After all that simping for Trump, they completely broke him. https://t.co/ub1oaGRbg6
— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) October 6, 2023
We're doing Greek metaphor and myth? Ikaros? Reckless courage? Vaulting ambition? Really? How about: Kevin McCarthy went into the GOP stable with a small hand trowel and the worst cretins in his party. He came out completely covered in shit and the stables are still full. https://t.co/VQxVArpI6n
— David Simon (@AoDespair) October 6, 2023
Rep. Jamie Raskin on Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House: “He’s got a tragic flaw. Which is, that because of his natural flair for authoritarianism, he loves to cover up and apologize for men in power who abuse their power to vicious ends." pic.twitter.com/NXd7AH6DDH
— All In with Chris Hayes (@allinwithchris) October 7, 2023
Electing Jim Jordan House Speaker guarantees the Democrats retaking the House in 2024.
Jordan has no leadership or people skills, he isn't very smart and all he has is arm waving and bluster.
— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) October 6, 2023
Yeah but Hakeem Jeffries and the other Democratic leaders are gonna run circles around him.
— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) October 6, 2023
Jim Jordan would bring a unique attribute to the speakership: he would arrive with favorables 20 points under water with independents, making him one of the least popular political leaders in the country. That’s with 1/3 having not yet formed an opinionhttps://t.co/oNliiodVMw https://t.co/RJVb9FNByY
— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) October 5, 2023
One aspect of speaker candidate Jim Jordan’s recent history the newsletters are leaving out pic.twitter.com/F8ig5XgVpL
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) October 5, 2023
That’s not fair, there is absolutely a scenario where Gaetz is also trying to distract from being charged with sex trafficking and paying underage girls for sex. https://t.co/mrx8QhLohG
— Jason Karsh (@jkarsh) October 7, 2023
Jokers, I tell ya!
There are perhaps ways to avoid the worst effects of a House majority that is both dysfunctional and bullied by extremists (discharge petitions, etc.). But the simplest way to a functional and non-extreme House is for five sane Republicans to support Jeffries for speaker.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 6, 2023
Love seeing @TheDemocrats take a back seat this week with the dumpster @GOP fire this week: ousted House speaker, cash broke Rudy and MyPillowGuy, gag order and finance monitoring of TFG, Gaetz being Cawthornd, George Santos treasurer pleaded guilty. pic.twitter.com/YPbDbXoGyC
— KAMALA NATION (@KamalaNation) October 5, 2023
(* Post title slightly rejiggered for accuracy)
NotMax
From downstairs, some timely reports on the Gaza/Israel hostilities from a variety of sources.
Deutsche Welle – NBC – Al Jazeera
Barbara
In my view, per Bill Kristol’s tweet, so- called Republican moderates only have to threaten to vote for Jeffries, or maybe one or two to follow through, before the crazies cave. They are all about maximizing their own power — the credible threat of a D speaker would be like throwing water on the wicked witch and they end up being a melted puddle of nothing.
bbleh
Republicans are really caught with their ass in a crack. They either have to compromise with the eeeevillll Democrats or be led around by the nose by their own loony-toons. There’s no middle way. No wonder they’re all sweating bullets.
I can’t see any real possibility some would break off and elect Jeffries. They’d probably have to switch parties in the process, and that’s never a good strategy for re-election: your former party hates you and your adoptive party isn’t quite sure how much to trust you. Plus if that happened, the remaining Republicans would go full-tilt MAGA in reaction. And then Jeffries would have an even slimmer margin to work with and an opposition consumed with frothing hostility: not sure he’d actually want that.
It’s more likely — though still not very likely imo — that some majority of the Republicans decide they’ve had enough of Matty Gaetz’s blackmail and back an elder-statesman type who is willing to hold his nose and work with Democrats (and whom Dems trust to keep his promises). There’d be a lot of room for posturing there too: you could SAY you’re still a loyal servant of the God-King and VERY upset about all this awful compromising, but that you too are holding your nose and going along, for now, for the Good Of The Country. They might even work a deal with Jeffries where a bunch of Dems back the compromise candidate and the wafflers can get away with voting “present.”
But I still think MAGA / Jordan is the most likely outcome. If Trump barks, an awful lot of them are conditioned to jump. And any quid-pro-quo for the Democrats would quickly become an object of hate-fetish for the entire party, and the MAGA wing would work furiously to undermine it: not clear how long that might hold up.
OzarkHillbilly
Letters from Drancy
I know, the Holocaust is just Jewish propaganda, fake news and all that. Still, It could be worth watching.
