Forget the Cybertruck, US drivers need an affordable EV they can fall in love with in 2024, @liamdenning says https://t.co/DPX4VNadfr via @opinion
— Bloomberg (@business) December 28, 2023
Here’s some catnip for a select bunch of you jackals… Lots of charts & data, worth reading the whole thing: Bloomberg columnist Liam Denning says “Let’s Resolve to Ditch the $100,000 EV in 2024”:
When you’ve been speeding at 100 miles per hour, just slowing to the limit can feel like hitting a wall. That’s where the electric vehicles sector is ending 2023 and will likely stay through next year.
The bad vibes thrumming around EVs of late seemingly defy the data. Sales worldwide, including plug-in hybrids, were up by more than a third, year over year, through September. Roughly one in every five passenger vehicles sold in the third quarter was an EV, up from one-in-20 just three years before. EVs aren’t commonplace, especially here in the US, but they are no longer rare beasts either. You’ll find yellow Tesla Model 3 taxis and Ford Mustang Mach-E cop cars prowling the streets of New York.
Remarkable as that is, it is not enough. Most industries might kill for 38% growth but EV sales were rising at more than 100% less than two years ago…
Bloomberg NEF estimates 14 million EVs were sold worldwide this year, trailing the 18 million needed under its net-zero emissions scenario. More ominously, the latest estimate for 2024, 16.7 million, implies growth slowing further to 20% and trails Bloomberg NEF’s less ambitious emissions scenario too.
Growing by a fifth is still good. It just isn’t great. And this industry, along with the climate goals it underpins, needs great…
We are entering what might be dubbed a transitional year for the US vehicle transition. Tesla seems to be reaching saturation point for its older models and the Cybertruck, undoubtedly big, is unlikely to be the next big thing. Meanwhile, Detroit’s EV efforts to date recall the old joke about the restaurant with bad food and, worse, such small portions. The pool of drivers willing to pay a premium for EVs is inherently limited; the point of subsidies is to encourage the production at scale of a range of models at competitive prices and which also happen to be electric.
Getting there naturally takes time, especially with domestic content requirements layered on, and there are signs of progress, even if the fruits of that will arrive beyond 2024.
Even as Detroit struggles, foreign competitors like Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp. are launching well-regarded, and normal, if still pricey, electric models like the Ioniq series and the EV9. The decision by legacy automakers to sign onto Tesla’s charging network, while a tacit admission of failure, signaled an understanding that charging is an integral element of EVs, not just something other folks can figure out.
Ford’s plans to produce more plug-in hybrids is an interesting development, too. Plug-ins and range-extenders may offer a useful stepping stone toward full electrification given their ability to ease range anxiety more cheaply than a giant battery and tap into existing infrastructure, namely gas stations. Plus, a recent interview by MotorTrend of Doug Field, Ford’s EV chief, on the future of the “software defined vehicle” suggests that Detroit at least has a coherent vision of reinvention, even if the execution remains to be proven.
Such proof is vital. If part of the problem in the US is the narrow range of EV models, a parallel problem for the global industry is its narrow base of leaders.
The global autos industry, once a roughly $1 trillion market cap sector, is now valued at more than $2 trillion. Yet the EV portion of that is essentially just Tesla and China, with a few minnows like Rivian Automotive Inc. thrown in. The legacy side, including Detroit but also the giant firms of Europe, Japan, South Korea and China, represents another $1.35 trillion, and all the fixed assets, supply chains and branding that sit on top of that…
NotMax
Everybody wants to get into the act.
HumboldtBlue
It’s Friday night the week of Xmas and the New Year and youse wanna discuss electric automobiles.
Anybody got some music, some dancing?
Somebody needs to pass that spliff around.
HumboldtBlue
Short hair song.
mrmoshpotato
@HumboldtBlue: Feliz Navidad
Redshift
@HumboldtBlue: I think someone already did – it’s Thursday night.
HumboldtBlue
@Redshift:
Goddammit, it’s Friday somewhere.
