First, this preening Roseate Spoonbill stopped by to charm and distract. It looks less pink in pixels than it does to the eye. The overcast sky kind of washes it out.
Now, onto the parachute.
Much to our irritation, the Beltway press keeps producing “Biden should step down” and “Biden should ditch Harris” pieces. Some of these steaming-load takes are from competent pundits who aren’t always terrible (Ignatius of WaPo, for example). But I can’t recall seeing one from an experienced and successful Democratic political operative, probably because such people understand the advantage of incumbency and how foolish it would be to squander it.
Josh Marshall at TPM has written a few posts debunking these Jenga towers of specious reasoning that pop up here and there. Sometimes his readers push back. Today, while Marshall was pushing back on the push-back, he used the best analogy I’ve seen yet for the situation:
Sometimes when I write these posts I’ll hear from readers who say things like ‘Oh, so we should just keep our mouths shut? Do what the party elders say we should, right?’ But it’s really not about should or what’s right or anything like that. It’s about understanding why these things actually never happen, the party and coalitional dynamics and public opinion that lock these things in place. There’s only so much it makes sense to worry about or second guess things that aren’t changing. You might as well start trying to remember if you packed your parachute correctly once you’ve already jumped out of the plane.
Exactly so. If fretting is your jam, fret away. There’s always plenty to fret about in U.S. politics. Hell, move to Florida if you really want to develop politics-related peptic ulcers. But like Marshall says, in the presidential race, we’re out of the plane already, so there’s no point in worrying about the parachute packing.
Open thread.
Baud
Yes.
ETA: just kidding, in case someone is offended.
However, there is a time to move on from the conversation that the media wants you to have and talk about something more meaningful instead.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
I prefer red pepper jam
ETA: The parachute is actually a great metaphor. Provided, of course, the incumbent retains the ability to perform.
Our incumbent excels.
MattF
Yep. I imagine that seeing the ground rush upwards after you’ve jumped is unsettling. Worse, I suspect jumpers feel an unsettling urge to fall ever faster and meet the ground. But we’ve really done our best up to now, and now we will pull that ripcord on time.
ETA: Pretty birb.
Anoniminous
Asimov’s full quote is broadly applicable:
Omnes Omnibus
The other thing is if your parachute wasn’t packed properly or it fails, you have your reserve ‘chute. In this case, our reserve is named Kamala Harris.
I trust both ‘chutes.
Baud
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
But does he PowerPoint?
Alison Rose
Fretting is my forté, but not about Biden and Harris.
Omnes Omnibus
@MattF: It’s more of a thrill.
Josie
Pundits write about these stupid ideas because the White House is buttoned up and leak proof. They don’t want to write about policy since they would actually have to understand it in order to explain it to “normies.” Many of them are paid to churn out a certain number of words per day, week, month, whatever, and run out of things to say.
President Biden has started to speak more freely lately, and maybe he is warming up to give them something to write about. I have faith that the old pol knows what he is doing.
trollhattan
Vibrance and saturation sliders can probably recover the birb’s missing pink hues.
UncleEbeneezer
Right. Not only is this whole thing just one big bundle of ageism, racism and misogyny, but it’s also just pointless and dumb (and likely being pushed by Putin, Musk and the GOP).
To take the OP analogy further: we are all in free-fall and part of a sky-diving team, and we all need to pull our ripcords in a coordinated fashion. Screaming “did you pack your chute? Is it the right chute?” etc., repeatedly at everyone only risks them becoming too distracted to do so, and getting people killed. There is just no upside to doing so and anyone who is should be told promptly to STFU.
scav
As though most of us are in charge of flying the plane, packing the parachutes, opening the doors and choosing if and when to be pushed out.
Alison Rose
Really could do with less creepy flirtation by all the men toward the one woman on the UCL halftime show. Sigh.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Baud: I see what you did there and it has made me die a little inside.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: There’s always the stock reply…
A real conversation stopper! Might have to use it with the new wingnut neighbors!
p.a.
I thought Joe was too old. We’ve seen what the job can do to people over 8 years. Then I look at his (and team D’s) accomplishments and am glad I’m just a schmuck with a handheld digital device occasionally commenting on a top 10,000 liberal blog and not actually making decisions on this.
And FSM forbid, I think Kamala will make a good Pres even before 2029.
eclare
@Betty Cracker:
Classic.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: Bad Janet is bad.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
More economical than words.
Jeffro
One of our two parties really should be freaking out about its ‘parachute’, its backup chute, its plane, the pilots and whatever the hell is being served on the drinks cart coming down the aisle.
And it’s not the Democratic Party.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Baud: It also conveys the intended meaning with more clarity and impact than words ever could.
Roger Moore
@Josie:
Marshall made another good point, which is that this kind of talk always happens when the incumbent isn’t an obvious shoo-in for reelection. Members of their party freak out wondering if there’s something more they could do, and the media is more than happy to relay the freak-out. The rest of us need to see what’s happening and refuse to join in the collective freak-out.
UncleEbeneezer
@Betty Cracker: The lady in this video (at 18 second mark) also provides an excellent response.
trollhattan
Methuselah, the Australian lung fish has been determined to be the oldest captive fish, proving yet again that San Francisco is a failed city.
https://youtu.be/4-m1nb64OXE?feature=shared
Japan has tales of mountain creek-dwelling koi living more than a century, but that’s harder to verify as the stories are told across generations.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: Me too. I wish there were a way to make people stop talking about this, but the media won’t let them. The NYT has this going 24/7.
narya
@Betty Cracker: Bad Janet is awesome. ALL the Janets are awesome, but Bad Janet is something special. D’Arcy Carden had fun creating those characters. (How she didn’t get an Emmy for the episode when she played ALL the main four characters is beyond my comprehension.)
