Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

American History and Black History can not be separated.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

The choice is between normal and crazy.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Motown is Joe-Town!

The lights are all blinking red.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

This fight is for everything.

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Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Foreign Policy / Take the Fucking Win

Take the Fucking Win

by | 161 Comments

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I suspect we are going to have a rocky week ahead.

Live from New York, it’s Saturday Night!   Let’s try that again.  Live from New York, it’s Donnie’s first criminal trial.  For real!

News from NY: Judge Merchan has DENIED Trump’s motion for him to recuse.  Unsurprising, but great news nonetheless!

.

She really is Putin’s puppet, isn’t she?  She is talking about “Ukrainian Nazis”.

Though I do have to agree with her on one thing.  They should have been separate bills because Ukraine is being fucking attacked night after night after night.  I completely believe that Bibi launched his attack on Iran as a way to tie President Biden’s hands as he was this close to telling Bibi no more weapons until you stop what you’re doing, for real.

I hope this is an indication that Biden’s pressure on Bibi is working.

Take the win, Bibi.  Take the fucking win.

.

Such a relief to have competence on our side.

Josh Marshall (TPM)

The U.S. telegraphed more or less exactly what Iran was going to do via extremely good intelligence (reminiscent of the lead up to the invasion of Ukraine). It undoubtedly played a huge role bringing Jordan, Saudi Arabia and likely other Arab states into active and public armed action in defense of Israel. It positioned and deployed U.S. anti-ballistic destroyers and aerial assets to itself shoot down roughly a hundred of the estimated 300+ aerial devices Iran launched at Israel. Together, Israel, the U.S. and various allied Arab states took down 99% or more of all those devices. Iran launched a massive aerial bombardment and virtually none of it got through. And now the U.S. has managed to get Israel not to launch an immediate and inevitably escalatory retaliation.

It goes without saying that no administration works on its own. It comes to the game with the world’s most powerful military and major power status. It’s operating with Arab allies who have been gravitating toward a de facto anti-Iran alliance with Israel for years. And yet, anyone who knows anything about foreign or defense policy knows that most of it is all the endless number of things that can wrong and the one or two ways they can go right. Navigating the last week to this point today is a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House.

Open thread.

Reader Interactions

161Comments

  2. 2.

    Geminid

    The U.S. used several channels to communicate with Iran. According to Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu, one was Turkiye’s intelligence chief Ibrahim Filik, who relayed messages for CIA Director William Burns. Burns also conferred with Filik about the efforts to reach a ceasfire/hostage agreement, and Filik made a call to Hamas officials afterwards

    Ed. Turkiye and Iran have what seems to be a “frenemy” relationship. They are regional rivals, at odds in Syria and the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict, but they keep in touch.

    As for the Gaza war, Turkiye has been the 1st or 2nd biggest provider of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, along with the UAE. President Erdogan has roundly denounced Israel’s attacks on the Palestinians, but his government took it a step further last week when it blocked exports to Israel including steel.

    Turkiye accounts for 70% of the steel used in Israeli construction projects, so this could hurt. A Turkish consumer boycott of Israeli goods has already cut Israel’s exports to Turkiye almost in half.

  3. 3.

    pat

    Navigating the last week to this point today is a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House.

    Front page headline, ftfnyt, wapo????   I do not understand how anyone can think that things were better under tifg.

  4. 4.

    Lyrebird

    @Geminid: Interesting… and I am sure that some of the background work for this:

    It’s operating with Arab allies who have been gravitating toward a de facto anti-Iran alliance…

    isn’t happening in a vacuum.  Does it make everything better, no of course not!  But ol’ handsome Joe working the sandwich line and glad-handing around the world is probably not just him being chatty.  If anyone needs a soundtrack for the rest of us outside looking and calling in, “Pray for Peace” – Reba…

  5. 5.

    Soprano2

    I wonder if any of these Republicans realize that Russia is one of Iran’s biggest supporters, so by helping Russia they’re helping Iran. I wonder if anyone in the press will point this out in any of the stories about the aid to Israel and Ukraine. And yeah, I wouldn’t put it past Bibi to do something like that to keep the U.S. from cutting him off. What would have happened if the U.S. hadn’t shot so many of those drones down?

  6. 6.

    TBone

    I just can’t get het up about the Middle East, I trust our President to handle whatever comes down the pike with good judgment and an even-handed approach, until and unless that is no longer called for.  It seems like a rerun of my 70s childhood, I guess…jaded me.

    🎶

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IJB4TfET_I8

  7. 7.

    Old Man Shadow

    I don’t think Iran wants all out war and knew that most of their drones and missiles would be shot down. They just needed to respond to Israel’s strike on their embassy for political reasons. So, yeah, Bibi should take the win

    But I’m not entirely sure that Bibi doesn’t want a forever war of his own with Iran so he stays in power and out of jail.

  8. 8.

    Old Man Shadow

    @Soprano2: I don’t think they care. Russia is an authoritarian white ethnostate where the powerful and connected plunder the economy and live lavishly free from the law and the government caters to the Christian church in exchange for its complete loyalty. It’s a state that hates diversity, embraces machismo, and persecutes liberals, protestors, and gays.

    Russia is everything they want in the United States.

  9. 9.

