US cases are still rising, 7% increase week-to-week, >146,000 confirmed yesterday, current 7-day avg 112,000+, only a small fraction of the actual infections.
Hospitalizations closing in on 30,000 https://t.co/QPRo6jaOka
UK cases & hospitalizations are starting to increase again pic.twitter.com/gpLn6bEyQM— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) June 11, 2022
… Danish social scientist Michael Bang Petersen, of Aarhus University, told me that familiarity with Covid is changing people’s attitudes. Many stopped fearing the virus once they contracted it and recovered. In Denmark, he said, studies show 80% of the population has been infected. Here in the US, a similar study showed about 60% had had Covid as of last February — before the latest wave started.
And people are taking cues from those around them. Social signals are really important, he said, so it’s very difficult to keep your guard up when others are going back to normal. Behavior can change in a cascading way. People wonder why they should bother if nobody else is. “That’s straight out of basic psychology of collective action,” said Bang Petersen…
… Osterholm added that compared with previous surges, there are relatively few deaths this time, so the death rate is getting closer to something people are used to seeing with flu. “We don’t really know for certain how to act,” Osterholm said. We’ve never been expected to change our everyday lives because of influenza. But that might all change again if the next variant is more dangerous.
Reporters at a Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Health press briefing this week wanted to know whether the pandemic was over. The answer, given by Tom Inglesby, MD, director of the Center for Health Security, was no. The other critical question was whether it still made sense to try to curb cases. Inglesby said it did — but stopped short of recommending universal masking or social distancing. He did stress ventilation, which could suppress superspreading events, as well as making sure high-quality masks are available for those who want them…
“I think people are just psychologically done with Covid,” Osterhom said. “If you look back at the 1918 experience … In 1918 and 1919, there were multiple waves, it wasn’t just 1918. And people were quite compliant with public health recommendations, limiting public gatherings, etc. By the spring of 1920 when it got just past a second year, people said, “Ah, forget it, you know, we’re going to move on.”
.@CDCgov Wastewater can be used to track #COVID19 in communities. chart on COVID Data Tracker shows how virus levels in wastewater have changed over time at wastewater sites across the United States. Over half had increasing levels in May https://t.co/SSxRzskxiU
— Global Health Observ (@GlobalPHObserv) June 11, 2022
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How to Compare COVID Deaths for Vaccinated and Unvaccinated People – Scientific Americanhttps://t.co/joFhrXc58V
— Global Health Observ (@GlobalPHObserv) June 9, 2022
These fixtures will be, as commentors have noted, destructive to textiles and other organic fixtures (wood floors & furniture). It may be that using them in institutional settings, like transit stations and hospitals, is still a valid public health measure, or at least more to the point than spraying chemicals around like cologne:
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NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
91 new cases reported by the NYSDOH.
I spent an hour (masked) at the car dealership yesterday. Keeping my fingers crossed that I didn’t catch COVID.
Another Scott
A new preprint – https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.07.495149
Recognizing that this has not been peer reviewed, it is just one study, etc., this seems important. People are making progress in understanding long Covid, but there’s a long way to go.
(via Researcher app)
Cheers,
Scott.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 1,709 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,524,727 cases. It also reported two deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,711 deaths – 0.79% of the cumulative reported total, 0.79% of resolved cases.
There were 22,712 active cases yesterday, 39 more than the day before. 956 were in hospital. 25 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 14 confirmed cases cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 1,746 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,466,304 patients recovered – 98.7% of the cumulative reported total.
1,706 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Three new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 11,171 doses of vaccine on 11th June: 645 first doses, 9,727 second doses, and 799 booster doses. The cumulative total is 71,045,931 doses administered: 28,008,557 first doses, 27,135,297 second doses, and 16,116,695 booster doses. 85.8% of the population have received their first dose, 83.1% their second dose, and 49.4% their booster dose.
Brachiator
People just don’t learn. You have people who just want to move on and other idiots, mainly conservative, who insist that there was never a real problem and just look for an excuse to continue ignoring reality.
