According to CNN, the U.S. asked Israel to delay the ground invasion of Gaza, ostensibly to allow more time to get hostages out. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant — the same official who said Israel allowed humanitarian aid into Gaza without the release of the hostages because the U.S. asked them to — announced that the IDF is preparing a “multilateral operation” against Hamas from “the sea, air, and land.”
Like many observers, I figured President Biden visited Israel and embraced the horrid Netanyahu not because Biden trusts the Israeli PM but rather because he’s trying to prevent Netanyahu from taking rash action that would result in even more civilian loss of life. (The reminder about U.S. mistakes after 9/11.)
But maybe it’s more directly connected to U.S. interests. In a newsletter published today, Josh Marshall speculates on why the U.S. is attempting to exercise some control over the timing of the ground war:
President Biden has made a huge and public show of support for Israel. Increasingly in both countries it’s been seen as a bear hug of sorts: an enveloping embrace, promises of money, arms, strategic military support and more and yet focused in many ways on not just on supporting but exercising control over Israel’s coming ground invasion. Key US goals are keeping Israel focused on limiting civilian casualties and figuring out a political solution for Gaza after Hamas. If Gaza is left in anarchy after Hamas is toppled or put back under Israeli military occupation, even the most successful military operation will just delay a return to some version of October 6th.
But the US also has more concrete and immediate goals, which seem to be playing at least some role in the delay of a ground operation. One is the desire, already getting some play in the US press, to negotiate the freedom of more hostages before a ground campaign begins. But a more immediate issue is beefing up the defenses of US military forces in the region. This is something getting a lot less attention in the US press.
There is a huge fear in US military and defense policy circles today that the Israel-Hamas war will skid out of control into a regional war that will bring Iran and US directly into the conflict. For a taste of this read Tom Friedman’s column from late last week. It’s a genuinely frightening read. The US is presently rushing lots of resources into the region both to deter attacks on US forces by Iranian proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and other countries and if necessary retaliate against them. It’s become more clear to me in recent days that those two carrier groups sent to the region aren’t there just to deter Hezbollah and Iran from attacking Israel but to deter attacks US military forces throughout the region.
I quit paying attention to anything Tom Friedman says years ago, but I read the referenced column (gift link), and the scenario he outlines sounds plausible. I think Biden knows Netanyahu is a corrupt, Trump-like snake who repeatedly puts his own political interests above the security and interests of his country. So maybe Biden is attempting to be the grownup in the room there too, not just for Israel’s sake but for ours.
Open thread.
Wapiti
Buying time to get US forces into the region seems like a good thing. It also buys time to have fewer bad things happen.
MattF
Netanyahu and Iran have repeatedly traded existential nuclear threats toward each other, the current warfare brings all that forward. Friedman is well aware of past nuclear threats from both Israel and Iran— I give him credit for saying what needs to be said here. ‘Wider war’ is a euphemism for catastrophe.
rikyrah
This can very well spin out of control. The President knows this.
rikyrah
Has Bibi admitted that Russia is the one who gave Iran the Israeli Intelligence ? And, where Russia got it from?
Geminid
@MattF: So far as I have seen, Israel is very careful not to threaten any country with its nuclear weapons. It has made it clear that they will use force to prevent Iran from becoming “a nuclear threshold state,” but they would use conventional wepons to attack nuclear program sites.
The IDF conducts exercises each year where 35 or so fighter jets will circle the eastern Meditereanean until they’ve clocked the distance to Iran. Then they veer off and simulate attack runs over Israel and start circling again. They practice refueling during the exercises. Ed. Israel doesn’t say what these exercises are for, but they don’t have to.
Iran does not have nuclear weapons yet, and even disclaims the intent to acquire them. They do threaten to use their substantial stockpile of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones to attack Israel if that country attacks it.
Suzanne
I think, in this case, the interests are the same: the U.S. wants to limit civilian catstrophe because we know we would get drawn in if that happens.
Villago Delenda Est
I’m sure Tom picked up his insights from some taxi jockey in Mumbai. Fuck Friedman. Forever.
Jay
@MattF:
Iran has neither the nukes or the ability to hit Israel with them.
Iran’s “aspirational” nuke threats were made in 1981 after Israel attacks on Iraq’s incomplete Osirak Nuclear Reactor.
In October 2003, Khamenei issued a fatwa against the development or use of any WMD’s including nukes.
