Is Putin Winning in Ukraine? “He’s About To, and It’s On Us,”
(Politico Magazine)
The veteran Russia watcher is deeply alarmed as Washington reaches an inflection point on the war in Ukraine.
When we spoke this week, she [Fiona Hill] made clear that the decision of whether Ukraine wins or loses is now on us — almost entirely. As Congress debates how much more money to authorize for Ukraine’s assistance amid growing Republican opposition, she says that what we are really debating is our own future. Do we want to live in the kind of world that will result if Ukraine loses?
Hill is clear about her answer. A world in which Putin chalks up a win in Ukraine is one where the U.S.’s standing in the world is diminished, where Iran and North Korea are emboldened, where China dominates the Indo-Pacific, where the Middle East becomes more unstable and where nuclear proliferation takes off, among allies as well as enemies.
“Ukraine has become a battlefield now for America and America’s own future — whether we see it or not — for our own defensive posture and preparedness, for our reputation and our leadership,” she told me. “For Putin, Ukraine is a proxy war against the United States, to remove the United States from the world stage.”
This Politico Magazine article is quite sobering, to say the least. It is primarily in a Q & A format – here are the questions.
- Ukraine is fighting the Russian invasion on several fronts: military, financial, political. In each of those areas, is Ukraine winning, or is Russia?
- How about in the financial and diplomatic arenas?
- So Ukraine isn’t losing yet. But depending on the domestic situation in the United States, and with its European allies, it could? It could start losing very soon?
- What do you think Putin sees when he’s watching the debate taking place in the United States right now?
- You said a loss for Ukraine would shift the entire balance in the Indo-Pacific region — you mean shift it toward China?
- Putin initially thought he would just go and take Kyiv, and obviously, that didn’t happen. How do you think Putin now would define a win for himself and for Russia?
- Russia’s presidential election is scheduled for March. How does the war in Ukraine play into Putin’s reelection bid?
- What happens to the West if Putin wins?
- So you’re concerned that if Putin wins and Ukraine is partitioned, that will set off a nuclear proliferation race.
- You’ve written about the failure of the United States and the UK to provide adequate opportunity to all of its citizens. You’ve talked about the United States as being in need of a bigger “infrastructure of opportunity.” What do you say to Americans and members of Congress who feel like the money that we’re using to help Ukraine would be better spent right now at home?
- If the supplemental passes, and the U.S. does not step back from its support for Ukraine, where do we go from here? What’s the best-case scenario for going forward?
- What happens to Putin if he loses?
- How will China respond to a Putin loss?
- So the big question is, again, is Putin winning right now?
- But the decision’s ours?
I won’t even try to summarize what Fiona Hill said, but I can include a couple of quotes from the article.
Ukraine has become a battlefield now, for America and America’s own future — whether we see it or not — for our own defensive posture and preparedness, for our reputation and our leadership.
American leadership is still very important. But other countries are starting to make plans for a world without us at this particular point. And you can be sure that Vladimir Putin, and President Xi and many others will be pretty ecstatic if we give up on Ukraine. And that could happen just as soon as December or January, because if Congress goes home for the holidays without passing the supplemental, and everyone’s back in their constituencies, there’s a lot of stuff that can happen in their absence, in that vacuum, that void that we have created. Everybody else in the rest of the world would be wondering, not just, “Where is America?” but, “What on earth has happened to America?” And if President Trump thinks that he’s going to be the leader of the free world when he comes back into office — well, think again. There won’t be a free world to be leading at all. And that’s not an overstatement. That’s just a fact.
So you’re concerned that if Putin wins and Ukraine is partitioned, that will set off a nuclear proliferation race.
For Vladimir Putin now Ukraine has become a proxy war. It’s not a proxy war by the United States against Russia. We’re trying to get Russia out of Ukraine, period. But for Putin, Ukraine is a proxy war against the United States, to remove the United States from the world stage. He’s trying to use Gaza, and Israel like that now, as well. He’s trying to whip up anti-United States sentiment wherever he can. I’ve just come back from Europe and from a whole host of conferences where there’s just so much rage and grievance about the United States and Putin is fanning the flames.
Putin sees Biden as a major opponent. He is an obstacle for Putin to be able to win on the battlefield of Ukraine. So Putin wants Biden to fail. Putin would be thrilled if Trump would come back to power because he also anticipates that Trump will pull the United States out of NATO, that Trump will rupture the U.S. alliance system, and that Trump will hand over Ukraine. So right at this particular moment, Putin sees an awful lot that he can get out of undermining Biden’s position.
Now, the problem, of course, is that currently many members of Congress and others are thinking about whether they want to run to be vice president for Trump, and what they should perhaps do now to support Trump and pave the way for his presidency. So the idea of giving Biden anything that could positively affect the election is just a bridge too far.
We have a situation now where perhaps Biden is the only person who can actually break the legislative logjam. Members of Congress and senators, many of whom I know from my own discussions with them absolutely support assisting Ukraine and get the importance of this moment, still can’t get past the domestic politics. Biden is going to have to somehow persuade them that if they rise to the occasion, helping Ukraine is not going to give him some kind of political boost and a consequential win.
So the big question is, again, is Putin winning right now?
He’s about to, and it’s on us. We’re at the point where it’s on us. If we leave the field, then he will win. His calculation is that our domestic politics and our own interests override everything, and that we no longer have a sense of national security, or of our role in international affairs. This is a moment for him to get rid of not just Pax Americana, but America as a major global player.
But the decision’s ours?
The decision is ours, this decision is entirely ours. We’re just falling all over ourselves to engage in self-harm at the moment. Ukraine shouldn’t be a partisan issue. I just hope that people are going to be able to dig deep, and realize the moment that they’re in.
🌼 BJ peeps, please explain this to every single human you know.
What do you say to Americans and members of Congress who feel like the money that we’re using to help Ukraine would be better spent right now at home?
That it’s actually being spent at home! That’s the irony. Because every time you send a weapon to the Ukrainians, it’s an American weapon. You’re not buying somebody else’s weapons to go to Ukraine. It’s also a fraction of our defense budget.
It’s really a circular process here. We are providing weapons to Ukraine, we’re buying them from major manufacturers of defense systems here in the United States, which are obviously providing jobs for the people who are making them. And then we’re going back and we’re ordering more because we’re replenishing and upgrading our own weapons stocks. This is all part of our own system. These defense manufacturers account for huge numbers of jobs across the whole of the United States, so arming Ukraine means significant job creation and retention across the United States and also in Europe and elsewhere.
People in Congress know that, it’s just that they’re playing a different game. They want to play up this issue of “it should be spent at home” because of the transactional nature of congressional supplemental bills.
Let’s just put it frankly — this is all about the upcoming presidential election. It’s less about Ukraine and it’s more about the fact that we have an election coming up next year. The problem is that many members of Congress don’t want to see President Biden win on any front. People are incapable now of separating off “giving Biden a win” from actually allowing Ukraine to win. They are thinking less about U.S. national security, European security, international security and foreign policy, and much more about how they can humiliate Biden.
In that regard, whether they like it or not, members of Congress are doing exactly the same thing as Vladimir Putin.
Read the whole thing.
It’s quite sobering to see this all laid out so clearly, even if most of it isn’t new information. I imagine that the people who most need this information won’t bother to read it.
Open thread.
Alison Rose
It makes me want to cry. As an individual, it feels incredibly helpless. Calling and faxing and writing Republicans in Congress doesn’t seem like it’ll do a damn thing, because that would require them actually giving a shit what people want. So we have to sit here and watch a country get decimated because too many people in this country are self-interested heartless idiots.
Fuck this timeline.
Elizabelle
Check the headline. Putin, not putting.
Everything Republicans touch dies. Except corruption and bank accounts.
Geminid
Thank you for posting this, WaterGirl.
WaterGirl
Dammit, it looks like the US is set to veto in today’s vote on Israel-Palestine. On this, I think Joe is wrong.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: Thanks. I swear that one was a copy and paste. Weird.
Damien
Kinda feels like we got another chance at global greatness after Bush with Obama, then one more after Trump with Biden, and if we blow this then any and all alliances with America are basically worth absolutely nothing.
Christ how pathetic, I can’t believe I have to actually use the phrase make America great again, but SERIOUSLY THIS TIME
trollhattan
I think Bibi does not give the first fuck what the UN says (he and Vlad are peas in a very nasty pod).
Ironically, “not connected to reality” is the proper way to respond to “the elimination of Hamas.” Bibi and the IDF cannot do the impossible, which means they can war for basically ever using this imaginary goal.