I wonder what the best ventilation methods might be? Do we need to modify buildings and access to public spaces? I am all for more passive measures if they will help.
Mimi
I personally have not even had a cold since we started wearing masks. I’m not at all sure I won’t continue to wear a mask indoors in public spaces.
Ohio Mom
I went to the NP for my annual skin check earlier this week. The make-conversation questions I was asked included “Are you doing anything special this summer?” and “Have you had Covid?” The NP mentioned in passing that she’s had it twice.
It used to be that when I went for a health care appointment, I was barraged with questions by the receptionist before I was allowed to enter the waiting room: Have I traveled, been with someone who has Covid, have a fever, can I smell, can I taste, etc.
Now it is a casual small talk question in the exam room to fill the silences and put me as a patient at ease.
Just an anecdote but it does feel like a sea change. We’re inured. What this portends if there is another, more lethal variant isn’t encouraging.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: Oh, lord, I can imagine the antivaxxers making hay out of that one, because the vaccine gives you the spike protein (I’m guessing not in anything like the quantities throughout the circulatory system that you get from a massive infection).
Cameron
Grim Milestone is mos def going to be the protagonist of my next swords-and-sorcery novel.
smith
@Matt McIrvin: They’ve already made up so much nonsense about the vaccines I’m not sure this will make any difference.
YY_Sima Qian
On 6/11 Mainland China reported 122 new domestic confirmed (51 previously asymptomatic), 74 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
At Guangdong Province 1 domestic confirmed & 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Dongxing in Fangchenggang. There currently are 39 active domestic asymptomatic (38 at Fangchenggang & 1 at Chongzuo) cases remaining.
At Tianjin Municipality there currently are 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining.
At Shandong Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently 10 active asymptomatic (9 at Weihai & 1 at Dezhou) cases in the province.
Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region reported 78 new domestic confirmed (51 previously asymptomatic) & 8 domestic asymptomatic cases. 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 245 active domestic confirmed & 234 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
Jiuquan in Gansu Province did not report any new domestic positive cases. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city.
Hebei Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Langfang, a traced close contact of the bar cluster in Beijing & under centralized quarantine. 5 active asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 11 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. All areas in the province are now at Low Risk.
Liaoning Province reported 5 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Dandong) cases. 18 asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 28 active domestic confirmed & 104 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. 2 residential compounds at Dandong are currently at Medium Risk.
Jilin Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. 2 domestic confirmed & 9 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
Beijing Municipality reported 34 new domestic confirmed (1 previously asymptomatic, 31 mild & 3 moderate) & 31 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 62 of the new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 2 via community screening, all connected to the bar outbreak. 15 domestic confirmed & 6 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 2 sites remain at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 10 new domestic confirmed & 19 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 25 were already under centralized quarantine & 4 via community screening (at Jing’an, Minhang, Pudong & Xuhui Districts). There were 0 new deaths. 26 domestic confirmed & 183 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 192 active domestic confirmed (9 serious & 10 critical) in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 31 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
At Hubei Province there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed (mild, at Wuhan) case remaining.
At Jiangsu Province there currently are 3 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Zhejiang Province 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The province is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there.
Fujian Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, at Fuzhou, a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. There currently are 8 active domestic asymptomatic (5 at Zhangzhou & 3 at Fuzhou) cases in the province.
At Jiangxi Province there currently are 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases (10 at Yichun & 1 at Shangrao) remaining.
At Henan Province 1 domestic confirmed & 18 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 19 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Sichuan Province 1 domestic confirmed & 9 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The province is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there.
Chongqing Municipality reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a quarantine hotel worker living in “closed loop”, found via daily screening.
Yunnan Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Menglian County in Pu’er. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 12 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 6/11, Mainland China reported 12 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 67 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 57 confirmed cases recovered (10 imported), 329 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (71 imported) & 54 were reclassified as confirmed cases (2 imported), & 5,109 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 863 active confirmed cases in the country (193 imported), 21 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 2,556 active asymptomatic cases (471 imported), 2 suspect cases (imported). 112,094 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 6/11, 3,388.904M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 648K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 6/12 Hong Kong reported 814 new positive cases, 106 imported & 708 domestic (258 via RT-PCR & 450 from rapid antigen tests), 0 deaths.