Ken
I’ve seen mixed reporting on McCarthy’s plans, ranging from throwing his name in the hat to try to be re-elected Speaker, to throwing in the towel and resigning after the vote.
The plan I’m hoping for, but consider incredibly unlikely, is the one where he files a motion to vacate immediately after the new Speaker is chosen.
JWR
Aside from the MSM going full-bore “Biden’s Broken Campaign Promise”, which story they’ve been dying to get their “Dems in Disarray” hands on, I srsly doubt Jordan could get the votes, which result might make for a kinder, gentler House. Or at least one that’s functional.
RaflW
Always wrong Krystol (earned over a lifetime of wrongness) hucking Jeffries.
Great.
Steeplejack
@Barbara:
I am leery of the “five sane Republicans vote for Jeffries” solution. They could block Gym Jordan from the speakership but then go right back to voting GQP crazy, or cherry-picking which Democratic items they deign to support, while leaving Hakeem Jeffries to blame for nothing getting done in the dysfunctional Congress.
Better to let the Rethugs muddle through this on their own? (Question mark because it’s a horrifying prospect. 😬)
skerry
If Qevin would step down, what is the process to put in a replacement? Does Newsom have to put a Republican in the open slot?
Dorothy A. Winsor
@NotMax: Here’s an LGM report on the attacks and possible reasons for it happening now
Splitting Image
Bill Kristol is back to being always wrong if he thinks that there are five sane Republicans in the House right now.
I mean, he is on the right track, but the only way to get where he is going is to replace five Republicans with five Democrats.
Geminid
@bbleh: Rep6iblican defectors wouldn’t neccesarily have to switch parties. They could set up their own “Independent Republican” caucus. I’m assuming some of them would be planning to retire anyway. And Newhouse (WA) and Californians Valadeo and Duarte run in jungle primary states,and this could actually help them. Newhouse and Valadeo have already survived voting to impeach Trump.
I think it would take a lot of deadlocked votes for 5 Republicans to defect and vote for Jeffries, or make a deal with Democrats to elect a “caretaker” Speaker like Tom Reed. But there might be a lot of deadlocked votes.
EarthWindFire
@bbleh: I agree with you. I don’t think a deal of any kind will happen. If it there were deals to be had, McCarthy would have made them with the Democrats in the first place.
All McCarthy had to do was make some small concessions and manage to not trash Democrats for one or two days in exchange for all of them voting “present”. He couldn’t even manage that. Why would any of the rest of the caucus be capable of it?
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Geminid: My first reaction to Jeffries as speaker is “why do you hate Hakeem Jeffries?”
Baud
@skerry:
Special election
Baud
@Geminid:
If there is a defection to form a coalition government, it would probably have to be a huge chunk of Republicans so no one stands out.
Shalimar
@bbleh: Pushing hard for Jeffries is how you negotiate, but I think it would probably be better for Democrats too to have a retired Republican caretaker than a Democrat in charge for the next 15 months. Only the barest essentials are going to get done, and whoever leads the shitshow is going to get part of the blame.
bbleh
@Geminid: Re deadlocked votes, I originally thought they’d have their sh!t sorted out fairly quickly, thanks in part to pronouncements from the Oracle, but now I fear there WILL indeed be a lot of deadlocked votes, and therefore no business done for a while, and that’s potentially ungood.
One of the things that surprised me was the revolt over the Fox beauty pageant. From the reports I’ve seen, people got pretty het up about it, and certainly the invitees backed off quickly. This to me suggests a lot more turmoil under the surface than I thought there’d be.
I’ve also seen a few reports of a strong pushback against Jordan personally, more because of his (in)abilities and his loyalty to TIFG than because of his (ahem) history, and this in turn suggests loyalty within the party to TIFG may not be as lockstep as I thought. BUT they may also be just stenography for an opponent of Jordan, so I dunno how real they are.
All very interesting. And whatever happens will tell us a good deal about the makeup and the thinking of the Rep conference.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I got all excited when I heard one of my favorite chains Bed Bath & Beyond was coming back. Then I read it was because it had been bought by overstock.com.
I don’t know anything about them as a business, but the fact that “the overstock.com guy” was right next to “the My Pillow guy” in a lot of the Jan 6 run up does not give me a warm feeling.
In other news I just got my first negative test since getting COVID 11 days ago. So CDC is right on the money with their 10-day guidance.
Another Scott
@bbleh:
I was looking around recently, reminding myself of what Boehner and the other RWNJs said about “compromise”. He said in his Stahl interview that he was all for “finding common ground” but he was never going to “compromise”.