How many nazis has Vlad harvested in Ukraine?
WaterGirl
Seriously, we should all be saying this to everyone we know. It’s amazing how many people do not understand this.
What do you say to Americans and members of Congress who feel like the money that we’re using to help Ukraine would be better spent right now at home?
rikyrah
The Republican Party cannot be trusted. I’m tired of tiptoeing around this. The entire lot of them are Russian ops. They do not see protecting America as their primary purpose.
WaterGirl
@trollhattan:
That’s why it’s even more important that we not veto this. It’s more about what it says to the world. And maybe, just maybe, Putin would care when the US stops giving Israel the get out of jail free card.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I think President Biden will be ready to authorize a “Yes” vote on a permanent ceasefire before too long. Just not yet.
In the meantime, there could be another “pause.” Axios’s Barak Ravid and others report that Israel is offering a 7 day ceasefire, if Hamas will agree to trade 40 of their hostages for a number of Israeli prisoners.
Hamas insists it will not accept anything less than a permanent ceasefire, but one of their leaders, Mr. Haniiyah, has flown from Qatar to Egypt to participate in negotiations.
CIA Director William Burns and Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea are working on this, with Qatar’s Prime Minister serving as interlocutor for Hamas.
Marmot
I’ve called my Repub. US Rep and one of two senators regularly the last few weeks, alternately begging, flattering, insulting, and holding them in contempt. And I talk about it with other people a lot.
It’s a mystery why this simple step is always missing from Ukraine doomerism (you know who I mean), the part where we do what we can do.
frosty
I can’t bear to read this … but I will, later.
ETA I’ve called my R Congressman a couple of times. Time to do it again.
Hoodie
@WaterGirl: The members of Congress know all that. The lesson may be more don’t put all your eggs in one basket because American politics can be fickle and affected by sectarian fights that have nothing to do with Ukraine. The Ukrainians bought a lot of time and bogged the Russians down for a long time with the help they have received. There still is no substitute for American help because no one else has the wherewithal to do what Ukraine needs. In that sense, we’re indispensable because we’re the biggest warehouse on earth, not because we’re particularly reliable. We’ll probably come up with some sort of package for Ukraine after the GOP puts everyone through a bunch of unnecessary performative bullshit. The delay will no doubt hurt the Ukrainians, but it’s not like they have a lot of other options. There aren’t enough resources or unanimity in the EU to substitute for what the US can provide.
rikyrah
@trollhattan:
Well,considering we know that the Israeli’s had the Hamas plan in their possession, but, deemed it too far fetched, which means that their 9/11 happened on his watch..
Yeah, Bibi is a ghoul..
WaterGirl
I saw a reference on twitter that Jamie Raskin is “on TV” talking about members in the House should also be ineligible because of participation in the insurrection. I don’t watch TV and I haven’t seen a thing like that on Raskin’s twitter account and I’m not finding it on Google. I would love for that to be true, but I am not finding it anywhere. Has anyone seen anything like this?
Suzanne
@WaterGirl: Agreed. Nothing good is being accomplished with this war. Israel isn’t improving their position.
As for Ukraine…. I will never forget that it was the Republicans who happily, gladly decided to embolden and empower a murderous dictator all so that they could dunk The Woke.
WaterGirl
@frosty: That’s how I felt, too, when it first came out. I had to read it in chunks. For today, maybe read the chunk I quoted in #8?
That’s manageable, and not depressing!
WaterGirl
@Hoodie:
Yes! Fiona Hill goes into that in the longer quote up top. It’s infuriating to have government officials who don’t believe in governing, or even democracy, but do believe in lying for their own political gain.
Mike in NC
The Trumpublican Party is infatuated with Putin because he’s the racist, fascist, homophobic asshole strongman they’ve been hoping to come along for 50 years now. They only wish that they could permanently install him in the White House instead of his puppet.
zhena gogolia
“We’re just falling all over ourselves.”
What do you mean “we,” Dr. Hill? Has your keyboard lost the letters R – E – P – U – B – L – I – C – A – N – S?
ETA: I realize she’s not typing. But damn, I hate this de-personalization of the real blame.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: Thanks for saying what I was thinking.
WaterGirl
@Marmot: Yes!
Unless we want to be helpless pawns in a movie that someone else is directing – a movie for which we already know the ending, and it’s very very bad – our job is to do everything we can to positively impact the outcome.
WaterGirl
It seems to be call it like you see it this week. I’m glad to see Democrats being willing to say this out loud.
What do you guys think?
Geminid
@trollhattan: Early in this war Politico Magazine published a long interview with a retired Israeli general named Amos Yadlin. A chief of Israeli Defense Force Intelligence in the 2000s, Yadlin is still very well connected in the Israeli security establishment..
The interview covered a lot of ground, but what caught my attention was his statement of the central war aim: to end Hamas’s 14 year reign in Gaza.
I do not know if they can achieve this, but I think that President Biden and his national security team want them to. That’s basically why Ambassador Greenfield will veto the ceasefire resolution.
Of course, Israel cannot “eliminate” Hamas, only marginalize them as a military and political force. But that’s Netanyahu’s word anyway, the words of a self-interested liar. And while he is still Prime Minister, Netanyahu no longer has sole control of Israel’s conduct in this war. So I do not neccesarily take his statements as official policy.
rikyrah
@zhena gogolia:
I know that’s right.
Stop with that
WE
Congress
BULLSHYT
When it’s all
Always
REPUBLICANS
moops
Saving Ukraine is just the latest GOP hostage that they will threaten in order to get something to show the folks back home. This is the only thing they seem to do anymore.
Another Scott
While reading, remember that Politico is in business to grab eyeballs and get political junkies all het up.
All respect to Hill, but I think “many” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
The GQP is doing what it’s been doing for decades – trying for a maximalist win with a losing hand. They want a WIN on the CRISIS AT THE BORDER. It doesn’t mean we and Ukraine are doomed.
I think just about everyone in Congress recognizes that a Supplemental is going to pass, sometime, and the broad outlines will be like Biden proposed. And there will be some immigration policy changes that suck but won’t be HR-2. The arguing in the Senate now is over whose ox is going to be gored more, and that will serve as the basis for the House vote (probably skipping the Rules Committee again and thus requiring a 2/3 vote to pass).
Yes, the details matter – a lot. But Biden and Schumer and Jeffries know how this stuff works, and know how to count votes.
This is the politics of closely-divided government. There’s a lot of muddling through and that’s far from optimal. And it’s yet another reason why we need to fight for every gettable seat.
We all recall that the US supported Ukraine while TIFG was in power. The US is not going to abandon Ukraine while Joe Biden is in power – it’s just not going to happen.
Politics is slow. Divided government is messy and aggravating and causes lots of problems.
I think Fritschner’s take (from late September, early October?) continues to be a good one – (roughly) – the GQPers are so upset because they know that something like Biden’s proposal is what is most likely to pass.
We’ll see.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Hang in there, everyone.
Quinerly
And so it begins…..
https://themessenger.com/politics/texas-dan-patrick-biden-ballot-removal-trump-colorado
Alison Rose
@Quinerly: Good luck with that, bro.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Alison Rose: They should just secede.
[ETA /snark, just to be clear]
Yarrow
@Mr. Bemused Senior: Edited because above comment was edited.
But it’s still never funny to make that comment. We’re all upset when anyone mentions Ukraine giving up territory but ha ha Texas should secede, so funny. Nope. It’s not. Either you support the entirety of the US or you don’t. It’s not acceptable when talking about Ukraine and it’s not acceptable when talking about the US.
Sister Golden Bear
@Mike in NC:
Speaking of which…. ‘Poisoning the blood’ of US: Trump’s harsh words grow support among likely Iowa caucusgoers
Anoniminous
@Quinerly:
Of course.
Anyway
@rikyrah:
Defeating Democrats is their primary purpose.
Alison Rose
@Yarrow: I don’t make “secede” jokes but I will note these two things are not the same. If Mexico were bombing the shit out of us to try to take Texas back and people said “eh let them have it”, that would be similar.
And I will just note, I’ve seen plenty of right-wing Texans saying they want to secede because, you know, the Democrats are gonna make all their kids trans and require weekly abortions or whatever.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Yarrow: I imagine you are aware that there’s a nontrivial strain of support for that idea in Texas. Not a serious possibility.
In my view the GOP has become destructive to our country. I don’t say this lightly, it’s very troubling.