Also: had The Shot yesterday. Arm is a little sore, and I’m a little slower in the brain; I was gonna go for a walk, but the weather is miserable (cold, rainy), and I have absolutely no desire to overcome that barrier.
Chris Johnson
Nah. If fretting is your jam, fuck the hell off, because you are the Kremlin’s only remaining weapon at this point and none of you fretty fuckers are really authentic anymore: by now it’s nothing but Russian imperialism.
I guess people gotta make their money somewhere, but Biden and team are working on making things less desperate for all and sundry, and after all I’ve seen I have no patience for fretsters anymore. Fret away if you want to be dead to me for the foreseeable future. Or come haul on the ropes and try to fix things here at home.
UncleEbeneezer
@Roger Moore: I din’t see any Republicans doing this in 2020 or 2004. This seems to be an Our Side problem, sadly. But yes, this bullshit only persists if people take the bait and share the silly articles/tweets etc. We not to resist the urge to do so.
zhena gogolia
@Chris Johnson: At dinner the other night after the brilliant suggestion that we ditch Biden for Sherrod Brown, I said, “I guarantee you that there are no Trump supporters, not one, sitting around saying Trump is too old.” They all looked at me, mouths agape, as if they’d never thought of that. For once I was able to shut them up, if only for a nanosecond.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@zhena gogolia: 🎶And then a hero comes along….🎶
JoyceH
What irks me about these ‘Biden should step down’ thumb-suckers is how much they leave out and glide over. Biden should step down and all our problems will be solved. The unspoken assumption is that the Democratic Party would then obviously and easily rally around the younger and eminently suitable Obvious Candidate and voila, on to victory. Only… who IS that Obvious Candidate? No names are never mentioned. If any name would ever be mentioned, the majority of the party would instantly oppose it, often for quite rational reasons. If Biden stepped down today, the Democratic Party would devolve into a pack of starving wolves, and the infighting would destroy any chance of defeating a united, though deranged, Republican Party.
I get that Biden is old. I wish he were younger. Sometimes when he’s on the news, I sort of wince and feel sorry for him. You just know that ten years ago, any dream of a President Biden he may have had involved Beau at the Resolute Desk. But – he’s what we’ve got and he’s doing a great job against enormous odds. Presidents die in office, even young ones. That’s what Vice Presidents are for. A year or two of a Biden second term followed by President Harris is fine with me, and is frankly the best option I can see plausibly occurring. So that’s what I’m for.
waspuppet
@UncleEbeneezer: “I’m not going to pull my cord until you’ve all shown me that you’ve packed your parachutes to my specifications, which I won’t divulge because” (slams into ground)
FFS do I wish Biden was everything he is but also 50? Sure. I also wish he called me before every important decision. But here we are. Overall it’s a good deal.
Someone, might’ve been Josh Marshall, pointed out recently that Republicans have been in rooms with Joe Biden repeatedly. Have you heard one of them coming out saying “That guy is not right” or “He fell asleep in the middle of the meeting” or anything like that? No.
And that’s not even getting into the fact that his challenger is three (3) years younger, eats like a teenager, doesn’t exercise, and in the past month has said Biden will get us into “World War II (sic)” and twice told Tucker Carlson “I am the president.”
I guess I just got into it. But our media stars REALLY don’t want to get into it. Because the focus might turn onto the fact that they’re actively covering for the obvious mental collapse of said alternative.
PS: If you’re calling on the president not to run again when it’s just over a year before the election, you’re calling on him to resign. You may not want to think that’s what you’re doing, but you are.
Redshift
@p.a.:
That was exactly my thinking. And like most Democratic activists, I’m drawn to fresh faces with exciting big ideas (though if Biden had said “I’m going to do my best to kill Reaganomics dead,” I might have swooned right there.)
This administration has been a big wakeup call for me on the importance of experience and personal relationships for getting shit done. I still really want more diverse leadership and don’t want anyone to be told to wait just a little longer for “their turn,” but I’m very much on Team Getting Shit Done now, and still figuring out how to balance those two.
Jackie
Is there going to be a post covering Zelenskyy’s speech at the UN? He just started..
trollhattan
@narya: Yep, genius acting the entire series, but the episode where she plays everybody gets its own plinth in the Best of Teevee Hall.
Fun fact: she was once a nanny for Bill Hader so it’s doubly amusing she had a big recurring role in “Barry.” Also very good in the “A League of Their Own” reboot.
narya
@trollhattan: She also tells a very funny story about playing water polo as a teen (in the TGP podcast) and did a podcast ep about preparing for the Play Everyone episode. I didn’t see League or Barry–don’t have Amazon–but I try to keep an eye out for her.
trollhattan
@Jackie:
Is the Russian going to throw a shoe at him?
moops
Oh, the press also floats whole bunch of “better” GOP Presidential candidates every election. Those stories happen on both sides. Was a big article holding up Romney as a replacement at the top of the GOP ticket
https://www.ajc.com/politics/opinion-president-romney-might-have-had-a-ring-to-it-after-all/
Just stupidity. Some people just gotta make word count.
narya
Also: Happy Talk Like a Pirate Day, everyone!
Roger Moore
@JoyceH:
There’s a very simple rule to life: don’t give up on Plan A until you have a Plan B. This applies just as well with political candidates as anything else. Show me a replacement for Biden (or Harris) before you try to convince me to give up the candidates we already have.
PST
@zhena gogolia:
That is truly lunatic, and I say that as a huge fan of Senator Brown. In addition to the even more obvious reasons that this is a bad idea, Brown is 70 himself, and he may be the only Democrat who can hold the Ohio senate seat in 2024.