Debbie(Aussie)
@HumboldtBlue:
here it is 18:25 Friday to be precise 🙂
HumboldtBlue
@Debbie(Aussie):
This is why we read this blog.
mrmoshpotato
@HumboldtBlue: It’s not Friday night yet anywhere in the US, bucko! 🎶Feliz NaviNO!🎶😁
Origuy
@mrmoshpotato: Guam (where America’s day begins) might disagree.
Burnspbesq
As the owner of an expensive EV that I wouldn’t trade for any currently available ICE car, let me inject some reality here.
The average price of a new passenger vehicle in the United States is right around $47-48K. There are plenty of EVs that can be had for that amount or less, including base model Tesla Model 3, VW ID.4, Ford F150 Lightning (if you can find a base model—Ford has deliberately made them scarce in order to steer buyers to higher-margin upscale versions), Hyundai Ioniq 5, and Kia EV6. Well-equipped Chevy Bolt EUVs can be had for around $35K. And if you shop carefully you can find plenty of certified pre-owned EVs for around $30k.
EVs are going to be more expensive than ICE cars for the foreseeable future, until advances in battery technology bring manufacturing costs down.
The relative handful of folks who splurge on Porsche Taycans, BMW i7s, and similar vehicles were going to splurge anyway. They don’t define the market. And if they were to splurge on a similarly-priced ICE car, it would be something like a S-class Mercedes or (my personal favorite) an Audi Rs6 Avant, which offer thrill-ride levels of performance at the cost of ridiculously high emissions.
lighten up, Frances.
hueyplong
As long as we’re working the pedantry angle, it’s “Francis,” unless you’re cleverly inserting a “Librulz are forcing sex changes on real Merkins” meme.
And if you are, tu salud.
lowtechcyclist
@Burnspbesq:
How much of that is passenger trucks, though? If we look just at family sedans, what do the numbers look like for those of us who aren’t willing to pay a small fortune for mobile penis extenders?
Burnspbesq
@lowtechcyclist:
You can still buy base-model Corollas, Civics, and Jettas for less then $30k if you can find them on dealers’ lots, but ask yourself whether you would expect to survive a crash with an F-350 Super Duty or a Suburban in one of those.
Americans don’t buy sedans any more. The more relevant comparison would be with small SUVs like CR-V, RAV4, VW Tiguan, Ford Escape, etc.
Matt McIrvin
@Burnspbesq:
I refuse, because if people ask themselves that we are doomed to never make progress on this front. (Unless the answer is to stop driving entirely.) The insanity needs to stop.
JR
@Burnspbesq: The Prius Prime is/was a 28-32K PHEV which came down even further with incentives. That’s a traditional brand with a good car. Toyota barely rolled out any of these though. The demand just wasn’t there.
I’m not a big fan of EVs existing predominantly as a class symbol or political statement, but generally that’s an issue with cars as a whole these days. The average price is floated by trucks, but it’s pretty clear that even people who can’t afford a big/fancy car are going in that direction.
lowtechcyclist
@Burnspbesq:
That’s like feeling a need to carry because so many other people carry. Fuck that shit in both cases.
JR
@lowtechcyclist: Agreed, fuck that noise.
ColoradoGuy
Hybrids still make a good halfway house, with the eventual battery replacement a small fraction of the price of an EV battery. For example, we replaced the battery on our 2008 Prius, with 145K miles on it, with a factory-fresh Toyota battery for $2800 installed. The new Toyota battery should be good for another 100K miles, taking our car to 245K.
Since the Toyota hybrid tech does not use a conventional automatic transmission, that works out about the same as an A/T replacement. The 2008 Prius has proved exceptionally reliable, and hybrids are widely available through the Toyota lineup.
Is Toyota dragging their feet on pure EVs? Absolutely, particularly compared to their Korean competitors. In the meantime, though, they offer a solid alternative to conventional ICE and EVs, and they have a wide selection of sedans, SUVs, and trucks. And the CO2 emission is half that of a conventional ICE car of the same weight and performance.
lowtechcyclist
@JR:
I get that any family would feel the need for one big, roomy, comfortable car that can carry a family and a bunch of stuff a long way in comfort.