Quinerly
@Alison Rose:
I know….it’s just no end to this. I suspect I am close to 20 years older than you. I have very vivid memories of when it wasn’t like this. Christ, in 1982 I interned in DC for a Republican Senator, even though my parents and I were what my mother described as “rabid Democrats.” The Senator in question had been one of my political science professors in college and he liked to argue with me in class. He was elected in 1980 and I was graduating in 1982….going to law school in the Fall. He specifically put me on a list of past students he wanted for internships. I felt like a traitor to my politics….but my parents encouraged me to take it for the experience of being on Capitol Hill and living in Washington.
I just can’t believe how things have changed in 40 years.
Sister Golden Bear
Also too… It’s not fascism unless it comes from a Berlin bunker, otherwise it’s just sparkling authoritarianism. Police Search MA Middle School For “Queer” Book
As usual it was a single wing nut who triggered things: “It was an anonymous complaint that led Great Barrington Police to open a probe about whether parts of the book, “Gender Queer” by Maia Kobabe, could be considered obscene material or pornographic.”
BTW, just a reminder that the most famous photo of Nazi book burning, was Nazis burning the library of the Berlin Institute for Sexology — founded by a gay Jewish man, which advocated for LBGTQ+ rights.
Elizabelle
@zhena gogolia: That is my biggest problem with Fiona Hill.
Call the Republicans out, and stop with the infernal “we” which tars those trying to obtain a good outcome as well as those trying to obstruct.
That trait makes Hill less than honest, in my book.
Nelle
First generation American, daughter of an immigrant here. As a child, I heard my father screaming in the black night from nightmare terrors from his childhood in Ukraine (WW I, Russian Civil War, 1921 famine). My grandfather, a writer, escaped imminent arrest and the rest of the family was put under Red Army house arrest (except my uncle who was taken and put in prison). At age 8 or 9, my father had to have a soldier guard him when he went to the outhouse.
I had lots of questions and he gave me honest but limited answers, instead making up funny stories when he could. As I grew older, I learned more. He was four when he saw a beheaded body. He was eight when “collaborators” were hung in the village; he saw that too. He would never talk about what happened to my grandmother and aunts when they quartered soldiers in their house.
So he screamed from nightmares.
My husband has fewer nightmares, but he had three years of combat in Vietnam, the last being intense on those river boats up the Mekong. He has disturbed sleep.
I don’t advocate for war. But I do advocate for meeting evil head on and not playing games with it.
I include these details to my Congressional representatives over and over. Especially when I talk about my husband, it shoves them into listening and being sure to do the ritual “honor his service” business.
I wish it made a fucking difference. Sigh. Time to try again.
different-church-lady
Some men just want to watch the world burn.
A lot of them are in congress.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: A court has now adjudicated the insurrection issue and made a finding of fact that he is an insurrectionist. I am more concerned about the “officer of the United States” issue. It may seems petty and technical to a lot of people but it is often on such things that legal decisions turn.
Don’t @ me. It is a real issue and the S Ct could easily really on it. Legal terms of art can seem arbitrary and off-base in day to day English.
different-church-lady
@WaterGirl:
RAMASWAMY: “I’m going to remove my name from Colorado’s ballot!”
COLORADO: “Who are you again?”
different-church-lady
@Omnes Omnibus:
I have no doubt a significant portion of the SCOTUS will seize upon every technicality, no matter how slight.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Why would I @ you about that?
I have known since the initial Colorado court ruling that their “no, President isn’t an officer” ruling would almost certainly go straight to the Colorado Supreme Court, and that if the CO supreme court said “President is too an officer” that it would almost certainly head to the US Supreme Court.
As for the Supreme Court…
No one knows what the US Supreme Court will do, but I’m pretty sure it is likely to be slippery or evasive or some bullshit “this ruling is a one-time only thing and doesn’t create precedent”. Or perhaps they won’t take it up at all because they don’t want to be the ones to rule either way. Because either way that goes, it’s going to be a shit show. Because Republicans.
But if I had to guess, totally-out-of-control-Trump would be a threat to the power of the US Supreme Court so they may not rule in the way some people think they will.
Omnes Omnibus
@different-church-lady: Technicalities are what all our civil rights decisions are based on. Did Ernesto Miranda have a pretty good idea of what his rights were? Probably. But we require a formal recitation of those rights anyway.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WaterGirl: My guess (and it’s pure guess) is that SCOTUS will decide Trump can stay on the ballot for reasons, but is also does not have absolute immunity because ridiculous. Then they get to preen themselves on being balanced.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Someone will.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus:
Relatedly, …?? Reception of English Common Law in the American Colonies (35 page .pdf):
“Consonant to reason” is a good standard. Dunno about some of the other stuff. ;-)
Yeah, words matter a lot. Reason too often gets short shrift these days though…
We’ll see what happens.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus:
I said this last night: whatever happens in the courts from here, I am just happy that the CO Supreme Court was willing to rule on what appears to be true and accurate.
Donald Trump participated in the insurrection, at the very least.
Same thing with Biden’s comments in response to the question in the tweet. I thought Biden answered perfectly. How the SC rules in this case is up to them, but yes, Trump obviously participated in the insurrection.
I was happy to see his say that loud and clear, as a statement of fact.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I have no doubt about that!
But it won’t be me. :-)
TriassicSands
I don’t think we can guarantee that Ukraine wins, but we can guarantee that it will lose. Winning depends on many factors, some of which are completely out of our control. Ukraine’s ability to sustain opposition to Russia depends on its having enough people to fight a much larger country. Can Ukraine maintain the will to fight long enough? It also matters just how much force Russia is willing to use to defeat Ukraine and how effective its military is.
Our critical role is ensuring that as long as Ukraine checks all the relevant boxes, we will provide them with the materiel to continue to fight. That means the Republican Party has a say and no one in their right mind wants to depend on the Republican Party for anything important. And, of course, our willingness to supply them will have a vital impact on the issues that are out of our control. How long can Ukraine maintain the will to fight if they don’t have the means to effectively wage war against Russia?
gene108
What scares me to death about Republicans is when they talk about America First, they want to both be isolationist and still be the most powerful country in the world and the rest of the world treats us as such.
Most lack the self awareness to understand what they support and do makes us look pathetic to the rest of the world.
As Gildor tells Frodo and company, as they are dodging Black Riders in the Shire, as they try to go to Bree:
Reality will eventually catch up to Republicans to the point they cannot brush it off, and then they will seriously look for scapegoats to persecute for their failures.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
Cheers,
Scott.
Hoodie
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m less worried about that, as that would be one or the more nonsensical ways of dispensing of the case. It sounded dumb when the district court judge did it, but I think she wanted to ensure this thing got appealed to the upper court by having this sort of split holding. I think the CO Supreme Court made the right call, but I would not be surprised if they’re reversed on the due process aspect. This is a case of first impression, raising a somewhat unique situation in which a state district court acting in equity is able to decide whether someone has engaged in an insurrection, raising the possibility of getting different results in different states on that issue for an officer who is nationally elected. It could be a good thing if the ruling by the CO court forces the USSC to lay out some standards on this even if they reverse, because otherwise would set a bad precedent and open the door to even more egregious behavior, either in the form of worse autogolpe attempts or, conversely, some wingnut judges in Texas finding Obama not qualified for lack of being a natural born citizen based on a couple blog posts and the latest episode of InfoWars. I wouldn’t be surprised if they say this requires some sort of conviction for an insurrection-related crime in federal court that would have effect in all states, or some equivalent thereof (e.g., officers of the Confederate Army or office holders in the Confederacy might be viewed as per se “engaging in an insurrection”).
Geminid
Laura Rozen (@lrozen) reports that the Security Council vote on a ceasefire is being pushed back to tomorrow. It sounds like a very expansive resolution with a lot of wording to wrangle over.
Also, Qatar has facilitated an agreement whereby Venezuala transferring 10 prisoners to the US. Most are American citizens who we say have been wrongly detained by the Maduro government.
One did not want to come home. That would be “Fat Leonard,” the Navy contractor who jumped bail last year and fled to South America..
Ruckus
@Alison Rose:
At one point in my life rethuglicans were at least a semi responsible political party. They still wanted to regress to where they were the only humans alive on earth, which wouldn’t have worked out well for them at all, because all they seem to be able to do is fucking complain because they aren’t in charge, which given the modern rethuglican party, they would fuck up at least 10000% of any thing they touched. They are just hateful shits because they are trying to regress history 50-60 yrs and people with more than 2 brain cells to rub together know that sucked donkey balls for a very large portion of the population and do not want to go backasswards. Conservatives really must not understand that life really, really, really sucked for a lot of people, and that many of them would be on the receiving end of their policies as well. Old US politics was, as it somewhat still is, all about the money, who had most of it, who controlled who got any of it, and who paid most of it in. It wasn’t the people with the most. It was supposed to be…. in their theory. Most of us got a lot better and I believe that is one of the conservative issues – they didn’t like that many of the humans they consider less than themselves actually are a billion times better.