Friedman is full of shit. Remember what a “Friedman Unit” is?
H-Bob
@Villago Delenda Est: Every Friedman Unit (6 months)
MattF
@Geminid: I concede that a precise lexical analysis of Netanyahu’s statements will likely show that he’s never made a direct public threat against Iran. But, somehow, everyone knows what he’s thinking, and that knowledge of his thoughts is not derived from telepathy.
Jay
@Geminid:
Israel doesn’t even admit that they have 150 or more nuclear weapons, both air launched, ground launched and submarine launched.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu
NotMax
Meanwhile Pence is out there saying the U.S. must deploy ground troops to Gaza NOW.
Geminid
@MattF: I think Israel is reserving their nuclear weapons for threats greater than Iran presents or will present in the near future.
Ed. They have said that they won’t allow Iran to become “a nuclear threshold state,” but they can accomplish that goal with conventional weapons. They couldn’t end Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but they could set it back a couple years at least.
WaterGirl
@NotMax: Oh, geez, let’s elect him. Pence is clearly commander-in-chief material. //
Betty Cracker
@NotMax: Seriously? I read that Pence might not qualify for the next debate because he has too few individual donors. Iowa evangelicals might buy the Armageddon package and goose his numbers!
pat
@NotMax:
Really? link please..
pajaro
I yield to no one on this site in my dislike for the mustache of understanding, but the stuff he has written since the installation of Israel’s hard right government eight months ago has been good. He’s still influential in some circles, and I believe he’s right that we are doing this not just to help Israel, but because we are concerned about the possibility of a wider war, and that it would be a threat to our security if one were to break out. (I don’t know if he even talked about this, but the last thing that we need right now is an oil shock, which might well happen if Israel, Lebanon and Iran started lobbing missiles at each other)
Suzanne
@NotMax:
You can always count on the Talibangelicals to start a holy war. They think it’s fun.
Jay
@Geminid:
In addition, most people don’t understand Iran’s “relationship” with their “proxies”.
The only “proxies” Iran controls are the various IRGC groups in Syria.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc, get (varying by the group) some arms, aid, technical training, (mostly in missile clones and upgrades to captured equipment).
Military training, tactical training and strategic training is probably minimal. Hezbollah knows more about fighting the IDF in Lebanon and raiding into Israel than the IRGC ever will. Ditto for Hama in urban Gaza. Ditto for the Houthi’s.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc, all have their own local agenda’s, and have a long history of undertaking actions regardless of if it is in Iran’s best interests at the time.
Iran uses them as chaos agents in the region but it doesn’t control them.
RaflW
The alternate view of the US build-up, and I don’t know that I support this take, but I’m curious about it, is that war-eager folks in the Admin want more assets in the area to draw fire and be equipped to escalate.
I trust Joe Biden to be cautious, canny and realistic about Netanyahu, but are there folks in the nat. sec. / foreign policy space in the admin who are itching to fight? Dunno.
Subsole
@Suzanne:
Of course they do. They’re not the ones getting shot. They’re too busy singing and dancing and gibbering in tongues.
glc
@Villago Delenda Est: Entirely fair.
NotMax
@pat
Here ya go.
Geminid
@RaflW: I think the main drivers of administration policy in this area are Secretaries Austin and Blinken and national security advisor Sullivan. I don’t expect anyone below them to do any freelancing.
CIA Director Burns is probably also in on policy making. President Biden elevated Burns to Cabinet rank a few months ago, a sign that Biden values Burns’s judgement.
Betty Cracker
@NotMax: Good God, what an idiot Pence is.
Suzanne
@Subsole: Absolutely right.
I still remain absolutely unconvinced that a ground war will not create more problems than it solves. The air strikes have already been devastating.
RaflW
@Betty Cracker: He’s eager for the end times. These people cannot be in charge of the nuclear football. Ever.
(At least Pence has no viable path, thank FSM)
cain
@Jay:
It would be smart not to over train them – you never know when it bites the hand that feeds.
Timill
@Suzanne: A ground war in Asia? What could possibly go wrong…?
pat
@NotMax:
Thanks. I think. So he had no idea that the false electors scheme was even going on… What a weasel.
Chris
@Jay:
One of my favorite things about last year’s Top Gun sequel is that the basic premise, “we must conduct an air strike on a nuclear reactor about to go operational in a country that is blatantly Iran even if we don’t name it,” was lifted almost completely from the much more forgettable Iron Eagle 2.