    RaflW

    Nothing personal against political strategist Simon Rosenberg, but the GOP has already chosen Putin & Russia. I wish more pundits and esp. journos would accept this fact and report on it’s impact tuthfully.

    And that fact should be used to peel off milquetoast Rs like Romney to get them to admit that the only rational vote for old-school Republicans who still oppose Russian adventurism is Biden in November. Some magical ‘neither’ tick-mark will not do it.

  10. 10.

    JML

    Biden’s foreign policy has been pretty dang good. Helps to have experienced, smart professionals doing the work, but also a leader who doesn’t wildly overreact to everything that happens like a small child who needs a nap.

    international affairs is one of those areas where snap decisions are often dangerous and stupid.

  11. 11.

    rikyrah

    It’s time for the Democrats to stop tip toeing around this, and call these GOPers what they are.

    PUTIN’S FLUNKIES.

    NO UKRAINE FUNDING

    NO ISRAEL FUNDING

  12. 12.

    Jay C

    All quite true, but unfortunately, it’s more than likely the American public isn’t going to get the story presented to them as any sort of “win” for the Administration. Mainly because the bulk of the Republican Party will NEVER abandon their attempts to impose an “alternate reality” on the populace, and the bulk of the country’s media will never – usually in the name of “nonpartisanship” – call them out.

     

    @Geminid:

    yeah, that “frenemy” relationship wrt Iran, is, IMHO, what we should be having with them as well. Except that the Trump Admin went Full Bibi on making them into the World’s Designated Boogeyman, and killed off any chances of us having even the least bit of influence, or even (AFAICT) comunnication.

  13. 13.

    John S.

    What the fuck is the deal with Senator Fetterman? Does he get millions of dollars from AIPAC, or does he just have a massive blind spot with regard to Israel?

    I think it really demonstrates how it’s astonishing that we are not standing firmly with Israel. And there should never be any kinds of conditions on all that. When a nation can launch hundreds of drones towards Israel — I’m not going to be talking about conditions ever.

    I guess he missed the part about Iran launching a largely ceremonial attack in response to Israel bombing a diplomatic outpost and killing Iranian citizens.

    I’m sure he’d be totally ok with Iran bombing the Israeli embassy.

  14. 14.

    Attempted Chemistry

    Can we nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize? The man is an absolute master at every part of the office that doesn’t translate well to TV (and several parts that are).

  15. 15.

    smith

    Secrets and Laws@secretsandlaws 1h  Over the weekend, GOP leaders resoundingly condemned Ayatollah Khamenei & the Iranian regime for its reckless and unjustified act of war against the state of Israel.
    JK. They just attacked Biden.
    Old enough to remember when they thought “Blame America First” was a bad thing

  16. 16.

    Geminid

    @Lyrebird: These Arab countries are also forming an alliance to push through a Palestinian state alongside Israel. They were laying the groundwork while Israel, the US and the Europeans were content to manage the problem. Now, they are not trying to get a Palestinian state immediately; first they want a durable ceasefire that helps lay more groundwork. I think they have something like a five-year plan for the project, which could be realistic.

  18. 18.

    narya

    @Geminid: I am SO not any kind of expert on these things (or even particularly well-informed), but it has seemed, to my amateur eyes, that Joe has multiple lines of communication open and was working/communicating with other Arab countries. I cannot think that anyone except Putin wants all-out war in the Middle East.

  19. 19.

    Melancholy Jaques

    Say the obvious: the last week was a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House

    Unfortunately, the majority of Americans prefer a president who tweets mean things about the people they don’t like. And the political media prefer a president who causes crises, not one who avoids or resolves crises.

  21. 21.

    Jackie

    OT, but good news to share:

    “With a relatively clear path ahead of him in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has raised a humungous $7 million so far this cycle after an immense $3 million first quarter,” the New Jersey Globe reports.

    “Kim reported a massive $4.2 million cash-on-hand as of the end of March.”

    “He raised the money without taking any corporate PAC contributions.”

    It seems that NJ really wants to flush the old Democratic establishment down the toilet!😁

  22. 22.

    Old Man Shadow

    @TBone: Just the ones who disagreed with him on the attempted genocide of Ukraine. Meanwhile, he has looted upwards of 200 billion dollars for himself and stored it in various assets like the mob boss he is.

  26. 26.

    Jackie

    @Melancholy Jaques:

    the majority of Americans prefer a president who tweets mean things about the people they don’t like. And the political media prefer a president who causes crises, not one who avoids or resolves crises.

    Any valid facts to back  this up? This seems like people are saying-ism.

  28. 28.

    JML

    @Geminid: Hopefully they are able to work with reliable and credible Palestinian partners for building towards a Palestinian state, but it is a big step for some of the Arab states in the region to actually want this. They were perfectly happy for a long time to have chaos and mayhem, and did little or nothing to actually support the possibility for decades, if not actively undermining it.

    But now they don’t want Palestinian refugees and ex-pats flooding into their domains, so maybe they’re starting to take it seriously.

  29. 29.

    lowtechcyclist

    Re EmptyGee, I’d be perfectly fine with separate aid bills for Ukraine and Israel, so long as the Israel bill doesn’t get a floor vote until after the Ukraine bill does.

    But such a nice little Putin puppet you are, Rep. EmptyHead.

