(Image found here)
Before we start I just want to take a moment and deal with some of the domestic politics news from today because its actually tangential to Putin’s reinvasion of Ukraine. As AL dealt with in her post earlier today, we now know that almost 8 hours is missing from the White House call logs and related White House records regarding Trump’s activities on 6 January 2021. As AL covered in her post, speculation has immediately gone to Trump using one or more burner phones. Not least of which is because Trump blurted out he didn’t know what a burner phone was!
While I think that is a possibility, I also think there is a simpler and far better documented explanation for why there is nothing on the official call logs: Trump was using one or more of his unsecured personal cell phones and/or using Dan Scavino’s unsecured personal cell phone to do business related to the insurrection during the insurrection.
Way back in May 2018 I did a post about the then new reporting that Trump would either make or take calls from people on his unsecured cell phone at all hours. Subsequent reporting indicated that these calls included his informal advisors Sean Hannity and Lou Dobbs, Jeanine Pirro, as well as informed speculations that they included calls to or from Bibi Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and other world leaders. While these calls often took place at night while Trump was in the residence, the reporting did indicate that he would take calls from people like Dobbs during meetings in the Oval Office and then put the call on speaker so that Dobbs could tell whomever was in attendance what he was telling the president. A little over a year later we got reporting that the cell signal collectors that kept popping up in DC were being placed by Israeli intelligence. I did a post on that in September 2019.
So is it possible or even probable that Trump had a burner phone that day? Sure, without a doubt. But it is also, based on what we actually know about how Trump operated while president, that he was just using one of his unsecured personal cell phones or Scavino’s unsecured personal cell phone, which Scavino used to tweet as Trump from Trump’s now suspended account. Or a combination of the two. This would explain why Trump and Scavino have fought so hard to prevent Scavino from having to turn anything over to the January 6 Select Committee, appear before the committee, have fought to prevent Scavino’s phone carrier from doing so, and why others like Congressman Kevin McCarthy have made threats about what will happen to the cell carriers if the GOP retakes the majority in November. I think either explanation is both possible and plausible, but given that we have long standing documentation for Trump getting around the White House switchboard and the call logs by using his unsecured personal cell phone, I’m not sure a burner was even necessary. Especially if he thought he would be successful in pulling off the auto-golpe. Because if he had, no one was going to look into what happened because he would essentially be a dictator.
So what does this have to do with Ukraine? Well the informed speculation that one of the people Trump would talk to on his unsecured personal cell phone was Putin.
Much, much more after the jump!
The reason things were weird today in regard to Putin’s reinvasion of Ukraine has to do with the strange reporting regarding what actually happened at today’s Ukrainian-Russian ceasefire negotiations. First The Financial Times‘ Max Seddon reported: (video clip at the link):
Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”
Then three hours later Seddon clarified the reporting:
“De-escalation does not mean a ceasefire,” the head of Russia’s delegation now says.
This seems to happen every time The Financial Times covers these negotiations. They first report Russia’s spin as fact representing a consensus from both Ukraine and Russia. Everyone and their brother looking for a ray of sunshine to finally burst through the dark clouds of war grabs on and starts prattling on about off ramps and face saving and this is great. Finally, either Ukraine or Russia – and it’s usually Ukraine – clarify what actually happened and the whole reporting just looks silly. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Here’s how the advisor to President Zelenskyy summed everything up:
Unconditional security guarantees for Ukraine, ceasefire, effective decisions on humanitarian corridors and humanitarian convoys, observance by the parties of the rules and customs of war. Difficult negotiations for peace in our country. Istanbul round right now…
Briefly. Security guarantees treaty with an enhanced analogue of Article 5 of NATO. Guarantor states (USA, UK, Turkey, France, Germany etc.) legally actively involved in protecting Ukraine from any aggression. Implementation through a referendum & parliaments of the guarantor states.As for Crimea, it is offered to clearly record the parties’ intention to settle the issue exclusively through Ukrainian-Russian bilateral negotiations within 15 years. It’s also offered not to resolve the Crimean issue by military means in any case. Only political & diplomatic efforts.
‘Ukrainians are not naive,’ we see risks in peace talks. Zelensky called not to trust any promises given by Russia. “Of course, we see all the risks. Of course, we don’t have a reason to trust the words of representatives of a country that wages war against us.”
And:
Zelensky draws the obvious conclusion from the talks with Russia in Istanbul: “I see no basis for confidence. Our only guarantee is the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
Quite simply, what Foreign Minister Podolyak is proposing is simply not going to happen, even as an intermediate deal to establish a ceasefire. Leaving aside the fact that I’m not sure the idea of letting Putin and/or Russia maintain control of Crimea over a fifteen year window of bilateral negotiations and having the status of the Russian occupied Ukrainian territories in the Donbas indefinitely is going to fly. Especially as subsequent reporting indicated this would all be put to a vote by Ukrainians once the war ended. I cannot imagine Ukrainians voting to embrace neutrality and have Crimea remain under Russian control for fifteen more years in the aftermath of the war. Ukrainian journalis Oleksiy Sorokin sums up my thoughts on this:
– Freezing the question of Crimea for 15 years.
– Freezing the question of Donbas indefinitely.
– Signing a new version of the “Budapest Memorandum.”
– Changing the constitution to delete the aspiration to join NATO.
I don’t see how this will pass via a referendum in Ukraine.
The other thing that is not going to happen is negotiating a treaty with the US that establishes clearly delineated, ironclad security guarantees that require the US to treat an attack on Ukraine as if it was an attack on a NATO ally. I want to be very, very clear here. I don’t think the Biden administration will have a problem negotiating such a treaty. I do know that it will never be ratified in the US Senate. It takes a 2/3rds majority to ratify a treaty in the US Senate and that is, quite simply, never going to happen again for any treaty as long as the current Republican Party continues to function as a parliamentary party in the Senate and denies cloture on everything using the non-talking filibuster. There’s a reason that the Law of the Sea treaty has still not been ratified despite it getting started under a Republican administration: the Republican Senate caucus, whether in the majority or the minority, refuses to allow it to come up for a vote by denying it cloture despite each successive Chief of Naval Operations and Commandant of the Coast Guard telling them it needs to be ratified and asking them to do so. Right now just one senator, Rand Paul, is holding up the bipartisan legislation that passed the House 424-8 to strip Russia of most favored nation trading status with the US. I guarantee he would withhold unanimous consent for this type of treaty with Ukraine and enough Republicans would make it clear that they wouldn’t vote for cloture, dooming it.
Additionally, Germany, France, Turkey, and the UK aren’t going to support this either. None of them have the capability to actually defend Ukraine on their own. Two weeks ago Germany and France tried to prevent the EU from putting Ukraine on the fast track for membership. A little over a month ago Germany preemptively decided to abandon Ukraine to the Russians! Britain has one Army combat brigade!
I’m honestly not sure what is going on here other than the Ukrainians are playing games with the Russians because they know that nothing the Russians negotiate or agree to can be trusted. I mean this was the guidance the Ukrainians gave their negotiators!