Iron Eagle 2 came out in 1988. Top Gun: Maverick came out in 2022.
It’s a nice illustration of how Iran, as far as the narrative is concerned, has been “on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon” for the last four decades.
Subsole
@Suzanne:
Sometimes war solves the problems you have.
It always gives you a brand new set of problems, regardless.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: At first I was going to question why anyone would be surprised that Pence was an idiot, but then I figured I should click the link first.
Holy shit. Send in all of our premier units – Navy seals, etc – and not only tell them that we’re coming for the hostages, but tell them when we are coming.
Holy fuck.
Betty Cracker
@WaterGirl: Yep. I’m pretty sure a reasonably bright kindergartner would spot the flaw in that military strategy.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I don’t think advocating for US military forces to enter Gaza will be a winner politically. Maybe Pence is so far out of the running he doesn’t want to be ignored altogether.
Chris
@cain:
Maybe. But Iran’s proxies have been far better about not biting the hand that feeds them, than the proxies of its rivals like Saudi Arabia.
I think it’s because they’re all regionally focused. Hamas cares about Palestine and Israel. Hezbollah cares about Lebanon and, though not quite as much as Hamas, Israel. The Houthis care about Yemen. They can operate further than that if they want to (especially Hezbollah), but on the whole, their main interest lies within their particular little corner of the Middle East. None of them have delusions about being the capital and government of a worldwide Islamic caliphate, which is more than you can say for Daesh or al-Qaeda.
That makes it easier for them to see Iran as just another faction whose interests don’t conflict with theirs, rather than a future rival to be overthrown on their way to ruling the world (or at least Islam).
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Coming for American hostages. All other hostages are apparently disposable untermenschen.
Jeffro
@Betty Cracker: Good God, what an idiot Pence is.
True.
And yet, he pronounced “Qatar” correctly, while I have apparently been pronouncing it incorrectly all these years. So, stopped clocks and all that.
(Narrator: Pence is actually dumber than a stopped clock…Jeffro’s just reaching for a metaphor here)
Bex
@Betty Cracker: There’s a Xitter out there with a picture of Pence and Mother at a campaign “event” speaking to a crowd of about seven people. Caption? “Dude, just drop out.”
sdhays
@NotMax: Someone get that man a fence to glare over!
(And then drive away fast!)
Suzanne
@Subsole: This one, specifically, seems to be almost perfectly instigated to make Israel less safe and secure.
Jay
@cain:
Other than on technical issues, Iran has no real ability to train them.
Iran can train a few guy’s on missile and drone tech by smuggling them out of Gaza, but the training has to be limited to the shit missiles, (they are fueled by shit basically) Hamas can build out of common construction missiles, and Hamas knows more about that than they do. Hamas also knows more about tunnel fighting, urban combat and raiding into a fortified area than the IRGC, because the IRGC has never done that.
Hezbollah can send a large number of people, (not a lot, just enough to be able to train when they get back) into Syria for training on weapons systems from Iran that will be smuggled back into Lebanon, or build in Lebanon, but Hezbollah has their own training areas in South Lebanon and are masters in ambush, (patrols, tanks, helo’s), bunker fighting, secure communications, and raiding into Israel in the hill country of South Lebanon. Again, combat experience that the IRGC does not have.
Basically, the same goes for the Houthis.
In some ways, it’s like us and the Ukrainian’s. They know more about drone warfare and trench fighting in open ground than we do, because our manuals all date back to WWI.
NotMax
@Bex
Five of whom, when asked, answered “I heard there were free donuts.”
sdhays
Seriously, it makes me so mad to have anyone say anything about VP Harris being “inexperienced” or problematic after the useless pile of cow dung that is our previous VP.
WaterGirl
@NotMax: Yeah, I had that same thought, and then Pence added as an afterthought “and Israeli hostages”.
Sister Golden Bear
@Betty Cracker: Depends what your goals are. If you’re hoping to trigger Armageddon in order to start the Rapture….
NotMax
@Sister Golden Bear
Cretins who see God as an Uber.
Jay
@Chris:
Well, it’s not like the makers of Top Gun: Maverick could use Libya again for the sequel.
Or the drug cartel and the evil Nazi Aircraft Designer plot of Firebirds.