  30. 30.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @TBone: I wrote once before, Putin made a deal with the oligarchs: they could keep their money as long as they stay out of politics and pose no threat to him.

    The Panama Papers give clear insight into the steps taken to hide Putin’s wealth and the way he obtains it.

  31. 31.

    TBone

    @Mr. Bemused Senior: 👍💙 he is godlike in the eyes of the tankies and vatniks. Everyone else can clearly see they must be high as fucking kites to fall for that bullshit.  I used to regularly tell them so until I was banhammered.

  32. 32.

    lowtechcyclist

    Right now, I’m sitting on my back deck, enjoying a beautiful morning here in southern Maryland, cooling down after a bike ride.

    Midway through my ride, I stopped for awhile on the North Beach boardwalk which runs along the bay.  There’s a mini-pavilion right next to the water with benches and steps down to the sand.  Apparently I found the place where all the good-looking mommies take their kids on nice mornings.  I’ll have to stop there more often on morning rides.

    Being able to ride on weekdays now is sweet – a lot fewer cars on the roads.

  33. 33.

    cain

    @Geminid: It’s about goddam time. This is as much their mess. They need to tell Hamas and other Palestinian groups that if they want anything from them that they better get their act together.

  35. 35.

    Geminid

    @narya: A lot of nations we talk to in the Middle East talk to the Iranians. That would include CENTCOM members* Saudi Arabia and the UAE. And there were reports a couple years ago, when the US and EU countries were trying to revive the JCPOA to curb Iran’s nuclear program, that US and Iranian officials met face-to-face in Oman. They might have met there last week for all I know, but what happens in Oman stays in Oman.

    Burns’ use of the Turkish channel is significant in that this would not have happened a year ago. US/Turkish relations were strained much of the last decade, but they have improved a lot since last July, when Presidents Biden and Erdogan met on the sidelines of the Nato summit in Vilnius.

  36. 36.

    Matt McIrvin

    @John S.: Probably echoing his constituents, much like Ilhan Omar is reflecting hers. Big tents can be troublesome in this way.

  37. 37.

    cain

    @Jackie:

    It seems that NJ really wants to flush the old Democratic establishment down the toilet!😁

    It’s about goddam time, our political morass is as much their mess as the GOP! They need to tell the old school Dems that if they want anything that they better get their act together.

  38. 38.

    TBone

    My first whiff of new mown grass today.  Ahhhh!  The novelty will wear off soon, but for now it’s a very sweet reminder of good things coming.  What a beautiful day for a criminal trial to begin!

  40. 40.

    cain

    @JML: I think they are enjoying stability and the general no-drama. I reckon their economies are doing a lot better and the population is calm.

  41. 41.

    Sure Lurkalot

    Marge! Look at Me! Israel! Antisemitic! Ukranian Nazis! Drink!

    What a fucking bought idiot. I hope a house falls on her.

  42. 42.

    rikyrah

    @lowtechcyclist:

    I’d be perfectly fine with separate aid bills for Ukraine and Israel, so long as the Israel bill doesn’t get a floor vote until after the Ukraine bill does.

     

    not me. I want them in the same bill. You want Israel funding, then gimme my Ukraine funding.

  43. 43.

    cain

    @TBone: I can’t help but think what a joke these people have made of both communism and socialism here and in every where else. Oligarchs have managed to corrupt the entire system. Lenin is probably dumbstruck. The first mistake was having Stalin in charge. Karl Marx probably wants to fuck people up.

  50. 50.

    Ruckus

    @Old Man Shadow:

    But I’m not entirely sure that Bibi doesn’t want a forever war of his own with Iran so he stays in power and out of jail.

    Not all up on the why he’d end up in jail but it seems to me to make pretty much the most sense I’ve seen about the situation.

    Some politicians/leaders are selfish bastards who think only of what benefits them. Shitforbrains comes to mind, and I’m sure he’s not the only person that thinks that way. Especially some of whom have been in power and really, really like the concept of being at least relatively untouchable.

  51. 51.

    Geminid

    @JML: In 2002, the Arab League made an important decision. They ended the “The Three No’s” policy: No to Negotiations, No to Recognition of Israel, No to Peace. The League called for a process including direct negotiations for normalization and the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel and not in place of it.

    Between preperations for Bush’s stupid and destructive Iraq war and the equally stupid and destructive suicide bombing campaign of the Second Intifada, most people forgot about this but the Arabs did not. The recent normalization of relations between Israel and Morocco, Bahrain and the UAE revived the process, and were (I thought) the most promising developments this century. At the time, many people discounted the value of the so-called “Abraham Accords” because Trump and Netanyahu were two of the parties, but these initiatives had been in the works before either crappy leader had their current jobs.

  52. 52.

    Chief Oshkosh

    China, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea should be on the list that includes Trump, Russia, Iran, Hamas

  54. 54.

    Baud

    @Geminid:

    Kind of makes we wonder where things would be if Hillary had won and we still had the Iran deal, in addition to the things you mentioned.

  55. 55.

    brendancalling

    @John S.: For someone who (now) shuns progressives, Fetterman seems to be putting on a show about how “non-progressive” he is on Israel.