Old School
@trollhattan:
They think there’s a chance the fish is younger than how long she’s been at the aquarium?
Omnes Omnibus
@narya: Avast there, ye scurvy dogs!
Jeffro
Biden should remind folks, “if your deeply felt and touching concerns about my age have to do with the stability of the Republic…might I just encourage you to look at the other side of the aisle for a sec?”
japa21
@Omnes Omnibus: Great point, and I agree completely.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
🏆
JoyceH
Perry Bacon at the Post has a quick and easy response to the concerns about Biden’s age – “President Harris would be much better than President Trump”.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/19/biden-age-concerns-kamala-harris/
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
That’s a thing and I’m just now learning? I’m ashamed.
Chris
I mean.
The honest answer to that is “none of you are people who have been deeply pondering the many issues in the upcoming presidential race and suddenly came to the realization that Biden’s age was a very big deal. You’re concerned about Biden’s age because the media is telling you to be concerned about Biden’s age (which, like Hillary’s Emails in 2016, is something that applies to a stunning number of politicians but has never before been raised as a major news story and never will be again). You’re not an independent thinker trying to shake the party elders out of their complacency; you’re a sheep obediently bleating whatever the hell the current conventional wisdom on the op-ed page of the New York Times is. And the people writing those op-eds are not people who want the Democrats to win. So in fact, yes, please, for the love of suffering Jesus, shut the fuck up until you have something to say that isn’t just carrying water for the people who want the party to crash and burn.”
Barbara
@UncleEbeneezer: Yes, it does seem to be an our side problem. I vividly remember discussion in 2012 about the necessity of launching a primary challenge to Obama. I think most of this talk is seeded by pundits, whose ability to comprehend politics begins and ends with a horse race to report on, and their missives are usually peppered with the anonymous quotes of political professionals who definitely make a lot less money when there is no presidential primary to work on.
This is like the expert commentary on the withdrawal from Afghanistan being sourced almost entirely to people who had received large amounts of money to provide one kind of service or another in Afghanistan.
Never forget that there is definitely a slice of people for whom the opportunity costs of peace and a predetermined nominee are very large
ETA: George Bush I was primaried by Pat Buchanan, so I revise myself slightly. It does sometimes happen for Republicans, but it’s always a bad sign for being re-elected.
narya
@Omnes Omnibus: Arrrrrr!
Hungry Joe
Pundits are pissed because they’re not going to be able to dust off their “What Would a Brokered Convention Look Like?” columns.
The last brokered convention was … when? About 100 years ago? I think a couple of Presidential nominees have tossed the VP selection to the delegate scrum, but even that hasn’t happened for a long time.
eversor
@Roger Moore:
Biden v Trump is boring to them. And really it doesn’t matter who Trump’s VP is because Trump is Trump. They aren’t convicing anyone they are wish casting.
The Democrats do have more than a few break glass in case of emergency candidates, or VPs in case Biden passes in office, that are also valid for 2028. I’d say Whitmer is probably the leading option.
JoyceH
Someone on the news the other day pointed out that at this time in the election cycle of 1996, Dole was leading Clinton by nine points.
Betty Cracker
@trollhattan: I’ve been meaning to check out the League reboot — now there’s extra incentive since I know D’Arcy Carden is in it! Loved her in TGP, and I agree the episode where she played everyone deserved all the awards. She nailed the smallest subtleties.
...now I try to be amused
@Roger Moore:
I’m reminded of Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. saying FDR had “a second-class intellect but a first-class temperament.” I think President Joe is like that too. Refusing to freak out is part of a first-class temperament.
japa21
@Old School: I also noticed that. Plus 92 is supposedly 8 years older than the previous estimate, which would be 84, also younger than the amount kf time she has been at the aquarium.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@eversor: I would enjoy seeing that duo in office too much for it to be true.
moops
They get tired talking about how awful Trump is. So, for balance, they have to talk smack about the Democratic nominee. As you noted, there is nothing awful to talk about, so they harp on his age.
randy khan
I understand why we’re seeing these pieces, in part because the relentless demand for content means that sometimes people will write stuff just to fill the empty space, but it’s all so pointless, so it still irritates me.
And, particularly on the point of Harris, there is absolutely *no* reason he should drop her and there are millions of reasons (that is, the opinions of Black Democrats) why he should keep her on the ticket. The unhappiness of a bunch of white voters who undoubtedly would vote for any Black candidate except the one who’s actually running (the original version of “I’d vote for a woman, but not her”) is irrelevant. Not to mention that Vice Presidents nearly always are treated as afterthoughts at best and liabilities most of the rest of the time.
smith
Serious question: Do they talk about how awful he is? I have to admit that I try to ignore corporate media to the best of my ability, but from what bits I’ve seen, it seems like they treat his blazing pathology as if it were just a normal variation on normal politics.
...now I try to be amused
@eversor:
If media people had any sense of history it wouldn’t be boring. 2024 will be the first time an incumbent president was challenged by the predecessor he defeated since Grover Cleveland vs. Benjamin Harrison in 1892.
Matt McIrvin
@JoyceH: They usually imagine someone who is not remotely expressing interest in running. Gretchen Whitmer, Sherrod Brown, Pete Buttigieg. These are all fine people and they’re not running for President.
The exercises always seem to imagine that we can just painlessly shift to an alternate timeline with no costs in the transaction.
Alison Rose
Welp, a point against Milan at San Siro isn’t a terrible result.
luc
Back to praying!
Praying that the president doesn’t experience any major health-scare before the election. There is a very good chance that this would bring us a second Trump presidency considering the Mindy electorate.
