWII. In addition, while Putin does have imperial ambitions, they are not of the same scope as Nazi Germany. The west is far stronger economically and much better prepared for conflict with Russia than the Allies were at the beginning of WWII, when the world was coming out of Depression and the US had a very small standing army (my dad joined the Marines in 1939 and they were still using puttees and Brodie helmets from WWI). The best thing to do now is beef up the eastern flank of NATO, funnel as much help to the Ukrainians as we can, and work to economically gut Putin’s circle of supporters so his adventure in Ukraine collapses. It looks like all of that is on the way to happening. The biggest problem we face is getting everyone on the same page, not Putin is not some inevitable tide that will overtake eastern Europe. Getting everyone there takes time but one day Finnish F-35 pilots will be patrolling the Russian border for an expanded NATO. That will keep Putin up at night, if he’s still around.
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin:
There’s two ways of thinking of that:
Which do you think is true? And which do you think is most reliably going to end with us all breathing radioactive dust until we die? He might be serious about #1. Maybe. But are his boyars, the men who actually have to *implement* the nuclear order, going to do it? It’d be one thing if NATO were blowing their tanks, and they could credibly fear that NATO was gonna drive to Moscow. But are they gonna blow up the world b/c Italy won’t sell them fancy leather goods and Maseratis ? Really? Or will they instead decide Putin’s lost it and he trips down a flight of stairs? Or falls out of a window twice ?
Eolirin
@Kent: Yeah, extremely understandable. Also wrong. It didn’t save them from a far worse conflict. Again, this stuff is only really knowable in retrospect. It isn’t automatically the right thing to do the most sensible thing.
And maybe Ukraine is able to actually beat back this attack entirely with their own forces, in which case, woo, this is entirely moot, and that’s great. I will be extremely elated if that’s the outcome.
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: The sanctions that are being proposed aren’t just not being able to buy things like Maseratis, they’d cripple Russia’s economy. There’s a real chance that there’ll be knock on effects that will end up killing people from lack of resources.
And I’m not saying they’re equivalent. Military intervention is riskier. But giving them Ukraine is also a risk. Putin’s set out a roadmap that involves invading NATO member states if he’s serious about it. Having access to Ukraine makes it easier for him to do that.
Kent
Just a random thought.
But how much do you think the Russian ratfucking of the 2016 presidential election is in the back of the minds of Biden and his administration?
Putin fucked us and gave us Trump. Time for some payback and making sure that it NEVER happens again. Karma is a bitch. If Biden is weighing options for response that has to be in the back of his mind. Putin is an existential threat to this country, not through military invasion, but ratfucking through his GOP allies.
Chetan Murthy
@Hoodie: @Omnes Omnibus: Agree with both of you. And esp. what Hoodie said about the value of delay. Another thing I felt needed saying:
The people of the West are not united. Not yet. I know it’s horrifying to watch, but the sacrifice of the people of Ukraine will help to unite the West. You can’t get to there from here, without going thru that sacrifice. I have a Latvian friend who is *livid* [I won’t go into the many reasons he is livid, but they’re heartbreaking] that Biden doesn’t have boots on the ground in Ukraine. He’s livid that France doesn’t. And I tried to explain to him that he’s pretending that if he were Dictator of NATO, then he could just turn NATO on a dime and they could swoop in and save Ukraine. But it doesn’t work like that, b/c NATO isn’t a dictatorship, but rather an alliance of free nations, almost all real democracies. You can’t expect them to act as you wish, b/c those populations need to be convinced, need to reach a certain unity of purpose and intent, before they will direct their leaders to take action.
And sadly, the sacrifices of the people of Ukraine are probably a necessary part of that process. It’s sickening. But it’s always the way it’s been with democracies, and we shouldn’t want it to be different. Democracies don’t go to war easily. We should be glad of that, and ashamed of when we weren’t like that (fucking *Iraq War*).
Chetan Murthy
@Kent:
It’s certainly in the front of my mind, not the back, every moment I think about this situation. I want that bastard to die horribly, and as he’s dying, I want someone screaming at him “this is payback for 2016, you motherfucker!”
Sadly, that won’t come to pass, ah well.
John Cole
WAIT DOES THIS MEAN DAD HAS RETURNED FROM HIS THREE YEAR TRIP TO THE STORE TO GET CIGARETTES?