I was struck by Jeffries House floor comments during the 90 minutes or so that the Democrats were scrambling to read the CR text before voting on it. There and subsequently, he used that same verbiage about “finding common ground”.
It’s good that he’s taking back some of the language.
It’s also good that he’s trying to give them a way out of the cult, using their own terms, and back to sanity.
But, the GQP has to grow up and fix themselves.
IIRC, it’s not uncommon for nearly impossible things to happen in a lame duck session – especially if there are lots of people who are retiring or losing their seats. It would be bad if there were no budget, etc., until November 2024, but we (as a country) would survive (and many would be hurt along the way).
We’ll see.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: that seems to be almost inevitable at this point. But I think a lot more GOP clowns need to die in dumpster fires before it will happen.
dmsilev
@skerry: Special election. The Gov gets to set the date (with some restrictions), but that’s it. Seat stays vacant until the special.
Geminid
@Baud: I think that if it comes time to defect, 5 Republicans will be so desperate to leave they won’t care about standing out. They’ll be fed up with listening to Margery Greene doing her Harpy imitation, and looking at Bob Good and feeling their skin crawl.
hueyplong
Any suggested solution that involves rational thinking by Republicans with an eye toward the good of the country is not grounded in reality. They are hopelessly corrupt, morally and otherwise. Their Führer is Donald Trump. To point out just one more example, there is a non-trivial number of GOPers who probably want no speaker at all so as to make it easier to shut down the government at the end of the 40-odd days we have left. Blackmail, personal or political, will drive the behind-the-scenes maneuvering that produces the next speaker. It’s the last thing they want aired in public, and most likely why the Fox “debate” was instantly shot down.
BlueGuitarist
@Another Scott:
Ruben Gallego also talked about finding common ground when Kari Lake badgered him at the airport.
Geminid
@bbleh: When Republicans went through those 15 votes in January, the more centrist wing of the caucus stuck to McCarthy like glue. I don’t think they’ll vote for a Speaker from the Freedom Caucus. Scalise seems like the only one who can unite that fractious caucus, but he might not be able to. If voting goes on into next weekend, I’d say all bets will be off.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@BlueGuitarist: Someone was speculating about how the Lake/Gallego conversation was recorded in the airport. Their notion was that she recorded it in hopes of getting something to use against him.
Another Scott
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I’m no expert and haven’t read all the stories, but I hope that the MSM is mentioning the recent provocations by Israel’s hard-right.
AlJazeera.com (from 10/4):
One has to be careful about reporting like this, because, among other things, people with agendas conflate the mosque itself with the “complex”. But, it was clearly a huge provocation, and intended to be.
Grr…,
Scott.
BlueGuitarist
Postcards and music thread tonight at 8, info in the sidebar under political action.
We can help get out the vote in Virginia and Ohio.
BlueGuitarist
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
yes!
Rachel Bitecofer
https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1710411894853681292
Geminid
@BlueGuitarist: Krazi Kari is trying her bullshit on the wrong guy. Ruben Gallego is a hard target.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Geminid: @bbleh:
Corrupt yes, but not irrational. Kevin McCarthy gave Matt Gaetz power. It’s no surprise that he (Gaetz) used it. If anyone doubted that would be the result those notions have been dispelled.
The Rs calculations at this point are exclusively directed at 2024. Will they adopt a cooperative strategy that is best for them as a group or just descend into every man for himself? What Gaetz will do is obvious. Whether they will accept the object lesson isn’t yet clear.
Shalimar
@bbleh: Jordan was co-leader of the Freedom Caucus when it was founded. From what I read, he isn’t hated like Gaetz, but he also is bad politically for those who have to fight for their seats every 2 years and he doesn’t go out of his way to make friends like McCarthy and Scalise and any other person with aspirations to be leader does. I think the never-Jordan caucus has to be at least 50 people. It would be really hard to find things to give every one of them.
Geminid
@Mr. Bemused Senior: However this Speaker fight turns out, I think this will be the last Republican House Majority this decade.
bbleh
@BlueGuitarist: @Dorothy A. Winsor: see, it’s EXACTLY this sort of sneaky THINKING and DELIBERATELY sensible positions that PROVES Demon-crats are underhanded conspirators trying to FORCE good, workable government DOWN OUR THROATS!
The only POSSIBLE defense is violent, fanatical cultism tethered neither to reality nor to its own previous pronouncements! After all, they MADE us do it!
BlueGuitarist
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
in other D meets R news,
J.D. Vance showed up at a UAW picket line to pretend to support workers. Marcy Kaptur was there of course.