Ukraine warned its negotiators not to eat, drink or even touch anything as they headed into talks with Russia in Istanbul on Tuesday, following allegations that Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and others may have been poisoned during previous talks.
“I advise anyone going for negotiations with Russia not to eat or drink anything, preferably avoid touching surfaces,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an interview on national television channel, Ukrayina 24
That really gives one the warm and fuzzies. Or is that the polonium?
Here’s Anders Aslund’s, the former economic advisor to both Russia (1991-1994) and Ukraine (1994-1997), take. I think the reference to three dead by poisoning is a drafting error; I think he is referring to the reports that Abromovich and two Ukrainian negotiators were poisoned in a previous round of negotiations.
- A good friend said that Putin’s war in Ukraine could take three forms: 1. Hitler’s attack on Poland in 1939: failed! 2. The Finnish Winter war 1939-40: loss but territorial gain = expansion of Russian Donbass. 3. Russo-Japanese war 1904-5: Complete failure.
- I bet on the Russo-Japanese war, which led to the Russian revolution of 1905, but the Finnish Winter War scenario, with an expansion of Russian Donbass is still possible.
- It was the Russians who called for the current round of negotiations. They wanted it to take place in Belarus, but the Ukrainians refused after three of their delegation members died mysteriously. There is no official explanation of where or how from either side.
- The Ukrainians insisted on Istanbul, and the Russians conceded, clarifying they are now the demandeurs. It looks as if the Russians hope for a face-saving agreement on an expansion of their holding of Donbass, but the Ukrainians are not likely to agree, nor should they.
- The Ukrainians state readiness to declare neutrality, but only if they get credible security guarantees, corresponding to NATO Charter Article 5. Right they are. The US, UK and Russia cheated them in 1994 with security “assurances,” which the Ukrainians thought were guarantees.
- Since nobody will give Ukraine credible security guarantees, the war will continue. As Russia is concentrating its troops to the Donbass, it is vital that the Ukrainians first rout the Russian troops around Kyiv & the North & protect their troops in Donbass against encirclement.
- I continue to believe that Ukraine will win this war and pretty soon. Note that the Russians are not digging in around Kyiv and Chernihiv as all these military experts have claimed after they failed the first offensive.
- In this situation, it is vital that the West reinforces its sanctions on Russia to really sink the Russian economy. 1. Tighten the financial sanctions! 2. Sanction oil and gas exports! 3. Sanction all shipping! 4. Sanction all insurance to Russia! 5. Sanction Putin’s family!
Well would you look at that!
⚡️ France says humanitarian mission to Mariupol not possible ‘at this stage.’
French President Emmanuel Macron asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to provide a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol, however, he didn’t receive a positive answer, says Macron’s office.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 29, 2022
Putin just told Macron he wants Mariupol to surrender. Russian diplomacy in action.
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 29, 2022
Who could have possibly seen either of those coming? Eez a puzzlement!
Here’s today’s British Ministry of Defense update.
Mariupol:
70 people from Mariupol maternity hospital no. 2, including medical personnel and patients, have been forcibly deported to Russia, local authorities said. More than 20k Mariupol residents were forcibly deported earlier to filtration camps in Russia, their Ukrainian IDs seized
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) March 29, 2022
Trostyanets:
This is what Trostyanets, a town of 20,000 in #Sumy region, northeast #Ukraine, just liberated by the Ukrainian forces from the #Russia|n occupation, looks like now: pic.twitter.com/ARrc25bT8Q
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) March 29, 2022
Chernihiv:
Starting a thread after checking in with my family in Ukraine. Please read and consider sharing.
The Human Face of Putin’s War in Ukraine: My Family in Chernihiv.
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) March 27, 2022
Putin has turned the southern resort seaport of Mariupol to rubble but amazingly continues to meet stiff resistance from Ukrainian troops determined to hold the city. Putin is not giving up. He still holds entire Ukrainian cities hostage.
He is currently focusing on the country’s northernmost city of Chernihiv. It’s a historic gateway to the capital of Kyiv and has been bombed nonstop since the war began a month ago.
Russian forces have encircled and mined the entire city and have prevented humanitarian aid from entering, including essential medicine, food and water. According to the mayor, the entire city has been destroyed, including churches, hospitals, schools and libraries.
My family members in Chernihiv are also being held hostage by Putin. My aunt Marusya, her 23-year-old daughter Natasha and her 3-year-old son Romchik have been in the mouldy basement-bunker of their old apartment building since the start of the war a month ago.
Their apartment building, like most others, has been badly damaged. They emerge only briefly to search for food and water each time risking their lives. The bombing and shelling has been non-stop.
It takes an especially hard toll on the many children, sick elderly and pets in this bunker. No one can evacuate the city because it is surrounded by Russian forces, mined and because the main bridge leading to Kyiv was bombed last Wednesday.
The city has no electricity, gas, water and heat. Some people bravely cook outdoors. Many are drawing water from Desna, the local river. More than 60 people have been killed in bread lines by Russian shelling and snipers since the war started.
The bombing continues to increase with each passing day and so does the city’s death count. Human lives don’t matter to Putin, including his own young conscripts used as cannon fodder in his latest war in Ukraine.
Putin has never personally experienced the horror of war. However, he does have considerable experience in starting wars, especially short victorious ones against weaker neighbors. Ukraine has proven to be an exception and a colossal miscalculation for Putin.
My cousin Natasha and family. This is life with Putin. He must be defeated. pic.twitter.com/IMBdckYK4x
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) March 27, 2022
Some good news:
My family was able to get out of Chernihiv. Natasha’s husband had to stay behind and while they are still far from safe they have made it to their next stop in this journey. Thank you to everyone fighting for them and the millions of others.
Anything good on Russian TV?
Meanwhile on Russian state TV:
Host Evgeny Popov says it's time for the Russian people to call on Americans to change "the regime in the U.S." before its term expires "and to again help our partner Trump to become President."https://t.co/orPMoKoxwG pic.twitter.com/sPVDhVWm6Q
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) March 29, 2022
Not so much…
Nothing good on American TV either:
Former President Donald Trump in a new interview called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to release information regarding alleged dealings between Eastern European oligarchs and Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden’s son.
Trump’s remarks, in an interview with discredited far-right journalist John Solomon, were published Tuesday by the “Just the News” television show on the Real America’s Voice network.
In making his claims about Hunter Biden, Trump cited the findings of a controversial, highly politicized investigation by Senate Republicans into the Bidens, which was published just weeks before the 2020 election and produced little new evidence of wrongdoing.
Trump has repeatedly promoted dubious claims of foreign business dealings by Hunter Biden, specifically alleging that he received millions of dollars from the wife of Moscow’s late mayor, Yury Luzhkov.
“She gave him $3.5 million so now I would think Putin would know the answer to that. I think he should release it,” Trump said in the interview, conducted at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. “I think we should know that answer.”
Trump failed to mention that he himself sought to do business with Luzhkov’s government in the late 1990s, according to POLITICO. Trump also was pursuing high-profile real estate deals in Russia as recently as 2016, including a proposed Trump Tower Moscow.