But the second car – that’s the part I don’t get. There’s where one would think you really don’t need as much car, if you will. The second car, IME, just needs to be comfortable for one or two people on a daily commute and for errand-running and the like, and room for a couple of kids in the back for short hops. I don’t get why there isn’t a real market for relatively inexpensive second cars.
I’m not saying there is a hidden market here that’s not being satisfied by the auto industry; clearly there isn’t much of one. I just don’t get what it is in the American psyche that needs at least two upscale cars in the family.
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist:
Even that car doesn’t need to be anything like a giant truck. The kind of sedan currently called “midsize” or maybe even “compact” (but not “subcompact”) is probably fine.
AnonPhenom
Have American legacy car manufacturers gotten their Dealers on board with EVs yet or are they doing *Direct to Consumer* sales, like Tesla?
EireIAm
Here in Ireland, there are a lot of EVs that aren’t US built. Most of the European auto makers are doing EVs – both hybrid and plug in and even one that’s gas powered. The quote here just hand waved all of that away.
I even ran into what I think was a Ford Mustang plug in crossover SUV – the Mach-E which caused me a bit of a double take.
RevRick
@Burnspbesq: Our son is doing some serious research on EVs as he looks to purchase in the Spring. Last night, he showed us pictures of the Kia, the Ioniq, and the Polestar (Volvo). It’s just a matter of which one he’ll choose.
We need to remember that most new technologies start out as playthings for the rich. Automobiles were around for at least twenty years before they became a mass market in the US. Early color TVs weren’t cheap, nor were early PCs. People bitch and moan about how miserable air travel is nowadays, but the reason airports are crowded and planes are sardine cans is because flying is cheap. And now all of us carry around phones/cameras/calculators/gaming devices /camcorders/remote banking/social media/Balloon-Juice in our pockets.
OzarkHillbilly
Well, not all of us. ;-) Luddites unite!
Dorothy A. Winsor
Mr DAW recently ordered a Prius that he’ll have to wait several months for. He ordered all the safety features and the app that parks the car for you. Given that the parking garage is under our building (with narrow spaces and nasty cement pillars) and has no capacity for plug-in, a hybrid is a good bet for us.
Matt McIrvin
Anyway, I think the reason why the small second car market has dried up is that arms race for dominance on the roads–nobody wants to commute in a subcompact when everyone else is in a giant truck. You’ll get bullied, you won’t even be able to see, and in a collision you’re reduced to a smear on the other guy’s giant grill. But buying into that leads everyone to disaster.
I think someone here mentioned a survey about what people want in a car in which most people responded positively to wanting a vehicle that says “Watch out, I’m coming through!” That’s the bully motivation.
Geminid
@AnonPhenom: According to a Detroit Free Press article dated December 21, Ford says that about 50% of its dealers have declined to join Ford’s EV sales and servicing program for 2024. Presumably, more will opt in for 2025. The article indicated that most of Ford’s larger dealerships have joined the EV program.
Geo Wilcox
@Burnspbesq: I test drove every EV made that I could find. I LOVED the Chevy Blazer but was not willing to plunk down $65+ for the model I wanted (and the red interior option is just right the fuck out).
We bought the Chevy Bolt EUV and love it. I had an 2015 Suburban with less than 18K miles so we got a great trade in value and the $7500 tax credit will make it even better. Also the garage is now HUGE with Large Marge off site. Sparky fits so much better than she did (I name all my cars).
NotMax
@OzarkHillbilly
A boisterous yes to that.
New Deal democrat
As someone who looked at EVs, but just bought a hybrid RAV4 instead, let me offer a counterpoint.
The $8000 credit is against taxes. If you are retired or a lower income earner, and don’t typically owe Uncle Sam $8000 in April, you don’t get the full (or maybe not any) benefit of the credit.
There are still plenty of base to intermediate level compact and intermediate size sedans and compacts to be had under $40k.
