Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. For whatever reason, the English subtitles haven’t been added. English transcript, with my emphasis, after the jump:
Ukrainians!
Unbreakable people of our country!
We have a series of important news – clearly positive for our defense.
First. The House of Representatives of the United States Congress voted for a new and significant package of support for our state and global democracy. Almost $ 40 billion. A second vote will be held soon in the US Senate. This decision will then be signed by President Biden and will take effect.
I am grateful to the people of America and to all our friends in Congress and Administration for their support.
What exactly is positive? These funds will be used as quickly as possible and without bureaucracy to strengthen Ukraine’s defense. First of all, it is weapons and ammunition for us, equipment. But not only that. It is also a support for the investigation of war crimes of the Russian Federation, the occupiers, support for diplomatic work and more.
The second decision is important and even historic. This is an update of America’s famous Lend-Lease program. People who remember history well know that Lend-Lease was one of the key preconditions for the Allied victory in World War II. Lend-Lease assistance from the United States to the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union has dramatically changed the balance of power in Europe. Europeans then received a wide range of products under Lend-Lease – from aircraft to trucks, from aviation fuel to communication means. By the way, American radio stations and other things provided under Lend-Lease worked for the Soviet people long after the war. For decades. Hitler’s Germany, even with all the resources in the occupied territories, could do nothing to counter this potential of the Allies on the basis of American productive capacities.
And it is no coincidence that the new Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act was signed on May 9. I am personally grateful to President Biden for this support, for this decision and for such symbolism.
Because we are now defending freedom and the right to life for all free nations in the war against tyranny, which poses no less of a threat to Europe than it did 80 years ago.
Simply put, Lend-Lease is a scheme to give us everything we need for defense. Although formally it is like a loan, in fact it is so profitable that it is incorrect to call it a loan.
Firstly, we will have access to modern weapons, ammunition, equipment, and we do not need to look for options to pay for it all.
Secondly, now the President of the United States will not have to agree with Congress on the assistance he provides. This will speed up the delivery.
And there is one more thing that should be said separately. Ukraine is constantly discussing security guarantees for itself with our friends in a very substantive way. The G7 meeting on May 8, in which our state took part for the first time at the level of leaders, was first and foremost about that. We are negotiating with the world’s leading nations to give Ukraine confidence in security for decades to come.
This is the first time in the history of our state when it is possible to fix such guarantees. Not something in the memorandum, not some declarative desire for some kind of course, but specific guarantees. Not only legally significant, but also spelled out so that it is clear: what exactly, who exactly and how exactly guarantees us. God willing.
Of course, all these things will not work in one or several days. But I am sure that this May will be of special significance in Ukrainian history.
Yes, Russian troops are still on our land. Those outcasts whom the Russian state has found for itself as collaborators make statements of cosmic scale and cosmic stupidity, as their level was characterized in “Heart of a Dog”. But no matter what the occupiers do, it doesn’t mean anything. They stand no chance. I am confident that we will liberate our land and people. By the way, today in communication with students of French universities I felt such confidence in their questions. And with new support from the United States, with Lend-Lease, with all the help we get from the UK and the European Union, from Canada, Japan, Australia – without exaggeration, from the whole free world – it will be easier for us.
I also spoke today with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. On defense assistance to Ukraine, energy cooperation and new sanctions. New – against Russia. Step by step, we are doing everything to make the aggressor most hurt by aggression.
However, speaking about the help of partners, we must not forget that victory is gained directly by Ukrainians who are fighting. By all who beat the enemy and strengthen the defense.
Just yesterday, 404 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were awarded state awards.
The title of Hero of Ukraine (posthumously) was awarded to Colonel Ihor Bedzay, Chief of the Aviation Security Service – Senior Inspector-Pilot of the Naval Command. In total, more than 13,000 of our servicemen received state awards during the full-scale war.
This definitely characterizes the courage of all our defenders.
I am grateful to each and every one of them! Very grateful.
Eternal glory to all who fight for freedom!
Eternal memory to all who gave their lives for us, for everyone. For Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
⚡️ Zelensky: War will be over when Ukraine gets all of its territories back.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that his desire to continue negotiations is decreasing daily after seeing evidence of massacres and atrocities that the Russians have committed across the country.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 11, 2022
Ukrayinska Pravda reports how President Zelenskyy evolving understanding of negotiations with Russia:
The peace talks with Russia are the story of how Ukraine has gone from despair to realising its own strength and its circle of true allies over 70 days of full-scale war.
“If on the first day of the war we had been allowed to sign a version of the peace agreement like the one we have now, we would have done it without a second thought. But now the agreement seems too much of a compromise for our side”, a member of President Zelenskyy’s inner circle shared strictly off the record in a conversation with Ukrainska Pravda.
Generally speaking, Ukraine’s readiness for some form of tactical surrender in the early hours of the attack has given way to the first attempts to outline Russia’s future defeat.
It is obvious that public recognition of such scenarios would be too brave a step for Zelenskyy’s team now. But in the cabinets of the President’s Office, this course of events is no longer discussed as a fantasy, but as a real thing. Or, to be more precise, a thing that Ukraine can make real.
Zelenskyy’s belief in this is compounded by two major changes in global politics.
First, the myth of the “power” of Vladimir Putin and his army is gradually being crushed in the outskirts of Irpin and Rubizhne.
Secondly, the isolationism of the West and its reluctance to really help Ukraine have been finally buried in the mass graves of Bucha, Borodianka and Mariupol.
Ukrainska Pravda found out how these two changes are affecting the course of the peace talks with Russia, who is talking to whom, and how Boris Johnson’s emergency visit changed the course of events.
72 hours to surrender
Vladimir Putin had to conquer Ukraine in 72 hours. Ukraine had only one option – to surrender.
These two simple sentences could sum up the starting point of the Russian-Ukrainian war and, accordingly, the peace talks.
For those who doubt their veracity, it should be clarified that it was our partners from the West, not the Kremlin, who reported this scenario for Kyiv and Zelenskyy.
“So you understand, Zelenskyy received the first offer to leave Ukraine and form a government in exile before the full-scale war. This offer was sincerely made to the president during the Munich conference. And they said it was better [for Zelenskyy] not to return to Ukraine”, a member of the delegation in Munich told Ukrainska Pravda in confidence.
Zelenskyy was asked to choose either Warsaw, or London, or any other place for his “residence”. To the surprise of all the partners, the president returned to Ukraine.
“I had breakfast in Ukraine this morning and I will have dinner in Ukraine“, Zelenskyy said then, shocking the audience at the meeting, perhaps no less than with his famous speech criticising the West.
The partners’ position was understandable: they knew about Putin’s preparations, they knew about his army’s plans, they knew what missions were being sent in staff envelopes to the commanders of various levels in the 120 strike battalion-tactical groups gathered around Ukraine. And they “knew” that Ukraine didn’t stand a chance.
“At first we did not know the exact plans of the Russian Federation. But when we seized the staff documents from dead Russian commanders near Kyiv, we understood everything. It was all noted there – when and where the particular group should be, and elite paratroopers had to clear the government quarter in Kyiv within 72 hours. The same 72 hours that all our partners had told us about”, one of Zelenskyy’s top “security officers” explained in a conversation with Ukrainska Pravda.
One day passed, the second day passed, and the third – and Kyiv was still standing. The woods around the capital were filled with burnt Russian armour and the corpses of soldiers – and Kyiv was still standing. The airfields of Hostomel and Vasylkiv were on fire, Russian helicopters were flying in and falling – and Kyiv was still standing.
