Florida held its presidential primary yesterday. Controversially, the FL Democratic Party opted not to expend resources on a presidential primary and threw its support behind Joe Biden.**
The Florida vote was pretty meaningless since both candidates had already clinched their nominations. But it’s fascinating that although Trump won big with 81%, the FL primary was yet another result that demonstrates there’s a significant portion of Republicans who want a not-Trump.
Florida Republicans in this closed primary state also rejected DeSantis. He got 3.7%, and Haley got 13.9%. Even Marco Rubio had a better showing than DeSantis in Florida during Rubio’s losing effort to Trump in the 2016 contest, and pretty much everyone despises Rubio, including his supporters.
Trump came up short in red Ohio too, according to ABC News:
Two in 10 to as many as three in 10 Republican primary voters in Ohio continue to resist Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy — and among those supporting Nikki Haley, nearly half say they’d back Joe Biden in November, according to preliminary exit poll results from the Republican primary.
Leave it to Politico Playbook to offer the dumbest possible take on the OH senate race:
Democrats got the candidate they wanted in Moreno, but the race will offer an interesting strategic test for Sen. SHERROD BROWN, the most populist, nationalist and protectionist Democrat in the Senate. (In other words, the most Trumplike.)
Brown is “Trumplike?” These fucknuckles are still listening to what Trump says rather than looking at what he does, and that’s been inexcusable for several years now. The comparison is an insult to Brown, who, unlike the orange fart cloud, actually has genuine principles.
Anyhoo, Trump will almost certainly win Ohio and Florida in November. But he still appears to be a weaker candidate in 2024 than he was in 2020, and as a reminder, in 2020 HE LOST.
Open thread.
*A more plausible guess than Dr. Ronny “Candyman” Jackson’s bald-faced lies.
**I understand the disgruntlement, but meh, get over it. FL Dems have enough on their plate without spending millions to indulge no-hopers like Phillips and Williamson.
cain
The media is going to be the worst thing about this election. Even more so than MAGA. Just a bunch of assholes.
Brachiator
I like this. A hopeful sign of the return of some political sanity.
I hope that the Democrats can work on this in Ohio and other states during the campaign season.
Bupalos
I legit involuntarily shout-screeched “GWAAKA-GSSSSFUCK” when I read their line. Which I cannot even get myself to cut-paste here.
Miss Bianca
Failing to understand why this would be controversial. In fact, I would say that’s the most sensible thing I’ve seen the FL Democratic Party do in a long, long time. (Sorry, BC!)
zhena gogolia
@cain: Sherrod Brown is Trump-like. My God.
Redshift
I still believe that the only reason Trump kept setting tariffs is it was one of the few things he could just do in a long-like fashion, without someone telling him it required a process that he was too lazy to bother with. It was purely performative, and it was only interpreted as “protectionist” because of all his other nativist rhetoric.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@cain: @zhena gogolia:
Yet another benefit of reading BJ: an indicator of what to avoid reading.
waspuppet
Not one person in the entire Politico Playbook newsroom asked “What is it exactly about Sherrod Brown that is Trump-like?
I repeat: There is no other section of any newspaper/newscast/news website that asks fewer actual questions than the national political desk. Baseball writers have to explain themselves better than this.
Jinchi
@zhena gogolia: Sometimes I think the media don’t know the difference between populist and nativist.
The populism of Sherrod Brown doesn’t overlap at any specific point with the views of the gold plated rapist.
SFAW
You scoff, but 267 lb yields a BMI of 24.2.
If you’re 7’4″ tall.
Attempted Chemistry
I’m 6’1″, 309 lbs, and I’m basically Trump’s size and shape. If he’s more than 20 lbs. lighter than me, I’ll be shocked.
Baud
Didn’t the FL Dems take that action after the also-rans failed to put in their paperwork or something?
Miss Bianca
@waspuppet: Baseball fans actually know the game. Unlike the consumers of most political news. To our continued cost as a nation.
Altho’ we are far from alone in this as a culture. I remember seeing something Bertolt Brecht wrote, talking about “what if people followed politics as avidly as they follow sports”.
Baud
How is Brown a nationalist?
I can see how they got to the other two descriptions.