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: @you, and the horse you rode in on!
TriassicSands
I agree. The low point for me in Biden’s presidency was when he publicly hugged Netanyahu and promised unconditional support. I understand the political complexity of this issue — Jews are an important part of the Democrats’ constituency. But the Jewish vote is not monolithic and on an issue where there is disagreement, I think Biden has to choose what is morally right, not what might seem to be politically expedient.
Has the U.S. ever been successful in curbing Israeli excesses? Possibly, but we certainly haven’t eliminated them or even tried to do that. We’ve continued to give them aid despite the expansion of illegal settlements that are a huge impediment to a peaceful two-state solution. I see nothing wrong with guaranteeing Israel’s existence, while making aid contingent on policies that contribute to a just end to this open wound.
Gin & Tonic
I have difficulty seeing how a Putin “win” is defined. He may have the power to demolish Ukraine, like Mariupol, but he cannot conquer it.
...now I try to be amused
(deleted — comprehension failure)
rikyrah
@Sister Golden Bear:
Of course, it was about LGBTQ+ issues.
They are obsessed.
They want anything written showing the humanity of LGBTQ+ people erased
My question is..
the police in this town don’t have anything else to do outside of this? They couldn’t push this person to take it up with the Superintendent’s Office?
Why the phuck are police going to school classrooms?
TriassicSands
Breaking News: “Trump Asks Supreme Court to Put Off Hearing Case on Immunity Claim”
Justice delayed is justice denied unless you happen to be a thoroughly guilty and depraved POS who thinks that justice rendered is INJUSTICE.
Hoodie
@Ruckus: The thing to understand is that the GOP gradually lost their original natural economic base as the economy corporatized and the country urbanized. They had to find a substitute for that, because protecting rich people from paying taxes and balancing the budget at the expense of grandpa and grandma is not exactly a popular platform in and of itself. What was left? Racism, xenophobia and other forms of paranoia. What you’re seeing is a confluence of tribalism and the shamelessness and corruptibility of a lot of careerist politicians.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: Biden did not hug the Israeli Prime because it was Netanyahu, but despite of it. He knows who and what Netanyahu is as well or better than anyone here.
And please correct me if I am wrong, but I think “unconditional support” are your words and not President Biden’s.
TriassicSands
@Gin & Tonic:
I think destroying Ukraine will satisfy Putin. When he is finished, the country will be in ruins and rebuilding it will cost endless amounts of time and money. Would Putin even be willing to do that? Or would he be satisfied with a wasteland buffer zone between the Motherland and NATO?
Hoodie
@Gin & Tonic: Honestly, Putin’s biggest win probably lies more in succeeding to convert Russia back into having an expansionist, imperialist mindset instead of worrying about things like food, healthcare, etc. Like a lot of people who are insulated from consequences (e.g., American billionaires), he probably thinks the Russian people have become soft and weak, disempowered by western decadence (which, of course, he enjoys in spades). He wants to make Russia great again. It probably warms his heart seeing Russians going off willingly to slaughter for no other reason than he ordered them to do so for the motherland. It almost doesn’t matter if they prevail.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: There is “Jo” again! Now that you ID’d her to me, I see her stuff a lot.
sab
@gene108: This is the real world we are talking about, so why are you quoting Frodo?
Ruckus
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I believe that there is a court case going on now about his asinine concept that he has 1000% immunity and he can do anything he wants.
This shit running for president was one of the worst things I’ve seen in all my decades – and there are a number of them. Decades and worst things. This shit thinking that he is above everyone else on the planet and is able to say, do anything he wants is beyond anything I’ve seen or heard of in that life, because he is a 240+ lb pile of pure shit. I know humanity has a lower limit, I just didn’t know it went that low.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic:
SWAG 1. keeps the territory seized since ’22 and 2. gains a pro-Kremlin government, stanching any entry to NATO or the EU.
Running tanks all the way to Poland seems unlikely.
Another Scott
@TriassicSands:
Disagree.
VVP’s and Putinism’s whole façade crumbles if Ukraine joins the EU and NATO even if it costs $500B to rebuild and integrate. His “we’re not like you” hokum collapses when a free and prosperous and successful Ukraine climbs out of the hole he dug for them. And climb out they will. And russians will start to look around and see that, hey, slavic serfdom really isn’t all that great and we actually are human beings that can strive for more than watering mother russia with our children’s blood…
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Hoodie
@TriassicSands: I think you have to take time in account on the Biden hug. At that time, he didn’t know the Netanyahu was going to start indiscriminately attacking Gaza and continue on that course unabated. Israel had just experienced an horrific terrorist attack. Sure, you could say Netanyahu’s actions were predictable given his past behavior, but they had created a unity government in which he presumably would not be calling all the shots. I think we’re seeing that it’s not just Netanyahu pushing the IDF response. There is a sizeable constituency for what he’s doing and we’re seeing some pretty savage stuff being done by the IDF. Israel has some big issues.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@sab: Because works of literature, while fictional, still make important and thoughtful points about the real world?
Geez, time to expand your horizons…
Ruckus
@Hoodie:
Yep.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: My husband keeps saying, “My inner voice tells me Putin will not prevail.”
He’s usually right about things.
Gin & Tonic
@trollhattan: How do you govern a country of 40 million people who hate you and everything you stand for?
TriassicSands
The symbolism was clear. Biden hugged Netanyahu as the leader of Israel, but most people are aware of who Netanyahu is and what his policies are. Netanyahu is the longest serving Israeli PM in history.
Search for “Biden offers Israel unconditional support. You may change your mind
I still support Biden, but not his approach to the Israel-Hamas issue. Another thread that is common is that “Biden’s unconditional support for Israel is beginning to weaken…” I hope that American diplomats are working tirelessly behind the scenes to limit the carnage in Gaza. But what is the likelihood that any conditions will be put on support or aid for Israel.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Hoodie:
Yep. And too few partners for peace.
I get Biden’s strategy, but I’m not sure it can work, due to this lack of Israeli leadership.
TriassicSands
That would require ignoring who and what Netanyahu is. I wish I did, but I don’t find your statement even remotely credible.
Omnes Omnibus
@sab: He is quoting Gildor not Frodo.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: This would be my shocked face.
WaterGirl
@Geminid:
That would be good news if it’s more changes in order to avoid a veto by the U.S.
Not great news if the U.S. will veto anyway. Off to check out Laura Rosen’s twitter.
snoey
@Quinerly: Add another 10 years and your back to when I started to understand Massachusetts politics. Ed Brooke was a Republican and Louise Day Hicks was a Democrat.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: Saw this on my way to Laura Rosen.
If that is true, I really don’t understand the U.S. position on this.
Dangerman
So many things I’d like to know. Starting with tonights lotto numbers.
I get why Trump is Putin’s Cock Holster ($). Bought like an Eastern European whore.
But the entire Party of Reagan? Don’t they know Ronny is spinning fast enough to light up Simi Valley? Then again, Reagan would have no chance in today’s Republican Party.
Crazy days.
WaterGirl
@sab: I thought it was relevant and useful!
sab
@Geminid: We had twenty years to marginalize Hamas and that didn’t happen because Bibi needed Hamas as an enemy for Israeli politics.
Also US parties needed it for whatever Godforsaken reason. Jimmy Carter blew up his hope for a second term by hoping to fix the mess. It wasn’t Iran. That was just the excuse. It was Israel.
The surviving Palestinians need Hamas gone for their own safety.
How that could possibly happen I don’t know.
sab
@WaterGirl: Really? Okay, I was wrong. I live in Ohio and we elected JD Vance. No hope here.
Hoodie
@TriassicSands: You have to work with what you have, not what you wish you have. As I said, there was a national unity government with other actors who could ostensibly reign Netanyahu in, but that hasn’t happened, which underscores that the problem is more than Netanyahu. There are broad elements in Israeli society and government beyond Netanyahu that want these things to happen. I imagine a lot of Israelis have been hardened by decades of conflict, added to an infusion of religious zealots over the last several decades who have no interest in anything other than their religious fantasies of a final solution to the Palestinian issue. There is a reason that Netanyahu has been able to survive all these years.
We all have a tendency to ascribe all evil to a single person, but that is seldom the case. Hitler had a lot of accomplices. So does Putin. So does Trump.
