I’m still playing catch up from yesterday, so I’m just going to cover the basics again tonight.

Before we dive into the personnel change, I want to highlight this important news:

+100 Ukrainian troops are coming back home from Russian captivity.
Most of them are the defenders of Mariupol.
Pictured still dressed in Russian prison suits. pic.twitter.com/TYM8DFk5po

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 8, 2024

Also, just a quick point to make sure everyone is tracking: the vote today in the Senate was only to open debate. It is not the cloture vote that allows for the simple majority vote for passage.

When we began the year in Seminar 12 at US Army War College among the other things we’d do on the first day was give the students the senior leader college (SLC) short course.

• Strategy is about developing ways and means to achieve your ends
• Personalities matter, relationships matter
• Personnel are policy
• Budgets are policy
• Policy cannot ask of strategy that which policy cannot or will not provide – achievable ends

Congratulations you are all now qualified to run an army!

Whatever the actual relationship between President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi, the former has decided to work within that third bullet point and make a change in commanders.

I met with General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
I thanked him for the two years of defending Ukraine.
We discussed the renewal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine require.
We also discussed who could be part of the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The time for such a renewal… pic.twitter.com/tMnUEZ3BCX

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 8, 2024

I met with General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
I thanked him for the two years of defending Ukraine.
We discussed the renewal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine require.
We also discussed who could be part of the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The time for such a renewal is now.
I proposed to General Zaluzhnyi to remain part of the team.
We will definitely win!
Glory to Ukraine!

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

 

Today President Zelenskyy has appointed a new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – Oleksandr Syrskyi. He will replace Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

Thankful to General Zaluzhnyi for his work. Wishing General Syrskyi new victories. pic.twitter.com/OV78UnOv9r

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) February 8, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Starting today, a new management team takes over the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

8 February 2024 – 18:38

Dear Ukrainians!

Today I met with Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

This was one of hundreds of conversations we had during this war. Almost two years of continuous analysis of each situation.

We discussed the frontline. Threats, directions, all the challenges. Avdiivka – the extraordinary actions of our warriors and the extraordinary difficulties in defending the city. The Zaporizhzhia direction. A very tough one. Southern directions. Challenges of the Kharkiv region. And our capabilities. Ukraine’s capabilities this year. During the third year of the full-scale war.

We must make this year a crucial one. Crucial for achieving Ukraine’s goals in the war. Russia cannot simply accept the existence of an independent Ukraine – the very fact of our country’s independent life. But Russia will have to come to terms with our strength.

The experience of two years of this war has convinced us that it is only Russia’s defeats that bring peace closer.

Each year of this war has its own nature.

We withstood the first year. We started to reclaim our ground. We proved to the world that Russia can lose. In the second year of this war, we won the Black Sea. We won the winter. We proved that we can regain control of the Ukrainian sky. But, unfortunately, we failed to achieve the goals of our state on land.

We have to be honest – the feeling of stagnation specifically in the southern directions and the difficulties in the battles in the Donetsk region have affected the public mood. Ukrainians are speaking of victory less often. However, the Ukrainian spirit has not lost faith in victory. Ukraine retains its historic chance. It is our duty to realize it.

This year should be the time of Ukraine – the time when every Ukrainian warrior will know, as before, that the Ukrainian state and the Ukrainian army are capable of winning.

I am grateful to General Zaluzhnyi for two years of defense. I am grateful for every victory we have achieved together and thanks to all Ukrainian warriors who heroically bear the brunt of this war.

Today we had a frank discussion about the changes needed in the army. Urgent changes.

I offered General Zaluzhnyi to continue to be part of the Ukrainian state team. I would be grateful for his consent.

Today I have decided to renew the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This is not about surnames. And certainly not about politics. This is about the system of our army, about management in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and about attracting the experience of battlefield commanders of this war. Every soldier, every sergeant, and every officer who sees the frontline understands what decisions are needed. The army’s actions must become much more technologically advanced. The generalship must be reset. Headquarters at all levels must know and feel the frontline just like soldiers at the forefront.

The battlefield commanders of this war, the commanders from the forefront must realize their special experience at the level of the entire army – in leadership positions.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces are now almost a million people who were called up to defend our country. As of today, the majority of them have not felt the frontline in the same way as the minority who are actually at the forefront, actually fighting.