Kay
This is good but I don’t want to rely too much on it because it’s not a total number. We know they were “Nikki Haley” voters but we don’t know if they’re “Republicans”. They could have been Independents or even Right wing Democrats, so we don’t know if this is a net gain for Biden compared to 2020.
I do think it illustrates Trump weakness though, something most of political media is studiously and carefully avoiding because they’re backing Trump. He should be doing better than he is! He can’t be this big unstoppable juggernaut that the NYTimes portrays if 20% of Right wing voters aren’t backing him.
It’s like how they basically ignored the fact that he lost his re-elect. Votes matter more than polls, folks. Don’t let the NYTimes bamboozle you on that.
Baud
@Kay:
We should have a betting pool on which page the NYT will report Biden’s win in November.
TBone
On topic:
https://digbysblog.net/2024/03/20/coming-home-to-roost/
UncleEbeneezer
@Miss Bianca: Thank you. A Primary of Biden is, at this point, completely pointless and a major waste of time, $ and a needless distraction. It always was, but it is especially so now. We’ve got a monumental election to win and it’s time for everybody to stop with the bullshit and get behind our President.
Kay
They’re really shockingly ignorant on Brown. Brown is very strong on the environment, civil rights and equity issues and womens rights. To compare him to Donald Trump is just fucking moronic – the ultimate in the lazy, sloppy “THIS is like THAT” comparisons they all use and no one should listen to them.
Political media need to find some other frame than comparison. Relying completely on flattened out, dumb comparisons really infects their work. Work harder. Do something different. Stop being so rigidly conventional and brittle and take a fucking risk once in a while.
Brachiator
@Redshift:
The GOP used to oppose tariffs until Trump came along. It was in the GOP’s interests to throw Trump a populist bone to make it look as though he was for the people.
Frankensteinbeck
@Redshift:
Naah, Trump has a history long before 2016. He has groused for decades about trade imbalances. This is his incredibly simplistic, zero-sum view of transactions and his egotistical belief he’s the Greatest Negotiator Ever. He was sincerely trying to win a trade war.
There are a very few things he has a record of actually caring about. That is one. Hating regulations is another. And of course, being a murderous racist asshat.
Kay
So if Haley voters were Trump voters in 2020 then the percentage drop off matters. But we don’t knwo that they were. So the percentage doesn’t tell us anything. We need the number.
It’s like how the “uncommitted” vote NUMBER in Michigan was meaningful but the percentage was not, because “14%” can mean 20k people or 80k people. 20k people it’s not important, 80k people Biden could lose Michigan. Both 14%.
Salty Sam .
Were they not paying attention when Sesame Street ran the “One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other” segments?
Chetan Murthy
This is the “feasting on TFG’s discomfiture” thread, right? Let ‘er rip: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-civil-fraud/
Awwwwwwwww. Lemme crank up that violin …. if I can find it here among the tardigrade scat.
Kay
@Baud:
Sherrod Brown regularly skewers “corporate media” – I don’t think they like him. It’s a reason I think he would have trouble in a Presidential election – he’s really pretty prickly about them- but considering how they treat Biden maybe it just doesn’t matter and they would dislike him just for being a Democrat.
lowtechcyclist
“Populist” has long since ceased to mean anything, given that it can mean “sticking up for all workers against the big corporations” or it can mean “sticking up for straight white men by beating up on women, blacks, Hispanics, gays, trans persons, etc.” and what’s worst of all is that motherfucking Politico just basically said that one of these things is no different from the other.
I guess the same must be happening to “nationalist” if they consider both Brown and Trump to be nationalists.
At least “protectionist” still has a fairly clear meaning. For all I know, they may be right about that one.
Captain C
@Baud: Headline: “Trump Claims Victory as Biden nears 400 Electoral Votes and Democrats Take Both Houses. Who Knows What’s Actually True?!?”
Page C23 will have a well-reported article on how overwhelming Biden’s victory was and why Trump is full of shit.
Chetan Murthy
@lowtechcyclist: It’s like “working class”. Somehow it excludes people of color; somehow it includes small business owners.
Ole Lurky
Actually Biden is going to take Ohio in a national slam dunk. You heard it here first, folks.
hueyplong
That Politico byline has 3 names, “with help from” 3 more names, better to blur the identity of the author of the “Trumplike” sentence. So let’s attribute it to all 6 for future reference and credibility analysis (though a Politico byline, standing alone, might suffice).