TriassicSands
@Another Scott:
I’m sorry, I don’t see how your comment disagrees with mine. Destroying Ukraine prevents it from joining the EU. Rebuilding a devastated country will take many years and cost a fortune. I don’t know if having Ukraine remain a powerless wasteland would satisfy Putin, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Putin is now in his seventies. Would he want to devote the last years of his life to rebuilding Ukraine at great cost even though it no longer represented a threat to join NATO. I can’t answer that and I doubt if anyone else can. But attacking Ukraine was an act of utter depravity, guaranteeing massive suffering. Although Putin may be delusional and believed the country would fold and get no support from the West. (It’s no secret where he might have gotten that idea, about no support, so maybe it isn’t really delusional.)
mrmoshpotato
@WaterGirl: Well, Dump’s fascist trash cult didn’t cook up the insurrection idea themselves. That’s for sure.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic: Through the kabuki of having your proxy in charge, e.g., another Yanukovych. That, for Vlad, would be a “win.”
mrmoshpotato
@Dangerman:
Are we all splitting the lump sum or creating a bank account for everyone for the annuity?
lee
Thankfully my House Rep who is normally an execrable person in general, looks to support funding for Ukraine.
WaterGirl
Am I the only one who thinks this is funny? Or at least fitting?
Omnes Omnibus
@sab: The quotation had nothing to do with hope. Have you considered going for a walk?
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Maybe the most important question the US and others are working on is, what comes after a ceasefire? Axios reporter David Ravid reposted Shail Ben-Epraim on a report in Le Monde:
TriassicSands
@Hoodie:
I don’t
subscribeascribe all evil to a single person. It takes the Israeli people to elect Netanyahu. Just like in the U.S. it took American voters to elect Trump. If you have ever read any number of my comments, I don’t blame what has happened in this country solely on Trump or even the Republican Party. The root problem is the electorate. Even when it makes the right choice, there are millions of people who disagree and many who may change their minds irrationally in the future.One can only gauge just how bad the American electorate is by examining the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Trump lost both popular votes, but we all know that isn’t what elects the president. And in 2020, after four years of incompetence and chaos, Trump received more votes than any other presidential cnadidate in history with the exception of Biden, who beat him. Trump got some 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016. I find that horrifying, even if he failed to win.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WaterGirl: I used to live in Waterloo, IA. It is a kind of symbolic name
WaterGirl
A new version of GroundHog Day?
How can anyone possibly take these people seriously?
Dangerman
I’m definitely a lump summer kinda guy. Eat the tax hit and be done with it …
… and I’ll gladly share after buying some property (already been picked out) and seeing if I can fit in a Nevera. As in, I’m nevera going to be able to afford it.
...now I try to be amused
@WaterGirl: “Merde!”
Geminid
@sab: Yes, we have not marginilized Hamas in 20 years. Now, the Israelis are using different means to marginalize Hamas: war.
They might not succeed, but then again they might. And rightly or wrongly, the Biden administration is trying to help them succeed. That is why Biden is not calling for a permanent ceasefire.
catclub
Ummm, Jimmy Carter blew up his chances by having the US economy go down 5% in 1979-80. The correlation of good economy and re-election is pretty high. So is the correlation of bad economy and no re-election.
OGLiberal
Stupid Americans have no idea how much we spend on things. Anything we give to Ukraine, Israel, etc, is fucking pennies compared to what we spend domestically and cutting all of that will not lower the price of gas (now below 3 bucks in NJ – do you really expect it to be lower?) or bread. And, as noted, we’re not just giving them money, we give them stuff, that we make, that we pay people in this country to make. Withholding funds from other countries we normally give money to is done to make them stop doing bad shit, not to make things better here – because what we give them is pennies, relatively speaking. I’m so sick of people in this country not understanding this. “But when I talk to my wife at the kitchen table, that’s certainly not something I would spend our family’s budget on – why does our government?” Fuck you and your kitchen table.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Seems like Biden has more influence with the Saudis and other arab nations than he does with Israel, which is not what I would have predicted.
*caviat, Bibi is a big problem, so maybe not that much of a surprise.
OGLiberal
@WaterGirl: Bibi is like Trump – he only cares about one thing…himself. Fucking monster.
Another Scott
@TriassicSands:
I guess it depends on what you mean by “destroying”, but I don’t see how it follows that suffering vast damage in a war prevents Ukraine from joining. (Yes, of course there would be a timeline and the USA would play a large role in the rebuilding.)
It seems self-evident to me that if VVP were satisfied with simply wreaking havoc on Ukraine, then he would declare victory and go home. As you say, he doesn’t want to rebuild the places he’s wrecked.
It seems clear to me that he wants to control Ukraine’s government and future. His maximalist statements in the speech before the invasion make that clear. That means, occupying the country and having a puppet government in Kyiv.
Ukraine isn’t going to stand for that. Ukrainians have long memories and know what’s at stake.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Hoodie: Actually, there is a unity government, created October 13 by a law passed by the Knesset. Benny Gantz’s 12 member party joined the government under terms including the control of major war decisions by a War Cabinet consisting of Gantz, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant.
Gantz is a former Defense Minister and IDF Chief of Staff. Gallant is the guy Netanyahu tried and failed to fire earlier this Spring, over a dispute about “judicial reform” legislation..
Another former IDF chief and Gantz ally, Gadi Eisenkot, and former Ambassador to the U.s. Ron Dermer have Observer status. They are there to advise and also to call out Netanyahu if he lies about War Cabinet decisions.
This development went unnoticed by many people in the US, but Israelis understood it to be a major shift. Netanyahu did not do this willingly, but severe pressure from the public, Knesset Members including some from his Likud party, and the U.S. forced him to give in.
Weapon X
@WaterGirl: That is exactly the kind of critical thinking and attention to detail that I expect from today’s republicans.
OGLiberal
@Geminid: It’s not my country but why the fuck is that asshole Bibi anywhere near a seat of power in that country? Don’t Israelis hate him? Or is he the one they want because he’s such a strong daddy? The US and Israel are birds of a feather
ETA: Ron Dermer is terrible.
AM in NC
@Marmot: I’ve been calling my two Republican Senators regularly on this too. Staffers who answer the phone seem sympathetic most of the time. Sometimes they get surly on other issues (abortion, eg), but on this one, I think there is room to move some Republicans.
Make them feel the heat on this. They are used to getting the benefit of the doubt about being strong on US NatSec, and here they are strategically screwing the pooch!
cain
@WaterGirl: I don’t either – I guess we should wait till Adam shows up?
But the U.S. has always blocked anything regarding Israel in the UN Security Council – preferring to handle it themselves. This seems to be consistent with every administration regardless of party.
I don’t know why that is – it is a mystery. Especially given that U.S. is having less and less influence on Israeli actions every day. I’m sure there is a ton of Mossad spying going on too.
Brachiator
Coming late to the thread.
I support Ukraine and hope that the Biden administration can find a way to deliver necessary aid.
However,
Other countries will pursue their own national interests. Some politicians and analysts desperately want the US to have enemies.
Gin & Tonic
@trollhattan:
How’d the last one work out?
Seriously, in the time during which Lukashenko has ruled Belarus or Putin, russia, Ukraine has had six different Presidents (five if you don’t count the caretaker Turchynov.) They have elected challengers, unseating incumbents who were running for re-election. They are accustomed to democracy, and will not settle for less. I don’t think Putin has the budget for the sort of Xinjiang-level police state it would require to govern Ukraine autocratically.
Another Scott
ICYMI, A.R. Moxon – No Beliefs, Just Intentions:
TheHill.com:
Good for the MOSC.
The poor, poor, Huckinses. Whatever will they do now?? I wonder if they’re looking into moving to Volgograd? But, then again…:
Unsurprisingly.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Brachiator: As I said in Adam’s thread last week(?) when he brought up the Hill article, nuclear non-proliferation is deader than Monty Python’s parrot. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 – what lesson can be learned from that?
I know Cheryl Rofer argues they didn’t have operational control, and she’s probably right, but the lesson is still there. What nation-state with a potential nuclear capability would be willing to give it up, in today’s world? It would be strategic malpractice.
TriassicSands
@Another Scott:
When I referred to “destroying Ukraine” that meant Russia wins the war, something that becomes far more likely if the perpetual Republican clown show refuses to provide aid. I think it follows that if Russia wins, Ukraine won’t be an independent country able to join NATO or anything else, except the roster of countries destroyed by war.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: The Saudis are well motivated to help solve this problem. It’s their neighborhood that’s being blown up.