    I campaigned hard for him, knocking on doors in some pretty tough Philly neighborhoods, but I will have to re-evaluate when he comes up again.

  57. 57.

    sdhays

    @Baud: Gosh, where would we be if Gore had been allowed to win? So many fires internationally (and domestically) were started due to the actions (or failures to act) of his opponent.

  59. 59.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Jay C: The RV got a flat tire, so a friend is taking him on a cruise on their private yacht to help him in his time of need. You understand, purely because of their deep and abiding friendship.

  62. 62.

    Matt McIrvin

    @John S.: I suspect that online discussion in liberal spaces vastly underestimates Democratic voter support for Israel. It’s another one of those “won’t see it if you are Very Online” things.

  63. 63.

    Geminid

    @Baud: Things also might have been different if Al Gore had been President. Bush’s disastrous Iraq war had a huge opportunity cost on top of its direct costs.

  64. 64.

    John S.

    @brendancalling: His antics these past few months (like waving an Israeli flag in protestor’s faces) certainly seems like a theatrical performance.

    I just wonder what is animating him.

  67. 67.

    E.

    @Another Scott: Upon reading this I uttered a certain prayer and immediately realized I no longer can quote that line about reading an obituary with great pleasure.

  69. 69.

    smith

    Lisa Rubin@lawofruby 56m. NEW: While arguing for the admission of tweets and social media posts evocative of Trump’s pressure campaign on witnesses, the DA’s office drops this: “Shortly, we will be seeking an order to show cause why Defendant should not be held in contempt” for violating the gag order.

    I am really glad to see this. It was worrisome that Merchan and Bragg seemed to be ignoring TFGA’s blatant violations of the gag order, not a good strategy if they want to keep him in line during the trial. As Ben Meiselas says about Trump, give him an inch, and he takes your life.

  71. 71.

    TBone

    I’ma trust Gisele Fetterman for now.  She’s a fucking badass and until she says different, I’ll support my Dem Senators.

  74. 74.

    MisterForkbeard

    @brendancalling: Well, we definitely can’t put in a replacement Justice if that’s the case. Mitch McConnell has informed me that we never replace a justice during an election year, after all.

  76. 76.

    Geminid

    @rikyrah: I agree. Separating the two bills is unnecessary and could be problematic.

    And I wonder if Johnson can separate them, as weak a Speaker as he is. He could waste more time trying though, which evidently is his goal.

  77. 77.

    Soprano2

    @Melancholy Jaques: You shouldn’t repeat Republican talking points. They’re the ones who keep saying that most Americans support TFG, but actual elections show that isn’t true, because he lost the popular vote twice. Most of the voters where I live support him, but where I live isn’t America.

  78. 78.

    frosty

    @TBone: Good point about Giselle. I should probably call Fetterman’s office and tell him nothing for Israel until Ukraine gets air defense.

  82. 82.

    Frankensteinbeck

    It goes without saying that no administration works on its own.

    It doesn’t, though.  My impression is that a lot, maybe the majority of Americans believe that America is the only real actor in the world.  At best, any other nation only acts in reaction to the US.

  83. 83.

    Jackie

    @smith: I’m actually torn about that. Michael Cohen spent the wknd on various cable programs dissing TIFG. I think it’s hard to punish TIFG without placing gag orders on witnesses who enjoy the publicity a bit too much. 🤷🏼‍♀️

    I generally like Cohen, but he needs to STFU until after the trial, IMO.

  84. 84.

    MisterForkbeard

    @smith: I misread this as “the prosecutors are arguing that Trump shouldn’t be help in contempt” and was very annoyed until I re-read your comment a couple of times.

    Yes. Make Trump’s legal team explain why clear violations of court rules should be ignored. Including things like “the witness list was supposed to be secret to prevent intimidation, but also leaked to the public 5 minutes after Trump’s team had it”

  85. 85.

    Ruckus

    @Jackie:

    As an old I can see that for many people they do not want to move forward, one reason being that they are losing that thing they like – power, because they are getting on towards their last hurrah – and they know it. And all those middle aged kids are taking over……

    Sure some old farts are still in the game but they don’t play at the speed they used to. And it’s not all olds, president Joe still has game. But many do not. I’m not all that far behind Joe age wise and while I’m still rather active, many my age and older are not. It is the way things work, learn, do, slow down, stop.

  88. 88.

    MisterForkbeard

    @John S.: To be fair, it’s a pretty big deal that Iran attacked Israel. I like how Biden is handling it, and de-escalating is clearly the best choice here.

    I also think Israel should have funding for defense. The Gaza war isn’t defense. But this kind of thing is. Problem is, Israel keeps wasting the Defense items on semi-genocidal attempts to kill Palestinians. If they run out or low, then they’re fucked. So we keep refilling their arms.

    Netanyahu is the real asshole here. I don’t blame Fetterman for supporting Israel at all, though I’m annoyed he’s stepping into Republican framing.

  89. 89.

    TBone

    @MisterForkbeard: 💙💙💙

    Netanyahu is the real asshole here. I don’t blame Fetterman for supporting Israel at all, though I’m annoyed he’s stepping into Republican framing.

  91. 91.

    Jackie

    @MisterForkbeard: Too bad! McTurtle isn’t The Boss anymore!