Seems it is not allowed to admit that major risk.
trollhattan
@…now I try to be amused: Can remember when Teddy Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter who famously said, “I’ll kick his ass.”
Regrettably, that was only 1980’s first ass-kicking.
NotMax
@narya
It’s a business, matey.
:)
rekoob
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: @Betty Cracker: It’s on Amazon Prime — one season, 8 episodes. Well done, but apparently, the proposed second season has been scrapped.
Alison Rose
Here’s Zelenskyy’s speech at the UN. I’ve just started watching, but God, it’s amazing to see him standing up at that podium.
Really annoying that they keep putting the russian asshole on screen. I don’t need to see him being a rude ass little bitch.
MattF
@Matt McIrvin: Worth noting that an open Presidential nomination contest attracts a crowd of mostly unqualified wannabes. Cast an eye towards the Republican race for many examples.
JoyceH
@Alison Rose: Quite a character arc – from Paddington Bear to Winston Churchill.
zhena gogolia
@luc: Anything can happen to anyone. Any recollection of RJK (the original)? Praying never hurts, though.
trollhattan
@Old School: @japa21:
My take is the statistical margin of error is +/- 9 years and they’re just using that as part of the conversation. That the age falls outside “the currently calculated clock” implies she could be even older than the 92 the technique currently presents.
Fun stuff!
A former mayor of our fair city had a funny line about his horror at bringing a traffic engineer to public meetings. “Inevitably, somebody will ask ‘Just how many people have to die at this intersection before the city does something?’ and the engineer will answer them and provide a number.”
Betty Cracker
@luc: Nope — you’re entirely “allowed to admit that major risk.” I think many of us share it to some extent, though there’s a lot of whistling past the graveyard too.
The point is that Biden will be the nominee as long as he’s on this side of the sod. The advantages of incumbency are too great and the risks of changing horsemen mid-apocalypse too grave for Dems to do anything else.
You’re allowed to worry about it, but it’s kind of pointless. That’s what the post is about.
eversor
@…now I try to be amused:
Let me show you the issue here…
Ifmedia people hadanysenseof history it wouldn’t be boring. 2024 will be the first time an incumbent president was challenged by the predecessor he defeated since Grover Cleveland vs. Benjamin Harrison in 1892.MattF
@trollhattan: And an error estimate, if they are good at it. ‘23±10’.
Alison Rose
“Evil cannot be trusted. Ask prigozhin if one bets on putin’s promises.”
MIC DROP
Citizen Alan
@Barbara:
I would add that I’m pretty sure every incumbent President who’s faced a competitive primary has lost reelection. Bush I and Buchanan. Carter and Ted Kennedy. Humphreys (who was LBJ’s stand-in) and RFK among others. Even Gore had to beat back Bradley, which wasn’t that hard to do, but he only lost Florida by 600 votes, so we can add that to the list of causes for that perfect storm.
trollhattan
Zelensky’s closing remarks.
“Just ask Prigozhin.”
ETA beat to the punch.
Omnes Omnibus
@luc: You can admit it. You just have to admit that any alternative to Biden-Harris also has costs/risks. The majority of us calculate that the costs/risks of switching are so much higher than those is staying the course that there is no reason to even contemplate a switch.
trollhattan
@Omnes Omnibus:
Simply no obvious replacement this cycle. Everybody who matters in 2023 is positioning for ’28.
Roger Moore
@MattF:
Except the Republican race isn’t an open contest; it’s as close to a closed contest as you can get without an actual incumbent in the race. It’s 100% Trump’s race to lose, which is exactly why you have a bunch of unqualified wannabes. The people who could be serious candidates are keeping their powder dry for 2028, when Trump will be definitively out of the picture. Instead, you have a bunch of people who are hoping either to step in when Trump is knocked out by circumstances or to raise their personal profiles by temporarily stepping on the big stage.
A genuinely open contest would be like 2008, when there was no incumbent and the VP wasn’t running. Both parties had serious nomination contests that included some well-qualified candidates.
Omnes Omnibus
@trollhattan: That’s one of the costs/risks. So is giving up the fucking incumbency advantage.
Redshift
@Barbara:
For those two examples, at least, it’s also a “really I’m not racist or misogynistic” people on our side problem. (A good chunk of the “Biden is old” is “Biden is likely to die and then Harris will be in charge without the racists/misogynists getting the chance to pass judgment in a presidential election,” and not just on the wingnut side.)
A lot of them (I suspect) are like a normie friend of mine, who in 2016 wished we’d nominated an ordinary candidate instead of another barrier-breaker after Obama. On a purely practical level (especially in hindsight) they’re not wrong, since a “normal” (i.e. older straight white guy) candidate might have let the backlash die down a bit. But a “normal” candidate is always more likely to win, and if we live in fear losing the racists/misogynists on our own side and energizing the ones on the other side, then nothing will change an older straight white guy will always be the norm. (It also ignores how energizing breaking the barrier can be, and assumes that perpetually nominating “safe” candidates won’t depress turnout from our base who aren’t of the same persuasion as the current “normal.”)
wjca
If we’re going to indulge in election fantasy, how about something different?
Suppose, Trump wins the nomination. Then, before November, his age and bad health habits catch up with him and he dies.
Do his cultists still turn out — maybe believing that, if he wins, their god-king will return from the dead? Or do they decide they no longer care and sit home? And does it matter, even in the slightest, what Palin-lite type he has for a VP candidate?
Roger Moore
@Citizen Alan:
I think this is getting causation backward. It’s not the presence of a credible challenger that did the damage; it’s the weakness of the candidate that made a credible challenge possible.
FastEdD
@narya: Yarrr. Yarrdily yar. May ye Touch His Noodly Appendage. The Flying Spaghetti Monster, of course. If ye worship somthin’, may it be totally ridiculous.