“Eventually, on the third day, we felt, maybe even realised, that we would survive. That we do have the strength. It wasn’t until the third day that we had time to get out of the shelter for the first time“, said a top representative of the presidential team.
And just after the third day, on the morning of 27 February, Russia and Ukraine announced the start of negotiations.
“Boris Johnson”, or “Put Pressure” on Putin
The Russian side, no matter what anyone says, can read signals and was actually ready for the Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
But two things happened, after which Mykhailo Podoliak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation, had to openly admit that now was “not the time” for a meeting between the presidents.
The first thing was the revelation of the atrocities, rapes, murders, massacres, looting, indiscriminate bombings and hundreds and thousands of other war crimes committed by Russian troops in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories…
The moral gap, the gap in values, between Putin and the rest of the world is so huge that even the Kremlin doesn’t have a long enough negotiating table to cover it.
The second – much more unexpected – “obstacle” to agreements with the Russians arrived in Kyiv on 9 April.
As soon as the Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovich/Medinsky, following the outcome of Istanbul, had agreed on the structure of a future possible agreement in general terms, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared in Kyiv almost without warning.
“Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign [an agreement] with you [Ukraine], but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over”, is how one of Zelenskyy’s close associates summed up the essence of Johnson’s visit.
Behind this visit and Johnson’s words, there is much more than a simple reluctance to get involved in agreements with Russia.
Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined.
Moreover, there is a chance to “press” him. And the West wants to use it.
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on May 11, 2022
The seventy-sevenths day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian enemy continues to conduct full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.
russian enemy does not stop conducting offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone. The greatest activity of the occupiers is further observed in Slobozhansky and Donetsk directions.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, russian enemy did not take active action. Measures of engineering equipment of defence positions along the state border in Brest and Gomel oblasts are underway. Meetings involving conscripts are being held in Brest and Grodno oblasts.
The threat of missile and air strikes from the territory of the republic of belarus on the objects of Ukraine remains.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy continues to provide enhanced protection of the Ukrainian-russian border in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. In order to prevent the regrouping of our troops and their transfer to other areas, units of the Armed Forces of russian federation continue to conduct demonstrations. In the regions bordering Ukraine, the enemy is increasing the air defence system.
russian enemy did not carry out offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction. The occupying forces moved to the defence in order to slow down the pace of the offensive of our troops. In the course of successful actions of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the settlement of Pytomnyk of Kharkiv region was liberated.
In the Slovyansk direction, the main efforts of russian enemy were focused on creating conditions for the resumption of the offensive. russian enemy units continued to replenish supplies of material and technical means in order to increase offensive capabilities.
In the vast majority of the temporarily occupied territories of the Kharkiv region, in order to prevent the transfer of information about the movement of russian troops, the occupiers are suppressing the cellular network. Locals in many settlements remain without electricity and water. Entry into the territory controlled by Ukraine by the russian occupiers is prohibited.
In the Donetsk direction, the main efforts of russian enemy are focused on gaining full control over the city of Rubizhne and conducting an offensive in the direction of the village of Lyman. russian enemy is trying to hold positions on the right bank of the Siversky Donets River. Also continues preparations for the offensive in the areas of Kurakhove and Novopavlivka.
russian enemy continues to fire on the positions of Ukrainian troops. Increased the intensity of air reconnaissance with the use of UAVs.
In the Bakhmut direction, in order to prepare for the offensive, russian occupiers continue artillery shelling of the positions of our troops in the areas of the settlements of Svitlodarsk and Troyitske. russian enemy carried out assault operations in the directions of Orikhove and Toshkivka, but was unsuccessful.
In Mariupol, the main efforts of russian enemy are focused on blocking and trying to destroy our units in the area of the Azovstal plant. russian enemy continued to launch artillery and air strikes.
In the Kryvyi Rih and Mykolayiv areas, russian enemy did not conduct active hostilities, firing at our units with artillery and mortars. Conducts engineering equipment of advanced positions.
In the Black Sea and Azov sea zones, enemy naval groups perform the task of isolating combat areas and conducting reconnaissance. russian occupiers are launching missile strikes on important infrastructure in Ukraine, providing support to ground forces in the coastal area and blocking civilian shipping.
russian enemy continues to suffer losses. The enemy is disorganized and demoralized. According to available information, servicemen of certain units of the armed forces of the russian Federation performing tasks on the territory of Ukraine were informed about the impossibility of rotating until the end of the so-called “special operation”.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Artillerymen of the 17th tank brigade of the #UAarmy have opened the holiday season for ruscists. Some bathed in the Siverskyi Donets River, and some were burned by the May sun. pic.twitter.com/QsRsXmnJ65
While the Siverskyi Donets River winds its way through both Russia and Ukraine, audio intercepts of Wagner mercenaries state that the Ukrainian military pushed the Russians back across the border at the Siverskyi Donets River near the Ukrainian village of Bilohorivka.
Wagner Group confirms Ukrainian forces reached state border with Russia and destroyed a pontoon bridge over Siverskyi Donets river resulting in large vehicles losses. pic.twitter.com/JyYkVfOVnO
Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fierce battle to retake Snake Island amid fears that Russia could “dominate” part of the Black Sea if it is able to move in its missile systems, according to British intelligence.
Hours after Russia claimed to have repelled Ukrainian efforts to retake the island, the British Ministry of Defence said that fighting continued, with Ukrainian forces managing to disrupt Moscow’s attempts to expand its influence.
The sinking last month of Russia’s flagship Moskva missile cruiser left Russia’s resupply vessels with “minimum protection” against Ukraine’s drones, the MoD said in an update on Twitter.
“Ukraine has successfully struck Russian air defences and resupply vessels with Bayraktar drones,” it added.
Ukraine claimed this week to have struck a Serna-class landing craft and two Raptor-class patrol boats with Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones. They also hit two Tor surface-to-air missile systems, according to the Ukrainian news outlet Pravda.
The MoD said that Russia was “repeatedly trying to reinforce its exposed garrison located there”.
However, it added that Russia’s efforts to increase its forces on Zmiinyi Island, also known as Snake Island, offered Ukraine “more opportunities” to engage Russian troops and destroy supplies and weapons.
Radar satellite imagery pointed to two boats next to the island this morning. HI Sutton, a defence analyst, said they were “likely” to be Russian navy and, based on their size, were possibly landing craft.
He said Russia appeared “determined to hold the tiny piece of strategic real-estate”, noting that on Monday another landing craft was observed next to the island and was “likely” to be attempting to deliver another SA-15 Tor air defence system.
“Russia appears determined to keep the island, even at a high cost of troops and equipment. Its location is strategic. It can provide surveillance, and it prevents Ukraine from benefiting in the same way,” he said.
It could be important in any peace agreements and its defence could become symbolic, in the same way as the Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol. Without effective air defence, he added, the island was essentially indefensible.
The MoD that should Russia be able to strengthen its position on the island with “strategic air defence and coastal defence cruise missiles, they could dominate the northwestern Black Sea”.
Russia’s defence ministry said yesterday that it had repelled Ukrainian efforts to reclaim Snake Island in the Black Sea and had inflicted heavy losses in terms of men, vessels and aircraft in doing so.
You can clearly see that the disputed territory west and north of Kharkiv has been significantly reduced, which seems to be further indication that the Ukrainians have cleared all the way to the border north of Kharkiv.