Trump’s new interview is far from the first time the former president has suggested or openly demanded that foreign governments intervene to damage his domestic political rivals.
In 2016, Trump publicly asked the Russian government to obtain and release emails from the private email server that then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton used during her tenure as secretary of State.
Here’s the actual video clip:
Trump asks his friend Putin to take a break from murdering innocent civilians to help him frame Biden. pic.twitter.com/jWGz5CGQ1r
— Ron Filipkowski ?? (@RonFilipkowski) March 29, 2022
More regarding Russian troops traipsing about in Chornobyl.This would seem to be ungood!
LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) – Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the “Red Forest”, kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said.
The two sources said soldiers in the convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear. The second Chernobyl employee said that was “suicidal” for the soldiers because the radioactive dust they inhaled was likely to cause internal radiation in their bodies.
Ukraine’s state nuclear inspectorate said on Feb. 25 there had been an increase in radiation levels at Chernobyl as a result of heavy military vehicles disturbing the soil. But until now, details of exactly what happened had not emerged.
The two Ukrainian workers who spoke to Reuters were on duty when Russian tanks entered Chernobyl on Feb. 24 and took control of the site, where staff are still responsible for the safe storage of spent nuclear fuel and supervising the concrete-encased remains of the reactor that blew up in 1986.
The regular soldiers one of the workers spoke to when they worked alongside them in the facility had not heard about the explosion, he said.
Much, much more at the link!
This is just horrific. It is the first actual long form reporting in English on this, rather than reporting by tweet. From The NY Times:
The crime first came to light last week, when Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, said in a Facebook post that a Russian soldier had killed an unarmed civilian and then repeatedly raped his wife. Days later, the White House said it was concerned about emerging reports of sexual violence in Ukraine.
Then on Monday night, The Times of London published the woman’s chilling account. Using the pseudonym Natalya, she told a reporter she had been in her home in a village near the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, when she heard footsteps and a shot rang out. Moments later her husband lay dead outside her front door, and two Russian soldiers were at her side, one holding a gun to her head.
“I shot your husband because he was a Nazi,” the gunman told her, before he and the other soldier raped her, as her 4-year-old son sobbed in a boiler room next door, according to the Times. She said she was later raped a second time by the soldiers, and eventually managed to flee to western Ukraine with her son.
“I could have been silent, but when we got to the police, my husband’s sister made me speak up, and there was no going back,” she was quoted saying in the Times. “I understand that many people who have been hurt would stay silent because they are afraid. Lots of people don’t believe terrible things like this happen.”
A Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, rejected Ms. Venediktova’s allegation, telling reporters in Moscow last week that “we don’t believe it at all.”
“It is a lie,” Mr. Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency.
Ms. Venediktova said a Russian soldier is wanted for arrest “on suspicion of violation of the laws and customs of war.”
Ukrainian officials contend that numerous cases of rape and sexual violence have occurred in the country since Russia’s invasion began on Feb. 24.
Maria Mezentseva, a Ukrainian member of parliament, detailed the woman’s account to Sky News on Sunday and said there were “many more victims.” She did not provide further details or say how she learned of other assaults, but said that she expected them to come to light once the victims were “ready to talk.”
“We will definitely not be silent,” she said.
Much, much more at the link. It is grim reading.
Your daily Bayraktar. With a guest appearance by a Javelin. And a Ukraina…
On a sunnier note, meet @janebespala (TikTok). She won’t mind me sharing #Ukraine’s fiercest fighters…#Bayraktar #Javelin #Ukraina #StandWithUkraine #Zelensky #SlavaUkraïni pic.twitter.com/2KdyPJtGqc
— ??Justaguy?☠️ (@reports2u) March 23, 2022
We’ll finish with this:
Little Ukrainians thank nations with big hearts hosting them during this difficult time. We join their words of gratitude.
more ♥️ here: https://t.co/wYhQLAXgWT pic.twitter.com/1Axosj29hj
— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) March 28, 2022
Open thread!
SiubhanDuinne
Oh wow, that last video with the Ukrainian kids thanking host countries. Smiling and tearing up simultaneously.
Jerzy Russian
At this point they should just stick to subspace “radio”, like they did for the first treaty between the Romulans and the Federation.
Fair Economist
I’ve been hoping for good news on the Mykolaiv/Kherson axis after indications the Ukrainians had gotten the upper hand but I’m not seeing anything. I suspect this is not good, but I guess we’ll find out.
marcopolo
Adam any comments regarding the ammo dump that blew up in Belgorod a few hours ago.
I’ve read speculation that it could have just been mishandling of explosives on the ground or a possible Russian false flag operation (ie they bombed themselves), but a few folks have pointed out that the location is close enough to the border w/ Ukraine that it could have been artillery, a short range missile, a drone strike, or some kind of on the ground sabotage.
Looked like a fairly large explosion (video here)–hopefully lots of supplies got blown up.
marcopolo
@Fair Economist: Latest I read was yesterday that UA forces were on the outskirts of Kherson (the city) and that it was now considered a contested area. Mykolaiv Oblast is now considered to be completely in UA hands, though RU forces are still bombing the city using missiles (footage of a missile striking the Mykolaiv gov’t center yesterday). Luckily the mayor, very popular Korean-Ukrainian guy, wasn’t in his office at the time
Edited to add: thanks for the continuing posts Adam.
Alison Rose ???
Fuck you, you fucking fuck.
Thank you, Adam. Putting these posts together every day has got to be wearing away at your soul a little bit, but your efforts are incredibly appreciated.
Aziz, light!
How long after some sort of agreement brings the war to an end will there be a push by the big money players to get the sanctions lifted so they can get back to business as usual? I have no confidence that the Western powers will make the long-term sacrifices needed to compel the Russian people to remove their tyrant.
Ishiyama
If it’s like the Russo-Japanese War, can we see the Russian fleet on the bottom of the Black Sea?
oldster
Thanks, Adam!
I wrote to my president yesterday to ask him to give Ukraine what it needs to win this war, and to do it overtly or covertly or however it takes. My letter won’t matter much, but maybe a lot of them will.
As to the ammo dump — given Russia’s need for resupply, I seriously doubt it was a false flag operation. They are no longer looking for pretexts to invade, escalate, or violate the laws of warfare. But I do think Russian carelessness and incompetence is a close competitor to Ukrainian artillery or sabotage in causing it.
Also, I believe that grammatical sticklers prefer the expression “got blowed up” to “got blown up,” as in “pa says the fireworks stand done got blowed up.”
VeniceRiley
Macron is Charlie Brown to football holder Lucy Van Putin.
BeautifulPlumage
Definitely needed the Thank You video after the report above it.
And thank you Adam for getting us the big picture & small details. The daily bayraktar tonight was special (and Ukraina is a cutie!).
Ishiyama
@marcopolo: My first assumption is that Ukrainian special forces on four wheel bikes, with good weapons, are making preemptive strikes on the Russian concentrations in that area.
marcopolo
@oldster: Hah, I am just one of those urban elitists with an English BA who has gaps in his knowledge of the proper military vernacular when it comes to describing things that go boom.