Redshift
In their wankfests, are the pundits still quoting polls about what percentage of voters would prefer “someone else” to the two choices we have? I never read more than the headline of these pointless pieces any more, so I wouldn’t know, but I don’t see them being mentioned on social media any more.
That part was always particularly annoying. Anyone who has more than a goldfish-brain memory knows about early polls with an incumbent where they poll X vs. generic Republican or Democrat. Unnamed opponent always polls a lot better than whatever actual opponent arrives, because everyone can project their favorite choice onto it, but they’re not all the same. “Someone else” is exactly like that.
Jacqueline Squid Onassis
@trollhattan: I have a 36 year old fish in one of my aquariums. I hope to live long enough to see her break that record.
Matt McIrvin
@Roger Moore: Since most of the Republican party believes Trump won the 2020 election and IS the legitimate President, from their perspective he’s the incumbent.
PJ
@wjca: If Trump dies after being nominated, the party will choose someone else to run (not whoever TFG picked as VP). They’ll go for someone presentable but terrible, unlikely to be De Santis unless he somehow learns how to act like a human in the next ten months, more likely a Glenn Youngkin type. Whoever it is won’t have the support of the Trumpites, but the media will be ready to anoint them as the Good Daddy Who Will Make America Great Again. In terms of actual voters, my guess is that this Good Daddy candidate will do more poorly than Trump, because he’ll still be advocating for Republican policies like abortion bans, but won’t have the fervent MAGAites showing up to vote (because it’s all rigged).
Matt McIrvin
(Logically, they’d also think he’s term-limited, but Trump already explained why by geometric logic he deserves additional terms.)
lowtechcyclist
Actually, right after the Obama-Biden win in 2012, a reporter asked him how it felt to have run in his last campaign. I don’t have his exact reply handy, but it was basically “who says it’s my last campaign?”
AIUI, he was fully intending to run in 2016, but Beau’s death happening when it did took the wind out of his sails.
dmsilev
@Citizen Alan: Gore wasn’t an incumbent though. He was close, the VP of a 2nd-term P is the obvious successor, but it’s not the same as a P running for re-elect. Assuming Biden/Harris wins next year, I would expect Harris to run in 2028 and I would also expect that to be a contested primary.
(pick a handful of Governors and Senators, plus a couple of oddballs; that’ll be the field)
prostratedragon
Some fretting with Eddie Hazel.
UncleEbeneezer
@Barbara:
These pundits also know that there is a never-ending appetite for Dem-bashing amongst Progressives (and Centrists). This helped give Emailz (and Goldman Sachs and CorruptHillary etc.) traction in 2016, and it’s helping do the same for concerns about Biden’s age and Harris’ fitness to lead/popularity. Our side rewards this shit repeatedly too. So pundits know they will get easy attention and guaranteed clicks from Republicans AND bitter Progressives and Centrists.
Mai Naem mobile >44
I do fret that Biden isn’t out enough and TFG is taking up too much of the oxygen in the room. Harris, just like any other VP, will not get the same coverage that POTUS will. I was going to say Biden should do the late night show but ofcourse they aren’t on. He just needs to do more fluff stuff like the Today show and GMA. Maybe some friendly podcasts??? Sports related spots???
lowtechcyclist
@Old School:
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing – she’ll have been at the aquarium for 85 years in November. So +9 but at most -7.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mai Naem mobile >44: His team beat a pretty fucking good slate of Dem contenders and then beat Trump. I am betting that they have a pretty good handle on how to move forward now.
Matt McIrvin
@UncleEbeneezer: Most of my non-politics-junkie friends with progressive leanings are even now going on about how they have always been disappointed by Democrats almost as much as by Republicans. It is absolutely endemic. I think to some extent it’s generational–a lot of these people are GenX or Millennial types and are just repelled by the idea of supporting a team. It’s a sign of inauthenticity.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
I’m not the least bit disappointed in Republicans because I understand what they are and have set my expectations accordingly.
ETA: I also don’t care about anyone’s feelings. I care about their votes.
trollhattan
@Omnes Omnibus:
Seem to remember a certain amount of mewling in 2012 that Obama was “kind of boring, not a radical reformer, reminds me of my daaad.” Which explains how Willard came so very close.
Brachiator
I understand the cynical pundits, who just want to see new faces because they are bored with the current ones. But even these dopes should understand the value of being the incumbent president.
Matt McIrvin
@trollhattan: Part of Obama’s 2008 support came from people who were projecting a radicalism onto him that he didn’t have, and were then disappointed by him governing pretty much as an ordinary Democrat.
I think a lot of that came out of the anti-Iraq-War coalition and the fact that they saw Obama as their candidate and the Democratic Party as generally pro-war.
Sure Lurkalot
Hard to get consistent data but from my searches, the average age of White House advisors and cabinet members appears to be mid to upper 50’s with the added benefit that most of them are well qualified for their positions. Joe might be the decider but he relies on his staff to advise him unlike an egomaniacal 5 year old.
rikyrah
@Josie:
They resent the competence of this Administration. It is an Administration about POLICY not PERSONALITY.
You have to UNDERSTAND POLICY in order to write about it. And, that means they need to work.
Baud
There’s no open Dem primary and the GOP primary is a snooze fest because the base is addicted to the cult leader. The media is understandably sad by the waste of a presidential election season.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sure Lurkalot: People my age? We’re in trouble now.
wjca
Whether the party gets to do that rather depends on the timing. The week after the convention? Sure. A bit of a hassle reconvening the convention delegates, but doable.