If you don’t have nearby charging stations, you need to pay for the installation of a 240 volt line at your house (which may become obsolete in a few years).
The advertised range isn’t the real range, since it is recommended that you charge up to 80% from 30%. That means a 45 minute stop every 3 hours on your road trip to recharge.
Aside from the subcompact Chevy Bolt, the Ioniq 5 and 6 from Hyundai are the most reasonably priced alternatives, with fast charging available, but you’re still looking at about $50k.
Nobody knows what 3 or 5 or 8 year old batteries will really give you. The evidence from China is that used EVs sell at a steep discount because of that, or because they have become obsolete.
Plug ins are a close alternative, but are also relatively expensive, and you need to be sure your hotel on road trips has chargers in its parking lot.
The acceleration issue with hybrids has been thoroughly resolved. They typically sell for a $2-3k premium over strictly ICE models.
My verdict: EVs, if you qualify for the tax credit, make excellent 2nd cars in a two car family, perfect for local commutes and errands. If you are a one vehicle household, you probably need a crossover in order to lug stuff to and from the big box store. Sedan trunks simply don’t have big enough openings. And an EV isn’t a good match for that one vehicle, where a hybrid is excellent.
Toyota and the Korean manufacturers are transitioning fully to hybrids, then to plug ins, then to EVs as the technology improves. Every Toyota model is now offered as a hybrid. The full size Crown is *only* offered as a hybrid, and that is the direction Toyota is going.
raven
@New Deal democrat: We have a KIA Niro hybrid, a Chrysler Van and my 66 Chevy Truck!
PaulWartenberg
there needs to be greater government pressure put on US car manufacturers to build less expensive EVs in the sedan (and small sedan) sizes. Dear Chrysler, bring back the PT Cruiser with an EV engine (it could work, an EV engine takes up half the engine block space of a gas fuel car)
But the government – federal and state – need to do more to set up charging stations everywhere. My city finally started installing charging stations in various parts of the city – City Hall, my library, two of the community centers to the east and north of us – this past year. We need to expand the charging stations to interstate rest areas (and add such rest areas to the highway grid like Route 66 or US 441), county/state parks (or nearby), and other public service locales.
NotMax
@Geo Wilcox
That Blazer is problematic.
sab
@Burnspbesq: Maybe Texans don’t buy sedans anymore but Ohioans still do. And our Civics have all been in crashes, and everyone survived, including the Civics, which were repaired and still on the road.
Kias and Huyndais are losing popularity around here because they are so easy to steal and their companies won’t address the issue.
Matt McIrvin
@Geo Wilcox: I rented a Bolt when I took my daughter to visit RIT. I *loved* that little car. It reminded me of my old Fit (though it doesn’t have the same hauling capacity). I was dismayed to learn that GM already discontinued it.
Hertz is getting into electric vehicles in a big way, I think because they’ve realized they’re cheaper for them. Less maintenance, less total cost of ownership overall. They really push you to rent them now, with monetary incentives.
Of course I’m leery to rent them in any situation where I’m going to drive any significant distance, because I don’t know where the public chargers are in an unfamiliar place. But if I’m just going to be puttering around town for a few days, there’s always the option of just eating their bullshit recharging fee and not bothering with it.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Matt McIrvin: Yes the vehicle arms race is unfortunate. We have 2015 RAV4. Before that it was a Corolla but we have a dog and a kid and a grandparent living in our household now. That said I realized how much I missed the Corolla driving experience recently when I rented a compact sedan (forget which make and model but it was one step up in size from a Corolla) for a road trip because our RAV was in the shop.
I know “I miss the Corolla driving experience” is like the lamest car sentence ever written but the lower center of gravity makes the handling feel so much more precise. IMO sedans are just a joy to drive for that reason relative to trucks and SUVs.
Matt McIrvin
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: When I was looking to buy a car a couple of years ago I was test-driving hybrids, and my favorite of the bunch to drive was the hybrid Corolla. It’s a fantastic car, and it was also the cheapest car I test-drove. I nearly bought one but the supply-chain issues were hitting hard at the time–the dealer only had one and someone else snapped it up while I was dithering.