    Plus, he broke his own rule when RBG died WEEKS before the presidential election. 😡

    The current Majority Leader will laugh in Mitch’s face as he holds hearings to elect Thomas’ replacement 😂

  94. 94.

    WaterGirl

    @MisterForkbeard:

    including things like “the witness list was supposed to be secret to prevent intimidation, but also leaked to the public 5 minutes after Trump’s team had it”

    Are you saying that actually happened, or is that intended as a hypothetical example?

  95. 95.

    suzanne

    @John S.: Fetterman has been a big disappointment on this issue. At this point, if you don’t want to condition aid to Israel on the incredibly baseline expectation of not committing war crimes with stuff we give them, I think you’re either bad or corrupted. We’ll see who runs against him in the primary.

  96. 96.

    JML

    @cain:

    I think they are enjoying stability and the general no-drama. I reckon their economies are doing a lot better and the population is calm.

    I think this definitely has some impact. They want international investment, they want trade partners, and they don’t want the instability of terror groups. The old “free trade stops wars” trope is a little too simplistic, but it’s also not entirely wrong.

    But they’ll need something like a rejuvenated Palestinian Authority that has credibility with normie Palestinians to make it work. So long as extremists like Hamas are the ones speaking for Palestinians the cycle of horrible will continue. Same is true for Israel: so long as lunatics like Netanyahu stay in charge, disaster will ensue.

    I hope Israeli elections come soon, Bibi is sent packing, and the fragile coalition that kept him in power is fractured beyond redemption.

  97. 97.

    TBone

    @StringOnAStick: indeed admirable.  But I’m accustomed to this sort of bravado, it’s used in DelCo as a matter of course. If you ain’t got game, you ain’t shit!

  99. 99.

    Old School

    @Alce_e _ ardillo:

    John Oliver promised to buy him a new one if he resigned…

    John Oliver’s offer to Clarence Thomas had a 30-day window, so if Clarence resigns now, he doesn’t get the RV.

  100. 100.

    TBone

    @suzanne: you have just inspired me to open my mail ballot and vote even harder for all the Dems.  John Fetterman is an honorable person on all fronts that matter (bad publicity from the Hill doesn’t curry favor with me – he’s not in charge of Israel policy as far as I know).  A sound byte can bite me.  He’s doing good work for my Commonwealth and I’m watching what he does, not what he says.

  101. 101.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: I would agree that Israel attacked Iranian IRGC officers most recently, and that was Iran’s justification for Saturday’s attack. I don’t consider that an attack on Iran, though.

    Iran and Israel have been attacking each other for decades now, but Iran mainly attacks through surrogates. They also used surrogates to shoot plenty of rockets at the US Embassy in Baghdad, which I keep in mind when I hear them complain about their consulate in Damascus.

  103. 103.

    John S.

    @WaterGirl: I don’t understand how basic facts and timelines continue to get muddied in real time.

    I was shocked when Israel attacked the Iranian diplomatic outpost because I knew there would be repercussions. I was also shocked that Iran showed restraint with their largely symbolic retaliation.

    I just don’t get how Israel keeps getting a free pass for everything they do.

  106. 106.

    WaterGirl

    @Geminid: The Iranian embassy is considered Iranian soil, which is why I said an attack on Iran.

    If someone takes out a US embassy with some sort of strike, I will call that an attack on the US.

  107. 107.

    John S.

    @Geminid: Why does Iran get held to a higher standard than Israel?

    It seems like your argument is that since Iran attacks Israel through proxies, it’s ok for Israel to openly attack an Iranian diplomatic outpost.

  108. 108.

    WaterGirl

    @John S.: Bibi knew exactly what the was doing with the strike on the embassy.  He started it, and I believe that Iran had to respond.

    That doesn’t make me a supporter of Iran.  But Israel was the aggressor here, and I will not be convinced otherwise.

  109. 109.

    rikyrah

    @WaterGirl:

    @John S.: Bibi knew exactly what the was doing with the strike on the embassy.  He started it, and I believe that Iran had to respond.

    That doesn’t make me a supporter of Iran.  But Israel was the aggressor here, and I will not be convinced otherwise.

     

    Spitting nothing but FACTS!

  112. 112.

    WaterGirl

    @Melancholy Jaques: Sarcasm is still good!

    Personally, I could not tell that your comment was sarcasm.  It merely seemed to me that you had come to believe what you were describing.

    Happy to know that wasn’t the case!

  113. 113.

    John S.

    @WaterGirl: You will get no argument from me. I am tired of all the tit for tat bullshit that goes on in the Middle East, because after millennia of wars and grievances, it’s too easy to keep blaming the “other side” for one’s actions.

    At what point does moral relativism stop entering the equation, and does Israel get held accountable for wrongdoing in the same way that we would hold Russia, Iran or any other country accountable for their actions?

    ETA: I’m Jewish, so this shit irritates me beyond belief. I want Israel to be so much better than what it has become.

  114. 114.

    Geminid

    @John S.: The IRGC general was using the annex to plot out the next phase of its offensive against Israel, with 6 other IRGC officers and 5 militia officers. Diplomatic facilities are protected so that diplomtic activities can be carried out safely, not to shield people planning murder and mayhem. As far as I am concerned, the only thing bad about that strike is that two civilians were killed. The 13 soldiers had it coming.