As for Russian military explosives handling: this was posted to one of the threads I read about the Belgorod explosion: Russian soldiers (or their territorial buddies) unloading anti-tank mines. I cannot attest to whether it is from the current conflict but OMG all those mines pouring out of the back of that truck onto the ground. I’d have shit my pants.
BeautifulPlumage
I haven’t seen anything on the Russian stock market finally opening when perusing my usual sources. Anyone want to weigh in so my lazy ass doesn’t have to find & interpret the info? I’m definitely not an economist!
marcopolo
@BeautifulPlumage: Reopened for limited trading last Thursday. Yesterday all stocks were available to be traded–though no short selling allowed. Here’s a piece on it:
Okay, I’m to bed, everyone play nice and have a good night.
oldster
@marcopolo:
No special military knowledge here, just bs’ing for laughs. (BA in a similar libtard squish discipline.)
sdhays
@marcopolo: My extremely limited understanding is that the Ukrainian armed forces fight in small, flexible groups with the aim of disrupting Russian activity, which makes them difficult to attack and eliminate. Their immediate goal isn’t to push through and take territory. They weaken their opponents until they have to withdraw or are weak enough to be taken quickly in a full-on attack.
So, without any specific reporting about Kherson, the lack of new territory being taken doesn’t necessarily mean anything other than it hasn’t “ripened” yet for retaking. These things take time. After all, it’s only been a few days (a week?) since they retook Mykolaiv.
sdhays
I have to go to bed, but I’m astonished at how Mariupol is still not fully under Russian control. How have those defenders not run out of food or ammunition by now? And even the rosiest of predictions can’t expect relief anytime soon.
Jackie
Just now watching the 11th Hour and attorney Joyce Vance is strongly suggesting Trump was using Scavino’s cell phone, and/or whoever’s SS agent’s phone.
Now back to read the rest of your “must read” post!
BeautifulPlumage
@marcopolo: thank you!
BeautifulPlumage
Adam, is the release of FSB agent information hampering Russia right now? I can’t imagine Putin is happy about it.
Kelly
@marcopolo: Fits with previous info about primitive Russian logistics. Oh my just pile them in the back of the truck like cordwood. The sideboards will keep the cargo from bouncing out.
Gin & Tonic
Adam, minor correction. In your text you refer to Podolyak as Foreign Minister. He is an advisor to the President, Dmytro Kuleba is FM.
Omnes Omnibus
@sdhays: People can be far tougher than we tend to think they are.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Of course, those two guys are like the soul brothers of fucking up. Only Putin would stupid enough talk Trump into something as dumb as trying fix the election after it was lost and not before and only Trump would be idiot enough to listen.
Brachiator
I wonder how the GOP and Trump supporters feel knowing that Putin views the Orange Beast as the greatest friend an autocrat ever could have.
This is so tiresome. Trump doesn’t know how to let go of a losing hand. This crap was rejected in 2020. It is not going to get any fresher with repetition.
sdhays
@Omnes Omnibus: Indeed they are.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
So both cases Putin is screwed; One is obvious enough how but two Donbass will be complete wreck and an active insurgency, in other words another money pit for the Russian government.
Adam L Silverman
@marcopolo: I saw it, not sure what to make of it until there’s more info available.
Mallard Filmore
As an old fart, I hope I live long enough to read the works of historians about this war, from geopolitical scale down to tactical operations. I am in awe.
https://youtu.be/LPjDfUlmCNw
“128th Mountain Assault Brigade blew up the command base of the national guard of Russia!”
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed. Thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@Aziz, light!: The push will be before the war ends.
Chetan Murthy
@Mallard Filmore: I watched a little of the vid, and wondered “how did they get to Dagestan?” and so I googled. I think this was a field HQ in UA for this RU unit from Dagestan. So, still great news, but …. not as cinematic.
Adam L Silverman
@BeautifulPlumage: I would expect so.
Soprano2
Using rape against an enemy is as old as war. It’s disgusting and entirely predictable. When I read something about Ukrainian teenage girls using knives to defend themselves, I had grim thoughts.
Adam L Silverman
So much for scaling back.
Rocks
Adam – so let’s assume that Putin wants to pull units out from Kiev so he can reinforce Donbas and the land bridge to the Crimean peninsula. First, he’s got to pull them north out of Ukraine, with Ukraine forces degrading them as they go. Then, he’s got to move them all the way east to Russia through Belarus, where civilian sabatoge has rendered the rail system inoperable. Then he’s got to move them all the way to Voronezh and down to Luhansk. Isn’t that going to take a great deal of time, gasoline and maintenance that he doesn’t really have right now?
West of the Rockies
@Soprano2:
I’m nearly out of empathy for Russian soldiers. White phosphorus, bombing maternity hospitals, raping people…
Chetan Murthy
@West of the Rockies: Orcs
cazador
So the Israeli Intel community knows what trump did on jan 6 and how often he talked to putin.
Chetan Murthy
@cazador: I’d be shocked if the NSA didn’t have recordings. I’d be shocked if our intelligence community didn’t know, didn’t have ironclad proof. And yet, nothing is done.
“A republic, if you can keep it”.
oldster
@Chetan Murthy:
Usually I would tut tut you about the dangers of Dehumanizing the Other, but the scary thing in this case is that the Wagner thugs and their fanboys will probably embrace the label of orcs. They would rather be death-heads than humans. Whatever the 18 y.o. conscripts may be like, the professionals in the Ru army have all embraced a pathological death cult of hazing and sadism. And so have too many right-wing Americans, with their punisher skulls and monochrome mockeries of the US flag.
cazador
@Chetan Murthy: Agreed. But it might not be such a wise move to have our intel community acknowledge they are eavesdropping their boss. On the other hand, the 2016 election proved how serious we take email server management.
Adam L Silverman
@Rocks: Pretty much.
Also, the Ukranians spell it Kyiv.
cazador
@oldster: I believe that orcs is the term that ukrainians are already calling the russian invaders.
Adam L Silverman
@cazador: Pretty much every intel service. But definitely the Israelis.
Chetan Murthy
@oldster:
From Blade Runner:
This war in UA is part of the same war that is being fought in America. Only here it’s cold. But if Putin has his way (and even if he loses) it could very well turn hot here. That war is targeted at me and mine. So (as I said to Omnes last night) I care not one iota for this “oh, we can’t dehumanize them”. They’re going to dehumanize me and my family — that’s their goddamn plan fer crissake. As far as I’m concerned, the only reason to not murder every goddamn Russian soldier is b/c it might not be the most effective way to end the war in UA. And I’ll leave that to Zelenskiyy and his generals. But as far as I’m concerned, they’re all orcs.
And the only good Republican is a dead Republican. They want me and mine dead; and I return the compliment.
Chetan Murthy
@cazador: I’m fine with that. The solution was to assassinate the bastard (TFG). This bullshit of “we know he committed the most serious of crimes against our Republic, but we can’t tell you, and we’re not gonna do jack-shit about it” ….. fuck if I can figure out why these people are even *employed*. Imbeciles.
sanjeevs
@Adam L Silverman: Were any friendly nations listening in?