I ended up going the other way, and buying a hybrid Hyundai Sonata which was the biggest and most expensive of the cars I tested. It’s a great car and is more comfortable as a family car–lots of room in the back seat for my growing teenager. But it’s actually a little bigger than the size of car I really love driving (and parking).
Geminid
@PaulWartenberg: Regarding charging stations, there has been a lot of grumbling about the slow pace of the charger network funded by a ~$7 billion portion of the Infrastructure bill. The bill was passed in November of 2021, but as of 3 weeks ago none of the projected charging stations were operating yet.
That changed two weeks ago, when a Pilot truck stop near Columbus, Ohio put 4 stations into use. Pilot says it has opened up charging stations at over a dozen other truck stops; this is their first to be funded with Infrasture bill money.
Why the slow roll out? There was a long period of rulemaking and standard-setting, followed by a shorter application process. The latter part is conducted by states, and one reason Ohio came in “early” is that they had already started their program before the federal bill was passed. Charging station manufacturers also have to upgrade their units to meet federal standards in order to participate in the program.
So, maybe now we will see a lot more expansion of the charging network along the lines you mention.
lowtechcyclist
@New Deal democrat:
The correct phrase escapes me at the moment, but many tax credits can be fully taken even if they reduce your taxes to less than zero; in that case, the IRS sends you a check for the difference. Are you sure that’s not the case with the EV tax credit? It’s not like they wouldn’t have wanted low-income folks to be able to afford an EV too.
I suspect we may wind up buying a hybrid instead of an EV the next time we buy a car, unless the market moves fast. Our large, comfy car, a 2009 Accord, is the older of our two cars, and we figure it’s good for another 2-3 years before it starts having reliability issues and needs to be replaced. My more basic 2016 Civic stick shift only saw four years of daily commuting before the pandemic ended that, so it’s got a good chance of lasting until I reach the age where it’s time for me to stop driving altogether.
NotMax
@Matt McIrvin
Thought I read something different regarding Hertz recently. Took a bit to find it again.
Hertz pulls back on EV plans citing Tesla price cuts, high repair costs.
Victor Matheson
I have a Hyundai Kona EV. Definitely a compact but I can fit an upright bass in it and how many times do you haul lumber around. 240 mile range which is fine for commuting and some longer trips if you are smart. $32K new after rebates when I bought it in early 2021 just before the big COVID supply chain debacle for car sales.
It was relatively cheap to install a charger at home and I have chargers at work. The main problem on the road has not been lack of chargers. They are super easy to find using either google maps or the onboard computer.But there is a problem of instead a combination of broken chargers and assholes parking their piece of shit F-150s in the charging space making them impossible to use.
Matt McIrvin
@NotMax: Interesting. The EVs I’ve seen them renting out weren’t Teslas, they were Chevys and Volvos.
New Deal democrat
@lowtechcyclist:
I am not a tax accountant, but I understand that you only get the tax credit up to the amount you owe in taxes; you cannot use it to get a refund. I agree that it’s a stupid way to try to get lower income people to buy an EV.
Geminid
@Victor Matheson: One of the standards for chargers funded by the Infrastructure bill is that they be operational at least 97% of the time. To meet this standard, manufacturers have to produce more reliable chargers and also provide quicker servicing when they break down. We’ll likely have a good idea of how well this plan works out in a year or so.
Another Scott
@JR: We considered a Prius Prime to replace J’s 2000 Corolla this year. A few things made us say no: 1) Dealers didn’t have any. 2) Dealers wanted $5k over list just for a new Prius, not even the plug-in Prime. 3) It looks nice (a neighbor has a new one (non-plugin), but it’s huge (very long) and she wanted something small for easy parking in the city.
Instead we found a 2015 Prius C with less than 60,000 miles for $15k. I found a $10 app to use with a $40 ODB2 connector to check the traction battery – it’s fine. 50+ mpg (less when it’s cold). She loves it.