Brief conversation:
Marcy: first time here?
Jd: first time here, yeah.
Marcy: Thanks for coming.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4242982-democratic-rep-to-sen-vance-on-ohio-picket-line-first-time-here/
And in other UAW news, UAW president Shawn Fain announced that GM agreed to include electric battery production in the master contract.
bbleh
@Mr. Bemused Senior: @Geminid: to the confusion of our
enemiesopponents! 🍺Mr. Bemused Senior
@bbleh: I’ll drink to that!
Geminid
@BlueGuitarist: Marcy Kaptur is an interesting Congresswoman. She started doing volunteer work for the Democratic party when she was 13 years old. That was around 1957.
Another Scott
RollCall.com:
(Emphasis added.)
Um, yeah, he has reason to be worried.
“We’re a unified powerful block! Well, except for that weirdo – he’s not with us…”
Democrats need to find a way to exploit situations like this. These guys want to be re-elected above all else. Drive the wedge deeper!
Everyone should keep an eye on the House “casualty” list (what a morbid name!) and go after the GQP seats if at all possible while keeping the Democratic ones.
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
@BlueGuitarist: I’m sorry, but she rolled right over him. He was not impressive in that exchange at all.
TS
@Ken:
If the ex speaker intends to resign from congress & stay out of politics for his future he could have much influence and a fun time during this vote – but he will still be fawning before trump & go out with a whimper.
Another Scott
@zhena gogolia: Crazies can be “good” at debates and such. It doesn’t make them persuasive politicians that appeal to voters.
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
@Another Scott: I know that everything she was saying was crazy, but her penetrating voice and (vomit) charisma remind me of Trump. Gallego was not effectively pushing back at all.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I suppose I can’t call her a sneaky little bitch, so I guess i have to just say that I couldn’t dislike her more. I think Ruben did fine.
, but I hope he’s ready next time with his own sound bites.edit: Now that I’ve seen the full video I think he held his own and did great with her clearly planned ninja attack.
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: Lake was ready, Gallego was not and it showed.
But I’m not worried about Ruben Gallego. He’ll do fine in this race.
zhena gogolia
@Geminid: I did think the passersby she was stopping thought she was a loon, or at least the first one did.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: The independent Arizona polling group OHPredictive did a poll in February, of 2-way and 3-way Senate matchups. Rep. Gallego’s lead in all of them were beyond the poll’s margin of error.
OHPreditctive also asked voters to rate the candidates on likeability. Gallego was the only one with a net-positive rating, of +6. Lake was way underwater at -20, second only to Blake Masters’ -22.
WaterGirl
@Geminid:
Of course Lake was ready. She planned it. It was an ambush!
edit: not yelling at you. I am yelling at her.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Gallego was coming home from his workweek. Lake hasn’t held down a job for at least 2 years.
ed. I know you are not yelling at me- even if I have given you plenty of reason lately!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I thought Gallego came off fine, if it wasn’t the political jujitsu we might’ve liked to see. He has a reputation as a hothead, I suspect Lake was hoping to provoke a confrontation.
I am struck by the message discipline with which RWers have stuck to Fentanyl as their “it’s not about race” when they scream about “THE BORDER!”
hueyplong
My main takeaway from the airport confrontation is that Lake is effectively admitting that she’s not in great shape absent some sort of event to shake things up.
LiminalOwl
@Anne Laurie: Am I missing something, or is the reversal in your subject line just a mental glitch?
Barbara
@Steeplejack: I don’t think they intend for Jeffries to become speaker — they just need a credible threat to subdue the constant threats to create chaos. It’s a game of chicken.