On the other hand, mid-October? Rather questionable whether they can even agree on who “the party” is for the purposes of picking someone else. Let alone whether delegates “pledged to vote for Trump” (which is who are actually on the ballot**) will agree to that pick. Could see a variety of people who were never on the ballot getting electoral votes — something we haven’t seen in decades.
And, if the necessary Electoral Votes go to the deceased, the VP-elect does become President.
** Said ballots being already printed by that time.
UncleEbeneezer
@Matt McIrvin: It’s also the result of a 40 year Anti-Dem campaign from the media as well as the GOP. And it’s been very effective at convincing Progressives (especially young, especially white ones) that criticizing the Dem Party is the ultimate badge of purity. Even when they blast Republicans, they always have to add something about Democrats too. I know several people like this and they are fairly commonplace in organizing. I’ll never forget when I helped organize an event in 2017 with a bunch of people/groups on the Left and we had like five tables set up for different interests. The one that attracted the most people was for “Electoral Politics” and they were split on whether they wanted to focus on defeating Trump or on the DNC and the fact that Bernie was robbed. So while they aren’t a majority of our coalition, they are a substantial chunk, at least in the organizing world, and they spend a lot of time/energy criticizing Dems and parroting GOP anti-Dem talking points. They are part of the market that these pearl-clutching pundits write for.
sab
Groupthink really is a thing in DC. I wish it wasn’t so contagious. It’s leaking out into the hinterland now thanks to MSM.
Jay
@Matt McIrvin:
Here, cynical lefties and centerists vote ABC.
Anybody But Conservative.
It’s a Riding System here, so you hold your nose and vote Green, Liberal, NDP, Independent, which ever Candidate in your riding, has the best chance of defeating the PCP Candidate. Been doing this for 40 years now and only 4 times did my ABC vote also line up with someone I wanted in office.
But I sure as hell know I don’t want any PCP in office.
Might as well vote for Fentanyl as the PCP.
Redshift
@Matt McIrvin: I had a depressing conversation with a younger work friend a couple of weeks ago, when I felt compelled to respond to a comment about how it was too bad we had to have a candidate who was basically just a figurehead being propped up by his team, or some such. I mean, I can kind of get the “Biden is too old, my preference is someone younger,” but this was full hook-line-and-sinker Biden is completely senile and actually not in charge of anything. I was kind of gobsmacked.
A big blowup wouldn’t help, so I managed to somewhat calm “uhh, where are you getting that idea from?” After a non-specific response, I talked about how I have been in the same room with the man, and I can assure you he’s getting around on his own and speaking entirely coherently about his own ideas. I also talked about this being the most accomplished administration of my lifetime (running through a few specifics), and I’d learned to appreciate the ability to get things done, which doesn’t happen just by having good staff.
I don’t read too much into this, because this is a person who would have voted Republican in 2016 if they’d nominated Rand Paul (so not really “normie” in any sense), but he wasn’t getting any disagreement from the others of the same age in the chat. The best I could get from him is we probably “wouldn’t know until sometime in the future” whether, y’know, the person I’d seen on stage was actually a senile old man who was being entirely controlled by his handlers.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: It’s maddening because in reality, a HUGE drama is playing out — one of only two viable national parties is apparently wholly owned by a serially indicted lunatic who has already fomented political violence at scale. There’s plenty of drama! And the media gets a starring role since said lunatic routinely sets his jeering mobs on reporters. It’s epic! It’s existential! How can this be boring for anyone? I don’t get it.
Matt McIrvin
@Redshift: I recall hearing about people who literally did go “a black guy, OK, but a black guy AND then a woman? That’s too much! That’s going too far!” but they probably weren’t going to vote for the Democratic candidate anyway.
There’s a lot of bigotry-by-proxy out there, where they disguise their own misgivings as misgivings about the misgivings of other people. And the genuine hit that minority or woman candidates do take means you can call that rational.
piratedan
@narya: I’ll excuse everyone from this arduous expectation as if emulating my florid exposition should ever be an example of how one should deign to post on this, or any other, sharing of thoughts.
As you were… steady as she goes Mr. Christian
sab
@trollhattan: That fish is possibly older than my dad (who is till alive although with some dementia) and I feel old today because I am almost 70.
wjca
This is what happens when someone (in this case apparently the authors) knows just enough about statistics to be dangerous. They blindly apply a bell curve distribution to their calculated uncertainty, while ignoring the obvious constraints on the possibilities.
Maybe more science majors** should require several statistics courses to graduate. And more stilll for a graduate degree.
** As I think about it, this might be even more critical for economics majors.
Matt McIrvin
@Redshift: I saw a Facebook friend go from Ron Paul-curious to “Hillary is a monster, vote third party” to “Trump is an idiot but his idiocy will take down the corrupt American empire system, it’s the only way” to full “TRUMP MAGA 2016”.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Trump is an idiot and he would take down America.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
It’s not a boring story per se, but it is one sided. And the media must present both sides as equal.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: I’ve mentioned it before: in GWB’s second term I recall seeing another guy explain that while he knew Ron Paul would demolish American society and turn it into an impoverished fascist hellhole, if this could put a stop to aggressive global American imperialism he would almost consider it worthwhile.
I think a chunk of the pro-Trump left (and “anti-imperialist” right) was basically approaching Trump that way, as a mechanism for sabotaging the Empire from within. And Putin was actively promoting that idea.
Baud
Via reddit
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
In all honesty, if you hate America, and you’re not among the class of people whom Trump would hurt, it makes perfect sense to vote for Trump. More honest than most reasons people give.
wjca
And part of it, frankly, was flat out racism. Radicals who just assume that all blacks are necessarily very liberal or radical, too.