Here’s the map from Agence France Press to provide a slightly different view:
#Ukraine has offered #Russia to exchange wounded Ukrainian soldiers who are on the territory of the #Azovstal plant in Mariupol for captured Russian soldiers "according to the standard rules for exchange of prisoners of war",said Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Irina Vereshchuk. pic.twitter.com/MQnNTi1TuH
Wedding rings from chocolate wrap… “The most beautiful…” – she writes.
— olexander scherba?? (@olex_scherba) May 11, 2022
“The marines taught me how to truly love Ukraine… And while my heart is beating, I will feel pure, unconditional and unqualified love for my Motherland.” – Commander of Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade Serhiy Volyna. #Azovstalpic.twitter.com/KyxAQTdl0I
This provides further answer to commenter Pat’s question from the other night:
⚡️Defense Ministry: Ukrainian military can't break the siege of Mariupol at the moment.
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said during a briefing on May 11 that if there were at least one opportunity to unblock Mariupol, “the country’s leadership would use it.”
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 11, 2022
he Ukrainian military says that it will take any real opportunity that presents itself to cut a path through Russia’s brutal siege of the Azovstal steelworks in the southern port city of Mariupol and create an evacuation route for the forces still holding out there. Unfortunately, Ukrainian officials say that such an operation is not viable at present given the strength of Russian defenses in the region, which would require a significant number of units to break through, incurring heavy casualties in the process.
The defenders operating from Azovstal continue to run low on ammunition and medicine, among other supplies, and the Ukrainian armed forces have conceded that their current options for directly resupplying the bastion are limited. Russian air defenses have effectively put a stop to earlier Ukrainian efforts to bring in supplies and then evacuate seriously wounded personnel via helicopter. You can read more about the current situation at Azovstal in our recent exclusive interviews with one of the Ukrainian commanders still running operations there.
Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksiy Hromov, gave an update on the situation in Mariupol as part of a broader press briefing today.
“The connection with the units of the defense forces, which heroically hold their positions, is stable and maintained,” he said, according to an official translation of his remarks contained in the Facebook post below. “Today, the deblocking operation will require the involvement of a significant number of troops, as units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are located 150-200 kilometers from Mariupol. The enemy also created an extensive system of engineering barriers and defensive lines, which will lead to significant losses from our troops.”
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly delivered ammunition, communications, and medicine to Mariupol. Such deliveries were possible until the information about the aid was disseminated,” he added. “As a result, the enemy took measures to strengthen the air defense system, which made it difficult for us to carry out such actions and led to the loss of personnel and helicopters that evacuated the wounded.”
When Ukrainian forces last attempted to fly into Mariupol is unclear. There was significant reporting back on March 31 regarding Russian forces shooting down a Ukrainian Mi-8/Mi-17 Hip-type helicopter that had been flying wounded personnel out of the city at the time, underscoring how risky the situation had already become more than a month ago.
“If there were at least one opportunity to de-blockade Mariupol by military means, it would be used by the country’s leadership,” Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Maliar said today in separate remarks. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine today are doing everything possible to make such an opportunity appear in the visible future, so that it happens as quickly as possible.”
The Ukrainian forces still inside the Azovstal complex, which is also still sheltering civilians caught up in the fighting, have repeatedly vowed to continue fighting despite near-continuous bombardments from Russian aircraft and artillery. Azovstal has a substantial underground tunnel network that has helped shield defenders from attacks.
However, Russian airstrikes and artillery fire still present very real threats to Ukrainian forces there and reportedly caused a worrying, but thankfully only temporary, loss in communication with a field hospital operating there yesterday. Medical personnel at that hospital have been tending to a growing number of wounded, including seriously injured individuals, some of whom have lost limbs in the fighting, but stocks of medicines and other critical supplies are running low.
For some reason Ukrainians keep asking Elon Musk to help them.
The commander of Ukrainian marines at Azovstal appeals to Elon Musk asking for 'a hint' that would help to save Ukrainian defenders https://t.co/07Vwg3OUYl
I’ve seen Ukrainian reporters make appeals to him on Twitter. I’ve seen other Ukrainians who are using their own names and whose identities are confirmable, if not verified on social media, make appeals to Musk to help Ukraine. At first I thought they were being sarcastic or ironic, but it would seem that Ukrainians seem to think that Musk has capabilities that he actually does not. And that he would direct them to aid the Ukrainians, which he won’t unless he can make a profit from doing so.
Kherson:
?#Russia will annex Kherson obl without even fake referendum. Local puppet govern-t will address #Putin and RU will issue a decree. What does it mean? 1) RU doesn’t feel stable on occupied areas, they can’t afford even fake referendum as in 2014. No local support at all
2) #Ukraine’s army is fighting on the borders of #Kherson obl, and after #lendlease prospect for broader counterattack is more than real. Russia tries to declare this territories as Russian before that.
3) it changes nothing for plans of UA and West. Idea to fight up to liberation of entire territory will be even more important. 4) later it will be used to justify general mobilization in RU.
In #Odesa, servicemen of the Territorial Defense Forces found ancient amphorae during fortification works. The finds date back to 4-5 centuries BC. pic.twitter.com/VpO6o6lXfQ
You may remember Anna from one of last week’s updates. Apparently, US immigration officials are not impressed or enthused:
Anna’s story is perhaps the only one I’ve ever written where every single comment was positive, including many strangers offering to host her. According to the visa application I saw, Anna’s host family in Maryland are longtime family friends & gave precise dates for her return. pic.twitter.com/sPJDLu7W9v
Here’s a World Central Kitchen update from Chernihiv:
The Russians may be gone from the areas around Chernihiv north of Kyiv, but this is what they left behind. Vasyl from the @WCKitchen team sent this report from Novosilka. Tatiana lost her parents here and now helps us distribute meals & food packs to families. #ChefsForUkraine ?? pic.twitter.com/wI8p9Q444H
A young Ukrainian girl is selling her drawings on Etsy to help support her family. The 7-year-old’s digital artwork ranges from a colorful pair of birds to a cat holding a heart-shaped Ukraine flag and it’s all available online right now.
Nils Laacks, a language coach in Canada, helped spark the idea when he was trying to figure out ways to help his friend Maxim, who lives in Ukraine. “When the war started I felt helpless and shocked like most people around the world,” Laacks wrote in an email. “I was thinking of ways to help this family. I knew that Maxim’s 7-year old niece loves to draw as he had sent me some of her drawings in the past.”
Laacks suggested that Maxim set up an Etsy page for Maria, so they can sell her drawings and raise funds to directly support their family. Maxim did just that and has already racked up 529 sales (along with plenty of glowing reviews!) of her sweet, bright drawings.
“Thank you for keeping your beautiful light shining in these dark times,” one customer wrote, who purchased a drawing of an apple tree. “May humans one day soon evolve beyond war and greed. Holding Ukraine in our hearts and wish you safety and peace.” Another added: “Wonderful – on display in my house.”
The first few hundred dollars made on Etsy helped Maria and her mom pay for a rental apartment in Ukraine, Laacks explained. Funds have also gone to support other Ukrainians in need. “Maxim was able to buy some pots and pans that the refugee center in Zhovti Vody desperately needed,” he wrote. “He is also buying some protective gear (like helmets, plate carriers, gloves, thermal visors, cameo clothing) and wax to make the camouflage tents waterproof and sends it to the territorial defense whenever he has some extra money.”