This means that we need a different approach to rotations in particular. A different approach to frontline management. A different approach to mobilization and recruitment.

All this will give more respect to the soldier. And restore clarity to actions in the war.

Fellow Ukrainians!

Starting today, a new management team takes over the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

I want our warriors in Robotyne or Avdiivka, the General Staff and the Staff to have the same vision of the war.

Everyone whose experience will now serve the renewal of the Armed Forces is being carefully selected.

I have had dozens of conversations with commanders of various levels. In particular, today I spoke with Brigadier Generals Andriy Hnatov, Mykhailo Drapatyi, Ihor Skibiuk, and Colonels Pavlo Pallisa and Vadym Sukharevskyi.

All of them are being considered for leadership positions in the army. And they will serve under the leadership of the most experienced Ukrainian commander, the battlefield commander, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi. He has successful experience in defense – he led the Kyiv defense operation. He also has a successful experience of the offensive – the Kharkiv liberation operation. I have appointed Colonel General Syrskyi as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Today I spoke with Generals Moysiuk and Zabrodskyi. Their experience will serve the country.

I expect the following changes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the near future:

A realistic, detailed action plan for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 2024 must be presented. It must take into account the real situation on the battlefield now and the prospects.

Each combat brigade on the first line must receive effective Western weapons, and there must be a fair redistribution of such weapons in favor of the first line.

The logistics problems must be resolved. Avdiivka must not wait for the generals to find out which warehouses the drones are stuck in.

Every general must know the front. If a general does not know the front, he does not serve Ukraine.

The excessive and unjustified number of personnel in the headquarters must be adjusted.

An effective rotation system must be established in the army. The experience of certain combat brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and units of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, where such a system is in place, can be used as a basis. Rotations are a must.

There is an obvious need to improve the quality of training for the warriors – only trained soldiers can be on the front line.

A new type of forces is being created in the structure of the Armed Forces – the Unmanned Systems Forces. The first commander is to be appointed.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi will present the team for resetting the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming days.

The year 2024 can be a successful one for Ukraine only if effective changes are made in the core of our defense, which is the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We are all proud of our army. And we must do everything in our power to make the Ukrainian army a victorious army.

I thank each and every person who believes in Ukraine, fights for Ukraine, works for our victory, and helps – helps Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

General Valerii Zaluzhnyi had one of the most difficult tasks: to lead the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the full-scale war with russia.

I am sincerely grateful to General Zaluzhnyi for all his achievements and victories. pic.twitter.com/B46mMb0kck

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) February 8, 2024

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi is the new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It is a great honor and a great responsibility to lead the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

We have only one task: the Victory of Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/JsVHxmmskv

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) February 8, 2024

Some of you may be surprised that Colonel-General Syrskyi was promoted and not Lieutenant General Budanov who is known to be close to President Zelenskyy. I think there are two major reason for this. The first is that LTG Budanov is very effective in his current job. And a good chunk of that is not waging war against Russia in Ukraine, but waging war against Russia in Russia. The second is that the Ukrainians have learned and are continuing to learn the hard painful lesson that the US, despite liking to claim it is the indispensable nation, tends to not be around when others need it to be indispensable. As such, the Ukrainians are now preparing for a much longer war, which means that just as General Zaluzhnyi was sucessful for the first two years, even should Colonel General Syrskyi also be successful, there will likely need to be another change at some point.

Here is LTG (ret) Hertling’s take on today’s announcement. Full disclosure: I know LTG Hertling, though I was never assigned as his senior advisor, and am in occasional contact with him.

First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

Many US media outlets proclaiming "Zelenskyy sacks Zaluzhnyi" or "Zaluzhnyi fired!"

I don't see it that way.

Allow me to provide some context. A 🧵

1/ https://t.co/34WJQBFHpA

— MarkHertling (@MarkHertling) February 8, 2024

GEN Zaluzhnyi is 51 y.o., extremely young for a Commander of any nation’s Armed Forces. Most 4-star generals are in their 60’s with much more experience.