They have also become tacit allies of Israel. In 2020, when Bahrain and the UAE normalized relations with Israel, observers assumed the two states would not have done this without Saudi aporoval.
Efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia were suspended when this war broke out, but the Saudis have let other nations know that the war will only postpone that plan. And despite public statements denouncing Israel’s brutal methods, it is widely believed that the Saudis want to see Hamas defeated and have said so privately.
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
RE: Am I the only one who thinks this is funny? Or at least fitting?
Trump is an ABBA fan? I thought he might be a secret Swiftie.
ETA. I would love it if Trump met his Waterloo early and in Iowa.
OGLiberal
@Geminid: This might be a very unpopular opinion – and this ship has sailed – but I would argue that if our strongest allies in the Middle East (or whatever you want to call it) were Israel, Egypt and Iran instead of Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and a bunch of patches of land populated by rich dudes and guest workers building resorts and giant skyscrapers, the world would be a much better place than it is today. Of course, that’s like asking for a flying pony, but that’s my firm belief.
Brachiator
@Gin & Tonic:
True. And concern about nukes always focuses on North Korea and Iran. No one would even consider asking Pakistan or India to give up their nuclear weapons.
OGLiberal
@Brachiator: Is there a font that allows you to make one of the “B”s backwards?
OGLiberal
@Brachiator: And Iran and NK don’t even have nukes. Maybe the ability to produce – almost everybody has that – but not actual weapons that can be used.
Harrison Wesley
@OGLiberal: The benefits of an American education. Bibi went to high school in the Philadelphia suburbs.
Another Scott
@OGLiberal:AᗺBA
There’s usually a way. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Feckless
“we” are not failing Ukraine, the treasonous GQP is.
That said, the allies gave Ukraine resources to make a break thru of the Russian defensive lines this summer.
Instead of concentrating those resources, they were shared equally along the entire front or defensively at Bakhmut and avdviika.
When the failure to break thru was mentioned to Ukraine, the response was “STFU and give us more $”. Well guess what? No more $.
Russia must be defeated…
but America has more homeless people than ever so try to convince a US citizen that the other side of the planet is more important than the fentanyl smoke at every bus stop. Yes Ukrainians are doing the dying, but if Ukraine won’t help their allies politically, all those deaths could be for nothing.
Brachiator
@OGLiberal:
I don’t think we have any allies in the region. Just strategic interests that change over time.
OGLiberal
@Another Scott: Fantastic!
RaflW
I don’t claim any originality, but by the end of the reign of idiocy that was 2016-20, it was fair to say “A world in which Trump is president is one where the U.S.’s standing in the world is diminished, where Iran and North Korea are emboldened, where China dominates the Indo-Pacific, where the Middle East becomes more unstable and where nuclear proliferation takes off, among allies as well as enemies.”
Certainly this will be true if he manages to re-take the WH. Not in any way to diminish how important passing a funding bill in January also is. That’s gotta happen first. But funding that fight with Putin is only one of many essential steps.
RaflW
Fiona Hill says we risk Putin (and other world leaders) seeing “that we no longer have a sense of national security, or of our role in international affairs” and, I’d say that yes, as far as the Republican Party is concerned — and given their ability to logjam us — they clearly don’t care one iota about nat sec or int’l affairs.
Sen. Potatotown’s obscene 11-month blockade of promotions made that clear. Sure, Lindsey Graham made some ineffectual noises about it. And a couple other older-school R senators. But far fewer than the 10 it would have take to actually do anything other than, maybe, whatever they finally did in the background. Eleven utterly reckless months later.
WaterGirl
@Feckless: Did you read this?
What do you say to Americans and members of Congress who feel like the money that we’re using to help Ukraine would be better spent right now at home?
Geminid
@OGLiberal: If these questions interest you, I suggest you read more about Israeli politics. Haaretz is a good place to start. They are paywalled, but the headlines and first paragraphs say a lot. The Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post are good also. They aren’t as anti-Netanyahu as Haaretz, but they provide good, neutral reporting, kind of like USA Today.
Barak Ravid and the other journalists he reposts are other good sources. So are Noga Tarnopolska(sp?) and Einat Wilf.
As as a young woman, Wilf worked on the Prime Minister Rabin’s team that negotiated the Oslo Accords. She writes and speaks extensively on Israeli/Arab relations.
As to Netanyahu’s popularity, recent polls show his coalition falling from 64 MKs to 48 if new elections were held. A poll a few weeks ago showed that only 4% of Jewish Israelis trusted the PM as a source for news on this war, compared to over 70% who thought the main IDF spokesman was trustworthy.
Now Netanyahu is trying to salvage his political position, but I don’t think he can. The statutory term for this government runs to 2026, but few Israelis believe he will survive the aftermath of this war and if he tries to drag it out he’ll just lose office that much sooner.
But one thing I keep in mind is that while the predominately Jewish opposition parties differ strongly with Netanuahu on other questions, they support this war. Yair Lapid heads the largest opposition party and is one of the PM’s most bitter critics, but he’s been lobbying members of Congress to hold off on calling for a ceasefire at this time.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic: Not a prediction but merely my answer to “how a Putin “win” is defined.” Think Vlad would take it and go back to his scheming tent to plan the next couple of treacheries, given his ’22 goal will not happen militarily.
As 2023 closes out it’s also worth asking what victory means for Ukraine? Pushing Russia back to the 2014 borders seems very remote.
gene108
@sab:
I like the quote and think it’s very insightful about the limits of isolation.
Also, I quoted Gildor the elf, not Frodo.
eversor
I’ve changed my mind on Putin. Given him Ukraine, as we are going to keep Christianity!
I also today destroyed the college fund for my nieces. Wives submit to husbands and if we are to be a Christian nation they need to know their fucking Jesus commaneded place. Not joking either. Educating women is not Christian and if we are going to have Christianity than they can get Christianity as well and do what men say. Like Jesus demands. Bitches, barefoot and pregnant and don’t talk back.
It feels good to give up the fight against Christianity. And I’m going to blow the money for their education on stuff for me. Like Jesus wants. If they don’t like it, they can go off and marry, like Jesus wants. But they must submit!
Omnes Omnibus
@Feckless: Everything didn’t go as you wished, so fuck ‘em? Feckless indeed.
TriassicSands
@TriassicSands:
I don’t know how the word subscribe got in there. It wasn’t my cat.
Ascribe. Sheesh.
OGLiberal
@WaterGirl: Also, this gets back to my earlier comment – the amount of money we give to other countries is almost a rounding error in our federal budget – we have the money to take care of the homeless….or could get it if we taxed rich people and corporations the way they should be taxed for the privilege of being able to be rich in this great country.
I’m not in a city but pretty darned close to NYC and in a very, very densely populated part of the state, with some very, very impoverished areas in walking distance. We have crime – including murders! – but I have not seen any noticeable increase in crime or homelessness in the area in years. Is all of this “homeless people/rampant crime apocalypse” unique to cities where a lot of white people live? (San Fran, Manhattan, etc?) Or are people just imagining/exaggerating it?
We do have a homeless camp behind one of our local shopping centers. Have never heard of any problems coming out of there. Not happy that these folks have to live under tarps in the woods but they aren’t bothering or hurting anybody.
Harrison Wesley
@eversor: Thanks for sharing
Brachiator
@Geminid:
Agree that these are often good sources.
Do you know if there are any good people or reporting to follow on either Bluesky or Mastodon?
ETA I have no problem in reading Twitter threads, but am distancing myself from the Musk rooms.
Geminid
@OGLiberal: I don’t like Saudi Arabia either, but like them or not they are a regional power. And I agree that Iran could be our best ally in the region (and Israel’s too for that matter), but not with the gang of murderers who are running the Islamic Republic.
And personally, I think that another Muslim country with an educated population of 85 million could be a good ally if we respected them more. That would be fellow Nato member Turkiye. US/Turkiish relations were rocky over the last decade, but Presidents Erdogan and Biden seem to have had a good meeting last July at the Vilnius Nato summit and may have cleared the air.
trollhattan
Hey everybody, Fat Leonard is comin’ home!
[whisper-whisper]
Hey everybody, Large Lad Leonard is comin’ home!
Weird back-door opening with Venezuela? What will Dark Brandon do next?
Another Scott
@eversor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjWebKavfuI (3:26)
Cheers,
Scott.
Old School
@Harrison Wesley: He seems to be escalating to try to provoke a response. Ignoring him seems to be working.
Harrison Wesley
@trollhattan: Hey,hey,hey,it’s Fat Leonard!