Laacks added that this Etsy store has offered an important distraction for the family.
“Maxim could be conscripted into the armed forces at any moment now,” he wrote. “The possibility of being drafted and the uncertainty of not knowing if/when your city will be bombed or attacked by the Russian forces is very stressful but last week he was just focusing on the project with Etsy, reading less news, and helping some refugees from his city.”
@Major Major Major Major: My SIL has been watching the “Servant of the People” (with English subtitles) TV show, and she got me to watch one episode. I realized from that that Zelenskyy was not the lightweight that many people had thought him- the “Servant of the People” TV show was not “ha-ha-ha” comedy, but really insightful political analysis.
@Major Major Major Major: Ok thanks. This seems really exceptional, WW2 pictures of destroyed tanks don’t show the turret off all that much, and heavens know there were a lot of really bad tank designs in that war.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Similar things happened in the Gulf War where this (now) well-known design flaw was discovered. It is even more prevalent this time because NLAW and Javelin (as well as use of artillery) are all designed to top attack and thus hit the turrets where Russian tanks store ammo due to using autoloaders. The ammo ignites and crew gets burned alive, and the turret shot puts out of the tank.
Autoloading saves 1 crew member (and space) and makes the tank lower profile/smaller/cheaper at the cost of the “jack-in-the-box effect” should the turret be hit.
This effect is unique to Russian tanks. WW2 tanks (and American ones) do not have autoloaders. Instead they use a crew member who loads the gun from ammo stored in a safe area .
Watched it years ago when it first popped up on Netflix. As I described it here, intermittently humorous.
Doubtless numerous cultural tropes and stereotypes employed for comedic purposes flew over my noggin.
10.
Medicine Man
I’m curious how these events should effect my opinions of Boris Johnson. I remain reasonably convinced that he is more than half a buffoon on a personal level; an ambitious upper-class twit with a nose for political theatre.
He must have a lot of direction from the UK security establishment and/or various Tory old guard types. I wonder if they’re all feeling a bit raw about how this state of affairs makes them look?
11.
Steeplejack
Question for the resident Russianologists: I was reading some background stuff about Russia’s May 9 anniversary and the mythologization of the Great Patriotic War. One article was illustrated with a patriotic Soviet poster blazoned with the years 1941-1945. That got me wondering: how do the Russians reconcile—or do they just completely ignore—the period from 1939 to 1941 when they were linked with Nazi Germany through the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact to divvy up choice bits of Eastern Europe?
12.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Ishiyama: This is even better. US military testing the TOW on a T-72 with various views.
@Steeplejack: In earlier editions of this posting threads, Adam pointed out that this, like the genocide of the Jews, are simply not taught in Russian history classes. Instead the Nazis are portrayed as only attempting to destroy Russia, which is why calling they have no trouble calling a country run by a Jewish president a nazi.
This oversight was always going to be a problem.
Remaking our history to ignore ugly facts is what certain elements of our country have been endevouring to do for the last few decades, probably to the same effect: create an empire.
15.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: The Soviets revised it out of their “official” history of WWII.It remains the “official” history in post-Soviet Russia.
16.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Medicine Man: There are videos of Boris is serious debates over classical history with professional historians. Unlike Trump, Boris only plays an idiot on TV. Since the guy is so into history, I think Boris sees this as his moment to set a legacy as another Churchill or at lest Marget Thacher and shake off the buffoon image before the Tories give him the boot.
Fucking everything up and then pivoting to become the man of the hour is a bit of a Tory tradition. I think BoJo lacks a handy Chamberlain to toss under the bus however.
WWII-era tanks definitely had a problem with the same kind of chain reaction causing all the ammunition to go off at once. ISTR that at least one version of the Sherman had a “wet” storage system that was supposed to ameliorate the problem of ammunition chain reactions, though it was sometimes undermined by crews keeping extra ammunition outside the special storage. In general, I think the reason you didn’t see turrets fly off as often in WWII is that the tanks had other failure points- hatches and the like- that would blow out and let the pressure escape before the turret flew off. I guess the same is not true of the modern Russian tanks.
19.
Chetan Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I remember reading someone who wrote that BoJo, unlike SFB, isn’t an idiot; but like SFB, he *is* morally incontinent.
So what do they say about 1939-41? Is it just left discreetly blank?
21.
YY_Sima Qian
It seems the Russia Army has made a bit of progress in the eastern part of the battlefield, based on the UK MOD & AFP maps, but this is certainly not shaping up to be any kind of breakthrough & encirclement operation. Almost no advance in recent days in the sectors that the Russian Army should be assaulting to surround the JFO forces. I don’t think Russia will even achieve the reduced objectives of occupying the Luhansk & Donesk Oblasts in their entirety. It is really turning into a WW I style mind numbing slog.
By forcing the Russians to withdrawal from the area surrounding Kharkiv, the Ukrainian Army should be in a position to threaten the flank & rear of the Russian forces attacking south from Izyum. However, since the very early days of war, neither side have been able make rapid advances against the other, except when the Russians withdraw to shorten their lines & consolidate their forces. With all of the heavy weaponry coming from NATO, perhaps that will change in the coming months.
I don’t think we have heard much about irregular warfare in Russian occupied territories in the east & south. There have been more curious fires & explosions in Russia. If the regular Ukrainian forces are to ultimately drive the Russian Army out of all of the occupied territories, they will need to be supported by irregular warfare behind Russian lines to soften up the grip.
From this article, apparently it’s just not discussed, not taught, and most Russians have some rationalization for why it’s no big deal. Kinda like slavery in the US, I guess. Or po-po murdering Black people (“if they’d just comply like White people do ….”)
The ‘official’ story was that the pact never existed at all, and those who maintained otherwise were guilty of the most heinous, scurrilous counter-revolutionary slander. It wasn’t until the 21st century when Russian admission of it was inserted into the record
25.
eddie blake
@terry chay: not quite. the french and the japanese use autoloaders. it’s not the autoloader, it’s where the ammo is stored FOR the autoloader and the type of ammunition the russians use for their 125mm cannon. it’s two-stage; there’s a projectile and a propellant bag. they sit on top of each other in a double-layer carousel.
once a bag goes up, you get a daisy-chain of explosions ringing the base of the turret and POP!! the turret goes flying bang zoom to the moon.
@eddie blake: Even worse, the T-72 series have charge bags scattered across the turret & the hull, exposed. Those are much more likely to blow up 1st, unless there is an extremely fast reacting fire suppression system.
Look at how much work the US military puts into making sure US solders aren’t killed. US troops are *very* expensive. It’s worth dumping an additional million or two in R&D and engineering to save those lives.
This is a reflection of the marginal cost of a soldier. Russias twice annual conscription means that cost of soldiers is next to nothing. So save your money on building the tank. The US’s marginal cost of a soldier is extremely high, so you invest in survivability, remote combat, etc.
Reminds me of that scene early in Enemy at the Gate, when the Soviet soldiers are being sent into battle against the Nazis, with one rifle for every other man. Sergeant explains the battle plan, “The man with the rifle shoots. The man without the rifle follows him. When the man with the rifle gets killed, the man following him picks up the rifle and shoots.”