Kathleen
@Baud: Or how they will spin it. If the script is Biden’s age front page headline will be “Biden Managed To Stay Awake Long Enough To See The Final Vote Count.”
Points: 1) “Biden Old”. 2) Word “win” not used.
Kathleen
@Kay: I did not know he disliked the media! And I thought I couldn’t love him any more than I do!
mrmoshpotato
LOL! How does that work with that underhydrated bastard?
“I despise this guy that I support. Shut up! It makes perfect sense!”
Baud
@Ole Lurky:
👍
Brachiator
@Kay:
Too much of political media is happily lazy and reductive. It’s up to readers to be critical thinkers.
lowtechcyclist
@mrmoshpotato:
To them, I’m sure it does. I’m sure they think even the most despicable Republican is better than any socialist Demon-Rat who opens the borders to let in all those diseased, violent people from south of the border.
trollhattan
@Kay: My sense, and just that, is Hayley supporters are more likely to not vote than pick Biden over Trump. Put another way:
-Vote Trump (top %)
-Don’t vote (2nd %)
-Vote Biden (3rd %)
All of the above would seem to be a trivial total of voters except maybe SC, which ain’t going Democratic even if Jesus himself appears and tells them to vote Biden.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Brachiator
@Ole Lurky:
“Ole Lurky.” Cool nym.
And, I would also like to see Biden clean Trump’s clock in Ohio and elsewhere.
Betty
@lowtechcyclist: Protectionist means he is against the free trade deals that killed US manufacturing. I guess they hate all the new jobs Biden and the Democrats have created.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Ole Lurky: So much wrong with our politics started with Reagan. It would be nicely fitting if the pendulum started swinging back, with Biden scoring a 2024 electoral victory comparable to Reagan’s in 1984.
Nice of them to revive the Reagan “are you better off” slogan to help with the potential symmetry.
TBone
@Chetan Murthy: on that note:
https://digbysblog.net/2024/03/20/it-always-comes-back-to-russia-russia-russia/
Just for starters (much more is discussed):
Kay
@trollhattan:
I think we would win a low turnout/unengaged environment, because our voters have been turning out in midterms and specials better than theirs, so null votes from squishy, indecisive people is fine with me.
JustRuss
@Miss Bianca: Simple. Everything Democrats do is controversial. Or something. I expect Politico’s stylebook has a list of modifiers to use when referring to Democrats, they just pick one at random.
kindness
I’m beginning to think the media is going to be hoisted on it’s own petard. They so much want a good horse race. They really want Trump to win too, but that’s never spoken directly by them. With moderate Republicans and independents breaking for Biden, we might very well see a bloodbath at the polls in November, with a complete Trump wipe out.
Once can only hope, right? Well that and help GOTV.
Baud
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
I wish, but can’t happen because of racial divisions.
K-Mo
@Kay: I think it comes down to, they don’t take their job seriously. Like they can just throw down something provocative but untruthful and then just punch out for the day and get a few drinks before the big game comes on the tube.
Kay
@Kathleen:
It’s becoming something of a theme for Democrats in Ohio. Marcy Kaptur told a story about national media on the campaign trail in 2020 about how when they’re doing something substantive she looks around for national media and they’re all clustered around Marjorie Taylor Greene. I heard her tell it three times so it must have been part of her theme. It works in a campaign setting- she’s joining voters in their disatisfaction with media without becoming Trumpy. She’s smart. Base Democrats are really angry at political coverage, and have been since 2016 and Clinton. “Corporate media” resonates.
TBone
@TBone: also Tiedrich today 🔥😆
https://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/boo-fucking-hoo-trump-campaign-cant
Jackie
BC, I just posted that in the prior probably almost dead thread in your honor! 😁
Maybe that will squelch any future political aspirations Pudd’n Boots might be eyeballing!
Now off to read the comments! 😊
Brachiator
@trollhattan:
No one knows whether this might happen. In both the US and UK, there are pundits who believe that some politicians have a magical ability to make some voters stay home. They say this kind of thing with certainty without a shred of data or past historical voter analysis to back them up.
Also, even when voter turnout is low, no one is willing to pay for a poll of non voters. There is little to no economic value in this. This creates a hole which can be filled with any degree of speculation.