I like my Kia Niro PHEV SX Touring. I paid list for it – they wanted $3k over initially. I wish it were smaller though.
There’s lots of people who don’t SUVs or CUVs but can’t find anything smaller that fits their other wants/needs.
Cheers,
Scott.
twbrandt
I am currently driving a 2018 Ford Focus ST, which I love because it’s relatively small making it easy to park and fit in the garage, and because it’s a lot of fun to drive. I’m one of the those odd people who likes to drive a stick.
I’m eyeing the Ford hybrid Maverick as my next vehicle. It’s a sanely-sized pickup which makes it great for hauling lumber around for my woodworking hobby, it’s relatively inexpensive, seats 4 comfortably, and gets great mileage.
JML
@New Deal democrat: it depends on if it’s a credit versus a deduction. Credits are fully refundable, deductions are not. I’m not sure which one this is, as I’m not in the market for a new car (bought what I expect will be my last ICE car 3 years ago; I’m a 1 car household and the charging networks and charge times aren’t there yet for my longer trips, but I expect in 7-10 years when I’m in the market for a different vehicle the range/charging questions should be solved)
right now electrics are perfect as the second car for 2-car household. The electric is ideal for daily use, in-town errands and travel, and the ICE is there for backup and longer trips. My sister’s family has finally gone there and it’s excellent for them.
Another Scott
@New Deal democrat: @JML:
The IRS has all the details on the EV tax credit:
The credit also depends on new rules about US content and critical minerals to claim the full amount. More at the link.
[eta:] PHEVs qualify, in principle. My Kia doesn’t qualify – assembled in Korea.
https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/tax2023.shtml
Cheers,
Scott.
Anyway
@PaulWartenberg:
Where are you? The WaWas around here (PA/NJ/DE) have been adding EV chargers to their existing locations and many all-EV ones have opened up too. 2023 saw a huge jump in EV charging availability in this area. NJ Turnpike rest stops have had chargers for a while. IME most medium to large employers offer a few chargers at their sites.
Anyway
@Geo Wilcox:
Ha ha, love it! Nice name for the suburban …
New Deal democrat
@Another Scott: Thanks for the info.
JaneE
10 to 20 is 100% growth. Easy to do when you just start out. I seem to recall a story about a chessboard that shows how doubling up is difficult to maintain for any period of time.
In the eastern half of the country, you are rarely 200 miles from a decent outpost of civilization. Out west it is different. I routinely do 220 miles without a stop. I could stop and sometimes do, but mainly out of necessity. I can do that even when the gas gauge isn’t on full to start with. If I had to stop midway to top off an EV, it would add time that I prefer not to take. I really want to get rid of the travelling, but it takes time (and lots of trips) to do that.
Longer range and faster charging will be what it takes for me to switch to an EV, at least in the near term. Or a lot more money for a Lucid.
RaflW
FWIW, we rented a Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid at Thanksgiving. The electric-only range (though technically not selectable) was not amazing, but the combined electric+hybrid gasoline mpg was quite good. And with a level2, we could have done lots of our shorter errands mostly-electric.
And the driving experience was (for a 7 passenger, fairly deluxe van) pleasant. I mean, the handling was blobby, but the acceleration was much better than what I remember of my former bosses small V-6 Chrysler minivan of old.
A similar drivetrain in a midsize crossover would be, imo, a fairly winning offering.
Given our travel habits, a plugin hybrid is exactly what we want, minus the dumb waiting list we rejected for the RAV4.
soapdish
soapdish
“Sent from my iPhone.”
Miss Bianca
@New Deal democrat:
THIS. If it was just a straight-out rebate, I would consider it. As it is, I don’t qualify.
Man, do I miss my little Honda Civic hybrid, tho. (I wiped it out on black ice about 10 years ago, or I swear I would have it still. Just an awesome little ride. And NO PLUG-IN crap to deal with, either.)
Chris T.
@lowtechcyclist:
The magic word for this kind of tax credit is “refundable”, and … no, EV tax credits are not refundable.