Could any of them be persuaded to accidentally, anonymously, leak them.
ian
@Chetan Murthy:
YMMV, but having intelligence agencies illegally eavesdrop on and oust presidencies is not a route I want to go down. That direction also ends in fascism.
Adam L Silverman
@sanjeevs: Every foreign intel agency – friendly, neutral, and hostile – that could afford the tech to listen in was listening. I cannot imagine any of them turning it over as it would make overt what is now covert.
cazador
@sanjeevs: This is where I hope this is going. But what nation would do this knowing that he might be re-installed after the Republicans steal the 2024 election? (which they are definitely leading to as of now)
Chetan Murthy
@ian: As I noted:
More useless than tits on a boar, our elected officials. Sure, they’re workin’ hard to defend democracy in UA, and that’s great. But here in America? Hell, they’re all linin’ up to lay on their backs and pull up their shirts to have their bellies slit open by Teh Fash [sic]. Imbeciles.
sanjeevs
@Adam L Silverman: Can’t this be dumped anonymously? Shit, Britain have just the guy to do this sitting in Belmarsh prison.
cazador
@sanjeevs: Assange is basically a russian agent at this point. Why would he do anything to hurt the trump/putin cabal he has so consistently supported in the past?
Medicine Man
So France and Germany have naive, disconnected leadership; Russia is a hollowed out kleptocratic ****hole run by deranged old men; and the USA is hobbled by a claque of deranged old men who want to turn the country into a kleptocratic ****hole.
It’s like we’re all having a race to see who can be levelled the fastest by their own conceits and the Ukrainians get the unenviable task of playing the millstone.
Maybe Nature has been too kind to us.
Mike in DC
Assuming that Ukraine can shift some forces out of the Kyiv region to relieve Cherniviv, Sumy and Kharkiv to the NE and E, and to help take Kherson and maybe Melitopol to the South, then the final move is to protect the supply corridor to the eastern forces. At that point it becomes about defeating the Russian forces and pushing them back. Mariupol, sadly, won’t be saved at the last moment. But their resistance has given Ukraine time to win the war.
topclimber
Adam, you do a great job sifting through the fog of war. We all appreciate your efforts.
I disagree with your pessimism about negotiations. Neutrality, which I believe Zelenskyy offered before the invasion, will, as you say, depend on how good the security guarantees are. You seem to dismiss them out of hand. I suggest we wait for details. Neutrality with EU membership is on the table which is also big.
It is also progress that Ukraine proposes a 15-year delay on Crimea’s status. The urgency now is to get Russians out of heartland Ukraine and stop the killing. A democratic state there with EU membership is a bigger threat to Putin than the tenth of a loaf that controlling Crimea for 15 years will give him. By then he may well be gone and his kleptocratic state further diminished.
Time is on Ukraine’s side in many things except saving its people from bombardment and starvation.Obviously the sticky points are going to be the eastern oblasts. Who will keep the peace pending their final status? Hopefully the diplomats come up with something that works. It wouldn’t hurt if the UA manages to surround a chunk of Russians near Kyiv and/or can relieve the siege of Maripol.
One small issue: I have seen the bolded information below from Anders Aslund nowhere else:“It was the Russians who called for the current round of negotiations. They wanted it to take place in Belarus, but the Ukrainians refused after three of their delegation members died mysteriously. There is no official explanation of where or how from either side.” Sickened I heard, dead no.
ETA: Hopefully the paragraph breaks I want have happened.
Adam L Silverman
@topclimber: I addressed that in the post before I quoted him.
NotMax
@Medicine Man
Not to be too glib about it….
;)
topclimber
@Adam L Silverman: Yes you did.
Redshift
My somewhat optimistic take on the negotiating positions is that Zelenskyy is offering everything Russia says it wanted, with guarantees that would be palatable if it wasn’t all a pretext for making Ukraine defenseless, knowing that Putin will still reject it. It undercuts anyone in western governments who is dumb enough to still believe Putin’s “concerns” are real and Ukraine should just give in on some of them. He doesn’t have to worry if Ukrainians would accept it or governments could pass the necessary treaty, because he knows Putin is negotiating in bad faith, so it will never get that far. Just speculation, but it makes sense to me.
Ruckus
@West of the Rockies:
I am long ago out of empathy for Russian soldiers. I understand they get told bullshit on a minute by minute basis and that they have little way to contest the truth of the issue. But I also find it rather hard to believe that they don’t have a fucking clue and that they can’t see what’s going on even in their own country, all things considered. Like that they get paid crap and the high ups have yachts often costing a hundred million or more, live in villas while they live in just over slums and make on average, less than most of us on SS make while working for those yacht owners. I posted the other day about the Forbes 400 are all billionaires but I saw today that almost 800 people in the US are billionaires. And I’m pissed off about that. Think about living in Russia.
Ruckus
@topclimber:
I can’t speak for Adam but your comment about his pessimism about negotiations sort of flabbergasts me. Read my fingers. Putin lies. I’d bet he has no idea how to actually tell the truth or at this point in his life if he even has a tiny fraction of an idea about the truth. Putin is a dictator. Period. He lies, he steals, he cheats, he fucks over anyone in his way. He started a fucking war over a country that he wants and thinks is his. He has zero care about anyone’s life other than his and that includes his own citizens. Even the people who blindly and/or greedily support him. His goal is to own Ukraine, nothing less. Not Russia owning it, him owning it, because he owns Russia. Doesn’t even have to actually own it because he’s the dictator in charge. He effectively owns it and everyone who lives there.
Do not underestimate him, do not think he is negotiating at all because he is not. He’s going through the motions and will kill every negotiator that he can, till only Zelenskyy is left to negotiate with and then he will kill him. Putin has zero good faith within a hundred thousand miles of him and never has had more at any time in his life. Do not mistake anything he does or says for anything other than pure avarice.
patrick II
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I would have to disagree there. Ginni Thomas, John Eastman, Peter Navarro, Steve Bannon, Rudy Giuliani, plus other Republicans were all pushing for a coup.
Sloane Ranger
There was a concert to raise money for humanitarian aid for Ukraine here in the UK last night. To be honest, the only people on the bill I’d heard of were Ed Sheeran, Gregory Porter and the Kingdom Choir, but that probably says more about my age than the performers. Anyway, it had raised over £11 million by the end of the night.
debbie
@Sloane Ranger:
I wonder if those Ukrainian musicians were able to follow through and be part of that concert
ETA: These guys:
.
Geminid
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Algiers for six hours of meetings with Algerian officials. One main topic is the status of Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony controlled by Morocco since 1979. The Algerians want to see Western Sahara independent, and support the insurgent Polisario Front to that end.
The other issue on the agenda is Algerian natural gas exports. The country supplies 11% of Europe’s gas and the U.S. wants to Algeria sell more so as to reduce reliance on Russian supply. An EU agency monitoring fossil fuel purchases says that EU countries have paid Russia over 20 billion Euros for oil, gas and coal since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Blinken probably also discussed efforts to make up for the shortage of grain caused by the war. Higher bread prices hit North Africa’s poorer residents especially hard.