  115. 115.

    Baud

    @John S.:

    Neither we nor probably any other country has ever been fully consistent in enforcing norms of behavior.  The US itself would probably be subject to more sanctions if it were possible.

  117. 117.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: It was not the embassy that was hit, it was the building next door which Iran claims was its consulate. There is some technical dispute as to whether it qualified as a consulate, but the Israelis decided that whatever its status, Iran violated that first by using it to plan a campaign of attacks on Israel..

  118. 118.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud:

    Neither we nor probably any other country has ever been fully consistent in enforcing norms of behavior.

    Well of course not.  There’s a lot going on in the world, we can’t police all of it, and inevitably some countries we need to work with due to X will also be doing abhorrent things with respect to Y.  There’s no way to be a purity pony in international relations.

    But OTOH, there’s a much more limited number of nations that we provide aid to.  As has already been said upthread, we need to hold ourselves to the extremely low bar of not providing arms and money to countries involved in war crimes and genocide.

  119. 119.

    John S.

    @Baud: Yeah, the old we need to remove the plank from our own eye before worrying about the splinter in someone else’s eye.

    Still, the asymmetry of standards is so stark right now when looking at what is going on in Israel and Ukraine. I would imagine this will get worse heaven forbid China decides to start some shit with Taiwan.

  120. 120.

    John S.

    @Geminid: Would you be making the same distinctions if Iran hit a building adjacent to an Israeli consulate and killed a couple of civilians in addition to military personnel?

    Somehow, I highly doubt that.

  122. 122.

    MisterForkbeard

    @WaterGirl: Something like it happened. We’ll never know exactly sure sure.

    The witness list was ‘obtained’ late last week, and not officially announced from what I remember. News Orgs got it soon after Trump’s team was given it. Trump isn’t supposed to be talking about the witnesses at all, though over the weekend he started trying to intimidate them. It’s probably not clear cut at all from a legal standpoint.

    Apparently the prosecution wants to fine him… $3000 for the weekend intimidation. And a reminder that he could go to jail.

  123. 123.

    Eduardo

    @Matt McIrvin: I would think so, too.  That Netanyahu is a major, major asshole who is doing a huge disservice to the Israel democracy, good governance and security; who has tried to handicap both the Obama and Biden admins; who has supported the insane settlement policy in the West Bank; and who has played by the brutal rules of Mideast conflicts does not change the fact that Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Syria and their patron Iran are way way worse than he is and also fanatically enemies of the United States.   If you are in this camp you are way less vocal than the “uncommitted” camp.

  124. 124.

    Geminid

    @John S.: That depends on what Israel was using that building for. If they used their consulate in Baku to plan out a bombing campaign in Iran the Iranians would be justified in hitting it.

    I think the Azrebaijani government would not allow that use though; they’d at least tell the Israelis to use another non-diplomatic venue. The Syrian government did not do that in Damascus because they are in cahoots with Iran.

  126. 126.

    John S.

    @Geminid: Right. And then Israel would claim they weren’t using the building for those purposes (naturally).

    Look, if you want to be a moral relativist when it comes to Israel, that’s your prerogative. I’m not here to judge you. Just at least be honest about it.

  127. 127.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @StringOnAStick:

    I’d really be shocked if anyone hear chose not to vote because of a comment, sarcastic or otherwise. That would be way beyond touchy. I don’t even know what to call it.

  128. 128.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @WaterGirl:

    To be honest, I’m surprised anyone took it literally. Maybe I should have prefaced it with “But in this Ohio diner . . .”

    It certainly does not read like a Republican talking point, as one person apparently believed.

  129. 129.

    Geminid

    The identities and biographies of the IRGC officers have been well reported. Iranian eulogies of the top general credited him with helping Hamas stage its October 7 attack, so they knew what he did and why the Israelis killed him.

    As for the building, the reporting is murky but one story is that they tried to buy the building but two families who owned the 3rd and 4th floor wouldn’t sell. That may have affected its status as a consulate, as they were only renting the bottom two floors and the basement. This will get hashed out in coming days, and eventually on the pages of international law journals.

  130. 130.

    the pollyanna from hell

    @Melancholy Jaques: discouraged people don’t choose to be discouraged. But they are still less likely to vote. My fragility is not reduced by you judging  me unlikely to be fragile. I predict that I can find someone in such a large audience more fragile than any arbitrary limit of fragility that I establish.

  131. 131.

    Geminid

    @John S.: It would not matter what Israel claimed afterwards. I don’t take what any country claims at face value.

    And as for the charge of moral relativism, I think I am as consistent as you. And as honest, for that matter.

  132. 132.

    MinuteMan

    @Old Man Shadow: ​

    @Old Man Shadow: ​
     

    I don’t think Iran wants all out war and knew that most of their drones and missiles would be shot down. They just needed to respond to Israel’s strike on their embassy for political reasons. So, yeah, Bibi should take the win

    Could well have been a shot-over-the-bow to let the Israelis know that Iran is prepared to make things hot if the Israelis get too provocative.

  133. 133.

    Geminid

    @MinuteMan: Iran says they have plenty more where those missiles and drones came from, and they’re not bluffing. They probably did not send their best stuff on Saturday, either.