artem1s
Problem is their idea of common ground isn’t about getting anything done. The only thing they have in ‘common’ is who they hate and/or want to hurt and can’t imagine anyone would have other motives. McCarthy lost because of it. He got an invite to the WH for a sit down with POTUS. I’m pretty sure he saw that as Biden bending the knee – just like he did when he went to MAL. He never imagined the crap they were spewing about the Dems, letting Gym run his shitshow impeachment, not letting the Dems read the CR, and reneging on the deal he made was going to bite him in the ass. It’s exactly the kind of strong man language and behavior he and all the other authoritarian assholes expect when they cower around TIFG or someone like him. I think he honestly thought that the Dems wouldn’t vote for the CR. It was going to hurt the GOP after all, right? GOPers honestly believe Dems are all posturing when it comes to being concerned for the Unter Menschen and are only motivated by the same hatred that drives the GOP. McCarthy was obviously pissed about the CR passing and was not prepared for the Dems to side with Gaetz of all people in the MTV. The GOP is always going to be vulnerable to getting the short end of any deal because they see compromise as losing and win/win scenarios as a pussy way out even when they are dealing with their own party members.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m not one to spurn converts or even co-belligerents in the fight against trump and trumpism, but I’m a bit gobsmacked to see Bloody Bill Kristol, the man who brought us Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin and was one of the chief cheerleaders of the Iraq War (remember him poo-poohing the “pop sociology” concerns about Sunnis and Shi’a?) now sounds like a junior writer on an Aaron Sorkin show
I think the best we can hope for from those “moderates” is Speaker Tom Cole or some such, and I wouldn’t put that at more than a 20% chance
lowtechcyclist
Late to the interwebs this morning, but I want to marry David Simon’s response to that bullshit about Icarus from @JeffreyLAT, who I assume is some L.A. Times house pundit.
WaterGirl
@artem1s:
“Common ground” is directed toward voters, particularly “norms” who don’t pay close attention.
Chief Oshkosh
@Barbara:
There is another view on this. The crazies don’t really view themselves as being on a team. They are in it for the personal grift and ego. Period. There’s probably several of them that would LOVE for “their” party to be back in the minority. Makes it much, much easier to do absolutely nothing except fundraise off the latest OUTRAGE committed by the DemonRats of the RINOs!!!!!
lowtechcyclist
@artem1s:
This. Totally this.
Also this. And that’s why North Korea has nukes (fuck you, Shrub), and why Trump killed the agreement with Iran to keep them from having nukes. Because this was just as true in the 1990s as it is now.
Brit in Chicago
@Geminid: I so hope that this is right, and that it lasts. I’d been hoping the Sinema would stay out of the race. Having her run as an Independent and lose to Gallego would be even better. (But if she runs it is risky, and I’m not in the mood to gamble on something so important. So I guess I have to continue to hope that it’s just Gallego and whichever R crazy, and that Gallego wipes the floor with her/him.)
Juju
@zhena gogolia: To me, her penetrating voice came off as that of a mother or female teacher chastising a poorly behaved child, which he is not. Given the situation, I think he handled it well. Was it perfect? No, but he was polite, civil and gave her more of his time than I would have in the same situation.
Ella in New Mexico
So, if we are to believe that history just repeats itself, are we saying the Civil War is over and now we’re in the corrupt and crazy phase of Reconstruction? Because this feels an awful lot like what I read it was like back then.
piratedan
my take from the Lake/Gallego airport ambush is that Lake was trying to get Gallego to “agree” with her or have him “blow up” at her so she could deceptively edit that into her next series of campaign ads….
she didn’t get that.
He doesn’t need to unsheathe the Sword of Casa Grande and smite her into submission or behead her and watch her remains dissolve into a puddle of acid. He needs to show that he can be reasonable and informed and approachable. People that know him already approve of his passions and his service… now he has to sway those in the muddy middle.
No One You Know
@zhena gogolia: The way to show up a bully on public, where any voter can see you, is to treat the bully as if serious.
“I can maintain my positions and good manners under attack.”
Clear demonstration of competence in public. He let her roll herself, and she got nothing but frustrated.
artem1s
@Ella in New Mexico: No we’re just getting to the phase where the losing side is beginning to realize that they can only maintain the status quo with threats of violence and actual violence. They’ve still got the courts on their side making Dred Scott rulings and Congress is trying to hold the country together with bailing wire and Missouri Compromises. But everyone can tell those are only fingers in the widening holes in the dike. J/6 wasn’t the Civil War, it was a feeble failed attempt to be their Ft. Sumter. A couple of Red states made half-hearted attempts with their fake electors. But none of them had the courage? to follow thru with secession.
But the middle way, commerce focused Whig Party moderates are finally breathing their last breaths. The party that was birthed to find a solution to slavery is rotting from the inside out because they won’t abort the dead flesh of racism from itself. What it will birth is anyone’s guess. Their messiah tried to start the race war that they have been threatening us with for a hundred years and failed. So we’re no where near Reconstruction – the war hasn’t even started. It’s more like the GOP decided to adopt the Know Nothing’s platform instead of abolition as their motivating reason to exist and then nominated and elected the biggest Know Nothing they could find.
cain
@Ken: lol – and the dems join that – removing Jim Jordan. Watch them yell at each other after that because the Dems are happy to vote for any move to vacate. :-)
Until people realize without Dem support they aren’t going to get a speaker.
prostratedragon
Alcaraz is good.