34.
eddie blake
@Martin: yeah, that doesn’t make much sense. especially in light of russia’s crappy demographics. putin can’t simply throw millions of men at a problem like stalin could.
so you get a dead crew and a blown-to-fuck tank…
…and now the word is that due to the sanctions, the russian tank industry has halted production of new models and repairs on older ones.
so they can’t replace the tank, no matter how much cheaper it is than western models.
you would think making a more survivable tank would be worth a few extra quatloos spent on a better design, even if they don’t care one whit about the men inside it.
Even in WWII, they relied on the US production of tanks and other vehicles:
“In total, the U.S. deliveries to the USSR through Lend-Lease amounted to $11 billion in materials: over 400,000 jeeps and trucks; 12,000 armored vehicles (including 7,000 tanks, about 1,386[58] of which were M3 Lees and 4,102 M4 Shermans);[59] 11,400 aircraft (4,719 of which were Bell P-39 Airacobras)[60] and 1.75 million tons of food.[61]”
@eddie blake: Well, understand that much of the design of that tank dates back to the early 70s. These tanks were facing a very different threat – there was nothing like a Javelin that could almost guarantee a kill that could be cranked out in such high numbers that their entire inventory would be at risk.
Behind this I think is a few things:
Russia is facing a pretty serious technical debt. Their ability to constantly move their platforms forward is limited. They can make some technical advances, but not uniformly across their military. So they have to rely on antiquated systems to some degree.
Everything in Russia needs to be qualified by the degree of corruption that is needed to make the country operate. So who the fuck knows what might be going wrong between what the recognized need is and what is actually delivered.
To a certain degree you design to the perceived threat. I don’t think Russia is relying on their tanks to win a war with NATO. That’s probably going to be decided by nukes and/or aircraft. I’d say subs and carriers, but Russia is barely playing the sub game, and not playing the carrier game at all. So their military seems really well geared toward fighting other former Soviet states that are rolling pretty much the exact same equipment with the very same flaws. It’s only when Ukraine was able to field NATO arms that Russia really started to get rolled hard, and Russia seemed pretty convinced they’d be able to succeed in Ukraine without having to deal with NATO arms.
38.
Chief Oshkosh
The story about US Immigration denying the teen a visa seems pretty damning of that department. Might be an opportunity for Biden to jerk their chain. It’d be good politics while doing good.
39.
kalakal
@Chetan Murthy: He’s not an idiot, he is however very lazy with a lack of ability/willingness to grasp detail. He is, as you say, morally incontinent. He also seems to have very little ability to actually think things through, actually evaluating the consequences of an action/policy beyond the very immediate future is beyond him. A lot of his apparent erudition is pretty much surface level.
A letter from his classics master to his father in 1982 summed him up well
“Boris really has adopted a disgracefully cavalier attitude to his classical studies . . . Boris sometimes seems affronted when criticised for what amounts to a gross failure of responsibility (and surprised at the same time that he was not appointed Captain of the School for next half): I think he honestly believes that it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception, one who should be free of the network of obligation which binds everyone else.”
As Foreign Secretary his stupidity and callousness led to an innocent woman spending 5 years in an Iranian jail (she’s just recently been released) and he’s never accepted responsibility.
@Martin: The T-90 was developed after this flaw was revealed on the battlefield (Gulf War 1990). Russia didn’t care because they want to export T-72s so they renamed the T-72 they were developing the T-90 and pretended they fixed the problem.
41.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@eddie blake: As a completely uninformed bystander my guess is the design flaw persists because Russia is resource constrained and because they never really envisioned being in a military conflict where the flaw would be a major drawback. Then Putin started believing his own “our military is invincible” press clippings along with his own yes mens’ propaganda about Ukraine being a pushover because the population really wanted Russia to reassert control and anyway their military sucks just like the former Soviet client states they’ve pushed over in the past.
Suddenly they find themselves having bit off much more than they can chew with a tank that’s highly vulnerable. They can’t go back in time and fix the design flaw that they would maybe have fixed if they had known they’d need to have fixed it. So here they are. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, you go to war with the tanks you have, not the tanks you wish you had.
42.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I wonder if Zelenskyy’s repeated thanking of Joe Biden is a way to throw a middle finger at TFG (apparently AKA SFG – what’s SFG stand for again?), as thanks for the failed attempt to extort him into attacking Biden. Something tells me Zelenskyy, and Ukraine as a whole, will not forget or forgive the GOP for a long, long time (probably long after the GOP is reduced to ashes – this is a part of the world where thousand-year blood feuds aren’t uncommon, after all, and I don’t foresee the GOP surviving another century even if it outlives the death of the US as we know it)…
43.
bookworm1398
Adam, wondering about Ukraine announcement yesterday that it would block some of the gas flows from Russia to EU that go through Ukraine? They could have done this at any time so why now?
44.
sab
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Don’t collapse other countries economies midwinter if you want allies. Now it’s spring
Sooey. Responding to #43 not #42 . Bookworm not Bruce.
45.
Wvng
Ukrayinska Pravda72 hours report is the stuff of legend. Really, this is 300 Spartans level stuff, but winning. Zelinsky’s changed the course of history through his decision to stay.
46.
zhena gogolia
@Major Major Major Major: My colleague keeps recommending it. I can’t really watch at this point. Maybe if things take a really positive turn.
@Baud: Oh, they invented this crap. As usual, the Repugs take their clue from Russia.
50.
catfishncod
@bookworm1398: I’m not an expert like Adam, but I did see a couple days ago that a full, official EU ban on Russian oil (to take effect as the weaning process continues) was blocked by Hungary. (You think we have problems with the filibuster? Major EU decisions have to be unanimous.)
So I suspect that, seeing 26/27 agreement, Ukraine is helping the EU overcome its own structural speedbump and offset the not-so-secret neo-fascist mole.
51.
Gin & Tonic
@Chief Oshkosh: US Immigration’s professional objective is to keep people out, not to let people in.
52.
Another Scott
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Dunno about SFG, but Ruckus uses Shit For Brains for The Former Guy occasionally.
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
53.
Uncle Cosmo
@Steeplejack: [H]ow do the Russians reconcile—or do they just completely ignore—the period from 1939 to 1941 when they were linked with Nazi Germany through the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact to divvy up choice bits of Eastern Europe?
What you call “choice bits of Eastern Europe” were, to them, integral parts of Russia that had been hacked off by the Western Allies and various national groups in the settlement of the Great War.
What in 1919 became Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, most of Poland, and Bessarabia (annexed by Romania) had been part of the Tsarist Empire five years before. The Baltic states had never been independent nations**; Finland had been part of Sweden before 1809 when it was subsumed by Russia as a Grand Duchy; Poland as an independent nation had vanished from the map of Europe with the Third Partition in 1795.
To a Russian imperialist, none of these countries are legitimate. All were torn from Mother Russia’s embrace at a time when the Soviet regime was fighting for its existence and too weak to oppose the process, all (no doubt) as the victorious Allies’ punishment for the Bolsheviks’ dropping out of the War (Brest-Litovsk peace treaty with Germany, early 1918) and giving the Reich a free run in the West that came waaaaay too damn close to winning the war for the Kaiser.
Tl;dr version: from the Russian POV, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact merely allowed the USSR to reincorporate lands that had been (unjustly) taken from them in 1919.
(Would anyone be surprised if the Soviets had characterized all this as a “special military operation,” or something close? And you wonder why all these countries are nervous??)
** Technically, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania had been in a codominium with the Kingdom of Poland in the 17th-18th centuries.