Geminid
@Brachiator: I don’t know Blue Sky or Mastodon, but Laura Rozen is on Blue Sky and she is a good aggregator of reliable sources.
OGLiberal
@Geminid: Thanks! I used to tap into Haaretz a lot pre-paywall. And I do realize that there is virtually no “left” in Israeli politics. I remember when Labor ran the show there – now, they have 4 seats in the Knesset. 4. I know they’d be blowing up shit in Gaza as well but maybe they wouldn’t have had to in the first place if they were in charge. Bibi isn’t really upset about this turn of events – keeps him in power and out of jail. And that’s what disgusts me….because all he cares about is himself.
Harrison Wesley
@Old School: I was just giving the response I learned in AA.
dm
Hey, @WaterGirl, check out this ad for the Democrat running for Senate in North Dakota :
https://nitter.net/AdamParkhomenko/status/1732418526437105873#m
Geminid
@OGLiberal: Qatar hosts a major US Air Force base, so they are allies in a sense. And their diplomatic efforts often serve the goal of stability. That’s better than just doing what the US wants, in my opinion; we’ve been better at breaking shit in the Middle East than fixing it.
And let’s show some love for Bahrain! They’ve hosted the US Navy for over 200 years now.
OGLiberal
@Geminid: Not a fan or Erdogan but definitely would prefer stronger alliances with countries like Turkiye or any alliance with Iran over Saudi Arabia. I do lay a lot of blame on the US and the UK for who rules Iran today – things could have been so much different/better if we played a different hand back in the 50s. That’s not to excuse the assholes in power there today but they wouldn’t have been in power if we weren’t so terrified of the Commies making Iran a client state.
trollhattan
@OGLiberal: Had a good deal of dread when Bibi emerged from the politically dead to regain office, forming a coalition with people to the fucking right of Bibi and Likud. (Like, this exists?!?) Then he went after the courts to make them too weak to punish him for his criming. Perfect conditions, too, for seizing more of the West Bank to create more ultra orthodox settlements and gain a permanent conservative majority.
His 10/7 siesta is icing on this shit pie, and I wonder whether they can be punished for their incompetence, or if it helps him like 9/11 guaranteed Bush a second term?
OGLiberal
@Geminid: Bahrain definitely more tolerable than Saudi Arabia but don’t they, like most of the Arabian peninsula countries, have a horrible track record when it comes to slave labor – er, I mean – guest workers? That said, I learned via this latest conflict in Israel that they – Israel – are also not so great when it comes to guest workers – because some of the hostages were/are Thai, Filipino, etc, and that opened the opportunity for folks to remind the world how shitty they are treated. (the US also isn’t so great on this front, either…maybe nobody is)
Alison Rose
@dm: That ad is awesome. LOL at the replies with people being like “omg wolves are actually nice animals tho”.
WaterGirl
WaterGirl
@TriassicSands: I can fix it.
OGLiberal
@trollhattan: “for seizing more of the West Bank to create more ultra orthodox settlements” I assume these people are very religious – not in a good way but they think they are doing god’s work. Like Bibi gives a shit about them or their religion. Kind of like some other asshole who used to run this country.
WaterGirl
@dm: She looks good! At first I thought she was talking about literal wolves, and was later going to make the connection to figurative wolves. I was wrong!
Weapon X
@WaterGirl: “My old man is a television repairman, he’s got this ultimate set of tools. I can fix it.”
WaterGirl
@Weapon X: Oh my god, I am the least handy person on earth when it comes to fixing physical things.
Burnspbesq
I hate hate hate the idea of Biden giving in to Republicans’ performative bullshit on “border security,” but if that’s what it takes to get Ukraine done, I’ll get over myself.
One good thing that is potentially coming out of this is the EU suspending Hungary’s voting rights to keep Orban from vetoing a Ukraine aid package.
Geminid
@OGLiberal: Meretz was the closest thing to an Israeli peace party, at least among the predominately Jewish parties. They came into this century with 12 MKs, but the suicide bombing campaign of the Second Intifada knocked the props from under the “Peace Camp.” Those bombings had a profound effect on Israeli politics, and were very harmful to the Palestinian cause in my opinion.
Meretz hung around 6 MKs afterwards, but in the last election they missed the 3.25% threshold for Knesset representation by 1 tenth of a point. Their 3.15% and Balad’s 2.85% of the votes were in effect lost and that’s what made Netanyahu’s majority possible.
The Meretz leader had asked Labor’s leader to run a joint slate, but Merav Michaeli refused. People are still mad about that, and polls* show Labor being blanked and Meretz winning 5-6 seats. So Labor, the dominant party through Israel’s first 25 years, may not be around much longer.
*There is no election yet in prospect, but polling in Israel is typically done as if there was one coming up.
WaterGirl
@Burnspbesq: I love seeing the good guys playing hardball.
And yes, I too hate the border bullshit, but maybe we can word the bill such that we can end up actually helping people at the border and not building a fucking wall.
Geminid
@OGLiberal: Do you know for a fact that the Thai guest workers were treated shittily by their Israeli employers? You may be projecting your animus towards Israelis in general on to the people running those Kibbutzes in southern Israel, who tended to be among the more progressive Israelis.
And while a thousands of Thai workers fled the country after Hamas murdered their compatriots, thousands more Thais have now traveled to Israel to take their places. They evidently consider these to be good jobs.
Quinerly
@Omnes Omnibus:
Ty Cobb, Trump’s former atty has your same concerns:
“The real key issue in this case is, is Trump an officer of the United States in the context in which that term is used in Article Three of the 14th Amendment,” Cobb explained. “And in 2010, Chief Justice Roberts explained in free enterprise that people don’t vote for officers of the United States.”
Cobb envisioned the Supreme Court taking the case and handling it “quickly.”
And he predicted a 9-0 ruling in Trump’s favor.
HUFF POST, CNN, USA reporting
cain
@WaterGirl: His journey to the dark side is complete. Eventually, he will turn into Sauron and forge the rings.
RevRick
@gene108: As Fiona Hill states, Trump wants to be the big honcho leader of the free world, but there won’t be a free world if we abandon Ukraine. In such a scenario, the world will be lucky if a good chunk of NATO hangs together. But as she rightly points out, without our rock solid guarantee of support from the United States, it becomes an every nation for itself. And in a world where we no longer have allies, we will probably have to reinstate the draft and double what we spend on defense. We will be a nation on a near permanent war footing. And we will be poorer for it.
Scout211
News from California: Link
ETA: Kounalakis has already declared her candidacy for Governor in 2026
kalakal
@WaterGirl:
Ah yes, voting for GOP, that well known hotbed of militant atheism. That’ll show the Christians.
Logic, who needs it?
Jackie
@WaterGirl: I caught a snippet of Jamie Raskin saying that LAST Dec 19th – when the J6 Committee gave their final report before turning all their findings and recommendations over to the DOJ.
I had to rewind to catch the date 12/19/2022.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: The Senators negotiating the border security package have been very tight-lipped about the substance of the potential deal. I bear in mind that President Biden called for $14 billion in border security funding, and Democrats like Ruben Gallego have said these initiatives are needed.
We probably won’t know which of Biden’s proposals survive and which Republican proposals are substituted until the deal (if there is one) is announced in January. One of my New Year’s resolutions is to not assign work to other people, but it’s still 2023 so I will suggest you do a post once the package is announced.
Spanky
@Quinerly:
My recollection is that the amendment was created to prevent the insurrectionists from the Civil War from being elected to office, but I guess I’m wrong again.
TriassicSands
@WaterGirl:
Thanks.
Quinerly
@Spanky:
I am not as up to speed on this as I should be. Havent closely followed the CO case. Heard Cobb talking in the background today while packing. Quick Google.
Brachiator
@RevRick:
Why would we have to reinstate the draft? Who would be out enemies?
Also, war footing without overseas allies and bases would be pointless.
Geminid
@OGLiberal: The immediate reaction of some Israelis to the October 7 massacres was outrage at how the IDF had been redeployed from southern Israel to the West Bank in order to protect the wildcat settlements in the Hebron Hills. That evening, Einat Wilf posted:
WaterGirl
@cain: Pretty ugly and spiteful.
wjca
The way I read it, the Colorado Supreme Court did NOT rule that TIFG participated in an insurrection. The trial court made that finding, and the Supreme Court didn’t disagree — appeals courts (including supreme courts) very rarely overturn trial court’s finding of facts.
Further, the appeal was not based on contesting that finding of fact. Trump appealed for other reasons, just not that one. (Which isn’t quite an admission. But close.)