CCL
Way late to the thread, but thank you again, Adam. These posts are so important.
Sloane Ranger
@debbie: Didn’t see them but there was a recorded insert with violinists across the world, including many from Ukraine, joining together to play a Ukrainian folk song. The song was kicked off by a guy in Ukraine and it was mentioned that he had to wait for a pause in the bombing before starting.
wetzel
I think as I am getting older I’m developing a severe moral temperment. I am disgusted with Reddit. There is no gore, but the comments in the threads on war footage are disgusting. What gets upvoted and downvoted reflects a prevailing fascist idology. I gave one commenter both barrels. I am very concerned about what Reddit is going to become during this war.
Many of the comments are disgusting. I lose my karma to exhorting people to manage their deportment. I am afraid they will take positive reinforcement from the upvotes. I think many of the upvotes on Reddit in certain topics represent some nation state’s active measure. I hope they don’t reflect a general depraved indifference on the part of the American people. Seeing the way the war is being processed on Reddit has made me certain humanity is doomed to a millenium of apocaplypse just so that Americans can maintain a second stream of pornography.
They hoot and holler and claim the right of blood vengeance on Russia? Without losing anything before? Putin is malignant, but how is it they see the Russians, the kids in the trucks, as monsters you take joy in witnessing their deaths.
I don’t understand how the mind can’t enlarge to imagine the individual subject, the thrownedness into being, a childhood in Vladivostock, running down the cliffs, hunting Siberian tigers with the camera his uncle gave him, joining the Russian Army to get a chance to see something else, now, starving and so cold all his dreams have been for the fire to come because there would be just that moment, which could become infinite gentleness ,like the lithium baths he and his brother, maybe, or his girlfriend found in that cave under the mountain, where they could go hide from their chores no matter how cold it was or day of the year.
This war is having an unhealthy effect on our attitudes about violence in the 70’s 80’s Bandura psychology way. There seems to be a general confusion between reality and entertainment. But there is something more. It demands a study! We are outside of the OODA loop. Reddit has become a propaganda Skinner Box which can be used by nation state actors where karma is the reward or punishment stimulus. I do not want to develop a paranoid temperament, but it’s important to understand the traditions and analytical temperment of FSB, which has been developing method and theory. They have maintained institutional, analytical continuity since the Soviet days when their generational product was the production of reality through its social construction. They have classical, operant and cognitive models. Their methods are now directed outward to global production.
From my perspective, I think people will think of Ukraine as giving the world a new birth of freedom, but if we become intoxicated by this war, fascism will defeat us anyway. I think March 22 will be remembered as The Battle of Hostomel Pocket, and history will see it like El Alamein, as a great turning point victory against fascism. It almost seems like Manifest Destiny that Zelensky seems to have George Washington’s temperament, more than anybody, without being a slaver. I don’t know how to tell a Ukrainian not to think of Russians as ‘orcs’, but they should try their best!
What are the traits of fascism? It’s not an entity that takes of space, excludes other things from its volume, like a stone. Some manifestations seem like a stronger prototype, like a robin seems more like a prototype of a ‘bird’ than an eagle or turkey. The traits of fascism most often cited is Umberto Eco’s analysis of Italian Fascism in his famous essay Ur-Fascism: https://www.pegc.us/archive/Articles/eco_ur-fascism.pdf
I think it is a spiritual war as much as battlefield war, which is why fascism was not defeated utterly in WWII. We are in a war right now against fascist ideology within our information space, Putinism at home and abroad. Putinism, Hitlerism, Mussolini, Francisco Franco, Pinochet, Trump. There is a long military tradition in my family. Americans are a free people. To be free means you manage your deportment about it and behave with honor. There needs to be some way to communicate to Americans they need to be aware that fascism always takes active propaganda measures and to learn how to recognize how can spread like a disease. I would say fascist ideology is anti-Christian but I don’t know enough scripture to be able to justify the claim.
debbie
@Sloane Ranger:
Bummer. Hope they’re okay.
wetzel
Sorry for the book. I don’t have that much useful to say, but I am troubled. There is a manic vibe. War psychology is de-individuating. I can feel it pulling me around. Maybe others are feeling similarly.
The Moar You Know
@oldster: I know that they’ve done so much worse, but those goddamn bootlicker flags – the “blue line” flags – those fucking things just send me around the bend, every time. Absolutely unforgivable. It’s not an American flag. It’s a flag for bootlickers, toadies, and authoritarians. Those people ain’t my fellow citizens. They’ve decided to declare fealty to something else. Not America.
Paul in KY
We should never be tied (in a bi-lateral manner) with Ukraine (coming to each other’s aid when attacked). If they join NATO, then fine.
If we are attacked, Ukraine can’t do much for us & we can be brought into open war against Russia, if Putin or his successor attacked them again.
Mike in NC
The blue cop flags are fascist flags, and they make me want to puke. Around here they fly them outside gun stores, which tells you all you need to know.
wetzel
“I hope a Russian soldier got brained while you wrote this.”
I wrote in reply to this that the Russian is not my enemy, though his government is horrendous. I wrote that I think we’re called to see his humanity in Christianity, as we would hope the Lord will see our own selves, our worth, in our last breath, and take pity on him in our thoughts and maintain proper manners and deportment towards death. That’s what I’m trying to say. I think this is a general revelation, humanism, what was in the New Covenant, that we all can put away our fascisms, corrupted as we are by sin, not celebrate death, but see ourselves existentially and understand we are not here to serve the Lord’s vengeance but to love one another. The Russian soldier has been drawn up into the body of a criminal army, so they are burning with their army. Is it a righteous victory? I hope so because it is over fascism, but it’s a tragedy too. Fascism reproduces itself in the victorious who have made monsters of their enemies to accommodate the cognitive dissonance of killing them. I will lose another 10-20 points. Losing karma is like bleeding out. It’s aversive. It makes me doubt my ideas.
wetzel
“Why bother with markov generators when burn pits and ritalin does the job?”
Every fascism needs a folk death mechanism to call its own. Twentieth century innovations in fascism merged the poetical and scientific axes, so there is no symbolism like the noose necessary to establish the state monopoly on violence through spectacle. State violence becomes the premise in totalitarian forms of government where the symbolic act is instead disappearance.
wetzel
My trouble interpreting all the karma I’m losing tells me you can’t take loss of karma as a sign of anything.
My usage of the latinate subsets of language inculcated into me in educational opportunities make me alien. Cyne, kin, kindness, cynedom, kingdom, cynednesse if I remember the Anglo Saxon. They might not think I’m kin because of my vocabulary. The same thing happens with my South Georgia relatives. Maybe I’m annoying the redditors because my writing style is aversive like school.
wetzel
People don’t know the meaning of War is Hell. Americans now believe we are at war. We are in Hell now, the Heart of Darkness. You have to manage your deportment. It is thin ice, the moral plane in Hell. I think that is true on the home front. That is why Reddit thinks they honor Ukrainian valor by calling the Russians ‘orcs’. I never really understand J.G. Ballard’s fiction before this war. The Atrocity Exhibition. Where did those ideas come from? I never understood how his experience in WWII related to his art exactly, so I think I understand what he was trying to relate in his focus on the intersection of violence and pornography, or the pornography of violent spectacle, as the essence of fascism’s moral universe. It is tempting to think we are in that universe, but it is an illusion, a temptation.
livewyre
@wetzel: Book appreciated fwiw. It resonated. Glad someone else has an inkling of the systems and cycles involved.