54.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m reminded of Swartzkopf’s (IIRC) comment before Desert Storm – “First we’re going to cut it off; then we’re going to kill it.”. Ukraine knows that they remain in danger as long as Putin has a significant military. They won’t get this opportunity again – they must be laying the groundwork to inflict as much damage on VVP’s forces as possible.
I’m also looking forward to what the UA does with the forces that they used around Kharkiv, if they really can move enough of that force South. I think that the difference between the UA and the Russians on defense in this battlefield is that the UA prepared for years, and is resupplying, and has the nation’s entire draft-age population standing by to form up, whereas the Russians are going to have to improvise a defense against a hypothesized offensive with what they have left, as depleted and demoralized and depositioned as that is. It is even plausible that the geniuses of the Russian general staff will have not have the wit to order a breaking off the offensive to redeploy to defensible positions.
Tea leaves, as usual, but it would certainly make a very satisfying denouement to the campaign.
57.
Jinchi
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: I wonder if Zelenskyy’s repeated thanking of Joe Biden is a way to throw a middle finger at TFG
I doubt Zelensky thinks about TFG at all.
He’s been pretty smart in the international relations department. He scolds anyone who vacillates in their support, particularly if they suggest he find a way to help Putin save face. But he shows genuine gratitude for the help he does get.
58.
Jinchi
@Wvng: Zelinsky changed the course of history through his decision to stay.
Staying despite personally being Putin’s number one target absolutely changed the odds of NATO stepping in to help. His courage under threat of assassination, plus the effectiveness of the Ukrainians at holding off the Russian assault, gave NATO the confidence to support the UA at the level of a genuine army, instead of a band of resistance fighters.
59.
zhena gogolia
@Jinchi: I think he thinks about TFG. He knows he might have to deal with him again.
When Zelenskyy addressed EU ministers on Day 2 of the war from an underground bunker in Kyiv, having escaped two repelled assassination attempts by Russian teams sent after him and his family, he could say to those ministers calmly, and without the least histrionic exaggeration, “This may be the last time that you see me alive.”
The result on the political discourse at the highest levels in Europe was electrifying. That was the exact instant when Western European leaders went from foot-dragging hesitance on sanctions against Russia to hawkish outrage rivalling the US. In that moment it suddenly became possible to discuss things that had previously been considered ludicrous, such as freezing the foreign currency reserve assets of a major central bank. The first true acknowledgments of the risks that Europe was exposed to through its dependence on Russian energy were born in that instant. It isn’t often that you get to identify hinge-moments in history, especially while the history is still scrolling out as journalism, but that was very definitely one of them.
Zelenskyy is just one of those very unusual figures. A statesman, in the right place, at the right time, with outstanding resources of moral courage exactly when that was what was precisely the quality that was needed. The Ukrainians were very lucky to have him, and so were we.
61.
Sloane Ranger
@Medicine Man: Boris Johnson is ruthless, amoral and of above average intelligence, but, he is also lazy and incapable of long term planning. He makes up for this by being good at seizing opportunities. He plays the buffoon to hide his ruthlessness, immorality and intelligence because only in England is the phrase “He’s too smart for his own good.” an insult.
I am convinced that our PM sees being Ukraine’s best buddy as a useful diversion from his numerous failures on the domestic front, from Brexit, through COVID and Partygate to the cost of living crisis. Everywhere you go in the UK you will see Ukrainian flags flying (and we are a nation that doesn’t usually fly flags, even our own). Over here it doesn’t matter what Party you vote for, everyone supports Ukraine.
Comments are closed.
Share this ArticleLike this article? Email it to a friend!
Major Major Major Major
Thanks as always, Adam.
Has anybody watched Zelenskyy’s old tv show? I might check it out.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Is it my imagination or the number of tanks with their turrets blown clean off unusually high in this war?
Major Major Major Major
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: apparently the Russian tanks store their ammunition in a way that makes it especially likely.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/30/russian-tank-turret-blast-jack-in-the-box/
Andrya
@Major Major Major Major: My SIL has been watching the “Servant of the People” (with English subtitles) TV show, and she got me to watch one episode. I realized from that that Zelenskyy was not the lightweight that many people had thought him- the “Servant of the People” TV show was not “ha-ha-ha” comedy, but really insightful political analysis.
Inventor
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: The UA call the turrets “lollipops”.
Ishiyama
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Possibly you are referring to this?
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russias_t_72b3_turret_toss_world_record_100m_up_in_the_sky_video-2885.html
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Major Major Major Major: Ok thanks. This seems really exceptional, WW2 pictures of destroyed tanks don’t show the turret off all that much, and heavens know there were a lot of really bad tank designs in that war.
terry chay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Similar things happened in the Gulf War where this (now) well-known design flaw was discovered. It is even more prevalent this time because NLAW and Javelin (as well as use of artillery) are all designed to top attack and thus hit the turrets where Russian tanks store ammo due to using autoloaders. The ammo ignites and crew gets burned alive, and the turret shot puts out of the tank.
Autoloading saves 1 crew member (and space) and makes the tank lower profile/smaller/cheaper at the cost of the “jack-in-the-box effect” should the turret be hit.
This effect is unique to Russian tanks. WW2 tanks (and American ones) do not have autoloaders. Instead they use a crew member who loads the gun from ammo stored in a safe area .
NotMax
@Major Major Major Major
Watched it years ago when it first popped up on Netflix. As I described it here, intermittently humorous.
Doubtless numerous cultural tropes and stereotypes employed for comedic purposes flew over my noggin.
Medicine Man
I’m curious how these events should effect my opinions of Boris Johnson. I remain reasonably convinced that he is more than half a buffoon on a personal level; an ambitious upper-class twit with a nose for political theatre.
He must have a lot of direction from the UK security establishment and/or various Tory old guard types. I wonder if they’re all feeling a bit raw about how this state of affairs makes them look?
Steeplejack
Question for the resident Russianologists: I was reading some background stuff about Russia’s May 9 anniversary and the mythologization of the Great Patriotic War. One article was illustrated with a patriotic Soviet poster blazoned with the years 1941-1945. That got me wondering: how do the Russians reconcile—or do they just completely ignore—the period from 1939 to 1941 when they were linked with Nazi Germany through the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact to divvy up choice bits of Eastern Europe?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Ishiyama: This is even better. US military testing the TOW on a T-72 with various views.
https://youtu.be/E1VWPOpYbQI
So, apparently T-72 just do that.
Calouste
@Steeplejack: Where do you think George Orwell got “ We’ve always been at war with East Asia” from?
terry chay
@Steeplejack: In earlier editions of this posting threads, Adam pointed out that this, like the genocide of the Jews, are simply not taught in Russian history classes. Instead the Nazis are portrayed as only attempting to destroy Russia, which is why calling they have no trouble calling a country run by a Jewish president a nazi.
This oversight was always going to be a problem.
Remaking our history to ignore ugly facts is what certain elements of our country have been endevouring to do for the last few decades, probably to the same effect: create an empire.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: The Soviets revised it out of their “official” history of WWII. It remains the “official” history in post-Soviet Russia.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Medicine Man: There are videos of Boris is serious debates over classical history with professional historians. Unlike Trump, Boris only plays an idiot on TV. Since the guy is so into history, I think Boris sees this as his moment to set a legacy as another Churchill or at lest Marget Thacher and shake off the buffoon image before the Tories give him the boot.
Medicine Man
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: That makes sense.