Betty Cracker
@Jeffro: Are we sure Pence’s pronunciation (“cutter”) is correct? I’ve heard Qatar pronounced at least half a dozen ways, including “GUTter” and “guhTAR” and “kehTAR.” I have no idea which one is correct. (I’ve settled on “kuhTAR,” but maybe that’s wrong.)
Jeffro
@Betty Cracker: the mighty Google says it is “kuh-TAAR”, so he’s a little off, but not as off as I’ve been all these years. =)
HumboldtBlue
California Governor Gavin Newsom raises minimum wage for all health care workers to $25 per ho
Other MJS
@Subsole: Eloquent. Stealing.
pat
@Jeffro:
That’s interesting. I believe I’ve only heard CUTter recently.
Dopey-o
Dopey-o rites letterz!
———————-
Mr. President,
I was quite pleased with your address on Thursday evening when you spoke for the rights of the Israeli and the Palestinian people.
I know that you have some of the smartest Americans advising you, please let me presume to add my 2 cents.
The key to defeating Hamas is to not fight Hamas.
The key is to make Hamas fight the Palestinian people.
Israel should halt all movement and make the following offer: if all Hamas terrorists go to The Hague and surrender, Israel will turn control of the West Bank over to the Palestinians.
When everyone sees that Hamas is the greatest impediment to a Palestinian state, Israel will be absolved, and Hamas will be seen as the ‘bad guy’.
This will be a huge concession by the far-right Israeli extremists, but is necessary to save lives. I have no doubt that Hamas would welcome a second Holocaust, as would Iran.
Civilized people can not allow the slightest possibility of another Holocaust. Jewish Holocaust? Palestian Holocaust? God forbids either.
I remain your friend,
—————
PS: There are many details to be worked out: lists of suspects, transportation, terms of surrender, proportional return of control of West Bank areas, and return of all hostages. I am confident Sec. Blinken and team can resolve them.
ETA: Obligatory ef goldman reference regarding West Bank Settlers.
Suzanne
@Betty Cracker: “Cutter” is the closest to correct in English, per Mr. Suzanne (bilingual SLP, degrees in speech pathology and linguistics).
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: I think that back in the first Gulf War the the Pentagon told soldiers and airman to call the place “Cutter” to keep them from hawking out lugies trying to pronounce it the right way. Wolf Blitzer picked it up and pretty everyone else copied him.
Josie
@sdhays:
That crossed my mind as I listened to him. Not only did we have a corrupt authoritarian as president for four years, we had this nincompoop sitting in the second seat, Boy, were we lucky to come out of that period more or less intact.
NotMax
@Jay
Moved from Swasticraft to designing amusement park rides?
;)
Suzanne
CNN is now reporting that doctors in Gaza are now operating on children without painkillers.
And now I’m going to go throw up.
NotMax
@Suzanne
Other outlets reported the same at least a week ago. While likely so as infrastructure deteriorates and supplies dwindle, could also be more sporadic than universal, part and parcel of the fog of war.
(Not implying sporadic is any way good.)
pat
So what are these children going to do when they grow up with this PTSD? Why, look for some way to get a bit of revenge. Isn’t Israel just producing the next batch of Hamas militants?
Suzanne
@NotMax:
Once again, I remain to be convinced that attacking Gaza is (1) necessary to get Hamas, (2) likely to be successful in getting Hamas without creating a whole new generation of Gazans who want to join Hamas or harm Israelis, and most especially (3) the right and moral thing to do. Never again.
Suzanne
@pat:
Why yes.
rikyrah
@NotMax:
Absolutely Phuck Outta Here!
pat
So Bibi is thought to be responsible for the disastrous lack of information about the upcoming attack, and now he is doubling down on turning Gaza into rubble. And bombing in the south after telling everyone to leave the north? I don’t get it. What can he possibly hope to accomplish? And keeping supplies out of Gaza, including fuel to keep the lights on in those hospitals…
Good lord, that sounds like something the Nazis would do to, say, a pogrom in Poland….
Really not sure I should send this, but wtf.
Jay
@Suzanne:
@pat:
Sadly, satellite photo’s are coming out of the damage in Gaza from IAF airstrikes.
OSINTtechical has a bunch.
It looks like Israel’s “brilliant” plan is to “keep bouncing the rubble”,
https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1716214495834423497#m
Cheez Whiz
@Subsole: i throw a Molotov cocktail, Boom! Right away I have a different problem!