What we need to solve the Huge Truck problem today is another gasoline price shock like the one in the 1970s. Of course that one caused a massive recession, so that could be a problem. Still, gasoline should cost $20/gallon.
WA state has “taken in too much money” with the increased gas tax and lawmakers are now looking at possibly sending some of it back to taxpayers. Unfortunately they’re thinking of sending it as a check based on the number of (gasoline?) automobiles a family owns: that’s the wrong way to do it, just send it to every individual as “here’s your gas-fund money”. Then raise the tax such that the pump price is $20/gallon and send everyone the additional cash thus raised. Don’t drive? Great! You get Free Money! Drive a hybrid? Great! You also get Free Money, with a bit of delay (so let’s make the gas-fund checks monthly perhaps). Drive a Monster Truck? Sucks to be you but that pain you feel at the pump, well, you’re getting a chunk of it back anyway and you need to feel that pain. You’re doing something bad and you should feel bad! Get rid of the monster vehicle and join civilization.
New Deal democrat
@RaflW:
True story from my buying experience:
Dealer: “This hybrid has only been on the lot 9 days…”
Me: “Wow! That’s a long time for one of those!”
Dealer: [startled] “Is your offer still good?”*
*I had to drive an hour away to find a dealer willing to negotiate off of MSRP.
Geminid
@Chris T.: I also want to see gasoline prices start to increase- but only after next years election!
I don’t think we need a shock though; just a steady 10% rise year over year. That should be enough to increase EV adoption at a good rate, and allow time to build out the charging infrastructure and the requisite growth in renewable electrical generating capacity.
Meanwhile, operators of large private fleets like UPS and Amazon know that higher fossil fuel costs are inevitable and are already in the process of transitioning their fleets to battery and hybrid. I think operators of smaller fleets will follow along. Both groups are motivated by the lower maintenance costs over the vehicles’ lifetimes, as well as savings on fuel.
Another Scott
@Chris T.: I think a big reason why pickups have gotten so large over the years is the up to $28,900 tax deduction available for vehicles over 6000 pounds GVW.
Someone sets up a cheap “business” as an LLC (Amazon keeps pestering me to get a business account with them). Voila! Giant tax deduction on buying a F-550 Super Duty or a Bentley Flying Spur W12 for “business”!! WooHoo!!
:-/
People respond to incentives. Change the incentives.
Grr…,
Scott.
BellyCat
A different spin here. If batteries were standardized, they could be hot swapped quickly and automatically, in less time than it takes to refuel an ice car.
This approach would allow rapid electric “refueling” to 100% utilize the existing gas station infrastructure without adding any parking — which is especially critical for dense and urban areas where there is not space for parking a car to recharge for 15-30+ minutes if traveling.
This would also eliminate the problem with battery ownership tied to the car and them “aging out” and devaluing the car. Think “rental exchange” like propane canisters for a grill. Fresh battery cartridges could be delivered in bulk and/or be recharged at each fuel center.
Getting fresh batteries would be like pulling into an automated car wash, position the wheels and rails lock the car into the proper place (and, in fact could include car washes as refueling stations). 100% automatic and one need not even get out of their car.
Another Scott
@BellyCat: There have been several attempts at battery swapping over the years, but they haven’t really gone anywhere. Some companies are still trying in Japan.
I think the industry is still too young for it to work except in small niches. Battery chemistry is changing, the heavy weight for decent range means that the battery pack needs to be built into the chassis design (and not just be a standard easily accessible box under the hood or trunk).
I think the industry sees high-voltage charging as the way to address the long charging time issue. 800V systems are available now (Kia, etc.). People are working on 1200V systems (and probably 1600V). Higher voltages mean faster charging for the same power level – double the voltage, halve the charging time.