Fucking everything up and then pivoting to become the man of the hour is a bit of a Tory tradition. I think BoJo lacks a handy Chamberlain to toss under the bus however.
Roger Moore
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
WWII-era tanks definitely had a problem with the same kind of chain reaction causing all the ammunition to go off at once. ISTR that at least one version of the Sherman had a “wet” storage system that was supposed to ameliorate the problem of ammunition chain reactions, though it was sometimes undermined by crews keeping extra ammunition outside the special storage. In general, I think the reason you didn’t see turrets fly off as often in WWII is that the tanks had other failure points- hatches and the like- that would blow out and let the pressure escape before the turret flew off. I guess the same is not true of the modern Russian tanks.
Chetan Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I remember reading someone who wrote that BoJo, unlike SFB, isn’t an idiot; but like SFB, he *is* morally incontinent.
Steeplejack
@terry chay, @Adam L Silverman:
So what do they say about 1939-41? Is it just left discreetly blank?
YY_Sima Qian
It seems the Russia Army has made a bit of progress in the eastern part of the battlefield, based on the UK MOD & AFP maps, but this is certainly not shaping up to be any kind of breakthrough & encirclement operation. Almost no advance in recent days in the sectors that the Russian Army should be assaulting to surround the JFO forces. I don’t think Russia will even achieve the reduced objectives of occupying the Luhansk & Donesk Oblasts in their entirety. It is really turning into a WW I style mind numbing slog.
By forcing the Russians to withdrawal from the area surrounding Kharkiv, the Ukrainian Army should be in a position to threaten the flank & rear of the Russian forces attacking south from Izyum. However, since the very early days of war, neither side have been able make rapid advances against the other, except when the Russians withdraw to shorten their lines & consolidate their forces. With all of the heavy weaponry coming from NATO, perhaps that will change in the coming months.
I don’t think we have heard much about irregular warfare in Russian occupied territories in the east & south. There have been more curious fires & explosions in Russia. If the regular Ukrainian forces are to ultimately drive the Russian Army out of all of the occupied territories, they will need to be supported by irregular warfare behind Russian lines to soften up the grip.
Chetan Murthy
@Steeplejack: https://www.rferl.org/a/molotov-ribbentrop-what-do-russians-know-of-key-wwii-pact/30123950.html#:~:text=The%20pact%20brought%20devastation%20to,the%20war's%20end%20in%201945.
From this article, apparently it’s just not discussed, not taught, and most Russians have some rationalization for why it’s no big deal. Kinda like slavery in the US, I guess. Or po-po murdering Black people (“if they’d just comply like White people do ….”)
Alison Rose ???
Thank you for the info about Maria’s Etsy page, just bought an adorable birb drawing.
NotMax
@Steeplejack
The ‘official’ story was that the pact never existed at all, and those who maintained otherwise were guilty of the most heinous, scurrilous counter-revolutionary slander. It wasn’t until the 21st century when Russian admission of it was inserted into the record
eddie blake
@terry chay: not quite. the french and the japanese use autoloaders. it’s not the autoloader, it’s where the ammo is stored FOR the autoloader and the type of ammunition the russians use for their 125mm cannon. it’s two-stage; there’s a projectile and a propellant bag. they sit on top of each other in a double-layer carousel.
once a bag goes up, you get a daisy-chain of explosions ringing the base of the turret and POP!! the turret goes flying bang zoom to the moon.
Steeplejack
@Chetan Murthy: Thanks.
YY_Sima Qian
@eddie blake: Even worse, the T-72 series have charge bags scattered across the turret & the hull, exposed. Those are much more likely to blow up 1st, unless there is an extremely fast reacting fire suppression system.
Steeplejack
@Chetan Murthy:
From that article, looks like The Devils’ Alliance: Hitler’s Pact with Stalin, 1939-1941, by Roger Moorhouse, might be an interesting read.
eddie blake
@YY_Sima Qian: yup. they really didn’t think that through.
and even worse worse, iirc, they use the same type of design in the t-80 and 90 series as well.
guachi
Zelenskyy’s description of lend-lease and the effect it will have is the most unabashedly positive I’ve seen him in any of the daily updates.
oldster
@guachi:
Lend-lease plus Soviet grunts = defeat of Nazis in WWII.
Lend-lease plus Ukrainian grunts = defeat of Nazis in Ukraine.
To paraphrase Woody Guthrie, “this machine kills fascists”.
Martin
@eddie blake: They thought it through just fine.
Look at how much work the US military puts into making sure US solders aren’t killed. US troops are *very* expensive. It’s worth dumping an additional million or two in R&D and engineering to save those lives.
This is a reflection of the marginal cost of a soldier. Russias twice annual conscription means that cost of soldiers is next to nothing. So save your money on building the tank. The US’s marginal cost of a soldier is extremely high, so you invest in survivability, remote combat, etc.
JoyceH
@Martin:
Reminds me of that scene early in Enemy at the Gate, when the Soviet soldiers are being sent into battle against the Nazis, with one rifle for every other man. Sergeant explains the battle plan, “The man with the rifle shoots. The man without the rifle follows him. When the man with the rifle gets killed, the man following him picks up the rifle and shoots.”
eddie blake
@Martin: yeah, that doesn’t make much sense. especially in light of russia’s crappy demographics. putin can’t simply throw millions of men at a problem like stalin could.
so you get a dead crew and a blown-to-fuck tank…
…and now the word is that due to the sanctions, the russian tank industry has halted production of new models and repairs on older ones.
so they can’t replace the tank, no matter how much cheaper it is than western models.
you would think making a more survivable tank would be worth a few extra quatloos spent on a better design, even if they don’t care one whit about the men inside it.
oldster
@eddie blake:
Even in WWII, they relied on the US production of tanks and other vehicles:
“In total, the U.S. deliveries to the USSR through Lend-Lease amounted to $11 billion in materials: over 400,000 jeeps and trucks; 12,000 armored vehicles (including 7,000 tanks, about 1,386[58] of which were M3 Lees and 4,102 M4 Shermans);[59] 11,400 aircraft (4,719 of which were Bell P-39 Airacobras)[60] and 1.75 million tons of food.[61]”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease
That’s why I am afraid of Xi Jin Ping: he understands that the industrial base rules all.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: Pretty much.
Martin
@eddie blake: Well, understand that much of the design of that tank dates back to the early 70s. These tanks were facing a very different threat – there was nothing like a Javelin that could almost guarantee a kill that could be cranked out in such high numbers that their entire inventory would be at risk.
Behind this I think is a few things:
Chief Oshkosh
The story about US Immigration denying the teen a visa seems pretty damning of that department. Might be an opportunity for Biden to jerk their chain. It’d be good politics while doing good.
kalakal
@Chetan Murthy: He’s not an idiot, he is however very lazy with a lack of ability/willingness to grasp detail. He is, as you say, morally incontinent. He also seems to have very little ability to actually think things through, actually evaluating the consequences of an action/policy beyond the very immediate future is beyond him. A lot of his apparent erudition is pretty much surface level.