On 6/12, Taiwan reported 50,657 new positive cases, 14 imported & 50,643 domestic (including 426 moderate or serious). There were 163 new deaths (ages ranging from 30+ y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 5/25 – 6/9, 151 having a range of underlying conditions, 53 fully vaccinated and boosted).
The Moar You Know
The seemingly hard wired response of human beings to difficult problems seems to be “move on”. That will likely end the species at some point in the near future.
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
This kind of thing would probably just go over their heads. Antivaxxers like to keep things stupid.
Cervantes
I’m in the process of recovering from a breakthrough infection right now. What really frosts my pumpkin is that I’ve had four shots, the most recent less than a month ago, but I still got very sick. I had myalgia in my pectoral muscles which means it hurt like hell every time I coughed, which was every 45 seconds. I’m not coughing any more but I’m incredibly tired and I got short of breath just getting dressed. I’ve had flu a few times in my life and this is worse, mostly because it takes a long time to recover. I had it last year, presumably delta, and it took me a good three or four weeks to get my full strength back. Hopefully it will be faster this time. No, I didn’t go to the hospital and I didn’t die, but you still want no part of this virus.
lowtechcyclist
The base rate ‘fallacy’ is only a fallacy if you do the wrong things with the numbers.
If vaccinated people are now 40% of Covid deaths, it doesn’t mean ‘vaccination doesn’t make a difference.’ Using the numbers that way would be fallacious.
But people are still dying of Covid at a rate of over 100,000 per year, and 40% is 40,000 Covid deaths per year of people who’ve been vaccinated. There’s nothing fallacious about saying this is a health problem in its own right, on the level of motor vehicle deaths or gun homicides.
lowtechcyclist
@Cervantes:
I’ve had flu twice that I can say for sure, and both times, it took me 3-4 weeks to get back to normal. But at least I didn’t cough every 45 seconds. And you bet I’ll continue masking up indoors among strangers as long as Covid is killing people in serious numbers.
smith
And as with gun homicides, this country has apparently decided that 100k deaths from covid is just the cost of doing business.
Soprano2
I really think it was the Omicron variant plus time that finally made people unwilling to keep taking measures like masking. I heard so many stories that started with “I did everything right and still got Covid”. That, plus realizing that even if you get all the shots you’re supposed to get you can still get it, most people said to themselves “I’m not wearing a mask and staying away from places like restaurants forever, because that sounds like the only way to make sure you never get Covid”. I’m surprised anyone is surprised how it turned out.
I still see things where I shake my head, though. We went to the hospital last night to see my brother-in-law. I saw one of the hospital personnel wearing a surgical mask under her nose! I still see people in stores who are wearing masks voluntarily wearing them like that, too. C’mon, at this point there isn’t anyone who doesn’t know that’s ineffective! Why are you even wearing it like that when you don’t have to wear it (except in the hospital, they’re still required there. I wonder if they’ll be required in the hospital from now on.)
Ohio Mom
@Soprano2: I’ve been in two medical offices recently where the receptionists had their noses sticking out of their masks.
I shrugged at the ones behind the desk at the dermotologist but I did rat out the ones at the oncologist. The oncologist! Where people with immune systems that have blasted to smithereens go regularly! (I was there for my semi-annual follow-along, this is nine years out for me).
ruidh
Corona virus today isn’t the virus of 2020. It is both much more contagious and somewhat less dangerous for people with vaccination (and boosters) or prior covid infection. It is more of an upper respiratory infection and not a deep lung infection. It can still be a serious infection for the aged and immune compromised. People can take steps to protect themselves from others with vaccines, surgical masks and avoiding crowds.
VOR
@Ohio Mom: Anyone in a medical office ought to know how to properly wear a mask, even if they are just office staff. And two years into a pandemic improper wearing seems intentional.