Since Feb ’22 he’s been the tactical, opn’l & strategic leader of the toughest fight we’ve seen in the 21st century. 2/

Here’s what I mean by “tactical, opn’l, strategic” commander:

1. He commands the 2000+ mile tactical front
2. He coordinates each battles into an operational campaign plan
3. He “plays” in the strategic arena with his nation’s leaders & over 50 supporting nations. 3/

But that’s not all:

1. He started this war without a fully modernized army, as part of a defensive fight…and incorporated hundreds of new pieces of equipment as the UAF modernized
2. He had to ensure the logistics support of all that new “stuff.”
4/

He’s had to find ways to train his forces – from privates to generals – into the kind of modern fight he has been facing, while simultaneously determining how he could fight effectively with a bevy of modern weapon systems. 5/

He’s dealt with various personalities and unique nationalities as NATO and the US came together to help him, some offering things he needed, some holding back on things he desperately wanted. 6/

Truthfully, he came into this invasion as an inexperienced and untrained senior level commander, and he carried himself as a leader of a great army and an emerging nation.

But – and there’s always a but – he likely is physically, emotionally, and intellectually exhausted. 7/

Commanders of forces get a few hours sleep each night, and continuously face problems with no solutions.

But he has been masterful in his performance over the last 2+ years, and he’ll be studied as a great military leader who excelled during a time of crisis. 8/

God bless you, General.

It’s time for a new commander to take the reins. It’s a good call to get some new blood into this next phase of the campaign. 9/

Eliot Cohen provides some historical perspective at The Atlantic:

On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he was removing General Valerii Zaluzhny from command of the military, and promoting General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of the ground forces, to replace him. Predictably and understandably, there has already been a great deal of hand-wringing about Ukraine’s president cashiering his top general. Such concern is misplaced, not merely because it may be misinformed, but because it bespeaks a misunderstanding of sound civil-military relations.

Begin with what is actually known rather than rumored or surmised about the president and his general: that there has been tension for some time, possibly for as long as a year now. This rules out one possibility, which is that the dismissal reflects a major dispute about manpower, and specifically about conscription. In fact, Ukraine already has male conscription. There are real questions about mobilization and whether to call up those who have already served or who are currently exempt, but this debate seems to be more recent than the tension between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. Moreover, such decisions—involving the delicate balance among military needs, economic and defense-industrial requirements, and domestic political stability—need to rest in the hands of civilians, as was the case in the United States during the world wars, through the Selective Service System.

That leaves two other possibilities. The first is a personal clash. Differences of personality and style, compounded by minor political intrigues in the president’s inner circle, might have produced a split. Or Zaluzhny might have, or be suspected of having, political aspirations. The other is a substantive disagreement. Zelensky might have lost confidence in Zaluzhny as the commander in chief of the armed forces.

Some historical perspective is helpful here. Only the terminally naive think that politics, including the petty politics of jostling for position and influence, stops in wartime. During the Second World War, Franklin D. Roosevelt worried about General Douglas MacArthur as a potential rival for the American presidency, as did Harry Truman, and General George C. Marshall, the Army chief of staff, kept trying, unsuccessfully, to work his way around Admiral William Leahy, FDR’s chief of staff. Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion’s advisers, including some in the military, kept trying to rein him in during Israel’s War of Independence, until he flummoxed them all by resigning shortly before a key truce expired. They caved, and he rescinded the resignation.

There is an inevitable imbalance in the stature of civilian and military leaders during wartime. Democracies fall in love with their generals; they rarely feel the same way about the civilian to whom the general reports. Generals usually look the part, and that is definitely the case with Zaluzhny, a big, calm, warm but tough-looking soldier: exactly the person you want in charge when Kinzhal and Kalibr missiles are raining down and the Russians are approaching the gates of Kyiv. Burly guys with short haircuts in battle dress always look better in this context than slender former actors in T-shirts or pullovers.

By contrast, civilian politicians usually find their real place in people’s hearts after the war is over. During the war itself, their business is not commanding troops but sitting behind a desk and moving paper, chairing interminable meetings, giving speeches, walking around the streets, occasionally ducking shells at the front, and cutting deals. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill faced a no-confidence vote during the summer of 1942 after the fall of Tobruk, and though the vote failed, it was not for lack of trying by his opponents, including some in uniform.

The best historical analogy to contemplate in this case may be the American Civil War. It, too, was an existential crisis; it involved the creation of new, mass armies and tools of warfare that were unfamiliar to older officers. It took place on the threshold of the nation’s capital, which was endangered more than once. And it involved the leadership of a gangly man who did not look particularly good in his awkwardly fitting black suit, Abraham Lincoln.

Those who think it wrong to change horses midstream should consider Lincoln’s repeated firing of the commanders of the Army of the Potomac. The title of one famous book about the period is, appropriately, Lincoln Finds a General. As in the case of Zelensky and Zaluzhny, there was occasionally an outcry, and none greater than when the president dismissed Major General George McClellan, the commander of the Army of the Potomac, not once, but twice—the last time after what was arguably a victory at Antietam in 1862.

That episode is instructive. Lincoln appreciated McClellan’s truly brilliant work as an organizer and a trainer: Indeed, that was his greatest contribution to the ultimate Union victory, the creation of an army that could repeatedly engage the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia, which was under the brilliant field leadership of Robert E. Lee. But McClellan could not see the war as Lincoln did, and could not adjust to the strategy that was needed, of pursuing a relentless war of attrition against the numerically inferior Confederates at the cost of the lives of many Union men. Lincoln lost confidence in him and sacked him, as he would others.

In the current case, there is no question that General Zaluzhny was a superb leader in the opening phase of the war. He oversaw military preparations in January and February of 2022 that minimized the impact of Russia’s initial assault. In a display of the common sense that is a characteristic of great military leaders, he gave his subordinates maximum discretion in the opening battles of the war. And in the ensuing counterattacks, particularly in the Kharkiv region, he gave Syrsky, his former superior, the support to conduct a successful attack.

Where it is not clear that Zaluzhny has succeeded is in the ensuing phase of the counteroffensive. Even if some of the fault for the unsatisfactory results lies with the dilatory Western supply of advanced weapons to Ukraine, some of it surely rests on the high command. Moreover, in the past six months, Ukraine’s innovativeness, at least in ground warfare, which far exceeded Russia’s in the first 18 months of the war, seems to have also sputtered. It may be this, and the lack of a convincing plan for victory, that has undermined the relationship between president and general.

Whether Zaluzhny has political aspirations is unclear, although it is odd and at least imprudent that he has now published two articles, one in The Economist and another on CNN’s website, about the future of Ukraine’s strategy. This is not something a commanding general usually does or should do.

Ukraine’s command system is still evolving from the Soviet model; it has a military commander in chief (in the United States, that is the president) rather than a chairman of a joint staff or a chief of the general staff. But no matter: President Zelensky is, and must be, in charge.

Much more at the link.

News of Syrsky’s appointment as top general caused uproar among the ranks of Ukraine’s military, with many soldiers expressing their dismay. Many say he has callously thrown away troops. Some have dubbed him “the butcher”. “We are all screwed,” said one. https://t.co/r0unobXsG0

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 8, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Oleksandr Syrsky, appointed on Thursday as top commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, is credited with some of the most important battlefield successes since Russia’s full-scale invasion began, but is also associated with perhaps its biggest mistake — the costly defence of Bakhmut.

Born in 1965 in Vladimir, east of Moscow, Syrsky trained at the Higher Military Command School in the Russian capital — the Soviet equivalent of Sandhurst or West Point — and served in the army’s artillery corps.

Syrsky moved to Ukraine in the 1980s. Following the country’s independence, he rose through the ranks of the Ukrainian army and led forces that fought against Russian troops at the decisive battle of Debaltseve in 2015, nearly a year into the war between the two sides in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s defeat in Debaltseve led to a ceasefire deal that benefited Moscow and solidified its grip over the Donbas, giving it to time to prepare for its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

However, despite losing the battle, Syrsky was awarded Ukraine’s Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, given to military personnel for “exceptional duty in defence of state sovereignty and state security”. And in 2019 he was put in charge of Ukraine’s entire ground forces, overseeing its operation in the Donbas.

Many analysts and Ukrainian soldiers say his tactical approach draws on his Soviet military training and believe his appointment is unlikely to bring the new approach that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has in mind in replacing General Valeriy Zaluzhny, even though some have privately criticised the latter for being slow to adapt to the ever-changing realities of the war with Russia.

Syrsky is credited with some of Ukraine’s biggest military successes since Moscow’s full-scale invasion, such as repelling Russian forces from around Kyiv in March 2022 and the liberation of vast swaths of the north-east of the country in a lightning offensive in the autumn of that year. He was often pictured alongside Zelenskyy during presidential visits to freshly liberated towns, a sign of the close working relationship between the two men.

But while in charge of ground forces during the bloody 10-month battle for Bakhmut in 2022-23, Syrsky made decisions that led to heavy casualties and the decimation of some of Ukraine’s most experienced brigades, soldiers on the frontline told the Financial Times at the time. They said Syrsky should have ordered a tactical withdrawal of forces from the city months before Russia captured it. Those troops as well as some analysts argue such a move could have reserved battle-hardened forces for use in a counteroffensive in 2023.

While Syrsky has touted several successes around Bakhmut, none of them have actually materialised, and some territory that had been retaken after Russia’s seizure of the city has since been lost again.

Ukrainian troops and western officials speaking on condition of anonymity told the FT that Syrsky’s appointment as top commander bodes ill for the war. Soldiers who have criticised him in interviews say that he has callously thrown away troops. Some have dubbed him “the butcher”.

News of Syrsky’s appointment on Thursday caused uproar among the ranks of Ukraine’s military, with many soldiers expressing their dismay in private chat groups and publicly on social media.

“We are all screwed,” wrote a soldier on X, adding this was the sentiment among troops in a private chat group “who went through all stages of the defence of Bakhmut with Syrsky”.

“General Syrsky’s leadership is bankrupt, his presence or orders coming from his name are demoralising, and he undermines trust in the command in general,” said a Ukrainian reserve officer who runs Frontelligence Insight, an open-source research group with close ties to the military.

“His relentless pursuit of tactical gains constantly depletes our valuable human resources, resulting in tactical advances such as capturing tree lines or small villages, with no operational goals in mind,” he added.

Syrsky has said that “the army is outside of politics”. But he is seen as closely associated with Zelenskyy and politically connected — but without the charisma of Zaluzhny.

Some western officials involved in Ukrainian policy and analysts who advise Washington have privately expressed misgivings about Syrsky’s decision-making since Russia’s full-scale invasion and concerns over his ability to resist political interference in operational matters.

People close to Ukraine’s general staff said it was entirely legitimate for Zelenskyy to want to change strategy and military leadership after last summer’s failed counteroffensive against Russian forces.

The president, who this week described the war as having reached a stalemate, also said he was planning military command changes as part of a wider government shake-up. Zelenskyy said on Thursday he had met with several brigade generals who are being considered “for army leadership positions, and they will be led by Ukraine’s most experienced commander” — a reference to Syrsky.

Much more at the link.

The cost:

Guys, yes, he was a Su-25 pilot, or course – just a typo from me touch-typing on my iPhone (not sure what you think about it, but uncomfortable keyboards are what I hate about iPhones)

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 8, 2024

Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky,
Be with them always in the air,
In dark’ning storms or sunlight fair.
O, Hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air.

Avdiivka:

+1 russian helicopter destroyed

Our warriors shot down the Ka-52 "Alligator" with the use of the man-portable air-defense system on the Avdiivka axis.

russian Alligator: born to crawl—cannot fly. pic.twitter.com/4OFvVGmmlx

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 8, 2024

Mariupol:

“Cemetery imagery shows at least 8,000 people died from fighting or war-related causes [in Mariupol in 2022.]The total number of dead may be significantly higher: some graves contained multiple bodies and the remains of others were most likely buried in rubble.” https://t.co/9PTAx0QZNG

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) February 8, 2024

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Destruction of Russian 9A310M1-2 of the Buk-M1-2 air defense system, Donetsk region.https://t.co/ZOFmv7khdw pic.twitter.com/c8RmYvchXB

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 8, 2024

Moscow:

Moscow – huge fire engulfed several residential buildings near "Aeroport" metro station. Dozens of firefighting vehicles are involved, while the roof started collapsing. pic.twitter.com/RBoMQ95nHM

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 8, 2024

Krasnodar Krai:

You won’t believe it but another oil refinery in Russia is on fire

Ilskiy refinery, Krasnodar Krai, SMO zone. pic.twitter.com/oOXxVS0cJP

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 9, 2024

Kueda, Perm Oblast, Russia:

/2. Location of the village of Kueda. pic.twitter.com/05WMAtQNO6

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 8, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

True friendship.

📷: 126th @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/wU1iTI5mY1

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 8, 2024

Thank you, Valeryi Zaluzhnyi ❤️

You may know that till today, he was commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine @CinC_AFU

A great man, a brave soldier, and an incredible patriot of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/0HJrXPhQjg

— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 8, 2024

Open thread!