A letter from his classics master to his father in 1982 summed him up well
As Foreign Secretary his stupidity and callousness led to an innocent woman spending 5 years in an Iranian jail (she’s just recently been released) and he’s never accepted responsibility.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/boris-johnson-blunder-risks-five-more-years-in-prison-for-britishiranian-woman
A B- mind with a F moral character.
terry chay
@Martin: The T-90 was developed after this flaw was revealed on the battlefield (Gulf War 1990). Russia didn’t care because they want to export T-72s so they renamed the T-72 they were developing the T-90 and pretended they fixed the problem.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@eddie blake: As a completely uninformed bystander my guess is the design flaw persists because Russia is resource constrained and because they never really envisioned being in a military conflict where the flaw would be a major drawback. Then Putin started believing his own “our military is invincible” press clippings along with his own yes mens’ propaganda about Ukraine being a pushover because the population really wanted Russia to reassert control and anyway their military sucks just like the former Soviet client states they’ve pushed over in the past.
Suddenly they find themselves having bit off much more than they can chew with a tank that’s highly vulnerable. They can’t go back in time and fix the design flaw that they would maybe have fixed if they had known they’d need to have fixed it. So here they are. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, you go to war with the tanks you have, not the tanks you wish you had.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
I wonder if Zelenskyy’s repeated thanking of Joe Biden is a way to throw a middle finger at TFG (apparently AKA SFG – what’s SFG stand for again?), as thanks for the failed attempt to extort him into attacking Biden. Something tells me Zelenskyy, and Ukraine as a whole, will not forget or forgive the GOP for a long, long time (probably long after the GOP is reduced to ashes – this is a part of the world where thousand-year blood feuds aren’t uncommon, after all, and I don’t foresee the GOP surviving another century even if it outlives the death of the US as we know it)…
bookworm1398
Adam, wondering about Ukraine announcement yesterday that it would block some of the gas flows from Russia to EU that go through Ukraine? They could have done this at any time so why now?
sab
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Don’t collapse other countries economies midwinter if you want allies. Now it’s spring
Sooey. Responding to #43 not #42 . Bookworm not Bruce.
Wvng
Ukrayinska Pravda 72 hours report is the stuff of legend. Really, this is 300 Spartans level stuff, but winning. Zelinsky’s changed the course of history through his decision to stay.
zhena gogolia
@Major Major Major Major: My colleague keeps recommending it. I can’t really watch at this point. Maybe if things take a really positive turn.
zhena gogolia
@Steeplejack: Ignore.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
How do you say CRT in Russian?
zhena gogolia
@Baud: Oh, they invented this crap. As usual, the Repugs take their clue from Russia.
catfishncod
@bookworm1398: I’m not an expert like Adam, but I did see a couple days ago that a full, official EU ban on Russian oil (to take effect as the weaning process continues) was blocked by Hungary. (You think we have problems with the filibuster? Major EU decisions have to be unanimous.)
So I suspect that, seeing 26/27 agreement, Ukraine is helping the EU overcome its own structural speedbump and offset the not-so-secret neo-fascist mole.
Gin & Tonic
@Chief Oshkosh: US Immigration’s professional objective is to keep people out, not to let people in.
Another Scott
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Dunno about SFG, but Ruckus uses Shit For Brains for The Former Guy occasionally.
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Uncle Cosmo
What you call “choice bits of Eastern Europe” were, to them, integral parts of Russia that had been hacked off by the Western Allies and various national groups in the settlement of the Great War.
What in 1919 became Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, most of Poland, and Bessarabia (annexed by Romania) had been part of the Tsarist Empire five years before. The Baltic states had never been independent nations**; Finland had been part of Sweden before 1809 when it was subsumed by Russia as a Grand Duchy; Poland as an independent nation had vanished from the map of Europe with the Third Partition in 1795.
To a Russian imperialist, none of these countries are legitimate. All were torn from Mother Russia’s embrace at a time when the Soviet regime was fighting for its existence and too weak to oppose the process, all (no doubt) as the victorious Allies’ punishment for the Bolsheviks’ dropping out of the War (Brest-Litovsk peace treaty with Germany, early 1918) and giving the Reich a free run in the West that came waaaaay too damn close to winning the war for the Kaiser.
(Would anyone be surprised if the Soviets had characterized all this as a “special military operation,” or something close? And you wonder why all these countries are nervous??)
** Technically, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania had been in a codominium with the Kingdom of Poland in the 17th-18th centuries.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m reminded of Swartzkopf’s (IIRC) comment before Desert Storm – “First we’re going to cut it off; then we’re going to kill it.”. Ukraine knows that they remain in danger as long as Putin has a significant military. They won’t get this opportunity again – they must be laying the groundwork to inflict as much damage on VVP’s forces as possible.
My guess, anyway.
Cheers,
Scott.
debbie
@Steeplejack:
Even I know the answer: They just ignore it.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
I’m also looking forward to what the UA does with the forces that they used around Kharkiv, if they really can move enough of that force South. I think that the difference between the UA and the Russians on defense in this battlefield is that the UA prepared for years, and is resupplying, and has the nation’s entire draft-age population standing by to form up, whereas the Russians are going to have to improvise a defense against a hypothesized offensive with what they have left, as depleted and demoralized and depositioned as that is. It is even plausible that the geniuses of the Russian general staff will have not have the wit to order a breaking off the offensive to redeploy to defensible positions.
Tea leaves, as usual, but it would certainly make a very satisfying denouement to the campaign.
Jinchi
I doubt Zelensky thinks about TFG at all.
He’s been pretty smart in the international relations department. He scolds anyone who vacillates in their support, particularly if they suggest he find a way to help Putin save face. But he shows genuine gratitude for the help he does get.
Jinchi
Staying despite personally being Putin’s number one target absolutely changed the odds of NATO stepping in to help. His courage under threat of assassination, plus the effectiveness of the Ukrainians at holding off the Russian assault, gave NATO the confidence to support the UA at the level of a genuine army, instead of a band of resistance fighters.
zhena gogolia
@Jinchi: I think he thinks about TFG. He knows he might have to deal with him again.
Carlo Graziani
@Jinchi: Oh, far more than that.
When Zelenskyy addressed EU ministers on Day 2 of the war from an underground bunker in Kyiv, having escaped two repelled assassination attempts by Russian teams sent after him and his family, he could say to those ministers calmly, and without the least histrionic exaggeration, “This may be the last time that you see me alive.”
The result on the political discourse at the highest levels in Europe was electrifying. That was the exact instant when Western European leaders went from foot-dragging hesitance on sanctions against Russia to hawkish outrage rivalling the US. In that moment it suddenly became possible to discuss things that had previously been considered ludicrous, such as freezing the foreign currency reserve assets of a major central bank. The first true acknowledgments of the risks that Europe was exposed to through its dependence on Russian energy were born in that instant. It isn’t often that you get to identify hinge-moments in history, especially while the history is still scrolling out as journalism, but that was very definitely one of them.
Zelenskyy is just one of those very unusual figures. A statesman, in the right place, at the right time, with outstanding resources of moral courage exactly when that was what was precisely the quality that was needed. The Ukrainians were very lucky to have him, and so were we.
Sloane Ranger
@Medicine Man: Boris Johnson is ruthless, amoral and of above average intelligence, but, he is also lazy and incapable of long term planning. He makes up for this by being good at seizing opportunities. He plays the buffoon to hide his ruthlessness, immorality and intelligence because only in England is the phrase “He’s too smart for his own good.” an insult.
I am convinced that our PM sees being Ukraine’s best buddy as a useful diversion from his numerous failures on the domestic front, from Brexit, through COVID and Partygate to the cost of living crisis. Everywhere you go in the UK you will see Ukrainian flags flying (and we are a nation that doesn’t usually fly flags, even our own). Over here it doesn’t matter what Party you vote for, everyone supports Ukraine.