This has to stop being about what “slice” wins. We can’t afford it anymore. Or we can continue to exterminate the “wrong” ones, and around it goes, or what’s left of it.
Bill Arnold
@wetzel:
Nice thoughtful essay and subsequent comments; thanks.
FWIW, Reddit has long been a tool/sandbox/playground for both state and non-state influence operators. Metafilter is now corrupted, too. Twitter is what it always has been; at least it has open APIs and timestamps so researchers (both civilian and government) can easily map out influence networks and work out the psych techniques being used.
At least you can feel the tugs/pull/emotional manipulation, both by actors with intentionality and the zeitgeists (which are in turn actively manipulated on a broader level)).
Some people are not aware that they are being emotionally manipulated, or worse, do not care. Work with the ones who are not aware – everyone needs to understand in a first-person way how these tools are used against them. Even one’s ideological enemies.
The reality is that Putin and his close associates are killing thousands of sons of Russian mothers per week, physically wounding more, and ruining many of the survivors mentally and emotionally. (All while they are inflicting even worse suffering.) This (and the other realities of Putin++’s war) needs to be communicated to Russians and especially Russian mothers in a way that breaks through their decades of constructed reality. We all live in constructed realities, but the Russian ones in particular are (and should be) currently shattering on contact with base reality.
livewyre
@wetzel: To be fair the reddit algorithm, on top of being fuzzed to avoid spamming, has been botted for ages exactly as you surmised – to bubble up fascism and disarray. Miraculous if you still find something tolerable in it.
e: iow what Bill said.
charon
@Bill Arnold:
Or not, people can be very adept at ignoring unwelcome information, especially information that they have made mistakes or been wrong about something.
wetzel
@charon: Where is the ethos for argument? Do you find it in the sylvan halls of academe? Maybe one day we’ll figure out where Heidegger went wrong. The problem is fundamental to the auctoritas as the Roman’s had it, for their fasces, the bundle of rods which are their own argument. They are willing to see the subject in a Skinner Box. Decent people who are not your mother or the Coca Cola Company do not employ techniques of operant or classical conditioning on each other, not with conscious, programmatic intent. You can never defeat the fascist in technologies of discipline and control. A totalitarian government is not a moral agent. There are no mores, totems and taboos. Objectively, what actually is wrong with human cannabalism? There is some of this in the reports we keep hearing of the Russian treatment of the bodies of their battlefield fallen and the manner of their remembrance in funerary customs, which is disgraceful on a human level. The only refuge we keep seeing is the gallows humor of those who to all intents and purposes, look doomed, but there is a refuge of Russian humanism, a kind of Wild Fields spirit in terms like ‘cargo’ or ‘cannon-meat’ like a kind of fire that can’t be incinerated.
livewyre
Seem to have a couple replies stuck in moderation – never posted before, hope I haven’t fallen afoul of the filter…
wetzel
@charon: What I mean by temptation to believe we are in Hell would be to turn Newt Gingrich’s GOPAC memo back on the opposition like captured thermobaric artillery.
From WikiPedia: GOPAC wrote and distributed a memo to Republican Party legislative candidates in 1990. The memo, which came from a list drawn up by Frank Luntz, called “Language: A Key Mechanism of Control”, contained a list of “contrasting words” and “optimistic positive governing words” that Gingrich recommended for use in describing Democrats and Republicans, respectively. For example, words to use against opponents include decay, failure (fail), collapse(ing), deeper, crisis, urgent(cy), destructive, destroy, sick, pathetic, lie, radical, liberal, they/them, unionized bureaucracy, betray, consequences, limit(s), shallow, traitors, sensationalists,”compassion” is not enough; words to use in defining an opposing candidate’s own campaign and vision included share, change, opportunity, legacy, challenge, control, truth, moral, courage, reform, prosperity, crusade, movement, children, family, debate, compete, active(ly), we/us/our, candid(ly), humane, pristine, provide.
Al Franken, a comedian and later a U.S. senator from Minnesota, wrote that GOP candidates were drilled to adopt three basic techniques in debating: “Go Negative Early”; “Don’t Try to Educate”; “Never Back Off”. Minor details were relevant only to ‘demolish the opposition’.”
In the logical structure called an enthymeme, there is the unspoken premise. What view of humanity is the GOPAC memo premised on? Newt Gingrich was an American history professor. Wast Newt Gingrich a Soviet spy? Is this type of propaganda weapon effective? Should Democrats use the GOPAC list ourselves? If we are disciplined about it, the effect will be priming, assimilation and accommodation, cognitive restructuring, whatever the functional basis of the current attitudes of the American people. We just don’t do that. The Democratic Party has somehow managed to keep faith in the truth value of language in the sense of communication being the essence. It is always a disadvantage.
Adam L Silverman
@livewyre: I was in a Zoom meeting, you are now free to comment around the cabin.
Adam L Silverman
@wetzel: I think it’s more likely that no one under the age of 70 knows what deportment means.
Adam L Silverman
@wetzel: Gingrich was a polemicist with a PhD in history and an acute case of megalomania, which is why no one would grant him tenure. This led him to make the jump to politics where his behavior and ambition were rewarded.
wetzel
@Adam L Silverman: I got a C minus in Deportment in second grade. I bit some kid on the ass who sat on my face on the playground.
livewyre
@wetzel: That’s a thought. I’m inclined to think that a lot of it is us trying to accomplish a different kind of thing. Not to condition, but to sample. Opinions seem to vary about whether that is desirable, can work in general, or can emerge without the help of such tactics to bring it to prominence (assuming that doesn’t kill it before it cracks its shell). Or, maybe, whether there’s an entirely different field of play on which it’s not a disadvantage at all.
wetzel
A lot of it might just be kids playing online together, reflecting the war into the video game world. Video games seem like the only place an American teenager can go to get consistent positive feedback without fear of failure or stakes involved. Here they have a video game in real life, and the cause is just, but here I am coming through like Mom knocking on the door. I’m an just not going to get their attention with my old man words. I am intruding on their socializing. I am not welcome because I do not recognize it is all a kind of play, which they understand. That is the view which will keep me from troubling over this! Back to my easy chair!
the pollyanna from hell
@wetzel: My son was eleven when he described himself as a psychopath. “More like Peter than Ender.” I spent the next 8 or ten years teaching him ethics from a totally amoral point of view. Then he found himself protesting Cheney’s war 24/7 on campus. “I know you did something to make me feel this idealism.” By giving him freedom I showed him the power of compassion, a power he could use for his own purposes.