That said, I find it interesting that some Republican voters took the time to come out and officially register their opposition to Trump. And although Trump may be able to intimidate GOP candidates for various offices, he cannot win over disaffected voters.
This may help the Democrats. Even a small advantage can make a difference.
Kathleen
@Kay: Good! Kind of surprised about Sherrod since Connie is a journalist! I signed up for fund raiser with Corey Booker in Cincy but didn’t go but I had already sent my donation which was the point. Security super tight.
trollhattan
@Kay:
If we have Republican voters giving Trump Ver. 2024 some 2012 edition Romney enthusiasm, things might just work out. Lord knows, his schtick should be past the sell-by date.
Jackie
@Miss Bianca: Last night’s FL primary was only for president, correct? I think FL’s primary for all other positions are later in the year, so I have no problemo of Democrats ditching the Presidential primary, and saving those resources for the General primary.
Harrison Wesley
Taking advantage of open thread (and the calling out of false equivalencies), I hope you all will indulge me in playing a favorite. (Having a shitty day and need the lift. Thanks.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cureb_tjZtU
Chetan Murthy
@TBone: that is some deeeeelish, innit ? Thank you for this!
Kathleen
@JustRuss: “The Random Dem Demonizer Machine”. Infomercials will be lit.
TBone
@Harrison Wesley: 💙😎
MattF
Salon seems to be one media outlet that is taking TFG’s cognitive decline seriously. Here’s a sample. I’m willing to pay attention to actual experts, although it’s reasonable to note that even experts indulge in wishful thinking— and there’s been a lot of that.
TBone
@Chetan Murthy: any old time, my friend! I relish this spirit-boosting and belly-laughing type of combo (serious subject with sharp wit tearing him to ribbons).
Today’s Digby posts are very meaningful, as well.
Jackie
@Baud:
This is more realistic.
Juju
@Frankensteinbeck: All that you mention is probably true, but the thing that is truly sad is that, as far as I can tell, Trump does not have any idea how a tariff works. He also apparently doesn’t own a dictionary to look up the definition of the word tariff.
Juju
@Ole Lurky: Pick my winning Powerball numbers first, then I’ll believe you.
Miss Bianca
@kindness: Wait, which bloodbath are we rooting for, again? The one where Trump gets wiped out, or the one where Trump gets wiped out? I’m so confused.
TBone
😆 GFY at hearing today. Issa took it on the chin 🤡
https://crooksandliars.com/2024/03/mccaul-apologizes-after-telling-darrell
GFY = go fuck yourself
wjca
What I want to hear, first or last, is “Biden takes Texas. Long coattails decimate state Republicans.” I really, really want to hear that. Especially a couple of days after the election, when the votes are in.
Chetan Murthy
@wjca: from your lips to the FSM’s al dente orrecchiete
trollhattan
@wjca:
This Texas?
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 4,437,099 54.76%
Democratic Beto O’Rourke 3,553,656 43.86%
“Known monster wins in landslide.”
wjca
@trollhattan:
Yup, exactly that Texas. I didn’t say I expected to hear it. Just that I want to.
Chetan Murthy
@wjca: For several cycles I gave a ton of $$ to Texas groups at all levels. Hoping that they’d turn Texas Blue. I’ve stopped doing that, and now send my money to places based on …. (drum roll) what all of you decide, here at B-J. B/c (like you) I no longer *expect* Texassssss to get decent. Ah well. But I still *hope* it will.
RaflW
Trump finished in Arizona with 77.9%. Given that Haley withdrew two weeks before the primary date, even with early & mail voting, I’d say Trump has persistent weaknesses. If one fifth of your most motivated voters – people have to be plugged in and make the effort to vote in primaries – aren’t that into you when you’re the top guy, some part of that 20%+ is going to:
– Stay home
– Vote 3rd party
– Maybe even vote Biden
wjca
@Chetan Murthy: Completely agree. Hard as it may be, gotta pick your battles, and do a serious cost/benefit analysis (with insufficient information, mostly).
trollhattan
@wjca: You and me both. They once gave us both Ann Richards and Molly Ivins. I want that Texas back.