WaterGirl
@Jackie: Only off by a year! But they said they saw him “on TV” so maybe that wasn’t it? [shrug]
Alison Rose
@Scout211: Love it. Even if it doesn’t end up sticking, I still love it.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: I laughed out loud!
I will do a post once we know what’s what.
japa21
@WaterGirl:
You mean the same Kellyanne who said COVID-19 was no big deal, after all we’ve dealt with it 18 times before?
VeniceRiley
@Nelle: Bless your pa. That’s horrible.
WaterGirl
T**** is a chaos agent, so no surprise that there is chaos in his wake. But finally, the waters he swims in are getting pretty choppy, so there’s that!
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Huge amount of arrogance / hubris / short-sightedness on the part of the Israel government who dismissed the warnings of the plans as out of hand.
Geminid
@kalakal: He may have been trying “own” the Jackals. But Jackals are free, and cannot be owned!
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Israeli leaders believed that their powerful air force would deter Hamas from launching an attack like the one on October 7. But they did not ask themselves, “What if Hamas chooses not to be deterred?”
If they had, they would not have left the border wall and communities adjacent to Gaza so lightly defended. The surprise on October 7 was not the problem. It was the lack of preparation.
Josie
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I agree. I think this is exactly what they will do. Actually, it may not be a bad bargain for us in the long run.
Subsole
@eversor:
My man, tantrums do not suit you.
wjca
Arguing that the Saudis are less bad than the Iranians is really a stretch. About the only thing they ever had to recommend them was lots of cheap oil.
And, once you get past the theocrats running both places, the Iranian people are a huge step up on the Saudis. Including repeatedly staging demonstrations against the worst excesses to their rulers. Never see anything like that in Saudi Arabia.
Bill Arnold
@Anyway:
Tax cuts for the wealthy is their primary purpose.
WaterGirl
@wjca: Except for murdering and chopping up journalists they don’t like, I’m sure the leaders of Saudi Arabia are very good people. (surely I don’t need the snark tag for that.)
wjca
@WaterGirl:
The leaders aside, the populations are very different. Possibly because one group has been civilized for millennia, while the other group was still nomadic camel herders just a couple of generations back.
Geminid
@wjca: Basically, I believe an Iranian is as good as a Saudi, and that a Turk, an Israeli or an American is no better or worse than either of them.
Political leadership is a different story. There, I look at the damage they do and the good they stifle. On this count, I rate the men who run the Islamic State of Iran lower than I do the Saudi leadership.
Geminid
@wjca: You had better not say that to the Nomadic Warriors for Pritzger!
Once the Khan’s Horde comes thundering out of Illinois, your district will fall into Pritzger’s hands like a warm bag of yogurt. You’ll be like, “Well, I always did admire the steppe warrior ethos.”
But it will be too late. I hope you like cleaning stables.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: There would be less support (certainly intensity of support) for an immediate & permanent ceasefire around the world if the IDF had not prosecuted the war in Gaza w/ such ferocious intensity & such disregard for losses of civilian life & damage to civilian infrastructure, & pretty strong evidence of war crimes & crimes against humanity. In the last UNSC vote the U.S. was the only one vote against the resolution for an immediate ceasefire, the UK abstained & everyone else voted for. In the last UNGA vote, tiny Pacific Island countries that are part of a formal U.S. sphere of influence make up more than half of the vote against an immediate ceasefire. Most of the U.S.’ allies & partners either abstained or voted for.
A call for immediate ceasefire is posturing, as it does not resolve the issue of Hamas’ control of the Gaza Strip, nor Israel’s blockade of Gaza, occupation of the West Bank, or gross mistreatment of Palestinians in both places. OTOH, I am not seeing much of a plan or proposal by Israel for the aftermath after Hamas is marginalized. For all of the intense political rivalry & distrust among the member a of the current War Cabinet, I do not detect much difference when it comes to prosecution of the war in Gaza, treatment of Palestinians, settlement expansion in the WB, or aversion to 2SS.
I think the problems in Israel go much deeper than the person of Bibi (or even the persons of his coalition partners), just like the problems w/ the U.S. much deeper than the person of Trump, the problems of Russia go much deeper than the person of Putin, & the problems of the PRC go much deeper than the person of Xi.
Subsole
@Geminid:
The ilKhan of the Eight Horizons, the Thunderbolt that Cleaves the Sky, the Stallion Who Leaves Ash in His Wake, speaks thus:
“The wise will stretch out their necks in supplication and spend their days handling fertilizer.
The fools will raise their fists in arrogance and spend their days as fertilizer.”
Glory to the ilKhan.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Iran has certainly been a more directly complicit in terrorist activities in the ME region, & its interventions in Iraq, Syria & Yemen have had devastating humanitarian consequences. OTOH, Saudi Arabia’ & the other Gulf States’ interventions in Syira, Yemen & Libya have also had devastating humanitarian consequences. I would further argue that Saudi Arabia is far more responsible for the spread of fundamentalism in Muslim communities across the world, through the spread of Salafism taught in madrassas funded w/ Saudi money. It may not be sin of commission, but certainly of omission. Then there is the Qatari funding of the Muslim Brotherhood organizations across the region.
Traditionally, mosques around the world were constructed to conform to local aesthetics. In the past few decades, Saudi money has created a boom in building mosques to Middle Eastern aesthetics (tall minarets & prominent domes), from SE Asia to even the PRC. There is nothing inherently wrong w/ that, in isolation, but it is an outward manifestation of the Saudi influence in Islamic ideology. Of course, the reactionary, well, reaction by CPC regime is to mandate tearing down the minarets & domes constructed since the 80s & replace them w/ gaudy pseudo-/faux-Chinese architectural elements.
I think the difference is that Saudi Arabia is part of the existing “international order”, & thus is motivated to preserve parts of the status quo, even as it seeks to revise others. Iran is a pariah state, & thus has no stake in the existing order & does not hesitate to undermine any & all aspects of it. The thing is, Iran is a largely pariah because the US has chosen to treat it as a pariah since 1979. There had been numerous opportunities before 2016 to chart a different course. Now Iran has fully become the insurgent state it was always accused of.
wjca
As individuals, sure. But the culture is a whole different thing.
wjca
Fortunately, Master Yang the Nauseating is an old friend, so I should be OK when the horde comes thru.
But when it comes to cleaning stables, been there done that. (Comes of growing up on a ranch.) Got no interest at all in doing it again. But I can’t say I don’t know how — which probably means I get a different low end job. (Pun definitely intended.)
Bill Arnold
@Omnes Omnibus:
Semi-serious (aka frivolous) question; how is the Commander In Chief not an officer?
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold:
The trial court tried to address this. 102 page .pdf:
It’s not a crazy decision for her court to take. But I think I find an earlier argument more compelling:
Lawyers are trained to be able to argue any side of any controversy. We’ll see what happens.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Feckless:
Ukraine was not given the weapons to “break through”.
Fuck off Commie/tankie/Vatnik/Putin Cock Sucker.
Bill Arnold
@OGLiberal:
972 Magazine leans left. Just keep in mind that it is somewhat fringe. (It seems to have good standards for accuracy.)
Chris Johnson
@zhena gogolia: Putin will die. Trump will die. Biden will die too but we’re Democrats and believe in collectivism and we’ve got loads of other people who are good.
These people don’t seem to understand they’re not gonna install gods. These are mortals and they’re under a lot of strain right now. Literally all these people are gonna die if you wait long enough, and so will all of us.
Forgetting that is one hell of a big mistake.
OGLiberal
@Geminid: You know what? I may be projecting generally shitty treatment of guest workers in the area on Israel. I read a couple articles about those in Israel being treated like crap but I, to my fault, didn’t read anything to the contrary. And, like I said, we – the US – aren’t very good on that front at all. Too much projecting..my bad.
I did note to my family that Hamas basically attacked a bunch of Israeli hippies. Kibbutzes? A desert rave? Not exactly AK toting settlers in the West Bank. Maybe that was the point? Hurt the ones mostly likely to be on your side? Monsters. And Bibi was fine with putting them in harm’s way, so…monster.
OGLiberal
@Geminid: Adding…I have no animus towards the Israeli people or Israel itself – I’m a Zionist. (not Jewish, not religious at all, but support a Jewish state – but not the version Bibi/the settlers want) I just despise Bibi because, in him, I see Trump, and that’s not good for anybody. I felt the same about that clown in the UK but he seemed to have much less power than Trump or Bibi so worried less about him. (and he’s gone, probably forever so, yeah, he was much less a risk)
WaterGirl
@Bill Arnold: That’s what I keep saying, too!