CROAKER
@Kent: none and that is silly…
Kent
Regarding NATO.
I don’t think Putin particularly fears NATO in the sense of an Operation Barbarossa-style invasion of Russia.
I do think he tremendously fears NATO’s military capacity to demolish any invasion he might attempt of a NATO country. That would be extreme folly. The combined economy of NATO is probably 20x larger than Russia. And Russia alone is perhaps only 1/3 the size of the former Warsaw Pact. The recent example of Russian mercs going up against a squad of US special forces in Syria is instructive. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html
Anne Laurie
Thank you for this quote, Sooner… and it is indeed great to see you checking in!
Kent
It’s not silly at all. Russia poses an existential threat to this country as they demonstrated in 2016.
Lyrebird
@raven: Hi Raven!
I’m probably too late here…
More than from Tucker Carlson, for sure!
I might be making a serious response to something you meant as humor, idk… If I find myself getting into disagreements with frequent commenters, then they say something I can really agree with, I want to be sure to say something positive.
Jay
@Eolirin:
if sanctions are an “act of War”, the Pootie Poot has to declare or go to war with the West,
a war he can’t win.
During the Cold War, the military response was a First or Second Strike at the nukes and decapitation strikes, once one noticed they were gearing up.
Now we have non nuclear options, better intelligence and most of the Russian counterstrike, ( nuclear subs) will sortie to the Sea of Otosk, because the rest of the worlds oceans arn’t safe for them anymore. Neither is the Sea of Otosk.
Eolirin
@Chetan Murthy: There are potential risks to delay too, like this crisis coming to a head when we have a President DeSantis.
Though you’re probably right about this being necessary to unite us. When even Newsmax is turning on Tucker Carlson, it’s pretty clear how untenable support of Russia is becoming everywhere.
Eolirin
@Jay: Putin doesn’t seem to have a sense of what he can and can’t win. He’s going to lose any conflict he starts with NATO. No question. That doesn’t mean he won’t start one.
CROAKER
@Kent: you are mistaken … and I cannot correct that …
Wag
Welcome home.
Lyrebird
I don’t know, but I’m sympathetic… still waiting for the day when the people who slimed John Kerry to show some shame.
Jay
@Eolirin:
which is the problem. The UNGA can raise the issue, have a vote, and when it gets to the UNSC, Russia and China vetos it.
think of it like the Electoral College.
Cacti
@raven: My geriatric groupie just can’t quit me, can you?
Go babble in a corner about Vietnam. The lucid people are talking.
Eolirin
@Jay: Can Russia really veto a measure to determine whether they’re the proper successor to the USSR seat? If they can that seems really broken.
I could see China abstaining instead of vetoing if Putin doesn’t listen to Xi about knocking it off.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
sucks that we don’t have upvotes.???
Soonergrunt
@John Cole: Well, old-school Law and Order came back, so…
mrmoshpotato
@Lyrebird:
Never gonna happen, unfortunately.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: The DW live feed seems to have been lost.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Eolirin:
Pootie Poot has been playing the Madman angle for over a decade now,
Syria, stalled, in Libya, back heels, Wagner in Mozambique and the CAR are getting eaten.
DPR and LPR have been stalled in place for 8 years, even with Russian aid.
They are still trying to recover the chucks of the last hypersonic test, and his globe trotting torpedo/robot/nuke is still just sci fi.
Jay
@Eolirin:
yup, the key thing was the UNGA said China, not Taiwan was the technical seat holder. Because of “Nixon’s Going to China”, and Russia/Chinese detente, Taiwan lost the UNSC vote.
Lyrebird
Sadly, I’m pretty sure you’re right.
Going to go say thanks that people like Zelenskyy and Chef J Andres exist and get some sleep.
geg6
So good to see you back, Sooner. I’ve missed your voice here.
Back in my undergrad days and as a polisci major, Mill was one of my favorites.
Eolirin
@Jay: I’m not sure what point you’re trying to get at there? His ability to be successful isn’t really an issue. It’s his potential willingness to try, because he’s crazy, and consequently start a conflict between nuclear powers.
Eolirin
@Jay: Okay, so if Taiwan couldn’t veto that vote, that means Russia wouldn’t be able to either if it came to that. We’d just need enough of the UNSC to say yes? I mean, and the UNGA first, obviously.