FastEdD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyt-B5XBCh8
Music for TLAPD from my studio in 2015
Geminid
There is more news about the Armenian enclave of Artsakh, which was attacked this morning by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s offensive was not a limited one after all, and its forces have broken through the line contact and are pushing further into the 900(?) square mile highland region.
Meanwhile in Armenia, there were large demonstrations in the capital of Yerevan, calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan because of his failure to protect Artsakh and the 120,000 Armenias living there.
I think this area is 8 time zones ahead of the US Eastern time zone, so it’s somewhere around midnight there. Al Jazeera and other news sites are following this story.
UncleEbeneezer
@Redshift: If all the great stuff this administration has done has actually been the result of a team or some genius pulling the strings from behind the curtain, I want four more years of that!! The best way to ensure that is to keep Biden and his team, in the Oval Office. It sure as hell isn’t to re-elect Trump or take an existential gamble on some theoretical, Johnny Unbeatable as the Dem candidate.
Jay
@wjca:
Naw, if TIFG dies before the election, the ReThugs will just “Weekend at Bernie’s” his taxidermied body towards the finish line. If the puppet taxidermied TIFG corpse win’s, they the ReThugs will announce after the swearing in, his heroic and tragic death saving an entire Company of Navy SEALs from hordes of ANTIFA terrorists. The Most FAUX like bimbo he selected as his VP will take office, and appoint Thunderbirds Are A Go Puppet headed serial child rapist Matt Gaetz as the new VP, and “The Power Behind The Throne”.
If the “Weekend at Bernie’s” TFIG loses, they will stuff him in a closet at Mar a Lego, hose him down with some Febreeze and Concrobium Mold spray, along side some of the still missing “Classified Documents” and trot him out again in FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE YEARS!
gvg
Instead of questioning the party leaders, they would be smarter and less sheep like if they questioned the media and who is telling them they should be worried about Biden’s age when he is so obviously doing well and we just had an obese junk food President with obvious cognitive problems that they did not attack.
The media is full of followers and way too many citizens are just as foolish.
In an ideal world we might have found a younger politician who was just as good if not better and everyone would have jumped on his bandwagon back in 2019. In this world it still worked out pretty darn well. I think we are set at President. I think we should be worrying about finding best possible candidates for all the other offices we need to defeat Republicans at.
eversor
@Redshift:
Except things have changed. The current and past party tickets have had an African American/Asian woman on the ticket. The prior two had an African American male. In all three cases they were solid wins. The three losses were twice two white men on the ticket with war heroes at the top and that didn’t work. Then we had Clinton who many people sounded the alarm couldn’t win (they were right) who ran with Tim Kaine who has all the charisma of a sack of potatoes and nobody was going to be thrilled about.
So there isn’t any evidence that running POC won’t work in the post 2000 electorate. All three tickets that failed were all dual white people. Clinton was a massive own goal and I don’t think Bill Clinton could win either if he ran today for the exact same reasons. Biden is also directly associated with the dreaded Obama and that didn’t work against him one bit. We also put the first female VP into office even though she’s a woman of color.
Millenials and Gen Z are making up more and more of the electorate and they don’t like racism or religion. And without racism or religion the GOP has nothing.
JPL
@Mai Naem mobile >44: Maybe he’ll give a speech before the UN. Surely that would get a lot of attention.
Biden could do more, but the news is giving him the Hillary treatment.
moonbat
@Redshift: Sorry if someone has already observed this. But one f the things I want to point out to those who want that sort of young diversity in leadership now is that Biden is bringing so many young, diverse and talented people into the pipeline in the short time he’s been president. All his judicial and other government appointments are creating an experienced talent pool that will help sustain this nation for a good long time if we can get rid of the Orange Stain and his ‘movement’ for good.
BarcaChicago
I posted something about this on FB and had some people ask if they could repost amongst their family/friends. Sometimes I will do this bc often people want to have a ready-made post to share. See below:
FWIW…
The corporate-owned media will keep trying to shove the “Biden’s old” narrative down our throats, while refusing to acknowledge the 3-year difference in age and clear cognitive/general health deficits of Trump. Selectively applying this “concern” confirms that it’s an insincere, bad faith argument. Corporate-owned media is no longer journalism but instead a product to be sold; Trump generates a lot more revenue than Biden, and the corporate-owned media prefer him. I would also say that corporate media represents entrenched power, and they fared better under Trump and his tax cuts etc. than under Biden. And one of the things they dislike most about Biden is that he beat Trump handily in 2020 and that gives him a big advantage in winning again in 2024. Add on the clear incumbency advantage, and we can see what they really don’t like about Biden: he can beat Trump.
Also “Biden is old/we need a primary/new VP” from ostensibly left wing pundits can be translated as “I don’t want a Black woman to potentially assume power”. We see you and see the subtext. Sexism and racism underlie this concern trolling.
zhena gogolia
@Betty Cracker: This is true. But their bosses won’t let them tell that story.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@gvg:
Kill Your TelevisionQuestion The Media Narrativeeclare
@Baud:
Hahaha…never change, Fetterman
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@BarcaChicago:
This – the media is trying to replace Biden with Trump.
Jeffro
I agree.
There are millions of facets to the bright, shining diamond that is trump’s obvious insanity.
Except…covering the one candidate’s insanity is hard to ‘both-sides’…and telling the truth automatically puts the teller “against” trump, for whom lies are like oxygen.
(they still oughta do it, I’m just sayin’…)
As for the ‘existential’ thing, I still don’t get that people don’t get that part. This is the leader of the free world, folks. The guy who can nuke a country…or your 401k…with just a few words. How can anyone know that and go, “yeah, he’s nuts…but he’s good for ratings?”