Chris
@pat:
Fairly certain Bibi et al. don’t care. At this point, they’ve internalized the notion that even if they fuck up everything completely, the resulting fallout from their fuckups can simply be used to rally nationalist opinion around them and blame the liberals for everything.
It’s one reason why booting him from the government should have been absolutely imperative – this cycle is simply going to continue until it starts to look like there are, in fact, political consequences for this kind of fuckup. But most people aren’t willing to do that, so here we are.
Suzanne
There seems to be the slightest shift in tone as we inch closer to this ground invasion. According to WaPo, Obama said:
ETA: “Erode support for Israel” is the hint here. I know that BHO is not in the government, but I also am sure he wants to serve Biden well. If someone was going to say it…..
Cheez Whiz
No matter what clusterfuck Israel visits on Gaza, I wonder if anyone other than Biden is thinking about what happens after that. Israeli policy for decades has been to keep pressure on the territories, and the existence of things like Iron Dome and universal military service shows they understand the price they have to pay for that. But they failed to be aware of the threat they “manage” and failed spectacularly. Will the Israeli public just shrug their shoulders and go that’s just Bibi being Bibi? It did work for Bush, but we weren’t actively oppressing the Kingdom of Saud at the time, assuring the public everything was under control. I really hope Israelis aren’t as dumb as Americans.
Princess
@Suzanne: yeah, but it’s crucial if you want to whitewash your failures and complicity in the worst attack on Israeli soil in 50 years. See also, GWB, Afghanistan, Iraq. Netanyahu doesn’t give a f about the hostages, who will all be killed, and he’s walking into a trap set by Hamas, who don’t give a f about the Palestinians.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Yes, Cutter. It sounds weird, but it is correct.
Jeffro
@Suzanne: Big O has a gift for subtlety…I think Xi (and others) respected him for that.
Geminid
@Chris: I think a majority of Israelis want to boot Netanyahu, but many of these don’t want to do it mid-war. That could change, though.
glc
@Subsole: That’s Jason’s philosophy, from The Good Place.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@pat: this.
I’ve always read the news (part of the reason I started reading blogs) and I remember when in the 20th century Israel was always invading Lebanon. They did more than once, and the reason given was always to make Israel more secure and to end terrorism.
Now southern Lebanon is in the hands of Hezbollah, and no-one in Israel thinks of invading Lebanon anymore.
When Israel looks to take lessons from the past, they look only at the Holocaust and stop there, which is really odd when you think about it.
suzanne
@Jeffro: I think BHO is saying what the official admin cannot. I know that my inclination toward giving Israel foreign aid is affected by the treatment of the Palestinians.
I don’t buy the “settler colony” discourse at all, but I also feel no affection toward ethnostates either. As far as I am concerned, everyone should have the right to live where they want. But keeping a segment of the population removed from a democratic political process is indefensible.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Geminid: it certainly explains why Bibi’s determined to keep his country in a war forever.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
The Grozny approach didn’t work for the Russians in Grozny.
It did make it quite clear what sort of humans the Russians were. (And still are, now in Ukraine.)
Geminid
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: Netanyahu has not kept Israel in this war forever, just 16 days and counting. I don’t think the Gantz and Gallant, the other two “War Cabinet” members, will let Neranyahu drag this war out indefinitly just to save his skin. I don’t think the Knesset will either.
Bill Arnold
@Jeffro:
Scroll down the google search results (for e.g.Qatar pronunciation ) and weep, and laugh. It is one of those place names that is not easily properly pronounced by most English speakers.
Gvg
@Geminid: From my point of view, they have been at war my whole life.
Technically it’s been a few days but really it started long ago, just unofficially.
Villago Delenda Est
@Jeffro: Raymond Luxury Yacht?
Geminid
@Gvg: That is true in a relative sense. But it certainly seems like this is a war that started 16 days ago, like the Gaza War in May of 2021 had a beginning and then an end 11 days later. You could say there was a war going on before and after that, but it did not get much attention at all, while this one has gotten a lot.
sab
@Geminid: 90 % of the 80% of Israelis that are Jewish want a land invasion of Gaza. That is kind of of overwhelming.
eta I don’t know why I tagged this to your comment. Sorry about that.
Geminid
@sab: That’s Ok. The number does not surprise me.
I’m pretty sure the IDF will launch a major offensive into Gaza City, and probably go all the way to the coast. They have already conducted several raids into Gaza. The only questions might be the scope and duration of the operation.