CA not helping, since we’re exporting quite a number of disaffected citizens suffering from economic anxiety (“Have you SEEN the gas prices?”) and the inability to discuss politics at the workplace. I hope they all buy McMansions located within Houston’s ginormous floodplain.
Craig
@waspuppet: baseball writers understand what they’re talking about. There’s also a lot of sportswriters that are better at writing about politics than the political press.
different-church-lady
Everyone loves a bully until someone else beats him up.
Chetan Murthy
@trollhattan: I have a friend who had several friends decamp for (of course!) Austin a few years back. Then …. well, those crazy freezes came, the gas got shut off, and they realized they needed whole-house generators (actually *two*, b/c one might break down) and ….. after a couple of winters like that, …. (drum roll) they moved back to CA.
Turns out, living in a libertarian paradise isn’t so great! Who knew!?!?!!
Honus
@Miss Bianca: Jim Fair was a NY sportswriter in the thirties and forties. He told me fifty years ago, in all seriousness, that sportswriters got paid more because they actually had to know their subject.
Ken
@TBone: Tiedrich quotes:
If you take the 2020 Ohio vote and just reduce Trump’s total by 19%, he’s already under Biden’s vote. An actual transfer of 11% of those voters to Biden puts Biden at 55% of the vote.
Admittedly, I did similar calculations a few weeks back based on the South Carolina polling, and they also showed Biden winning that state. So let’s take this with cautious optimism.
karen marie
@TBone: I can’t believe Issa is still a rep. I thought he was in jail.
JML
@Ken: yeah, people will say things like they’re not voting or voting for Biden, but when the rubber meets the road, the % is almost always a lot lower than the polling. This is an area (dissatisfaction) where polling struggles to measure intensity well. they can pick up the signals, but don’t know how deep the feeling is.
Chetan Murthy
@trollhattan: Ann Richards FTW! Damn, she was great!
https://twitter.com/thetonymichaels/status/1770303904212828314
ETA: H/t Digby
Jackie
@RaflW:
And deliberately vote for a candidate who’s no longer running…
Taking the time to possibly have to stand in line for awhile just to vote in protest for a primary election, suggests to me, that those voters WILL vote in the General Election, but vote for (in their opinion) the lesser threat to their values. Which is hopefully, Democracy and freedoms.
Jackie
@Chetan Murthy: And just as – if not MORE – relevant today! That video needs to be shown at Dem rallies across the nation, and definitely in states where abortion is on the ballot. I’d love to see MVP use Ann Richards pro choice message as part of her spiel when she’s campaigning.
Chetan Murthy
@Jackie: Amen!
catothedog
This is correct for certain people – privileged whites.
The indifference and opportunism of this part of the population explains why Trump is running neck-neck with Biden, even when the crazies are less than 30%
Most things can be explained by this, including the news coverage. News and media rooms are the mouthpiece of privileged whites. So is organized religion.
Quadrillipede
I would be delighted by this and it would serve them right.
sab
@K-Mo: They are courtiers not reporters despite whatever tjey choose to call themselves.
sab
@Kathleen: Corporate media really screwed his wife. Connie Schultz went to see a Josh Mandel speech when he was running against Brown the first time. She didn’t write about it. She just went to watch. Mandel raised a huge stink about it and her employer (the Cleveland Plain Dealer) backed Mandel and not her. They started to really limit what she could write about (back to the “women’s beat”) and she left soon afterwards. Then she managed to get her writing nationally syndicated and eventually she got a job at Kent State teaching journalism.
randy khan
I think the resemblance between Sherrod Brown and Donald Trump stops around the time you finish counting the number of chromosomes in their cells.
I’m happy to say that I have been at several fundraisers for Senator Brown (going back to when he was Congressman Brown) and nobody could be less Trump like in demeanor, sincerity, or actual concern for the people who are his constituents. Also, he is infinitely funnier than Trump. No, let me correct that, he is genuinely funny, since anybody with the slightest sense of humor is infinitely funnier than Trump.
Ruckus
SFB is likely in big trouble. However.
Who else could the rethuglican party put up?
How many of them are likely to really see who and what SFB is?
They rallied behind him because he “has” money. The fact that he’s such a shit that he’s got himself into so much trouble is not obvious if you tend/absolutely do not believe he’s a lying sack of shit. IOW your own eyes.