What good are ratings in a radioactive wasteland? Or in (god help us) an even deadlier pandemic?
zhena gogolia
@BarcaChicago: Very well put.
zhena gogolia
@Jeffro: I ask myself this every morning when I see that gd NYT. I guess they think they’ll be the oligarchs, not the ones in the gulag or falling out the window.
Roger Moore
@wjca:
I don’t think this is the result of statistical innumeracy. The authors have come up with a way of estimating the fish’s age based on genetics, and that estimate has some uncertainty. They are quite properly reporting what those error bars are. It’s true that the youngest possible age from their estimate is younger than the known age based on the historical record, but that doesn’t mean their error bars are wrong. It just means their estimate has a relatively large uncertainty.
Betty Cracker
Meant to update y’all on Peaches the Flamingo, a Hurricane Idalia refugee who was rescued in Tampa Bay and rehabbed at Seaside Seabird Sanctuary. The bird has been released! There’s a flock (a flamboyance!) still hanging out in the Ft. DeSoto area, so Peaches was released there.
Good luck, Peaches!
eclare
@Betty Cracker:
Yay Peaches!
Jay
@Roger Moore:
And they noted, that their methodology was calibrated to known ranges up to 100 years of age, and they are now in the process of expanding the range upwards, which will/should provide more accurate results at the upper ranges.
sab
@Geminid: Thank you for following this.
rikyrah
@UncleEbeneezer:
just think of what the Dems could do with a Dem House and Real Dem Senators in the Senate.
prostratedragon
@wjca: Thanks. Truncations are a bear, but they do matter.
sab
@rikyrah: I remember when Democrats said we would love to hire experienced people of color in higher government positions if only there were any. Obama found lots of them once he was elected. There was a network of talented people out there. Biden is following the same tradition. Old dog, new tricks. That’s one of the reasons I want Kamala Harris around for term two and three. Keep that going so it becomes firmly the norm.
ETA Ohio has a lot of really good Black people who cannot get elected to Ohio statewide office. For example Emilia Sykes’ husband, who ran for AG at one point. Well let’s just send them on to the DC job pool. Ohio’s loss, America’s gain.
Kathleen
@zhena gogolia: I wonder what steaming pile WaPooped today. I need to call and cancel my subscription.
prostratedragon
@FastEdD: Arrrrr!🙂
Redshift
@UncleEbeneezer:
Good point. I could not quite manage to suppress my own knowledge of how government works to just argue on his terms. However, there’s no question all of these people will vote for Biden over Trump, they’re just cool and dismissive about it, and they believe annoying things.
Redshift
@moonbat:
Very good point, I will keep that in mind.
wjca
Or perhaps they figure Biden will trounce Trump handily as things are going, and just want to make the campaign close enough for an interesting horserace. Because it’s hatd writing horserace stuff when it ain’t even close.
Kathleen
@UncleEbeneezer: I totally agree.
prostratedragon
@prostratedragon: I should have said censored, not truncated. It’s been a while.
prostratedragon
@Redshift: I think there might be few more salient signs of Biden’s excessive age than this.
Suzanne
@JoyceH:
Yes this. Honestly, Joey B is probably “too old”, whatever that means. I would feel more confident if he were younger. But he isn’t.
I am pragmatic here (and about most things). We almost never get the perfect scenario. We get the second- or third- or fourth-best scenario. The best scenario that is feasible and plausible is re-electing Joey B. If he can’t serve his full term, the MVP is more than capable.
I don’t lose sleep about this at all.
JoyceH
New topic because Nicole is covering the Tuberville blockade, but dammit Shumer, lock down the Senate, bring in the cots! We’re gonna vote on these promotions one by one, not just the top brass, but all of them. We’ll got for eight hours and take a one hour meal break. (Turkey on white bread, no condiments, potato chips.) Go for another eight hours, then five hours for food (more turkey on white with chips) and sleeping on the cots in the hall. Then we start all over again with another eight hour session. Any Senator attempting to escape will be brought back by the Sgt at Arms. And we keep on until we’ve either confirmed every promotion, or Tuberville releases his hold.
wjca
@JoyceH:
There appears to be an opinion (not clear why) that slogging thru all the promotions like this would somehow reward Tuberville. And thus encourage more of the same. But patience is clearly not having any effect, so it’s time and past time to try a different approach.
JoyceH
@wjca: I’m sure when they talk about voting one at a time they mean normal civilized Senate hours. And they talk about doing the service chiefs separately, leaving the rest of them out to dry. My way would only last a few days until Tuberville backed down or was shived in the cloakroom. Meanwhile it would provide Must See TV for C-SPAN and then Jeopardy questions for years to come. (“This senator was reprimanded for attempted to smuggle mustard onto the Senate floor during the great Senatorial Slumber Party of 2023”)
Bupalos
It’s Gretchen Whitmer.
I mean, that really is our best candidate, but this is a joke. Because it matters who your candidate is but as you’re pointing out here in the real world it matters just as much HOW YOU GET TO THAT CANDIDATE. As much as I can support the disconnected idea that Joe Biden should have declared victory and announced an intention to retire after the IRA passage, in context that just opens a process, and likely one that would have divided the party pretty badly and left us in at least as vulnerable a position as we are in with grampa Joe.
Geminid
@Bupalos: The primary process would not neccesarily leave the party divided, but that is a real possibility as you point out. But it would definitely suck up a few hundred million dollars that could be better used on other races.
UncleEbeneezer
@Redshift: And for the people who claim they don’t mind Biden’s age, they’re just very worried that other voters will…well, then why are they constantly bringing it up? By their own logic, bringing it up is actually helping Trump. So if anything they should be keeping that shit to themselves.