  134. 134.

    the pollyanna from hell

    @the pollyanna from hell: here in Chattooga County I listen to Republicans talking to each other. They absolutely do repeat nonsense very close to what you said, especially if it implies Democrats are morally bankrupt idiots.

  135. 135.

    Tim in SF

    From live coverage:

    Trump appears to be sleeping. His head keeps dropping down and his mouth goes slack.
    —Maggie Haberman

    Can you imagine the week of noise in the media of Biden fell asleep anywhere other than his bed?

  137. 137.

    WaterGirl

    @Melancholy Jaques: Any kind of clue helps.  Some use //  Some us e/s  Some might add “of course, the media might say”.

    Don’t sweat it!  Just be aware that if someone reads something and has no idea who you are, sarcasm doesn’t read as sarcasm if they are taking what you wrote at face value.

  138. 138.

    the pollyanna from hell

    @Geminid: I am still camping on my 3 acres, finding my way to a building plan that expresses my spirit. Bare twigs so depressing in winter, mowed lawn almost as bad. If I just cut back the bramble vines, and thickets of bushes and baby giants, the oh-so-natural-looking sparse meadow has the same biomass distribution as mowed lawn yet cheers me up. Evergreens are slower to catch up, but young lolly-pines have such vibrant colors I look forward to giving them every encouragement.

  146. 146.

    Balconesfault

    @pat: “anyone who knows anything about foreign or defense policy knows that most of it is all the endless number of things that can wrong and the one or two ways they can go right. Navigating the last week to this point today is a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House.”

    Another reason for the media to hate this White House.

  147. 147.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Ksmiami: ​
     

    Nope, I do occasionally get down to that end of the county, especially for the Christmas lights at Annmarie Gardens, but I’m more towards the north end.

  148. 148.

    WaterGirl

    PSA: If you’re interested in the Einstein zoom this Wednesday at 8 pm Eastern, send me an email to RSVP and get the zoom link.

  149. 149.

    gvg

    @Geminid: No. sorry but Enemies claim that kind of thing is happening all the time. It may be true, but it often hasn’t been. The only thing that has worked is a flat, embassies are to be left alone.

    Kind of ironic….Iran protesting an attack on an embassy. For the young, I am referring to the Iranian taking our embassy hostage in the 70’s.

  150. 150.

    Geminid

    @gvg: Like I said, Iranian proxies have fired plenty of rockets at the US Embassy in Iraq.

    As for the bunch that Israel killed in Damascus, there is plenty of independent reporting on who they were and their histories, at least for the top commanders. And since Iran is in the middle of a hot proxy war with Israel right now, there’s not much doubt as to what the meeting was about.

  151. 151.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid:

    Maybe it’s just me, but I find it disconcerting that it matters what they were talking about in the alleged consulate.  First of all, how would one know other than by spying? Second, these days a single conversation can be taking place at dozens of locations at once, thanks to Zoom and MS Teams meetings; the ‘where’ of a conversation is rather iffy anymore.

    I would think that either a location would be diplomatically off limits or it wouldn’t be.  Maybe possibly allowing certain people in might remove that protection.  But if the protection of a facility on diplomatic grounds can be disregarded due to the nature of the conversation inside, that seems to me to be a bit flimsy in this day and age.

  152. 152.

    Martin

    Boy, I wouldn’t say that was noise and bluster. Israel benefitted from the US and the UK and Jordan and Saudi Arabia coming to their defense. That concerted effort resulted in noise and bluster, but the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil sure as shit wasn’t _intended_ to be noise and bluster. But Israel keeps their western support.

    So, the iterated prisoners dilemma game is often used as a model for foreign relations and gives a way to test out different approaches to see what produces the best results. Lot of competitions have led to 4 rules that the best approaches all share:

    1. Avoid unnecessary conflict by cooperating as long as your opponent does;
    2. If your opponent betrays you without provocation, respond in kind — once;
    3. Then forgive the betrayal and cooperate again;
    4. Be clear and predictable. That is, always follow steps 1, 2 and 3, so your opponent comes to know how you act and can plan on that basis.

    So why do we broadcast our actions? #4. Why do we do a single proportionate response? #2-#3 Why should we not stay in opposition perpetually and cooperate when opportunities arise? #1. Generally speaking US foreign policy does all of this (and has for decades). Iran even did this here – broadcasting their intentions, saying there would be no further actions, etc. Israel considering a response starts to break 2. Iran said this was a response to the embassy attack. Israel knows they did the embassy attack. This should settle the matter. That’s why Biden is saying to take the win – Iran didn’t get any material damage proportionate to the embassy attack but said this was the entirety of the response. Israel got away with one. They should do #3 and return to principle #1 now.

    Trumps instinct is to break all of these. Bibi’s not as bad, but not good either.

  153. 153.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: What if it was spying? The US used similar methods when we went after Bin Laden and scores of other fighters. Everybody spies on everybody, especially in that region, and when they can the Israelis keep especially close tabs on Quds Force leaders in Syria. These were the 3rd and 4th IRGC generals Israel has killed in Syria in the past year.