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
daveNYC
Using the tax code to incentivize behavior or make things like child care affordable is such a kludge. I get the dysfunction that forces the USA to do it that way, but it’s just so damn inefficient. Needing to time your car purchase to Q1 so you can get your tax credit as soon as possible (assuming you qualify) is just so damn stupid. Never mind all the other stuff that basically requires the person to be rich enough so they can eat the up front cost until they get their tax rebate.
dnfree
@Matt McIrvin: Several years ago, I hit a deer going 70 miles an hour in a 2014 Cadillac ATS (a relatively small sedan), my husband’s car. There was enough damage to the car that it was almost but not quite totaled. It was repaired and we’re still driving it. The car was designed to absorb the impact and spare the occupants, and it did. We were completely unharmed, the airbags didn’t deploy, and we drove the car to the dealer.
At the time, my car was a small Ford C-Max hybrid. I loved it, and I got 40 mpg whether in town or on the highway. But I asked myself, “What if I had hit that deer in my C-Max?” The story would have been much different. I’m now driving a Mazda CX-5 with an excellent safety rating, and the deer accident (not my first, because of where we live) will remain prominent in my selection of cars.
EVs mostly are lightweight. I haven’t checked the safety ratings on the more affordable ones.
Matt McIrvin
@dnfree: EVs are usually heavier than similarly-built conventional cars just because of the batteries, which are massive–and they’re usually mounted low, which gives the cars a low center of gravity, good for maneuvering. But the rest of the car does have to be lightly built and the front crumple zone doesn’t include a massive engine.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: Tesla originally touted a battery-swapping program with their cars but if I recall correctly, they couldn’t make it work and the program’s alleged existence was something of a fraud played on the state.
dnfree
@lowtechcyclist: See my answer about crash survival.
dnfree
@Matt McIrvin: Thanks for the answer! I realize I wasn’t clear about the weight distribution.
Ironcity
@Matt McIrvin: Don’t believe the front engine is a crumple part, per se, though any mass up there between you and the deer can’t hurt (you, the deer is another story) .
My personal experience was hitting a decent size doe at 35-40 mph in a Chrysler minivan. Front bumper, grill, headlights and plastic parts destroyed, one fender crumpled, hood bent in half, windshield multi cracked. Radiator, A/C and transmission coolers and plumbing smashed. Body shop used a frame jig/straightener to correct modest bend in the steel in the body (these are all sheet metal unit body cars) and had it back on the road in a few weeks. I doubt the hybrid or EV versions of this vehicle would be any better or worse versus the deer. IIHS should have some data on this.
dnfree
@Ironcity: Around 2000 I hit two deer in my Ford Windstar, also at rural highway speed, probably around 65 mph. That vehicle also was drivable back to town, the airbag deployed (“What’s that smell?” was my first reaction), and the vehicle was repairable.
BruceJ
@Matt McIrvin: This is why I am keeping my cheater diesel (has been fixed; I got refunded ~⅓ the price I paid for it, too) Jetta Sportwagen (which was our replacement for our ancient and decrepit Honda Civic wagon ) and waiting VERY impatiently for VW to get off it’s ass and start selling the iD Buzz already.
Dan B
@Geminid: 97% would be a great standard for chargers. When we first leased our new 85 mile range Nissan Leaf it was fun to check where the chargers were and which ones were open and working. That information is no longer available. Why? Probably because there is no regulation and / or not enough regulators. We ho to the ocean every year and stopped at a charger in Olympia, a bit more than halfway. It had a Taco truck. It was never out of order. I bet the Taco truck got in touch with the charger folks tout de suite because it’s not a good feeling to arrive at the truck hungry and discover your 30 minute stop wasn’t going to result in a full battery.
brantl
@twbrandt: I didn’t know there was another woodworker on the site, what sort of things do you make?
brantl
@BellyCat: I have been saying this since they made the first Prius. Nice to hear it from someone else..
BellyCat
@brantl: Like minds and all!
It’s the only sensible longterm solution for any battery powered device, but this would require cooperation among all manufacturers (never going to happen) or regulation (unlikely in the near future).
I owned the first commercially available hybrid (Honda Insight — great little car!). Battery replacement is inevitable for ALL electric vehicles. My replacement was $4k(!), done after 7 years.
Until one pays to replace their batteries, they more than likely don’t fully grok the life cycle implications of large battery powered vehicles.