Mallard Filmore
@Eolirin: As Subsole said a short time ago, I also get what you are saying … and I admire your persistence in trying to make it clear.
Eolirin
@Mallard Filmore: Thank you for the kind words.
Subsole
@Kent: It is my fervent hope that those sanctions cut off some oxygen to some of America’s very own Fifth Columns…
I will likely be buried smoldering over what those bastards did to us. I inagine Biden feels it even more, since he likely has a much clearer picture of the scope of the crime.
Jay
@Eolirin:
and that’s the problem, not enough yes votes, too many abstains and enough no’s, ( right now) for anything that get’s through the UNGA to fail.
still, if unsuccessful, still worth a try, just for the politics.
Eolirin
@Jay: It’s maybe possible if things continue to get worse in terms of global opinion toward Russia that there’ll be enough yeses. Still very much a long shot, but it would be nice.
Jay
@Eolirin:
the thing is, if we, the West are focused, our response to Pootie Poot ramping up his nukes, won’t be nuclear, to start.
As the Armenian – Azerbaijan conflict demonstrated, things have changed big time. Remote strikes that used to be nuclear, ICBM’s and Nuclear Cruise Missiles can now been done with “almost” invisible drones and loitering munitions.
The Azerbaijani Military used remote control An-2 biplanes to mimic drones, Armenian radars then tried to paint them, then Harrops and Bactayar Drones, unseen by the radar, smoked the air defences.
Jay
@Eolirin:
it’s worth a try, and worth to keep trying.
gene108
@Chetan Murthy:
Imran Khan did not cancel an already scheduled meeting with Putin, which was on the day of or day after the invasion. I’m not sure what Pakistan’s official position is.
India abstained from voting in the recent UN Security Council vote, along with China and the UAE. That’s not supporting Russia. It’s not a condemnation. It’s just really neutral.
sab
@MagdaInBlack: Gin and Tonic.
Soonergrunt
@geg6: Thanks!
Good to be home, even if only for a short while.
Ruckus
@Subsole:
Thank you.
Dr. King was a great man. He understood that sometimes you have to assert your rights as a human being. The color of your skin, your gender, where you were born, that your parents were human, all of those never, ever make you less of a human, none of them make you less important than anyone else. What you do TO other humans can. You want respect as a human, you have to respect the other humans on the planet. Not one of us is better than the rest, but many can be worse. And are.
We see that in Ukraine, it’s happening right now. That grandmother that walked up to and talked to the Russian, she knew why he was there but she still respected him as a human. She knew he was there to steal her and her fellow citizens country from them. She still respected him as a human. I imagine that was hard for her, she did it anyway, even as he had disrespected her and her country by being there. He may feel or know that he didn’t really have a choice, but we always do, even if it becomes our most costly decision. We have to decide to be better, and then we have to do it.
That’s why you don’t just bomb or shoot everyone, or put a knee on their neck for 9 minutes, it’s why you spend the time to attempt better. Otherwise you are the same or actually worse, and otherwise you never improve the world. We are all born, live and die. It’s what and how we do that middle part, that living part, that matters. Most of us will only make an extremely small improvement but some of us will make something/everything significantly worse. Those small improvements add up and can overcome the significantly worse.
Miss Bianca
@CROAKER: Goddamnit, now I’m crying again.
Miss Bianca
@Eolirin:
And other people have repeatedly argued that you’re wrong. Are you going to keep flogging that horse till it’s not only dead, but flayed? Fine, you want to escalate the conflict and send NATO troops into Ukraine and possibly trigger a nuclear response because Hitler. Other people think that’s not the right course of action. Looks like we’re at an impasse here, and guess what? You’re not convincing anybody.
jonas
@schrodingers_cat:
There was also the matter of western-aligned Pahlavi Persia there between them. Russia had a strong interest in keeping India friendly/non-aligned.
Anonymous
@Sally:
“…off to vandalize a consulate.”
I recommend a gallon pail of bright yellow oil paint, and a gallon pail of bright blue oil paint. Each applied liberally to each side of the consulate front door to avoid mixing them.
Then run away ASAP.
Pay cash, wear a plain mask for the whole day. Good luck !