    But if you think Israel somehow misidentified these soldiers, there is plenty of reporting in independent media as to who they were. Al Arabiya and Al Jazeera would be good sources on this

    And these people don’t talk on Zoom. Phone conversations are too easy to intercept. The safest way to plan sensitive operations is face to face. The only question I have is, did they think they were safe in the consulate, or did they believe they got in without the Israelis knowing. One report is that one of the Iranians was late and missed the strike. There may be a story there.

  154. 154.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid:

    What if it was spying? The US used similar methods when we went after Bin Laden and scores of other fighters.

    Bin Laden was in an embassy or consulate when we turned him into fish food? I missed that.  I’m specifically talking about facilities that are normally regarded as inviolable due to being an embassy or consulate, and what the standards are for determining that that inviolability doesn’t apply.

  155. 155.

    horatius

    @Baud: A criminal referral of his daughter for price gouging on essential drugs by a Senate Committee should do the trick.

  156. 156.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid: ​
     

    But if you think Israel somehow misidentified these soldiers, there is plenty of reporting in independent media as to who they were.

    I didn’t suggest that at all. One thing I mentioned was that I could see how letting certain persons into an embassy or consulate could potentially undo the assumption of its inviolability.

    The ONLY issue I raised was that it seems to be a stretch to be able to attack an embassy or consulate based on nothing other than the conversations allegedly taking place inside.

  157. 157.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: I think Israel has very different standards than you. But you are an American living in a very different security situation. You might think differently if you were an Israeli and knew people those guys wanted to kill, or had already helped kill.

  158. 158.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: Israel can do whatever it wants, but then it needs to be held accountable for the consequences of its actions, rather than haughtily demanding the US, the West & the Sunni Arab states bail it out of its strategic stupidity.

    Any one of the Israels actions in its shadow war w/ Iran (not its conduct in Gaza or the WB) could be justified at a tactical level, but what strategy do these tactical tit for tats serve? “Mowing the Iranian grass” in Syria, Lebanon & occasionally Iran itself? 10/7 has shown just how unsustainable that “strategy” has been w/ the Palestinians in Gaza (of which Hamas’ continued hold on power there was largely downstream of conscious Israeli “strategy” for Gaza). I think the entire Israeli theory of deterrence is bankrupt & no longer viable, when war crimes such as collective punishment are no longer committed to set an example to Israel’s adversaries but instead to satisfy bloodlust for revenge.

    Furthermore, Israeli diplomatic missions surely have played roles in supporting Israel’s shadow war w/ Iran, including the targeted assassinations & industrial sabotage w/in Iran. Would Iran then be justified in targeting Israeli diplomatic outposts? Western Embassies in Kyiv surely are deeply involved in supporting the Ukrainian war effort? Would Russia then be justified in bombing these embassies? Would Ukraine be justified in targeting the Iranian & NK embassies in Moscow?

    You mentioned that Iranian backed militias had a habit of launching rockets at the US embassy in Baghdad. What has been the US’ response, even under GWB? Targeting those Iranian backed militias. The US did not bomb the Iranian embassy there. Assassinating Suleimani at Baghdad Airport was already widely considered a reckless escalation, & only Iranian strategic patience (& the Trump Administration’s decision not to retaliate against the Iranian retaliation launched at the major US base in Iraq) prevented a regional blow up right there. Had the US assassinated Suleimani by demolishing the Iranian embassy in Baghdad, I don’t think a regional war could have been prevented, & the US would have had no support for this war.

    Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment is fond of saying that both the US & the PRC share the trait of being strategic narcissists, as great powers tend to be. Honestly, I think neither could hold a candle to Israel in this regard.

  159. 159.

    Geminid

     

     

    @YY_Sima Qian: I followed this affair as closely as I could and I did not catch the part where Israel was “haughtily demanding” that the US and the Arab states bail it out. I thought they bailed Israel out because it wasn’t in their interests for Iran to successfully attack Israel, despite how Israel invited the attack.

    And I bet the Arab governments were a lot less bothered by the Damascus strike than you are. Iran has already crippled Lebanon, and now they are trying to subvert Jordan. That’s not a problem for you and its not a problem for me, but its a big problem for them. It’s no wonder KSA and Jordan helped defend Israel, even under these circumstances.

    It seems to me the Syrian government has a responsibilty to keep other nations’ diplomatic facilities from being used to organize large scale attacks on neighboring states. If Bashar Assad wants to let Iran operate its “Axis of Resistance” out of a diplomatic annex, he is to blame if it turns out poorly for those Iranian operators..

  160. 160.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: These demands are made through proxies in the US, be they politicians, lobbyists, think tankers or big monied fundraisers.

    Yes, Sunni Arab governments lost no sleep over the strike on the Iranian consulate, because it is Israel that has to deal w/ the blow back, not them. They would love for Israel &/or the US to cut Iran down a few notches for them. However, I don’t recall any of them ever going after Iranian diplomatic missions.

    There is a reason the Vienna Convention exists. Israel’s predicament (some of it self-created) does not give it a pass for violating international law. Unless Israel is happy to live in a world where there is no international law. Perhaps it is.

  161. 161.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: I think the US and other nations defended Israel because it helped contain this conflict, not because of private lobbying.

    And I do not generalize from this matter as you do. Syria is the only country where this has happened or would happen. Assuming this was in fact a Consulate, Syria and Iran abused the Vienna Convention before Israel did.

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