wetzel
@the pollyanna from hell: You got lucky. Mine stayed a psychopath!!! He’s in the 82nd Airborne Division!!! I told him:
Blow up your TV
Throw away your paper
Go to the country
Build you a home
Plant a little garden
Eat a lot of peaches
Try an’ find Jesus on your own
But he’s his own man! Maybe something stuck. I think parents have enough trouble raising themselves, to tell you the truth, to do much good most of the time. You can just to try to help them get efficacy on things. In moral development, you’re not really the teacher, except by example anyway, so it’s better he figure things out on his own!!!! There are always better models than yourself for your kids. I wish I had understood that better. They’ll find their own teachers and the world beyond teachers all by themselves if they get positive feedback in the experience of learning and doing things. That’s a lot harder to facilitate for kids today than fifty years ago in many ways.
the pollyanna from hell
@wetzel: I was lucky, yes, and had plenty of help. Just meant that the young folks online are not hopeless.
wetzel
@livewyre: Every time I re-read your comment, I am convinced of its genius. You can get disappointed with a town because it only appears to be people going this way and that doing different things. Modern life is too much a design anyway. You can’t fix anything. I don’t know if you can even recognize fascist ideology analytically.
There need to be better trait signifiers, like neurological sign your own society is becoming fascist, surveys we could take. Maybe a society is fascist when it handles bodies as cargo, and burial rites are absent, but then that reminded me of that Washington Post story from the other day. How many COVID victims’ are sitting cremated in a can in a box? Another American failure. 300,000? It gets in on us all, like a delusion of reference or disordered thinking, for a human life to have no meaning at all, so that is consistent with a fascist worldview in which language could be a mechanism of control.
In Aztec ceremony at least the priests believed the blood from the still beating hearts was magical. Flowing down the face of temple, it powered the sun!!! The fascist doesn’t need any of that. They don’t need any religion. It is equally satisfactory whether the executioner believes it or not. You can see fascism in the particular treatment of human remains as if they were devoid of symbolic meaning. It may be more or less criminally wasteful of fuel, whether the battalion tactical group is able to retrieve their dead comrades. A family with a failing business and kids in college cannot have marriage nuptials or dignified burial. I don’t think fascism describes slavery which lacked those things. It is a difficult problem to figure out if your own society is fascist because you are looking from inside the navel of its own dream about itself. Fascism is scientific and programmatic. You don’t want to say it is God-less, but it is anti-sacred.
the pollyanna from hell
@wetzel: “You don’t want to say it is God-less, but it is anti-sacred.”
I disagree. Even Buddhism can be twisted for fascist ends. I would look for clues in material inhumanity more than metaphysics, with the exception that my own fascist tendencies might show up in my own metaphysics. For anyone else, their private metaphors connect with behavior in a way not totally random, but randomized beyond simple connection.
livewyre
@wetzel: Late reply, but might mean something: I have an idea of how to detect that which underlies fascism and gives it motion – what we all have that makes us susceptible. A mistake, passed along by norms, parents resorting to what they were raised doing, as well as all the media that passively affirm it. In a word, attribution.
We’re conditioned to think that fascism comes from fascists, that racism comes from racists, that crime comes from criminals; in each case, a kind of person. That there’s something about Those People which not only makes them that way in the first place but spills over onto us. That there’s an original essence of badness that some might just have more of than others. In other words, we assign causation to soul rather than system, even without realizing we’re doing it. Ending the search at who did it, rather than how it happened.
Attributing badness to individuals – or maybe attributing anything at all – could be the source of badness itself, the self-replicating mistake. It’s how I think propaganda works in general (and how to tell it’s happening, no matter who does it or why – beware attribution!). But it’s a hard thing to shake off for the same reason. It’s carried in norms; ridiculous or egregious not to do. That’s the tricky part.
wetzel
@the pollyanna from hell: I think I am using ‘sacred’ in an anthropological way . I think we are saying the same thing in how to distinguish material inhumanity in fascism. People think the sacred is some kind of symbolic view of yourself and your behaviors projected into some mythological playground. That’s exactly what it is. That is also the description of human consciousness. The meaning of your own death is purely symbolic. It is symbolic meaning because scientific meanings are reproducible, while the individual is not. The individual is unique. Human dignity has its own sacred character, which is a kind of play in how we are a metaphor for ourselves, our good name. The meaning is sacred because to understand it you would have to understand the meaning of Being. We see ourselves that way and understand we have rights and dignity.
wetzel
@wetzel: This all sounds like some kind of argument, but none of this makes much sense. I think people understand this better when somebody loves them or when they lose someone they love.
wetzel
@livewyre: Attribution is powerful. Sociologists tell you there is a fundamental attribution error, but that still doesn’t help you figure out what happened existentially. For my part, it feels like a narcotic to give myself excuses. It feels that way to sociologists too, and when they do it for themselves, they call that self-serving bias!
I feel I am being irresponsible, why, then, as a favor for you, I will give you a situational attribution too. It was him. It was very confusing, but now we have found a scapegoat! It was the devil. We stab it with our steely knives; kill the beast, and the system returns to order.
For this to happen is not fascist per se. Every society has forms of sacrificial ritual. Democratic societies self-consciously produce electoral candidates you can vote down ritualistically, a mythopoesis to form our symbolic sovereign, ‘the office of the President’. Elections are like Easter. I don’t know how to even begin to justify an argument like that.
Fascist governments, on the other hand, conduct human sacrifice to demonstrate the power of the state over docile bodies. The character of the Revolutionary moments can easily turn fascist, so it was lucky George Washington had been inculcated with a symbolic view of the dignity of white men, anyway, that he would let himself be judged by them. He allowed it to become a proper ritual, and it became solemn.
wetzel
@the pollyanna from hell:
“with the exception that my own fascist tendencies might show up in my own metaphysics”
‘Elections are like Easter’ has a bad conscience, so I think maybe there are a hundred better analogies. I bet there are a half dozen Spring rituals in the Golden Bough. We could situate the same argument, having the Athenians blanket their city in flowers. But now we are puffing up about ‘The West’ like a proud rooster. It’s much better to be quaker about your own religion when it comes to politics. History is not conscious, although who am I to say the iterative automata of social forms of symbolic mimesis are not computationally sufficient to be conscious. Maybe so! There have been many theories treating ‘the social’ as an unconscious. When two people are talking to each other, they share consciousness like Vulcan mind-meld.
There are true statements that cannot be justified, at least in math, according to Godel, so this aspect of truth can be weaponized by the fascists to end argument, to apply social isolation to those unwilling to affirm public truths, but true justifications for authority are supported by evidence or rational argument within democratic societies. That is a norm if communication is the point of talking. I don’t even think I can qualify my own religion as ‘belief’ but more like something I’ll always be wrestling with.
Maybe Ukraine will have rituals recognizing that the sacrifices of their fallen dead were not in vain, the elections of a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. It will not perish from the earth. Is it a tragedy? It is a new birth of freedom! None of this has any definable existence. The ‘nation of Ukraine’ doesn’t even exist as this or that ‘people’. They may even be more mixed up, in that sense of themselves, even than Americans.
@the pollyanna from hell: