It’s been nearly a month since President Biden has spoken with Bibi.
After months of Biden pushing Bibi in private, President Biden has now drawn a red line in public. When questioned about it, Bibi responds with this:
I have a red line,” he said. “You know what the red line is? That October 7 doesn’t happen again. Never happens again.”‘
I can’t decide whether to think he avoided answering because he has no good answer, or he did answer by saying he believes what happened on Oct 7 gives him license to destroy anyone and anything he pleases. Either way, Bibi avoided actually addressing the issue of what happens if he crosses the stated red line of the President of the United States.
Historically, it seems like presidents don’t want to publicly define exactly what their red line is, because that can leave them in the position of having to take an action – there’s really no wiggle room to a red line.
I don’t think, though, that Biden said that in a pique that he later regretted. I think this was a very deliberate decision on Biden’s part, and you’ll notice he didn’t walk it back after he was “caught” on the hot mic. Obviously no one knows exactly what might happen, but it seems to me that Biden has laid things out clearly. If you do X, I will do Y. So when Bibi does X, and <s>Bibi</s.> Biden does Y, it’s Bibi who is responsible for Y happening, and he bears the consequences.
I think that allows Biden to change course in the UN, with changes to whether weapons go to Israel, without President Biden looking weak. In fact, to me, it seems that Biden would come away looking stronger.
Excerpts from an article by Barak Ravid.
President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid out contradictory “red lines” about the war in Gaza in recent days that could put them on a collision course if Israel invades Rafah in southern Gaza in the next few weeks, three U.S. officials told Axios.
Why it matters: U.S. officials say an Israeli military operation in Rafah would likely lead to a significant shift in U.S. policy — including an end to the defense of Israel at the United Nations and restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons by Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza.
- Netanyahu has effectively said his red line is that Israel must go into Rafah.
- More than one million Palestinian civilians, many of them displaced by the war, are sheltering in Rafah.
Driving the news: In an interview on Saturday, Biden was asked whether an Israeli military operation in Rafah was a red line for the administration. “Yes it is,” Biden replied.
- Biden had earlier raised concerns about an Israeli operation in the city and demanded Netanyahu present a credible and implementable plan for protecting civilians there, but this was the first time he referred to an invasion as a red line.
- A day later, Netanyahu pushed back in an interview. “We’ll go there [to Rafah]. I have a red line,” he said. “You know what the red line is? That October 7 doesn’t happen again. Never happens again.”‘
Behind the scenes: Biden and Netanyahu haven’t spoken since Feb. 15. In their last call, Biden expressed concern about a possible Israeli operation in Rafah, the White House said.
- There have been several discussions inside the administration in recent weeks about a possible Israeli military operation in Rafah and the bottom line was that the Biden administration can’t allow it to happen, U.S. officials told Axios.
- The administration doesn’t believe Israel can implement an evacuation plan for Palestinians from Rafah in a way that will prevent mass civilian casualties.
No decisions have been made about how the U.S. would respond to an Israeli operation in Rafah, but two U.S. officials said one of the options discussed internally between the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon is to impose restrictions on the use of U.S.-made offensive weapons by the IDF in Gaza.
- A third U.S. official said it is likely that an Israeli operation in Rafah will lead to the U.S. allowing a UN security council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire to pass. The U.S. has vetoed resolutions brought to the security council three timessince the beginning of the war.
- “If Netanyahu decides to defy Biden and go for such an operation it will be a showdown,” a senior U.S. official said.
- A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council told Axios: “This is speculation by anonymous sources and we are not going to entertain hypotheticals.”
Reality check: There is no imminent Israeli military operation in Rafah and U.S. and Israeli officials say it is highly unlikely such an operation will take place before the end of Ramadan in mid-April.
- The Israeli war cabinet hasn’t given an order to the IDF to start evacuating Palestinian civilians from Rafah. If and when an order is given, it would take another two to three weeks to implement.
What they’re saying: Netanyahu claimed on Fox News on Monday that one-quarter of the Hamas’ army is in Rafah and therefore Israel needs to enter the city and destroy the Hamas’ battalions there.
In my book, Biden standing on principle is > than Bibi fighting for power at any cost.
Open thread.
Doug R
I’m seeing some daylight here in that Israel could go into Rafah if they safeguarded civilians.
horatius
This is super confusing.
Baud
Then he should resign, no?
Jay
For the “Good Things” post,
https://thetyee.ca/WhatWorks/2024/03/11/Unveiling-West-Coast-Electric-Big-Truck-Future/
Hoppie
@horatius: Clearly, the second “Bibi” should read “Biden” given the context.
catclub
Yes, it sounds like why April Glaspie was blamed for Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait – rather than Saddam Hussein.
Matt McIrvin
Maybe it’s an unwarranted analogy, but it really feels like we’re seeing what a 9/11 and its aftermath look like from the outside. I know what that feels like on the inside. I also know how that story ends–not in anything good. It’s like it becomes emotionally/politically impossible to respond in anything other than a bad and destructive way that only makes things worse. And Netanyahu is if anything a more bad-faith responder than Bush was.
Jay
@horatius:
It’s a way of saying “if you do X, there will be consequences, and you, not I, are responsible for the consequences being applied.”
geg6
@Doug R:
I have no idea how they could possibly safeguard civilians if they go in. If there is a way to do that, I’d love to see the plan.
geg6
@Baud:
Exactly.
Yutsano
Fixteth. Bibi has prosecutorial immunity while he’s Prime Minister. If he loses that privilege he goes to court and then to prison. This whole war right now is to keep him in power so he doesn’t go to the pokey.
EDIT: FYWP.
WaterGirl
@horatius: Oh, sorry, slip of the fingers! Corrected now.
teezyskeezy
@Doug R: That never happens in practice. Okay, sometimes an army goes into urban combat with a pretense of “protecting civilians” and they end up shaving a few percentage points off the collateral damage death toll. It can happen. Still gonna be a goddamn nightmare if they go in though.
Skippy-san
Bibi is trying to hang on to power and he is trying to appease his whack job conservative. coalition. One of the great lies that was told by conservatives during the Obama administration is that Bibi won office by a “landslide”. Those don’t exist in Israeli politics, but previously Likud was able to make partnerships with more reasonable people. Now he’s burned all those bridges and the only people he can make a government with are the Haredi and hard right slime like Oztuma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben Gvir. The majority of Israelis want Netanyahu gone for the role his government played in creating the circumstances that created October 7 in the first place.
Not to mention, that he is trying to bide time and hope Trump gets elected and will give him a free pass to do anything he wants. I was living and working in Israel when his useless Amabassador Friedman was there, and got to see first hand how bad he was.
Whatever anguish Israel experienced in October; they have gotten their vengeance 30-fold since then.
Israel Has Fallen Into Hamas’ Trap. But There’s a Way Out – Opinion – Haaretz.com
WaterGirl
@geg6: @Doug R:
That would require Bibi to actually care about civilians in Gaza, which he clearly does not.
Even if he did care, how the hell do you move over ONE MILLION refugees without creating an even bigger clusterfuck?
Captain C
@Baud:
Well, yes, but then Bibi probably goes to prison, and preventing this is Bibi’s main reason for pursuing this war. This is also why he’s happy to ally with scumbags and criminals such as Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
WaterGirl
@Skippy-san:
Nearly everyone saw that it was a trap as soon as it happened. Biden told Bibi, and probably a zillion other people did, too. Bibi told them all to fuck off.
Bibi priority #1: Bibi.
Bibi Priority #2: Bibi staying in power.
Bibi Priority #3: Bibi staying out of prison.
trollhattan
Bibi and his people have their talking points flashed permanently into their firmware. Whichever one I hear interviewed, and there have been a bunch, they always work in “the terrorist organization Hamas” “we will continue fighting until all hostages are released and Hamas no longer exists” “Hamas brought this upon themselves October 7” “we are the only side talking extreme measures to protect civilian lives and while every civilian death is tragic, each is the sole responsibility of Hamas, using them as human shields.”
They’re eerily similar to the organization they’re hellbent on killing off and offer no wriggle room whatsoever from their goals, even the unattainable ones. Dogmatic doesn’t even begin to characterize. As to their ever signing on to a two-state settlement, fuggidaddaboudit. They’ll continue seizing West Bank lands and I expect they plan on annexing a big chunk of Gaza.
Soprano2
@Baud: So how exactly is he going to guarantee that? Politicians make promises they can’t keep.
Skippy-san
@WaterGirl: I think there is another agenda too. Namely to destroy and annex any land for Palestinians to live on in the region formerly known as Palestine. It’s why I think Egypt is right to keep its border closed with Gaza because once they let refugees in, they will never be allowed back.
Whenever you go to Israel or see a Hebrew map of Israel, there is a never a dividing line shown between Israel and the west bank. Bibi has catered to the extremists who want Judea and Samaria settled only by Israelis. He is working up to annexing the West Bank which will truly make Israel an apartheid state.
Sure Lurkalot
@Matt McIrvin:
I too thought of 9-11 but not so much “from the outside”. Of the money we send to Israel, over 95% goes to the military. We have a lot invested in Bibi’s war regardless of his stated reasons for waging it.
Chris
@Matt McIrvin:
I feel like it’s 9/11 cranked way, way, up when it comes to the leader involved; Dubya’s dereliction of duty isn’t nearly as bad as Bibi’s, if only because “this is a border with a territory controlled by an islamist terrorist group that is the primary perpetrator of attacks against our country, maybe don’t leave your defenses on that border threadbare in order to loan out your troops as private security your colonists” should be much less of a lift than something as vague as “Bin Laden determined to strike within U.S.”
RaflW
@Skippy-san:
FP: Trump, Netanyahu Turn White House Into Election Campaign Stop
Jan 28, 2020
American and Israeli leaders have tried to help one another win elections in the past. But U.S. President Donald Trump took it to a new level Tuesday, turning a White House Middle East peace ceremony into a reelection prop for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and himself.
WaterGirl
@Skippy-san: I agree with you.
rikyrah
@Skippy-san:
TRUTH
Baud
@rikyrah:
Seconded. And Trump has admitted it.
Jay
Keep in mind that Bibi’s IDF shot dead three hostages who had escaped from Hamas, who were unarmed, yelling who they were in Hebrew, and carrying white flags, with out a split second’s hesitation.
RaflW
@RaflW: Eh! Was working on a too-long edit and timed out.
Anyhoo:
I’m fed up with Bibi’s partisan preference for Trump. The Biden Admin has been too gracious in the face of naked partisanship from Netanyahu.
I am OK with maintaining a US-Israel defensive alliance (in terms of US presence in the region so no one else gets bad ideas about Israel’s vulnerability), but giving $3Bn a year in direct military grants? No. Not presently. Not given what they’ve done in mass-casualty response to the original Hamas outrage.
I still don’t really understand the third US veto of the UN ceasefire resolution. All that said, I think it’s good that Biden has gone public with his pissed-offed-ness, and that a red line is being expounded.
Paul in KY
@WaterGirl: I think ‘killing lots of Palestinians’ is in there somewhere.
Parfigliano
@Skippy-san: Make Israel more of an apartheid state.
JaneE
Netanyahu is not Israel. Disproportionate response is just that – not fair, nor reasoned nor reasonable and more often than not makes the future response from the other side even worse.
Whatever Israel wants, they have to find a way to live with Palestinians, because the only alternative is to make them go away entirely.
It is not like the inhabitants of that part of the world have not been fighting over land and control for thousands of years. When we should be becoming civilized enough to give up might makes right, what we have instead is an escalation of terror, violence, sadism and hatred. Things people have a really hard time letting go of.
Paul in KY
@Chris: I think Batshit McChimpy’s and Darth Cheney’s was worse, as Iraq/Saddam never attacked us and actually loathed Bin Laden. We could have had Bin Laden if we’d gone into Afghanistan hard.
Hamas did attack and is partially based in West Bank.
Roberto el oso
@Matt McIrvin: I think it’s a very accurate analogy. And like the ham-handed US response after 9/11 it’s heartbreaking and depressing to see how quickly Israel has squandered the good will of much of the world following the horrors of October 7.
Paul in KY
@JaneE: Israel has what the Palestinians want. To me, they have to act ‘gooderer’ than Israel does if they ever want to get their state, as it will only happen when Israel allows it to happen.
Geminid
@Chris: Differences between the leaders aside, 9/11 involved 3,000 citizens killed out of a population of over 300 million. The October 7 attack killed 1200 citizens out of a population of 9.5 million. Americans took 9/11 hard, but Israelis took October 7 much, much harder.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Made it quite clear that that IDF unit, at least, was regularly shooting surrendering people.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
It has been pointed out, many times over the decades, that one of the easiest ways to destroy a professional army in short order, is to use it as an army of Occupation.
lowtechcyclist
Wouldn’t have happened the first time if that had been his red line on October 6th.
Timill
@JaneE:
That seems to be Israel’s objective.
Bill Arnold
@Geminid:
Yes. Also, 1.5 percent of the Israeli population is (roughly) 140000, and the IDF has killed about that percentage of the Gaza population (including bodies and disassembled bodies still under rubble), and inflicting life-altering physical injuries on another few percent more. And those non-IDF people killed/wounded in Gaza are mostly civilians. The IDF claims about combatants are probably inflated, because random killing of civilians with high explosives would be expected to randomly kill a large number of adult males of fighting age who were not militants (militants in Gaza, per IDF, are 5-10 percent of adult males of fighting age).
cain
I would submit that he’s completely aligned with those whack jobs. He wants everything they want. Appeasing them, appeases him. He’s just trying to hang on to power. He’s more than happy to build a coalition with those other assholes.
cain
@lowtechcyclist:
The damn thing happened on his watch while doing performative bullshit in the west bank taking IDF soldiers away from the border. He bears 100% responsibility for that.
Resign, and get someone more competent.
Jay C
@JaneE:
@Timill:
That seems to be Israel’s objective.
And the governing principle of a non-trivial segment of Israeli citizenry, and the political coalition necessary for Netanyahu’s survival (and keeping out of jail).
Cacti
@Jay: The Chief of the IDF had to tell his troops to stop TikTok-ing their war crimes.
Not to actually stop committing them, but stop posting video evidence in a public forum.
Geminid
I ran into this long Haaretz article last night. It was written 10 days ago but it covers a lot of the areas at issue in this post, especially the political situation in Israel.
The article is titled,”Gallant Succeeded Where Hamas Failed: He Jeapordized the Future of Netanyahu’s Coalition”:
Now I have to verify the link and post it later. Haaretz articles are usually not paywalled but this one was not.
Yoav Gallant is the Likud Party Defense Minister who last March 24 made public his belief that Netanyahu’s judicial power grab was threatening national security. Netanyahu fired him and that brought hundreds of thousands of protesting Israelis onto the streets that night, forcing the PM to unfire Gallant and later withdraw all but one of his “reforms.”
More recently, the emergency coalition agreement ratified by the Knesset on October 12 made Gallant one of the three voting members of a War Cabinet with power over major decisions. Netanyahu and opposition leader and former defense minister Benny Gantz are the other two. Likud hack Ron Dermer and Gantz ally Gadi Eisenkot are “Observers” with an advisory role. Like Gantz, Eisenkot is a former IDF Chief of Staff.
The “Jeopardy” the title refers to was the effect of a statement Gallant made two weeks ago about the new conscription law the Knesset must pass. The proposed law would extend initial service from 30 months to 36, and raise the age of active Reserve status from age 40 to 45. Gallant in effect said that he would not support it if draft exemptions for Ultra-Orthodox citizens are not scaled back.
While Netanyahu’s two Ultra-Orthodox coalition party partners find this prospect appalling, secular Israelis are furious that they are subsidizing so many freeloaders when they are fighting and dying to protect them. I think the Knesset must pass this legislation by March 31.
Jay
@Cacti:
I can see why giving China all that data and video evidence might be a bit of a National Security issue.
Kay
Israelis should ask some real questions about their government. Israel has only 9 million people and they spend a huge amount on security. They could literally track everyone in the country and in and out of the country. How do get attacked like this?
Since they know Netanyahu is corrupt is the massive amount they spend on security even going to that? Maybe Netanyahu and his cronies are stealing it. It’s nuts to think the corruption begins and ends with the guy at the top – that wasn’t true of the Trump Administration – half of them were doing their own freelance stealing.
Geminid
@Geminid: The link?
Gahh! Bad link. Anyway the article is well worth reading. I’ll post a few excerpts.
Kay
Israel is smaller than Massachusets. It’s one fifth the size of Kentucky. Yet somehow all that spending they do on security wasn’t sufficient to protect against an attack? No one wonders about that? They spend 20 billion a year on security – 9 million people, 1/5 of Kentucky.
Quaker in a Basement
Netanyahu argued that his pre-October 7 policies toward Gaza were necessary to keep Israel safe. His policies failed. Now he’s using his own failure to argue for even more strict crackdowns.
Captain C
@Kay:
The same way 9/11 happened here: the powers that be were ignoring the hell out of many (fairly specific) red flags that something nasty was about to happen as they were concentrating on their own bugbears and grifts, and once it happened both Bibi himself and Shrubya’s puppetmasters were happy to use the attacks for their own nefarious ends (in Bibi’s case, staying out of prison being paramount).
WRT 9/11, I think there’s an even money chance at least that a notional President Gore’s national security team rolls up the plot before it transpires, similar to what the Clinton team (which included Gore) did to the Millennium Plot.
WRT 10/7, stopping it would have required that Bibi stop backing up the West Bank settlers in their illegal attacks, land grabs, olive tree burnings, and other nonsense that they were inflicting on their Palestinian neighbors and redeployed the IDF to where they were actually needed to protect Israel.
XeckyGilchrist
@horatius: It’s not so much confusing as abuser logic. I’m not a big fan of “look what you made me do.”
Jay
@Kay:
they had month’s of warning, from inside and out.
They even watched Hamas training for the attack.
They ignored it all, believing that their military supremacy would deter a Hamas attack,
and then they pulled the IDF brigades off the Gazan border to act as a goon squad on the Settler’s behalf in the West Bank to disposess more Palestinian villages and expand the settlements.
The IDF watchtowers, (mostly staffed by women) reported the first attacks, they were not believed, and one by one, the towers fell and the IDF women were the first to be killed and multilated, raped, or taken hostage.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: I was talking about the effect of the October 7 attack on Israeli citizens. What Israel has done since doesn’t erase that, even if it has for you.
And while you imply that the combatants the IDF claims killed in Gaza were killed “randomly” by “high explosives,” that is not true and you know it’s not, at least if you have been paying attention. The IDF has had up to 14 brigades on the ground in Gaza for more than 4 months and they have accounted for many of the Hamas and other fighters killed. So your attempt to minimize Hamas’s casualties does not hold water.
I do not take the IDF numbers at face value. This is one of many important facts we won’t know until this war is over.
Geminid
@Jay: The women were not believed when they reported their concerns in the months leading up to the attacks. I think you are conflating those stories with the response when the attack was made.
The Haaretz article I referenced above goes into some of the warnings recieved the night before the attack.
Gravenstone
Bibi knew 10/7 was coming. Fucking downplayed the danger of it and it bit him in the ass. Fuck him.
Geminid
@Cacti: The IDF Chief of Staff told his troops to stop committing the crimes, not just to stop TikToking them. Anyone who wants to see this can find it out easily.
evodevo
@Kay:
Uh, KY has a population of ~4.5 million…
Hob
This may not be a super helpful or relevant comment, but I’d just like to say that I wish Caitlin Johnstone would either shut the fuck up or become a more substantive writer. She already helped to convert a former friend of mine from a gentle idealist into someone who parrots crap about how Putin is getting a bad rap from “shitlibs” and Ukraine isn’t really a country. Today another friend shared a less offensive but still stupid Johnstone post that said, in its entirety: “It says so much about US politics that Biden’s most vulnerable political weak point is the fact that he’s sponsoring a genocide, but Republicans can’t attack him on that point because they support the genocide too.” No, Johnstone, it doesn’t fucking say “so much”, at least not in the isn’t-it-wild-how-both-sides-are-the-same way that you mean. It says that the US for many decades and for many reasons has been overly committed to an alliance with a country whose politics have become steadily more terrible, which is something that anyone who was paying attention at all already knew. And it says that in US partisan politics, domestic policy tends to be a much bigger dividing line than foreign policy, which I’m pretty sure is true in virtually all countries. And it says that that is Biden’s worst vulnerability because in virtually all other respects he’s extremely different from Republicans, in ways that most people actually prefer.
Doug R
@Skippy-san: Is there an unlocked version of that article?
Geminid
@Geminid: From “Gallant Succeeded Where Hamas Failed: He Jeopardized the Future of Netanyahu’s Coalition” Haaretz March 1, 2024:
Like I said, it’s a long article that covers a lot of ground. The author briefly discusses the municipal elections two weeks ago. These elections had a low turnout, 45% instead of 53% the last time. Candidates running on the Likud line fared poorly and some formerly Likud mayors ran without party affiliation:
Geminid
@Captain C: Israeli leaders would have had to have been be prepared for a major attack, and they should been. They knew Hamas had the resources to stage one. They persuaded themselves that Hamas was deterred by their power to inflict the massive destruction we’ve seen since then.
They did not ask themselves, “What if Hamas refuses to be deterred?” If they had, they would have never left the border areas so thinly manned.
Kay
@evodevo:
square miles
JML
@Jay: Bibi liked having Hamas in Gaza and basically propped them up to use as the big scary enemy, always thinking that they’d never actually dare attack in force.
He’s the absolute worst, and needs to go as fast as possible.
JPL
@JML: I’m still shocked that Hamas was able to attack for hours before a strong response.
Skippy-san
@Geminid: The draft of Haredi almost brought down the government in 2012. Now there is a lot of resentment towards the Haredi especially since IDF casualties have been higher than expected.
Skippy-san
@JML: Having 11 Battalions in the West bank did not help. Defending settlements that should not be there. The IDF was definitely understrength in Southern Israel.
Jay
@JML:
Israel and the Mossad basically created Hamas, sort of.
They funded and supported Muslim Brotherhood politicians and leaders in the Occupied Territories to weaken the PLO and Fatah.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Hamas
Skippy-san
@Doug R: I guess not. I have a subscription to Haaretz so I tend to forget a lot of their stuff is paywalled.
Warblewarble
As with the killing of Israeli hostages by the IDF, we shall never have a true account of the number of Israelis killed by indiscriminate IDF fire on Oct.7th.
Hoppie
@evodevo: I’m sure Kay was referring to spatial area, since it is borders that are defended.
Captain C
@Geminid:
Apparently they also forgot to ask themselves, “What happens if we remove the deterrent?”
staidy
@Matt McIrvin: Both Bush and Netanyahu were asleep at the wheel and did not protect their people from terrorism. Perhaps they thought they could undo their culpability by expending military might. They are both inept leaders who shamed their people and destroyed so much and so many.
Roberto el oso
@Hob: Caitlin Johnstone is an imbecile. I have followed her ‘career’ for some years and every utterance is one of delusional ignorance cranked up to 11. Her presence as a link in any post is a pretty surefire litmus test that the person sharing her is an idiot.
Geminid
@Captain C: Israel did not remove the deterrent, they removed part of the already inadequate defensive forces. They inflicted the deterrent afterwards in revenge, as Hamas expected.
Geminid
@Roberto el oso: Johnstone also supported Iran’s murderous regime, when mass demonstrations challenged the government after morality police killed Mahsa Amin in Fall of 2022.
Roberto el oso
I’ve read (over the years) that the IDF prefers not to have to deal with ultra-Orthodox Israelis in the ranks, because they have problems with discipline, are not good at taking orders, etc.
Geminid
@Jay: It’s worth putting that link out for others but I am aware of this. Personally, I would say that Israel fostered Hamas, not created it but I think we are talking about the same thing. The Wikipedia article gives plenty of information about Hamas’s beginnings in the Muslim Brotherhood and how Israel exploited its potential to weaken the Palestinian Authority.
Netanyahu was very clear about this in a Likud party meeting in 2018. That speech has come back to haunt him because the tape was propagated widely within Israel in the aftermath of October 7 and is now common knowledge.
Jay
@Geminid:
It was all the rage at one time, to “promote” Islamic Fundi’s in the Islamic World, to weaken Secular Nationalist and Socialist parties.
It didn’t work out well, anywhere.
One would have thought that the Israeli/Shin Bet/IDF policy from the 50’s and 60’s, of “mowing the lawn” of any popular moderate Palestinian Mayor or Arab Israeli Politician, that lead to the dominance of the PLO, would have been a lesson carried forward and learned.
But no.
Eyeroller
@Geminid:Who is this person? She seems to live in Australia? Why is she writing about American politics that she apparently does not understand, and why should we pay any attention (other than the existence of social-media “influencers,” which may be the end of us all).
Hob
@Roberto el oso: When it’s a screenshot-share of something like this, I think you it’s hard to distinguish between “the person sharing it is an idiot who’s familiar with Johnstone & is into her bullshit” and “the person sharing it isn’t very familiar with Johnstone but saw this somewhere & agreed with what they thought the general sentiment was.” That’s why it’s in her interest to be as vague as possible with stuff like this (like, writing “it says so much” rather than saying what it says).
Geminid
@Roberto el oso: I read recently that until the 1970s, most Ultra-Orthodox men served in the IDF, and the process of increasing their deferments to the unsustainable level of today began under Menachem Begin’s government. Part of the problems with integrating them now stem from the large presence of women in the IDF, but others are the haredim’s crappy education level and the pressure from their community not to serve. The rabbis don’t want them in the army because they come back with a lot of terrible, modern ideas.
But like it or not, the Ultra-Orthodox will be drafted, I think. Israel can’t sustain its required force levels with only 65% of the populace providing 100% of the personel. The haredi are a little under 15% of Israelis, but the Arabs are almost 20% and they are also exempt (although some volunteer). The Druse and Circassians are drafted. In fact, Druze leaders insisted on this when the country was founded because they understood they would be second-class citizens otherwise. They are an Arab-speaking, non-Muslim religious community with 150,000 members in Israel, with more in Syria and the most in Lebanon.
Another reason Israel needs to start drafting the Ultra-Orthodox is that their separation is economically unsustainable. They basically are being paid not to work. IDF service can help integrate them into the economy when they leave. The same with the IDF’s Arab members; that is one reason they join up.
As the Haaretz writer said this military service law is putting maximum stress on Netanyahu’s coalition, and at the same time it’s got the opposition even angrier than they were. It may be what finally brings this rotten government down. If it doesn’t, something else will before Spring is out, I believe.
Geminid
@Eyeroller: Johnstone is a believer in the global struggle against American hegemony, so she concerns herself with American politics a lot. In her eyes, this country is the root of almost all the evil in the world. Her views are fairly widely disseminated among the Code Pink types.
Hob
@Eyeroller: Johnstone doesn’t really have anything to say about US politics as such – at least, she’s not interested in anything about their domestic consequences, or what they mean to any constituencies here. Her thing is 90% general statements about “empire” and “capitalism”, and 10% hand-waving about how every other issue is a distraction for suckers and “shitlibs.” From that point of view, there’s no reason why someone who lives in the US and knows anything about history should know more about the US than someone who lives outside the US and started thinking about this stuff 5 minutes ago; it’s all attitude, all about denying the messy details of the world in favor of easy abstractions, and not being a sucker like your liberal Democrat mom. Based on how she writes I don’t think she has any sincere beliefs or interest in political engagement (so when I said I wish she’d try being a more substantive writer, that was a polite formality; she won’t). As you say, she’s just an influencer, very similar to many others.
Unfortunately, the particular influencer niche she occupies is relevant in that it tends to pull in well-meaning people who are relatively new to progressive politics and think righteous anger is always a good sign. As I said earlier, I personally know people who have gone down that rabbit hole, and quickly bought into a lot of pernicious bullshit because there’s a whole ecosystem of those influencers quoting and reinforcing each other. So when you ask “why should we pay any attention” I would say it depends on whether you think it’s worthwhile to be aware of malicious organized propaganda in general, especially when it’s targeted at people who are broadly on the left, and is very clearly designed to make them more sympathetic to right-wing mythology (for instance, two of Johnstone’s big themes outside of imperalism are 1. liberals are fixated on “Russiagate”, which is a hoax, just like the right wing is fixated on silly ideas about “wokeness”… but 2. “wokeness” really is a pernicious thing anyway, because all pro-LGBTQ efforts are really a ruse by liberals who don’t really mean it).
Geminid
@Geminid:
@Geminid: All right, I will try the link again:
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-03-01/ty-article/.premium/gallant-succeeded-where-hamas-failed-he-jeopardized-tge-future-of-netanyahus-coalition/0000018d-f6bf-dd0a-afcf-ffff71ab0000
Jay
@Geminid:
works, thank you.
Hob
@Geminid: Thanks, that worked. It’s semi-un-paywalled in that you can read 6 free articles per month if you provide an email address.
Geminid
@Jay: My understanding is that in the decades after the Second World War the Muslim Brotherhood was the only substantial opposition to the kingdoms that ruled the Arab world and their Baathist-type successors. In the 1970s there was a rise of revolutionary leftists organizations and that is when the PLO became a force. The PKK was another left-wing national liberation movement that arose that decade.
Turkish President Erdogan is a product of the Muslim Brotherhood, although he comes out of Turkiye’s Sufi brand of Islam. He also operates in a secular Republic and tempers his Islamisim accordingly.
I wonder if you have been following reports of the anticipated withdrawal of American forces from Syria. That may happen before the year is out or not long after. There is some speculation now as to the effect this could have on Rojava, and how the YPJ and their constituents will handle the transition.
The Iraqi government has started the process of evicting our misson in western Iraq, and the mission in eastern Syria cannot stay there alone. The U.S. mission up north in Erbil, capital of the Kurdish Regional Government will apparently stay.
Skippy-san
@Roberto el oso: I think there is some truth to that, but it varies by unit. I spent 10 years while I was living in Germany working with the IDF in Israel and spent considerable time in Israel. I learned Hebrew and traveled widely around the country.
I respect Israelis, but one can never forget that their interests and ours are radically different. And for them, it’s all about what they want. Nothing else. Once you understand that, you can work with them, but “where you sit determines what you see.”
ETtheLibrarian
Biden may be sending messages to Bibi, but he is also sending messages to to Israelis writ large.
Skippy-san
@Geminid: My friends in the IDF told me that they have programs to overcome educational issues, just like they have schools to improve the level of Hebrew among Lone Soldiers coming from abroad to serve in the IDF.
( I was surprised how many people came from overseas to serve in the IDF when I was working there).
That said, there are real problems with Haredi leadership who express contempt for the Israeli state but are more than happy to take money to keep men who should be working in Yeshiva.
To quote from Haaretz (the article is behind a paywall). :
“We can learn about the Haredi attitude to Israeli soldiers from remarks by two prominent leaders of the “Lithuanian” – non-Hasidic – stream. Rabbi Dov Landau prohibited yeshiva students from attending military funerals or even making hospital visits to wounded soldiers. Let them die in peace, what does he care? Rabbi Yisrael Bunim Schreiber said that IDF soldiers are like “garbagemen,” and “it’s none of our business, the ones who are killed… They have no connection to us, they are not our brothers.”
It’s time we realized that the real reason for Haredi draft evasion is the blunt and straightforward desire to protect their children’s lives. The Haredi lawmakers are elected in order to make sure that no military funeral procession ever leaves from Bnei Brak.”
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-03-12/ty-article-opinion/.premium/the-real-reason-haredim-dont-want-their-children-to-enlist-in-the-idf/0000018e-2e8c-d86c-abae-3eed14060000?fbclid=IwAR0N3wfBlyDINzU8x9J_TLic6wfw8g1R49rvf5IvEMsvmLHP2XXTlTSJyk8
Bill Arnold
@Geminid:
I am simply saying that attacks that accidentally kill civilians will tend to indiscriminately kill a representative portion of the population in the target areas. That is, with say 500 thousand male civilians of fighting age, and 30 thousand said to be armed militants that are part of Hamas, the statistical expectation would be that roughly 20 percent of such random kills would be civilian (not militant) adult males of fighting age, assuming they are roughly co-located. At current numbers, that would be 6200/31000. Israel is claiming in the low 10s of thousands militants killed, but it is not clear what exactly they are counting.
Anyway, as you say, reported numbers cannot be trusted (FWIW Gaza health ministry numbers have been found to be reasonably accurate in the past, but now might be different); the accounting after the shooting stops will need to be done, and it will involve large mortality surveys, excess deaths, etc, as checks on reported numbers by both the Gaza health ministry and the IDF.
Bill Arnold
@Hob:
This is specifically where she lost me. I saw enough (pro-Trump) interference in USA politics (technical things, quite clear-cut) in 2016+ to thereafter loath Russia/the Russian Federation (well, the internationally-active parts of the government at least), and to know that she was either intentionally full of shit, or simply grossly wrong.
Did not know about her support for the Iranian theocratic government. (Thanks Geminid.) Sigh. Trump gleefully stomped out any hope for any moderation in Iranian politics with his withdrawal from the JCPOA. That’s yet another legacy of Trump winning in 2016.
horatius
@WaterGirl: That makes sense. Much appreciated!! Old man don’t think too good these days.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: I understand and basically agree with this. I was pointing out that not nearly all the combatants that the IDF has killed were killed in random bombings, or even by targeted airstrikes.
This is not to say that any of the civilians killed by Israel in this war were not killed in violation of the law of war. Israel always had a duty to spare and protect non-combatants and that nation flagrantly disregarded it, especially in the first month but in the last few weeks as well. Like I said above, there has a large been a large element of vengeance in their actions.
But I will not be but so morally righteous about this. My nation did almost as bad in Iraq 20 years ago, as bad or worse in Vietnam 35 years before that, and far, far worse in Japan 80 years ago. And even then this nation was among the safest nations in the world and it still is, at least in terms of external threats.
Geminid
@Skippy-san: Well, Israeli soldiers have not been killed in large numbers since the 2nd Lebanon War 40 years ago, and the 1973 War was the last time so many were killed so quickly. So I think the opposition of Ultra-Orthodox leaders to military service by their young men is based more on a desire to keep them apart from the larger Israeli society.
But no matter why, secular Israelis and many religiously observant Israelis have had it with this situation. They are carrying the burden of defending the state by themselves, and now a government composed in large part of draft dodgers is telling them they have step it up.
Geminid
@ETtheLibrarian: I thought that yesterday when Biden said he had no plans at present to address Israel’s Knesset. A few days before Biden said he wanted to address the Knesset and I believe he meant it. I think the message now is, not this Knesset; the next one.
Paul in KY
@Jay: Back then (60s – 70s), Israeli leadership still believed in an eventual 2 state solution. Once Likud got in, the priority was to ensure the Palestinians (via Hamas mainly) would do awful things (that would get in the newspapers) and thus torpedo any chance of Israel (and their citizens) feeling like they can be OK with a Palestinian state.
Geminid
@Paul in KY: I would differ with your time line some. When Israel conquered Egyptian Sinai, West Bank, Gaza and the Golan Heights I think they intended to hold on to the last three areas indefinitely. They established setttlements on Golan and the Jordan River Valley. I think these were intended to mark their new defensive frontier. They also formally annexed the Golan and East Jerusalem but these annexations are not recognized by other mations.
Israel traded back the Sinai to Egypt in 1978 in return for a peace agreement, and signed a peace treaty with Jordan in 1994. Egypt did not claim Gaza and Jordan wanted no part of the West Bank.
Gathering resistance in the West Bank including the First Intifada induced Prime Minister Yotzhak Rabin to negotiated the Oslo Accord around 1994. They were only partially implemented but still are the template for a two-state resolution of the Palestinian question. Under Ariel Sharon, Israel withdrew from Gaza unilaterally around 2004.
Sharon had left Likud in order to form a new party willing to work towards a settlement. Kadima faded after Sharon’s stroke and subsequent governments declared the Oslo process unworkable.
Bitter Scribe
@Doug R: How in the world would they do that? Their word on that subject so far has been nearly worthless.